Random marginal agreement coefficients: rethinking the adjustment for chance when measuring agreement

Agreement coefficients quantify how well a set of instruments agree in measuring some response on a population of interest. Many standard agreement coefficients (e.g. kappa for nominal, weighted kappa for ordinal, and the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) for continuous responses) may indicate increasing agreement as the marginal distributions of the two instruments become more different even as the true cost of disagreement stays the same or increases. This problem has been described for the kappa coefficients; here we describe it for the CCC. We propose a solution for all types of responses in the form of random marginal agreement coefficients (RMACs), which use a different adjustment for chance than the standard agreement coefficients. Standard agreement coefficients model chance agreement using expected agreement between two independent random variables each distributed according to the marginal distribution of one of the instruments. RMACs adjust for chance by modeling two independent readings both from the mixture distribution that averages the two marginal distributions. In other words, both independent readings represent first a random choice of instrument, then a random draw from the marginal distribution of the chosen instrument. The advantage of the resulting RMAC is that differences between the two marginal distributions will not induce greater apparent agreement. As with the standard agreement coefficients, the RMACs do not require any assumptions about the bivariate distribution of the random variables associated with the two instruments. We describe the RMAC for nominal, ordinal and continuous data, and show through the delta method how to approximate the variances of some important special cases.     

Measurement error in heat tolerance assays

Biological measurements inherently involve some measurement error (ME), which is a major concern because measurement accuracy (how closely a measurement reproduces the true value of the attribute being measured) and statistical power steadily decrease with increasing ME. However, ME has been largely overlooked in the thermal biology literature, which can be explained by the fact that thermotolerance estimates often involve the collapse or death of the tested individuals and measurements cannot be repeated in vivo with the same specimen under identical conditions. Here we assess inter- and intra-researcher (test-retest) reliability of heat tolerance measured as knockdown time from digital recordings of Drosophila subobscura flies individually assayed in vials with a dynamic method. We provide a summary of various estimators used to compute measurement reliability (the degree to which the measurement is affected by ME) together with their statistical properties. Our results indicate that the estimation of heat knockdown time has poor reliability: intra-researcher ME=29% and inter-researcher ME=34%. This difference is attributed to lack of ‘accurateness’ (the difference in the marginal distributions of the measurements taken by the two researchers) because measurement imprecision was essentially the same in both estimates (27%). In view of our results we conclude that thermal biologists should report the reliability of thermotolerance estimates and, when necessary, adopt some straightforward guidelines suggested here to improve measurement reliability.     

Dimensional characteristics of the Filipino dentition

This study concerns odontometric analysis of the Tagalog Filipinos in Manila, Philippines. Mesiodistal and buccolingual dimensions of the permanent dentition, a total of 56 variables, were studied in 100 males and 152 females. Results showed that their absolute tooth size was small. Relative tooth size, however, seemed to reflect their Southeast Asian Mongoloid origin. From univariate analysis, considerable male-female differences were shown in most of the variables studied. When correlation effects among the teeth were held constant through multivariate analysis, male-female distance was found to be small and substantial overlapping of the two multivariate distributions was evident. Only four variables could be shown by stepwise discriminant analysis to contribute significantly to the distance. Even the mandibular canine, as the strongest discriminator, could only account for 16.4% of the total multivariate distance. These contrasting findings for sex dimorphism in a set of teeth taken singly and taken jointly indicate that there are factors other than the teeth themselves that are expected to play important roles in determining overall male-female size differences in the set of teeth, and that these differences may not be as clear-cut as univariate analysis suggests.     

Digital dermatoglyphics in the Basque population: univariate and multivariate comparison with other Spanish populations

We have analyzed dermatoglyphic finger patterns in a Spanish Basque population (841 males and 911 females). Bimanual and sexual comparisons have been carried out by means of contingency analysis. The results in the Basque population are compared with those of other Spanish populations, based on univariate (chi 2 contingency test and Student's t-test) and multivariate (principal components analyses) statistical methods. Bilateral distribution asymmetry and sexual dimorphism were observed in the Basque sample. The results of the chi 2 test for pattern types in males and females show statistically significant differences between the Basques and other Spanish populations, with the exception of the males from El Bierzo. Comparing populations with regard to the Pattern Intensity Index, the differences observed are much lower; therefore, this confirms what other authors have suggested regarding the limited usefulness of indexes in populational comparisons. In the Caucasian variation range of pattern types, Basques are located in the high part with regard to arches, in the low part with regard to whorls and radial loops, and in an intermediate part in relation to ulnar loops and overall pattern intensity. Results of the multivariate comparisons show which populations are more or less distant from the Basque population and which variables are significant in contributing to these population relationships.     

A Simple Two‐Sample Rank Test for Multivariate Survival Outcomes with Left Truncation and Right Censoring

A distribution‐free two‐sample rank test is proposed for testing for differences between survival distributions in the analysis of biomedical studies in which two groups of subjects are followed over time for a particular outcome, which may recur. This method is motivated by an observational HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) study in which a group of HIV‐seropositive women and a comparable group of HIV‐seronegative women were examined every 6 months for the presence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), the cervical cancer precursor. Women entered the study serially and were subject to random loss to follow‐up. Only women free of CIN at study entry were followed resulting in left‐truncated survival times. If a woman is found to be CIN infected at a later examination, she is treated and then followed until CIN recurs. The two groups of women were compared at both occurrences of CIN on the basis of rank statistics. For the first occurrence of CIN, survival times since the beginning of the study (based on calendar time) are compared. For a recurrence of CIN, survival times since the first development of CIN are compared. The proposed test statistic for an overall difference between the two groups follows a chi‐square distribution with two degrees of freedom. Simulation results demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed test proposed test statistic, which reduces to the Gehan statistic if each person is followed only to the first failure and there is no serial enrollment.     

Korea–Japan JDZ to End in Deadlock?: The Potential for Unilateral Korean Exploration and Exploitation

Abstract

The Korea–Japan Joint Development Zone (JDZ) Agreement of 30 January 1974 was one of a number of innovative arrangements for cooperation in an overlapping maritime area. Nevertheless, four decades after its entry into force in 1978, the Agreement has not produced a single drop of oil. In contrast with Korea’s positive view on an oil discovery, Japan has held a negative stance since its concessionaires’ release of rights under the Agreement in 1992. Without Japan’s cooperation, the Agreement is a dead instrument. This article looks, from a Korean perspective, for the solutions whereby the Korea–Japan JDZ Agreement can operate.     

On sampling procedures in population and community ecology

In this paper we emphasize that sampling decisions in population and community ecology are context dependent. Thus, the selection of an appropriate sampling procedure should follow directly from considerations of the objectives of an investigation. We recognize eight sampling alternatives, which arise as a result of three basic dichotomies: parameter estimation versus pattern detection, univariate versus multivariate, and a discrete versus continuous sampling universe. These eight alternative sampling procedures are discussed as they relate to decisions regarding the required empirical sample size, the selection or arrangement of sampling units, and plot size and shape. Our results indicate that the decision-making process in sampling must be viewed as a flexible exercise, dictated not by generalized recommendations but by specific objectives: there is no panacea in ecological sampling. We also point to a number of unresolved sampling problems in ecology.