Disequilibrial island turnover dynamics: a 17‐year record of Bahamian ants

Aim To document long‐term rates of immigration, extinction and turnover in insular ant faunas and evaluate the relative impacts of recent hurricane activity and climate change. Location Small islands in the Exuma Cays, Andros and Abaco archipelagos of the Bahamas. Methods I surveyed the ant faunas of > 140 small islands in three archipelagos of the Bahamas over several multi‐year periods, spanning up to 17 years, by recording species attracted to baits. Immigrations, extinctions and species turnover were documented, as were the relative abundances of species. Four major hurricanes affected the study archipelagos in the second decade of this study. Results Rates of ant turnover were generally low among archipelagos and time periods. Immigrations outnumbered extinctions in the first decade of this study, although this pattern was reversed in the second decade. General physical characteristics of the islands were not significant predictors of the occurrence of extinctions. The relative abundance (based on proportion of baits occupied) of persistent populations of the two most common species both declined in the second decade, indicating, along with higher extinction rates, a generalized decline in these insular ant faunas. Main conclusions The available evidence suggests that hurricanes were not directly responsible for the observed declines in the ant faunas. Regional changes in insular ant species richness, however, are correlated with generalized North Atlantic hurricane activity over the last half century. Indirect effects of hurricanes on the vegetation of these islands, such as increased herbivory and possible decreased nutrient availability, along with a long‐term (quarter century) increase in temperature and decline in rainfall, are possible contributing factors to the changing ant turnover dynamics.     

Plant species persistence and turnover on small Bahamian islands

I conducted surveys of the plant species occupying 136 small islands in the Exuma Cays and 58 small islands near Andros, Bahamas. Most species occurred on relatively few islands, and most islands contained relatively few species. Identities of the most common species differed between the two archipelagos. Comparisons with earlier surveys revealed species extinctions and immigrations. Turnover was relatively low on both a per island and a per species basis on both archipelagos, although significant spatial variation in turnover rates between archipelagos was found. Most islands experienced no turnover; islands on which turnover did occur were larger and had higher species richness. Likewise, most species did not turnover, although much variation existed in turnover rates among those that did. Experimental introductions of two species to very small islands naturally devoid of vegetation revealed that these islands could support plant life. One species survived on eight of ten islands for >9 years, including the effects of a moderate (class 2) hurricane. This hurricane caused substantial damage and loss of plant biomass, but resulted in no species extinctions on 30 small islands. Data for the small islands in this region, now spanning almost a decade, reveal that most populations are persistent over periods of years to decades, rarely going extinct or immigrating. Even moderate hurricanes seem to have little impact on species compositions.     

Non‐random patterns of invasion and extinction reduce phylogenetic diversity in island bird assemblages

Anthropogenically driven changes in bird communities on oceanic islands exemplify the biotic upheaval experienced by island floras and faunas. While the influence of invasions and extinctions on species richness and beta‐diversity of island bird assemblages has been explored, little is known about the impact of these invasions and extinctions on phylogenetic diversity. Here we quantify phylogenetic diversity of island bird assemblages resulting from extinctions alone, invasions alone, and the combination of extinctions and invasions in the historic time period (1500 CE to the current), and compare it to the expected phylogenetic diversity that would result if these processes involved randomly selected island bird species. We assessed phylogenetic diversity and structure at the scale of the island (n = 152), the archipelago containing the islands (n = 22), and the four oceans containing the archipelagos using three measures. We found that extinction, invasion, and the combination of invasion and extinction generally resulted in lower phylogenetic diversity than expected, regardless of the spatial scale examined. We conclude that extinction and invasion of birds on islands are non‐random with respect to phylogeny and that these processes generally leave bird assemblages with lower phylogenetic diversity than we would expect under random invasion or extinction.     

Extinction‐driven changes in frugivore communities on oceanic islands

Global change and human expansion have resulted in many species extinctions worldwide, but the geographic variation and determinants of extinction risk in particular guilds still remain little explored. Here, we quantified insular extinctions of frugivorous vertebrates (including birds, mammals and reptiles) across 74 tropical and subtropical oceanic islands within 20 archipelagos worldwide and investigated extinction in relation to island characteristics (island area, isolation, elevation and climate) and species’ functional traits (body mass, diet and ability to fly). Out of the 74 islands, 33 islands (45%) have records of frugivore extinctions, with one third (mean: 34%, range: 2–100%) of the pre‐extinction frugivore community being lost. Geographic areas with more than 50% loss of pre‐extinction species richness include islands in the Pacific (within Hawaii, Cook Islands and Tonga Islands) and the Indian Ocean (Mascarenes, Seychelles). The proportion of species richness lost from original pre‐extinction communities is highest on small and isolated islands, increases with island elevation, but is unrelated to temperature or precipitation. Large and flightless species had higher extinction probability than small or volant species. Across islands with extinction events, a pronounced downsizing of the frugivore community is observed, with a strong extinction‐driven reduction of mean body mass (mean: 37%, range: –18–100%) and maximum body mass (mean: 51%, range: 0–100%). The results document a substantial trophic downgrading of frugivore communities on oceanic islands worldwide, with a non‐random pattern in relation to geography, island characteristics and species’ functional traits. This implies severe consequences for ecosystem processes that depend on mutualistic plant–animal interactions, including ecosystem dynamics that result from the dispersal of large‐seeded plants by large‐bodied frugivores. We suggest that targeted conservation and rewilding efforts on islands are needed to halt the defaunation of large and non‐volant seed dispersers and to restore frugivore communities and key ecological interactions.     

Patterns and processes in insular floras affected by hurricanes

Aim To investigate species compositions, rates of species turnover, species–area and species–distance relationships and patterns of nestedness in the floras of small Bahamian islands, by comparing two groups of islands that had been differentially affected by two hurricanes. Location Small islands occurring on either side of Great Exuma near Georgetown, Bahamas. Methods We surveyed the plant species of 44 small islands over a 5‐year period from 1998 to 2002. Hurricanes Lili and Michelle occurred in 1996 and 2001, respectively; both storms affected small islands on the more exposed south‐west side of Great Exuma to a greater degree than small islands on the more protected north‐east side. A set of 27 islands was surveyed in 1998 and 2002 to evaluate species turnover. Stepwise multiple linear regression analyses and an information‐theoretic approach (the Akaike information criterion) were used to elucidate the importance of area and distance as predictors of plant species number. We compared a piecewise linear regression model with a simple linear regression of species number against area to determine whether a small island effect existed. Nestedness patterns were evaluated by Wilcoxon two‐sample tests to analyse occurrence sequences. Results Species turnover was low in an absolute sense (overall = 0.74% year^?1), yet was over three times higher than that documented in a nearby archipelago in the absence of hurricanes. Both vegetated area and distance were important predictor variables for exposed islands but not for protected islands. Some support was found for a small island effect for the exposed islands based on a piecewise linear regression model. Both island groups revealed significant nestedness at the level of the assemblage (both P < 0.001). On exposed islands, 65–79% (depending upon the method of calculation) of all species were significantly nested, but only 47% of all species were significantly nested on protected islands. Main conclusions Overall, these insular floras seem highly resistant to hurricane‐force disturbances. Species turnover was low (< 1% year^?1) in an absolute sense, particularly in comparison with rates for other taxa. Higher degrees of nestedness and significant species–area and species–distance relationships for exposed islands indicated stronger patterns of community assembly. It is likely that disturbance is a major structuring force for the exposed islands, although the type of disturbances that mediate these patterns may not be primarily hurricane‐force storms.     

Nestedness in insular floras: spatiotemporal variation and underlying mechanisms

Aims Nestedness is a characteristic of insular metacommunity structure. Relatively few studies, however, have attempted to evaluate temporal changes in nestedness, or elucidate the mechanisms underlying nestedness. I evaluated both spatial and temporal patterns of nestedness in the insular floras of four archipelagoes of small islands in the Bahamas and the potential underlying environmental gradients.Methods The NODF (a nestedness metric based on overlap and decreasing fill) and the matrix temperature measure, T, were used to quantify nestedness in insular floras on small islands near Abaco, Andros, Great Exuma and the Exuma Cays, Bahamas. Two different null models were employed for each nestedness measure. Six environmental variables were evaluated in relation to nestedness by ordering islands according to gradients and recalculating NODF scores.Important findings All archipelagoes were significantly nested. Nestedness among sites contributed more to overall nestedness than did nestedness among species. NODF scores varied among archipelagoes, but were surprisingly constant over time. Ordering islands by vegetated area yielded the highest nestedness scores for three archipelagoes; ordering islands by protection from exposure yielded the highest nestedness score for one archipelago. Nestedness scores varied little over time even though species compositions changed, indicating that extinctions occurred in a deterministic manner. The relative importance of area suggests extinction is an important mechanism in producing nestedness. Attempting to determine the relative importance of immigrations or extinctions requires some assumptions, however, and both processes are likely cumulative in most cases.     

Why do some small islands lack vegetation? Evidence from long‐term introduction experiments

Classic island biogeography theory predicts that very small islands, near the extreme lower end of the species–area relationship, should support very few species. At times no species may be present, however, due to randomness in the immigration–extinction dynamics. Alternatively, a lack of vegetation on very small islands may indicate that such islands do not contain the appropriate habitat for the establishment or long‐term survival of plants, or that disturbances are too frequent or intense. These potential mechanisms were evaluated in the central Exumas, Bahamas, where surveys of 117 small islands revealed that over a third of the islands supported no terrestrial plant life. Area and exposure were significant predictors of whether a small island was vegetated or not in multiple logistic regressions. No islands naturally devoid of vegetation were colonized over a 17‐yr period, and only two naturally vegetated islands lost all vegetation. Experimental introductions of two species –Sesuvium portulacastrum and Borrichia arborescens– revealed that a number of islands naturally lacking vegetation were able to sustain introduced populations over the long term (up to 15 yr). Drought and hurricanes appeared to have reduced the establishment success and possibly long‐term survival of the introductions, although some populations survived four major hurricanes. Turnover rates of both introduced species were often an order of magnitude higher on the experimental introduction islands than on other islands in the archipelago. It appears many of the islands in this system that naturally lack vegetation may be physically capable of supporting terrestrial plant life, yet have no plants primarily due to barriers to colonization.     

Conservation of oceanic island floras: Present and future global challenges

Current threats to the planet's biodiversity are unprecedented, and they particularly imperil insular floras. In this investigation, we use the threat factors identified by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment as the main drivers of biodiversity loss on islands to define and rank 13 current, continuing threats to the plant diversity of nine focal archipelagos where volcanic origin (or in the Seychelles a prolonged isolation after a continental origin) has produced a high degree of endemicity and fragility in the face of habitat alteration. We also conduct a global endangerment assessment based on the numbers of insular endemic plants in the endangered (EN) and critically endangered (CR) IUCN categories for 53 island groups with an estimated 9951 endemic plant species, providing a representative sample of the world's insular systems and their floristic richness. Our analyses indicate that isolation does not significantly influence endangerment, but plant endemics from very small islands are more often critically endangered. We estimate that between 3500 and 6800 of the estimated 70,000 insular endemic plant species worldwide might be highly threatened (CR+EN) and between ca. 2000 and 2800 of them in critical danger of extinction (CR). Based on these analyses, and on a worldwide literature review of the biological threat factors considered, we identify challenging questions for conservation research, asking (i) what are the most urgent priorities for the conservation of insular species and floras, and (ii) with the knowledge and assets available, how can we improve the impact of conservation science and practice on the preservation of island biodiversity? Our analysis indicates that the synergistic action of many threat factors can induce major ecological disturbances, leading to multiple extinctions. We review weaknesses and strengths in conservation research and management in the nine focal archipelagos, and highlight the urgent need for conservation scientists to share knowledge and expertise, identify and discuss common challenges, and formulate multi-disciplinary conservation objectives for insular plant endemics worldwide. To our knowledge, this is the most up-to-date and comprehensive survey yet to review the threat factors to native plants on oceanic islands and define priority research questions.     

ORIGIN AND DIVERSIFICATION OF THE CALIFORNIA FLORA: RE‐EXAMINING CLASSIC HYPOTHESES WITH MOLECULAR PHYLOGENIES

The California Floristic Province exhibits one of the richest floras on the planet, with more than 5500 native plant species, approximately 40% of which are endemic. Despite its impressive diversity and the attention it has garnered from ecologists and evolutionary biologists, historical causes of species richness and endemism in California remain poorly understood. Using a phylogenetic analysis of 16 angiosperm clades, each containing California natives in addition to species found only outside California, we show that CA's current biodiversity primarily results from low extinction rates, as opposed to elevated speciation or immigration rates. Speciation rates in California were lowest among Arcto‐Tertiary lineages (i.e., those colonizing California from the north, during the Tertiary), but extinction rates were universally low across California native plants of all historical, geographic origins. In contrast to long‐accepted ideas, we find that California diversification rates were generally unaffected by the onset of the Mediterranean climate. However, the Mediterranean climate coincided with immigration of many desert species, validating one previous hypothesis regarding origins of CA's plant diversity. This study implicates topographic complexity and climatic buffering as key, long‐standing features of CA's landscape favoring plant species persistence and diversification, and highlights California as an important refuge under changing climates.     

Plant diversity in Oceanic archipelagos: realistic patterns emulated by an agent‐based computer simulation

Although islands as natural laboratories have held the attention of scientists for centuries, they continue to offer new study questions, especially in the context of the current biodiversity crisis. To date, habitat diversity on islands and spatial configuration of archipelagos have received less attention than classical island area and isolation. Moreover, in the field where experiments are impossible, correlative methods have dominated, despite the call for more mechanistic approaches. We developed an agent‐based computer simulation to study the effect of habitat diversity and archipelago configuration on plant species richness and composition in five archipelagos worldwide (Hawaii, Galapagos, Canary Islands, Cape Verde and Azores) and compared simulated diversity patterns to the empirical data. Habitat diversity proved to be an important factor to achieve realistic simulation results in all five archipelagos, whereas spatial structure of archipelagos was important in more elongated archipelagos. In most cases, simulation results correlate stronger with spermatophyte than with pteridophyte data, which we suggest can be attributed to the different dispersal and evolution rates of the two species groups. Correlation strength between simulated and observed diversity also varied among archipelagos, suggesting that geological and biogeographic histories of archipelagos have affected the species richness and composition on the islands. Our study demonstrates that a relatively simple computer simulation involving just a few essential processes can largely emulate patterns of archipelagic species richness and composition and serve as a powerful additional method to complement empirical approaches.     

Landscape structure and land use history influence changes in island plant composition after 100 years

Aim We investigated how current and historical land use and landscape structure affect species richness and the processes of extinction, immigration and species turnover. Location The northern part of the Stockholm archipelago, Baltic Sea, Sweden. We resurveyed 27 islands ranging from 0.3 to 33 ha in area. Methods We compared current plant survey data, cadastral maps and aerial photographs with records obtained from a survey in 1908, using databases and a digital elevation model to examine changes in plant community dynamics in space and time. We examined the effects of local and landscape structure and land use changes on plant species dynamics by using stepwise regression in relation to eight local and three landscape variables. The eight local variables were area, relative age, shape, soil heterogeneity, bedrock ratio, number of houses, forest cover change, and grazing 100 years ago. The three landscape variables were distance to mainland, distance to closest island with a farm 100 years ago, and structural connectivity. Hanski’s connectivity measure was modified to incorporate both connectivity and fragmentation. Results The investigated islands have undergone drastic changes, with increasing forest cover, habitation, and abandonment of grassland management. Although the total species richness increased by 31% and mean island area by 23%, we found no significant increase in species richness per unit area. Local variables explain past species richness (100 years ago), whereas both local and landscape variables explain current species richness, extinctions, immigrations and species turnover. Grazing that occurred 100 years ago still influences species richness, even though grazing management was abandoned several decades ago. The evidence clearly shows an increase in nitrophilous plant species, particularly among immigrant species. Main conclusions This study highlights the importance of including land use history when interpreting current patterns of species richness. Furthermore, local environment and landscape patterns affect important ecological processes such as immigration, extinction and species turnover, and hence should be included when assessing the impact of habitat fragmentation and land use change. We suggest that our modified structural connectivity measure can be applied to other types of landscapes to investigate the effects of fragmentation and habitat loss.     

Fish species richness in spring‐fed ponds: effects of habitat size versus isolation in temporally variable environments

1. Species richness in a habitat patch is determined by immigration (regional) and extinction (local) processes, and understanding their relative importance is crucial for conservation of biodiversity. In this study, we applied the Island Biogeography concept to spring ponds connected to a river in southwestern Japan to examine how immigration and extinction processes interact to determine fish species richness in temporally variable environments. 2. Fish censuses were conducted 15 times in 13 study ponds at 1–4 month intervals from August 1998 through October 2000. Effects of habitat size (pond area), isolation (distance from the river) and temporal environmental variability (water level fluctuation) on (i) species richness, (ii) immigration and extinction rates and (iii) population size and persistence of each fish species were assessed. 3. The results revealed predominant effects of distance on species richness, immigration/extinction rates and population size and persistence. Species richness decreased with increasing distance but was not related to either pond area or water level fluctuation. A negative effect of distance on immigration rate was detected, while neither pond area nor water level fluctuation had significant effects on extinction rate. Further, population size and persistence of four species increased with decreasing distance, suggesting that, in ponds close to the river, immigrants from the river reduce the probability of extinction (i.e. provide a rescue effect), contributing to the maintenance of high species richness. 4. Overall results emphasise the importance of immigration processes, rather than extinction, in shaping patterns of species richness in our system. The predominant importance of immigration was probably because of (i) high temporal variability that negates habitat‐size effects and (ii) continuous immigration that easily compensates for local extinctions. Our results suggest that consideration of regional factors (e.g. connectivity, locations of source populations and barriers to colonisation) is crucial for conservation and restoration of local habitats.     

Turnover of passerine birds on islands in the Aegean Sea (Greece)

Aim We wish to determine the effect of migratory status on turnover rates in island birds. Because turnover is influenced by factors other than migratory status, we also considered the influence of body size and physical characteristics of the islands inhabited on the probabilities of extinction and immigration. Location The Mediterranean islands of Delos, Astypalea, Paros, Naxos and Lesvos in the Aegean Sea, Greece. Methods The passerine birds of these islands were surveyed between 1954 and 1961 by G.E. Watson, and were resurveyed between 1988 and 1992. The effects of migratory status and body size on the probabilities of extinction and immigration were examined by G‐tests of linear trend in proportion, and analysis of variance, respectively. A combined analysis of migratory status, body size and physical characteristics of the islands was carried out using logistic regressions of the probabilities of extinction and immigration on these factors. Results Species number on each island changed little between surveys, with no island's species number changing by more than one species. Twelve population extinctions and 11 immigrations were recorded. The smallest island, Delos (6 km²), had the highest annualized relative turnover rate (1.08), while the four larger islands (96–1614 km²) had lower and mutually similar rates (0.21–0.27). Populations on higher elevation islands were less likely to go extinct. There is no evidence for an effect of body size on the probabilities of extinction or immigration. Migratory status affected extinction and immigration probabilities differently: migratory species were more likely to immigrate, but less likely to go extinct. Main conclusions The position of the Aegean islands along a major north–south flyway may account for the observed effects of migratory status. The annual passage of large numbers of migrants may, via the rescue effect, decrease the chances of extinction, while at the same time increasing the chances of colonization of unoccupied islands. The likelihood of both extinction and immigration involves a complex interaction between life‐history traits and island characteristics. The effects of migratory status will depend not only on consideration of vagility, vulnerability and stochasticity identified by previous authors, but also upon the location of the islands in relationship to migratory pathways.     

Plant extinction dynamics in an insular metacommunity

Changes in the composition of local communities through time (i.e. species turnover) is a common phenomenon in insular biology. However, the mechanisms promoting variation in species turnover, both among islands and among species, are poorly understood. In an effort to better understand the causes of variation in species turnover, we evaluated the colonization and extinction dynamics of plant populations on 18 small islands off the west coast of Canada. In 1997, we quantified total population sizes of 10 woody angiosperm species. A decade later, we resampled islands to test whether: 1) species turnover occurred, 2) colonization events were offset by extinction events, 2) variation in extinction rates among islands was associated with population sizes, average plant heights, island area, island isolation or each island's exposure to ocean-born disturbances, and 3) variation in extinction rates among species was associated with plant life history traits. Results showed that extinction events outnumbered colonization events, suggesting that the metacommunity is in 'disequilibrium'. Variation in extinction rates among islands was unrelated to island area and isolation. However, extinction rates increased with exposure to ocean-born disturbances and decreased with both initial population sizes and average plant heights. Species with thicker, tougher leaves (i.e. high leaf mass per area) were less prone to extinction than species with thinner, more papery leaves. Overall results indicate that species turnover is common and that it is generated primarily by extinction. Variation in extinction rates appears to result from an interaction between among-island effects (exposure, population size and plant stature) and among-species effects (leaf toughness), suggesting that ocean-born disturbances play a key role in determining metacommunity structure.     

Microbial colonization dynamics in temporary aquatic systems

Most studies of community development in insular systems have investigated the colonization dynamics of only a portion of the biotic community using islands that have the benefit of prior biotic modification. Two experiments assessed the predictive ability of equilibrium island theory with regard to the development of the protistan community in temporary aquatic islands (100-1 plastic swimming pools) void of any prior biotic modification. The first experiment ran for 170 d (March–September 1985) and manipulated the access of islands to animals that represent potentially important dispersal pathways for microbes. A second experiment (May–June 1986) investigated in greater detail the early stages of species accrual in the absence of dispersal pathways other than via the atmosphere. Polyurethane foam substrates were used as sampling devices to increase the accuracy and replicability of sampling and provide habitat for colonists. Sampling was determined to be asymptotic. Species accrual was asymptotic in both experiments, although it initially lagged behind that predicted by theory. Autotrophs approached equilibrium faster than heterotrophs, but at a lower species richness. The predicted number of autotroph species at equilibrium was lower in islands that were excluded from contact with birds compared to less exclosed islands. The colonization dynamics of the entire community was not significantly different among islands having different degrees of exclosure. In both experiments, rates of species immigration were nonmonotonic with respect to time and species richness. This relationship appeared to reflect the importance of species interactions during the initial accrual phase before equilibrium. Rates of extinction were positively correlated with both these parameters, although they tended to decrease with time during the equilibrium period in less exclosed islands. Turnover at equilibrium was significant and resulted in directional changes in species composition over time. Assortative processes appeared to be important since later colonists exhibited greater persistence. Colonizing species generally fall into three autecological categories: 1) those that were ubiquitous and had temporally predictable patterns of immigration (successional species); 2) those possessing temporally predictable distributions but not spatially ubiquitous distributions (dispersal limited species); 3) those that showed little temporal or spatial predictability in immigration (transient or allochthonous species). Individual islands exhibited various degrees of fluctuation in species number during the predicted equilibrium which were poorly correlated with exogenous environmental variables and physicochemical habitat parameters. The presence of predacious mosquito larvae(Culex spp.) invariably resulted in a sharp decreases in microbial species richness, while documented contact with rodents was followed by an increase in species number in an island so contaminated. Several aspects of microbial colonization of temporary waters that contradict equilibrium predictions appear to be strongly influenced by microbe-microbe as well as macrobe-microbe interactions.     

Nested communities,invasive species and Holocene extinctions: evaluating the power of a potential conservation tool

General ecological methods and models that require a minimum amount of information yet are still able to inform conservation planning are particularly valuable. Nested subset analysis has been advocated as such a tool for the prediction of extinction-prone species and populations. However, such advocacy has not been without skepticism and debate, and in the majority of published examples assessing extinction vulnerability, actual extinctions are based on assumptions rather than direct evidence. Here, we empirically test the power of nested subset analysis to predict extinction-prone species, using documented Holocene insular mammal extinctions on three island archipelagos off the west coast of North America. We go on to test whether the introduction of invasive mammals promotes nestedness on islands via extinction. While all three archipelagos were significantly nested before and after the extinction events, nested subset analysis largely failed to predict extinction patterns. We also failed to detect any correlations between the degree of nestedness at the genus-level with area, isolation, or species richness and extinction risk. Biogeography tools, such as nested subset analysis, must be critically evaluated before they are prescribed widely for conservation planning. For these island archipelagos, it appears detailed natural history and taxa-specific ecology may prove critical in predicting patterns of extinction risk.     

Equilibrium and non‐equilibrium dynamics simultaneously operate in the Galápagos islands

Island biotas emerge from the interplay between colonisation, speciation and extinction and are often the scene of spectacular adaptive radiations. A common assumption is that insular diversity is at a dynamic equilibrium, but for remote islands, such as Hawaii or Galápagos, this idea remains untested. Here, we reconstruct the temporal accumulation of terrestrial bird species of the Galápagos using a novel phylogenetic method that estimates rates of biota assembly for an entire community. We show that species richness on the archipelago is in an ascending phase and does not tend towards equilibrium. The majority of the avifauna diversifies at a slow rate, without detectable ecological limits. However, Darwin's finches form an exception: they rapidly reach a carrying capacity and subsequently follow a coalescent‐like diversification process. Together, these results suggest that avian diversity of remote islands is rising, and challenge the mutual exclusivity of the non‐equilibrium and equilibrium ecological paradigms.     

Latitudinal and altitudinal patterns of plant community diversity on mountain summits across the tropical Andes

The high tropical Andes host one of the richest alpine floras of the world, with exceptionally high levels of endemism and turnover rates. Yet, little is known about the patterns and processes that structure altitudinal and latitudinal variation in plant community diversity. Herein we present the first continental‐scale comparative study of plant community diversity on summits of the tropical Andes. Data were obtained from 792 permanent vegetation plots (1 m²) within 50 summits, distributed along a 4200 km transect; summit elevations ranged between 3220 and 5498 m a.s.l. We analyzed the plant community data to assess: 1) differences in species abundance patterns in summits across the region, 2) the role of geographic distance in explaining floristic similarity and 3) the importance of altitudinal and latitudinal environmental gradients in explaining plant community composition and richness. On the basis of species abundance patterns, our summit communities were separated into two major groups: Puna and Páramo. Floristic similarity declined with increasing geographic distance between study‐sites, the correlation being stronger in the more insular Páramo than in the Puna (corresponding to higher species turnover rates within the Páramo). Ordination analysis (CCA) showed that precipitation, maximum temperature and rock cover were the strongest predictors of community similarity across all summits. Generalized linear model (GLM) quasi‐Poisson regression indicated that across all summits species richness increased with maximum air temperature and above‐ground necromass and decreased on summits where scree was the dominant substrate. Our results point to different environmental variables as key factors for explaining vertical and latitudinal species turnover and species richness patterns on high Andean summits, offering a powerful tool to detect contrasting latitudinal and altitudinal effects of climate change across the tropical Andes.     

Strong indication of an extinction‐based saturation of the flora on the Pacific Robinson Crusoe Islands

Oceanic islands are vulnerable ecosystems and their flora has been under pressure since the arrival of the first humans. Human activities and both deliberately and inadvertently introduced biota have had and continue to have a severe impact on island endemic plants. The number of alien plants has increased nearly linearly on many islands, perhaps resulting in extinction‐based saturation of island floras. Here, we provide evidence for such a scenario in Alejandro Selkirk, Robinson Crusoe Islands (Archipelago Juan Fernández, Chile). We compared species richness and species composition of historical vegetation samples from 1917 with recent ones from 2011. Changes in species’ relative occurrence frequency were related to their taxonomic affiliation, dispersal mode, distribution status, and humidity and temperature preferences. While total species richness of vascular plants remained relatively similar, species composition changed significantly. Plants endemic to the Robinson Crusoe Islands declined, exotic species increased substantially within the period of ca. 100 years. Further, the relative occurrence frequency of plants with preferences for very warm and humid climate decreased, while the opposite was found for plants preferring drier and colder environments. Potential drivers responsible for this dramatic shift in the vegetation within only one century might have been the large goat population affecting especially small populations of endemic plants and climatic changes. Taking into account a substantial extinction debt, we expect further shifts in the vegetation of this small oceanic island toward alien plants. This would have significant negative consequences on global biodiversity, considering that island floras contribute substantially to global plant species richness due to their high proportion of endemics.     

Lost and found: Short-term dynamics of the flora on 100 small islands in the White Sea

The aim was to uncover factors that influence short-term (decade) flora dynamics and species richness of northern marine islets characterized by poor flora and weak anthropogenic pressure. The study used presence–absence data of vascular plant species on 100 small uprising islets of the Kandalaksha Gulf of White Sea (Northern Karelia, Russia). We investigated the influence of islands' attributes on species richness and rates of flora dynamics. Two island types were analyzed separately: younger, stone-like and older, islet-like (which generally are larger and have higher diversity of habitats). Sampled islands were studied via classical biogeographical per island approach and metapopulation per species approach. Stone-like islands had noticeably poorer flora with higher rates of immigration and extinction when compared to those of islet-like islands. The species number for islet-like islands correlated positively with number of habitats, abundance of different habitat types and island area. Species richness of stone-like islands correlated positively only with number of habitat types. Plant species associated with birds, crowberry thickets and coastal rocks were the most stable, and the species of disturbed habitats were significantly less stable. Floristic changes that have occurred have been caused by the massive establishment of new species rather than the extinction of pre-existing taxa. Thus, most of these islands are still in the colonization (assortative) stage. While we found no relationship between island area and species number for stone-like islands, this relationship was seen on islet-like islands.