The effect of urbanisation on avian morphology and latitudinal gradients in body size

Urban areas occupy a large and growing proportion of the earth. Such sites exhibit distinctive characteristics relative to adjacent rural habitats, and many species have colonised and now successfully exploit urban habitats. The change in selection pressures as a result of urbanisation has led to trait divergence in some urban populations relative to their rural counterparts, but studies have generally been local in scale and the generality of differentiation thus remains unknown. The European blackbird Turdus merula is one of the commonest urban bird species in the Western Palearctic, but populations vary substantially in the length of time they have been urbanised. Here we investigate patterns of morphological variation in European blackbirds occupying 11 paired urban and rural habitats across much of the urbanised range of this species and spanning 25° of latitude. First, we assessed the extent to which urban and rural blackbirds are differentiated morphologically and the consistency of any differentiation across the range. Paired urban and rural Blackbird populations frequently exhibited significant morphological differences, but the magnitude and direction of differentiation was site dependent. We then investigated whether the nature of latitudinal gradients in body‐size differed between urban and rural populations, as predicted by differences in the climatic regimes of urban and rural areas. Blackbird body‐size exhibited strong latitudinal gradients, but their form did not differ significantly between urban and rural habitats. The latitudinal gradient in body size may be a consequence of Seebohm's rule, that more migratory populations occurring at high latitudes have longer wings. We conclude that while there can be substantial morphological variation between adjacent urban and rural bird populations, such differentiation may not apply across a species’ range. Locality specific differentiation of urban and rural blackbirds may arise if the selection pressures acting on blackbird morphology vary in an inconsistent manner between urban and rural habitats. Alternatively, phenotypic divergence could arise in a stochastic manner depending on the morphological traits of colonists, through founder effects.     

Illuminating geographical patterns in species' range shifts

Species' range shifts in response to ongoing climate change have been widely documented, but although complex spatial patterns in species' responses are expected to be common, comprehensive comparisons of species' ranges over time have undergone little investigation. Here, we outline a modeling framework based on historical and current species distribution records for disentangling different drivers (i.e. climatic vs. nonclimatic) and assessing distinct facets (i.e. colonization, extirpation, persistence, and lags) of species' range shifts. We used extensive monitoring data for stream fish assemblages throughout France to assess range shifts for 32 fish species between an initial period (1980–1992) and a contemporary one (2003–2009). Our results provide strong evidence that the responses of individual species varied considerably and exhibited complex mosaics of spatial rearrangements. By dissociating range shifts in climatically suitable and unsuitable habitats, we demonstrated that patterns in climate‐driven colonization and extirpation were less marked than those attributed to nonclimatic drivers, although this situation could rapidly shift in the near future. We also found evidence that range shifts could be related to some species' traits and that the traits involved varied depending on the facet of range shift considered. The persistence of populations in climatically unsuitable areas was greater for short‐lived species, whereas the extent of the lag behind climate change was greater for long‐lived, restricted‐range, and low‐elevation species. We further demonstrated that nonclimatic extirpations were primarily related to the size of the species' range, whereas climate‐driven extirpations were better explained by thermal tolerance. Thus, the proposed framework demonstrated its potential for markedly improving our understanding of the key processes involved in range shifting and also offers a template for informing management decisions. Conservation strategies would greatly benefit from identifying both the geographical patterns and the species' traits associated with complex modifications of species' distributions in response to global changes.     

Predicting the sensitivity of butterfly phenology to temperature over the past century

Studies to date have documented substantial variation among species in the degree to which phenology responds to temperature and shifts over time, but we have a limited understanding of the causes of such variation. Here, we use a spatially and temporally extensive data set (ca. 48 000 observations from across Canada) to evaluate the utility of museum collection records in detecting broad‐scale phenology‐temperature relationships and to test for systematic differences in the sensitivity of phenology to temperature (days °C^?1) of Canadian butterfly species according to relevant ecological traits. We showed that the timing of flight season predictably responded to temperature both across space (variation in average temperature from site to site in Canada) and across time (variation from year to year within each individual site). This reveals that collection records, a vastly underexploited resource, can be applied to the quantification of broad‐scale relationships between species' phenology and temperature. The timing of the flight season of earlier fliers and less mobile species was more sensitive to temperature than later fliers and more mobile species, demonstrating that ecological traits can account for some of the interspecific variation in species' phenological sensitivity to temperature. Finally, we found that phenological sensitivity to temperature differed across time and space implying that both dimensions of temperature will be needed to translate species' phenological sensitivity to temperature into accurate predictions of species' future phenological shifts. Given the widespread temperature sensitivity of flight season timing, we can expect long‐term temporal shifts with increased warming [ca. 2.4 days °C^?1 (0.18 SE)] for many if not most butterfly species.     

What makes an urban bird?

Urban development is increasing across the globe. This poses a major threat to biodiversity, which is often relatively poor in towns and cities. Despite much interest in identifying species' traits that can predict their responses to environmental degradation this approach has seldom been used to assess which species are particularly vulnerable to urban development. Here we explore this issue, exploiting one of the best available datasets on species' responses to towns and cities in a highly urbanized region, comprising avian densities across approximately 3000 British urban and rural 1 km × 1 km grid cells. We find that the manner in which species' responses to urbanization is measured has a marked influence on the nature of associations between these responses and species' ecological and life history traits. We advocate that future studies should use continuous indices of responses that take relative urban and rural densities into account, rather than using urban densities in isolation, or a binary response recording the presence/absence of a species in towns and cities. Contrary to previous studies we find that urban development does not select against avian long‐distance migrants and insectivores, or species with limited annual fecundity and dispersal capacity. There was no evidence that behavioural flexibility, as measured by relative brain size, influenced species' responses to urban environments. In Britain, generalist species, as measured by niche position rather than breadth, are favoured by urban development as are, albeit to a lesser extent, those that feed on plant material and nest above the ground. Our results suggest that avian biodiversity in towns and cities in urbanizing regions will be promoted by providing additional resources that are currently scarce in urban areas, and developing suitable environments for ground‐nesting species.     

Spatial variation in the magnitude and functional form of density‐dependent processes on the large skipper butterfly Ochlodes sylvanus

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Ecological and evolutionary drivers of range size in Coenagrion damselflies

Geographic range size is a key ecological and evolutionary characteristic of a species, yet the causal basis of variation in range size among species remains largely unresolved. One major reason for this is that several ecological and evolutionary traits may jointly shape species' differences in range size. We here present an integrated study of the contribution of ecological (dispersal capacity, body size and latitudinal position) and macroevolutionary (species' age) traits in shaping variation in species' range size in Coenagrion damselflies. We reconstructed the phylogenetic tree of this genus to account for evolutionary history when assessing the contribution of the ecological traits and to evaluate the role of the macroevolutionary trait (species' age). The genus invaded the Nearctic twice independently from the Palearctic, yet this was not associated with the evolution of larger range sizes or dispersal capacity. Body size and species' age did not explain variation in range size. There is higher flight ability (as measured by wing aspect ratio) at higher latitudes. Species with a larger wing aspect ratio had a larger range size, also after correcting for phylogeny, suggesting a role for dispersal capacity in shaping the species' ranges. More northern species had a larger species' range, consistent with Rapoport's rule, possibly related to niche width. Our results underscore the importance of integrating macroecology and macroevolution when explaining range size variation among species.     

High genetic diversity declines towards the geographic range periphery of Adonis vernalis,a Eurasian dry grassland plant

Genetic diversity is important for species' fitness and evolutionary processes but our knowledge on how it varies across a species' distribution range is limited. The abundant centre hypothesis (ACH) predicts that populations become smaller and more isolated towards the geographic range periphery – a pattern that in turn should be associated with decreasing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation. We tested this hypothesis in Adonis vernalis, a dry grassland plant with an extensive Eurasian distribution. Its life‐history traits and distribution characteristics suggest a low genetic diversity that decreases and a high genetic differentiation that increases towards the range edge. We analysed AFLP fingerprints in 28 populations along a 4698‐km transect from the geographic range core in Russia to the western range periphery in Central and Western Europe. Contrary to our expectation, our analysis revealed high genetic diversity (range of proportion of polymorphic bands = 56–81%, He = 0.168–0.238) and low genetic differentiation across populations (Φ_ST = 0.18). However, in congruence with the genetic predictions of the ACH, genetic diversity decreased and genetic differentiation increased towards the range periphery. Spanish populations were genetically distinct, suggesting a divergent post‐glacial history in this region. The high genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation in the remaining A. vernalis populations is surprising given the species' life‐history traits and points to the possibility that the species has been widely distributed in the studied region or that it has migrated from a diverse source in an East–West direction, in the past.     

Independent colonization of multiple urban centres by a formerly forest specialist bird species

Urban areas are expanding rapidly, but a few native species have successfully colonized them. The processes underlying such colonization events are poorly understood. Using the blackbird Turdus merula, a former forest specialist that is now one of the most common urban birds in its range, we provide the first assessment of two contrasting urban colonization models. First, that urbanization occurred independently. Second, that following initial urbanization, urban-adapted individuals colonized other urban areas in a leapfrog manner. Previous analyses of spatial patterns in the timing of blackbird urbanization, and experimental introductions of urban and rural blackbirds to uncolonized cities, suggest that the leapfrog model is likely to apply. We found that, across the western Palaearctic, urban blackbird populations contain less genetic diversity than rural ones, urban populations are more strongly differentiated from each other than from rural populations and assignment tests support a rural source population for most urban individuals. In combination, these results provide much stronger support for the independent urbanization model than the leapfrog one. If the former model predominates, colonization of multiple urban centres will be particularly difficult when urbanization requires genetic adaptations, having implications for urban species diversity.     

Fecundity selection does not vary along a large geographical cline of trait means in a passerine bird

Local environmental and ecological conditions are commonly expected to result in local adaptation, although there are few examples of variation in phenotypic selection across continent‐wide spatial scales. We collected standardized data on selection with respect to the highly variable plumage coloration of pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca Pall.) males from 17 populations across the species' breeding range. The observed selection on multiple male coloration traits via the annual number of fledged young was generally relatively weak. The main aim of the present study, however, was to examine whether the current directional selection estimates are associated with distance to the sympatric area with the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis Temminck), a sister species with which the pied flycatcher is showing character displacement. This pattern was expected because plumage traits in male pied flycatchers are changing with the distance to these areas of sympatry. However, we did not find such a pattern in current selection on coloration. There were no associations between current directional selection on ornamentation and latitude or longitude either. Interestingly, current selection on coloration traits was not associated with the observed mean plumage traits of the populations. Thus, there do not appear to be geographical gradients in current directional fecundity selection on male plumage ornamentation. The results of the present study do not support the idea that constant patterns in directional fecundity selection would play a major role in the maintenance of coloration among populations in this species. By contrast, the tendency for relatively weak mosaic‐like variation in selection among populations could reflect just a snapshot of temporally variable, potentially environment‐dependent, selection, as suggested by other studies in this system. Such fine‐grained variable selection coupled with gene flow could maintain extensive phenotypic variation across populations. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114 , 808–827.     

Demographic consequences of climate change and land cover help explain a history of extirpations and range contraction in a declining snake species

Developing conservation strategies for threatened species increasingly requires understanding vulnerabilities to climate change, in terms of both demographic sensitivities to climatic and other environmental factors, and exposure to variability in those factors over time and space. We conducted a range‐wide, spatially explicit climate change vulnerability assessment for Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus), a declining endemic species in a region showing strong environmental change. Using active season and winter adult survival estimates derived from 17 data sets throughout the species' range, we identified demographic sensitivities to winter drought, maximum precipitation during the summer, and the proportion of the surrounding landscape dominated by agricultural and urban land cover. Each of these factors was negatively associated with active season adult survival rates in binomial generalized linear models. We then used these relationships to back‐cast adult survival with dynamic climate variables from 1950 to 2008 using spatially explicit demographic models. Demographic models for 189 population locations predicted known extant and extirpated populations well (AUC = 0.75), and models based on climate and land cover variables were superior to models incorporating either of those effects independently. These results suggest that increasing frequencies and severities of extreme events, including drought and flooding, have been important drivers of the long‐term spatiotemporal variation in a demographic rate. We provide evidence that this variation reflects nonadaptive sensitivity to climatic stressors, which are contributing to long‐term demographic decline and range contraction for a species of high‐conservation concern. Range‐wide demographic modeling facilitated an understanding of spatial shifts in climatic suitability and exposure, allowing the identification of important climate refugia for a dispersal‐limited species. Climate change vulnerability assessment provides a framework for linking demographic and distributional dynamics to environmental change, and can thereby provide unique information for conservation planning and management.     

Urbanisation and earthquake disturbance influence microbial nutrient limitation in streams

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Miami heat: Urban heat islands influence the thermal suitability of habitats for ectotherms

The urban heat island effect, where urban areas exhibit higher temperatures than less‐developed suburban and natural habitats, occurs in cities across the globe and is well understood from a physical perspective and at broad spatial scales. However, very little is known about how thermal variation caused by urbanization influences the ability of organisms to live in cities. Ectotherms are sensitive to environmental changes that affect thermal conditions, and therefore, increased urban temperatures may pose significant challenges to thermoregulation and alter temperature‐dependent activity. To evaluate whether these changes to the thermal environment affect the persistence and dispersal of ectothermic species in urban areas, we studied two species of Anolis lizards (Anolis cristatellus and Anolis sagrei) introduced to Miami‐Dade County, FL, USA, where they occur in both urban and natural habitats. We calculated canopy openness and measured operative temperature (T_e), which estimates the distribution of body temperatures in a non‐thermoregulating population, in four urban and four natural sites. We also captured lizards throughout the day and recorded their internal body temperature (T_b). We found that urban areas had more open canopies and higher T_e compared to natural habitats. Laboratory trials showed that A. cristatellus preferred lower temperatures than A. sagrei. Urban sites currently occupied by each species appear to lower thermoregulatory costs for both species, but only A. sagreihad field T_b that were more often within their preferred temperature range in urban habitats compared to natural areas. Furthermore, based on available T_e within each species' preferred temperature range, urban sites with only A. sagrei appear less suitable for A. cristatellus, whereas natural sites with only A. cristatellus are less suitable for A. sagrei. These results highlight how the thermal properties of urban areas contribute to patterns of persistence and dispersal, particularly relevant for studying species invasions worldwide.     

Interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation on birds across different climate zones: A mechanistic perspective

Climate change and urbanisation are among the most pervasive and rapidly growing threats to biodiversity worldwide. However, their impacts are usually considered in isolation, and interactions are rarely examined. Predicting species' responses to the combined effects of climate change and urbanisation, therefore, represents a pressing challenge in global change biology. Birds are important model taxa for exploring the impacts of both climate change and urbanisation, and their behaviour and physiology have been well studied in urban and non-urban systems. This understanding should allow interactive effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation to be inferred, yet considerations of these interactions are almost entirely lacking from empirical research. Here, we synthesise our current understanding of the potential mechanisms that could affect how species respond to the combined effects of rising temperatures and urbanisation, with a focus on avian taxa. We discuss potential interactive effects to motivate future in-depth research on this critically important, yet overlooked, aspect of global change biology. Increased temperatures are a pronounced consequence of both urbanisation (through the urban heat island effect) and climate change. The biological impact of this warming in urban and non-urban systems will likely differ in magnitude and direction when interacting with other factors that typically vary between these habitats, such as resource availability (e.g. water, food and microsites) and pollution levels. Furthermore, the nature of such interactions may differ for cities situated in different climate types, for example, tropical, arid, temperate, continental and polar. Within this article, we highlight the potential for interactive effects of climate and urban drivers on the mechanistic responses of birds, identify knowledge gaps and propose promising future research avenues. A deeper understanding of the behavioural and physiological mechanisms mediating species' responses to urbanisation and rising temperatures will provide novel insights into ecology and evolution under global change and may help better predict future population responses.     

Variegated desert vegetation: Covariation of edaphic and fire variables provides a framework for understanding mulga‐spinifex coexistence

Abstract Mulga (Acacia aneura Mimosaceae) and spinifex (Triodia spp. Poaceae) habitats together characterize a large part of arid central Australia. Often very abrupt boundaries form between these two habitats, giving rise to a mosaic pattern of contrasting shrub‐grass alterations across the landscape. Reasons for such patterning remain poorly understood though current niche‐based views relate species' distributions to spatial resource gradients or to fire effects. Field survey work was conducted on central Australian mountain ranges to further quantify floristic, regeneration traits, and structural patterning across mulga‐spinifex transitions and to test resource‐ and disturbance‐models that explain these patterns. Compositional analysis demonstrated variability in transition type – in certain cases boundaries denoted true floristic discontinuity and in others, somewhat more of a structural shift. Moreover, it was shown that minimal between‐habitat floristic overlap coincided with the occurrence of distinct edaphic changes, while greater compositional commonality occurred when soil gradients were more diffuse. This indicated that floristic patterning cannot be ascribed to any one single process. In the case of strong soil gradients, between‐habitat segregation most likely resulted from resource‐based niche differentiation; for weaker gradients, fire‐frequency assumed greatest importance. Disturbance theory most readily accounted for the distribution of woody species' post‐fire regeneration traits across habitat boundaries. The results also suggested that biotic factors –viz competition, facilitation and animal‐mediated dispersal – may be of additional consequence for mulga‐spinifex coexistence. Overall, the study served to emphasize the importance of multi‐factor explanation for within‐ and between‐habitat patterning in these mosaics. It also highlighted the need for experimentation to facilitate distinction between cause and correlation.     

Experimental studies of adaptation in Clarkia xantiana. I. Sources of trait variation across a subspecies border

Abstract Both genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity might be expected to affect the location of geographic range limits. Co‐gradient variation (CoGV), plasticity that is congruent with genetic differentiation, may enhance performance at range margins, whereas its opposite, counter‐gradient variation (CnGV) may hinder performance. Here we report findings of reciprocal transplant experiments intended to tease apart the roles of differentiation and plasticity in producing phenotypic variation across a geographic border between two plant subspecies. Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana and C. xantiana ssp. parviflora are California‐endemic annuals that replace each other along a west‐east gradient of declining precipitation. We analyzed variation in floral traits, phenological traits, and vegetative morphological and developmental traits by sowing seeds of 18 populations (six of ssp. xantiana and 12 of ssp. parviflora) at three sites (one in each subspecies' exclusive range and one in the subspecies' contact zone), in two growing seasons (an exceptionally wet El Niño winter and a much drier La Niña winter). Significant genetic differences between subspecies appeared in 11 of 12 traits, and differences were of the same sign as in nature. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that selection is responsible for subspecies differences. Geographic variation within subspecies over part of the spatial gradient mirrored between‐subspecies differences present at a larger scale. All traits showed significant plasticity in response to spatial and temporal environmental variation. Plasticity patterns ranged from spatial and temporal CoGV (e.g., in node of first flower), to spatial CnGV (e.g., in flowering time), to patterns that were neither CoGV nor CnGV (the majority of traits). Instances of CoGV may reflect adaptive plasticity and may serve to increase performance under year‐to‐year environmental variation and at sites near the subspecies border. However, the presence of spatial CnGV in some critical traits suggests that subspecies ranges may also be constrained by patterns of plasticity.     

Urbanisation lowers great tit Parus major breeding success at multiple spatial scales

While numerous studies have reported negative effects of urbanisation on birds, few have examined the role of urban scale in influencing breeding success. Furthermore, many studies have relied on qualitative rather than quantitative assessments of urbanisation. This study sought to address these issues by testing the effects of urbanisation, measured at two spatial scales, on the breeding success of great tits Parus major. A nested study design, incorporating over 400 nestboxes, was used in study sites across northern Belgium with a priori quantified degrees of urbanisation at both local and regional scales. All measured breeding parameters were found to vary at one or both spatial scales of urbanisation; in more urbanised areas great tits displayed advanced laying dates but lower breeding success compared to rural areas, with smaller clutch sizes, lower nestling masses and fewer fledglings per egg. Importantly, urbanisation effects were not limited to big cities as birds breeding in gardens or parks in small towns also had comparatively low success. We found that both regional‐ and local‐scale urbanisation had consistent significant effects on laying date, clutch size and nestling mass, while the number of fledglings per egg was negatively influenced by local‐scale urbanisation only. Results of this study therefore highlight the importance of utilising multiple spatial scales in analysing urbanisation effects, as well as the potential negative impact of local urbanisation on breeding success. This calls for further investigation into mechanisms driving urbanisation effects and how these may vary at different scales.     

Cranial shape varies along an elevation gradient in Gambel's white‐footed mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus gambelii) in the Grinnell Resurvey Yosemite transect

Environmental variation over a species's range creates differing pressures to which organisms must adjust in order to survive. Taxa can respond to these pressures at population and individual levels, leading to localized phenotypic differentiation. Assessing the spatial distribution of phenotypic variation can illuminate how dramatically varying environmental factors shape phenotypes and may forecast a taxon's ability to adapt should conditions change. We characterized morphological variation along a transect sampled in the Grinnell Resurvey project to determine whether Gambel's white‐footed mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus gambelii), a generalist taxon inhabiting the full elevational range of habitats in Yosemite National Park and surrounding areas, has responded morphologically to variation in its environment. We quantified variation in modern P. m. gambelii cranial shape using 2D generalized Procrustes analysis and Euclidean distance matrix‐based geometric morphometrics. We performed multivariate regression of shape coordinates on elevation to test for environmental influences on shape within the principal geographic dimension of change along the transect. We observe a statistically significant correlation with shape on elevation for occlusal and lateral views of the cranium, explaining a small percentage of the overall variation in shape. Modern P. m. gambelii crania show a pattern of flexion in which the angle of the cranial base decreases at higher elevations. Results of EDMA parallel these findings, but highlight additional areas of the cranium that vary with elevation. Collectively, the patterns of variation detected suggest a biological response to the environment that warrants further study. This work lays the foundation for comparison with morphological data from historical specimens, which can address evolutionary scenarios generated from our findings, and for investigation of other taxa included in the resurvey project. J. Morphol. 271:897–909, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Adcyap1 polymorphism covaries with breeding latitude in a Nearctic migratory songbird,the Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla)

Understanding the genetic background of complex behavioral traits, showing multigenic control and extensive environmental effects, is a challenging task. Among such traits, migration is known to show a large additive genetic component. Yet, the identification of specific genes or gene regions explaining phenotypic variance in migratory behavior has received less attention. Migration ultimately depends on seasonal cycles, and polymorphism at phenological candidate genes may underlie variation in timing of migration or other aspects of migratory behavior. In this study of a Nearctic–Neotropical migratory songbird, the Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), we investigated the association between polymorphism at two phenological candidate genes, Clock and Adcyap1, and two aspects of the migratory phenotype, timing of spring migration through a stopover site and inferred latitude of the breeding destination. The breeding destination of migrating individuals was identified using feather deuterium ratio (δ²H), which reliably reflects breeding latitude throughout the species' western breeding range. Ninety‐eight percent of the individuals were homozygous at Clock, and the rare heterozygotes did not deviate from homozygous migration phenology. Adcyap1 was highly polymorphic, and allele size was not significantly associated with migration date. However, Adcyap1 allele size significantly positively predicted the inferred breeding latitude of males but not of females. Moreover, we found a strong positive association between inferred breeding latitude and Adcyap1 allele size in long‐distance migrating birds from the northern sector of the breeding range (western Canada), while this was not the case in short‐distance migrating birds from the southern sector of the breeding range (coastal California). Our findings support previous evidence for a role of Adcyap1 in shaping the avian migratory phenotype, while highlighting that patterns of phenological candidate gene–phenotype associations may be complex, significantly varying between geographically distinct populations and even between the sexes.     

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean‐warming hotspot

Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean‐warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small‐ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.     

Ecological correlates of the distribution limits of two poeciliid species along a salinity gradient

Identifying the environmental factors responsible for the formation of a species' distribution limit is challenging because organisms interact in complex ways with their environments. However, the use of statistical niche models in combination with the analysis of phenotypic variation along environmental gradients can help to reduce such complexity and identify a subset of candidate factors. In the present study, we used such approaches to describe and identify factors responsible for the parapatric distribution of two closely‐related livebearer fish species along a salinity gradient in the lowlands of Trinidad, West Indies. The downstream distribution limits of Poecilia reticulata were strongly correlated with the brackish–freshwater interface. We did not observe significant phenotypic variation in life‐history traits for this species when comparing marginal with more central populations, suggesting that abrupt changes in conditions at the brackish–freshwater interface limit its distribution. By contrast, Poecilia picta was present across a wide range of salinities, although it gradually disappeared from upstream freshwater localities. In addition, P. picta populations exhibited an increase in offspring size in localities where they coexist with P. reticulata, suggesting a role for interspecific competition. The parapatric distribution of these two species, suggests that P. reticulata distributions are limited by an abiotic factor (salinity), whereas P. picta is limited by a biotic factor (interspecific competition). Similar parapatric patterns have been previously described in other systems, suggesting they might be a common pattern in nature. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London