Germline gene editing and the precautionary principle

The precautionary principle aims to influence decision-making in contexts where some activity poses uncertain but potentially grave threats. This perfectly describes the controversy surrounding germline gene editing. This article considers whether the precautionary principle should influence how we weigh the risks and benefits of human germline interventions, focusing especially on the possible threats to the health of future generations. We distinguish between several existing forms of the precautionary principle, assess their plausibility and consider their implications for the ethics of germline modification. We also offer a novel form of the precautionary principle: the sufficientarian precautionary principle. Some plausible versions of the precautionary principle recommend placing somewhat greater weight on avoiding threats to future generations than on achieving short-term benefits. However, no plausible versions of the precautionary principle entail that we should outright reject the use germline gene editing in human reproduction and some, such as the sufficientarian version, might endorse its use.     

Uncommon commonalities: Cosmopolitan ethics as a framework for music education policy analysis

Contemporary American education policy rhetoric is problematic because its authors’ assertions, particularly those about the goals of education, frequently conflict with their implied moral and/or ethical commitments. This philosophical policy analysis uses Appiah's cosmopolitan principles to examine the ethical implications of current education and music education policy discourse and practice. While education policy rhetoric promoting the fulfillment of basic human needs through employment aligns with one aspect of the cosmopolitan principle of universal concern, policy makers’ assertions about unbridled economic competition contradicts cosmopolitans’ concern for all individuals. Contemporary education and music education policies that enable teachers to have freedom in selecting content and instructional practices reinforce the cosmopolitan principle of respect for legitimate difference, but discourse and action emphasizing standardization, including standardized outcomes, conflicts with the cosmopolitanism. Four recommendations are offered: use cosmopolitan ethics as a means of framing agreement or dissatisfaction with contemporary education policies; implement parts of the National Core Music Standards in ways that promote standards without standardization; advocate for the aspects of the Opportunity-To-Learn Standards for Music Instruction; consider how music educators’ day-to-day practices interface with the cosmopolitan ethics.     

The Precautionary Principle and Marine Environmental Protection: Slippery Shores,Rough Seas,and Rising Normative Tides

Law and policy implications of the precautionary principle in the field of marine environmental protection are explored in this paper in a three-part analysis. First, seven slippery aspects of the precautionary principle are highlighted, including confusion in terminology, definitional variations, definitional generalities, the spectrum of precautionary measures available, ongoing philosophical tensions and competing socioeconomic interests, debate over who should be responsible for making precautionary decisions, and limited interpretation by international tribunals. Second, the rather feeble precautionary responses to the tempestuous issues of climate change, hazardous chemicals, and overfishing are described. Third, the potential for the precautionary principle to synergize with human rights norms, such as the emerging right to a healthy environment, and other principles of sustainable development is discussed.     

Policy on Synthetic Biology: Deliberation,Probability, and the Precautionary Paradox

Synthetic biology is a cutting‐edge area of research that holds the promise of unprecedented health benefits. However, in tandem with these large prospective benefits, synthetic biology projects entail a risk of catastrophic consequences whose severity may exceed that of most ordinary human undertakings. This is due to the peculiar nature of synthetic biology as a ‘threshold technology’ which opens doors to opportunities and applications that are essentially unpredictable. Fears about these potentially unstoppable consequences have led to declarations from civil society groups calling for the use of a precautionary principle to regulate the field. Moreover, the principle is prevalent in law and international agreements. Despite widespread political recognition of a need for caution, the precautionary principle has been extensively criticized as a guide for regulatory policy. We examine a central objection to the principle: that its application entails crippling inaction and incoherence, since whatever action one takes there is always a chance that some highly improbable cataclysm will occur. In response to this difficulty, which we call the ‘precautionary paradox,’ we outline a deliberative means for arriving at threshold of probability below which potential dangers can be disregarded. In addition, we describe a Bayesian mechanism with which to assign probabilities to harmful outcomes. We argue that these steps resolve the paradox. The rehabilitated PP can thus provide a viable policy option to confront the uncharted waters of synthetic biology research.     

The Precautionary Preference: An American Perspective on the Precautionary Principle

The precautionary principle, a familiar constituent of international and European environmental law, has only very recently entered the vocabulary of domestic environmental policy debates in the United States. The question naturally arises what role such a principle should play in American law. By breaking down statements of the precautionary principle into distinct ele ments, one can more readily find ways in which U.S. law reflects the precau tionary principle. This analysis reveals that American environmental law con tains precautionary elements and goals in many and varied settings, from the management of natural ecosystems, to pollution control standards, to risk assessment methodology. However, the precautionary approach appears in a highly diluted or compromised form. With rare exceptions, U.S. law balances precaution against other considerations, most importantly cost. Therefore, while precautionary elements are firmly entrenched in U.S. environmental law, it is more accurate to say that it reflects a precautionary preference rather than the precautionary principle.     

Optimal control strategy for prevention of avian influenza pandemic

The spread of H5N1 virus to Europe and continued human infection in Southeast Asia have heightened pandemic concern. Although, fortunately, sustained human-to-human transmissions have not been reported yet, it is said that a pandemic virus which can be easily transmitted among humans certainly emerges in the future. In this study, we extended the previous studies for the prevention of the pandemic influenza to evaluate the time-dependent optimal prevention policies, which are associated with elimination policy and quarantine policy, considering its execution cost. Actually, the execution cost affects the optimal strategy of prevention policies and the prevention of the disease spread. We found that the quarantine policy is very important rather than the elimination policy during the disease spread, even if the unit execution cost of the quarantine policy is more expensive than that of the elimination policy. And also, the change of the unit execution cost does affect the total cumulative cost of the optimal prevention policies but does not affect the relative frequency of each cumulative execution cost. Furthermore, interestingly, we revealed that an optimal strategy to reduce the number of total infected humans might increase a chance of invadability of the mutant influenza.     

Reckoning perverse outcomes of resource conservation policies using the Ecological Footprint

Spatially expanding economies threaten the status of basic natural resources. In particular, wildlife habitats rarely benefit. Apart from protected areas, political-economic decision-making is ill-prepared to accommodate wildlife habitats with standard valuation methods. In some cases habitat loss is an inadvertent outcome of resource conservation policies intended to lower resource consumption.We recognize the term resource conservation as multifaceted, with a range of meanings from protecting wildlife habitats to efficiently allocating and using materials and energy. Resource conservation policies that spur economic benefits may produce unwanted outcomes. This is partly because linkages between economic and conservation goals seem tangential. Moreover, relevant information is imperfect and predictive tools are limited. This is particularly true for land converting impacts, which are often addressed after the fact, not during policy formulation, and can lead to successive resource degradation.We argue for the need to calculate the positive and negative land converting impacts from resource conservation policies that may expand the economy. Using the Ecological Footprint (EF) approach, we tested for potentially perverse outcomes of an existing resource conservation policy. In doing so, we conceptually mapped linkages among economic sectors to their cumulative effects of converting land. We assume an inverse relationship between economic expansion and land conservation.A New York State energy efficiency incentive program was tested using recent data from all tracked economic sectors. The economic data were converted in a series of steps from dollar values to energy units, to carbon dioxide emissions, and ultimately expressed in hectares of net land conversion. A policy scenario was compared to a reference scenario (no resource conservation policy), and the results anticipate a net gain in conserving land (0.6% reduced conversion). We interpret this as a potentially proportional offset favoring wildlife habitat retention. Two sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the policy’s impact on conserving land depended on both the affected economy’s scale (tripling reduces the estimated benefit to 0.2%), and the level of economic expansion that followed (doubling leads to a net loss of wildlands).This novel use of the EF approach may serve as a model for a more general approach to assessing a broader class of policies. It may also hold promise toward developing tools that can better examine well-intentioned resource conservation policies with uncertain outcomes. Our hope is that work like this can lead to better sets of tools for examining critical ecological–economic linkages for improved policy design.     

Global Climate Change and the Precautionary Principle

The precautionary principle is promoted as a common sense approach that avoids unreasonable delays in taking action. A weak form of the precautionary principle, that action should not wait until all uncertainties are resolved, is indeed common sense and consistent with even the most elementary application of the methods of decision making under uncertainty to the climate change problem. The standard tools of decision analysis imply conclusions consistent with a weak precau tionary principle of taking some action before all the evidence is in. Decision theory also reveals what the basis is for stronger recommendations from the precautionary principle, to the effect that action should be based on the most pessimistic possible interpretation of the future. This conclusion is only possible if prior beliefs are so pessimistic and so strong that they would outweigh any possible new scientific evidence.     

Climate change considerations are fundamental to management of deep‐sea resource extraction

Climate change manifestation in the ocean, through warming, oxygen loss, increasing acidification, and changing particulate organic carbon flux (one metric of altered food supply), is projected to affect most deep‐ocean ecosystems concomitantly with increasing direct human disturbance. Climate drivers will alter deep‐sea biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and may interact with disturbance from resource extraction activities or even climate geoengineering. We suggest that to ensure the effective management of increasing use of the deep ocean (e.g., for bottom fishing, oil and gas extraction, and deep‐seabed mining), environmental management and developing regulations must consider climate change. Strategic planning, impact assessment and monitoring, spatial management, application of the precautionary approach, and full‐cost accounting of extraction activities should embrace climate consciousness. Coupled climate and biological modeling approaches applied in the water and on the seafloor can help accomplish this goal. For example, Earth‐System Model projections of climate‐change parameters at the seafloor reveal heterogeneity in projected climate hazard and time of emergence (beyond natural variability) in regions targeted for deep‐seabed mining. Models that combine climate‐induced changes in ocean circulation with particle tracking predict altered transport of early life stages (larvae) under climate change. Habitat suitability models can help assess the consequences of altered larval dispersal, predict climate refugia, and identify vulnerable regions for multiple species under climate change. Engaging the deep observing community can support the necessary data provisioning to mainstream climate into the development of environmental management plans. To illustrate this approach, we focus on deep‐seabed mining and the International Seabed Authority, whose mandates include regulation of all mineral‐related activities in international waters and protecting the marine environment from the harmful effects of mining. However, achieving deep‐ocean sustainability under the UN Sustainable Development Goals will require integration of climate consideration across all policy sectors.     

Global and Local Concerns: What Attitudes and Beliefs Motivate Farmers to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change?

In response to agriculture''s vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people''s concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California''s Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers'' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.     

Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate‐Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is generally described as a tool for environmental decision making. Results from attributional LCA (ALCA), the most commonly used LCA method, often are presented in a way that suggests that policy decisions based on these results will yield the quantitative benefits estimated by ALCA. For example, ALCAs of biofuels are routinely used to suggest that the implementation of one alternative (say, a biofuel) will cause an X% change in greenhouse gas emissions, compared with a baseline (typically gasoline). However, because of several simplifications inherent in ALCA, the method, in fact, is not predictive of real‐world impacts on climate change, and hence the usual quantitative interpretation of ALCA results is not valid. A conceptually superior approach, consequential LCA (CLCA), avoids many of the limitations of ALCA, but because it is meant to model actual changes in the real world, CLCA results are scenario dependent and uncertain. These limitations mean that even the best practical CLCAs cannot produce definitive quantitative estimates of actual environmental outcomes. Both forms of LCA, however, can yield valuable insights about potential environmental effects, and CLCA can support robust decision making. By openly recognizing the limitations and understanding the appropriate uses of LCA as discussed here, practitioners and researchers can help policy makers implement policies that are less likely to have perverse effects and more likely to lead to effective environmental policies, including climate mitigation strategies.     

Quantitative assess the driving forces on the grassland degradation in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,in China

Grassland degradation in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), has attracted considerable concern because of its negative influence on the development of the local economy and the ecological security of China. Climate and human activities are considered as the main driving forces of grassland degradation. However, distinguishing their respective contributions to grassland degradation is a challenge. This study used the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach model, which coupling remote sensing (e.g. NDVI, LAI, near and mid-infrared bands) and meteorological data (precipitation, temperature and radiation), was adopted to simulate the actual and potential NPP in the QTP from 2001 to 2013. The difference between potential NPP and actual NPP was used to represent the influence of human activities. Results showed that nearly 38.8% of the total grassland area underwent degradation, whereas 61.2% experienced restoration. Furthermore, 56.7% of the degraded grassland areas were influenced by climate, and 19.9% were affected by human activities. The restored areas induced by human activities, climate variation, and the combination of the two factors accounted for 28.6%, 12.8% and 19.9% with an increases in NPP of 5923.4, 3188.1 and 5959.2 GgC, respectively. Therefore, climate was the principal driving force of grassland degradation, whereas human activities were the dominant factor in grassland restoration. Climate and human activities, as the potential driving force in grassland NPP variations, should be fully understood by a long term monitoring and the main causes exploring in its dynamics. In addition, the uncertainty of the driving forces should be clarifying immediately in the future, and provide scientific basis for policies and plans making in grassland management.     

Quantifying the Risk of Localised Animal Movement Bans for Foot-and-Mouth Disease

The maintenance of disease-free status from Foot-and-Mouth Disease is of significant socio-economic importance to countries such as the UK. The imposition of bans on the movement of susceptible livestock following the discovery of an outbreak is deemed necessary to prevent the spread of what is a highly contagious disease, but has a significant economic impact on the agricultural community in itself. Here we consider the risk of applying movement restrictions only in localised zones around outbreaks in order to help evaluate how quickly nation-wide restrictions could be lifted after notification. We show, with reference to the 2001 and 2007 UK outbreaks, that it would be practical to implement such a policy provided the basic reproduction ratio of known infected premises can be estimated. It is ultimately up to policy makers and stakeholders to determine the acceptable level of risk, involving a cost benefit analysis of the potential outcomes, but quantifying the risk of spread from different sized zones is a prerequisite for this. The approach outlined is relevant to the determination of control zones and vaccination policies and has the potential to be applied to future outbreaks of other diseases.     

Consequential Life Cycle Assessment of Policy Vulnerability to Price Effects

The application of life cycle assessment (LCA) in a policy context highlights the need for a “consequential” LCA (CLCA), which differs from an “attributional” LCA (ALCA). Although CLCA offers some advantages over ALCA, such as a capacity to account for emissions resulting from both substitution and price effects, it entails additional assumptions and cost and may yield estimates that are more uncertain (e.g., estimates of impact of biofuel policies on greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions). We illustrate how a CLCA that relies on simple partial equilibrium models could provide important insights on the direction and magnitude of price effects while limiting the complexity of CLCA. We describe how such a CLCA, when applied early in the policy life cycle, could help identify policy formulations that reduce the magnitude of adverse price effects relative to the beneficial substitution effect on emissions because—as the experience with biofuel regulations indicates—regulating price effects is costly and controversial. We conclude that the salient contribution of CLCA in the policy process might lie in warning policy makers about the vulnerabilities in a policy with regard to environmental impact and to help modify potentially counterproductive formulations rather than in deriving the precise estimates for uncertain variables, such as the life cycle GHG intensity of product or average indirect emissions.     

A review of climate change adaptation policies applied to landscape planning and design in Korea

This paper reviews how recent climate change policies in Korea have affected practices in landscape planning and design. By illuminating the gaps between government policies on climate change and actual practices in planning and design, the study aims to provide useful directions for future research and practices. The primary problems we found are as follows: (1) the government’s recent aggressive climate change policies have partly resulted in an adverse effect on the environment; (2) planning and design tools to implement climate change policies do not tend to consider local characteristics and different biophysical and sociocultural contexts; (3) climate change policies in Korea developed by different governmental departments are not coordinated well enough to effectively meet the policy goals; and (4) design tools or guidelines intended to aid the implementation of climate change policies at site level must be improved through the use of creative ideas and empirical tests. For future research, we recommend hunting for critical evidence as to why climate change policies are not implemented effectively in a particular local context, and determining how such failures can be overcome by applying adequate measures in planning and design.     

A modest proposal for restoration ecology

Restoration ecology struggles to mitigate human‐caused ecological damage. Non‐native species are a particular challenge. This article describes two restoration attempts following introduced species in California and then makes a radical culling proposal. Environmental regulations, legal protections, and restoration projects are necessary to preserve ecosystem services, but such policies are often unpopular. Restorers often struggle when public opinion opposes evidence‐based practice, and this occurs particularly when the interventions involve killing mammals. Therefore, restoration efforts may benefit from more attention to how individuals perceive the acceptability of environmental policies and how to communicate policy options effectively for individuals to make informed decisions. Restoration ecology can follow the recent shift of medicine away from imperatives and toward informed patient choice. Restoration projects may benefit from recent advances in psychology and communication that help individuals make policy decisions that align with their personal values.     

The Importance of the Human Footprint in Shaping the Global Distribution of Terrestrial,Freshwater and Marine Invaders

Human activities such as transport, trade and tourism are likely to influence the spatial distribution of non-native species and yet, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) that aim to predict the future broad scale distribution of invaders often rely on environmental (e.g. climatic) information only. This study investigates if and to what extent do human activities that directly or indirectly influence nature (hereafter the human footprint) affect the global distribution of invasive species in terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. We selected 72 species including terrestrial plants, terrestrial animals, freshwater and marine invasive species of concern in a focus area located in NW Europe (encompassing Great Britain, France, The Netherlands and Belgium). Species Distribution Models were calibrated with the global occurrence of species and a set of high-resolution (9×9 km) environmental (e.g. topography, climate, geology) layers and human footprint proxies (e.g. the human influence index, population density, road proximity). Our analyses suggest that the global occurrence of a wide range of invaders is primarily limited by climate. Temperature tolerance was the most important factor and explained on average 42% of species distribution. Nevertheless, factors related to the human footprint explained a substantial amount (23% on average) of species distributions. When global models were projected into the focus area, spatial predictions integrating the human footprint featured the highest cumulative risk scores close to transport networks (proxy for invasion pathways) and in habitats with a high human influence index (proxy for propagule pressure). We conclude that human related information–currently available in the form of easily accessible maps and databases—should be routinely implemented into predictive frameworks to inform upon policies to prevent and manage invasions. Otherwise we might be seriously underestimating the species and areas under highest risk of future invasions.     

Precaution,threshold risk and public deliberation

It has been argued that the precautionary principle is incoherent and thus useless as a guide for regulatory policy. In a recent paper in Bioethics, Wareham and Nardini propose a response to the ‘precautionary paradox’ according to which the precautionary principle's usefulness for decision making in policy and regulation contexts can be justified by appeal to a probability threshold discriminating between negligible and non‐negligible risks. It would be of great significance to debates about risk and precaution if there were a sound method for determining a minimum probability threshold of negligible risk. This is what Wareham and Nardini aim to do. The novelty of their approach is that they suggest that such a threshold should be determined by a method of public deliberation. In this article I discuss the merits of Wareham and Nardini’s public deliberation method for determining thresholds. I raise an epistemic worry about the public deliberation method they suggest, and argue that their proposal is inadequate due to a hidden assumption that the acceptability of a risk can be completely analysed in terms of its probability.     

Technocratic precautionary principle: Korean risk governance of genetically modified organisms

Regulations for genetically modified organisms (GMOs) in Korea fluctuate between technocracy and the precautionary principle (PP). Technocratic PP denotes the coexistence, or coproduction, of technocracy with PP – a complex ensemble of technocratic, precautionary policies, and hybrids of the two. This paper analyzes four types of PP-based policies linked to Korean GMO regulations: foresight and monitoring of risk; reverse burden of proof; public participation; and the public's right to know. Korean GMO regulations are consistent with the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, a type of PP, but lack long-term risk assessment as well as public participation. Technocracy is embedded both in advance informed agreements as a reverse burden of proof and in proof-based GMO labeling as a right-to-know policy. Technocratic PP results in inconsistencies between PP and technocratic epistemology and the gap between PP-based institutions and technocratic practices. Technocratic PP is therefore a typical phenomenon that occurs in the “glocalization” of risk regulation.     

Inclusion and human rights in health policies: comparative and benchmarking analysis of 51 policies from Malawi, Sudan, South Africa and Namibia

While many health services strive to be equitable, accessible and inclusive, peoples' right to health often goes unrealized, particularly among vulnerable groups. The extent to which health policies explicitly seek to achieve such goals sets the policy context in which services are delivered and evaluated. An analytical framework was developed--EquiFrame--to evaluate 1) the extent to which 21 Core Concepts of human rights were addressed in policy documents, and 2) coverage of 12 Vulnerable Groups who might benefit from such policies. Using this framework, analysis of 51 policies across Malawi, Namibia, South Africa and Sudan, confirmed the relevance of all Core Concepts and Vulnerable Groups. Further, our analysis highlighted some very strong policies, serious shortcomings in others as well as country-specific patterns. If social inclusion and human rights do not underpin policy formation, it is unlikely they will be inculcated in service delivery. EquiFrame facilitates policy analysis and benchmarking, and provides a means for evaluating policy revision and development.