Size,longevity and cancer: age structure

There is significant recent interest in Peto''s paradox and the related problem of the evolution of large, long-lived organisms in terms of cancer robustness. Peto''s paradox refers to the expectation that large, long-lived organisms have a higher lifetime cancer risk, which is not the case: a paradox. This paradox, however, is circular: large, long-lived organisms are large and long-lived because they are cancer robust. Lifetime risk, meanwhile, depends on the age distributions of both cancer and competing risks: if cancer strikes before competing risks, then lifetime risk is high; if not, not. Because no set of competing risks is generally prevalent, it is instructive to temporarily dispose of competing risks and investigate the pure age dynamics of cancer under the multistage model of carcinogenesis. In addition to augmenting earlier results, I show that in terms of cancer-free lifespan large organisms reap greater benefits from an increase in cellular cancer robustness than smaller organisms. Conversely, a higher cellular cancer robustness renders cancer-free lifespan more resilient to an increase in size. This interaction may be an important driver of the evolution of large, cancer-robust organisms.     

Inclusive fitness effects can select for cancer suppression into old age

Natural selection can favour health at youth or middle age (high reproductive value) over health at old age (low reproductive value). This means, all else being equal, selection for cancer suppression should dramatically drop after reproductive age. However, in species with significant parental investment, the capacity to enhance inclusive fitness may increase the reproductive value of older individuals or even those past reproductive age. Variation in parental investment levels could therefore contribute to variation in cancer susceptibility across species. In this article, we describe a simple model and framework for the evolution of cancer suppression with varying levels of parental investment and use this model to make testable predictions about variation in cancer suppression across species. This model can be extended to show that selection for cancer suppression is stronger in species with cooperative breeding systems and intergenerational transfers. We consider three cases that can select for cancer suppression into old age: (i) extended parental care that increases the survivorship of their offspring, (ii) grandparents contributing to higher fecundity of their children and (iii) cooperative breeding where helpers forgo reproduction or even survivorship to assist parents in having higher fecundity.     

Determining cancer risk: the evolutionary multistage model or total stem cell divisions?

A recent hypothesis proposed that the total number of stem cell divisions in a tissue (TSCD model) determine its intrinsic cancer risk; however, a different model—the multistage model—has long been used to understand how cancer originates. Identifying the correct model has important implications for interpreting the frequency of cancers. Using worldwide cancer incidence data, we applied three tests to the TSCD model and an evolutionary multistage model of carcinogenesis (EMMC), a model in which cancer suppression is recognized as an evolving trait, with natural selection acting to suppress cancers causing a significant mean loss of Darwinian fitness. Each test supported the EMMC but contradicted the TSCD model. This outcome undermines results based on the TSCD model quantifying the relative importance of ‘bad luck'' (the random accumulation of somatic mutations) versus environmental and genetic factors in determining cancer incidence. Our testing supported the EMMC prediction that cancers of large rapidly dividing tissues predominate late in life. Another important prediction is that an indicator of recent oncogenic environmental change is an unusually high mean fitness loss due to cancer, rather than a high lifetime incidence. The evolutionary model also predicts that large and/or long-lived animals have evolved mechanisms of cancer suppression that may be of value in preventing or controlling human cancers.     

The multiple facets of Peto's paradox: a life-history model for the evolution of cancer suppression

Large animals should have higher lifetime probabilities of cancer than small animals because each cell division carries an attendant risk of mutating towards a tumour lineage. However, this is not observed—a (Peto''s) paradox that suggests large and/or long-lived species have evolved effective cancer suppression mechanisms. Using the Euler–Lotka population model, we demonstrate the evolutionary value of cancer suppression as determined by the ‘cost’ (decreased fecundity) of suppression verses the ‘cost’ of cancer (reduced survivorship). Body size per se will not select for sufficient cancer suppression to explain the paradox. Rather, cancer suppression should be most extreme when the probability of non-cancer death decreases with age (e.g. alligators), maturation is delayed, fecundity rates are low and fecundity increases with age. Thus, the value of cancer suppression is predicted to be lowest in the vole (short lifespan, high fecundity) and highest in the naked mole rat (long lived with late female sexual maturity). The life history of pre-industrial humans likely selected for quite low levels of cancer suppression. In modern humans that live much longer, this level results in unusually high lifetime cancer risks. The model predicts a lifetime risk of 49% compared with the current empirical value of 43%.     

Peto's paradox and human cancers

Peto''s paradox is the lack of the expected trend in cancer incidence as a function of body size and lifespan across species. The leading hypothesis to explain this pattern is natural selection for differential cancer prevention in larger, longer lived species. We evaluate whether a similar effect exists within species, specifically humans. We begin by reanalysing a recently published dataset to separate the effects of stem cell number and replication rate, and show that each has an independent effect on cancer risk. When considering the lifetime number of stem cell divisions in an extended dataset, and removing cases associated with other diseases or carcinogens, we find that lifetime cancer risk per tissue saturates at approximately 0.3–1.3% for the types considered. We further demonstrate that grouping by anatomical site explains most of the remaining variation. Our results indicate that cancer risk depends not only on the number of stem cell divisions but varies enormously (approx. 10 000 times) depending on anatomical site. We conclude that variation in risk of human cancer types is analogous to the paradoxical lack of variation in cancer incidence among animal species and may likewise be understood as a result of evolution by natural selection.     

A multispecies BCO2 beak color polymorphism in the Darwin’s finch radiation

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Multiple responses to increasing spring temperatures in the breeding cycle of blue and great tits (Cyanistes caeruleus,Parus major)

Many bird species start laying their eggs earlier in response to increasing spring temperatures, but the causes of variation between and within species have not been fully explained. Moreover, synchronization of the nestling period with the food supply not only depends on first‐egg dates but also on additional reproductive parameters including laying interruptions, incubation time and nestling growth rate. We studied the breeding cycle of two sympatric and closely related species, the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus and the great tit Parus major in a rich oak‐beech forest, and found that both advanced their mean first‐egg dates by 11–12 days over the last three decades. In addition, the time from first egg to fledging has shortened by 2–3 days, through a decrease in laying interruptions, incubation time (not statistically significant) and nestling development time. This decrease is correlated with a gradual increase of temperatures during laying, suggesting a major effect of the reduction in laying interruptions. In both species, the occurrence of second clutches has strongly decreased over time. As a consequence, the average time of fledging (all broods combined) has advanced by 15.4 and 18.6 days for blue and great tits, respectively, and variance in fledging dates has decreased by 70–75%. Indirect estimates of the food peak suggest that both species have maintained synchronization with the food supply. We found consistent selection for large clutch size, early laying and short nest time (laying to fledging), but no consistent changes in selection over time. Analyses of within‐individual variation show that most of the change can be explained by individual plasticity in laying date, fledging date and nest time. This study highlights the importance of studying all components of the reproductive cycle, including second clutches, in order to assess how natural populations respond to climate change.     

Begging and the risk of predation in nestling birds

Theoretical models of the evolution of begging in nestling passerinesassume that begging is costly, either energetically or in termsof predation. However, few empirical measures of these costsexist. We examined whether nestling begging calls could attractpredators to nests by comparing predation rates at artificialnests with and without playbacks of tree swallow begging calls.Nests were baited with quail eggs and placed in pairs on theground or in modified nest-boxes. Nests with playbacks of beggingcalls were depredated before control nests significantly moreoften in both the ground and nest-box trials, suggesting thatpredators may use begging calls to locate nests. These resultssuggest that the risk of nest predation may be increased becauseof calling by nestlings and provide further support for theassumption that conspicuous begging is costly in terms of predation     

栗头鹟莺繁殖生态的初步观察

鹟莺属(Seicercus)鸟类的繁殖资料十分缺乏。2015年4~8月,采用录像全程监控的方法,在贵州宽阔水国家级自然保护区,对4巢栗头鹟莺(S.castaniceps)的繁殖过程进行了完整观察。栗头鹟莺的繁殖期主要集中在5~7月,巢址选择专一性较强,均筑巢于公路边的土坎内壁,距路(1.3±1.2)m,巢为球状侧开口,巢材主要为新鲜苔藓及细草根,巢高(2.2±0.6)m,巢宽(10.9±1.5)cm,杯宽(3.3±0.5)cm,巢深(9.5±1.9)cm,杯深(5.5±1.0)cm。窝卵数(4.5±0.6)枚(4~5枚),卵重(0.92±0.04)g,卵长(14.30±0.30)mm,卵宽(11.22±0.23)mm,卵体积(0.92±0.05)mm3(n=18)。亲鸟在产满窝卵后开始孵卵,孵卵期12~13 d,在孵卵中期(第5~9天)亲鸟的孵卵时间开始增加,翻卵次数增多,在孵卵后期(第10~13天)亲鸟的孵卵时间和翻卵次数基本保持不变。育雏期13~14 d。雌、雄共同育雏,雏鸟在3日龄时,体重和跗跖开始显著增长,在7日龄时,增长速度变缓。孵化率为88.9%(16/18),营巢成效为100%,出飞成效为3.3只/巢。     

Phylogenetic analysis of life-history adaptations in parasitic cowbirds

Parasitic cowbirds lay eggs in the nests of other species anddupe them into caring for their young. Unlike other brood parasites,cowbirds have not developed egg mimicry or bizarre chick morphology.However, most of them parasitize a large number of hosts. Severalfeatures of cowbirds have been proposed as more general adaptationsto brood parasitism. In this study, we used a recent molecularphylogeny as a historical framework to test the possible adaptationsof the parasitic cowbird, including egg size, eggshell thicknessand energy content of the eggs, length of the incubation period,and growth pattern of cowbird nestlings. We used a recentlydeveloped extension of independent contrasts to test whetherthe five cowbird species deviate from general allometric equations.We generated prediction intervals for a nonparasite that evolvedin the place of the cowbirds. By using these prediction intervals,we found that parasitic cowbirds had not reduced weight or energycontent of their eggs, nor their incubation period over evolutionarytime. Cowbird chicks and those of nonparasitic relatives hadsimilar growth pattern. The only characteristic that separatedparasitic cowbirds from their nonparasitic relatives was anincrease in eggshell thickness. All these findings were robustand resisted the use of three models of character evolution.The fact that most traits exhibited by cowbirds were inheritedfrom a nonparasitic ancestor does not rule out that they areadvantageous for parasitism. Future research should focus onsuch traits of cowbird relatives and on how these traits preadapteda particular lineage to become parasites.