Nonparametric estimation of the concordance correlation coefficient under univariate censoring

Assessing agreement is often of interest in clinical studies to evaluate the similarity of measurements produced by different raters or methods on the same subjects. Lin's (1989, Biometrics 45, 255-268) concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) has become a popular measure of agreement for correlated continuous outcomes. However, commonly used estimation methods for the CCC do not accommodate censored observations and are, therefore, not applicable for survival outcomes. In this article, we estimate the CCC nonparametrically through the bivariate survival function. The proposed estimator of the CCC is proven to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal, with a consistent bootstrap variance estimator. Furthermore, we propose a time-dependent agreement coefficient as an extension of Lin's (1989) CCC for measuring the agreement between survival times among subjects who survive beyond a specified time point. A nonparametric estimator is developed for the time-dependent agreement coefficient as well. It has the same asymptotic properties as the estimator of the CCC. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimators. A real data example from a prostate cancer study is used to illustrate the method.     

A Mixture Model for Bivariate Interval-Censored Failure Times with Dependent Susceptibility

Interval-censored failure times arise when the status with respect to an event of interest is only determined at intermittent examination times. In settings where there exists a sub-population of individuals who are not susceptible to the event of interest, latent variable models accommodating a mixture of susceptible and nonsusceptible individuals are useful. We consider such models for the analysis of bivariate interval-censored failure time data with a model for bivariate binary susceptibility indicators and a copula model for correlated failure times given joint susceptibility. We develop likelihood, composite likelihood, and estimating function methods for model fitting and inference, and assess asymptotic-relative efficiency and finite sample performance. Extensions dealing with higher-dimensional responses and current status data are also described.

     

Measuring agreement of multivariate discrete survival times using a modified weighted kappa coefficient

Summary .  Assessing agreement is often of interest in clinical studies to evaluate the similarity of measurements produced by different raters or methods on the same subjects. We present a modified weighted kappa coefficient to measure agreement between bivariate discrete survival times. The proposed kappa coefficient accommodates censoring by redistributing the mass of censored observations within the grid where the unobserved events may potentially happen. A generalized modified weighted kappa is proposed for multivariate discrete survival times. We estimate the modified kappa coefficients nonparametrically through a multivariate survival function estimator. The asymptotic properties of the kappa estimators are established and the performance of the estimators are examined through simulation studies of bivariate and trivariate survival times. We illustrate the application of the modified kappa coefficient in the presence of censored observations with data from a prostate cancer study.     

Regression analysis of multivariate interval-censored failure time data with application to tumorigenicity experiments

This paper discusses multivariate interval-censored failure time data that occur when there exist several correlated survival times of interest and only interval-censored data are available for each survival time. Such data occur in many fields. One is tumorigenicity experiments, which usually concern different types of tumors, tumors occurring in different locations of animals, or together. For regression analysis of such data, we develop a marginal inference approach using the additive hazards model and apply it to a set of bivariate interval-censored data arising from a tumorigenicity experiment. Simulation studies are conducted for the evaluation of the presented approach and suggest that the approach performs well for practical situations.     

A semiparametric estimator of the bivariate distribution function for censored gap times

Let (T(1), T(2)) be gap times corresponding to two consecutive events, which are observed subject to random right-censoring. In this paper, a semiparametric estimator of the bivariate distribution function of (T(1), T(2)) and, more generally, of a functional E [φ(T(1),T(2))] is proposed. We assume that the probability of censoring for T(2) given the (possibly censored) gap times belongs to a parametric family of binary regression curves. We investigate the conditions under which the introduced estimator is consistent. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimator and of its bootstrap standard error through simulations. The main conclusion of this paper is that the semiparametric estimator may be much more efficient than purely nonparametric methods. Real data illustration is included.     

Multivariate correlation estimator for inferring functional relationships from replicated genome-wide data

Estimating pairwise correlation from replicated genome-scale (a.k.a. OMICS) data is fundamental to cluster functionally relevant biomolecules to a cellular pathway. The popular Pearson correlation coefficient estimates bivariate correlation by averaging over replicates. It is not completely satisfactory since it introduces strong bias while reducing variance. We propose a new multivariate correlation estimator that models all replicates as independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples from the multivariate normal distribution. We derive the estimator by maximizing the likelihood function. For small sample data, we provide a resampling-based statistical inference procedure, and for moderate to large sample data, we provide an asymptotic statistical inference procedure based on the Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT). We demonstrate advantages of the new multivariate correlation estimator over Pearson bivariate correlation estimator using simulations and real-world data analysis examples. AVAILABILITY: The estimator and statistical inference procedures have been implemented in an R package 'CORREP' that is available from CRAN [http://cran.r-project.org] and Bioconductor [http://www.bioconductor.org/]. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.     

Nonparametric estimation of cause-specific cross hazard ratio with bivariate competing risks data

We propose an alternative representation of the cause-specificcross hazard ratio for bivariate competing risks data. The representationleads to a simple plug-in estimator, unlike an existing ad hocprocedure. The large sample properties of the resulting inferencesare established. Simulations and a real data example demonstratethat the proposed methodology may substantially reduce the computationalburden of the existing procedure, while maintaining similarefficiency properties.     

A bivariate pseudolikelihood for incomplete longitudinal binary data with nonignorable nonmonotone missingness

For analyzing longitudinal binary data with nonignorable and nonmonotone missing responses, a full likelihood method is complicated algebraically, and often requires intensive computation, especially when there are many follow-up times. As an alternative, a pseudolikelihood approach has been proposed in the literature under minimal parametric assumptions. This formulation only requires specification of the marginal distributions of the responses and missing data mechanism, and uses an independence working assumption. However, this estimator can be inefficient for estimating both time-varying and time-stationary effects under moderate to strong within-subject associations among repeated responses. In this article, we propose an alternative estimator, based on a bivariate pseudolikelihood, and demonstrate in simulations that the proposed method can be much more efficient than the previous pseudolikelihood obtained under the assumption of independence. We illustrate the method using longitudinal data on CD4 counts from two clinical trials of HIV-infected patients.     

On cross-odds ratio for multivariate competing risks data

The cross-odds ratio is defined as the ratio of the conditional odds of the occurrence of one cause-specific event for one subject given the occurrence of the same or a different cause-specific event for another subject in the same cluster over the unconditional odds of occurrence of the cause-specific event. It is a measure of the association between the correlated cause-specific failure times within a cluster. The joint cumulative incidence function can be expressed as a function of the marginal cumulative incidence functions and the cross-odds ratio. Assuming that the marginal cumulative incidence functions follow a generalized semiparametric model, this paper studies the parametric regression modeling of the cross-odds ratio. A set of estimating equations are proposed for the unknown parameters and the asymptotic properties of the estimators are explored. Non-parametric estimation of the cross-odds ratio is also discussed. The proposed procedures are applied to the Danish twin data to model the associations between twins in their times to natural menopause and to investigate whether the association differs among monozygotic and dizygotic twins and how these associations have changed over time.     

Nonparametric regression using local kernel estimating equations for correlated failure time data

We study nonparametric regression for correlated failure timedata. Kernel estimating equations are used to estimate nonparametriccovariate effects. Independent and weighted-kernel estimatingequations are studied. The derivative of the nonparametric functionis first estimated and the nonparametric function is then estimatedby integrating the derivative estimator. We show that the nonparametrickernel estimator is consistent for any arbitrary working correlationmatrix and that its asymptotic variance is minimized by assumingworking independence. We evaluate the performance of the proposedkernel estimator using simulation studies, and apply the proposedmethod to the western Kenya parasitaemia data.     

A new measure of time-varying association for shared frailty models with bivariate current status data

In this paper, a new measure for assessing the temporal variation in the strength of association in bivariate current status data is proposed. This novel measure is relevant for shared frailty models. We show that this measure is particularly convenient, owing to its connection with the relative frailty variance and its interpretability in suggesting appropriate frailty models. We introduce a method of estimation and standard errors for this measure. We discuss its properties and compare it to an existing measure of association applicable to current status data. Small sample performance of the measure in realistic scenarios is investigated using simulations. The methods are illustrated with bivariate serological survey data on a pair of infections, where the time-varying association is likely to represent heterogeneities in activity levels and/or susceptibility to infection.     

An adjusted coefficient of determination (R2) for generalized linear mixed models in one go

The coefficient of determination (R²) is a common measure of goodness of fit for linear models. Various proposals have been made for extension of this measure to generalized linear and mixed models. When the model has random effects or correlated residual effects, the observed responses are correlated. This paper proposes a new coefficient of determination for this setting that accounts for any such correlation. A key advantage of the proposed method is that it only requires the fit of the model under consideration, with no need to also fit a null model. Also, the approach entails a bias correction in the estimator assessing the variance explained by fixed effects. Three examples are used to illustrate new measure. A simulation shows that the proposed estimator of the new coefficient of determination has only minimal bias.     

A random effects model for multivariate failure time data from multicenter clinical trials

A random effects model for analyzing multivariate failure time data is proposed. The work is motivated by the need for assessing the mean treatment effect in a multicenter clinical trial study, assuming that the centers are a random sample from an underlying population. An estimating equation for the mean hazard ratio parameter is proposed. The proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A variance estimator, based on large sample theory, is proposed. Simulation results indicate that the proposed estimator performs well in finite samples. The proposed variance estimator effectively corrects the bias of the naive variance estimator, which assumes independence of individuals within a group. The methodology is illustrated with a clinical trial data set from the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction. This shows that the variability of the treatment effect is higher than found by means of simpler models.     

Estimation of the hazards ratio in two grouped samples

A simple estimator of the hazards ratio of two grouped samples is proposed. If the number of time grouping intervals is fixed, the following asymptotics hold: unbiasedness, and full efficiency when the true hazards ratio is 1 and the probability of failure in each interval is small. Under the latter condition, the estimator is equivalent to "MHP" estimator (Mantel-Haenszel estimator for a Poisson model). Simulations show that this estimator performs better than others when grouping is coarse. An asymptotically unbiased estimator of its variance is proposed.     

Regression analysis of a disease onset distribution using diagnosis data

Summary .   We consider methods for estimating the effect of a covariate on a disease onset distribution when the observed data structure consists of right-censored data on diagnosis times and current status data on onset times amongst individuals who have not yet been diagnosed. Dunson and Baird (2001, Biometrics 57, 306–403) approached this problem using maximum likelihood, under the assumption that the ratio of the diagnosis and onset distributions is monotonic nondecreasing. As an alternative, we propose a two-step estimator, an extension of the approach of van der Laan, Jewell, and Petersen (1997, Biometrika 84, 539–554) in the single sample setting, which is computationally much simpler and requires no assumptions on this ratio. A simulation study is performed comparing estimates obtained from these two approaches, as well as that from a standard current status analysis that ignores diagnosis data. Results indicate that the Dunson and Baird estimator outperforms the two-step estimator when the monotonicity assumption holds, but the reverse is true when the assumption fails. The simple current status estimator loses only a small amount of precision in comparison to the two-step procedure but requires monitoring time information for all individuals. In the data that motivated this work, a study of uterine fibroids and chemical exposure to dioxin, the monotonicity assumption is seen to fail. Here, the two-step and current status estimators both show no significant association between the level of dioxin exposure and the hazard for onset of uterine fibroids; the two-step estimator of the relative hazard associated with increasing levels of exposure has the least estimated variance amongst the three estimators considered.     

Ratio estimation with measurement error in the auxiliary variate

Summary .  With auxiliary information that is well correlated with the primary variable of interest, ratio estimation of the finite population total may be much more efficient than alternative estimators that do not make use of the auxiliary variate. The well-known properties of ratio estimators are perturbed when the auxiliary variate is measured with error. In this contribution we examine the effect of measurement error in the auxiliary variate on the design-based statistical properties of three common ratio estimators. We examine the case of systematic measurement error as well as measurement error that varies according to a fixed distribution. Aside from presenting expressions for the bias and variance of these estimators when they are contaminated with measurement error we provide numerical results based on a specific population. Under systematic measurement error, the biasing effect is asymmetric around zero, and precision may be improved or degraded depending on the magnitude of the error. Under variable measurement error, bias of the conventional ratio-of-means estimator increased slightly with increasing error dispersion, but far less than the increased bias of the conventional mean-of-ratios estimator. In similar fashion, the variance of the mean-of-ratios estimator incurs a greater loss of precision with increasing error dispersion compared with the other estimators we examine. Overall, the ratio-of-means estimator appears to be remarkably resistant to the effects of measurement error in the auxiliary variate.     

Analysis of multivariate recurrent event data with time‐dependent covariates and informative censoring

Multivariate recurrent event data are usually encountered in many clinical and longitudinal studies in which each study subject may experience multiple recurrent events. For the analysis of such data, most existing approaches have been proposed under the assumption that the censoring times are noninformative, which may not be true especially when the observation of recurrent events is terminated by a failure event. In this article, we consider regression analysis of multivariate recurrent event data with both time‐dependent and time‐independent covariates where the censoring times and the recurrent event process are allowed to be correlated via a frailty. The proposed joint model is flexible where both the distributions of censoring and frailty variables are left unspecified. We propose a pairwise pseudolikelihood approach and an estimating equation‐based approach for estimating coefficients of time‐dependent and time‐independent covariates, respectively. The large sample properties of the proposed estimates are established, while the finite‐sample properties are demonstrated by simulation studies. The proposed methods are applied to the analysis of a set of bivariate recurrent event data from a study of platelet transfusion reactions.     

Estimating cumulative treatment effects in the presence of nonproportional hazards

Summary .   Often in medical studies of time to an event, the treatment effect is not constant over time. In the context of Cox regression modeling, the most frequent solution is to apply a model that assumes the treatment effect is either piecewise constant or varies smoothly over time, i.e., the Cox nonproportional hazards model. This approach has at least two major limitations. First, it is generally difficult to assess whether the parametric form chosen for the treatment effect is correct. Second, in the presence of nonproportional hazards, investigators are usually more interested in the cumulative than the instantaneous treatment effect (e.g., determining if and when the survival functions cross). Therefore, we propose an estimator for the aggregate treatment effect in the presence of nonproportional hazards. Our estimator is based on the treatment-specific baseline cumulative hazards estimated under a stratified Cox model. No functional form for the nonproportionality need be assumed. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived, and the finite-sample properties are assessed in simulation studies. Pointwise and simultaneous confidence bands of the estimator can be computed. The proposed method is applied to data from a national organ failure registry.     

Interval estimation of the mean difference in the analysis of over‐dispersed count data

This paper focuses on the development and study of the confidence interval procedures for mean difference between two treatments in the analysis of over‐dispersed count data in order to measure the efficacy of the experimental treatment over the standard treatment in clinical trials. In this study, two simple methods are proposed. One is based on a sandwich estimator of the variance of the regression estimator using the generalized estimating equations (GEEs) approach of Zeger and Liang (1986) and the other is based on an estimator of the variance of a ratio estimator (1977). We also develop three other procedures following the procedures studied by Newcombe (1998) and the procedure studied by Beal (1987). As assessed by Monte Carlo simulations, all the procedures have reasonably well coverage properties. Moreover, the interval procedure based on GEEs outperforms other interval procedures in the sense that it maintains the coverage very close to the nominal coverage level and that it has the shortest interval length, a satisfactory location property, and a very simple form, which can be easily implemented in the applied fields. Illustrative applications in the biological studies for these confidence interval procedures are also presented.     

A marginal mixed baseline hazards model for multivariate failure time data

In multivariate failure time data analysis, a marginal regression modeling approach is often preferred to avoid assumptions on the dependence structure among correlated failure times. In this paper, a marginal mixed baseline hazards model is introduced. Estimating equations are proposed for the estimation of the marginal hazard ratio parameters. The proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically Gaussian with a robust covariance matrix that can be consistently estimated. Simulation studies indicate the adequacy of the proposed methodology for practical sample sizes. The methodology is illustrated with a data set from the Framingham Heart Study.