Managing Global Atmospheric Change: A U.S. Policy Perspective

There are several air pollution issues that concern the international community at the regional and global level, including acid deposition, heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climate change. Governments at the regional and global levels have entered into various agreements in an effort to deal with these problems. This paper deals with two major global atmospheric change issues: stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change. The focus is on the policy responses of the United States to these global issues. The United States has signed and ratified international agreements to deal with both problems. The Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer have led to an effort in both developed and developing countries to phase out ozone depleting substances. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been signed and ratified by over 180 countries. The UNFCC contained no binding targets and timetables for emissions reductions. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) to the UNFCCC did contain targets and timetables for reductions of greenhouse gases on the part of developed countries. The United States has signed but not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. The United States has experienced some movement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the part of various levels of government as well as the private sector. The policy process is constantly informed by scientific research. In the case of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, much of this work is carried out under the auspices of international scientific panels. From a policy perspective, there is a great deal of interest in the use of indicators for assessing the scope and magnitude of these problems, both for fashioning policy responses as well as assessing the impact of adopted programs to reduce ozone depleting substances, and potentially, greenhouse gases. This paper will discuss some of the indicators used for stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.     

Mapping the Global Distribution of Livestock

Livestock contributes directly to the livelihoods and food security of almost a billion people and affects the diet and health of many more. With estimated standing populations of 1.43 billion cattle, 1.87 billion sheep and goats, 0.98 billion pigs, and 19.60 billion chickens, reliable and accessible information on the distribution and abundance of livestock is needed for a many reasons. These include analyses of the social and economic aspects of the livestock sector; the environmental impacts of livestock such as the production and management of waste, greenhouse gas emissions and livestock-related land-use change; and large-scale public health and epidemiological investigations. The Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, produced in 2007, provided modelled livestock densities of the world, adjusted to match official (FAOSTAT) national estimates for the reference year 2005, at a spatial resolution of 3 minutes of arc (about 5×5 km at the equator). Recent methodological improvements have significantly enhanced these distributions: more up-to date and detailed sub-national livestock statistics have been collected; a new, higher resolution set of predictor variables is used; and the analytical procedure has been revised and extended to include a more systematic assessment of model accuracy and the representation of uncertainties associated with the predictions. This paper describes the current approach in detail and presents new global distribution maps at 1 km resolution for cattle, pigs and chickens, and a partial distribution map for ducks. These digital layers are made publically available via the Livestock Geo-Wiki (http://www.livestock.geo-wiki.org), as will be the maps of other livestock types as they are produced.     

Massive Sorghum Collection Genotyped with SSR Markers to Enhance Use of Global Genetic Resources

Large ex situ collections require approaches for sampling manageable amounts of germplasm for in-depth characterization and use. We present here a large diversity survey in sorghum with 3367 accessions and 41 reference nuclear SSR markers. Of 19 alleles on average per locus, the largest numbers of alleles were concentrated in central and eastern Africa. Cultivated sorghum appeared structured according to geographic regions and race within region. A total of 13 groups of variable size were distinguished. The peripheral groups in western Africa, southern Africa and eastern Asia were the most homogeneous and clearly differentiated. Except for Kafir, there was little correspondence between races and marker-based groups. Bicolor, Caudatum, Durra and Guinea types were each dispersed in three groups or more. Races should therefore better be referred to as morphotypes. Wild and weedy accessions were very diverse and scattered among cultivated samples, reinforcing the idea that large gene-flow exists between the different compartments. Our study provides an entry to global sorghum germplasm collections. Our reference marker kit can serve to aggregate additional studies and enhance international collaboration. We propose a core reference set in order to facilitate integrated phenotyping experiments towards refined functional understanding of sorghum diversity.     

Invited review: A position on the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM)

The livestock sector is one of the fastest growing subsectors of the agricultural economy and, while it makes a major contribution to global food supply and economic development, it also consumes significant amounts of natural resources and alters the environment. In order to improve our understanding of the global environmental impact of livestock supply chains, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has developed the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM). The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of GLEAM. Specifically, it explains the model architecture, methods and functionality, that is the types of analysis that the model can perform. The model focuses primarily on the quantification of greenhouse gases emissions arising from the production of the 11 main livestock commodities. The model inputs and outputs are managed and produced as raster data sets, with spatial resolution of 0.05 decimal degrees. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model v1.0 consists of five distinct modules: (a) the Herd Module; (b) the Manure Module; (c) the Feed Module; (d) the System Module; (e) the Allocation Module. In terms of the modelling approach, GLEAM has several advantages. For example spatial information on livestock distributions and crops yields enables rations to be derived that reflect the local availability of feed resources in developing countries. The Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model also contains a herd model that enables livestock statistics to be disaggregated and variation in livestock performance and management to be captured. Priorities for future development of GLEAM include: improving data quality and the methods used to perform emissions calculations; extending the scope of the model to include selected additional environmental impacts and to enable predictive modelling; and improving the utility of GLEAM output.     

Livestock Herbivory Shapes Fire Regimes and Vegetation Structure Across the Global Tropics

Ecosystems - Livestock grazing is the most extensive human land use and one of the key drivers of the conversion of tropical forests into grasslands. Livestock effects on vegetation structure are...     

Using Random Forest to Improve the Downscaling of Global Livestock Census Data

Large scale, high-resolution global data on farm animal distributions are essential for spatially explicit assessments of the epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic impacts of the livestock sector. This has been the major motivation behind the development of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, which has been extensively used since its first publication in 2007. The database relies on a downscaling methodology whereby census counts of animals in sub-national administrative units are redistributed at the level of grid cells as a function of a series of spatial covariates. The recent upgrade of GLW1 to GLW2 involved automating the processing, improvement of input data, and downscaling at a spatial resolution of 1 km per cell (5 km per cell in the earlier version). The underlying statistical methodology, however, remained unchanged. In this paper, we evaluate new methods to downscale census data with a higher accuracy and increased processing efficiency. Two main factors were evaluated, based on sample census datasets of cattle in Africa and chickens in Asia. First, we implemented and evaluated Random Forest models (RF) instead of stratified regressions. Second, we investigated whether models that predicted the number of animals per rural person (per capita) could provide better downscaled estimates than the previous approach that predicted absolute densities (animals per km²). RF models consistently provided better predictions than the stratified regressions for both continents and species. The benefit of per capita over absolute density models varied according to the species and continent. In addition, different technical options were evaluated to reduce the processing time while maintaining their predictive power. Future GLW runs (GLW 3.0) will apply the new RF methodology with optimized modelling options. The potential benefit of per capita models will need to be further investigated with a better distinction between rural and agricultural populations.     

Global Genetic Heterogeneity in Adaptive Traits

Understanding the genetic architecture of complex traits is a major objective in biology. The standard approach for doing so is genome-wide association studies (GWAS), which aim to identify genetic polymorphisms responsible for variation in traits of interest. In human genetics, consistency across studies is commonly used as an indicator of reliability. However, if traits are involved in adaptation to the local environment, we do not necessarily expect reproducibility. On the contrary, results may depend on where you sample, and sampling across a wide range of environments may decrease the power of GWAS because of increased genetic heterogeneity. In this study, we examine how sampling affects GWAS in the model plant species Arabidopsis thaliana. We show that traits like flowering time are indeed influenced by distinct genetic effects in local populations. Furthermore, using gene expression as a molecular phenotype, we show that some genes are globally affected by shared variants, whereas others are affected by variants specific to subpopulations. Remarkably, the former are essentially all cis-regulated, whereas the latter are predominately affected by trans-acting variants. Our result illustrate that conclusions about genetic architecture can be extremely sensitive to sampling and population structure.     

Managing for Interactions between Local and Global Stressors of Ecosystems

Global stressors, including climate change, are a major threat to ecosystems, but they cannot be halted by local actions. Ecosystem management is thus attempting to compensate for the impacts of global stressors by reducing local stressors, such as overfishing. This approach assumes that stressors interact additively or synergistically, whereby the combined effect of two stressors is at least the sum of their isolated effects. It is not clear, however, how management should proceed for antagonistic interactions among stressors, where multiple stressors do not have an additive or greater impact. Research to date has focussed on identifying synergisms among stressors, but antagonisms may be just as common. We examined the effectiveness of management when faced with different types of interactions in two systems – seagrass and fish communities – where the global stressor was climate change but the local stressors were different. When there were synergisms, mitigating local stressors delivered greater gains, whereas when there were antagonisms, management of local stressors was ineffective or even degraded ecosystems. These results suggest that reducing a local stressor can compensate for climate change impacts if there is a synergistic interaction. Conversely, if there is an antagonistic interaction, management of local stressors will have the greatest benefits in areas of refuge from climate change. A balanced research agenda, investigating both antagonistic and synergistic interaction types, is needed to inform management priorities.     

杨属（PopulusL.）种质资源遗传学评价研究进展

杨属（PopulusL.）种质资源极其丰富,为了有效保存、合理利用杨属种质资源,国内外开展了大量的种质资源遗传学评价研究。该文在介绍杨树系统分类的基础上,概述了白杨派、青杨派和黑杨派等在生物学特性、抗性（耐盐、抗旱、抗冻及抗病虫）、适应性及DNA遗传多态性等方面的遗传学评价研究进展,重点讨论了杨树种质资源评价研究中存在的问题和不足,并对其研究前景进行了展望。     

杨属(Populus L.)种质资源遗传学评价研究进展

杨属(Populus L.)种质资源极其丰富, 为了有效保存、合理利用杨属种质资源, 国内外开展了大量的种质资源遗传学评价研究。该文在介绍杨树系统分类的基础上, 概述了白杨派、青杨派和黑杨派等在生物学特性、抗性(耐盐、抗旱、抗冻及抗病虫)、适应性及DNA遗传多态性等方面的遗传学评价研究进展, 重点讨论了杨树种质资源评价研究中存在的问题和不足, 并对其研究前景进行了展望。     

The Influence of Agricultural Trade and Livestock Production on the Global Phosphorus Cycle

Trends of increasing agricultural trade, increased concentration of livestock production systems, and increased human consumption of livestock products influence the distribution of nutrients across the global landscape. Phosphorus (P) represents a unique management challenge as we are rapidly depleting mineable reserves of this essential and non-renewable resource. At the same time, its overuse can lead to pollution of aquatic ecosystems. We analyzed the relative contributions of food crop, feed crop, and livestock product trade to P flows through agricultural soils for 12 countries from 1961 to 2007. Due to the intensification of agricultural production, average soil surface P balances more than tripled from 6 to 21 kg P ha⁻¹ between 1961 and 2007 for the 12 study countries. Consequently, countries that are primarily agricultural exporters carried increased risks for water pollution or, for Argentina, reduced soil fertility due to soil P mining to support exports. In 2007, nations imported food and feed from regions with higher apparent P fertilizer use efficiencies than if those crops were produced domestically. However, this was largely because imports were sourced from regions depleting soil P resources to support export crop production. In addition, the pattern of regional specialization and intensification of production systems also reduced the potential to recycle P resources, with greater implications for livestock production than crop production. In a globalizing world, it will be increasingly important to integrate biophysical constraints of our natural resources and environmental impacts of agricultural systems into trade policy and agreements and to develop mechanisms that move us closer to more equitable management of non-renewable resources such as phosphorus.     

Promoting Utilization of Saccharum spp. Genetic Resources through Genetic Diversity Analysis and Core Collection Construction

Sugarcane (Saccharum spp.) and other members of Saccharum spp. are attractive biofuel feedstocks. One of the two World Collections of Sugarcane and Related Grasses (WCSRG) is in Miami, FL. This WCSRG has 1002 accessions, presumably with valuable alleles for biomass, other important agronomic traits, and stress resistance. However, the WCSRG has not been fully exploited by breeders due to its lack of characterization and unmanageable population. In order to optimize the use of this genetic resource, we aim to 1) genotypically evaluate all the 1002 accessions to understand its genetic diversity and population structure and 2) form a core collection, which captures most of the genetic diversity in the WCSRG. We screened 36 microsatellite markers on 1002 genotypes and recorded 209 alleles. Genetic diversity of the WCSRG ranged from 0 to 0.5 with an average of 0.304. The population structure analysis and principal coordinate analysis revealed three clusters with all S. spontaneum in one cluster, S. officinarum and S. hybrids in the second cluster and mostly non-Saccharum spp. in the third cluster. A core collection of 300 accessions was identified which captured the maximum genetic diversity of the entire WCSRG which can be further exploited for sugarcane and energy cane breeding. Sugarcane and energy cane breeders can effectively utilize this core collection for cultivar improvement. Further, the core collection can provide resources for forming an association panel to evaluate the traits of agronomic and commercial importance.     

Institutional Development in the Face of Complexity: Developing Rules for Managing Forest Resources

The ability to develop institutions is constrained by human capacity to cope with complexity. But complexity is multidimensional and it is not clear which forms of complexity present the greatest challenges for institutional development. In the context of natural resources, the predictability of resource availability affects expectations that an individual or group will be able to capture the benefits of management. In addition, incomplete understanding of cause-and-effect relationships creates uncertainty about the consequences of alternative management options. These features influence calculations about resource management. The importance of resource complexity relative to various social, political, and institutional factors known to influence collective choice remains an open question. We evaluate the relative importance of several forms of resource complexity and characteristics of resource users for the development of rules for management for forest products in Indiana.