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1.
In an era of global environmental change, understanding how disturbance affects the dynamics of ecological communities is crucial. However, few studies have theoretically explored the potential influence of disturbance including both intensity and frequency on compositional change over time in communities with stage structure. A spatially explicit, individual‐based model was constructed incorporating the various demographic responses to disturbance of plants at two different growth stages: seedlings and adults. In the model, we assumed that individuals within each stage were demographically equivalent (neutral) but differed between stages. We simulated a common phenomenon that seedlings suffered more from disturbance such as grazing and fire than adults. We showed how stage‐structured communities of seedlings and adults responded to disturbance with various levels of disturbance frequency and intensity. In “undisturbed” simulations, the relationship between average species abundance (defined here as the total number of individuals divided by species richness) and community composition turnover (measured by the Bray–Curtis similarity index) was asymptotic. However, in strongly “disturbed” simulations with the between‐disturbance intervals greater than one, this relationship became unimodal. Stage‐dependent response to disturbance underlay the above discrepancy between undisturbed and disturbed communities. 相似文献
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Richard Gomulkiewicz Ruth G. Shaw 《Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences》2013,368(1610)
Laboratory model systems and mathematical models have shed considerable light on the fundamental properties and processes of evolutionary rescue. But it remains to determine the extent to which these model-based findings can help biologists predict when evolution will fail or succeed in rescuing natural populations that are facing novel conditions that threaten their persistence. In this article, we present a prospectus for transferring our basic understanding of evolutionary rescue to wild and other non-laboratory populations. Current experimental and theoretical results emphasize how the interplay between inheritance processes and absolute fitness in changed environments drive population dynamics and determine prospects of extinction. We discuss the challenge of inferring these elements of the evolutionary rescue process in field and natural settings. Addressing this challenge will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of population persistence that combines processes of evolutionary rescue with developmental and ecological mechanisms. 相似文献
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Ivain Martinossi‐Allibert Mirko Đorđević Göran Arnqvist Biljana Stojković David Berger 《Evolution; international journal of organic evolution》2018,72(3):518-530
Whether sexual selection generally promotes or impedes population persistence remains an open question. Intralocus sexual conflict (IaSC) can render sexual selection in males detrimental to the population by increasing the frequency of alleles with positive effects on male reproductive success but negative effects on female fecundity. Recent modeling based on fitness landscape theory, however, indicates that the relative impact of IaSC may be reduced in maladapted populations and that sexual selection therefore might promote adaptation when it is most needed. Here, we test this prediction using bean beetles that had undergone 80 generations of experimental evolution on two alternative host plants. We isolated and assessed the effect of maladaptation on sex‐specific strengths of selection and IaSC by cross‐rearing the two experimental evolution regimes on the alternative hosts and estimating within‐population genetic (co)variance for fitness in males and females. Two key predictions were upheld: males generally experienced stronger selection compared to females and maladaptation increased selection in females. However, maladaptation consistently decreased male‐bias in the strength of selection and IaSC was not reduced in maladapted populations. These findings imply that sexual selection can be disrupted in stressful environmental conditions, thus reducing one of the potential benefits of sexual reproduction in maladapted populations. 相似文献
5.
Tim Connallon Matthew D. Hall 《Evolution; international journal of organic evolution》2016,70(10):2186-2198
Females and males have conflicting evolutionary interests. Selection favors the evolution of different phenotypes within each sex, yet divergence between the sexes is constrained by the shared genetic basis of female and male traits. Current theory predicts that such “sexual antagonism” should be common: manifesting rapidly during the process of adaptation, and slow in its resolution. However, these predictions apply in temporally stable environments. Environmental change has been shown empirically to realign the direction of selection acting on shared traits and thereby alleviate signals of sexually antagonistic selection. Yet there remains no theory for how common sexual antagonism should be in changing environments. Here, we analyze models of sex‐specific evolutionary divergence under directional and cyclic environmental change, and consider the impact of genetic correlations on long‐run patterns of sex‐specific adaptation. We find that environmental change often aligns directional selection between the sexes, even when they have divergent phenotypic optima. Nevertheless, some forms of environmental change generate persistent sexually antagonistic selection that is difficult to resolve. Our results reinforce recent empirical observations that changing environmental conditions alleviate conflict between males and females. They also generate new predictions regarding the scope for sexually antagonistic selection and its resolution in changing environments. 相似文献
6.
Toshinori Okuyama 《Ecology and evolution》2020,10(6):2838-2845
Although intraindividual variability (IIV) in behavior is fundamental to ecological dynamics, the factors that contribute to the expression of IIV are poorly understood. Using an individual‐based model, this study examined the effects of stochasticity on the evolution of IIV represented by the residual variability of behavior. The model describes a population of prey with nonoverlapping generations, in which prey take refuge upon encountering a predator. The strategy of a prey is characterized by the mean and IIV (i.e., standard deviation) of hiding duration. Prey with no IIV will spend the same duration hiding in a refuge at each predator encounter, while prey with IIV will have variable hiding durations among encounters. For the sources of stochasticity, within‐generation stochasticity (represented by random predator encounters) and between‐generation stochasticity (represented by random resource availability) were considered. Analysis of the model indicates that individuals with high levels of IIV are maintained in a population in the presence of between‐generation stochasticity even though the optimal strategy in each generation is a strategy with no IIV, regardless of the presence or absence of within‐generation stochasticity. This contradictory pattern emerges because the mean behavioral trait and IIV do not independently influence fitness (e.g., the sign of the selection gradient with respect to IIV depends on the mean trait). Consequently, even when evolution eventually leads toward a strategy with no IIV (i.e., the optimal strategy), greater IIV may be transiently selected. Between‐generation stochasticity consistently imposes such transient selection and maintain high levels of IIV in a population. 相似文献
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SIMON D. HOYLE DAVID PEEL JENNY R. OVENDEN DAMIEN BRODERICK RIK C. BUCKWORTH 《Molecular ecology resources》2005,5(4):974-976
Genetic mark–recapture requires efficient methods of uniquely identifying individuals. ‘Shadows’ (individuals with the same genotype at the selected loci) become more likely with increasing sample size, and bias harvest rate estimates. Finding loci is costly, but better loci reduce analysis costs and improve power. Optimal microsatellite panels minimize shadows, but panel design is a complex optimization process. locuseater and shadowboxer permit power and cost analysis of this process and automate some aspects, by simulating the entire experiment from panel design to harvest rate estimation. 相似文献
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Brooke A. Williams B. Alexander Simmons Michelle Ward Jutta Beher Angela J. Dean Tida Nou Tania M. Kenyon Madeline Davey Courtney B. Melton Phoebe J. Stewart-Sinclair Niall L. Hammond Emily Massingham Carissa J. Klein 《Conservation Science and Practice》2021,3(11):e540
The role of a conservation scientist has never been more challenging. Amidst the rapid degradation occurring across Earth's natural ecosystems and the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, conservation scientists must learn new and effective ways to build trust and engage with the wider community. Here, we discuss the potential utility of a particular communication technique, Nonviolent Communication (also known as Compassionate Communication or Collaborative Communication), in conservation science. Nonviolent Communication is a structured form of communication, developed in the 1960s by Dr. Marshall Rosenberg, that seeks to foster interpersonal understanding and connection through communication of judgment-free observations, recognition of people's feelings, needs and values, and requests for specific actions to meet those needs. It has delivered positive outcomes in diverse fields such as prisoner reform, health science, and social work, and holds great promise for conservation applications. While there is no single communication strategy that resonates with all people, we argue that Nonviolent Communication could be used by conservation scientists and practitioners when communicating with colleagues, politicians, and the general public about important and sometimes contentious environmental issues. 相似文献
9.
Cody J. Dey Evan Richardson David McGeachy Samuel A. Iverson Hugh G. Gilchrist Christina A. D. Semeniuk 《Global Change Biology》2017,23(5):1821-1831
Climate change can influence interspecific interactions by differentially affecting species‐specific phenology. In seasonal ice environments, there is evidence that polar bear predation of Arctic bird eggs is increasing because of earlier sea ice breakup, which forces polar bears into nearshore terrestrial environments where Arctic birds are nesting. Because polar bears can consume a large number of nests before becoming satiated, and because they can swim between island colonies, they could have dramatic influences on seabird and sea duck reproductive success. However, it is unclear whether nest foraging can provide an energetic benefit to polar bear populations, especially given the capacity of bird populations to redistribute in response to increasing predation pressure. In this study, we develop a spatially explicit agent‐based model of the predator–prey relationship between polar bears and common eiders, a common and culturally important bird species for northern peoples. Our model is composed of two types of agents (polar bear agents and common eider hen agents) whose movements and decision heuristics are based on species‐specific bioenergetic and behavioral ecological principles, and are influenced by historical and extrapolated sea ice conditions. Our model reproduces empirical findings that polar bear predation of bird nests is increasing and predicts an accelerating relationship between advancing ice breakup dates and the number of nests depredated. Despite increases in nest predation, our model predicts that polar bear body condition during the ice‐free period will continue to decline. Finally, our model predicts that common eider nests will become more dispersed and will move closer to the mainland in response to increasing predation, possibly increasing their exposure to land‐based predators and influencing the livelihood of local people that collect eider eggs and down. These results show that predator–prey interactions can have nonlinear responses to changes in climate and provides important predictions of ecological change in Arctic ecosystems. 相似文献
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Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low‐latitude/low‐elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate‐induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient. We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual‐based model. We compare range‐wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs), and for a single climate genotype vs. multiple genotypes locally adapted to temperature. During climate stability, dispersal decreased towards RLs when fitness was uniform, but increased when fitness declined towards RLs, due to highly dispersive genotypes maintaining sink populations at RLs, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low‐quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low‐fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted genotypes benefited from staying close to their climate optima; this selected against dispersal under stable climates but for increased dispersal throughout shifting ranges, compared to cases without local adaptation. Dispersal increased at expanding RLs in most scenarios, but only increased at the range centre and contracting RLs given local adaptation to climate. 相似文献
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To identify areas on the landscape that may contribute to a robust network of conservation areas, we modeled the probabilities of occurrence of several en route migratory shorebirds and wintering waterfowl in the southern Great Plains of North America, including responses to changing climate. We predominantly used data from the eB ird citizen‐science project to model probabilities of occurrence relative to land‐use patterns, spatial distribution of wetlands, and climate. We projected models to potential future climate conditions using five representative general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP 5). We used Random Forests to model probabilities of occurrence and compared the time periods 1981–2010 (hindcast) and 2041–2070 (forecast) in “model space.” Projected changes in shorebird probabilities of occurrence varied with species‐specific general distribution pattern, migration distance, and spatial extent. Species using the western and northern portion of the study area exhibited the greatest likelihoods of decline, whereas species with more easterly occurrences, mostly long‐distance migrants, had the greatest projected increases in probability of occurrence. At an ecoregional extent, differences in probabilities of shorebird occurrence ranged from ?0.015 to 0.045 when averaged across climate models, with the largest increases occurring early in migration. Spatial shifts are predicted for several shorebird species. Probabilities of occurrence of wintering Mallards and Northern Pintail are predicted to increase by 0.046 and 0.061, respectively, with northward shifts projected for both species. When incorporated into partner land management decision tools, results at ecoregional extents can be used to identify wetland complexes with the greatest potential to support birds in the nonbreeding season under a wide range of future climate scenarios. 相似文献
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Linking landscape effects to key evolutionary processes through individual organism movement and natural selection is essential to provide a foundation for evolutionary landscape genetics. Of particular importance is determining how spatially-explicit, individual-based models differ from classic population genetics and evolutionary ecology models based on ideal panmictic populations in an allopatric setting in their predictions of population structure and frequency of fixation of adaptive alleles. We explore initial applications of a spatially-explicit, individual-based evolutionary landscape genetics program that incorporates all factors--mutation, gene flow, genetic drift and selection--that affect the frequency of an allele in a population. We incorporate natural selection by imposing differential survival rates defined by local relative fitness values on a landscape. Selection coefficients thus can vary not only for genotypes, but also in space as functions of local environmental variability. This simulator enables coupling of gene flow (governed by resistance surfaces), with natural selection (governed by selection surfaces). We validate the individual-based simulations under Wright-Fisher assumptions. We show that under isolation-by-distance processes, there are deviations in the rate of change and equilibrium values of allele frequency. The program provides a valuable tool (cdpop v1.0; http://cel.dbs.umt.edu/software/CDPOP/) for the study of evolutionary landscape genetics that allows explicit evaluation of the interactions between gene flow and selection in complex landscapes. 相似文献
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The potential of reef‐building corals to adapt to increasing sea‐surface temperatures is often debated but has rarely been comprehensively modeled on a region‐wide scale. We used individual‐based simulations to model adaptation to warming in a coral metapopulation comprising 680 reefs and representing the whole of the Central Indo‐West Pacific. Encouragingly, some reefs—most notably Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, New Caledonia and the southern half of the Great Barrier Reef—exhibited high capacity for adaptation and, in our model, maintained coral cover even under a rapid “business‐as‐usual” warming scenario throughout the modeled period (200 years). Higher resilience of these reefs was observed under all tested parameter settings except the models prohibiting selection and/or migration during warming. At the same time, the majority of reefs in the region tended to collapse within the first 100 years of warming. The adaptive potential (odds of maintaining high coral cover) of a given reef could be predicted based on two metrics: the reef's present‐day temperature, and the proportion of recruits immigrating from warmer locations. The latter metric explains the most variation in adaptive potential, and significantly correlates with actual coral cover changes observed throughout the region between the 1970s and the early 2000s. These findings will help prioritize coral conservation efforts and plan assisted gene flow interventions to boost the adaptive potential of specific coral populations. 相似文献
14.
The fitness of natural enemies should be altered in response to changes in herbivore quality induced by the impact of increased atmospheric CO2 levels on plants. We studied the effect of different CO2 levels on the aphid predator Episyrphus balteatus DeGeer fed either specialist or generalist aphids reared on either of two host plants under laboratory conditions. In the host plant that contains sinigrin (black mustard), elevated CO2 increased the sinigrin content of both host plant and the specialist aphid, but reduced the already very low levels in the generalist aphid. Predator development time increased with elevated CO2, while fecundity decreased. Consequently, individual fitness decreased slightly with increasing atmospheric CO2. Sinigrin significantly decreased fecundity and increased development time of the predator. As a result, fitness was significantly lower too. The consumption rate was influenced significantly by plant and prey solely and the interactions of host plant × prey type and CO2 level × prey type. Further research on the effects of climate change parameters (e.g. greenhouse gases such as CO2, ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), etc.) separately and jointly under controlled environmental conditions will help to understand the nature and direction of their effects on natural enemies as part of the tritrophic system. 相似文献
15.
Habitat loss is one of the key drivers of the ongoing decline of biodiversity. However, ecologists still argue about how fragmentation of habitat (independent of habitat loss) affects species richness. The recently proposed habitat amount hypothesis posits that species richness only depends on the total amount of habitat in a local landscape. In contrast, empirical studies report contrasting patterns: some find positive and others negative effects of fragmentation per se on species richness. To explain this apparent disparity, we devise a stochastic, spatially explicit model of competitive species communities in heterogeneous habitats. The model shows that habitat loss and fragmentation have complex effects on species diversity in competitive communities. When the total amount of habitat is large, fragmentation per se tends to increase species diversity, but if the total amount of habitat is small, the situation is reversed: fragmentation per se decreases species diversity. 相似文献
16.
Frédéric Bailleul Volker Grimm Clément Chion Mike Hammill 《Ecology and evolution》2013,3(8):2535-2546
The distribution of poikilotherms is determined by the thermal structure of the marine environment that they are exposed to. Recent research has indicated that changes in migration phenology of beluga whales in the Arctic are triggered by changes in the thermal structure of the marine environment in their summering area. If sea temperatures reflect the spatial distribution of food resources, then changes in the thermal regime will affect how homogeneous or clumped food is distributed. We explore, by individual‐based modelling, the hypothesis that changes in migration phenology are not necessarily or exclusively triggered by changes in food abundance, but also by changes in the spatial aggregation of food. We found that the level of food aggregation can significantly affect the relationship between the timing of the start of migration to the winter grounds and the total prey capture of individuals. Our approach strongly indicates that changes in the spatial distribution of food resources should be considered for understanding and quantitatively predicting changes in the phenology of animal migration. 相似文献
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Natural selection drives populations of individuals towards local peaks in a fitness landscape. These peaks are created by the interactions between individual mutations. Fitness landscapes may change as an environment changes. In a previous contribution, we discovered a variant of the Azoarcus group I ribozyme that represents a local peak in the RNA fitness landscape. The genotype at this peak is distinguished from the wild-type by four point mutations. We here report ribozyme fitness data derived from constructing all possible combinations of these point mutations. We find that these mutations interact epistatically. Importantly, we show that these epistatic interactions change qualitatively in the three different environments that we studied. We find examples where the relative fitness of a ribozyme can change from neutral or negative in one environment, to positive in another. We also show that the fitness effect of a specific GC-AU base pair switch is dependent on both the environment and the genetic context. Moreover, the mutations that we study improve activity at the cost of decreased structural stability. Environmental change is ubiquitous in nature. Our results suggest that such change can facilitate adaptive evolution by exposing new peaks of a fitness landscape. They highlight a prominent role for genotype-environment interactions in doing so. 相似文献
19.
《Ecology and evolution》2017,7(9):3143-3148
Egg limitation is known to destabilize host–parasitoid dynamics. This study reexamines the effect of egg limitation in light of the individual variation in parasitization risk among hosts (e.g., some hosts are more likely to be parasitized than others). Previous studies have considered egg limitation (predicted as a destabilizing factor) and individual variation among hosts (predicted as a stabilizing factor) in isolation; however, their interaction is not known. An individual‐based model was used to examine the effects of each factor and their interaction. The model‐based analysis shows a clear interaction between egg limitation and individual variation in risk among hosts. Egg limitation can both stabilize and destabilize host–parasitioid dynamics depending on the presence and absence of the risk variation. The result suggests that the population‐dynamic consequences of egg limitation are more complex than previously thought and emphasizes the importance of the simultaneous consideration of multiple ecological factors (with individual‐level details) to uncover potential interactions among them. 相似文献