Stage,age and individual stochasticity in demography

Demography is the study of the population consequences of the fates of individuals. Individuals are differentiated on the basis of age or, in general, life cycle stages. The movement of an individual through its life cycle is a random process, and although the eventual destination (death) is certain, the pathways taken to that destination are stochastic and will differ even between identical individuals; this is individual stochasticity. A stage‐classified demographic model contains implicit age‐specific information, which can be analyzed using Markov chain methods. The living stages in the life cycles are transient states in an absorbing Markov chain; death is an absorbing state. This paper presents Markov chain methods for computing the mean and variance of the lifetime number of visits to any transient state, the mean and variance of longevity, the net reproductive rate R₀, and the cohort generation time. It presents the matrix calculus methods needed to calculate the sensitivity and elasticity of all these indices to any life history parameters. These sensitivities have many uses, including calculation of selection gradients. It is shown that the use of R₀ as a measure of fitness or an invasion exponent gives erroneous results except when R₀=λ=1. The Markov chain approach is then generalized to variable environments (deterministic environmental sequences, periodic environments, iid random environments, Markovian environments). Variable environments are analyzed using the vec‐permutation method to create a model that classifies individuals jointly by the stage and environmental condition. Throughout, examples are presented using the North Atlantic right whale (Eubaleana glacialis) and an endangered prairie plant (Lomatium bradshawii) in a stochastic fire environment.     

Lifetime reproductive success in common buzzard, Buteo buteo: from individual variation to population demography

We studied annual and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of both sexes of common buzzard Buteo buteo in eastern Westphalia, Germany. We followed a bottom‐up approach starting from individual breeding attempts, over lifetime reproductive success to derive population demography. Annual breeding performance and survival followed a quadratic relationship with breeding experience; individuals starting their breeding career were less likely to survive and breed successfully than birds of intermediate breeding experience. According to an analysis of selection gradients, both the opportunity and intensity of selection peaked in the early stages of the breeding career. The distribution of both LRS and another fitness measure, λ, was highly skewed, with ca 17% of adult birds producing 50% of fledglings in both sexes. Besides breeding life span and number of breeding attempts, habitat quality and plumage morph were significant predictors of LRS. There were strong differences in LRS and λ between the plumage morphs in both sexes: intermediate pigmented buzzards were much more successful than either dark or light ones. There was no significant difference between buzzard cohorts either in LRS or λ, nor did these fitness measures differ between individuals starting their breeding career at different conditions of food availability. Based on individual life histories, we formed a transition matrix and analysed its properties to study the population as a whole. This analysis showed that the population growth rate was close to unity (0.906, bootstrapped 95% confidence limits: 0.834 and 0.962). Analysis of reproductive values and elasticities further emphasised colour morph differences: the contribution of intermediate individuals to population growth greatly exceeded that of dark or light individuals. Thus most phenomena on all levels from individual breeding attempts over lifetime reproductive success to population demography can be explained by the fitness differences between the colour morphs with the intermediate morph maintaining the current population renewal potential.     

Lifetime reproductive success and density-dependent, multi-variable resource selection

Individuals are predicted to maximize lifetime reproductive success (LRS) through selective use of resources; however, a wide range of ecological and social processes may prevent individuals from always using the highest-quality resources available. Resource selection functions (RSFs) estimate the relative amount of time an individual spends using a resource as a function of the proportional availability of that resource. We quantified the association between LRS and coefficients of individual-based RSFs describing lifetime resource selection for 267 female red deer (Cervus elaphus) of the Isle of Rum, Scotland, from 1970 to 2001. LRS was significantly related to first- and second-order effects of selection for Agrostis/Festuca grassland and proximity to the sea coast (quality of forage within Agrostis/Festuca grassland was highest nearest the coast (ratio of short:long grassland)). The benefits of selecting for quality in Agrostis/Festuca grassland, however, traded-off with increases in LRS gained by avoiding conspecific density. LRS was inversely associated with local density, which was highest along the coast, and reproductive benefits of selecting Agrostis/Festuca grassland diminished with increasing density. We discuss the relevance of these results to our understanding of the spatial distribution of red deer abundance, and potential applications of our approach to evolutionary and applied ecology.     

Lifetime reproductive output in a hermaphrodite cestode when reproducing alone or in pairs: a time cost of pairing

The cestode Schistocephalus solidus is a facultatively self-fertilising simultaneous hermaphrodite. Here we test for differences in the starting point, the rate, and the magnitude of egg production between individuals allowed to reproduce alone (only self-fertilisation possible) or in pairs (both self- and cross-fertilisation possible). Specifically, we want to distinguish between alternative processes responsible for the lower egg production in paired individuals observed in an earlier study (Wedekind et al., 1998). We designed an improved in vitro system, replacing the bird final host that allows us to measure, with high temporal resolution, the timing and magnitude of lifetime egg production of worms in these two social situations. We found that the experimental groups did not differ significantly in the starting point of egg production. However, the temporal pattern in egg production differed between them, in that paired individuals had a lower rate of egg production. This, however, did not lead to a significant reduction in lifetime egg production, as pairs compensated for the lower rate by producing eggs longer than single individuals. We argue that the lower rate of egg production may nevertheless lead to a time cost of pairing in the study species, and that this cost is likely to represent a cost of outcrossing due to sexual selection. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Temporal partitioning and aggression among foragers: modeling the effects of stochasticity and individual state

In many natural systems, individuals compete with conspecificsand heterospecifics for food and in some cases, individualshave been observed to partition their foraging times or fightover food. In this study, I investigated when it is optimalfor a consumer to partition time and be aggressive. I formulatedan individual-based model of foraging and used game theoryto find evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) that maximizethe probability that consumers survive each day and acquiretheir daily food requirements. Consumers choose when to forageand when to behave aggressively during confrontations overfood. Consumers are each associated with a state variable,representing the amount of food eaten, and a dominance ranking,which describes how likely they are to forage and fight forfood. The ESS is sensitive to food abundance, consumer state,and the dominance ranking. When food is abundant, temporalpartitioning is often an ESS where the dominant consumer foragesfirst; however, partitioning is unlikely to be an ESS whenfood abundance is low. Fights over food are typically avoidedbut may be part of an ESS when food abundance is low, bothconsumers are hungry, or the time available for foraging eachday is drawing to a close. Because the ESS is sensitive toconsumer state, the stochastic nature of finding food oftenresults in considerable variation in observed foraging dynamicsfrom one day to the next, even when consumers adopt the samestate-dependent strategy each day. Results are compared withempirical observations, and I discuss implications for consumercoexistence.     

Comparative sensitivity analysis of stable stage structures and reproductive values

New formulas for deriving the sensitivities of stable stage structures and reproductive values to changes in vital rates are presented. They enable comparison of the sensities to changes of different elements in the projection matrix; in other words, comparison of partial derivatives of the eigenvectors. These kinds of sensitivities can be used in applied problems such as an analysis of the effect of harvesting on the population structure. However, in this paper, we examine the application of the sensitivities in a more general ecological context. We investigate why the stable stage structure of the mustard aphid,Lipaphis erysimi, changes very little in the temperature interval 10–30°C. The sensitivities of the stable stage structure at 15°C and 25°C were derived. The character of the sensitivites were the same in both temperatures although the stage structure was more sensitive to changes at 15°C than at 25°C. The sensitivity analysis also revealed that the temperature variation results in changes in fecundity and developmental rate that have a counteractive effect on the population structure.     

Energetic composition,reproductive output,and resource allocation of Antarctic asteroids

Summary Thirteen species of antarctic asteroids were collected in McMurdo Sound during the austral spring and summer of 1984–1985 and 1985–1986. Variability in the energetic composition of the body wall, pyloric cecum, and gonad was directly related to differences in levels of protein, carbohydrate, lipid and ash in these tissue types. Reproductive output was generally similar between males and females when expressed in gravimetric units. When considered in energy units, females generally had greater reproductive output than males. Reproductive output values of antarctic asteroids were similar to published values for temperate, tropical, and subpolar species. In a given year, the majority of antarctic asteroids have the greatest energy resources in the body wall, a tissue representing a long-term energy investment. Lesser amounts of energy are devoted to annual nutrient storage (pyloric ceca) and reproduction (gonads).     

Additive genetic variance, heritability, and inbreeding depression in male extra-pair reproductive success

The hypothesis that female extra-pair reproduction in socially monogamous animals reflects indirect genetic benefits requires that there be additive and/or nonadditive genetic variance in fitness. However, the specific hypotheses that male extra-pair reproductive success (EPRS) shows additive genetic variance (V(A)), heritability (h2), or inbreeding depression, and hence that females could acquire indirect genetic benefits through increased EPRS of sons, have not been explicitly tested. We used comprehensive genetic pedigree data from song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to estimate V(A), h2, and inbreeding depression in the number of extra-pair offspring a male sired per year and the probability that a male would sire any extra-pair offspring per year. Inbreeding depression was substantial: more inbred males sired fewer extra-pair offspring and were less likely to sire any extra-pair offspring. In contrast, estimates of V(A) and h2 were close to 0, although 95% credible intervals were relatively wide. These data suggest that females could accrue indirect genetic benefits, in terms of increased EPRS of outbred sons, by mating with unrelated social or extra-pair mates. In contrast, any indirect benefit of extra-pair reproduction in terms of producing sons with high additive genetic value for EPRS is most likely to be small.     

Sexual selection: harem size and the variance in male reproductive success

Sexual selection is potentially stronger than natural selection when the variance in male reproductive fitness exceeds all other components of fitness variance combined. However, measuring the variance in male reproductive fitness is difficult when nonmating males are absent, inconspicuous, or otherwise difficult to find. Omitting the nonmating males inflates estimates of average male reproductive success and diminishes the variance, leading to underestimates of the potential strength of sexual selection. We show that, in theory, the proportion of the total variance in male fitness owing to sexual selection is approximately equal to H, the mean harem size, as long as H is large and females are randomly distributed across mating males (i.e., Vharem=H). In this case, mean harem size not only provides an easy way to estimate the potential strength of sexual selection but also equals the opportunity for sexual selection, I(mates). In nature, however, females may be overdispersed with VharemH. We show that H+(k-1) is a good measure of the opportunity for sexual selection, where k is the ratio Vharem/H. A review of mating system data reveals that in nature the median ratio for Vharem/H is 1.04, but as H increases, females tend to become more aggregated across mating males with V(harem) two to three times larger than H.     

Armor morphology and reproductive output in threespine stickleback,Gasterosteus aculeatus

Synopsis The threespine stickleback, Gasterosteus aculeatus, is an extensively armored fish inhabiting both marine and fresh waters across its holarctic distribution. Marine fish nearly always possess a full complement of bony lateral plates running from just behind the head to the tail, and a robust pelvic girdle complex. These armor features appear to constrain lateral and ventral abdominal distention, and therefore clutch volume. Freshwater populations in many areas exhibit variable reduction in lateral plate number, and in some regions the pelvic girdle is also reduced or lost. Freshwater populations also vary in the degree of abdominal distention exhibited by gravid females. We tested whether reduction in armoring might be correlated with increased clutch volume using five populations from the Cook Inlet area of Alaska. The hypothesis that populations having reduced pelvic girdle complexes would have greater size-adjusted clutch volumes was not supported. In fact, our two full-pelvic populations as a group had larger volumes. Similarly, size-adjusted clutch volumes were not related to pelvic phenotype within either of our two pelvic-reduced populations, nor to lateral plate morph within a fifth population. Other factors that may explain the interpopulation differences in clutch volume in threespine stickleback include body shape, food quantity and quality, intensity of predation, and even behavior. Except for a preliminary analysis of body shape, these possibilities remain unexplored. The concept of phenotypic integration suggests that these factors should be analyzed as a suite rather than individually.     

Temporal change in the genetic structure between and within cohorts of a marine fish,Diplodus sargus,induced by a large variance in individual reproductive success

Temporal changes at 16 allozyme loci in the Diplodus sargus population of Banyuls-sur-Mer (Mediterranean Sea, France) were monitored. Temporal genetic variation within a single population was examined over two temporal scales: (i) among three year-classes sampled at the same age, and (ii) within a single year-class sampled three times over a two-year period. We observed a significant change in the genotypic structure within the same cohort during the first two years following settlement and before recruitment into the adult population. In addition, comparison of year-classes showed that cohorts differed significantly one year after settlement, whereas they became similar later on before recruitment into the adult population. The observed changes in the genetic structure within and between year-classes may be the result of complex selective processes or genetic drift. Linkage disequilibrium and genetic relatedness data suggest that these changes are due to large variation in reproductive success, followed by homogenization through adult movement. Overall, these results demonstrated a rapid genetic change within a population.     

Nanocolonies: Detection, cloning, and analysis of individual molecules

Nanocolonies (other names molecular colonies or polonies) are formed upon template nanomolecule (DNA or RNA) amplification in immobilized medium with efficient pore size in the nanometer range. This work deals with the principle, invention, development, and diverse nanocolony applications based on their unique abilities to compartmentalize amplification and expression of individual DNA and RNA molecules, including studying reactions between single molecules, digital molecular diagnostics, in vitro gene cloning and expression, as well as identification of the molecular cis-elements including DNA sequencing, analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphism, and alternative splicing investigation.     

Population density, phenotype and reproductive output in the grasshopper Chorthippus brunneus

ABSTRACT. 1. The effects of population density on the reproductive output of individual female grasshoppers ( Chorthippus brunneus Thunberg) and the relationships between reproductive output and component elements of each female's phenotype, were investigated.
2. Reproductive output was primarily determined by the rate of egg-pod production. Increased density led to significant reductions in the rate of egg-pod production and reproductive output.
3. Exoskeleton size (reflecting nymphal experience) was positively correlated with clutch size at both high and low densities, but condition (reflecting adult experience) showed no such correlation. At high density, exoskeleton size was more strongly correlated with the rate of egg-pod production and reproductive output than condition. It is concluded that the nymphal aspects of size are more important than the adult aspects.
4. At low density, females with small exoskeletons compensated for their smaller clutches by producing egg-pods at a faster rate. Thus, there was no overall relationship between reproductive output and any of the phenotypic characteristics.
5. The effects of competition were weakly asymmetric in high density populations. The weakness of the asymmetry suggests scramble-like interactions for resources. It is concluded that not only are the effects of competition influenced by individual differences, but also that competition may reveal differences that would not otherwise be apparent.     

Pair formation and reproductive output in domestic pigeons

Mate selection is a conceivable mechanism whereby an animal could increase its reproductive success. The present study investigates the relationship between mate selection and reproductive output in domestic pigeons. Pairs allowed to form spontaneously, in a situation permitting a certain degree of choice, were compared with pairs randomly assigned to each other. The prediction was that spontaneously formed pairs should on average achieve a better reproductive output than pairs randomly formed. In a reproduction test the spontaneously formed pairs began egglaying earlier, laid a greater number of eggs and had a larger number of fertilized eggs. It is suggested that the difference between the groups affected such important reproductive variables that it could have a substantial effect on the birds reproductive success.