首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
We examined Type I error rates of Felsenstein's (1985; Am. Nat. 125:1-15) comparative method of phylogenetically independent contrasts when branch lengths are in error and the model of evolution is not Brownian motion. We used seven evolutionary models, six of which depart strongly from Brownian motion, to simulate the evolution of two continuously valued characters along two different phylogenies (15 and 49 species). First, we examined the performance of independent contrasts when branch lengths are distorted systematically, for example, by taking the square root of each branch segment. These distortions often caused inflated Type I error rates, but performance was almost always restored when branch length transformations were used. Next, we investigated effects of random errors in branch lengths. After the data were simulated, we added errors to the branch lengths and then used the altered phylogenies to estimate character correlations. Errors in the branches could be of two types: fixed, where branch lengths are either shortened or lengthened by a fixed fraction; or variable, where the error is a normal variate with mean zero and the variance is scaled to the length of the branch (so that expected error relative to branch length is constant for the whole tree). Thus, the error added is unrelated to the microevolutionary model. Without branch length checks and transformations, independent contrasts tended to yield extremely inflated and highly variable Type I error rates. Type I error rates were reduced, however, when branch lengths were checked and transformed as proposed by Garland et al. (1992; Syst. Biol. 41:18-32), and almost never exceeded twice the nominal P-value at alpha = 0.05. Our results also indicate that, if branch length transformations are applied, then the appropriate degrees of freedom for testing the significance of a correlation coefficient should, in general, be reduced to account for estimation of the best branch length transformation. These results extend those reported in Díaz-Uriarte and Garland (1996; Syst. Biol. 45:27-47), and show that, even with errors in branch lengths and evolutionary models different from Brownian motion, independent contrasts are a robust method for testing hypotheses of correlated evolution.  相似文献   

2.
Some of the most basic questions about the history of life concern evolutionary trends. These include determining whether or not metazoans have become more complex over time, whether or not body size tends to increase over time (the Cope-Depéret rule), or whether or not brain size has increased over time in various taxa, such as mammals and birds. Despite the proliferation of studies on such topics, assessment of the reliability of results in this field is hampered by the variability of techniques used and the lack of statistical validation of these methods. To solve this problem, simulations are performed using a variety of evolutionary models (gradual Brownian motion, speciational Brownian motion, and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck), with or without a drift of variable amplitude, with variable variance of tips, and with bounds placed close or far from the starting values and final means of simulated characters. These are used to assess the relative merits (power, Type I error rate, bias, and mean absolute value of error on slope estimate) of several statistical methods that have recently been used to assess the presence of evolutionary trends in comparative data. Results show widely divergent performance of the methods. The simple, nonphylogenetic regression (SR) and variance partitioning using phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) with a broken stick selection procedure have greatly inflated Type I error rate (0.123-0.180 at a 0.05 threshold), which invalidates their use in this context. However, they have the greatest power. Most variants of Felsenstein's independent contrasts (FIC; five of which are presented) have adequate Type I error rate, although two have a slightly inflated Type I error rate with at least one of the two reference trees (0.064-0.090 error rate at a 0.05 threshold). The power of all contrast-based methods is always much lower than that of SR and PVR, except under Brownian motion with a strong trend and distant bounds. Mean absolute value of error on slope of all FIC methods is slightly higher than that of phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS), SR, and PVR. PGLS performs well, with low Type I error rate, low error on regression coefficient, and power comparable with some FIC methods. Four variants of skewness analysis are examined, and a new method to assess significance of results is presented. However, all have consistently low power, except in rare combinations of trees, trend strength, and distance between final means and bounds. Globally, the results clearly show that FIC-based methods and PGLS are globally better than nonphylogenetic methods and variance partitioning with PVR. FIC methods and PGLS are sensitive to the model of evolution (and, hence, to branch length errors). Our results suggest that regressing raw character contrasts against raw geological age contrasts yields a good combination of power and Type I error rate. New software to facilitate batch analysis is presented.  相似文献   

3.
4.
Abstract This study is concerned with statistical methods used for the analysis of comparative data (in which observations are not expected to be independent because they are sampled across phylogenetically related species). The phylogenetically independent contrasts (PIC), phylogenetic generalized least‐squares (PGLS), and phylogenetic autocorrelation (PA) methods are compared. Although the independent contrasts are not orthogonal, they are independent if the data conform to the Brownian motion model of evolution on which they are based. It is shown that uncentered correlations and regressions through the origin using the PIC method are identical to those obtained using PGLS with an intercept included in the model. The PIC method is a special case of PGLS. Corrected standard errors are given for estimates of the ancestral states based on the PGLS approach. The treatment of trees with hard polytomies is discussed and is shown to be an algorithmic rather than a statistical problem. Some of the relationships among the methods are shown graphically using the multivariate space in which variables are represented as vectors with respect to OTUs used as coordinate axes. The maximum‐likelihood estimate of the autoregressive parameter, ρ, has not been computed correctly in previous studies (an appendix with MATLAB code provides a corrected algorithm). The importance of the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the connection matrix, W, for the distribution of ρ is discussed. The PA method is shown to have several problems that limit its usefulness in comparative studies. Although the PA method is a generalized least‐squares procedure, it cannot be made equivalent to the PGLS method using a phylogenetic model.  相似文献   

5.
Morphological integration describes the degree to which sets of organismal traits covary with one another. Morphological covariation may be evaluated at various levels of biological organization, but when characterizing such patterns across species at the macroevolutionary level, phylogeny must be taken into account. We outline an analytical procedure based on the evolutionary covariance matrix that allows species-level patterns of morphological integration among structures defined by sets of traits to be evaluated while accounting for the phylogenetic relationships among taxa, providing a flexible and robust complement to related phylogenetic independent contrasts based approaches. Using computer simulations under a Brownian motion model we show that statistical tests based on the approach display appropriate Type I error rates and high statistical power for detecting known levels of integration, and these trends remain consistent for simulations using different numbers of species, and for simulations that differ in the number of trait dimensions. Thus, our procedure provides a useful means of testing hypotheses of morphological integration in a phylogenetic context. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating evolutionary patterns of morphological integration in head shape for a lineage of Plethodon salamanders, and find significant integration between cranial shape and mandible shape. Finally, computer code written in R for implementing the procedure is provided.  相似文献   

6.
Studies of evolutionary correlations commonly use phylogenetic regression (i.e., independent contrasts and phylogenetic generalized least squares) to assess trait covariation in a phylogenetic context. However, while this approach is appropriate for evaluating trends in one or a few traits, it is incapable of assessing patterns in highly multivariate data, as the large number of variables relative to sample size prohibits parametric test statistics from being computed. This poses serious limitations for comparative biologists, who must either simplify how they quantify phenotypic traits, or alter the biological hypotheses they wish to examine. In this article, I propose a new statistical procedure for performing ANOVA and regression models in a phylogenetic context that can accommodate high‐dimensional datasets. The approach is derived from the statistical equivalency between parametric methods using covariance matrices and methods based on distance matrices. Using simulations under Brownian motion, I show that the method displays appropriate Type I error rates and statistical power, whereas standard parametric procedures have decreasing power as data dimensionality increases. As such, the new procedure provides a useful means of assessing trait covariation across a set of taxa related by a phylogeny, enabling macroevolutionary biologists to test hypotheses of adaptation, and phenotypic change in high‐dimensional datasets.  相似文献   

7.
Most recent papers avoid describing macroecological relationships and interpreting then without a previous control of non-independence in data caused by phylogenetic patterns in data. In this paper, we analyzed the geographic range size – body size relationship for 70 species of New World terrestrial Carnivora (fissipeds) using various phylogenetic comparative methods and simulation procedures to assess their statistical performance. Autocorrelation analyses suggested a strong phylogenetic pattern for body size, but not for geographic range size. The correlation between the two traits was estimated using standard Pearson correlation across species (TIPS) and four different comparative methods: Felsenstein's independent contrasts (PIC), autoregressive method (ARM), phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR) and phylogenetic generalized least-squares (PGLS). The correlation between the two variables was significant for all methods, except PIC, in such a way that ecological mechanisms (i.e., minimum viable population or environmental heterogeneity- physiological homeostasis), could be valid explanations for the relationship. Simulations using different O-U processes for each trait were run in order to estimate true Type I errors of each method. Type I errors at 5% were similar for all phylogenetic methods (always lower than 8%), but equal to 13.1% for TIPS. PIC usually performs better than all other methods under Brownian motion evolution, but not in this case using a more complex combination of evolutionary models. So, recent claims that using independent contrasts in ecological research can be too conservative are correct but, on the other hand, using simple across-species correlation is too liberal even under the more complex evolutionary models exhibited by the traits analyzed here.  相似文献   

8.
Brownian motion computer simulation was used to test the statistical properties of a spatial autoregressive method in estimating evolutionary correlations between two traits using interspecific comparative data. When applied with a phylogeny of 42 species, the method exhibited reasonable Type I and II error rates. Estimation abilities were comparable to those of independent contrasts and minimum evolution (parsimony) methods, and generally superior to a traditional nonphylogenetic approach (not taking phylogenies into account at all). However, the autoregressive method performed extremely poorly with a smaller phylogeny (15 species) and with nearly independent (“star”) phylogenies. In both of these situations, any phylogenetic autocorrelation present in the data was not detected by the method. Results show how diagnostic techniques (e.g., Moran's I) can be useful in detecting and avoiding such situations, but that such techniques should not be used as definitive evidence that phylogenetic correlation is not present in a set of comparative data. The correction factor (α) proposed by Gittleman and Kot (1990) for use in weighting phylogenetic information had little effect in most analyses of 15 or 42 species with incorrect phylogenetic information, and may require much larger sample sizes before significant improvement is shown. With the sample sizes tested in this study, however, the autoregressive method implemented with this correction factor and correct phylogenetic information led to downwardly biased estimates of the absolute magnitude of the evolutionary correlation between two traits. Cautions and recommendations for implemention of the spatial autoregressive method are given; computer programs to conduct the analyses are available on request.  相似文献   

9.
The data used in studies of bivariate interspecific allometry usually violate the assumption of statistical independence. Although the traits of each species are commonly treated as independent, the expression of a trait among species within a genus may covary because of shared common ancestry. The same effect exists for genera within a family and so on up the phylogenetic hierarchy. Determining sample size by counting data points overestimates the effective sample size, which then leads to overestimating the degrees of freedom that should be used in calculating probabilities and confidence intervals. This results in an inflated Type 1 error rate. Although some workers (e.g., Felsenstein [1985] Am. Nat. 125:1–15) have suggested that this issue may invalidate interspecific allometry as a comparative method, a correction for the problem can be approximated with variance components from a nested analysis of variance. Variance components partition the total variation in the data set among the levels of the nested hierarchy. If the variance component for each nested level is weighted by the number of groups at that level, the sum of these values is an estimate of an effective sample size for the data set which reflects the effects of phylogenetic constraint. Analysis of two data sets, using taxonomy to define levels of the nested hierarchy, suggests that it has been common for published studies of interspecific allometry to severely overestimate the number of degrees of freedom. Interspecific allometry remains an important comparative method for evaluating questions concerning individual species that are not similarly addressed by the format of most of the newer comparative methods. With the correction proposed here for estimating degrees of freedom, the major statistical weakness of the procedure is substantially reduced. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.  相似文献   

10.
Physiological and ecological allometries often pose linear regression problems characterized by (1) noncausal, phylogenetically autocorrelated independent (x) and dependent (y) variables (characters); (2) random variation in both variables; and (3) a focus on regression slopes (allometric exponents). Remedies for the phylogenetic autocorrelation of species values (phylogenetically independent contrasts) and variance structure of the data (reduced major axis [RMA] regression) have been developed, but most functional allometries are reported as ordinary least squares (OLS) regression without use of phylogenetically independent contrasts. We simulated Brownian diffusive evolution of functionally related characters and examined the importance of regression methodologies and phylogenetic contrasts in estimating regression slopes for phylogenetically constrained data. Simulations showed that both OLS and RMA regressions exhibit serious bias in estimated regression slopes under different circumstances but that a modified orthogonal (least squares variance-oriented residual [LSVOR]) regression was less biased than either OLS or RMA regressions. For strongly phylogenetically structured data, failure to use phylogenetic contrasts as regression data resulted in overestimation of the strength of the regression relationship and a significant increase in the variance of the slope estimate. Censoring of data sets by simulated extinction of taxa did not affect the importance of appropriate regression models or the use of phylogenetic contrasts.  相似文献   

11.
Taxon sampling, correlated evolution, and independent contrasts   总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14  
Independent contrasts are widely used to incorporate phylogenetic information into studies of continuous traits, particularly analyses of evolutionary trait correlations, but the effects of taxon sampling on these analyses have received little attention. In this paper, simulations were used to investigate the effects of taxon sampling patterns and alternative branch length assignments on the statistical performance of correlation coefficients and sign tests; "full-tree" analyses based on contrasts at all nodes and "paired-comparisons" based only on contrasts of terminal taxon pairs were also compared. The simulations showed that random samples, with respect to the traits under consideration, provide statistically robust estimates of trait correlations. However, exact significance tests are highly dependent on appropriate branch length information; equal branch lengths maintain lower Type I error than alternative topological approaches, and adjusted critical values of the independent contrast correlation coefficient are provided for use with equal branch lengths. Nonrandom samples, with respect to univariate or bivariate trait distributions, introduce discrepancies between interspecific and phylogenetically structured analyses and bias estimates of underlying evolutionary correlations. Examples of nonrandom sampling processes may include community assembly processes, convergent evolution under local adaptive pressures, selection of a nonrandom sample of species from a habitat or life-history group, or investigator bias. Correlation analyses based on species pairs comparisons, while ignoring deeper relationships, entail significant loss of statistical power and as a result provide a conservative test of trait associations. Paired comparisons in which species differ by a large amount in one trait, a method introduced in comparative plant ecology, have appropriate Type I error rates and high statistical power, but do not correctly estimate the magnitude of trait correlations. Sign tests, based on full-tree or paired-comparison approaches, are highly reliable across a wide range of sampling scenarios, in terms of Type I error rates, but have very low power. These results provide guidance for selecting species and applying comparative methods to optimize the performance of statistical tests of trait associations.  相似文献   

12.
Lack of resolution in a phylogenetic tree is usually represented as a polytomy, and often adding more data (loci and taxa) resolves the species tree. These are the ‘soft’ polytomies, but in other cases additional data fail to resolve relationships; these are the ‘hard’ polytomies. This latter case is often interpreted as a simultaneous radiation of lineages in the history of a clade. Although hard polytomies are difficult to address, model‐based approaches provide new tools to test these hypotheses. Here, we used a clade of 144 species of the South American lizard clade Eulaemus to estimate phylogenies using a traditional concatenated matrix and three species tree methods: *BEAST, BEST, and minimizing deep coalescences (MDC). The different species tree methods recovered largely discordant results, but all resolved the same polytomy (e.g. very short internodes amongst lineages and low nodal support in Bayesian methods). We simulated data sets under eight explicit evolutionary models (including hard polytomies), tested these against empirical data (a total of 14 loci), and found support for two polytomies as the most plausible hypothesis for diversification of this clade. We discuss the performance of these methods and their limitations under the challenging scenario of hard polytomies. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London  相似文献   

13.
Comparative interspecific data sets have been analyzed routinely by phylogenetic methods, generally using Felsenstein’s phylogenetic independent contrasts (PIC) method. However, some authors have suggested that it may not be always necessary to incorporate phylogenetic information into statistical analyses of comparative data due to the low influence of shared history on the distribution of␣character states. The main goal of this paper was to undertake a comparison of results from non-phylogenetic Pearson correlation of tip values (TIPs) and phylogenetic independent contrasts analyses (PICs), using 566 correlation coefficients derived from 65 published papers. From each study we collected the following data: taxonomic group, number of species, type of phylogeny, number of polytomies in the phylogenetic tree, if branch length was transformed or not, trait types, the original correlation coefficient between the traits (TIPs) and the correlation coefficient between the traits using the independent contrasts method (PICs). The slope estimated from a regression of PIC correlations on TIP correlations was lower than one, and a paired t-test showed that correlations from PIC are significantly smaller than those obtained by TIP. Thus, PIC analyses tend to decrease the correlation between traits and usually increases the P-value and, thus, favoring the acceptance of the null hypothesis. Multiple factors, including taxonomic group, trait type and use of branch length transformations affected the change in decision regarding the acceptance of the null hypotheses and differences between PIC and TIP results. Due to the variety of factors affecting the differences between results provided by these methods, we suggest that comparative methods should be applied as a conservative approach to cross-species studies. Despite difficulties in quantifying precisely why these factors affect the differences between PIC and TIP, we also suggest that a better evaluation of evolutionary models underlying trait evolution is still necessary in this context and might explain some of the observed patterns.  相似文献   

14.
Although phylogenetic hypotheses can provide insights into mechanisms of evolution, their utility is limited by our inability to differentiate simultaneous speciation events (hard polytomies) from rapid cladogenesis (soft polytomies). In the present paper, we tested the potential for statistical power analysis to differentiate between hard and soft polytomies in molecular phytogenies. Classical power analysis typically is used a priori to determine the sample size required to detect a particular effect size at a particular level of significance (a) with a certain power (1 – β). A posteriori, power analysis is used to infer whether failure to reject a null hypothesis results from lack of an effect or from insufficient data (i.e., low power). We adapted this approach to molecular data to infer whether polytomies result from simultaneous branching events or from insufficient sequence information. We then used this approach to determine the amount of sequence data (sample size) required to detect a positive branch length (effect size). A worked example is provided based on the auklets (Charadriiformes: Alcidae), a group of seabirds among which relationships are represented by a polytomy, despite analyses of over 3000 bp of sequence data. We demonstrate the calculation of effect sizes and sample sizes from sequence data using a normal curve test for difference of a proportion from an expected value and a t-test for a difference of a mean from an expected value. Power analyses indicated that the data for the auklets should be sufficient to differentiate speciation events that occurred at least 100,000 yr apart (the duration of the shortest glacial and interglacial events of the Pleistocene), 2.6 million years ago.  相似文献   

15.
We modified the phylogenetic program MrBayes 3.1.2 to incorporate the compound Dirichlet priors for branch lengths proposed recently by Rannala, Zhu, and Yang (2012. Tail paradox, partial identifiability and influential priors in Bayesian branch length inference. Mol. Biol. Evol. 29:325-335.) as a solution to the problem of branch-length overestimation in Bayesian phylogenetic inference. The compound Dirichlet prior specifies a fairly diffuse prior on the tree length (the sum of branch lengths) and uses a Dirichlet distribution to partition the tree length into branch lengths. Six problematic data sets originally analyzed by Brown, Hedtke, Lemmon, and Lemmon (2010. When trees grow too long: investigating the causes of highly inaccurate Bayesian branch-length estimates. Syst. Biol. 59:145-161) are reanalyzed using the modified version of MrBayes to investigate properties of Bayesian branch-length estimation using the new priors. While the default exponential priors for branch lengths produced extremely long trees, the compound Dirichlet priors produced posterior estimates that are much closer to the maximum likelihood estimates. Furthermore, the posterior tree lengths were quite robust to changes in the parameter values in the compound Dirichlet priors, for example, when the prior mean of tree length changed over several orders of magnitude. Our results suggest that the compound Dirichlet priors may be useful for correcting branch-length overestimation in phylogenetic analyses of empirical data sets.  相似文献   

16.
Counting phylogenetic invariants in some simple cases.   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
An informal degrees of freedom argument is used to count the number of phylogenetic invariants in cases where we have three or four species and can assume a Jukes-Cantor model of base substitution with or without a molecular clock. A number of simple cases are treated and in each the number of invariants can be found. Two new classes of invariants are found: non-phylogenetic cubic invariants testing independence of evolutionary events in different lineages, and linear phylogenetic invariants which occur when there is a molecular clock. Most of the linear invariants found by Cavender (1989, Molec. Biol. Evol. 6, 301-316) turn out in the Jukes-Cantor case to be simple tests of symmetry of the substitution model, and not phylogenetic invariants.  相似文献   

17.
We prove that the slope parameter of the ordinary least squares regression of phylogenetically independent contrasts (PICs) conducted through the origin is identical to the slope parameter of the method of generalized least squares (GLSs) regression under a Brownian motion model of evolution. This equivalence has several implications: 1. Understanding the structure of the linear model for GLS regression provides insight into when and why phylogeny is important in comparative studies. 2. The limitations of the PIC regression analysis are the same as the limitations of the GLS model. In particular, phylogenetic covariance applies only to the response variable in the regression and the explanatory variable should be regarded as fixed. Calculation of PICs for explanatory variables should be treated as a mathematical idiosyncrasy of the PIC regression algorithm. 3. Since the GLS estimator is the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), the slope parameter estimated using PICs is also BLUE. 4. If the slope is estimated using different branch lengths for the explanatory and response variables in the PIC algorithm, the estimator is no longer the BLUE, so this is not recommended. Finally, we discuss whether or not and how to accommodate phylogenetic covariance in regression analyses, particularly in relation to the problem of phylogenetic uncertainty. This discussion is from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives.  相似文献   

18.
The kinematics of helical motion are described for an organism with four degrees of freedom, relative to the organism's frame of reference. It can rotate about any of three orthogonal axes, but can translate only in the direction of one axis. In particular, equations are developed for calculating the pitch, radius, and angular frequency of the helical path from the translational and rotational velocities of the microorganism, correcting, and expanding the analysis of Gray J. (1955. J. Exp. Biol. 32:775-801).  相似文献   

19.
A number of metrics have been developed for estimating phylogenetic signal in data and to evaluate correlated evolution, inferring broad-scale evolutionary and ecological processes. Here, we proposed an approach called phylogenetic signal-representation (PSR) curve, built upon phylogenetic eigenvector regression (PVR). In PVR, selected eigenvectors extracted from a phylogenetic distance matrix are used to model interspecific variation. In the PSR curve, sequential PVR models are fitted after successively increasing the number of eigenvectors and plotting their R(2) against the accumulated eigenvalues. We used simulations to show that a linear PSR curve is expected under Brownian motion and that its shape changes under alternative evolutionary models. The PSR area, expressing deviations from Brownian motion, is strongly correlated (r= 0.873; P < 0.01) with Blomberg's K-statistics, so nonlinear PSR curves reveal if traits are evolving at a slower or higher rate than expected by Brownian motion. The PSR area is also correlated with phylogenetic half-life under an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, suggesting how both methods describe the shape of the relationship between interspecific variation and time since divergence among species. The PSR curve provides an elegant exploratory method to understand deviations from Brownian motion, in terms of acceleration or deceleration of evolutionary rates occurring at large or small phylogenetic distances.  相似文献   

20.
Implied weighting, a method for phylogenetic inference that actively seeks to downweight supposed homoplasy, has in recent years begun to be widely utilized in palaeontological datasets. Given the method's purported ability at handling widespread homoplasy/convergence, we investigate the effects of implied weighting on modelled phylogenetic data. We generated 100 character matrices consisting of 55 characters each using a Markov Chain morphology model of evolution based on a known phylogenetic tree. Rates of character evolution in these datasets were variable and generated by pulling from a gamma distribution for each character in the matrix. These matrices were then analysed under equal weighting and four settings of implied weights (= 1, 3, 5, and 10). Our results show that implied weighting is inconsistent in its ability to retrieve a known phylogenetic tree. Equally weighted analyses are found to generally be more conservative, retrieving higher frequency of polytomies but being less likely to generate erroneous topologies. Implied weighting is found to generally resolve polytomies while also propagating errors, resulting in an increase in both correctly and incorrectly resolved nodes with a tendency towards higher rates of error compared to equal weighting. Our results suggest that equal weights may be a preferable method for parsimony analysis.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号