UN warns that AIDS deaths are set to reach record level

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) warns that AIDS deaths are set to reach a record level during the year 1999. Estimates from UNAIDS reveal that 2.6 million people will die from diseases related to HIV and AIDS during 1999--a higher global total than any year since the beginning of the epidemic. In addition, 32.4 million adults and 1.2 million children are estimated to be living with HIV infection by the end of 1999. About 95% of those infected live in the developing world, and this proportion was predicted to rise even further as infection rates continued to rise in countries where poverty, poor health systems, and limited resources for prevention and care fueled the spread of the virus. The highest prevalence of the infection is seen in sub-Saharan Africa; close to 70% of the global total of HIV-positive people come from this region. However, the challenge also remains in industrialized countries, where unsafe sexual behavior and drug injection are practiced.     

Application of simple fed-batch technique to high-level secretory production of insulin precursor using <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pichia pastoris</Emphasis> with subsequent purification and conversion to human insulin

Background  

The prevalence of diabetes is predicted to rise significantly in the coming decades. A recent analysis projects that by the year 2030 there will be ~366 million diabetics around the world, leading to an increased demand for inexpensive insulin to make this life-saving drug also affordable for resource poor countries.     

How much Ascariasis is there in Africa?

What is the real burden of parasitic infections? How many people, for example, are infected with the common roundworm Ascaris lumbricoides-usually cited as'number one' in the 'league table' of human parasite prevalence? Extrapolations are often made from figures for helminth infection published in 1947 by Stoll. More recent estimates suggest almost unbelievable numbers of oscoriosis cases - about 1000 million people representing about one quarter of the world population. Such figures are important because they contribute to the perennial debate about: allocation o f scarce health resources in affected countries to infections of greatest public health importance. But where do such figures come from? In this article, David Crompton and Jim Tulley report on their appraisal of Ascaris prevalence data for Africa. Their figures were used to compile the geographic histogram on this month's cover.     

Estimation of the Burden of Chronic and Allergic Pulmonary Aspergillosis in India

Background and Objectives

It would be of considerable interest to clinicians if the burden of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) and allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) in India were known. Herein, we estimate the burden of CPA following pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), and ABPA (and severe asthma with fungal sensitization [SAFS]) complicating asthma.

Methods

We used the population estimates for India from the 2011 census data. The burden of asthma was estimated using three different methods (Global Initiative against Asthma [GINA] report statement, World Health Survey [WHS] estimates, Indian study on the epidemiology of asthma and chronic bronchitis [INSEARCH]). Global and India-specific figures were used for calculating the prevalence of ABPA and SAFS. The World Health Organization estimates were used for calculating PTB rates while the frequency of CPA was assessed from a previously published scoping review. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the burden in various scenarios.

Results

The total Indian population in 2011 was 1.2 billion. The asthma prevalence in adults was estimated at about 27.6 (range, 17–30) million. The burden of ABPA ranged from 0.12–6.09 million with different assumptions (best estimate, 1.38 [range, 0.86–1.52] million). The prevalence of SAFS was approximated at about 0.52–1.21 million (best estimate, 0.96 [range, 0.6–1.06] million). The incident TB cases were about 2.1 million while the annual incidence of CPA varied 27,000-0.17 million cases, with different estimates. If the mortality of CPA is estimated as 15% annually, the 5-year prevalence of CPA was placed at 290,147 cases with 5-year prevalence rate being 24 per 100,000.

Conclusion

There is a significant burden of ABPA, SAFS and CPA in India. Prospective community-based studies are required to accurately determine the prevalence of these disorders.     

Exertional dyspnea as initial manifestation of Takayasu's arteritis – A case report and literature review

Background  

Takayasu's arteritis is a chronic systemic inflammatory disease that usually affects the aorta, its primary branches and occasionally the pulmonary and coronary arteries. Female gender in reproductive age and Asian origin are known factors associated with higher disease prevalence. The clinical manifestations vary considerably and are typically caused by limb or organ ischemia illness and fever. The estimated incidence rate in the western world is 2.6 cases per million persons per year. Occasionally, exertional dyspnea can be the sole primary clinical manifestation of Takayasu's arteritis.     

National,Regional, and Global Trends in Infertility Prevalence Since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of 277 Health Surveys

Background

Global, regional, and national estimates of prevalence of and tends in infertility are needed to target prevention and treatment efforts. By applying a consistent algorithm to demographic and reproductive surveys available from developed and developing countries, we estimate infertility prevalence and trends, 1990 to 2010, by country and region.

Methods and Findings

We accessed and analyzed household survey data from 277 demographic and reproductive health surveys using a consistent algorithm to calculate infertility. We used a demographic infertility measure with live birth as the outcome and a 5-y exposure period based on union status, contraceptive use, and desire for a child. We corrected for biases arising from the use of incomplete information on past union status and contraceptive use. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate prevalence of and trends in infertility in 190 countries and territories. In 2010, among women 20–44 y of age who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 1.9% (95% uncertainty interval 1.7%, 2.2%) were unable to attain a live birth (primary infertility). Out of women who had had at least one live birth and were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, 10.5% (9.5%, 11.7%) were unable to have another child (secondary infertility). Infertility prevalence was highest in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa/Middle East, and Central/Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Levels of infertility in 2010 were similar to those in 1990 in most world regions, apart from declines in primary and secondary infertility in Sub-Saharan Africa and primary infertility in South Asia (posterior probability [pp] ≥0.99). Although there were no statistically significant changes in the prevalence of infertility in most regions amongst women who were exposed to the risk of pregnancy, reduced child-seeking behavior resulted in a reduction of primary infertility among all women from 1.6% to 1.5% (pp = 0.90) and a reduction of secondary infertility among all women from 3.9% to 3.0% (pp>0.99) from 1990 to 2010. Due to population growth, however, the absolute number of couples affected by infertility increased from 42.0 million (39.6 million, 44.8 million) in 1990 to 48.5 million (45.0 million, 52.6 million) in 2010. Limitations of the study include gaps in survey data for some countries and the use of proxies to determine exposure to pregnancy.

Conclusions

We analyzed demographic and reproductive household survey data to reveal global patterns and trends in infertility. Independent from population growth and worldwide declines in the preferred number of children, we found little evidence of changes in infertility over two decades, apart from in the regions of Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Further research is needed to identify the etiological causes of these patterns and trends. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The origins of African Plasmodium vivax; insights from mitochondrial genome sequencing

Plasmodium vivax, the second most prevalent of the human malaria parasites, is estimated to affect 75 million people annually. It is very rare, however, in west and central Africa, due to the high prevalence of the Duffy negative phenotype in the human population. Due to its rarity in Africa, previous studies on the phylogeny of world-wide P. vivax have suffered from insufficient samples of African parasites. Here we compare the mitochondrial sequence diversity of parasites from Africa with those from other areas of the world, in order to investigate the origin of present-day African P. vivax. Mitochondrial genome sequencing revealed relatively little polymorphism within the African population compared to parasites from the rest of the world. This, combined with sequence similarity with parasites from India, suggests that the present day African P. vivax population in humans may have been introduced relatively recently from the Indian subcontinent. Haplotype network analysis also raises the possibility that parasites currently found in Africa and South America may be the closest extant relatives of the ancestors of the current world population. Lines of evidence are adduced that this ancestral population may be from an ancient stock of P. vivax in Africa.     

Jute—World’s foremost bast fibre. I. Botany,agronomy, diseases and pests

India and Pakistan together contain over 96% of the world’s acreage devoted to this crop and produce nearly 97% of the world’s total supply. Two species of Corchorus are involved. The production of fibre has increased from about one million tons at the beginning of the present century to about two million tons today.     

Progress and Impact of 13 Years of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis on Reducing the Burden of Filarial Disease

Background

A Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis was launched in 2000, with mass drug administration (MDA) as the core strategy of the programme. After completing 13 years of operations through 2012 and with MDA in place in 55 of 73 endemic countries, the impact of the MDA programme on microfilaraemia, hydrocele and lymphedema is in need of being assessed.

Methodology/Principal findings

During 2000–2012, the MDA programme made remarkable achievements – a total of 6.37 billion treatments were offered and an estimated 4.45 billion treatments were consumed by the population living in endemic areas. Using a model based on empirical observations of the effects of treatment on clinical manifestations, it is estimated that 96.71 million LF cases, including 79.20 million microfilaria carriers, 18.73 million hydrocele cases and a minimum of 5.49 million lymphedema cases have been prevented or cured during this period. Consequently, the global prevalence of LF is calculated to have fallen by 59%, from 3.55% to 1.47%. The fall was highest for microfilaraemia prevalence (68%), followed by 49% in hydrocele prevalence and 25% in lymphedema prevalence. It is estimated that, currently, i.e. after 13 years of the MDA programme, there are still an estimated 67.88 million LF cases that include 36.45 million microfilaria carriers, 19.43 million hydrocele cases and 16.68 million lymphedema cases.

Conclusions/Significance

The MDA programme has resulted in significant reduction of the LF burden. Extension of MDA to all at-risk countries and to all regions within those countries where MDA has not yet reached 100% geographic coverage is imperative to further reduce the number of microfilaraemia and chronic disease cases and to reach the global target of interrupting transmission of LF by 2020.     

Global Estimates of the Prevalence and Incidence of Four Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2012 Based on Systematic Review and Global Reporting

Background

Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis.

Methods and Findings

WHO’s 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15–49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7–4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6–1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0–6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4–0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0–3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4–0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4–0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3–0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100–166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53–110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98–202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4–8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex.

Conclusions

Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment are made more widely available. Improved estimation methods are needed to allow use of more varied data and generation of estimates at the national level.     

Estimating the Prevalence and Awareness Rates of Hypertension in Africa: A Systematic Analysis

Background

The burden of hypertension is high in Africa, and due to rapid population growth and ageing, the exact burden on the continent is still far from being known. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and awareness rates of hypertension in Africa based on the cut off “≥140/90 mm Hg”.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health. Search date was set from January 1980 to December 2013. We included population-based studies on hypertension, conducted among people aged ≥15 years and providing numerical estimates on the prevalence of hypertension in Africa. Overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in mixed, rural and urban settings in Africa were estimated from reported crude prevalence rates. A meta-regression epidemiological modelling, using United Nations population demographics for the years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2030, was applied to determine the prevalence rates and number of cases of hypertension in Africa separately for these four years.

Results

Our search returned 7680 publications, 92 of which met the selection criteria. The overall pooled prevalence of hypertension in Africa was 19.7% in 1990, 27.4% in 2000 and 30.8% in 2010, each with a pooled awareness rate (expressed as percentage of hypertensive cases) of 16.9%, 29.2% and 33.7%, respectively. From the modelling, over 54.6 million cases of hypertension were estimated in 1990, 92.3 million cases in 2000, 130.2 million cases in 2010, and a projected increase to 216.8 million cases of hypertension by 2030; each with an age-adjusted prevalence of 19.1% (13.9, 25.5), 24.3% (23.3, 31.6), 25.9% (23.5, 34.0), and 25.3% (24.3, 39.7), respectively.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest the prevalence of hypertension is increasing in Africa, and many hypertensive individuals are not aware of their condition. We hope this research will prompt appropriate policy response towards improving the awareness, control and overall management of hypertension in Africa.     

Current Prevalence Pattern of Hypertension in Nigeria: A Systematic Review

BackgroundThe global burden of hypertension and other non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is rapidly increasing, and the African continent seems to be the most affected region in the world. The prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria forms a substantial portion of the total burden in Africa because of the large population of the country currently estimated to be over 170 million.ObjectiveThe purpose of this systematic review is to summarise up to date data on the prevalence and distribution of hypertension in Nigeria from prevalence studies.MethodsA search of the following databases: PubMed, EMBase and WHO cardiovascular InfoBase from 1968 till date was conducted to identify studies which provide estimates of prevalence of hypertension in Nigeria.ResultsThe search yielded a total of 1748 hits from which 45 relevant studies met the inclusion criteria for the review. The overall crude prevalence of hypertension ranged from 0.1% (95%CI:-0.1 to 0.3) to 17.5% (95% CI: 13.6 to 21.4) in children and 2.1% (95%CI: 1.4 to 2.8) to 47.2% (95%CI: 43.6 to 50.8) in adults depending on the benchmark used for diagnosis of hypertension, the setting in which the study was conducted, sex and ethnic group. The crude prevalence of hypertension ranged from 6.2% (95%CI: 4.0 to 8.4) to 48.9% (95%CI: 42.3 to 55.5) for men and 10% (95%CI: 8.1 to 12) to 47.3% (95%CI: 43 to 51.6%) for women. In most studies, prevalence of hypertension was higher in males than females. In addition, prevalence across urban and rural ranged from 9.5% (95%CI: 13.6 to 21.4) to 51.6% (95%CI: 49.8 to 53.4) and 4.8% (95%CI: 2.9 to 6.7) to 43% (95%CI: 42.1 to 43.9) respectively.ConclusionsThe prevalence of hypertension is high among the Nigerian population. Appropriate interventions need to be developed and implemented to reduce the preventable burden of hypertension especially at Primary Health Care Centres which is the first point of call for over 55% of the Nigerian population.     

The Global Burden of Trachoma: A Review

Trachoma is the commonest infectious cause of blindness worldwide. Recurrent infection of the ocular surface by Chlamydia trachomatis, the causative agent, leads to inturning of the eyelashes (trichiasis) and blinding corneal opacification. Trachoma is endemic in more than 50 countries. It is currently estimated that there are about 1.3 million people blind from the disease and a further 8.2 million have trichiasis. Several estimates for the burden of disease from trachoma have been made, giving quite variable results. The variation is partly because different prevalence data have been used and partly because different sequelae have been included. The most recent estimate from the WHO placed it at around 1.3 million Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). A key issue in producing a reliable estimate of the global burden of trachoma is the limited amount of reliable survey data from endemic regions.     

Real-time PCR Demonstrates High Prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum in the Philippines: Implications for Surveillance and Control

Background

The Philippines has a population of approximately 103 million people, of which 6.7 million live in schistosomiasis-endemic areas with 1.8 million people being at risk of infection with Schistosoma japonicum. Although the country-wide prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica in the Philippines is relatively low, the prevalence of schistosomiasis can be high, approaching 65% in some endemic areas. Of the currently available microscopy-based diagnostic techniques for detecting schistosome infections in the Philippines and elsewhere, most exhibit varying diagnostic performances, with the Kato-Katz (KK) method having particularly poor sensitivity for detecting low intensity infections. This suggests that the actual prevalence of schistosomiasis japonica may be much higher than previous reports have indicated.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Six barangay (villages) were selected to determine the prevalence of S. japonicum in humans in the municipality of Palapag, Northern Samar. Fecal samples were collected from 560 humans and examined by the KK method and a validated real-time PCR (qPCR) assay. A high S. japonicum prevalence (90.2%) was revealed using qPCR whereas the KK method indicated a lower prevalence (22.9%). The geometric mean eggs per gram (GMEPG) determined by the qPCR was 36.5 and 11.5 by the KK. These results, particularly those obtained by the qPCR, indicate that the prevalence of schistosomiasis in this region of the Philippines is much higher than historically reported.

Conclusions/Significance

Despite being more expensive, qPCR can complement the KK procedure, particularly for surveillance and monitoring of areas where extensive schistosomiasis control has led to low prevalence and intensity infections and where schistosomiasis elimination is on the horizon, as for example in southern China.     

Implications of partial immunity on the prospects for tuberculosis control by post-exposure interventions

One-third of the world population (approximately 2 billion individuals) is currently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the vast majority harboring a latent infection. As the risk of reactivation is around 10% in a lifetime, it follows that 200 million of these will eventually develop active pulmonary disease. Only therapeutic or post-exposure interventions can tame this vast reservoir of infection. Treatment of latent infections can reduce the risk of reactivation, and there is accumulating evidence that combination with post-exposure vaccines can reduce the risk of reinfection. Here we develop mathematical models to explore the potential of these post-exposure interventions to control tuberculosis on a global scale. Intensive programs targeting recent infections appear generally effective, but the benefit is potentially greater in intermediate prevalence scenarios. Extending these strategies to longer-term persistent infections appears more beneficial where prevalence is low. Finally, we consider that susceptibility to reinfection is altered by therapy, and explore its epidemiological consequences. When we assume that therapy reduces susceptibility to subsequent reinfection, catastrophic dynamics are observed. Thus, a bipolar outcome is obtained, where either small or large reductions in prevalence levels result, depending on the rate of detection and treatment of latent infections. By contrast, increased susceptibility after therapy may induce an increase in disease prevalence and does not lead to catastrophic dynamics. These potential outcomes are silent unless a widespread intervention is implemented.     

Recombinant human lactoferrin treatment for global health issues: iron deficiency and acute diarrhea

Iron deficiency and diarrhea are two of the most significant issues for global health. Iron deficiency anemia is the most common nutritional deficiency in the world, affecting nearly 25% of the world population (UNICEF/WHO 1999). The prevalence of iron deficiency in developing countries is illustrated by comparison with other deficiencies: iron deficiency affects 3.5 billion people, while vitamin A and iodine deficiency affect 0.3 billion people and 0.8 billion people, respectively. The prevalence is highest among young children and women of childbearing age (particularly pregnant women). It is estimated that national productivity levels could be raised as much as 20% by correcting iron deficiency in developing countries. Recombinant human lactoferrin (rhLF), expressed and extracted from rice seed, is being evaluated by Ventria Bioscience for use as a dietary supplement to treat iron deficiency and/or iron deficiency anemia. Diarrhea is also a major world health issue. Sixty percent of children who die under age five die of pneumonia, diarrhea or measles. World Health Organization oral rehydration solution (WHO-ORS) is one of the major medical advances in the past 50 years, saving the lives of 1 to 2 million children annually. Many studies have demonstrated similar efficacy of rice-based ORS. There are studies documenting the reduced frequency of diarrhea in breast-fed children and this health improvement is attributed to the antimicrobial action of the human milk proteins lactoferrin and lysozyme. In vitro data document the growth inhibition of the diarrheal associated organisms: rotavirus, ETEC, cholera, salmonella, and shigella by human lactoferrin (hLF) and human lysozyme. Using Ventria's ExpressTec system, we have expressed human lactoferrin and human lysozyme in rice. In a rice-based ORS formulation, these proteins have the potential to provide not only the benefits of reduced stool volume and improved weight gain, but also shorten the course of diarrheal episodes via antimicrobial activity against the causative agent.     

Genetic diversity at class II DRB loci of the primate MHC

The evolution of polymorphism at loci encoding the beta-chains of the MHC class II DR Ag was studied in primates by DNA amplification (polymerase chain reaction). Phylogenetic analysis of 63 DRB sequences from the polymorphic second exon (first domain) of nonhuman primates and 53 human sequences indicates the presence of five DRB loci in primates, derived from a DRB1-like ancestral locus over 20 million yr ago. Many of the allelic types at the DRB1 locus predate the divergence of hominoids (5 million yr ago) and some (DR4, DR3, 5, 6) predate the divergence of Old world monkeys and hominoids (20 million yr ago). The DRB3 locus appears to have arisen before the divergence of hominoids on an ancestral DRB1 lineage. The DRB2 and DRB5 loci were generated more than 20 million yr ago and the DRB4 locus more than 5 million yr ago. The DRB2 locus, a pseudogene in humans, is polymorphic in the nonhuman primates.     

Soil-transmitted helminthiasis in China: A national survey in 2014-2015

BackgroundBased on two national surveys, the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) in China had decreased from 53.58% in 1988–1992 to 19.56% in 2001–2004. To update the epidemiology and characteristics of STH in China, a third national survey was implemented in 2014–2015.Methodology/Principal findingsThis survey covered rural areas in 31 provinces in mainland of China. Multiple-stage stratified cluster sampling was employed, which included three levels (provinces, ecozones and economical levels). Stool samples were collected and the Kato-Katz method was applied for helminth eggs detection. Samples with hookworm eggs were selected and hatched to differentiate the species based on larval morphology. Between June 2014 and May 2015, a total of 484,210 participants from 604 counties were enrolled. The weighted prevalence of STH overall was 4.49% (95% confidential interval (CI): 2.45%-6.53%), including 2.62% (95% CI: 0.86%-4.38%) hookworm infections, 1.36% (95% CI: 0.49%-2.23%) ascariasis, and 1.02% (95% CI: 0.15%-1.89%) trichuriasis. The estimated population infected was 29.12 million (95% CI: 15.88 million-42.32 million) for all STH; 16.97 million (95% CI: 5.57 million-28.39 million) for hookworm infections; 8.83 million (95% CI: 3.18 million-14.45 million) for ascariasis; and 6.60 million (95% CI: 0.97 million-12.25 million) for trichuriasis. Overall, the prevalence of ascariasis and trichuriasis was relatively high in children, while hookworm infections were more common in the older population, especially those over 60. STH was highly prevalent in western China, and moderately in central areas, but low in eastern and northern regions. Out of 3,579 hookworm cases with species differentiation, 479 cases (13.38%) were infected with only Ancylostoma spp., 2,808 cases (78.46%) with only Necator americanus, and another 292 cases (8.16%) with both species.Conclusions/SignificanceThis survey demonstrated the continuous decrease of STH in rural China. However, endemicity still prevails in the western areas of the country. Hookworm, especially N. americanus, is becoming the predominant species. Older farmers in western China should be prioritized for control due to the high prevalence of hookworm.     

Global Estimates of Prevalent and Incident Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 Infections in 2012

Background

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection causes significant disease globally. Adolescent and adult infection may present as painful genital ulcers. Neonatal infection has high morbidity and mortality. Additionally, HSV-2 likely contributes substantially to the spread of HIV infection. The global burden of HSV-2 infection was last estimated for 2003. Here we present new global estimates for 2012 of the burden of prevalent (existing) and incident (new) HSV-2 infection among females and males aged 15–49 years, using updated methodology to adjust for test performance and estimate by World Health Organization (WHO) region.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a literature review of HSV-2 prevalence studies world-wide since 2000. We then fitted a model with constant HSV-2 incidence by age to pooled HSV-2 prevalence values by age and sex. Prevalence values were adjusted for test sensitivity and specificity. The model estimated prevalence and incidence by sex for each WHO region to obtain global burden estimates. Uncertainty bounds were computed by refitting the model to reflect the variation in the underlying prevalence data. In 2012, we estimate that there were 417 million people aged 15–49 years (range: 274–678 million) living with HSV-2 infection world-wide (11.3% global prevalence), of whom 267 million were women. We also estimate that in 2012, 19.2 million (range: 13.0–28.6 million) individuals aged 15–49 years were newly-infected (0.5% of all individuals globally). The highest burden was in Africa. However, despite lower prevalence, South-East Asia and Western Pacific regions also contributed large numbers to the global totals because of large population sizes.

Conclusions

The global burden of HSV-2 infection is large, leaving over 400 million people at increased risk of genital ulcer disease, HIV acquisition, and transmission of HSV-2 to partners or neonates. These estimates highlight the critical need for development of vaccines, microbicides, and other new HSV prevention strategies.     

HIV/AIDS in Asia： The Shape of Epidemics and Their Molecular Epidemiology

The Asia-Pacific region is a home to 60% of the population in the world and to approximately one quarter of people with HIV/AIDS. Close to a million of people has been infected and a half million people died of AIDS annually in Asia,becoming the second largest epicenter of global AIDS epidemic. Molecular epidemiology has been useful tool to track a course of HIV spread. In-depth knowledge from the studies on molecular epidemiology elucidates the dynamics of HIV spread and the interrelationship of epidemics in the different regions in Asia.