What limits fire? An examination of drivers of burnt area in Southern Africa

The factors controlling the extent of fire in Africa south of the equator were investigated using moderate resolution (500 m) satellite-derived burned area maps and spatial data on the environmental factors thought to affect burnt area. A random forest regression tree procedure was used to determine the relative importance of each factor in explaining the burned area fraction and to address hypotheses concerned with human and climatic influences on the drivers of burnt area. The model explained 68% of the variance in burnt area. Tree cover, rainfall in the previous 2 years, and rainfall seasonality were the most important predictors. Human activities – represented by grazing, roads per unit area, population density, and cultivation fraction – were also shown to affect burnt area, but only in parts of the continent with specific climatic conditions, and often in ways counter to the prevailing wisdom that more human activity leads to more fire. The analysis found no indication that ignitions were limiting total burnt area on the continent, and most of the spatial variation was due to variation in fuel load and moisture. Split conditions from the regression tree identified (i) low rainfall regions, where fire is rare; (ii) regions where fire is under human control; and (iii) higher rainfall regions where burnt area is determined by rainfall seasonality. This study provides insights into the physical, climatic, and human drivers of fire and their relative importance across southern Africa, and represents the beginnings of a predictive framework for burnt area.     

Convergence of bark investment according to fire and climate structures ecosystem vulnerability to future change

Fire regimes in savannas and forests are changing over much of the world. Anticipating the impact of these changes requires understanding how plants are adapted to fire. In this study, we test whether fire imposes a broad selective force on a key fire‐tolerance trait, bark thickness, across 572 tree species distributed worldwide. We show that investment in thick bark is a pervasive adaptation in frequently burned areas across savannas and forests in both temperate and tropical regions where surface fires occur. Geographic variability in bark thickness is largely explained by annual burned area and precipitation seasonality. Combining environmental and species distribution data allowed us to assess vulnerability to future climate and fire conditions: tropical rainforests are especially vulnerable, whereas seasonal forests and savannas are more robust. The strong link between fire and bark thickness provides an avenue for assessing the vulnerability of tree communities to fire and demands inclusion in global models.     

Anthropogenic modifications to fire regimes in the wider Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem

Fire is a key driver in savannah systems and widely used as a land management tool. Intensifying human land uses are leading to rapid changes in the fire regimes, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and composition. We undertake a novel analysis describing spatial patterns in the fire regime of the Serengeti‐Mara ecosystem, document multidecadal temporal changes and investigate the factors underlying these patterns. We used MODIS active fire and burned area products from 2001 to 2014 to identify individual fires; summarizing four characteristics for each detected fire: size, ignition date, time since last fire and radiative power. Using satellite imagery, we estimated the rate of change in the density of livestock bomas as a proxy for livestock density. We used these metrics to model drivers of variation in the four fire characteristics, as well as total number of fires and total area burned. Fires in the Serengeti‐Mara show high spatial variability—with number of fires and ignition date mirroring mean annual precipitation. The short‐term effect of rainfall decreases fire size and intensity but cumulative rainfall over several years leads to increased standing grass biomass and fuel loads, and, therefore, in larger and hotter fires. Our study reveals dramatic changes over time, with a reduction in total number of fires and total area burned, to the point where some areas now experience virtually no fire. We suggest that increasing livestock numbers are driving this decline, presumably by inhibiting fire spread. These temporal patterns are part of a global decline in total area burned, especially in savannahs, and we caution that ecosystem functioning may have been compromised. Land managers and policy formulators need to factor in rapid fire regime modifications to achieve management objectives and maintain the ecological function of savannah ecosystems.     

Time‐since‐fire and climate interact to affect the structural recovery of an Australian semi‐arid plant community

How does time‐since‐fire influence the structural recovery of semi‐arid, eucalypt‐dominated Murray‐Mallee shrublands after fire, and is recovery affected by spatial variation in climate? We assessed the structure and dynamics of a hummock grass, Triodia scariosa N.T. Burb, and mallee eucalypts – two key structural components of mallee shrublands – using a >100 year time‐since‐fire chronosequence. The relative influence of climatic variables, both individually and combined with time‐since‐fire, was modelled to account for spatial variation in the recovery of vegetation structural components. Time‐since‐fire was the primary determinant of the structural recovery of T. scariosa and eucalypts. However, climate, notably mean annual rainfall and rainfall variability, also influenced the recovery of the eucalypt overstorey, T. scariosa cover and mean hummock height. We observed that (i) the mean number of live eucalypt stems per individual decreased while mean individual basal area increased, (ii) cover of T. scariosa peaked at ~30 years post‐fire and gradually decreased thereafter, and (iii) the ‘hummock’ form of T. scariosa occurred throughout the chronosequence, whereas the ‘ring’ form tended not to occur until ~30 years post‐fire. Time‐since‐fire was the key determinant of the structural recovery of eucalypt‐dominated mallee shrublands, but there is geographical variation in recovery related to rainfall and its variability. Fire regimes are likely to have different effects across the geographic range of mallee shrublands.     

Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia

Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19000km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.     

Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation

Dynamics of fires in Africa are of critical importance for understanding changes in ecosystem properties and effects on the global carbon cycle. Given increasing fire risk from projected warming on the one hand and a documented human‐driven decline in fires on the other, it is still unknown how the complex interplay between climate and human factors affects recent changes of fires in Africa. Moreover, the impact of recent strong El Niño events on fire dynamics is not yet known. By applying an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to satellite‐derived fire burned area, we investigated the spatio‐temporal evolution of fires in Africa over 2001–2016 and identified the potential dominant drivers. Our results show an overall decline of fire rates, which is continuous over the time period and mainly caused by cropland expansion in northern sub‐Saharan Africa. However, we also find that years of high precipitation have caused an initial increase in fire rates in southern Africa, which reversed to a decline in later years. This decline is caused by a high frequency of dry years leading to very low fuel loads, suggesting that recent drought causes a general reduction of burned areas, in particular in xeric savannas. In some mesic regions (10°–15°S), solar radiation and increased temperature caused increase in fires. These findings show that climate change overrules the impact of human expansion on fire rates at the continental scale in Africa, reducing the fire risk.     

Long‐term variability and rainfall control of savanna fire regimes in equatorial East Africa

Fires burning the vast grasslands and savannas of Africa significantly influence the global carbon cycle. Projecting the impacts of future climate change on fire‐mediated biogeochemical processes in these dry tropical ecosystems requires understanding of how various climate factors influence regional fire regimes. To examine climate–vegetation–fire linkages in dry savanna, we conducted macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analysis on the sediments of the past 25 000 years from Lake Challa, a deep crater lake in equatorial East Africa. The charcoal‐inferred shifts in local and regional fire regimes were compared with previously published reconstructions of temperature, rainfall, seasonal drought severity, and vegetation dynamics to evaluate millennial‐scale drivers of fire occurrence. Our charcoal data indicate that fire in the dry lowland savanna of southeastern Kenya was not fuel‐limited during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Late Glacial, in contrast to many other regions throughout the world. Fire activity remained high at Lake Challa probably because the relatively high mean‐annual temperature (~22 °C) allowed productive C₄ grasses with high water‐use efficiency to dominate the landscape. From the LGM through the middle Holocene, the relative importance of savanna burning in the region varied primarily in response to changes in rainfall and dry‐season length, which were controlled by orbital insolation forcing of tropical monsoon dynamics. The fuel limitation that characterizes the region's fire regime today appears to have begun around 5000–6000 years ago, when warmer interglacial conditions coincided with prolonged seasonal drought. Thus, insolation‐driven variation in the amount and seasonality of rainfall during the past 25 000 years altered the immediate controls on fire occurrence in the grass‐dominated savannas of eastern equatorial Africa. These results show that climatic impacts on dry‐savanna burning are heterogeneous through time, with important implications for efforts to anticipate future shifts in fire‐mediated ecosystem processes.     

Continent‐level drivers of African pyrodiversity

Pyrodiversity, which describes fire variability over space and time, is believed to increase habitat heterogeneity and thereby promote biodiversity. However, to date there is no standardised metric for quantifying pyrodiversity, and so broad geographic patterns and drivers of pyrodiversity remain unexplored. We present the first generalizable method to quantify pyrodiversity, and use it to address the fundamental questions of what drives pyrodiversity, which fire attributes constrain pyrodiversity under different conditions, and whether pyrodiversity is spatial grain‐dependent. We linked the MODIS burned area and active fire products to measure fire size, seasonal timing, return interval, and intensity for 2.2 million individual fires in sub‐Saharan Africa from 2000–2015. We then quantified pyrodiversity as a four‐dimensional hypervolume described by fire attributes within a grid cell, for any spatial grain of analysis. Environmental (rainfall, vegetation, soils, and topography) and human‐associated (cattle biomass, cropland area, and human population density) variables were assessed as potential drivers of pyrodiversity. Rainfall was the main environmental driver of pyrodiversity, with higher pyrodiversity in drier regions (< 650 mm yr^–1). Pyrodiversity was not strongly associated with human‐associated variables across Africa. Rainfall and a human influence index had clear but contrasting effects on the variability of fire size, seasonal timing, return interval, and intensity. Our analyses show that fire size and seasonal timing constrain pyrodiversity in wetter regions, whereas none of the fire attributes pose a strong constraint in drier regions. We found no evidence that pyrodiversity was spatial grain‐dependent when recalculated at 5‐minute grain increments from 15 to 120 minutes. We hypothesise that the strongest positive effect of pyrodiversity on biodiversity in all its forms will occur at intermediate precipitation (650–1300 mm yr^–1), where fire plays an important role in shaping vegetation structure and where pyrodiversity is still quite high.     

Fine‐scale refuges can buffer demographic and genetic processes against short‐term climatic variation and disturbance: a 22‐year case study of an arboreal marsupial

Ecological disturbance and climate are key drivers of temporal dynamics in the demography and genetic diversity of natural populations. Microscale refuges are known to buffer species’ persistence against environmental change, but the effects of such refuges on demographic and genetic patterns in response to short‐term environmental variation are poorly understood. We quantified demographic and genetic responses of mountain brushtail possums (Trichosurus cunninghami) to rainfall variability (1992–2013) and to a major wildfire. We hypothesized that there would be underlying differences in demographic and genetic processes between an unburnt mesic refuge and a topographically exposed zone that was burnt in 2009. Fire caused a 2‐year decrease in survival in the burnt zone, but the population grew after the fire due to immigration, leading to increased expected heterozygosity. We documented a fire‐related behavioural shift, where the rate of movement by individuals in the unburnt refuge to the burnt zone decreased after fire. Irrespective of the fire, there were long‐term differences in demographic and genetic parameters between the mesic/unburnt refuge and the nonmesic/burnt zone. Survival was high and unaffected by rainfall in the refuge, but lower and rainfall‐dependent in the nonmesic zone. Net movement of individuals was directional, from the mesic refuge to the nonmesic zone, suggesting fine‐scale source–sink dynamics. There were higher expected heterozygosity (H_E) and temporal genetic stability in the refuge, but lower H_E and marked temporal genetic structure in the exposed habitat, consistent with reduced generational overlap caused by elevated mortality and immigration. Thus, fine‐scale refuges can mediate the short‐term demographic and genetic effects of climate and ecological disturbance.     

Contrasting demographics of tropical savanna and temperate forest eucalypts provide insight into how savannas and forests function. A case study using Corymbia clarksoniana from north‐eastern Australia

Eucalypts (Eucalyptus spp. and Corymbia spp.) dominate many communities across Australia, including frequently burnt tropical savannas and temperate forests, which receive less frequent but more intense fires. Understanding the demographic characteristics that allow related trees to persist in tropical savannas and temperate forest ecosystems can provide insight into how savannas and forests function, including grass–tree coexistence. This study reviews differences in critical stages in the life cycle of savanna and temperate forest eucalypts, especially in relation to fire. It adds to the limited data on tropical eucalypts, by evaluating the effect of fire regimes on the population biology of Corymbia clarksoniana, a tree that dominates some tropical savannas of north‐eastern Australia. Corymbia clarksoniana displays similar demographic characteristics to other tropical savanna species, except that seedling emergence is enhanced when seed falls onto recently burnt ground during a high rainfall period. In contrast to many temperate forest eucalypts, tropical savanna eucalypts lack canopy‐stored seed banks; time annual seed fall to coincide with the onset of predictable wet season rain; have very rare seedling emergence events, including a lack of mass germination after each fire; possess an abundant sapling bank; and every tropical eucalypt species has the ability to maintain canopy structure by epicormically resprouting after all but the most intense fires. The combination of poor seedling recruitment strategies, coupled with characteristics allowing long‐term persistence of established plants, indicate tropical savanna eucalypts function through the persistence niche rather than the regeneration niche. The high rainfall‐promoted seedling emergence of C. clarksoniana and the reduction of seedling survival and sapling growth by fire, support the predictions that grass–tree coexistence in savannas is governed by rainfall limiting tree seedling recruitment and regular fires limiting the growth of juvenile trees to the canopy.     

Effect of fire regime on plant abundance in a tropical eucalypt savanna of north‐eastern Australia

Abstract Changes in plant abundance within a eucalypt savanna of north‐eastern Australia were studied using a manipulative fire experiment. Three fire regimes were compared between 1997 and 2001: (i) control, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season (July) 1997 only; (ii) early burnt, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season 1997 and early dry season (May) 1999; and (iii) late burnt, savanna burnt in the mid‐dry season 1997 and late dry season (October) 1999. Five annual surveys of permanent plots detected stability in the abundance of most species, irrespective of fire regime. However, a significant increase in the abundance of several subshrubs, ephemeral and twining perennial forbs, and grasses occurred in the first year after fire, particularly after late dry season fires. The abundance of these species declined toward prefire levels in the second year after fire. The dominant grass Heteropogon triticeus significantly declined in abundance with fire intervals of 4 years. The density of trees (>2 m tall) significantly increased in the absence of fire for 4 years, because of the growth of saplings; and the basal area of the dominant tree Corymbia clarksoniana significantly increased over the 5‐year study, irrespective of fire regime. Conservation management of these savannas will need to balance the role of regular fires in maintaining the diversity of herbaceous species with the requirement of fire intervals of at least 4‐years for allowing the growth of saplings >2 m in height. Whereas late dry season fires may cause some tree mortality, the use of occasional late fires may help maintain sustainable populations of many grasses and forbs.     

Not only trees: Grasses determine African tropical biome distributions via water limitation and fire

Aim

Although much tropical ecology generally focuses on trees, grasses are fundamental for characterizing the extensive tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) and, together with the tree functional types, for determining the contrasting functional patterns of TGBs and tropical forests (TFs). To study the factors that determine African biome distribution and the transitions between them, we performed the first continental analysis to include grass and tree functional types.

Location

Sub‐Saharan Africa.

Time period

2000–2010.

Major taxa studied

Savanna and forest trees and C₄ grasses.

Methods

We combined remote‐sensing data with a land cover map, using tree functional types to identify TGBs and TFs. We analysed the relationships of grass and tree cover with fire interval, rainfall annual average and seasonality.

Results

In TGBs experiencing < 630 mm annual rainfall, grass growth was water limited. Grass cover and fire recurrence were strongly and directly related over the entire subcontinent. Some TGBs and TFs with annual rainfall > 1,200 mm had the same rainfall seasonality but displayed strongly different fire regimes.

Main conclusions

Water limitation to grass growth was fundamental in the driest TGBs, acting alongside the well‐known limitation to tree growth. Marked differences in fire regimes across all biomes indicated that fire was especially relevant for maintaining mesic and humid TGBs. At high rainfall, our results support the hypothesis of TGBs and TFs being alternative stable states maintained by a vegetation–fire feedback for similar climatic conditions.     

What predicts the richness of seeder and resprouter species in fire‐prone Cape fynbos: Rainfall reliability or vegetation density?

In ecosystems subject to regular canopy fires, woody species have evolved two general strategies of post‐fire regeneration. Seeder species are killed by fire and populations regenerate solely by post‐fire recruitment from a seed bank. Resprouter species survive fire and regenerate by vegetative regrowth from protected organs. Interestingly, the abundance of these strategies varies along environmental gradients and across regions. Two main hypotheses have been proposed to explain this spatial variation: the gap dependence and the environmental‐variability hypotheses. The gap‐dependence model predicts that seeders are favoured in sparse vegetation (vegetation gaps allowing effective post‐fire recruitment of seedlings), while resprouters are favoured in densely vegetated sites (seedlings being outcompeted by the rapid crown regrowth of resprouters). The environmental‐variability model predicts that seeders would prevail in reliable rainfall areas, whereas resprouters would be favoured in areas under highly variable rainfall that are prone to severe dry events (leading to high post‐fire seedling mortality). We tested these two models using distribution data, captured at the scale of quarter‐degree cells, for seeder and resprouter species of two speciose shrub genera (Aspalathus and Erica) common in fire‐prone fynbos ecosystems of the mediterranean‐climate part of the Cape Floristic Region. Contrary to the predictions of the gap‐dependence model, species number of both resprouters and seeders increased with values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (a widely used surrogate for vegetation density), with a more marked increase for seeders. The predictions of the environmental‐variability hypothesis, by contrast, were not refuted by this study. Seeder and resprouter species of both genera showed highest richness in environments with high rainfall reliability. However, with decreasing reliability, seeder numbers dropped more quickly than those of resprouters. We conclude that the environmental‐variability model is better able to explain the abundance of woody seeder and resprouter species in Southern Hemisphere fire‐prone shrublands (fynbos and kwongan) than the gap‐dependence model.     

Hierarchical processes define spatial pattern of avian assemblages restricted and endemic to the arid Karoo, South Africa

Abstract Aim To identify and quantify biotic and abiotic factors associated with the regional gradients in the distribution and abundance of bird communities restricted and endemic to the Succulent and Nama Karoo biomes of South Africa. Location The arid Nama and Succulent Karoo biomes in South Africa. Methods The quarter degree grid cell (QDGC) was used to extract environmental data, while the bird data previously atlased, was linked to the same geo‐referenced system, using a geographical information system (GIS). Bird species were grouped into different life‐history assemblages. A quantitative, systematic analysis of the different bird communities spanning the Karoo was undertaken to examine contributions of broad‐ and local‐scale physical environmental and biotic factors to regional variations in the species composition, using multivariate statistical and spatial analytical tools. These included two indirect gradient methods; principal components analysis (PCA) and detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), and two direct gradient methods; canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and redundancy analysis (RDA). Results Principal components analysis results showed that the selected environmental variables accounted for about 85% of the variation in the region. The first two principal gradients defined regional temperature seasonality and variability especially in winter and summer. The third principal gradient mainly defined summer rainfall areas in association with the coefficient of variation of rain and regional primary production, while the fourth gradient defined winter rainfall areas, growth days and elements of landscape structure. CCA/RDA analysis produced shortened hierarchically ranked explanatory variables for each bird assemblage. Stepwise gradient analysis results showed summer rain, rainfall concentration, topographic heterogeneity and annual evapotranspiration, as the most important climate variables explaining species occurrence. Landscape, in terms of percentage transformation, morphology, coefficient of variation of primary productivity and distance between suitable habitat patches, were also important, but to a lesser degree. Total variation explained (TVE) by the supplied variables was between 23 and 37% of variation. Less than 20% of TVE was the intrinsic spatial component of environmental influence, indicating that any unmeasured factors were independent of spatial structuring. For all the eight bird assemblages, climate contributed most to TVE (24–57%). Landscape characteristics (human‐induced transformation, vegetation in terms of size if grassy clumps and the average distances between them) contributed theleast to TVE for all the different assemblages (0–6%), especially the granivorous assemblage where it was not significant at all (0%). Seasonal extremes and variability were more important in explaining species gradients than were annual climatic conditions, with the exception of annual potential evapotranspiration. Main conclusions This study was able to synthesize species environment relations at the broad scale and demonstrated the association of arid zone endemic species occurrence with climate extremes and seasonality. Given the predicted climate change scenarios for South Africa, this regional gradient study provides a quantitative ecological basis for finer scale modelling and analysis, developing regional strategies for conserving biodiversity as well as predicting and planning for the effects of global climate change. However, most importantly, it clearly showed that bird species restricted and endemic to the arid Karoo biome may be more sensitive to climate rather than vegetation structure as previously thought.     

Characteristics of dry forest in West Africa and the influence of fire

Abstract. The climate, soil, structure and floristics of dry forests in West Africa are summarised. Data from Ghana show that these forests have two-peak annual rainfall between 850 and 1350 mm, with 6–10 dry months (< 100 mm rain) each year; by relatively nutrient-rich soils developed over a variety of rock types; by short stature (tallest trees 10-40 m) relatively high deciduousness in the upper canopy and evergreenness in the understorey; and by a distinctive flora which changes gradually towards areas of higher rainfall but abruptly at the forest-savanna boundary. Dry forests near the forest-savanna boundary form a distinctive sub-type as a result of occasional encroachment by litter fires which have become more common in the 1980's. Evidence is presented to suggest that many parts of the forest zone in West Africa may have been subject to fires most often in the dry forest types. Past fires are likely to have had a profound influence on the composition of the present forest canopy. Fire mortality is greatest in small trees, whilst drought (without fire) kills more large trees. This thinning process allows rapid recolonisation especially by Marantaceous and Zingiberaceous forbs and by pioneer trees. Seedlings of canopy trees grow beneath these colonising plants. Recurrent fires seriously impede the recovery of burnt forest and are a principal concern for the rehabilitation of dry forests.     

Rainfall,geology and landscape position generate large‐scale spatiotemporal fire pattern heterogeneity in an African savanna

Fire is considered a critical management tool in fire prone landscapes. Often studies and policies relating to fire focus on why and how the fire regime should be managed, often neglecting to subsequently evaluate management's ability to achieve these objectives over long temporal and large spatial scales. This study explores to what extent the long‐term spatio‐temporal fire patterns recorded in the Kruger National Park, South Africa has been influenced by management policies and to what extent it was dictated by underlying variability in the abiotic template. This was done using a spatially explicit fire‐scar database from 1941 to 2006 across the 2 million ha Park. Fire extent (ha burnt per annum) 1) is correlated with rainfall cycles 2) exhibits no long‐term trend and 3) is largely non‐responsive to prevailing fire management policies. Rainfall, geology and distance from the closest perennial river and the interactions between these variables influence large‐scale fire pattern heterogeneity: areas with higher rainfall, on basaltic substrates and far from rivers are more fire prone and have less heterogeneous fire regimes than areas with lower rainfall, on granitic substrates and closer to rivers. This study is the first to illustrate that under a range of rainfall and geological conditions, perennial rivers influence long‐term, landscape‐scale fire patterns well beyond the riparian zone (typically up to 15 km from the river). It was concluded that despite fire management policies which historically aimed for largely homogeneous fire return regimes, spatially and temporally heterogeneous patterns have emerged. This is primarily because of differences in rainfall, geology and distance from perennial rivers. We postulate that large‐scale spatio‐temporal fire pattern heterogeneity is implicit to heterogeneous savannas, even under largely homogenizing fire policies. Management should be informed by these patterns, embracing the natural heterogeneity‐producing template. We therefore suggest that management actions will be better directed when operating at appropriate scales, nested within the broader implicit landscape patterns, and when focusing on fire regime parameters over which they have more influence (e.g. fire season).     

Tracking the effect of climate change on ecosystem functioning using protected areas: Africa as a case study

Protected areas represent important core ‘units’ for in situ conservation. However, the current static system is at risk from the effects of global environmental change. This is especially true in Africa, a biodiversity-rich continent expected to be hit hard by climate change. Focusing on African protected areas that experience limited human impact (International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) categories I and II), we tested three hypotheses regarding the impact of climate change on the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP). We expected a lower annual NPP and higher seasonality in NPP in Eastern and Southern Africa; changes in NPP dynamics to coincide with changes in precipitation; no correlation between changes in NPP dynamics and human development. To test these expectations, we used the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an index of NPP. Results show that, between 1982 and 2008, an increased vegetation greenness was observed in 27% of the protected areas monitored (mostly in Western Africa), and an increased seasonality in 9% of them (mostly in Eastern and Southern Africa). Our results lend support to current expectations regarding the impacts of climate change, and demonstrate how protected areas of IUCN categories I and II could be used to track the effect of climate change on ecosystem functioning in Africa, and possibly elsewhere. The study highlights the need for a dynamic approach to conservation, where the relevance and efficiency of management actions need to be regularly evaluated. It also demonstrates that satellite-based approaches offer a cheap, verifiable way to quickly identify protected areas of concern at a global scale, supporting managers in their effort to design and apply adaptive management strategies.     

Immediate and short‐term responses of bird and mammal assemblages to a subalpine wildfire in the Snowy Mountains,Australia

Abstract Over 35 days in January–February 2003, wildfires burnt across much of the subalpine/alpine landscape of south‐eastern Australia, including about 70% of the land above 1500 m in the Snowy Mountains. At the time of the fire, studies of two subalpine faunal assemblages were being undertaken. The opportunity to resurvey the assemblages was taken in order to examine the immediate impact of fire in an environment where it is uncommon but predicted to occur increasingly with global warming. A study area in the Whites River Valley, where the number of bird species was counted monthly from 1996 to 2003, and weekly in late winter–spring from 2000 to 2003, was burnt in one fire. As well as the expected decrease in the number of individual birds, the fire resulted in an immediate decrease in the number of bird species, unlike in previously studied montane forest, with only the regularly wintering species plus the olive whistler and the ground‐feeding flame robin remaining. During the post‐winter avian immigration, few regular spring migrants appeared on burnt sites despite their nearby presence on the unburnt side of the valley. Five of six small mammal trapping grids were burnt. As with fires at lower altitudes, there was an immediate reduction in mammal numbers on burnt grids following the fire, but in addition, one species, Mastacomys fuscus, declined further in the ensuing 2 months both on burnt and unburnt sites. Numbers of Antechinus swainsonii and Rattus fuscipes stabilized until autumn/winter when there was a further decline due to the unavailability of subnivean space to allow winter foraging, allied with a concentration of fox predation on areas still carrying populations of small mammals.     

Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15‐year record from Kibale National Park,Uganda

Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data.     

Water,land, fire,and forest: Multi‐scale determinants of rainforests in the Australian monsoon tropics

The small rainforest fragments found in savanna landscapes are powerful, yet often overlooked, model systems to understand the controls of these contrasting ecosystems. We analyzed the relative effect of climatic variables on rainforest density at a subcontinental level, and employed high‐resolution, regional‐level analyses to assess the importance of landscape settings and fire activity in determining rainforest density in a frequently burnt Australian savanna landscape. Estimates of rainforest density (ha/km²) across the Northern Territory and Western Australia, derived from preexisting maps, were used to calculate the correlations between rainforest density and climatic variables. A detailed map of the northern Kimberley (Western Australia) rainforests was generated and analyzed to determine the importance of geology and topography in controlling rainforests, and to contrast rainforest density on frequently burnt mainland and nearby islands. In the northwestern Australian, tropics rainforest density was positively correlated with rainfall and moisture index, and negatively correlated with potential evapotranspiration. At a regional scale, rainforests showed preference for complex topographic positions and more fertile geology. Compared with mainland areas, islands had significantly lower fire activity, with no differences between terrain types. They also displayed substantially higher rainforest density, even on level terrain where geomorphological processes do not concentrate nutrients or water. Our multi‐scale approach corroborates previous studies that suggest moist climate, infrequent fires, and geology are important stabilizing factors that allow rainforest fragments to persist in savanna landscapes. These factors need to be incorporated in models to predict the future extent of savannas and rainforests under climate change.