Evolution of virulence in a heterogeneous host population

Abstract.— There is a large body of theoretical studies that investigate factors that affect the evolution of virulence, that is parasite-induced host mortality. In these studies the host population is assumed to be genetically homogeneous. However, many parasites have a broad range of host types they infect, and trade-offs between the parasite virulence in different host types may exist. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of host heterogeneity on the evolution of parasite virulence. By analyzing a simple model that describes the replication of different parasite strains in a population of two different host types, we determine the optimal level of virulence in both host types and find the conditions under which strains that specialize in one host type dominate the parasite population. Furthermore, we show that intrahost evolution of the parasite during an infection may lead to stable polymorphisms and could introduce evolutionary branching in the parasite population.     

Epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of targeted vaccination

Recent theory has examined the way in which vaccination strategies are expected to influence the evolution of parasite virulence. Most of this work has assumed that vaccination is imposed on a homogeneous host population. However, host populations are typically composed of different types of individuals, with each type responding differently to infection. Moreover, actual interventions often focus treatment on those hosts that are likely to suffer the most ill effects of a particular disease. Here we consider the epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of interventions that focus vaccination on individuals expressing the greatest susceptibility to infection and/or the greatest vulnerability to mortality once infected. Our results indicate that predictions are very sensitive to the nature and degree of heterogeneity in susceptibility and vulnerability. They further suggest that accounting for realistic kinds of heterogeneity when contemplating targeted treatment plans and policies might provide a new tool in the design of more effective virulence management strategies.     

The evolution of parasite host range in heterogeneous host populations

Theory on the evolution of niche width argues that resource heterogeneity selects for niche breadth. For parasites, this theory predicts that parasite populations will evolve, or maintain, broader host ranges when selected in genetically diverse host populations relative to homogeneous host populations. To test this prediction, we selected the bacterial parasite Serratia marcescens to kill Caenorhabditis elegans in populations that were genetically heterogeneous (50% mix of two experimental genotypes) or homogeneous (100% of either genotype). After 20 rounds of selection, we compared the host range of selected parasites by measuring parasite fitness (i.e. virulence, the selected fitness trait) on the two focal host genotypes and on a novel host genotype. As predicted, heterogeneous host populations selected for parasites with a broader host range: these parasite populations gained or maintained virulence on all host genotypes. This result contrasted with selection in homogeneous populations of one host genotype. Here, host range contracted, with parasite populations gaining virulence on the focal host genotype and losing virulence on the novel host genotype. This pattern was not, however, repeated with selection in homogeneous populations of the second host genotype: these parasite populations did not gain virulence on the focal host genotype, nor did they lose virulence on the novel host genotype. Our results indicate that host heterogeneity can maintain broader host ranges in parasite populations. Individual host genotypes, however, vary in the degree to which they select for specialization in parasite populations.     

Multiple infections, immune dynamics, and the evolution of virulence

Understanding the effect of multiple infections is essential for the prediction (and eventual control) of virulence evolution. Some theoretical studies have considered the possibility that several strains coexist in the same host (coinfection), but few have taken their within-host dynamics explicitly into account. Here, we develop a nested approach based on a simple model for the interaction of parasite strains with their host's immune system. We study virulence evolution by linking the within-host dynamics to an epidemiological framework that incorporates multiple infections. Our model suggests that antigenically similar parasite strains cannot coexist in the long term inside a host. We also find that the optimal level of virulence increases with the efficiency of multiple infections. Finally, we notice that coinfections create heterogeneity in the host population (with susceptible hosts and infected hosts), which can lead to evolutionary branching in the parasite population and the emergence of a hypervirulent parasite strategy. We interpret this result as a parasite specialization to the infectious state of the hosts. Our study has experimental and theoretical implications in a virulence management perspective.     

Spatial structure,host heterogeneity and parasite virulence: implications for vaccine‐driven evolution

Natural host‐parasite interactions exhibit considerable variation in host quality, with profound consequences for disease ecology and evolution. For instance, treatments (such as vaccination) may select for more transmissible or virulent strains. Previous theory has addressed the ecological and evolutionary impact of host heterogeneity under the assumption that hosts and parasites disperse globally. Here, we investigate the joint effects of host heterogeneity and local dispersal on the evolution of parasite life‐history traits. We first formalise a general theoretical framework combining variation in host quality and spatial structure. We then apply this model to the specific problem of parasite evolution following vaccination. We show that, depending on the type of vaccine, spatial structure may select for higher or lower virulence compared to the predictions of non‐spatial theory. We discuss the implications of our results for disease management, and their broader fundamental relevance for other causes of host heterogeneity in nature.     

Host genotype and genetic diversity shape the evolution of a novel bacterial infection

Pathogens continue to emerge from increased contact with novel host species. Whilst these hosts can represent distinct environments for pathogens, the impacts of host genetic background on how a pathogen evolves post-emergence are unclear. In a novel interaction, we experimentally evolved a pathogen (Staphylococcus aureus) in populations of wild nematodes (Caenorhabditis elegans) to test whether host genotype and genetic diversity affect pathogen evolution. After ten rounds of selection, we found that pathogen virulence evolved to vary across host genotypes, with differences in host metal ion acquisition detected as a possible driver of increased host exploitation. Diverse host populations selected for the highest levels of pathogen virulence, but infectivity was constrained, unlike in host monocultures. We hypothesise that population heterogeneity might pool together individuals that contribute disproportionately to the spread of infection or to enhanced virulence. The genomes of evolved populations were sequenced, and it was revealed that pathogens selected in distantly-related host genotypes diverged more than those in closely-related host genotypes. S. aureus nevertheless maintained a broad host range. Our study provides unique empirical insight into the evolutionary dynamics that could occur in other novel infections of wildlife and humans.Subject terms: Molecular evolution, Bacterial evolution, Bacterial genetics     

Interactions between host sex and age of exposure modify the virulence–transmission trade‐off

The patterns of immunity conferred by host sex or age represent two sources of host heterogeneity that can potentially shape the evolutionary trajectory of disease. With each host sex or age encountered, a pathogen's optimal exploitative strategy may change, leading to considerable variation in expression of pathogen transmission and virulence. To date, these host characteristics have been studied in the context of host fitness alone, overlooking the effects of host sex and age on the fundamental virulence–transmission trade‐off faced by pathogens. Here, we explicitly address the interaction of these characteristics and find that host sex and age at exposure to a pathogen affect age‐specific patterns of mortality and the balance between pathogen transmission and virulence. When infecting age‐structured male and female Daphnia magna with different genotypes of Pasteuria ramosa, we found that infection increased mortality rates across all age classes for females, whereas mortality only increased in the earliest age class for males. Female hosts allowed a variety of trade‐offs between transmission and virulence to arise with each age and pathogen genotype. In contrast, this variation was dampened in males, with pathogens exhibiting declines in both virulence and transmission with increasing host age. Our results suggest that differences in exploitation potential of males and females to a pathogen can interact with host age to allow different virulence strategies to coexist, and illustrate the potential for these widespread sources of host heterogeneity to direct the evolution of disease in natural populations.     

Sex against virulence: the coevolution of parasitic diseases

Reciprocal selection is the underlying mechanism for host-parasite coevolutionary arms races. Its driving force is the reduction of host lifespan or fecundity that is caused by a parasite. Parasites evolve to optimize host exploitation, while hosts evolve to minimize the 'parasite-induced' loss of fitness (virulence). Research on the evolution of virulence has mostly emphasized the role of parasite evolution in determining virulence. However, host evolution, accelerated by sexual recombination, contributes to the evolution and expression of virulence as well. The Red Queen hypothesis predicts that genetic variation among host offspring facilitates selection for reduced virulence. Here, we outline a synthesis between current thinking about the evolution of virulence and the evolution of sex.     

Host-parasite interactions for virulence and resistance in a malaria model system

A rich body of theory on the evolution of virulence (disease severity) attempts to predict the conditions that cause parasites to harm their hosts, and a central assumption to many of these models is that the relative virulence of pathogen strains is stable across a range of host types. In contrast, a largely nonoverlapping body of theory on coevolution assumes that the fitness effects of parasites on hosts is not stable across host genotype, but instead depends on host genotype by parasite genotype interactions. If such genetic interactions largely determine virulence, it becomes difficult to predict the strength and direction of selection on virulence. In this study, we tested for host-by-parasite interactions in a medically relevant vertebrate disease model: the rodent malaria parasite Plasmodium chabaudi in laboratory mice. We found that parasite and particularly host main effects explained most of the variance in virulence (anaemia and weight loss), resistance (parasite burden) and transmission potential. Host-by-parasite interactions were of limited influence, but nevertheless had significant effects. This raises the possibility that host heterogeneity may affect the rate of any parasite response to selection on virulence. This study of rodent malaria is one of the first tests for host-by-parasite interactions in any vertebrate disease; host-by-parasite interactions typical of those assumed in coevolutionary models were present, but were by no means pervasive.     

Host mortality, predation and the evolution of parasite virulence

One of the most accepted views in the theoretical literature on virulence evolution is that a parasite's virulence will evolve to higher levels when its host's background mortality rate increases. Surprisingly, however, although many sources of background mortality involve predation, there has not yet been any theoretical research that explicitly considers how the dynamics of this important ecological interaction affects virulence evolution. Here, we consider how predation affects virulence evolution by explicitly introducing a predator into a classical susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model. We find that, contrary to previous predictions, different sources of host mortality affect virulence evolution in different ways. Moreover, the way in which virulence evolution is affected depends on how tightly coupled the predator's dynamics are to the host population, and this can result in somewhat counterintuitive results. For example, indirect ecological effects can cause elevated host mortality to result in the evolution of lower parasite virulence, even if this elevated mortality arises from factors unrelated to predation.     

Evolution of pathogen virulence: the role of variation in host phenotype

Selection on pathogens tends to favour the evolution of growth and reproductive rates and a concomitant level of virulence (damage done to the host) that maximizes pathogen fitness. Yet, because hosts often pose varying selective environments to pathogens, one level of virulence may not be appropriate for all host types. Indeed, if a level of virulence confers high fitness to the pathogen in one host phenotype but low fitness in another host phenotype, alternative virulence strategies may be maintained in the pathogen population. Such strategies can occur either as polymorphism, where different strains of pathogen evolve specialized virulence strategies in different host phenotypes or as polyphenism, where pathogens facultatively express alternative virulence strategies depending on host phenotype. Polymorphism potentially leads to specialist pathogens capable of infecting a limited range of host phenotypes, whereas polyphenism potentially leads to generalist pathogens capable of infecting a wider range of hosts. Evaluating how variation among hosts affects virulence evolution can provide insight into pathogen diversity and is critical in determining how host pathogen interactions affect the phenotypic evolution of both hosts and pathogens.     

The evolution of parasite virulence, superinfection, and host resistance

We analyze the evolutionary consequences of host resistance (the ability to decrease the probability of being infected by parasites) for the evolution of parasite virulence (the deleterious effect of a parasite on its host). When only single infections occur, host resistance does not affect the evolution of parasite virulence. However, when superinfections occur, resistance tends to decrease the evolutionarily stable (ES) level of parasite virulence. We first study a simple model in which the host does not coevolve with the parasite (i.e., the frequency of resistant hosts is independent of the parasite). We show that a higher proportion of resistant host decreases the ES level of parasite virulence. Higher levels of the efficiency of host resistance, however, do not always decrease the ES parasite virulence. The implications of these results for virulence management (evolutionary consequences of public health policies) are discussed. Second, we analyze the case where host resistance is allowed to coevolve with parasite virulence using the classical gene-for-gene (GFG) model of host-parasite interaction. It is shown that GFG coevolution leads to lower parasite virulence (in comparison with a fully susceptible host population). The model clarifies and relates the different components of the cost of parasitism: infectivity (ability to infect the host) and virulence (deleterious effect) in an evolutionary perspective.     

Shared control of epidemiological traits in a coevolutionary model of host-parasite interactions

Most models concerning the evolution of a parasite's virulence and its host's resistance assume that each component of the relationship (transmission, virulence, recovery, etc.) is controlled by either the host or the parasite but not by both. We present a model that describes the coevolution of host and parasite, assuming that the rate of transmission or the virulence depends on both genotypes. The evolution of these traits is constrained by trade-offs that account for costs of defense and attack strategies, in line with previous studies on the separate evolution of the host and the parasite. Considering shared control by the host and the parasite in determining the traits of the relationship leads to several novel predictions. First, the host should evolve maximal investment in defense against parasites with an intermediate replication rate. Second, the evolution of the parasite strongly depends on the way the host's defense is described. Third, the coevolutionary process may lead to decreasing the parasite's virulence as a response to a rise in the host's background mortality, contrary to classical predictions.     

How parasite interaction strategies alter virulence evolution in multi‐parasite communities

The majority of organisms host multiple parasite species, each of which can interact with hosts and competitors through a diverse range of direct and indirect mechanisms. These within‐host interactions can directly alter the mortality rate of coinfected hosts and alter the evolution of virulence (parasite‐induced host mortality). Yet we still know little about how within‐host interactions affect the evolution of parasite virulence in multi‐parasite communities. Here, we modeled the virulence evolution of two coinfecting parasites in a host population in which parasites interacted through cross immunity, immune suppression, immunopathology, or spite. We show (1) that these within‐host interactions have different effects on virulence evolution when all parasites interact with each other in the same way versus when coinfecting parasites have unique interaction strategies, (2) that these interactions cause the evolution of lower virulence in some hosts, and higher virulence in other hosts, depending on the hosts infection status, and (3) that for cross immunity and spite, whether parasites increase or decrease the evolutionarily stable virulence in coinfected hosts depended on interaction strength. These results improve our understanding of virulence evolution in complex parasite communities, and show that virulence evolution must be understood at the community scale.     

Evolution of virulence driven by predator-prey interaction: Possible consequences for population dynamics

The evolution of pathogen virulence in natural populations has conventionally been considered as a result of selection caused by the interactions of the host with its pathogen(s). The host population, however, is generally embedded in complex trophic interactions with other populations in the community, in particular, intensive predation on the infected host can increase its mortality, and this can affect the course of virulence evolution. Reciprocally, in the long run, the evolution of virulence within an infected host can affect the patterns of population dynamics of a predator consuming the host (e.g. resulting in large amplitude oscillations, causing a severe drop in the population size, etc.). Surprisingly, neither the effect of predation on the evolution of virulence within a host, nor the influence of the evolution of virulence upon the consumer's dynamics has been addressed in the literature yet. In this paper, we consider a classical S-I ecoepidemiological model in which the infected host is consumed by a predator. We are particularly interested in the evolutionarily stable virulence of the pathogen in the model and its dependence upon ecologically relevant parameters. We show that predation can prominently shift the evolutionarily stable virulence towards more severe strains as compared to the same system without predation. We demonstrate that the evolution of virulence can result in a succession of dynamical regimes and can even lead to the extinction of the predator in the long run. The presence of a predator can indirectly affect the evolution within its prey since the evolutionarily stable virulence becomes a function of the prey growth rate, which would not be the case in a predator-free system. We find that the evolutionarily stable virulence largely depends on the carrying capacity K of the prey in a non-monotonous way. The model also predicts that in an eutrophic environment the shift of virulence towards evolutionarily stable benign strains can cause demographically stochastic evolutionary suicide, resulting in the extinction of both species, thus artificially maintaining severe strains of pathogen can enhance the persistence of both species.     

Parasite evolution in response to sex‐based host heterogeneity in resistance and tolerance

Heterogenity between sexes in terms of both the level and the type of immune response to infection is documented in many species, but its role on parasite evolution is only beginning to be explored. We adopt an evolutionary epidemiology approach to study how the ability of a host to respond to infection through active immunity (resistance) or through minimizing deleterious effects of a given parasite load (tolerance) affects the evolution of parasite virulence. Consistently with earlier models, we find that increases in host resistance and tolerance both favour more virulent parasite strains. However, we show that qualitatively different results can be obtained if dimorphism between the sexes occurs through resistance or through tolerance depending on the contact pattern between the sexes. Finally, we find that variations in host sex ratio can amplify the consequences of heterogeneity for parasite evolution. These results are analysed in the light of several examples from the literature to illustrate the prevalence of sexually dimorphic immune responses and the potential for further study of the role of sexual dimorphism on parasite evolution. Such studies are likely to be highly relevant for improving treatment of chronic infections and control of infectious diseases, and understanding the role of sex in immune function.     

Parasite and host assemblages: embracing the reality will improve our knowledge of parasite transmission and virulence

Interactions involving several parasite species (multi-parasitized hosts) or several host species (multi-host parasites) are the rule in nature. Only a few studies have investigated these realistic, but complex, situations from an evolutionary perspective. Consequently, their impact on the evolution of parasite virulence and transmission remains poorly understood. The mechanisms by which multiple infections may influence virulence and transmission include the dynamics of intrahost competition, mediation by the host immune system and an increase in parasite genetic recombination. Theoretical investigations have yet to be conducted to determine which of these mechanisms are likely to be key factors in the evolution of virulence and transmission. In contrast, the relationship between multi-host parasites and parasite virulence and transmission has seen some theoretical investigation. The key factors in these models are the trade-off between virulence across different host species, variation in host species quality and patterns of transmission. The empirical studies on multi-host parasites suggest that interspecies transmission plays a central role in the evolution of virulence, but as yet no complete picture of the phenomena involved is available. Ultimately, determining how complex host–parasite interactions impact the evolution of host–parasite relationships will require the development of cross-disciplinary studies linking the ecology of quantitative networks with the evolution of virulence.     

HOST LIFE HISTORY AND THE EVOLUTION OF PARASITE VIRULENCE

Abstract.— We present a general epidemiological model of host‐parasite interactions that includes various forms of superinfection. We use this model to study the effects of different host life‐history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence. In particular, we analyze the effects of natural host death rate on the evolutionarily stable parasite virulence. We show that, contrary to classical predictions, an increase in the natural host death rate may select for lower parasite virulence if some form of superinfection occurs. This result is in agreement with the experimental results and the verbal argument presented by Ebert and Mangin (1997). This experiment is discussed in the light of the present model. We also point out the importance of superinfections for the effect of nonspecific immunity on the evolution of virulence. In a broader perspective, this model demonstrates that the occurrence of multiple infections may qualitatively alter classical predictions concerning the effects of various host life‐history traits on the evolution of parasite virulence.     

Antagonistic coevolution between hosts and sexually transmitted infections

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are predicted to play an important role in the evolution of host mating strategies, and vice versa, yet our understanding of host-STI coevolution is limited. Previous theoretical work has shown mate choice can evolve to prevent runaway STI virulence evolution in chronic, sterilizing infections. Here, I generalize this theory to examine how a broader range of life-history traits influence coevolution; specifically, how host preferences for healthy mates and STI virulence coevolve when infections are acute and can cause mortality or sterility, and hosts do not form long-term sexual partnerships. I show that mate choice reduces both mortality and sterility virulence, with qualitatively different outcomes depending on the mode of virulence, costs associated with mate choice, recovery rates, and host lifespan. For example, fluctuating selection—a key finding in previous work—is most likely when hosts have moderate lifespans, STIs cause sterility and long infections, and costs of mate choice are low. The results reveal new insights into the coevolution of mate choice and STI virulence as different life-history traits vary, providing increased support for parasite-mediated sexual selection as a potential driver of host mate choice, and mate choice as a constraint on the evolution of virulence.