Invasion of an intermediate predator: the dynamics of fish populations in the mathematical model of a trophic chain (as applied to the Syamozero lake)

We present a mathematical model of the dynamics of a spatially heterogeneous predator-prey population system. A prototype of the model system is the Syamozero lake fish community. We study the impact of the invader, an intermediate predator, on the dynamics of the fish community. We show that the invasion can lead to the appearance of chaotic oscillations in the population density. We show also that different dynamical regimes resulting from the invasion, i.e., stationary, non-chaotic oscillatory and chaotic ones, can coexist. The "choice" of a specific regime therewith depends on the initial invader density. Our analysis of solutions of the mathematical models shows that the successful invasion of the alien species takes place solely in the absence of the competition between the invaders and the native species.     

Evolution of rotifer population dynamics in a heterogeneous habitat: mathematical modeling

We present the results of mathematical modeling of a rotifer species inhabiting two coupled habitats with different environmental conditions. We use the modified Consensus model and show that the exchange between the habitats can lead to chaotization of originally regular plankton dynamics and synchronization of plankton biomass oscillations. As a result, the invasion of a chaotic regime takes place.     

Spatiotemporal complexity of patchy invasion in a predator-prey system with the Allee effect

Invasion of an exotic species initiated by its local introduction is considered subject to predator-prey interactions and the Allee effect when the prey growth becomes negative for small values of the prey density. Mathematically, the system dynamics is described by two nonlinear diffusion-reaction equations in two spatial dimensions. Regimes of invasion are studied by means of extensive numerical simulations. We show that, in this system, along with well-known scenarios of species spread via propagation of continuous population fronts, there exists an essentially different invasion regime which we call a patchy invasion. In this regime, the species spreads over space via irregular motion and interaction of separate population patches without formation of any continuous front, the population density between the patches being nearly zero. We show that this type of the system dynamics corresponds to spatiotemporal chaos and calculate the dominant Lyapunov exponent. We then show that, surprisingly, in the regime of patchy invasion the spatially average prey density appears to be below the survival threshold. We also show that a variation of parameters can destroy this regime and either restore the usual invasion scenario via propagation of continuous fronts or brings the species to extinction; thus, the patchy spread can be qualified as the invasion at the edge of extinction. Finally, we discuss the implications of this phenomenon for invasive species management and control.     

Rotifer Population Dynamics in Two Coupled Habitats: Invasion of Chaos

We study the role of interactions between habitats in rotifer dynamics. We use a simple discrete-time model to simulate the interactions between neighboring habitats with different intrinsic dynamics. Being uncoupled, one habitat shows periodical oscillations of the rotifer biomass while the other one demonstrates chaotic oscillations. As a result of the exchange of rotifer biomass, chaos replaces regular oscillations. As a result, the rotifer dynamics becomes chaotic in both habitats. We show that the invasion of chaos is followed by the synchronization of the chaotic regimes of both habitats, and this synchronization increases as coupling between the habitats is increased. We also demonstrate that the biological invasion of the rotifer species, which show chaotic dynamics, to a neighboring habitat with intrinsically regular plankton dynamics leads to the invasion of chaos and the synchronization of chaotic oscillations of the plankton biomass in both the habitats.     

Bifurcations and chaos in a predator-prey system with the Allee effect

It is known from many theoretical studies that ecological chaos may have numerous significant impacts on the population and community dynamics. Therefore, identification of the factors potentially enhancing or suppressing chaos is a challenging problem. In this paper, we show that chaos can be enhanced by the Allee effect. More specifically, we show by means of computer simulations that in a time-continuous predator-prey system with the Allee effect the temporal population oscillations can become chaotic even when the spatial distribution of the species remains regular. By contrast, in a similar system without the Allee effect, regular species distribution corresponds to periodic/quasi-periodic oscillations. We investigate the routes to chaos and show that in the spatially regular predator-prey system with the Allee effect, chaos appears as a result of series of period-doubling bifurcations. We also show that this system exhibits period-locking behaviour: a small variation of parameters can lead to alternating regular and chaotic dynamics.     

Dynamics of a plant-herbivore-predator system with plant-toxicity

A system of ordinary differential equations is considered that models the interactions of two plant species populations, an herbivore population, and a predator population. We use a toxin-determined functional response to describe the interactions between plant species and herbivores and use a Holling Type II functional response to model the interactions between herbivores and predators. In order to study how the predators impact the succession of vegetation, we derive invasion conditions under which a plant species can invade into an environment in which another plant species is co-existing with a herbivore population with or without a predator population. These conditions provide threshold quantities for several parameters that may play a key role in the dynamics of the system. Numerical simulations are conducted to reinforce the analytical results. This model can be applied to a boreal ecosystem trophic chain to examine the possible cascading effects of predator-control actions when plant species differ in their levels of toxic defense.     

Dynamics of sexual populations structured by a space variable and a phenotypical trait

We study sexual populations structured by a phenotypic trait and a space variable, in a non-homogeneous environment. Departing from an infinitesimal model, we perform an asymptotic limit to derive the system introduced in Kirkpatrick and Barton (1997). We then perform a further simplification to obtain a simple model. Thanks to this simpler equation, we can describe rigorously the dynamics of the population. In particular, we provide an explicit estimate of the invasion speed, or extinction speed of the species. Numerical computations show that this simple model provides a good approximation of the original infinitesimal model, and in particular describes quite well the evolution of the species’ range.     

A mechanistic model for understanding invasions: using the environment as a predictor of population success

Aim We set out to develop a temperature‐ and salinity‐dependent mechanistic population model for copepods that can be used to understand the role of environmental parameters in population growth or decline. Models are an important tool for understanding the dynamics of invasive species; our model can be used to determine an organism’s niche and explore the potential for invasion of a new habitat. Location Strait of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada. Methods We developed a birth rate model to determine the environmental niche for an estuarine copepod. We conducted laboratory experiments to estimate demographic parameters over a range of temperatures and salinities for Eurytemora affinis collected from the Nanaimo Estuary, British Columbia (BC). The parameterized model was then used to explore what environmental conditions resulted in population growth vs. decline. We then re‐parameterized our model using previously published data for E. affinis collected in the Seine Estuary, France (SE), and compared the dynamics of the two populations. Results We established regions in temperature–salinity space where E. affinis populations from BC would likely grow vs. decline. In general, the population from BC exhibited positive and higher intrinsic growth rates at higher temperatures and salinities. The population from SE exhibited positive and higher growth rates with increasing temperature and decreasing salinity. These different relationships with environmental parameters resulted in predictions of complex interactions among temperature, salinity and growth rates if the two subspecies inhabited the same estuary. Main conclusions We developed a new mechanistic model that describes population dynamics in terms of temperature and salinity. This model may prove especially useful in predicting the potential for invasion by copepods transported to Pacific north‐west estuaries via ballast water, or in any system where an ecosystem is subject to invasion by a species that shares demographic characteristics with an established (sub)species.     

Modelling invasibility in endogenously oscillating tree populations: timing of invasion matters

The timing of introduction of a new species into an ecosystem can be critical in determining the invasibility (i.e. the sensitivity to invasion) of a resident population. Here, we use an individual-based model to test how (1) the type of competition (symmetric versus asymmetric) and (2) seed masting influence the success of invasion by producing oscillatory dynamics in resident tree populations. We focus on a case where two species (one resident, one invader introduced at low density) do not differ in terms of competitive abilities. By varying the time of introduction of the invader, we show that oscillations in the resident population favour invasion, by creating “invasibility windows” during which resource is available for the invader due to transiently depressed resident population density. We discuss this result in the context of current knowledge on forest dynamics and invasions, emphasizing the importance of variability in population dynamics.     

Coexistence of two types on a single resource in discrete time

Armstrong and McGehee (1980) have shown that two species modeled in continuous time can coexist on a single resource provided that one species oscillates autonomously. This paper demonstrates the parallel result in discrete time. I consider a deterministic model of two asexual types in a single patch competing for a single resource, and show that such systems generically produce oscillatory coexistence or bistability if one of the types displays periodic or chaotic behavior in isolation. The conditions for coexistence or bistability are derived in terms of the convexity of the functions describing fitness as a function of resource availability. I also analyze whether or not a stable type, a type with a stable equilibrium population size when considered in isolation, can invade a periodic orbit of an unstable type, and show that the same convexity condition distinguishes these two cases. The widely considered exponential or Ricker model for population dynamics lies on the boundary between the two cases and is highly degenerate in this context.     

Mathematical model of invasion of mysids (Mysidacea) into the Naroch Lake system

We present a mathematical model of the invasion of mysid into the Naroch Lake system. The model is parameterized with the use of field observation data. We show that the mysid invasion can lead to an increase in the time-averaged fish population size, and to a decrease in the time-averaged rotifer population size.     

A mathematical model of the invasion of mysid (Mysidacea) into Narochan Lakes

We present a mathematical model of the invasion of mysid into the Narochan Lakes system. The model is parameterized with the use of field observation data. We show that the mysid invasion can lead to an increase in the time-averaged fish population size, and to a decrease in the time-averaged rotifer population size.     

Invasion dynamics of epidemic with the Allee effect

Investigating the likely success of epidemic invasion is important in the epidemic management and control. In the present study, the invasion of epidemic is initially introduced to a predator-prey system, both species of which are considered to be subject to the Allee effect. Mathematically, the invasion dynamics is described by three nonlinear diffusion-reaction equations and the spatial implicit and explicit models are designed. By means of extensive numerical simulations, the results of spatial implicit model show that the Allee effect has an opposite impact on the invasion criteria and local dynamics when that on the different species. As the intensity of the Allee effect increases, the domain of epidemic invasion reduces and the system dynamics is changed from the stable state to the limit cycle and finally becomes the chaotic state when the susceptible prey with the Allee effect, but the domain expands and the system dynamics is changed from limit cycle to a table point when the predator is subject to the Allee effect. Results from the spatial explicit model show that the strong intensity of the Allee effect can lead to the catastrophic global extinction of all species in the case of that on the susceptible prey. While the predator with the Allee effect, the increased intensity of which makes spatial species reach a stable state. Furthermore, numerical simulations reveal a certain relationship between the invasion speed and spatial patterns.     

An exactly solvable model of population dynamics with density-dependent migrations and the Allee effect

We consider a single-species model of population dynamics allowing for migrations and the Allee effect. Two types of migration are taken into account: one caused by environmental factors (e.g., a passive transport with the wind or water current) and the other associated with biological mechanisms. While the first type is apparently density-independent, the speed of migration in the second one can depend on the population density. Mathematically, this model consists of a non-linear partial differential equation of advection-diffusion-reaction type. Using an appropriate change of variables, we obtain an exact solution of the equation describing propagation of travelling population fronts. We show that, depending on parameter values and thus on the relative intensity of density-dependent and density-independent factors, the direction of the propagation can be different thus describing either species invasion or species retreat.     

Advantage of storage in a fluctuating environment

We will elaborate the evolutionary course of an ecosystem consisting of a population in a chemostat environment with periodically fluctuating nutrient supply. The organisms that make up the population consist of structural biomass and energy storage compartments. In a constant chemostat environment a species without energy storage always out-competes a species with energy reserves. This hinders evolution of species with storage from those without storage. Using the adaptive dynamics approach for non-equilibrium ecological systems we will show that in a fluctuating environment there are multiple stable evolutionary singular strategies (ss's): one for a species without, and one for a species with energy storage. The evolutionary end-point depends on the initial evolutionary state. We will formulate the invasion fitness in terms of Floquet multipliers for the oscillating non-autonomous system. Bifurcation theory is used to study points where due to evolutionary development by mutational steps, the long-term dynamics of the ecological system changes qualitatively. To that end, at the ecological time scale, the trait value at which invasion of a mutant into a resident population becomes possible can be calculated using numerical bifurcation analysis where the trait is used as the free parameter, because it is just a bifurcation point. In a constant environment there is a unique stable equilibrium for one species following the "competitive exclusion" principle. In contrast, due to the oscillatory dynamics on the ecological time scale two species may coexist. That is, non-equilibrium dynamics enhances biodiversity. However, we will show that this coexistence is not stable on the evolutionary time scale and always one single species survives.     

Advantage of storage in a fluctuating environment

We will elaborate the evolutionary course of an ecosystem consisting of a population in a chemostat environment with periodically fluctuating nutrient supply. The organisms that make up the population consist of structural biomass and energy storage compartments. In a constant chemostat environment a species without energy storage always out-competes a species with energy reserves. This hinders evolution of species with storage from those without storage. Using the adaptive dynamics approach for non-equilibrium ecological systems we will show that in a fluctuating environment there are multiple stable evolutionary singular strategies (ss's): one for a species without, and one for a species with energy storage. The evolutionary end-point depends on the initial evolutionary state. We will formulate the invasion fitness in terms of Floquet multipliers for the oscillating non-autonomous system. Bifurcation theory is used to study points where due to evolutionary development by mutational steps, the long-term dynamics of the ecological system changes qualitatively. To that end, at the ecological time scale, the trait value at which invasion of a mutant into a resident population becomes possible can be calculated using numerical bifurcation analysis where the trait is used as the free parameter, because it is just a bifurcation point. In a constant environment there is a unique stable equilibrium for one species following the “competitive exclusion” principle. In contrast, due to the oscillatory dynamics on the ecological time scale two species may coexist. That is, non-equilibrium dynamics enhances biodiversity. However, we will show that this coexistence is not stable on the evolutionary time scale and always one single species survives.     

Patterns of Patchy Spread in Deterministic and Stochastic Models of Biological Invasion and Biological Control

A few spatiotemporal models of population dynamics are considered in relation to biological invasion and biological control. The patterns of spread in one and two spatial dimensions are studied by means of extensive numerical simulations. We show that, in the case that population multiplication is damped by the strong Allee effect (when the population growth rate becomes negative for small population density), in a certain parameter range the spread can take place not via the intuitively expected circular expanding population front but via motion and interaction of separate patches. Alternatively, the patchy spread can take place in a system without Allee effect as a result of strong environmental noise. We then show that the phenomenon of deterministic patchy invasion takes place ‘at the edge of extinction’ so that a small change of controlling parameters either brings the species to extinction or restores the travelling population fronts. Moreover, we show that the regime of patchy invasion in two spatial dimensions actually takes place when the species go extinct in the corresponding 1-D system.     

Invasion under a trade-off between density dependence and maximum growth rate

The invasion of alien species and genotypes is an increasing concern in contemporary ecology. A central question is, what life-history traits enable invasion amidst populations of wild species and conventional cultivars? In order to invade, the initially rare species must perform better than their resident competitors. We conducted a mathematical analysis and simulation of a two-species extension of the Maynard Smith and Slatkin model for population dynamics in discrete time to study the role of density dependence as different types of competition in the invasion of new species. The type of density dependence ranged from scramble to contest competition. This led to intrinsic dynamics of the species range from point equilibrium to cycles and chaos. The traits were treated either as free parameters or constrained by a trade-off resulting from a common fixed strength of density dependence or equilibrium density. Resident and intruder traits had up to ten-fold differences in all of the parameters investigated. Higher equilibrium density of the intruder allowed invasion. Under constrained equilibrium density, an intrinsically stable intruder could invade an unstable resident population. Scramble competition made a population more susceptible to invasion than contest competition (e.g., limitation by light or territory availability). This predicts that a population which is mainly limited by food (or nutrients in plants) is more likely to be invaded than a population limited by a hierarchical competition, such as light among plants. The intruder population may have an effect on the resident population's dynamics, which makes the traditional invasion analysis unable to predict invasion outcome.     

利用元胞自动机研究一类捕食食饵模型中的斑块扩散现象

利用概率元胞自动机模型对空间隐式的、食饵具Allee效应的一类捕食食饵模型进行模拟,发现随着相关参数的变化,种群的空间扩散前沿由连续的扩散波逐渐转变为一种相互隔离的斑块向外扩散,这种斑块扩散现象与以往的扩散模式有所不同。研究结果表明：(1)在斑块扩散的情况下,相关参数的微小变化会导致种群灭绝或者形成连续的扩散波,即斑块扩散发生在种群趋于灭绝和连续扩散之间;(2)当种群的空间扩散方式为斑块扩散时,种群的扩散速度会变慢,与其他扩散方式下的速度有着明显的区别。该研究结果对生物入侵控制和外来物种监测有重要的启发和指导作用。     

Chaos in a periodically forced chemostat with algal mortality

We study the possibility of chaotic dynamics in the externally driven Droop model. This model describes a phytoplankton population in a chemostat under periodic nutrient supply. Previously, it has been proven under very general assumptions, that such systems are not able to exhibit chaotic dynamics. We show that the simple introduction of algal mortality may lead to chaotic oscillations of algal density in the forced chemostat. Our numerical simulations show that the existence of chaos is intimately related to plankton overshooting in the unforced model. We provide a simple measure, based on stability analysis, for estimating the amount of overshooting. These findings are not restricted to the Droop model but also hold for other chemostat models with mortality. Our results suggest periodically driven chemostats as a simple model system for the experimental verification of chaos in ecology.