Invited review: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,agriculture, and food—A case of shifting cultivation and history

Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom‐up and top‐down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.     

澳大利亚生物经济发展框架及其比较启示

生物经济(bioeconomy)与生物资源、低碳排放、食品安全、营养健康、生物能源、生物材料、农业重新定位、土地利用、生物多样性及生态服务(BES)、研究与开发(R&D)及政策制定等众多领域具有越来越密切、越来越重要的关系。从澳大利亚对"生物经济"的理解、生物经济框架及发展机遇等方面分析了生物经济在澳大利亚的发展状况,与其他国家或地区生物经济发展进行比较,给当代可持续发展观赋予新的时代内涵,给中国生物经济发展提供以下借鉴与启示:倡导广义生物经济发展,引领多领域绿色革命;重视生物经济的可持续性与农业角色的重新定位;超越概念阶段,将生物经济作为可持续发展的平台;适宜采用生物经济发展的"全生物质"模式。     

Agricultural diversification as an important strategy for achieving food security in Africa

Farmers in Africa have long adapted to climatic and other risks by diversifying their farming activities. Using a multi‐scale approach, we explore the relationship between farming diversity and food security and the diversification potential of African agriculture and its limits on the household and continental scale. On the household scale, we use agricultural surveys from more than 28,000 households located in 18 African countries. In a next step, we use the relationship between rainfall, rainfall variability, and farming diversity to determine the available diversification options for farmers on the continental scale. On the household scale, we show that households with greater farming diversity are more successful in meeting their consumption needs, but only up to a certain level of diversity per ha cropland and more often if food can be purchased from off‐farm income or income from farm sales. More diverse farming systems can contribute to household food security; however, the relationship is influenced by other factors, for example, the market orientation of a household, livestock ownership, nonagricultural employment opportunities, and available land resources. On the continental scale, the greatest opportunities for diversification of food crops, cash crops, and livestock are located in areas with 500–1,000 mm annual rainfall and 17%–22% rainfall variability. Forty‐three percent of the African cropland lacks these opportunities at present which may hamper the ability of agricultural systems to respond to climate change. While sustainable intensification practices that increase yields have received most attention to date, our study suggests that a shift in the research and policy paradigm toward agricultural diversification options may be necessary.     

Genetically modified and organic crops in developing countries: A review of options for food security

Since two decades ago, when the first GM crops were introduced, there have increasingly been hot debates on the applications of gene manipulation. Currently, the development of GM crop varieties has raised a wide range of new legal, ethical and economic questions in agriculture. There is a growing body of literature reflecting the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM crops which aims to criticize their value for farming systems. While organic crops are promoted as environmentally-friendly products in developed countries, they have provoked great controversy in developing countries facing food security and a low agricultural productivity. Discussion has been especially vigorous when organic farming was introduced as an alternative method. There are in fact, a few tradeoffs in developing countries. On the one hand, farmers are encouraged to accept and implement GM crops because of their higher productivity, while on the other hand, organic farming is encouraged because of socio-economic and environmental considerations. A crucial question facing such countries is therefore, whether GM crops can co-exist with organic farming. This paper aims to review the main considerations and tradeoffs.     

Climate science and famine early warning

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.     

OBPC Symposium: maize 2004 &; beyond—Can agricultural biotechnology contribute to global food security?

Summary Bioengineering approaches provide unprecedented opportunities for reducing poverty, food insecurity, child malnutrition, and natural resource degradation. Genetic engineering offers outstanding potential to increase the efficiency of crop improvement. Thus agricultural biotechnology could enhance global food production and availability in a sustainable way. Small farmers in developing countries are faced with many problems and constraints which biotechnology may assist. Yet, there are varying levels of opposition to the use of this technology in most countries and it is especially intense in Europe. While there is certain public apprehension with the use of bioengineering in food improvement, the primary hurdles facing this technology are the stringent and burdensome regulatory requirements for commercialization, opposition from the special interest groups, apprehension by the food industry especially with the whole foods, and trade barriers including rigid policies on traceability and labeling. Bioengineered crops such as soybean, maize, cotton, and canola with a few traits have already made a remarkable impaet on food production and environmental quality. But, in the developing world, bioengineering of crops such as bananas, cassava, yams, sweet potatoes, sorghum, rice, maize, wheat, millet, and legumes, along with livestock, can elearly contribute to global food security. However, the integration of biotechnology into agricultural research in developing countries faces many challenges which must be addressed: financial, technical, political, environmental, activism, intellectual-property, biosafety, and trade-related issues. To ensure that developing countries can harness the benefit of this technology with minimal problems, concerted efforts must be pursued to create an awareness of its potential benefits and to address the concerns related to its use through dialog among the various stakeholders: policy makers, scientists, trade groups, food industry, consumer organizations, farmer groups, media, and non-governmental organizations. Biotechnology holds great promise as a new tool in the scientific toolkit for generating applied agricultural technologies; however, per se it is not a panacea for the worlds problems of hunger and poverty.     

跨国土地利用及其生态影响

在全球食物价格不断上涨,粮食安全已经威胁到经济安全的环境下,跨国农用地投资成为国际浪潮。跨国农用地投资推动着各国的土地资源向全球化资源转变,对土地的跨国利用成为全球土地资源优化配置的必然。在对跨国土地利用的背景及现状进行阐述的基础上,指出"代理性农业耕作"方式对区域生态环境可能造成的影响。同时,新型农业科技与跨国土地利用的结合,也在推动着农业经济发展的同时,改变着传统的土地利用模式,进而改变着区域生态环境。最后,指出需要对跨国土地利用做出理性分析并建立相关的国际规则,从而维护可持续粮食安全及生态安全。     

Patterns of land use,extensification, and intensification of Brazilian agriculture

Sustainable intensification of agriculture is one of the main strategies to provide global food security. However, its implementation raises enormous political, technological, and social challenges. Meeting these challenges will require, among other things, accurate information on the spatial and temporal patterns of agricultural land use and yield. Here, we investigate historical patterns of agricultural land use (1940–2012) and productivity (1990–2012) in Brazil using a new high‐resolution (approximately 1 km²) spatially explicit reconstruction. Although Brazilian agriculture has been historically known for its extensification over natural vegetation (Amazon and Cerrado), data from recent years indicate that extensification has slowed down and was replaced by a strong trend of intensification. Our results provide the first comprehensive historical overview of agricultural land use and productivity in Brazil, providing clear insights to guide future territorial planning, sustainable agriculture, policy, and decision‐making.     

Agricultural biotechnologies in developing countries and their possible contribution to food security

Latest FAO figures indicate that an estimated 925 million people are undernourished in 2010, representing almost 16% of the population in developing countries. Looking to the future, there are also major challenges ahead from the rapidly changing socio-economic environment (increasing world population and urbanisation, and dietary changes) and climate change. Promoting agriculture in developing countries is the key to achieving food security, and it is essential to act in four ways: to increase investment in agriculture, broaden access to food, improve governance of global trade, and increase productivity while conserving natural resources. To enable the fourth action, the suite of technological options for farmers should be as broad as possible, including agricultural biotechnologies. Agricultural biotechnologies represent a broad range of technologies used in food and agriculture for the genetic improvement of plant varieties and animal populations, characterisation and conservation of genetic resources, diagnosis of plant or animal diseases and other purposes. Discussions about agricultural biotechnology have been dominated by the continuing controversy surrounding genetic modification and its resulting products, genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The polarised debate has led to non-GMO biotechnologies being overshadowed, often hindering their development and application. Extensive documentation from the FAO international technical conference on Agricultural Biotechnologies in Developing Countries (ABDC-10), that took place in Guadalajara, Mexico, on 1-4 March 2010, gave a very good overview of the many ways that different agricultural biotechnologies are being used to increase productivity and conserve natural resources in the crop, livestock, fishery, forestry and agro-industry sectors in developing countries. The conference brought together about 300 policy-makers, scientists and representatives of intergovernmental and international non-governmental organisations, including delegations from 42 FAO Member States. At the end of ABDC-10, the Member States reached a number of key conclusions, agreeing, inter alia, that FAO and other relevant international organisations and donors should significantly increase their efforts to support the strengthening of national capacities in the development and appropriate use of pro-poor agricultural biotechnologies.     

菲律宾农业生物技术年报(2011年)

菲律宾生物技术监管体系始终坚持以科学为依据,其他发展中国家逐渐将菲律宾作为生物技术政策和法规方面的楷模。第一种本地开发的转基因作物“Bt茄子”可能在2013年初前实现商业化,“金色水稻”可能紧随其后。目前没有生物技术相关的贸易中断的报道,美国出口的转基因产品在2010年继续保持增长。菲律宾农业政策仍然是以食品保障为导向,政策的制定工作一直以来保持积极态势。但是,最近批准的《菲律宾发展计划》支持了转基因产品的标签工作以及对环境风险评估采取谨慎态度。     

From Food Insufficiency towards Trade Dependency: A Historical Analysis of Global Food Availability

Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965–2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (>2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33% in 1965 to 61% in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (<2000 kcal/cap/d) has dropped from 52% to 3%. Largest improvements are seen in the MENA region, Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Besides, the composition of diets has changed considerably within the study period: the world population living with high supply of animal source food (>15% of dietary energy supply) increased from 33% to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production>2500 kcal/cap/d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our results provide a basis for understanding past global food system dynamics which, in turn, can benefit research on future food security.     

Urbanization and its implications for food and farming

This paper discusses the influences on food and farming of an increasingly urbanized world and a declining ratio of food producers to food consumers. Urbanization has been underpinned by the rapid growth in the world economy and in the proportion of gross world product and of workers in industrial and service enterprises. Globally, agriculture has met the demands from this rapidly growing urban population, including food that is more energy-, land-, water- and greenhouse gas emission-intensive. But hundreds of millions of urban dwellers suffer under-nutrition. So the key issues with regard to agriculture and urbanization are whether the growing and changing demands for agricultural products from growing urban populations can be sustained while at the same time underpinning agricultural prosperity and reducing rural and urban poverty. To this are added the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to build resilience in agriculture and urban development to climate change impacts. The paper gives particular attention to low- and middle-income nations since these have more than three-quarters of the world''s urban population and most of its largest cities and these include nations where issues of food security are most pressing.     

Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.     

Agricultural policy and sustainable livestock development

Future agricultural and rural development is, to a large extent, influenced by the projected food needs of 2.5 billion people expected to swell the world population by 2020. This increase will require more food in general and, in view of recent experience in East Asia, more animal products. To achieve this increase will require judicious use of resources, and trade, especially in those countries where natural resources are insufficient to support food production. Achieving food sufficiency in a sustainable manner is a major challenge for farmers, agro-industries, researchers and governments. The latter play an important role as many of the farmers' choices are, to a large extent, directed by government or supra-government, often through macro- and micro-economic policy. In many countries the economic, environmental, trade and agricultural policies have not been conducive to an agricultural development that is risk-free with respect to the environment, animal welfare or public health. The recent decline of government support in agriculture forced farmers in Western countries to think about more risk adverse agricultural practices and more efficient production systems. On the other hand, many countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, as well as other developing countries, are still going through a painful process of adjustment to new market conditions. International banks and development agencies have a mandate to help developing countries, but are somewhat restricted both by needing to work directly with governments and by their perceived dogmatic approach to development. Changing policies do, now and in the future, also affect the development of animal disease control programmes, including the control of parasitic diseases. On the one hand there is an increasing interest in risk-free control practices, and on the other hand a demand for greater regulatory control over the production process. As parasitic diseases of animals are closely linked to the environment (i.e. grazing and waste management) and public health (i.e. parasitic zoonoses), the new interest in sustainable agriculture provides a challenge for those concerned with the control and prevention of animal parasitism.     

Agricultural biotechnologies in developing countries and their possible contribution to food security

Latest FAO figures indicate that an estimated 925 million people are undernourished in 2010, representing almost 16% of the population in developing countries. Looking to the future, there are also major challenges ahead from the rapidly changing socio-economic environment (increasing world population and urbanisation, and dietary changes) and climate change.Promoting agriculture in developing countries is the key to achieving food security, and it is essential to act in four ways: to increase investment in agriculture, broaden access to food, improve governance of global trade, and increase productivity while conserving natural resources. To enable the fourth action, the suite of technological options for farmers should be as broad as possible, including agricultural biotechnologies. Agricultural biotechnologies represent a broad range of technologies used in food and agriculture for the genetic improvement of plant varieties and animal populations, characterisation and conservation of genetic resources, diagnosis of plant or animal diseases and other purposes. Discussions about agricultural biotechnology have been dominated by the continuing controversy surrounding genetic modification and its resulting products, genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The polarised debate has led to non-GMO biotechnologies being overshadowed, often hindering their development and application.Extensive documentation from the FAO international technical conference on Agricultural Biotechnologies in Developing Countries (ABDC-10), that took place in Guadalajara, Mexico, on 1–4 March 2010, gave a very good overview of the many ways that different agricultural biotechnologies are being used to increase productivity and conserve natural resources in the crop, livestock, fishery, forestry and agro-industry sectors in developing countries. The conference brought together about 300 policy-makers, scientists and representatives of intergovernmental and international non-governmental organisations, including delegations from 42 FAO Member States. At the end of ABDC-10, the Member States reached a number of key conclusions, agreeing, inter alia, that FAO and other relevant international organisations and donors should significantly increase their efforts to support the strengthening of national capacities in the development and appropriate use of pro-poor agricultural biotechnologies.     

稻飞虱灾变机理及可持续治理的基础研究

稻飞虱(褐飞虱、白背飞虱和褐飞虱)是威胁我国粮食安全最大的生物灾害。本文基于稻飞虱致害能力的高度变异性、对农药的高适应性、传播病毒病和具有远距离迁飞能力等特点,以及研究中存在的稻飞虱迁飞动态、致害性变异和种间互作关系等灾变机理机制不清楚,提出了稻飞虱迁飞时空动态、致害性变异、稻飞虱传播的病毒病、农药对稻飞虱及其天敌的生态毒理效应、稻飞虱基因组数据分析和稻田生态系统对稻飞虱种群数量调控功能6个研究发展方向以阐明稻飞虱灾变的内在机理,为稻飞虱可持续治理体系建设提供理论依据。     

Managing conflicts arising from fisheries enhancements based on non‐native fishes in southern Africa

Southern Africa has a long history of non‐native fish introductions for the enhancement of recreational and commercial fisheries, due to a perceived lack of suitable native species. This has resulted in some important inland fisheries being based on non‐native fishes. Regionally, these introductions are predominantly not benign, and non‐native fishes are considered one of the main threats to aquatic biodiversity because they affect native biota through predation, competition, habitat alteration, disease transfer and hybridization. To achieve national policy objectives of economic development, food security and poverty eradication, countries are increasingly looking towards inland fisheries as vehicles for development. As a result, conflicts have developed between economic and conservation objectives. In South Africa, as is the case for other invasive biota, the control and management of non‐native fishes is included in the National Environmental Management: Biodiversity Act. Implementation measures include import and movement controls and, more recently, non‐native fish eradication in conservation priority areas. Management actions are, however, complicated because many non‐native fishes are important components in recreational and subsistence fisheries that contribute towards regional economies and food security. In other southern African countries, little attention has focussed on issues and management of non‐native fishes, and this is cause for concern. This paper provides an overview of introductions, impacts and fisheries in southern Africa with emphasis on existing and evolving legislation, conflicts, implementation strategies and the sometimes innovative approaches that have been used to prioritize conservation areas and manage non‐native fishes.     

L’agriculture africaine face aux changements globaux : recherches et innovations basées sur les sciences de l’écologie

In the context of environmental and socio-economic changes, the agriculture of Sub-Saharan African countries will have to ensure food security of the population, while reducing its environmental footprint. The biophysical and social systems of agricultural production are complex. Innovative agricultural practices will be based on an intensification of ecological processes that determine the functioning of the soil–plant system, farmers’ fields and agro-ecosystems. This ecological engineering approach is useful to take up the challenge of Sub-Saharan agricultures in the future, as shown in researches conducted by IESOL International Joint Lab “Intensification of agricultural soils in West Africa” (ISRA, UCAD, TU, OU, INERA, IRD).     

Sustainability of Current Agriculture Practices, Community Perception, and Implications for Ecosystem Health: An Indian Study

In order to support agribusiness and to attain food security for ever-increasing populations, most countries in the world have embraced modern agricultural technologies. Ecological consequences of the technocentric approaches, and their sustainability and impacts on human health have, however, not received adequate attention particularly in developing countries. India is one country that has undergone a rapid transformation in the field of agriculture by adopting strategies of the Green Revolution. This article provides a comparative analysis of the effects of older and newer paradigms of agricultural practices on ecosystem and human health within the larger context of sustainability. The study was conducted in three closely situated areas where different agricultural practices were followed: (a) the head-end of a modern canal-irrigated area, (b) an adjacent dryland, and (c) an area (the ancient area) that has been provided with irrigation for some 800 years. Data were collected by in-depth interviews of individual farmers, focus-group discussions, participatory observations, and from secondary sources. The dryland, receiving limited rainfall, continues to practice diverse cropping centered to a large extent on traditional coarse cereals and uses only small amounts of chemical inputs. On the other hand, modern agriculture in the head-end emphasizes continuous cropping of rice supported by extensive and indiscriminate use of agrochemicals. Market forces have, to a significant degree, influenced the ancient area to abandon much of its early practices of organic farming and to take up aspects of modern agricultural practice. Rice cultivation in the irrigated parts has changed the local landscape and vegetation and has augmented the mosquito population, which is a potential vector for malaria, Japanese encephalitis and other diseases. Nevertheless, despite these problems, perceptions of adverse environmental effects are lowest in the heavily irrigated area.     

Impact of integrated pest management on food and horticultural crops in Africa

In sustainable agricultural development, integrated pest management (IPM) can play a key role in the reduction of crop losses, thereby increasing productivity while minimizing environmental contamination and health hazards. In recent years, agricultural research and development partners have pioneered outstanding contributions in IPM, notably in varietal resistance against pests, biological control of alien invasive species, substitution of inorganic pesticides with biopesticides, new export market opportunities, and new tools in biotechnology. Success stories are not limited to these areas, but are also found in the areas of human capital development, information management, and participatory approaches. The potential of IPM to contribute to poverty alleviation and food security is, however, poorly realized in Africa due to a myriad of factors, including inadequate deployment of high-yielding crop varieties, harmful pesticide regimes, political instability, conflicts in social values and civil wars, inappropriate agricultural policies, biased global trade policies, lack of market information, and poor rural infrastructures. Few African countries have adopted IPM as the official national crop protection policy and there is no framework for resource allocation to support widespread promotion of research and training in IPM. This calls for reshaping and revisiting a number of policies related to food production and agricultural development, in order to encourage partnership and participation in the identification, analysis, advocacy, and follow-up of agricultural policy issues as well as public awareness of the effect of pests and diseases on food security and the environment.