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1.
Vijver MG Kruijne R Van 'T Zelfde M Van Der Linden AM Tamis WL De Snoo GR 《Communications in agricultural and applied biological sciences》2011,76(4):879-889
In order to have a thorough evaluation of the progress and effectiveness of Dutch crop protection policy, both model predictions and measured pesticide concentrations in surface waters are considered. To this purpose, monitoring data obtained by various water boards and other monitoring institutes were processed. Data were aggregated over a two year time period and over space (at 1x1 km-grid). A geographic view is given in the Dutch Pesticides Atlas (www.pesticidesatlas.nl). The model used for the predictions was the Dutch National Environmental Indicator NMI version 2 (www.nmi.alterra.nl) that has input data regarding spray drift data, crop interception, soil and climate and many more. Information on aggregation steps over time and space, grid sizes, information on crop areas was geared to one another for both instruments. Results on measured pesticide concentrations in surface waters and model predictions were compared to each other at the national scale. For this study, 10 different cases were selected covering a large range of pesticides' characteristics and pesticides' use. In 60% of the cases, the results were largely in agreement with each other when expressed as absolute numbers of measurements exceeding the environmental quality standard. This is very accurate and useful for policy purposes. Based on concentrations and on the order of magnitude, no significant agreement between measurements and model predictions was found. Differences were explained by various factors, and an overview of predominant systematic differences between the measurements and the model predictions was presented. Using both measurements and model predictions in supporting environmental policy evaluations is warranted, because of higher Weight-of-Evidence. Combining both can assist in optimizing the knowledge on pesticides behaviour, fate and ecological problems and therefore this is the preferred evaluation method. 相似文献
2.
Stranding data and recorded post-mortem findings were studied for 153 harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), which were collected by the Seal Rehabilitation and Research Centre (SRRC; Pieterburen, The Netherlands) in the period
1984–2006. Special consideration was given to ‘by-catch’ listed as a major cause of death. A distinct increase in the numbers
of strandings of porpoises along the Dutch coastline has occurred in the recent years of the studied period. This corresponds
to the number of porpoises observed in Dutch waters in the same period. Although strandings occurred throughout the entire
year, they were most frequent during the January to July period. By-catch and drowning were noted most frequent in the winter
and spring seasons (December–April). By-catch and drowned porpoises were found along the entire Dutch coastline. The numbers
of animals per area varied depending on the collection efforts. At post-mortem investigation, three probable causes of death
were identified most frequently: pneumonia, emaciation and by-catch/drowning. The by-catch and drowning rate was calculated
to vary between 7% and 19%. Overall, the percentages obtained from this study appeared to be in line with those established
by others in neighbouring countries. Varying fishing techniques are used in Dutch waters. A careful study of the fishing methods
involved and close co-operation with fishermen are required to determine effective measures to reduce the by-catch of porpoises. 相似文献
3.
Camille Turlure Viktoriia Radchuk Michel Baguette Mark Meijrink Arnold van den Burg Michiel Wallis De Vries Gert‐Jan van Duinen 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(2):244-254
The butterfly Boloria aquilonaris is a specialist of oligotrophic ecosystems. Population viability analysis predicted the species to be stable in Belgium and to collapse in the Netherlands with reduced host plant quality expected to drive species decline in the latter. We tested this hypothesis by rearing B. aquilonaris caterpillars from Belgian and Dutch sites on host plants (the cranberry, Vaccinium oxycoccos). Dutch plant quality was lower than Belgian one conferring lower caterpillar growth rate and survival. Reintroduction and/or supplementation may be necessary to ensure the viability of the species in the Netherlands, but some traits may have been selected solely in Dutch caterpillars to cope with gradual changes in host plant quality. To test this hypothesis, the performance of Belgian and Dutch caterpillars fed with plants from both countries were compared. Dutch caterpillars performed well on both plant qualities, whereas Belgian caterpillars could not switch to lower quality plants. This can be considered as an environmentally induced plastic response of caterpillars and/or a local adaptation to plant quality, which precludes the use of Belgian individuals as a unique solution for strengthening Dutch populations. More generally, these results stress that the relevance of local adaptation in selecting source populations for relocation may be as important as restoring habitat quality. 相似文献
4.
N. M. L. H. F. Frantzen 《Aquatic Ecology》1992,26(2-4):543-549
The chironomid fauna of the river Meuse in Belgium and The Netherlands was studied in order to determine spatial water quality variations. Because the river Meuse serves as a source for drinking water production for about five million people in Belgium and The Netherlands, water quality is an essential factor to be studied. From 1984 till 1989 pupal exuviae were collected. Water quality was assessed by several indices and autecological information of the various taxa. With regard to pollution the general trend through the years was the same. The most upstream sampling site, in the Belgian Ardennes, was relatively unpolluted. As a result of untreated industrial and municipal wastewater discharges in the Liège region, water quality deteriorated dramatically at the Dutch border. At the most downstream sampling site, near the river mouth, a slight recovery was observed. Apart from organic and inorganic pollution other environmental factors such as flow velocity and the nature of the riverbed, also play a significant role in the occurrence of the organisms. It is concluded that protective measures need to be taken to restore the affected river ecosystem.The editors deeply regret to have to announce that Nicole Frantzen died in a train accident on 30 November 1992. 相似文献
5.
The Eurasian Badger occurs throughout the Palaearctic, and in all states of Europe west of the border with the former Soviet Union. Within this area it is absent only from the arctic zones, high-altitude areas, and some islands. The Badger is currently a protected species in the UK, the Irish Republic, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Albania, Greece, Estonia, Luxembourg and Hungary, but Luxembourg and Hungary are to reconsider protected status. Elsewhere, the species is either considered as small-game or as a pest, hunting being regulated by closed seasons. At present Finland and Burgenland (Austria) afford protection to breeding females, whilst Bulgaria, Macedonia and the Austrian Bundesländer of Steiermark and Salzburg permit Badger hunting throughout the year. Where the species is protected, provisions usually exist for the removal or culling of ‘pest’ individuals. The official European game-bag currently totals about 118,000 Badgers, but poaching is common, particularly in the UK and Ireland. Published population estimates, coupled with national population minima obtained by extrapolation from game-bag statistics, indicate a minimum European Badger population of 1,220,000; the true figure may exceed this considerably. Badger populations appear to be either stable or increasing throughout much of Europe, although no data are currently available for the populations of Greece, Italy, Spain, Croatia, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Portugal. Badgers are uncommon in the Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium, the Slovak Republic, and possibly Poland. Only the populations of Albania and possibly of some parts of the former Yugoslavia appear to be decreasing. The Dutch population remains at considerable risk, despite modest recent increases. The population status of the endemic sub-species of Crete and Rhodes remain uncertain and require urgent clarification. A series of management recommendations are proposed to improve the status of the Badger in Europe. 相似文献
6.
Christina F. M. van der Donk Jeroen H. B. van de Bovenkamp Els I. G. B. De Brauwer Patrick De Mol Karl-Heinz Feldhoff Wiltrud M. Kalka-Moll Sita Nys Inge Thoelen Thera A. M. Trienekens Ellen E. Stobberingh 《PloS one》2012,7(10)
We determined the prevalence and spread of antibiotic resistance and the characteristics of ESBL producing and/or multi drug resistant (MDR) Escherichia coli isolates collected from urine samples from urology services in the Euregio Meuse-Rhine, the border region of the Netherlands (n = 176), Belgium (n = 126) and Germay (n = 119). Significant differences in resistance between the three regions were observed. Amoxicillin-clavulanic acid resistance ranged from 24% in the Netherlands to 39% in Belgium (p = 0.018), from 20% to 40% (p<0.004) for the fluoroquinolones and from 20% to 40% (p = 0.018) for the folate antagonists. Resistance to nitrofurantoin was less than 5%. The prevalence of ESBL producing isolates varied from 2% among the Dutch isolates to 8% among the German ones (p = 0.012) and were mainly CTX-M 15. The prevalence of MDR isolates among the Dutch, German and Belgian isolates was 11%, 17% and 27%, respectively (p< = 0.001 for the Belgian compared with the Dutch isolates). The majority of the MDR and ESBL producing isolates belonged to ST131. This study indicates that most antibiotics used as first choice oral empiric treatment for UTIs (amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, fluoroquinolones and folate antagonists) are not appropriate for this purpose and that MDR strains such as CTX-M producing ST131 have spread in the entire Euregion. Our data stress the importance of ward specific surveillance to optimize empiric treatment. Also, prudent use of antibiotics and further research to alternative agents are warranted. 相似文献
7.
Within a timespan of a few decadesm the harbour seal almost completely disappeared from the estuaries in the south-west of the Netherlands. In 1960 a population of around 350 animals still lived in the Oosterschelde and Westerschelde area. About a quarter of this population lived in the Oosterschelde. At present less than 17 animals can be regularly observed in the whole area. Human influences are responsible for the rapid decline of the population. Initially a high hunting pressure and later environmental pollution are the main causes. Loss of habitat and disturbance at the resting places are additional important factors. The Oosterschelde still is a suitable habitat for seals. A short term natural development of a viable population in the area is not to be expected. Only with human help through active management, i.e. reintroduction of rehabilitated seals (preferably originating from that area) and strict conservation of the extant Oosterschelde seal population, accompanied by environmental sanitation of the neighbouring waters, can the current southern Dutch harbour seal population increase. 相似文献
8.
Gert Jan Boender Gonnie Nodelijk Thomas J Hagenaars Armin RW Elbers Mart CM de Jong 《BMC veterinary research》2008,4(1):9
Background
In the recent past, the introduction of Classical Swine Fever Virus (CSFV) followed by between-herd spread has given rise to a number of large epidemics in The Netherlands and Belgium. Both these countries are pork-exporting countries. Particularly important in these epidemics has been the occurrence of substantial "neighborhood transmission" from herd to herd in the presence of base-line control measures prescribed by EU legislation. Here we propose a calculation procedure to map out "high-risk areas" for local between-herd spread of CSFV as a tool to support decision making on prevention and control of CSFV outbreaks. In this procedure the identification of such areas is based on an estimated inter-herd distance dependent probability of neighborhood transmission or "local transmission". Using this distance-dependent probability, we derive a threshold value for the local density of herds. In areas with local herd density above threshold, local transmission alone can already lead to epidemic spread, whereas in below-threshold areas this is not the case. The first type of area is termed 'high-risk' for spread of CSFV, while the latter type is termed 'low-risk'.Results
As we show for the case of The Netherlands, once the distance-dependent probability of local transmission has been estimated from CSFV outbreak data, it is possible to produce a map of the country in which areas of high-risk herds and of low-risk herds are identified. We made these maps even more informative by estimating border zones between the two types of areas. In these border zones the risk of local transmission of infection to a nearby high-risk area exceeds a certain level.Conclusion
The risk maps provide an easily understandable visualization of the spatial heterogeneities in transmission risk. They serve as a tool for area-specific designs of control strategies, and possibly also for spatial planning of areas where livestock farming is allowed. Similar risk maps can in principle be constructed for other highly-transmissible livestock infections that spread via neighborhood transmission.9.
The benthic macroinvertebrate community of the River Meuse was studied at four locations in Belgium and The Netherlands from 1983–1993. Macroinvertebrates were collected from artificial substrates, placed near the river bottom from June–August. The results were analyzed using autecological information. At an upstream sampling site in the Belgian Ardennes (Hastière) the most diverse fauna was found. One quarter of the taxa found at this site are known to be confined to running waters and none of the dominant or subdominant taxa could be characterized as a specialized riverine taxon. These findings indicate an impoverished riverine fauna. This was especially the case in years with low discharge, indicating a delicately balanced ecosystem, easily susceptible to disturbances in the environment. Further downstream, in the heavily industrialized region of Liège (Hermalle) and just across the Belgian-Dutch border (Borgharen) the macroinvertebrate fauna consisted of taxa tolerating severe organic pollution. The ecosystem at these sites is on the brink of collapse. Recent results indicate an improvement of this situation at Borgharen. The macroinvertebrate fauna in the lowland reach (Keizersveer) indicates ecological recovery. It is concluded that abatement of the severe pollution must be the first step for an ecological rehabilitation of the degraded ecosystem and for the safe drinking water supply for millions of people in Belgium and The Netherlands.This article is dedicated to my friend and colleague Nicole Frantzen, who died in 1992 at the age of 27. 相似文献
10.
Spanoghe P Maes A Steurbaut W 《Communications in agricultural and applied biological sciences》2004,69(4):719-732
Groundwater and surface water is at risk of contamination from the use of some agricultural pesticides. In many circumstances pesticide contamination of water resources is more likely to result from point sources than from diffuse sources following approved application to crops in the field. Such point sources include areas on farms where pesticides are handled, filled into sprayers or where sprayers are washed down. To overcome this way of contamination different kind of bio-remediation systems are nowadays in development. In Flanders, Belgium two pilot plants of bioremediation systems for the in situ retention and/or degradation of pesticides were installed. Both systems were based on the Phytobac concept, a watertight excavation filled with straw, peat, compost and soil. The channel was made in the bottom from plastic foil. All kinds of spray rests were captured by the phytobacs. This study focuses on what level pesticides leach, bio-degrade or are retained by the filling of the phytobac. The soil-properties of the filling were investigated. Pesticide tracers were added for monitoring to both phytobacs. Soil and water samples were taken during one year. Pesticides are retained at least for one month by the filling of the phytobac. Almost no pesticide leached out. In winter hardly any pesticide degradation was observed in the filling of the phytobac. In summer no detectable pesticides were still left in the phytobacs. 相似文献
11.
Baurdoux M Snelder D De Snoo G 《Communications in agricultural and applied biological sciences》2004,69(4):765-778
Over the past ten years, the amount and number of different types of pesticides have increased significantly, which led to a growing concern about the possible adverse effects on human health and the environment. This is particularly true for countries where regulations are not strictly implemented and farmers' knowledge of safe handling is often inadequate. This paper discusses the results of a series of spray experiments to determine drift patterns along field boundaries and the exposure of farmers during their usual spraying exercises. Moreover, farmers' pesticide usage and methods of application will be described, and the effects of income and market accessibility on pesticide use patterns will be investigated. It is based on a study conducted in four villages located at increasing distance from the national highway leading to regional markets and connecting the Cagayan Valley in Northeast Luzon with Manila. The 20 pesticides encountered in this study cover 18 different active ingredients, 9 of which are classified by the WHO as 'highly hazardous' or 'moderately hazardous'. The EPA has classified at least 6 of the encountered pesticide formulations as Restricted Use Pesticides. Nevertheless, all pesticides are freely sold in stores or on markets and applied by farmers without personal protection in an unsafe manner. The farmers living nearest to the highway have the highest income and largest farms. Yet they are most at risk, having easiest access to pesticides and spraying the largest quantities of pesticides per hectare, compared to the farmers living at greater distance from the highway. It is recommended to review the list of pesticides approved for use in the Philippines and discern between Restricted and General Use Pesticides. Several recommendations for improving the implementation of pesticide policies and the IPM program are given. 相似文献
12.
Since 2008, mass mortality outbreaks have been reported in all French regions producing Pacific oysters, and in several Member States of the European Union. These mass mortality events of Pacific oysters are related to OsHV-1 infection. They occur during spring and summer periods leaving suspect the quality of the marine environment and the role of seasonal use of pesticides associated with the arrival of freshwater in oyster rearing areas. Pesticides have been also detected in French coastal waters, especially in areas of oyster production. Using PMA real-time PCR we showed that a mixture of 14 pesticides has no effect on the integrity of virus capsids from viral suspension in the conditions tested. A contact of oysters with this pesticide mixture was related to higher mortality rates among experimentally infected animals in comparison with control ones (no previous pesticide exposure before experimental infection). We therefore suggest that pesticides at realistic concentration can exert adverse effects on Pacific oysters and causes an increased susceptibility to the viral infection in experimental conditions. 相似文献
13.
Els van Dongen 《Ethnic and racial studies》2013,36(15):2566-2584
This article explores the causes, dynamics, and theoretical implications of the “localization” of ethnic entrepreneurship through “traditional” food businesses in Europe. Based on fieldwork conducted in 2014 and 2017, it analyses the emergence of “Chinese” chips shops in the Flemish province of Antwerp, Belgium. Highlighting the history of Chinese migration to Europe, it argues that a specific set of “contexts of exit” and “contexts of reception” explain this development. Important among these are Dutch language skills and long-term residence or citizenship in the Netherlands and Belgium, market saturation, and the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. The article posits that these Chinese entrepreneurs are neither “enclave entrepreneurs” nor a “middleman minority”: entering a “traditional” food sector, they must leverage on their “integration capital”. However, with this, they also become entangled in Belgian gastronationalism and gastropolitics. Finally, this “localization” also has a transnational dimension as many of these entrepreneurs re-migrated from the Netherlands. 相似文献
14.
15.
J.H. Kirkels N. de Jonge C. Kl?pping J.R. Lahpor L.A. van Herwerden A.H.M.M. Balk A.J.J.C. Bogers A.P.W.M. Maat P.A.F.M. Doevendans 《Netherlands heart journal》2006,14(12):425-430
Heart transplantation is limited by the lack of donor organs. Twenty years after the start of the Dutch transplant programmes in Rotterdam and Utrecht the situation has even worsened, despite efforts to increase the donor pool. The Dutch situation seems to be worse than in other surrounding countries, and several factors that may influence donor organ availability and organ utilisation are discussed. The indications and contraindications for heart transplantation are presented, which are rather restrictive in order to select optimal recipients for the scarce donor hearts. Detailed data on donor hearts, rejected for transplantation, are shown to give some insight into the difficult process of dealing with marginal donor organs. It is concluded that with the current low numbers of acceptable quality donor hearts, there is no lack of capacity in the two transplanting centres nor is the waiting list limiting the number of transplants. The influence of our current legal system on organ donation, which requires (prior) permission from donor and relatives, is probably limited. The most important determinants of donor organ availability are: 1. The potential donor pool, consisting of brain dead victims of (traffic) accidents and CVAs and 2. Lack of consent to a request for donation. The potential donor pool is remarkably small in the Netherlands, due to relatively low numbers of (traffic) accidents, with an almost equal number of CVA-related brain dead patients compared with neighbouring countries. Lack of consent can only be pushed back by improved public awareness of the importance of donation and improved skills of professionals in asking permission in case there is no previous consent. 相似文献
16.
The interaction of Agrobacterium Ti-plasmid DNA and plant cells 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
M Van Montagu M Holsters P Zambryski J P Hernalsteens A Depicker M De Beuckeleer G Engler M Lemmers L Willmitzer J Schell 《Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Containing papers of a Biological character. Royal Society (Great Britain)》1980,210(1180):351-365
The tumour-inducing plasmids of Agrobacterium tumefaciens (Ti-plasmids) reveal several interesting properties. They are catabolic plasmids, which, instead of rendering Agrobacterium strains capable of catabolizing compounds found in Nature, force a plant to synthesize these catabolites (denoted 'opines'). This situation is obtained by insertion of a segment of the Ti-plasmid (the T-DNA) into the plant nucleus, where T-DNA genes become expressed and intervene in the biosynthesis of these opines. Cells containing the T-DNA behave as neoplasms (crown gall cells). Southern blotting shows that the insertion process responsible for T-DNA transfer probably recognizes special sequences on the T-DNA since the length of the T-DNA segment observed in different, independently isolated tumour lines was found to be similar. For the nopaline Ti-plasmids both left-hand and right-hand borders were found to be constant. For the octopine plasmid the left border was constant and at least two classes of right-hand borders were found. Upon redifferentiation of the transformed plant cells, the T-DNA was found to be conserved in all somatic cells examined. However, small deletions at the border fragments of the T-DNA have been observed. The exact arrangement and copy number of the T-DNA in a nucleus is still under study, but genomic cloning has already revealed that an interspersed tandem arrangement is dominant in nopaline tumours. Clones containing both the right border of one T-DNA and the left border of the neighbouring tandem T-DNA were isolated. In order to identify the different T-plasmid encoded functions an extensive use was made of transposon insertion mutagenesis. When an antibiotic resistance transposon was inserted into the non-essential regions of the T-DNA, a linked transfer to the plant DNA of the transposon together with the T-DNA was observed. This indicates that Ti-plasmids are possible vectors for genetic engineering in plants. A strategy is described for insertion of any cloned DNA segment into the T-DNA. 相似文献
17.
A. Martinez-Lopez P. Encinas P. García-Valtanen E. Gomez-Casado J. M. Coll A. Estepa 《Applied microbiology and biotechnology》2013,97(7):3007-3016
Although some DNA vaccines have proved to be very efficient in field trials, their authorisation still remains limited to a few countries. This is in part due to safety issues because most of them contain viral regulatory sequences to driving the expression of the encoded antigen. This is the case of the only DNA vaccine against a fish rhabdovirus (a negative ssRNA virus), authorised in Canada, despite the important economic losses that these viruses cause to aquaculture all over the world. In an attempt to solve this problem and using as a model a non-authorised, but efficient DNA vaccine against the fish rhabdovirus, viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV), we developed a plasmid construction containing regulatory sequences exclusively from fish origin. The result was an “all-fish vector”, named pJAC-G, containing 5′ and 3′ regulatory sequences of β-acting genes from carp and zebrafish, respectively. In vitro and in vivo, pJAC-G drove a successful expression of the VHSV glycoprotein G (G), the only antigen of the virus conferring in vivo protection. Furthermore, and by means of in vitro fusion assays, it was confirmed that G protein expressed from pJAC-G was fully functional. Altogether, these results suggest that DNA vaccines containing host-homologous gene regulatory sequences might be useful for developing safer DNA vaccines, while they also might be useful for basic studies. 相似文献
18.
Lara Pivodic Koen Pardon Lieve Van den Block Viviane Van Casteren Guido Miccinesi Gé A. Donker Tomás Vega Alonso José Lozano Alonso Pierangelo Lora Aprile Bregje D. Onwuteaka-Philipsen Luc Deliens 《PloS one》2013,8(12)
Background
Due to a rising number of deaths from cancer and other chronic diseases a growing number of people experience complex symptoms and require palliative care towards the end of life. However, population-based data on the number of people receiving palliative care in Europe are scarce. The objective of this study is to examine, in four European countries, the number of people receiving palliative care in the last three months of life and the factors associated with receiving palliative care.Methods
Cross-national retrospective study. Over two years (2009–2010), GPs belonging to representative epidemiological surveillance networks in Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain registered weekly all deaths of patients (≥18 years) in their practices and the care they received in the last three months of life using a standardized form. Sudden deaths were excluded.Results
We studied 4,466 deaths. GPs perceived to have delivered palliative care to 50% of patients in Belgium, 55% in Italy, 62% in the Netherlands, and 65% in Spain (p<.001). Palliative care specialists attended to 29% of patients in the Netherlands, 39% in Italy, 45% in Spain, and 47% in Belgium (p<.001). Specialist palliative care lasted a median (inter-quartile range) of 15 (23) days in Belgium to 30 (70) days in Italy (p<.001). Cancer patients were more likely than non-cancer patients to receive palliative care in all countries as were younger patients in Italy and Spain with regard to specialist palliative care.Conclusions
Although palliative care is established in the countries studied, there are considerable differences in its provision. Two potentially underserved groups emerge non-cancer patients in all countries and older people in Italy and Spain. Future research should examine how differences in palliative care use relate to both patient characteristics and existing national health care policies. 相似文献19.
国内外蝗害治理技术现状与展望 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
本文首先概述了国内外蝗虫发生与为害的态势,总结了现阶段我国蝗虫发生与为害的主要特点:即农田飞蝗暴发频繁而且严重,草原土蝗的发生时常造成严重的经济损失,而且侵入城市干扰市民生活,我国与周边国家之间蝗虫过境迁移频繁,使用化学农药污染环境和农产品;分析了国内外蝗虫防治对策与技术的发展现状,重点介绍了应急防治和可持续治理对策、... 相似文献
20.
Johan Verbeeck Christel Faes Thomas Neyens Niel Hens Geert Verbeke Patrick Deboosere Geert Molenberghs 《Biometrics》2023,79(1):417-425
The Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has increased mortality in countries worldwide. To evaluate the impact of the pandemic on mortality, the use of excess mortality rather than reported COVID-19 deaths has been suggested. Excess mortality, however, requires estimation of mortality under nonpandemic conditions. Although many methods exist to forecast mortality, they are either complex to apply, require many sources of information, ignore serial correlation, and/or are influenced by historical excess mortality. We propose a linear mixed model that is easy to apply, requires only historical mortality data, allows for serial correlation, and down-weighs the influence of historical excess mortality. Appropriateness of the linear mixed model is evaluated with fit statistics and forecasting accuracy measures for Belgium and the Netherlands. Unlike the commonly used 5-year weekly average, the linear mixed model is forecasting the year-specific mortality, and as a result improves the estimation of excess mortality for Belgium and the Netherlands. 相似文献