南方红壤水土流失区土地利用动态变化——以长汀河田盆地区为例

福建省长汀县曾是我国南方红壤地区水土流失最严重的县份之一,经过20多年的艰辛努力,长汀已成为中国水土流失治理的典范.采用遥感技术和景观格局分析技术,基于1988、1998、2004、2009和2011年的遥感影像,对长汀县水土流失最为严重的河田盆地区进行土地利用动态变化检测与景观格局变化分析.结果表明,研究区在这23a间的土地利用发生了很大变化,其中最主要的特征就是以针叶林为主的林地面积的快速增长和地表裸土面积的大幅下降.景观分析表明,水土流失治理新增的小块林地正逐渐形成连片分布,而裸土面积在大幅减少的同时,其斑块也趋于破碎.总的看来,这23a间的水土流失治理已使得研究区的生态明显趋于好转.     

Multiple Methods in the Study of Driving Forces of Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Case Study of SE Kajiado District,Kenya

This landscape-scale study combines analysis of multitemporal satellite imagery spanning 30 years and information from field studies extending over 25 years to assess the extent and causes of land use and land cover change in the Loitokitok area, southeast Kajiado District, Kenya. Rain fed and irrigated agriculture, livestock herding, and wildlife and tourism have all experienced rapid change in their structure, extent, and interactions over the past 30 years in response to a variety of economic, cultural, political, institutional, and demographic processes. Land use patterns and processes are explored through a complementary application of interpretation of satellite imagery and case study analysis that explicitly addresses the local–national spatial scale over a time frame appropriate to the identification of fundamental causal processes. The results illustrate that this combination provides an effective basis for describing and explaining patterns of land use and land cover change and their root causes.     

Mapping Tension: Remote Sensing and the Production of a Statewide Land Cover Map

This article examines the process by which remotely sensed land cover maps work to both simplify and complicate landscapes. The central argument is not merely that the construction of land cover maps is complex, but that the points of complexity often arise through the process of trying to simplify. In other words, the forces of complexity are intimately connected to the forces of simplicity and vice versa. This article takes as a case study the production of WISCLAND, (Wisconsin Initiative for Statewide Cooperation on Landscape Analysis and Data), a statewide land cover map of Wisconsin derived from remote sensing data and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) technologies and proceeds by analysis of mapping methodology, practice, and representation. In addition to the development of a more nuanced critique of the use of land cover maps, it facilitates the possibility for a constructive dialogue between remote sensing practitioners and the critical GIS community.     

Agricultural Legacies in the Great Basin Alter Vegetation Cover, Composition, and Response to Precipitation

The land-use history of an ecosystem influences current structure and possibly response to modern disturbances and stresses. In semiarid systems the nature of land-use legacies is poorly understood, confounding efforts to establish sustainable management approaches. We compare previously cultivated and non-cultivated lands in Owens Valley, California, where cultivation once extended to 34% of the valley floor but was largely discontinued by 1940, to measure the influence of past disturbance on modern vegetation. We combined historic maps of cultivated and non-cultivated land with an extensive vegetation survey, historic aerial photographs, and satellite measurements of vegetation response to precipitation variability to examine the importance of land-use history in determining the sensitivity of vegetation to annual variations in precipitation. Remote sensing analysis showed that total plant cover on previously cultivated lands was lower and fluctuations in cover were marginally more dependent on precipitation compared with plant cover on non-cultivated lands. We then compared modern plant assemblages within cultivated and non-cultivated land to determine if compositional differences could explain the current patterns of vegetation cover. We found lower species richness on previously cultivated parcels, and higher frequency and cover of perennial grasses on non-cultivated lands. Therefore, we showed differences in land-cover patterns, isolated a mechanism that could account for the differences (species differences), and developed a method for remotely analyzing land regions that have experienced historic anthropogenic disturbance.     

新区开发建设及其生态效应——以雄安新区为例

雄安新区自2017年设立为国家级新区以来,已进行了大量的开发建设,但迄今尚未见对开发建设所产生的生态效应的研究报道。因此,选取2017年和2020年的Landsat 8影像,分别代表雄安新区未开始建设和建设3年后的两个时期来对此进行对比。利用遥感空间信息技术反演出2017—2020年雄安新区开发建设以来主要地表覆盖类型的变化,并采用遥感生态指数(RSEI)对这些地表覆盖类型变化产生的生态效应进行评估。结果表明：(1)雄安新区2017—2020年间的开发建设已使建筑用地面积增加了60.01 km²,水体面积增加了8.95 km²,植被面积减少了69.29 km²。雄安新区现阶段的开发建设主要集中在区内的容城县和雄县,而安新县的开发强度较小。(2)雄安新区2017—2020年间开发建设的生态效应体现在生态改善面积大于退化面积,生态等级良好以上的面积占比有所提升。因此,新区的生态质量总体略有上升,RSEI均值从0.668上升到0.677。但3个县的表现不一,雄县和安新县的生态有所提升,而容城县则略有下降。(3)雄安新区虽经开发...     

Attribution of seasonal leaf area index trends in the northern latitudes with “optimally” integrated ecosystem models

Significant increases in remotely sensed vegetation indices in the northern latitudes since the 1980s have been detected and attributed at annual and growing season scales. However, we presently lack a systematic understanding of how vegetation responds to asymmetric seasonal environmental changes. In this study, we first investigated trends in the seasonal mean leaf area index (LAI) at northern latitudes (north of 30°N) between 1982 and 2009 using three remotely sensed long‐term LAI data sets. The most significant LAI increases occurred in summer (0.009 m² m^?2 year^?1, p < .01), followed by autumn (0.005 m² m^?2 year^?1, p < .01) and spring (0.003 m² m^?2 year^?1, p < .01). We then quantified the contribution of elevating atmospheric CO₂ concentration (eCO₂), climate change, nitrogen deposition, and land cover change to seasonal LAI increases based on factorial simulations from 10 state‐of‐the‐art ecosystem models. Unlike previous studies that used multimodel ensemble mean (MME), we used the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to optimize the integration of model ensemble. The optimally integrated ensemble LAI changes are significantly closer to the observed seasonal LAI changes than the traditional MME results. The BMA factorial simulations suggest that eCO₂ provides the greatest contribution to increasing LAI trends in all seasons (0.003–0.007 m² m^?2 year^?1), and is the main factor driving asymmetric seasonal LAI trends. Climate change controls the spatial pattern of seasonal LAI trends and dominates the increase in seasonal LAI in the northern high latitudes. The effects of nitrogen deposition and land use change are relatively small in all seasons (around 0.0002 m² m^?2 year^?1 and 0.0001–0.001 m² m^?2 year^?1, respectively). Our analysis of the seasonal LAI responses to the interactions between seasonal changes in environmental factors offers a new perspective on the response of global vegetation to environmental changes.     

Relationships between expanding pinyon–juniper cover and topography in the central Great Basin, Nevada

Aim Increasing geographical range and density of conifers is a major form of land‐cover change in the western United States, affecting fire frequency, biogeochemistry and possibly biodiversity. However, the extent and magnitude of the change are uncertain. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between changing conifer cover and topography. Location The central Great Basin in the state of Nevada, USA. Methods We used a series of Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite images from 1986, 1995 and 2005 to map change in pinyon–juniper woodlands (Pinus monophylla, Juniperus spp.) in the montane central Great Basin of Nevada. We derived fractional greenness for each year using spectral mixture analysis and identified all areas with an above average increase in greenness from 1986 to 1995 and 1995 to 2005. Results Areas with high fractional greenness in 2005 were most likely to occur at elevations between 2200 and 2600 m a.s.l. Increases in fractional greenness between 1986 and 2005 were most likely to occur at elevations below 2000 m a.s.l. and on south‐facing slopes. However, relationships between elevation and increasing greenness for individual mountain ranges varied considerably from the average trend. Fractional greenness values measured by Landsat suggest that the majority of pinyon–juniper woodlands have not reached their maximum potential tree cover. Main conclusions Expansion of pinyon–juniper at low elevations and on south‐facing slopes probably reflects increasing precipitation in the 20th century, higher water use efficiency caused by increasing atmospheric CO₂ in the late 20th century and livestock grazing at the interface between shrubland and woodland. Identification of the spatial relationships between changing fractional greenness of pinyon–juniper woodland and topography can inform regional land management and improve projections of long‐term ecosystem change.     

2030年闽三角城市群土地利用变化对生态系统水源涵养服务的影响

生态系统水源涵养服务作为水资源得以持续的基础和保障,正持续遭受着人类活动的干扰和影响,土地利用变化作为主要的方式之一,对水源涵养的影响广泛而且深远。运用InVEST模型模拟了闽三角城市群2015年和2030年的水源涵养情景,发现到2030年闽三角城市群区域内水源涵养量总体会下降0.24×10⁸ m³;对比发现：土地利用变化对水源涵养的影响主要主要表现在变化面积、变化方向、作用强度以及面积补偿作用四个方面。首先面积变化方面,水源涵养量同用地类型的面积大小正相关,但二者的变化量并不正相关;其次变化方向方面,相比变化为城市生态系统和水域生态系统而言,变化为自然生态系统和农业生态系统的土地利用变化更有利于生态系统水源涵养;再次,土地利用变化对水源涵养产生作用的强度由强及弱以此为林地、其他土地、草地、农田、建设用地、水域及滩涂;最后,面积变化后的补偿作用方面,由于不同用地类型水源涵养能力和面积变化量的差异,由农田、林地、草地及其他土地面积下降导致的水源涵养量损失并不能通过建设用地、水域及滩涂用地类型面积的增加得以完全补偿。     

Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models

Concern over rapid global changes and the potential for interactions among multiple threats are prompting scientists to combine multiple modelling approaches to understand impacts on biodiversity. A relatively recent development is the combination of species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and dynamic population models to predict the relative and combined impacts of climate change, land‐use change, and altered disturbance regimes on species' extinction risk. Each modelling component introduces its own source of uncertainty through different parameters and assumptions, which, when combined, can result in compounded uncertainty that can have major implications for management. Although some uncertainty analyses have been conducted separately on various model components – such as climate predictions, species distribution models, land‐use change predictions, and population models – a unified sensitivity analysis comparing various sources of uncertainty in combined modelling approaches is needed to identify the most influential and problematic assumptions. We estimated the sensitivities of long‐run population predictions to different ecological assumptions and parameter settings for a rare and endangered annual plant species (Acanthomintha ilicifolia, or San Diego thornmint). Uncertainty about habitat suitability predictions, due to the choice of species distribution model, contributed most to variation in predictions about long‐run populations.     

Comparison of phenology trends by land cover class: a case study in the Great Basin, USA

Direct impacts of human land use and indirect impacts of anthropogenic climate change may alter land cover and associated ecosystem function, affecting ecological goods and services. Considerable work has been done to identify long‐term global trends in vegetation greenness, which is associated with primary productivity, using remote sensing. Trend analysis of satellite observations is subject to error, and ecosystem change can be confused with interannual variability. However, the relative trends of land cover classes may hold clues about differential ecosystem response to environmental forcing. Our aim was to identify phenological variability and 10‐year trends for the major land cover classes in the Great Basin. This case study involved two steps: a regional, phenology‐based land cover classification and an identification of phenological variability and 10‐year trends stratified by land cover class. The analysis used a 10‐year time series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite data to assess regional scale land cover variability and identify change. The phenology‐based regional classification was more detailed and accurate than national or global products. Phenological variability over the 10‐year period was high, with substantial shifts in timing of start of season of up to 9 weeks. The mean long‐term trends of montane land cover classes were significantly different from valley land cover classes due to a poor response of montane shrubland and pinyon‐juniper woodland to the early 1990s drought. The differential response during the 1990s suggests that valley ecosystems may be more resilient and montane ecosystems more susceptible to prolonged drought. This type of regional‐scale land cover analysis is necessary to characterize current patterns of land cover phenology, distinguish between anthropogenically driven land cover change and interannual variability, and identify ecosystems potentially susceptible to regional and global change.     

Controls on water balance of shallow thermokarst lakes and their relations with catchment characteristics: a multi‐year,landscape‐scale assessment based on water isotope tracers and remote sensing in Old Crow Flats,Yukon (Canada)

Many northern lake‐rich regions are undergoing pronounced hydrological change, yet inadequate knowledge of the drivers of these landscape‐scale responses hampers our ability to predict future conditions. We address this challenge in the thermokarst landscape of Old Crow Flats (OCF) using a combination of remote sensing imagery and monitoring of stable isotope compositions of lake waters over three thaw seasons (2007–2009). Quantitative analysis confirmed that the hydrological behavior of lakes is strongly influenced by catchment vegetation and physiography. Catchments of snowmelt‐dominated lakes, typically located in southern peripheral areas of OCF, encompass high proportions of woodland/forest and tall shrub vegetation (mean percent land cover = ca. 60%). These land cover types effectively capture snow and generate abundant snowmelt runoff that offsets lake water evaporation. Rainfall‐dominated lakes that are not strongly influenced by evaporation are typically located in eastern and northern OCF where their catchments have higher proportions of dwarf shrub/herbaceous and sparse vegetation (ca. 45%), as well as surface water (ca. 20%). Evaporation‐dominated lakes, are located in the OCF interior where their catchments are distinguished by substantially higher lake area to catchment area ratios (LA/CA = ca. 29%) compared to low evaporation‐influenced rainfall‐dominated (ca. 10%) and snowmelt‐dominated (ca. 4%) lakes. Lakes whose catchments contain >75% combined dwarf shrub/herbaceous vegetation and surface water are most susceptible to evaporative lake‐level drawdown, especially following periods of low precipitation. Findings indicate that multiple hydrological trajectories are probable in response to climate‐driven changes in precipitation amount and seasonality, vegetation composition, and thermokarst processes. These will likely include a shift to greater snowmelt influence in catchments experiencing expansion of tall shrubs, greater influence from evaporation in catchments having higher proportions of surface water, and an increase in the rate of thermokarst lake expansion and probability of drainage. Local observations suggest that some of these changes are already underway.     

The role of long‐distance seed dispersal in the local population dynamics of an invasive plant species

Aim Long‐distance dispersal is important for plant population dynamics at larger spatial scales, but our understanding of this phenomenon is mostly based on computer modelling rather than field data. This paper, by combining field data and a simulation model, quantifies the fraction of the seed of the alien species Heracleum mantegazzianum that needs to disperse over a long distance for successful invasion. Location Central Europe, Czech Republic. Methods To assess the role of random dispersal in long‐term population dynamics of the studied species, we combined longitudinal data covering 50 years of the invasion of this plant from its very start, inferred from a series of aerial photographs of 60‐ha plots, with data on population dynamics at a fine scale of 10‐m² plots. Results A simulation model based on field data indicates that the fraction of seed that is dispersed from source plants not described by the short‐distance dispersal kernel ranges from 0.1 to 7.5% of the total seed set. The fraction of long‐distance dispersed seed that provides the best prediction of the observed spread was significantly negatively correlated with the percentage of habitats suitable for invasion. Main conclusions Our results indicate that the fraction of seeds that needed to be dispersed over long distances to account for the observed invasion dynamics decreased with increasing proportion of invasible habitats, indicating that the spatial pattern of propagule pressure differs in landscapes prone to invasion. Long‐distance dispersal is an important component of the population dynamics of an invasive species even at relatively small scales.     

Interdecadal changes in at‐sea distribution and abundance of subantarctic seabirds along a latitudinal gradient in the Southern Indian Ocean

Long‐term demographic studies have recently shown that global climate change together with increasing direct impacts of human activities, such as fisheries, are affecting the population dynamics of marine top predators. However, the effects of these factors on species distribution and abundance at sea are still poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems of the southern hemisphere. Using a unique long‐term data set of at‐sea observations, we tested for interdecadal (1980s vs. 2000s) changes in summer abundance and distribution of 12 species of Albatrosses and Petrels along a 30° latitudinal gradient between tropical and Antarctic waters of the southern Indian Ocean. There were contrasting effects of climate change on subantarctic seabird distribution and abundance at sea. While subtropical waters showed the highest rate of warming, the species that visited this water mass showed the greatest changes in distribution and abundance. The abundance of Wandering Albatrosses (Diomedea exulans), White‐chinned Petrels (Procellaria aequinoctialis) and Giant Petrels (Macronectes sp.) declined markedly, whereas the other species showed contrasting trends or did not change. With the exception of the White‐chinned Petrel, these decreases were at least partly related to regional increase in sea surface temperature. The southward shift of Wandering Albatross and Prions (Pachyptila spp.) distributions could be ascribed to species redistribution or decrease in abundance due to warming of the subtropical waters. Surprisingly, White‐chinned Petrel distribution shifted northward, suggesting more complex mechanisms. This study is the first to document a shift in species range in the Southern Ocean related to climate change and contrasting abundance changes. It suggests that some species might experience more severe impacts from climate change depending on the water masses they visit. As climate changes are predicted to continue in the next decades, understanding species responses to climate change is crucial for conservation management, especially when their conservation status is critical or unknown.     

基于挺水植物高光谱信息的再生水总氮含量估测——以北京市门城湖湿地公园为例

高光谱信息是探测植物体内氮素含量状况的重要手段,而植物体中的氮素与水体含氮量息息相关.本研究区为以再生水为主要补给水水源的北京门城湖湿地公园,通过获取区内典型的再生水氮净化挺水植物芦苇和香蒲叶片的高光谱数据,并在室内测定对应样点的水体总氮含量指标, 探讨基于典型湿地挺水植物高光谱数据对水体总氮进行遥感探测的可行性.采用4种高光谱参数(光谱指数、归一化差值指数、“三边”参数及吸收特征参数)分别建立一元线性模型、逐步多元回归模型和偏最小二乘模型,根据决定系数(R²)和均方根误差(RMSE)进行模型精度检验.结果表明: 逐步多元回归和偏最小二乘模型的预测精度高于一元线性模型. 3种模型对芦苇的拟合效果均优于香蒲.偏最小二乘模型对芦苇的拟合效果最优(R²=0.854,RMSE=0.647).500～700 nm是反映水氮含量的最佳波段范围,绿峰与红谷反射率的比值与水体总氮含量具有较强的相关性,尤其是吸收特征参数能够较好地预测水体总氮含量.     

基于Probit回归模型的经济发达地区土地利用变化驱动力分析——以南京市为例

基于1996、2002及2010年的遥感影像,借助RS和GIS技术,分析南京市1996—2010年土地利用变化特征,并采用Probit回归模型定量分析土地利用变化驱动因素.结果表明： 1996—2010年,南京市土地利用变化特征主要表现为耕地和林地面积不断减少,建设用地、园地和草地面积持续增加,综合土地利用变化率呈不断上升趋势,整体处于发展状态;通过对耕地和林地变化的回归分析发现,耕地变化在1996—2002年主要受距最近农村居民点距离和农业人口密度变化的影响,在2002—2010年主要受地均GDP变化、距最近农村居民点距离和距最近道路距离的影响;而林地变化在1996—2002年主要受高程和距最近农村居民点距离的影响,在2002—2010年主要受地均GDP变化、人口密度变化和距最近道路距离的影响.影响研究区土地利用变化的因素早期主要是自然和空间距离因素,而近年主要是社会经济和人口因素.     

Invasion in tidal zones on complex coastlines: modelling larvae of the non‐native Manila clam,Ruditapes philippinarum,in the UK

Aim To evaluate whether natural larval transport and behaviour alone can explain the pattern of invasion and establishment of the non‐indigenous Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum ( Adams & Reeve, 1850 ), and its spread beyond the point of introduction in the UK. Location The study is focused on Poole Harbour, south England, the point of introduction of the Manila clam in the UK. Methods We use fine‐resolution hydrodynamic models coupled with a water salinity model and an individual behaviour model of Manila clam larvae. The model was informed by experimental studies on the vertical response of larvae to salinity and field studies of the species in its natural and new environments. Results Variations in the behavioural response of larvae to salinity in the model considerably affected the retention of clam larvae within the harbour. High levels of predicted larval retention occurred in two of five zones in the harbour when the salinity target was set at 17 practical salinity units. Persistently high densities of adult clams and recruits are accurately predicted in these regions. Main conclusions Even within a relatively small region such as Poole Harbour, there is both localized retention of larvae or ‘closed’ areas and areas that are considerably more ‘open’ and potentially connected. The behavioural response of larvae to salinity significantly affected the degree of retention and ‘openness’ of the harbour to this species. Although, through natural transport, larvae could theoretically reach the next available habitat within the duration of their pelagic stage our study indicates that areas of sufficiently reduced salinity may be necessary for sufficient retention, recruitment and establishment of new adult populations in estuaries. High resolution hydrodynamic models, coupled with larval behaviour, can accurately simulate and predict biological invasion along complex coastlines and contribute to risk assessment of the introduction of non‐indigenous species for aquaculture and spatial management of marine protection.     

Large‐scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands: The role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change

In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60‐year periods (2020–2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 × 250 m²) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.