Long-term differences in extinction risk among the seven forms of rarity

Rarity is widely used to predict the vulnerability of species to extinction. Species can be rare in markedly different ways, but the relative impacts of these different forms of rarity on extinction risk are poorly known and cannot be determined through observations of species that are not yet extinct. The fossil record provides a valuable archive with which we can directly determine which aspects of rarity lead to the greatest risk. Previous palaeontological analyses confirm that rarity is associated with extinction risk, but the relative contributions of different types of rarity to extinction risk remain unknown because their impacts have never been examined simultaneously. Here, we analyse a global database of fossil marine animals spanning the past 500 million years, examining differential extinction with respect to multiple rarity types within each geological stage. We observe systematic differences in extinction risk over time among marine genera classified according to their rarity. Geographic range played a primary role in determining extinction, and habitat breadth a secondary role, whereas local abundance had little effect. These results suggest that current reductions in geographic range size will lead to pronounced increases in long-term extinction risk even if local populations are relatively large at present.     

Rarity value and species extinction: the anthropogenic Allee effect

Standard economic theory predicts that exploitation alone is unlikely to result in species extinction because of the escalating costs of finding the last individuals of a declining species. We argue that the human predisposition to place exaggerated value on rarity fuels disproportionate exploitation of rare species, rendering them even rarer and thus more desirable, ultimately leading them into an extinction vortex. Here we present a simple mathematical model and various empirical examples to show how the value attributed to rarity in some human activities could precipitate the extinction of rare species—a concept that we term the anthropogenic Allee effect. The alarming finding that human perception of rarity can precipitate species extinction has serious implications for the conservation of species that are rare or that may become so, be they charismatic and emblematic or simply likely to become fashionable for certain activities.     

Range-size,local abundance and germination niche-breadth in Mediterranean plants of two life-forms

The relationships between rarity (i.e., range-size, local abundance) and niche-breadth can be important to assess the risks the species face under global change, namely those resulting from fire regime change. In fire areas, germination is critical for establishing after fire for many species. We examined the relationships between rarity and germination niche-breadth for 53 plant species of two life-forms (chamaephytes and hemicryptophytes) growing in Eastern Spain. Rarity was measured as geographic range-size and as local abundance. Local abundance was evaluated at two sites differing in their post-fire successional status (a recently burned area and a long-unburned one). Germination niche-breadth was measured as the mean germination evenness index from four germination experiments that subjected the seeds to various germinating conditions characteristics of fire environments. Correlations between rarity (range-size, local abundance) and niche-breadth were calculated in cross-species mode or by way of phylogenetically independent contrasts, and either for the 53 species (all-species set) or for each of two life-form groups (chamaephytes, hemicryptophytes). In general, no significant correlations were found between the rarity measures and germination niche-breadth for the all-species set. However, significant correlations emerged when the analyses were done separating species by life-forms. Germination niche-breadth was positively correlated with range-size for chamaephytes, and negatively for hemicryptophytes. In addition, germination niche-breadth was uncorrelated, or negatively so, with local abundance for chamaephytes and hemicryptophytes, respectively. While no correlation between range-size and local abundance was found for chamaephytes, a negative one was obtained for hemicryptophytes. We conclude that rarity/germination-niche relationships varied by life-form. This pattern of relationships was obscured when all species were joined in a single group. Based on the contrasting patterns of correlations obtained for each life-form we argue that the changes in the germinating environment caused by alterations in fire regime are likely to differentially affect these two groups of species.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Human Population Density and Extinction Risk in the World's Carnivores

Understanding why some species are at high risk of extinction, while others remain relatively safe, is central to the development of a predictive conservation science. Recent studies have shown that a species' extinction risk may be determined by two types of factors: intrinsic biological traits and exposure to external anthropogenic threats. However, little is known about the relative and interacting effects of intrinsic and external variables on extinction risk. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that extinction risk in the mammal order Carnivora is predicted more strongly by biology than exposure to high-density human populations. However, biology interacts with human population density to determine extinction risk: biological traits explain 80% of variation in risk for carnivore species with high levels of exposure to human populations, compared to 45% for carnivores generally. The results suggest that biology will become a more critical determinant of risk as human populations expand. We demonstrate how a model predicting extinction risk from biology can be combined with projected human population density to identify species likely to move most rapidly towards extinction by the year 2030. African viverrid species are particularly likely to become threatened, even though most are currently considered relatively safe. We suggest that a preemptive approach to species conservation is needed to identify and protect species that may not be threatened at present but may become so in the near future.     

Geographic discrepancies between global and local rarity richness patterns and the implications for conservation

The emerging interest in the biological and conservation significance of locally rare species prompts a number of questions about their correspondence with other categories of biodiversity, especially global rarity. Here we present an analysis of the correspondence between the distributions of globally and locally rare plants. Using biological hotspots of rarity as our framework, we evaluate the extent to which conservation of globally rare plants will act as a surrogate for conservation of locally rare taxa. Subsequently, we aim to identify gaps between rarity hotspots and protected land to guide conservation planning. We compiled distribution data for globally and locally rare plants from botanically diverse Napa County, California into a geographic information system. We then generated richness maps highlighting hotspots of global and local rarity. Following this, we overlaid the distribution of these hotspots with the distribution of protected lands to identify conservation gaps. Based on occupancy of 1 km² grid cells, we found that over half of Napa County is occupied by at least one globally or locally rare plant. Hotspots of global and local rarity occurred in a substantially smaller portion of the county. Of these hotspots, less than 5% were classified as multi-scale hotspots, i.e. they were hotspots of global and local rarity. Although, several hotspots corresponded with the 483 km² of protected lands in Napa County, some of the richest areas did not. Thus, our results show that there are important conservation gaps in Napa County. Furthermore, if only hotspots of global rarity are preserved, only a subset of locally rare plants will be protected. Therefore, conservation of global, local, and multi-scale hotspots needs serious consideration if the goals are to protect a larger variety of biological attributes, prevent extinction, and limit extirpation in Napa County.     

A multidimensional characterization of rarity applied to the Aegean tenebrionid beetles (Coleoptera Tenebrionidae)

This paper attempts to use museum collection data to estimate measures of species rarity and then to relate these measures to extinction risk. For this purpose, 170 taxa (138 species and 32 subspecies) of tenebrionid beetles from 32 Aegean Islands (Greece) were considered. For each taxon, rarity was evaluated as geographic distribution (mean incidence on islands in the archipelago), potential habitat exploitation (total area of the islands occupied on the total area of the study system) and contactability (number of decades of taxon’s records on the total number of decades of assumed persistence from 1870 to 2000). All of these indices were correlated to each other. Whether expressed in terms of range size or habitat exploitation rarity was a major determinant of a species’ risk of extinction (evaluated as extinction decade). Thus, the designation of rarity provides a good basis for identifying species that are most in need of conservation at a particular scale.     

Frugivorous butterfly species in tropical forest fragments: correlates of vulnerability to extinction

Insects exhibit a variety of population-level responses to forest fragmentation, ranging from population increase to extinction. However, the biological attributes that underlie differences in extinction vulnerability among insects have been little-studied. Using the frugivorous butterfly community of tropical dry forest in Venezuela, we studied body size, population density and colonization ability as attributes that might underlie the range of responses of insects to forest fragmentation. The study was carried out in a set of forest fragments in the reservoir Lago Guri, formed by the damming of the Caroni River in eastern Venezuela. Results show that larger butterfly species were more vulnerable to extinction from habitat fragments than smaller ones. Rarer species were not more vulnerable to extinction, showing that rarity may not be an important correlate of vulnerability to extinction amongst insects. Contrary to expectation, faster-flying species were more and not less vulnerable to extinction from small habitat fragments. We speculate on the possible reasons for the observed patterns in extinction vulnerability using additional observations on behavioural patterns and larval host plant distributions of some of the butterfly species.     

Some of the rarest European saproxylic beetles are common in the wilderness of Northern Mongolia

Natural landscapes characterized by heavy disturbance regimes were displaced in Europe by managed cultural landscapes over the past centuries. The associated loss of biological legacies, such as dead or dying trees, has exposed numerous saproxylic species to high risks of extinction. In contrast, extensive wilderness forests in Northern Mongolia have been sustained owing to significant cultural differences. Here we used saproxylic beetle abundance data gathered during two sampling campaigns in the Mongolian taiga to address whether (1) the saproxylic beetle fauna of the Mongolian taiga is comparable to that of European boreal forests, (2) fires are a natural disturbance regime, indicated by the occurrence of many pyrophilous species, and (3) species rare in Europe are also rare in the Northern Mongolian wilderness. Of 191 saproxylic beetle species identified, 150 (79 %) were also found in Europe. The high number of pyrophilous beetle species (20) indicated that natural species communities are well adapted to this disturbance regime. The species rarity in Germany was significantly positively correlated with the species rarity in Finland, but the species rarity in these two countries was negatively correlated with that in the Mongolian wilderness. Our results indicated that wilderness areas with natural disturbances provide biological legacies important for rare species. Therefore, exploitation of the unique, remaining natural landscapes of the Palaearctic wilderness areas should be stopped. Moreover, we urge conservationists to expand controlled burning for restoration at relict sites of rare boreal species also outside Fennoscandia.     

Where the rare species are

Prioritizing geographic areas for conservation attention is important – time and money are in short supply but endangered species are not – and difficult. One popular perspective highlights areas with many species found nowhere else ( Myers et al. 2000 ). Another identifies areas that contain species with fewer close relatives elsewhere ( Faith 1992 ). One might characterize the first as focusing on geographic, and the second on phylogenetic, rarity. To the extent that geographically rare species are at greater risk of extinction ( Gaston & Fuller 2009 ), and that phylogenetically rare species contribute disproportionally to overall biodiversity ( Crozier 1997 ), it would seem reasonable to formally integrate the two approaches. In this issue, Rosauer et al. (2009) do just that; their elegant combined metric pinpoints areas missed out when the two types of rarity are looked at in isolation.     

Diversity–productivity relationships in two ecologically realistic rarity–extinction scenarios

To develop a better understanding of how biodiversity loss and productivity are related, we need to consider ecologically realistic rarity (i.e. reduced evenness and increased dominance) and extinction (i.e. reduced richness) scenarios. Furthermore, we need to identify and better understand the factors that influence species and community yielding behaviors because the general conditions for overyielding are the same as those for coexistence. We established experimental tallgrass prairie plots in Iowa to determine how two ecologically realistic rarity–extinction scenarios influenced aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and disassembly. Equal‐mass seedlings of six tallgrass prairie species were transplanted into field plots to establish realistic declining species evenness (high, medium, low) and richness (4, 1) treatments. Across declining evenness treatments, the relative abundance of the ubiquitous tall species Andropogon gerardii increased, the relative abundance of the tall species Salvia azurea was constant, and the relative abundance of two short (dissimilar height scenario) or two tall species (tall scenario) decreased. Monocultures of Andropogon represented a continuation of this trend until there was complete dominance by Andropogon and extinction of all other species. Our treatments also allowed us to test if variation in plant height contributes to the complementarity effect. Niche partitioning in plant height was not positively related to complementarity. The effects of declining species evenness and richness on the diversity–productivity relationship were different for these two ecologically realistic rarity–extinction scenarios. Specifically, as diversity declined across treatments, ANPP and the selection effects decreased in tall communities, but not in dissimilar communities. Additionally, differences between these two scenarios revealed that decreased species yielding behavior is associated with two tallgrass prairie extinction risk factors, rarity and short height. The differences between these scenarios demonstrate the importance of incorporating the known patterns of diversity declines into future studies.     

The rarity and overexploitation paradox: stag beetle collections in Japan

For some wildlife commodities, rare species are especially sought after. The tendency for rare commodities to be of higher value can fuel their exploitation and as numbers dwindle, the demand can increase. Consequently, this can precipitate these rare species into an overexploitation vortex where they become increasingly rare, valued and exploited until eventual extinction. We focus here on the hobby of collecting stag beetles, to ascertain if the market value of these items is driven by rarity and if, consequently, these species are vulnerable to this overexploitation vortex. Stag beetle collections fuel a large and lucrative market in Japan, involving more than 700 species from all over the world, with over 15 million specimens imported a year. Some particularly valued species fetch more than US$5,000 a piece. We assessed the importance of species rarity as an acquisition criterion in this market using two methods: an Internet online questionnaire responded to by 509 participants and through examining the quantities imported in Japan and prices paid by collectors. We discovered that species rarity is one of the main choice criteria for acquisition by collectors: rare stag beetles are valued more than the common species and, consequently, stag beetles are vulnerable to the anthropogenic Allee effect in this market. Because of the sheer size of the market and the pervasive nature of this rarity paradox, the attraction to rarity equates to a potential extinction threat for many rare stag beetles species.     

Conservation of reef corals in the South China Sea based on species and evolutionary diversity

The South China Sea in the Central Indo-Pacific is a large semi-enclosed marine region that supports an extraordinary diversity of coral reef organisms (including stony corals), which varies spatially across the region. While one-third of the world’s reef corals are known to face heightened extinction risk from global climate and local impacts, prospects for the coral fauna in the South China Sea region amidst these threats remain poorly understood. In this study, we analyse coral species richness, rarity, and phylogenetic diversity among 16 reef areas in the region to estimate changes in species and evolutionary diversity during projected anthropogenic extinctions. Our results show that richness, rarity, and phylogenetic diversity differ considerably among reef areas in the region, and that their outcomes following projected extinctions cannot be predicted by species diversity alone. Although relative rarity and threat levels are high in species-rich areas such as West Malaysia and the Philippines, areas with fewer species such as northern Vietnam and Paracel Islands stand to lose disproportionately large amounts of phylogenetic diversity. Our study quantifies various biodiversity components of each reef area to inform conservation planners and better direct sparse resources to areas where they are needed most. It also provides a critical biological foundation for targeting reefs that should be included in a regional network of marine protected areas in the South China Sea.     

Parthenogenesis is self-destructive for scaled reptiles

Parthenogenesis is rare in nature. With 39 described true parthenogens, scaled reptiles (Squamata) are the only vertebrates that evolved this reproductive strategy. Parthenogenesis is ecologically advantageous in the short term, but the young age and rarity of parthenogenetic species indicate it is less advantageous in the long term. This suggests parthenogenesis is self-destructive: it arises often but is lost due to increased extinction rates, high rates of reversal or both. However, this role of parthenogenesis as a self-destructive trait remains unknown. We used a phylogeny of Squamata (5388 species), tree metrics, null simulations and macroevolutionary scenarios of trait diversification to address the factors that best explain the rarity of parthenogenetic species. We show that parthenogenesis can be considered as self-destructive, with high extinction rates mainly responsible for its rarity in nature. Since these parthenogenetic species occur, this trait should be ecologically relevant in the short term.     

Size,Rarity and Charisma: Valuing African Wildlife Trophies

We explore variation in the prices paid by recreational hunters of trophy animals in Africa and its possible causes, including perceived rarity. Previous work has raised the possibility that extinction can result if demand rises fast enough as a species becomes rarer. We attempt to disentangle this from other inter-correlated influences affecting price. Species with larger body sizes and larger trophies were more valuable. Value increased less steeply as a function of size for bovids than for felids and the effect was consistent across countries. Power laws, ubiquitous in physical and social systems, described the trends. The exponent was approximately 0.4 for bovids, compared with approximately 1.0 for felids. Rarity (as indexed by IUCN score) influenced the value of bovid trophies – price was higher for species in categories denoting higher global threat. There was substantial variation in price among and within families not explained by either size or rarity. This may be attributable to a ‘charisma’ effect, which seems likely to be a general attribute of human perceptions of wildlife. Species where prices were higher than predicted by size or rarity are ranked high in published accounts of desirability by hunters. We conclude that the valuation of these species is explicable to a large extent by body size and perceived rarity, and that differences in valuation between taxonomic groups are related to less easily quantified ‘charisma’ effects. These findings are relevant for conservationists considering the threat status of species exploited in open access markets, and where license quotas are adjusted in response to changes in perceived rarity.     

Rarity and persistence

Rarity is a population characteristic that is usually associated with a high risk of extinction. We argue here, however, that chronically rare species (those with low population densities over many generations across their entire ranges) may have individual‐level traits that make populations more resistant to extinction. The major obstacle to persistence at low density is successful fertilisation (union between egg and sperm), and chronically rare species are more likely to survive when (1) fertilisation occurs inside or close to an adult, (2) mate choice involves long‐distance signals, (3) adults or their surrogate gamete dispersers are highly mobile, or (4) the two sexes are combined in a single individual. In contrast, external fertilisation and wind‐ or water‐driven passive dispersal of gametes, or sluggish or sedentary adult life habits in the absence of gamete vectors, appear to be incompatible with sustained rarity. We suggest that the documented increase in frequency of these traits among marine genera over geological time could explain observed secular decreases in rates of background extinction. Unanswered questions remain about how common chronic rarity actually is, which traits are consistently associated with chronic rarity, and how chronically rare species are distributed among taxa, and among the world's ecosystems and regions.     

The cost of being valuable: predictors of extinction risk in marine invertebrates exploited as luxury seafood

Extinction risk has been linked to biological and anthropogenic variables. Prediction of extinction risk in valuable fauna may not follow mainstream drivers when species are exploited for international markets. We use results from an International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment of extinction risk in all 377 known species of sea cucumber within the order Aspidochirotida, many of which are exploited worldwide as luxury seafood for Asian markets. Extinction risk was primarily driven by high market value, compounded by accessibility and familiarity (well known) in the marketplace. Extinction risk in marine animals often relates closely to body size and small geographical range but our study shows a clear exception. Conservation must not lose sight of common species, especially those of high value. Greater human population density and poorer economies in the geographical ranges of endangered species illustrate that anthropogenic variables can also predict extinction risks in marine animals. Local-level regulatory measures must prevent opportunistic exploitation of high-value species. Trade agreements, for example CITES, may aid conservation but will depend on international technical support to low-income tropical countries. The high proportion of data deficient species also stresses a need for research on the ecology and population demographics of unglamorous invertebrates.     

Hosts of the Plio-Pleistocene past reflect modern-day coral vulnerability

The risk of global extinction of reef-building coral species is increasing. We evaluated extinction risk using a biological trait-based resiliency index that was compared with Caribbean extinction during the Plio-Pleistocene, and with extinction risk determined by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Through the Plio-Pleistocene, the Caribbean supported more diverse coral assemblages than today and shared considerable overlap with contemporary Indo-Pacific reefs. A clear association was found between extant Plio-Pleistocene coral genera and our positive resilience scores. Regional extinction in the past and vulnerability in the present suggests that Pocillopora, Stylophora and foliose Pavona are among the most susceptible taxa to local and regional isolation. These same taxa were among the most abundant corals in the Caribbean Pliocene. Therefore, a widespread distribution did not equate with immunity to regional extinction. The strong relationship between past and present vulnerability suggests that regional extinction events are trait-based and not merely random episodes. We found several inconsistencies between our data and the IUCN scores, which suggest a need to critically re-examine what constitutes coral vulnerability.     

云南干热河谷植被与环境研究进展

特殊的地理位置和独特的地形地貌特征组合形成了典型的干热气候环境, 在云南省亚热带高原山地河谷下部发育了一类特有的植被类型, 即干热河谷植被。干热河谷植被具有非地带性和稀有性, 以及由土地利用变化为主的人为活动干扰导致的脆弱性。本文回顾了干热河谷植被的研究历史, 分别从干热河谷的植物群落学和植物区系学、干热河谷植被与土地的关系以及干热河谷植被保护与恢复三个方面进行了总结。植物群落与区系研究主要集中于群落分类、植被分类、群落特征、人为干扰影响、区系特征、性质和起源; 植被与土地关系研究侧重于土壤特性、土地利用/覆盖变化、土地退化及水土流失状况; 植被保护与恢复的热点在植被恢复目标、植被恢复功能区划、植被恢复引种及筛选及植被恢复效益评价研究。未来在这些区域应注重自然灾害及预防、水电工程建设对植被的影响及其响应等方面的研究, 深入开展大尺度植被时空格局的监测和动态服务功能分析。