Influence of weather and phenotypic characteristics on pregnancy rates of female roe deer in central Italy

In many ungulates, female fecundity is influenced by weather, population density and body condition. Based on a six-year survey of the reproductive tracts of adult female roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) harvested in the province of Pisa (Tuscany, central Italy), we evaluated the influence of weather, population density and individual characteristics on pregnancy rates. Eighty-five percent of females were pregnant, with a median litter size of two (range one—three). We found that pregnancy rate was positively correlated with summer rainfall and body mass of females, whereas early-winter conditions, spring rainfall, the age of females and density-dependent factors did not appear to influence pregnancy rate. These results reflect the particular seasonal variation in the abundance and quality of resources in Mediterranean habitats and show that heavier females (high-quality mothers) are more productive than lighter females.     

Range-body mass interactions of a northern ungulate – a test of hypothesis

Summer diet, summer temperature, length of the growth season and animal density appeared to best explain annual and regional differences in calf and yearling body mass in moose from southeastern Norway. In general animals inhabiting steep, alpine landscapes had less body mass than animals using flat, low-altitude habitats. Autumn body mass of calves and yearlings decreased with increasing snow depth during the preceding winter and spring. However, calf body mass was more influenced by the summer range and less by the winter range than was body mass of yearlings. There was no indication that the effect of snow depth on autumn body mass was greater in moose living on poor than on good summer ranges. Body mass decreased with increasing competition for summer forage, while the winter range mainly had an density-independent effect. Habitat quality, expressed as regression lines between calf and yearling body mass and animal density (hunting yield), differed between regions. On ranges of medium and high altitude where birch (Betula spp.) rowan (Sorbus aucuparia) and bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus) dominated moose summer diet, body mass decreased at a rapid rate with increasing animal density. Body mass decreased at a slower rate at low-altitude ranges and at high-altitude ranges where willow (Salix spp.) and forbs dominated the diet. Body mass of lactating cows decreased with increasing animal density, but animal density did not affect body mass of non-lactating cows. There was no indication that the decrease in autumn body mass with increasing moose density over the last 25 years has caused a decrease in animal condition (ability to survive the winter). The results are discussed in relation to the effect of summer and winter range on population regulation in moose. It is concluded that a density-dependent effect is apparent on the summer range even at low and intermediate population densities. On the winter range, on the other hand, density-dependence is likely to occur only at high levels of population density. Received: 4 February 1997 / Accepted: 1 February 1999     

Population dynamics and regulation in the coypu Myocastor coypus in central Italy

A capture-recapture design was applied between January 1989 and June 1991 in a 37 5 ha area located in the central valley of the Tiber River (Latium), aimed at estimating the demographic parameters of a coypu population in the Mediterranean climate and at preliminarily investigating the factors that regulate its numbers in this region The population fluctuated between 27 and 137 individuals and followed a seasonal pattern It decreased after the winter and increased between summer and winter Density remained almost stable during a particularly mild winter Survival rates remained relatively high over the entire study period, reproductive activity and additions to the population from in situ reproduction, however, showed minimum peaks following colder winters Evidence of immigration was detected during periods of increasing density Key factor and preliminary density dependence analyses showed that pregnancy failure and newborn losses are cumulatively the most important factor contributing to varation in total mortality, and are positively related to coypu numbers in previous periods The failure to realize maximum potential fecundity is inversely related to previous coypu abundance We show that post-recruitment losses play only a minor role in determining population decline     

Condition of mule deer during winter: stress and spatial overlap with North American elk

We assessed body condition, diet quality (indexed by fecal nitrogen), and stress levels (using fecal glucocorticoid metabolites) in mule deer Odocoileus hemionus in southeastern Idaho, USA, during a mild (2007) and a harsh winter (2008) to evaluate spatial overlap and potential competition with North American elk Cervus elaphus. We used data from GPS telemetry to construct spatially explicit maps of local population density of elk for January–April. Loss of body condition over winter in yearling and adult female mule deer was not related to elk density but to winter severity. Fecal nitrogen increased as winter progressed in both winters, was significantly lower during 2008 than in 2007, but was not related to local population density of elk. In the mild winter of 2007, a significant positive relationship existed between local population density of elk and fecal glucocorticoid metabolite levels of mule deer, indicating increased physiological stress among mule deer wintering in close proximity to elk. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolite levels in deer were lower in 2008 than in 2007 and exhibited no significant relationship with elk density. Declining fecal glucocorticoid levels through winter may be typical of northern cervids. No difference existed in levels of fecal glucocorticoids between sexes of deer. A reduction in elk populations may not improve diet quality, physiological stress levels, or body condition of mule deer on winter range, especially during severe winters. Consequently, management and conservation of winter habitat are more likely to benefit mule deer than would altering density of elk.     

Density-dependent size regulation and negative growth in the sea urchin Diadema antillarum Philippi

Summary This study documents size- and density-dependent growth (positive and negative), in the sea urchin Diadema antillarum. In the summer of 1983, an inverse relationship was found between Diadema test diameter and population density at seven sites in Lameshur Bay, St. John, United States Virgin Islands. The regression of this relationship improved when test diameter was plotted against density per unit grazing area. A field experiment demonstrated that 1) Diadema has the ability to reduce skeletal body size, and 2) direction (growth or shrinkage) and rate of growth can be predicted accurately based on the urchin's body size and population density. The ability to adjust body size as density fluctuates may allow Diadema to persist when density increases, by shrinking and reducing metabolic costs, and to take advantage of decreases in density, by increasing in size and fecundity.     

Dynamics of a harvested moose population in a variable environment

1. Population size, calves per female, female mean age and adult sex ratio of a moose ( Alces alces ) population in Vefsn, northern Norway were reconstructed from 1967 to 1993 using cohort analysis and catch-at-age data from 96% (6752) of all individuals harvested.
2. The dynamics of the population were influenced mainly by density-dependent harvesting, stochastic variation in climate and intrinsic variation in the age-structure of the female segment of the population.
3. A time delay in the assignment of hunting permits in relation to population size increased fluctuations in population size.
4. Selective harvesting of calves and yearlings increased the mean age of adult females in the population, and, because fecundity in moose is strongly age-specific, the number of calves per female concordantly increased. However, after years with high recruitment, the adult mean age decreased as large cohorts entered the adult age-groups. This age-structure effect generated cycles in the rate of recruitment to the population and fluctuations introduced time-lags in the population dynamics.
5. An inverse relationship between recruitment rate and population density, mediated by a density-dependent decrease in female body condition, could potentially have constituted a regulatory mechanism in the dynamics of the population, but this effect was counteracted by a density-dependent increase in the mean age of adult females.
6. Stochastic variation in winter snow depth and summer temperature had delayed effects on recruitment rate and in turn population growth rate, apparently through effects on female body condition before conception.     

Density-dependent reproduction in the European rabbit: a consequence of individual response and age-dependent reproductive performance

Density dependence of reproduction has generally been proposed to be caused by habitat heterogeneity and by the individual response of reproductive output. However, a further mechanism might generate density dependence of average reproductive rates. High density situations might be associated with a high proportion of first-season breeders which often show a principally lower reproductive performance. We tested for the existence of the latter mechanism as well as for density-dependent individual changes of reproductive effort in a population of European rabbits living in a homogeneous grassland habitat. The study was conducted over a period of eleven years. Overall, a strong relationship between mean reproductive rates and the breeding density of females was apparent. All necessary conditions for the presence of a density-dependent effect caused by age-dependent reproduction were fulfilled: Fluctuations of breeding density were paralleled by variations in the proportion of one-year-old females. These one-year-old, first-season breeders showed a consistently lower reproductive performance than older females, which might be caused by their lower body mass and their lower social rank. However, we also found strong evidence for density-dependent response of individual reproductive effort: Individual changes in fecundity over successive years were explained by changes in the breeding density of females. The results suggest that density dependence of reproduction in European rabbits is due to an interaction of age-dependent reproductive performance together with short-term fluctuations in breeding density, and a density-dependent, individual based response of reproductive rates. We further conclude that the lower reproductive performance of first-season breeders in age-structured animal populations may contribute substantially to interannual, and under particular circumstances to density-dependent variations of mean reproductive rates.     

Global climate change and reindeer: effects of winter weather on the autumn weight and growth of calves

Reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which constitute a biological resource of vital importance for the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents, and inhabit extremely seasonal environments, have received little attention in the global change debate. We investigated how body weight and growth rate of reindeer calves were affected by large-scale climatic variability [measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index] and density in one population in central Norway. Body weights of calves in summer and early winter, as well as their growth rate (summer to early winter), were significantly influenced by density and the NAO index when cohorts were in utero. Males were heavier and had higher absolute growth than females, but there was no evidence that preweaning condition of male and female calves were influenced differently by the NAO winter index. Increasing NAO index had a negative effect on calves' body weight and growth rate. Increasing density significantly reduced body weight and growth rate of calves, and accentuated the effect of the NAO winter index. Winters with a higher NAO index are thus severe for reindeer calves in this area and their effects are associated with nutritional stress experienced by the dams during pregnancy or immediately after calving. Moreover, increased density may enhance intra-specific competition and limits food available at the individual level within cohorts. We conclude that if the current pattern of global warming continues, with greater change occurring in northern latitudes and during winter as is predicted, reduced body weight of reindeer calves may be a consequence in areas where winters with a high NAO index are severe. This will likely have an effect on the livelihood of many northern indigenous peoples, both economically and culturally.     

Density-dependent habitat selection and partitioning between two sympatric ungulates

Theory on density-dependent habitat selection predicts that as population density of a species increases, use of higher quality (primary) habitat by individuals declines while use of lower quality (secondary) habitat rises. Habitat partitioning is often considered the primary mechanism for coexistence between similar species, but how this process evolves with changes in population density remains to be empirically tested for free-ranging ungulates. We used resource-selection functions to quantify density effects on landscape-scale habitat selection of two sympatric species of ungulates [moose (Alces alces) and elk (Cervus canadensis manitobensis)] in Riding Mountain National Park, Manitoba, Canada (2000–2011). The density of elk was actively reduced from 1.2 to 0.4 elk km^?2 through increased hunting effort during the period of study, while moose density decreased without additional human influence from 1.6–0.7 moose km^?2. Patterns of habitat selection during winter by both species changed in accordance to expectations from density-dependent habitat-selection theory. At low intraspecific density, moose and elk did not partition habitat, as both species selected strongly for mixed forest (primary habitat providing both food and cover), but did so in different areas segregated across an elevational gradient. As intraspecific density increased, selection for primary habitat by both species decreased, while selection for secondary, lower quality habitat such as agricultural fields (for elk) and built-up areas (for moose) increased. We show that habitat-selection strategies during winter for moose and elk, and subsequent effects on habitat partitioning, depend heavily on the position in state space (density) of both species.     

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.     

Interactive effects of past and present environments on overwintering success-a reciprocal transplant experiment

Life-history traits are influenced by environmental factors throughout the lifespan of an individual. The relative importance of past versus present environment on individual fitness, therefore, is a relevant question in populations that face the challenge of temporally varying environment. We studied the interacting effects of past and present density on body mass, condition, and survival in enclosure populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) using a reciprocal transplant design. In connection with the cyclic dynamics of natural vole populations, our hypothesis was that individuals born in low-density enclosures would do better overwintering in low-density enclosures than in high-density enclosures and vice versa. Our results show that the effect of summer (past) density was strong especially on survival and body mass. The response of body mass to summer density was negative in both winter (present) density groups, whereas the response of survival probability was nonlinear and differed between the winter density groups. In particular, our data show a trend for higher overwintering success of individuals originating from the lowest summer densities in low winter density and vice versa. We therefore conclude that the capacity of individuals to respond to a change in density was constrained by the delayed density-dependent effects of environment experienced in the past. These effects have the potential to contribute to vole population dynamics. Possible mechanisms mediating the effects of past environment into present performance include both intrinsic and environmental factors.     

Effects of diet and body condition on fecal progestagen excretion in elk

Recent research demonstrated the utility of fecal progestagens (P4) for detecting pregnancy in elk (Cervus elaphus) during mid- to late gestation. Several factors, however, may influence fecal P4 excretion and limit its use in free-ranging animals. We investigated the effects of nutrition and body condition (percent ingesta-free body fat) on fecal P4 concentrations and incidence of abortion. During mid-gestation (late December 1997 through early March 1998), 40 gravid cow elk varying in body condition were placed on three diets (high, medium, and low) in which the amount of food offered varied. Feces were collected periodically and analyzed for P4 via radioimmunoassay. We found no significant effect of dietary treatment on P4 concentrations, but as body condition declined, P4 concentrations declined significantly. This decline did not impede the ability to detect pregnancy based on previously reported criteria, even for elk in such poor condition that they aborted. However, fecal P4 concentrations in 10% (4/39) of samples collected from 13 non-pregnant animals maintained on a high plane of nutrition were false-positive for pregnancy. We suggest alternate criteria for determining pregnancy in elk using fecal P4 values: > 1.25 micrograms/g feces as pregnant, < 1.0 microgram/g feces as non-pregnant, and 1.0-1.25 micrograms/g feces as inconclusive. Finally, two cows that aborted did not abort until weeks after being classified as emaciated and near death, suggesting that nutrition-associated abortion in elk may not occur during mid-gestation except under extremely harsh conditions.     

Density dependence in a fluctuating wild reindeer herd; maternal vs. offspring effects

Summary The Hardangervidda wild reindeer herd in Norway is the largest in Western Europe. It has fluctuated between 7000 and 32000 animals during the last 35 years. Four density-dependent effects were found: 1. A food limitation effect due to a shift in diet after overgrazing lichen on the winter range. This led to increased tooth wear and lowered body size and fat reserves. 2. A significant correlation between population density and juvenile winter survival rate. No effect on adult female survival rate was found. 3. A cohort effect. After population increase and overgrazing, recruitment was reduced by 30% and remained so after population reduction. Birth weights had increased by 30% 5 years after population reduction and the mean calving time was earlier. As a result, after population reduction weights of newborns were 40% greater at a comparable date. Neonatal survival rate was related to maternal condition during the last part of gestation which coincides with the peak winter snow accumulation. The slow increase in adult dressed body weights (DBW) after population reduction is due to the combined effects of increased tooth wear when winter range was limiting and to the cohort-generation time, so that an improvement in neonatal survival and size was first expressed in subsequent offspring cohorts. 4. An inter-generation effect. During 30 years of resource limitation, DBW decreased by 23%, birth rate was unchanged after the first peak, while fecundity increased by 15%, suggesting increased reproductive effort per unit body weight. Natural selection for increased reproductive effort by smaller females when food was limiting was suggested. Some size-effect due to hunters selecting the largest adult phenotypes was possible but not the main cause. These results do not support some earlier hypotheses about the effects of population density on size at maturity in ungulates.     

Reproductive success and failure: the role of winter body mass in reproductive allocation in Norwegian moose

A life history strategy that favours somatic growth over reproduction is well known for long-lived iteroparous species, especially in unpredictable environments. Risk-sensitive female reproductive allocation can be achieved by a reduced reproductive effort at conception, or the subsequent adjustment of investment during gestation or lactation in response to unexpected environmental conditions or resource availability. We investigated the relative importance of reduced investment at conception compared with later in the reproductive cycle (i.e. prenatal, perinatal or neonatal mortality) in explaining reproductive failure in two high-density moose (Alces alces) populations in southern Norway. We followed 65 multiparous, global positioning system (GPS)-collared females throughout the reproductive cycle and focused on the role of maternal nutrition during gestation in determining reproductive success using a quasi-experimental approach to manipulate winter forage availability. Pregnancy rates in early winter were normal (≥0.8) in all years while spring calving rates ranged from 0.4 to 0.83, with prenatal mortality accounting for most of the difference. Further losses over summer reduced autumn recruitment rates to 0.23–0.69, despite negligible predation. Over-winter mass loss explained variation in both spring calving and autumn recruitment success better than absolute body mass in early or late winter. Although pregnancy was related to body mass in early winter, overall reproductive success was unrelated to pre-winter body condition. We therefore concluded that reproductive success was limited by winter nutritional conditions. However, we could not determine whether the observed reproductive allocation adjustment was a bet-hedging strategy to maximise reproduction without compromising survival or whether females were simply unable to invest more resources in their offspring.     

Fertility Control in Free-Ranging Elk Using Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Agonist Leuprolide: Effects on Reproduction,Behavior, and Body Condition

ABSTRACT Overabundant elk (Cervus elaphus) populations have become a significant problem in many areas of North America. This is particularly true for protected areas where high densities of elk can cause long-term ecological degradation. When lethal control is not acceptable in these environments, resource managers must often consider alternative methods for reducing the size of resident elk populations. A potential management alternative is controlling the fertility of female elk. A promising new approach to wildlife contraception involves the use of biodegradable implants containing the gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist leuprolide. During fall 2002-spring 2004, we compared pregnancy rates, reproductive behavior, daily activity patterns, and body condition of 17 free-ranging female elk treated with a leuprolide formulation with 17 untreated females, in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. After treatment, the pregnancy rate of treated elk was 0%, whereas 79% of control elk became pregnant. The effects of treatment were reversed the subsequent year with the pregnancy rate of treated females 100% compared with 91% for controls. Reproductive behaviors were similar for treated and control elk during the breeding and postbreeding seasons; treated elk did not exhibit postrut reproductive behaviors. Moreover, we found no differences in daily activity patterns of experimental groups during the breeding or postbreeding seasons. Treated elk did not show improved body condition over pregnant females. Instead, treated females catabolized proportionately more body fat during winter after treatment and at a higher rate than pregnant control elk. However, this effect was reversed the next spring with no difference in body fat between treated and control elk. We conclude from this experiment that leuprolide, administered as a controlled release formulation, offers a safe and effective method of controlling fertility in free-ranging female elk. However, practical application is limited by treatment duration and the need to treat females before the breeding season.     

The relative roles of density and climatic variation on population dynamics and fecundity rates in three contrasting ungulate species

The relative influences of density-dependent and -independent processes on vital rates and population dynamics have been debated in ecology for over half a century, yet it is only recently that both processes have been shown to operate within the same population. However, generalizations on the role of each process across species are rare. Using a process-orientated generalized linear modelling approach we show that variations in fecundity rates in populations of three species of ungulates with contrasting life histories are associated with density and winter weather in a remarkably similar manner. However, there are differences and we speculate that they are a result of differences in size between the species. Much previous research exploring the association between vital rates, population dynamics and density-dependent and -independent processes has used pattern-orientated approaches to decompose time-series into contributions from density-dependent and -independent processes. Results from these analyses are sometimes used to infer associations between vital rates, density and climatic variables. We compare results from pattern-orientated analyses of time-series with process-orientated analyses and report that the two approaches give different results. The approach of analysing relationships between vital rates, density and climatic variables may detect important processes influencing population dynamics that time-series methodologies may overlook.     

Density-dependent responses of fawn cohort body mass in two contrasting roe deer populations

We investigated the influence of population density on juvenile body mass in two contrasting roe deer populations, in Sweden (Bogesund) and France (Chizé), in which density was monitored for ≥15 years. We investigated the effect of population density and climatic conditions on cohort performance. We predicted that: (1) body mass of growing fawns should be sensitive to environmental changes, showing marked between-year variation (i.e., cohort effects), (2) fawns in the less productive (weakly seasonal, weakly predictable summer weather) habitat of Chizé should show stronger density-dependent responses due to more severe food competition during summer than fawns in the more productive (markedly seasonal, moderately predictable summer weather) habitat of Bogesund, and (3) fawns at Bogesund should be heavier both in absolute terms and relative to their size than their conspecifics in Chizé due to a higher degree of fat accumulation in northern environments. In both study sites we found marked cohort variation and clear effects of density, with body mass varying by as much as 29% over years. While neither summer nor winter climate influenced fawn body mass at Bogesund, fawns tended to be lighter after summers with high temperatures at Chizé. In addition, fawns were heavier after acorn mast years experienced in utero at Bogesund. As expected, the strength of the density-dependent response of fawn body mass was greater at Chizé than at Bogesund. For a given density, male fawns were consistently heavier than females in both sites. Lastly, both sexes at Bogesund had higher absolute body mass and were larger for a given body size than in Chizé. Our results clearly demonstrate that absolute density is a poor predictor of roe deer performance and supports the view that habitat quality has an overwhelming importance for determining fawn body mass in roe deer populations.     

Fecundity of the autumnal moth depends on pooled geometrid abundance without a time lag: implications for cyclic population dynamics

1. The abundance and fecundity-related body size variation of the cyclic autumnal moth Epirrita autumnata were monitored from the early increase phase and throughout the outbreak to the end of the density decline in northernmost Norway during 1999-2006. Another geometrid, the winter moth Operophtera brumata, did not increase in density until the autumnal moth had its post-peak in 2004, and was at its own peak concurrent with the steeply declining autumnal moth abundance in 2005-06. 2. The body size variables measured (forewing lengths of males and females and hind femur lengths of males) of the autumnal moth showed a similar density-dependent response, i.e. increasing density was associated with decreasing body size and fecundity. Nevertheless, regression analyses clearly ranked the pooled geometrid abundance without a time lag as the best predictor for the body size variation, ahead of the abundance of the autumnal moth or past abundance of all geometrids. 3. Nondelayed effects of lowered food quality and absolute shortage of foliage under congested conditions are the most plausible reasons for reduced body size. 4. Two most commonly proposed causal factors of the autumnal moth population cycle, i.e. delayed inducible resistance of the host plant (mountain birch Betula pubescens czerepanovii) and delayed density-dependent parasitism by specialized hymenopteran parasitoids, cannot easily explain the diverging population trends between the autumnal and winter moths. 5. We suggest that either the inducible resistance of the host tree or the host utilization of the most important parasitoids and/or pathogens have to be strictly species-specific between these closely related moth species to produce the population dynamics observed. That fecundity of the autumnal moth was best related to the pooled geometrid abundance weakens support for the former hypothesis, while our lack of host-specific information limits conclusions about the role of natural enemies.     

Dynamics of Newly Established Elk Populations

Abstract: The dynamics of newly established elk (Cervus elaphus) populations can provide insights about maximum sustainable rates of reproduction, survival, and increase. However, data used to estimate rates of increase typically have been limited to counts and rarely have included complementary estimates of vital rates. Complexities of population dynamics cannot be understood without considering population processes as well as population states. We estimated pregnancy rates, survival rates, age ratios, and sex ratios for reintroduced elk at Theodore Roosevelt National Park, North Dakota, USA; combined vital rates in a population projection model; and compared model projections with observed elk numbers and population ratios. Pregnancy rates in January (early in the second trimester of pregnancy) averaged 54.1% (SE = 5.4%) for subadults and 91.0% (SE = 1.7%) for adults, and 91.6% of pregnancies resulted in recruitment at 8 months. Annual survival rates of adult females averaged 0.96 (95% CI = 0.94-0.98) with hunting included and 0.99 (95% CI = 0.97-0.99) with hunting excluded from calculations. Our fitted model explained 99.8% of past variation in population estimates and represents a useful new tool for short-term management planning. Although we found no evidence of temporal variation in vital rates, variation in population composition caused substantial variation in projected rates of increase (Λ = 1.20-1.36). Restoring documented hunter harvests and removals of elk by the National Park Service led to a potential rate of Λ = 1.26. Greater rates of increase substantiated elsewhere were within the expected range of chance variation, given our model and estimates of vital rates. Rates of increase realized by small elk populations are too variable to support inferences about habitat quality or density dependence.     

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.