首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.

Background

Childhood diarrhea continues to be a public health problem in developing countries, including Ethiopia. Detecting clusters and trends of childhood diarrhea is important to designing effective interventions. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate spatiotemporal clustering and seasonal variability of childhood diarrhea in northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

Retrospective record review of childhood diarrhea was conducted using quarterly reported data to the district health office for the seven years period beginning July 1, 2007. Thirty three districts were included and geo-coded in this study. Spatial, temporal and space-time scan spatial statistics were employed to identify clusters of childhood diarrhea. Smoothing using a moving average was applied to visualize the trends and seasonal pattern of childhood diarrhea. Statistical analyses were performed using Excel® and SaTScan programs. The maps were plotted using ArcGIS 10.0.

Results

Childhood diarrhea in northwest Ethiopia exhibits statistical evidence of spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal clustering, with seasonal patterns and decreasing temporal trends observed in the study area. A most likely purely spatial cluster was found in the East Gojjam administrative zone of Gozamin district (LLR = 7123.89, p <0.001). The most likely spatiotemporal cluster was detected in all districts of East Gojjam zone and a few districts of the West Gojjam zone (LLR = 24929.90, p<0.001), appearing from July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2011. One high risk period from July 1, 2008 to June 30, 2010 (LLR = 9655.86, p = 0.001) was observed in all districts. Peak childhood diarrhea cases showed a seasonal trend, occurring more frequently from January to March and April to June.

Conclusion

Childhood diarrhea did not occur at random. It has spatiotemporal variation and seasonal patterns with a decreasing temporal trend. Accounting for the spatiotemporal variation identified in the study areas is advised for the prevention and control of diarrhea.  相似文献   

2.

Background

As the geographical distribution of malaria transmission becomes progressively clustered, identifying residual pockets of transmission is important for research and for targeting interventions. Malarial antibody-based surveillance is increasingly recognised as a valuable complement to classic methods for the detection of infection foci especially at low transmission levels. The study presents serological evidence for transmission heterogeneity among school children in The Gambia measured during the dry, non-transmission season.

Methods

Healthy primary school children were randomly selected from 30 schools across the country and screened for malaria infection (microscopy) and antimalarial antibodies (MSP119). Antibody distribution was modelled using 2-component finite mixture model with cut-off for positivity from pooled sera set at 2-standard deviation from the mean of the first component. Factors associated with a positive serological status were identified in a univariate model and then combined in a multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression model, simultaneously adjusting for variations between individuals and school.

Results

A total of 4140 children, 1897 (46%) boys, were enrolled with mean age of 10.2 years (SD 2.6, range 4–20 years). Microscopy results available for 3640 (87.9%) children showed that 1.9% (69) were positive for Plasmodium falciparum infections, most of them (97.1%, 67/69) asymptomatic. The overall seroprevalence was 12.7% (527/4140) with values for the schools ranging from 0.6% to 43.8%. Age (OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07–1.16,) and parasite carriage (OR 3.36, 95% CI 1.95–5.79) were strongly associated with seropositivity.

Conclusion

Serological responses to malaria parasites could identify individuals who were or had been infected, and clusters of residual transmission. Field-adapted antibody tests able to guide mass screening and treatment campaigns would be extremely useful.  相似文献   

3.
Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs are potentially a powerful tool for local elimination of malaria, yet current diagnostic technologies are insufficiently sensitive to identify all individuals who harbor infections. At the same time, overtreatment of uninfected individuals increases the risk of accelerating emergence of drug resistance and losing community acceptance. Local heterogeneity in transmission intensity may allow campaign strategies that respond to index cases to successfully target subpatent infections while simultaneously limiting overtreatment. While selective targeting of hotspots of transmission has been proposed as a strategy for malaria control, such targeting has not been tested in the context of malaria elimination. Using household locations, demographics, and prevalence data from a survey of four health facility catchment areas in southern Zambia and an agent-based model of malaria transmission and immunity acquisition, a transmission intensity was fit to each household based on neighborhood age-dependent malaria prevalence. A set of individual infection trajectories was constructed for every household in each catchment area, accounting for heterogeneous exposure and immunity. Various campaign strategies—mass drug administration, mass screen and treat, focal mass drug administration, snowball reactive case detection, pooled sampling, and a hypothetical serological diagnostic—were simulated and evaluated for performance at finding infections, minimizing overtreatment, reducing clinical case counts, and interrupting transmission. For malaria control, presumptive treatment leads to substantial overtreatment without additional morbidity reduction under all but the highest transmission conditions. Compared with untargeted approaches, selective targeting of hotspots with drug campaigns is an ineffective tool for elimination due to limited sensitivity of available field diagnostics. Serological diagnosis is potentially an effective tool for malaria elimination but requires higher coverage to achieve similar results to mass distribution of presumptive treatment.  相似文献   

4.
Mosquito-borne diseases are a global health priority disproportionately affecting low-income populations in tropical and sub-tropical countries. These pathogens live in mosquitoes and hosts that interact in spatially heterogeneous environments where hosts move between regions of varying transmission intensity. Although there is increasing interest in the implications of spatial processes for mosquito-borne disease dynamics, most of our understanding derives from models that assume spatially homogeneous transmission. Spatial variation in contact rates can influence transmission and the risk of epidemics, yet the interaction between spatial heterogeneity and movement of hosts remains relatively unexplored. Here we explore, analytically and through numerical simulations, how human mobility connects spatially heterogeneous mosquito populations, thereby influencing disease persistence (determined by the basic reproduction number R0), prevalence and their relationship. We show that, when local transmission rates are highly heterogeneous, R0 declines asymptotically as human mobility increases, but infection prevalence peaks at low to intermediate rates of movement and decreases asymptotically after this peak. Movement can reduce heterogeneity in exposure to mosquito biting. As a result, if biting intensity is high but uneven, infection prevalence increases with mobility despite reductions in R0. This increase in prevalence decreases with further increase in mobility because individuals do not spend enough time in high transmission patches, hence decreasing the number of new infections and overall prevalence. These results provide a better basis for understanding the interplay between spatial transmission heterogeneity and human mobility, and their combined influence on prevalence and R0.  相似文献   

5.
This study was done to provide an analytical overview on the latest malaria infection clusters by evaluating temporal trends during 2010–2019 in Korea. Incheon was the most likely cluster (MLC) for all cases of malaria during the total period. MLCs for P. falciparum, vivax, malariae, ovale, and clinically diagnosed malaria without parasitological confirmation were Jeollanam-do, Incheon, Gangwon-do, Gyeongsangnam-do, and Jeollabuk-do, respectively. Malaria was decreasing in most significant clusters, but Gwangju showed an increase for all cases of malaria, P. vivax and clinically diagnosed cases. Malaria overall, P. falciparum and P. vivax seem to be under control thanks to aggressive health measures. This study might provide a sound scientific basis for future control measures against malaria in Korea.  相似文献   

6.
The Ross-Macdonald model has dominated theory for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control for over a century. The model, like many other basic population models, makes the mathematically convenient assumption that populations are well mixed; i.e., that each mosquito is equally likely to bite any vertebrate host. This assumption raises questions about the validity and utility of current theory because it is in conflict with preponderant empirical evidence that transmission is heterogeneous. Here, we propose a new dynamic framework that is realistic enough to describe biological causes of heterogeneous transmission of mosquito-borne pathogens of humans, yet tractable enough to provide a basis for developing and improving general theory. The framework is based on the ecological context of mosquito blood meals and the fine-scale movements of individual mosquitoes and human hosts that give rise to heterogeneous transmission. Using this framework, we describe pathogen dispersion in terms of individual-level analogues of two classical quantities: vectorial capacity and the basic reproductive number, . Importantly, this framework explicitly accounts for three key components of overall heterogeneity in transmission: heterogeneous exposure, poor mixing, and finite host numbers. Using these tools, we propose two ways of characterizing the spatial scales of transmission—pathogen dispersion kernels and the evenness of mixing across scales of aggregation—and demonstrate the consequences of a model''s choice of spatial scale for epidemic dynamics and for estimation of , both by a priori model formulas and by inference of the force of infection from time-series data.  相似文献   

7.
Human habitat connectivity, movement rates, and spatial heterogeneity have tremendous impact on malaria transmission. In this paper, a deterministic system of differential equations for malaria transmission incorporating human movements and the development of drug resistance malaria in an \(n\) patch system is presented. The disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. For a two patch case, the boundary equilibria (drug sensitive-only and drug resistance-only boundary equilibria) when there is no movement between the patches are shown to be locally asymptotically stable when they exist; the co-existence equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the reproduction number for the drug sensitive malaria is greater than the reproduction number for the resistance malaria. Furthermore, numerical simulations of the connected two patch model (when there is movement between the patches) suggest that co-existence or competitive exclusion of the two strains can occur when the respective reproduction numbers of the two strains exceed unity. With slow movement (or low migration) between the patches, the drug sensitive strain dominates the drug resistance strain. However, with fast movement (or high migration) between the patches, the drug resistance strain dominates the drug sensitive strain.  相似文献   

8.
9.
Using geo-referenced case data, we present spatial and spatio-temporal cluster analyses of the early spread of the 2013–2015 chikungunya virus (CHIKV) in Dominica, an island in the Caribbean. Spatial coordinates of the locations of the first 417 reported cases observed between December 15th, 2013 and March 11th, 2014, were captured using the Global Positioning System (GPS). We observed a preponderance of female cases, which has been reported for CHIKV outbreaks in other regions. We also noted statistically significant spatial and spatio-temporal clusters in highly populated areas and observed major clusters prior to implementation of intensive vector control programs suggesting early vector control measures, and education had an impact on the spread of the CHIKV epidemic in Dominica. A dynamical identification of clusters can lead to local assessment of risk and provide opportunities for targeted control efforts for nations experiencing CHIKV outbreaks.  相似文献   

10.

Background

Information about malaria risk factors at high altitudes is scanty. Understanding the risk factors that determine the risk of malaria transmission at high altitude villages is important to facilitate implementing sustainable malaria control and prevention programs.

Methods

An unmatched case control study was conducted among patients seeking treatment at health centers in high altitude areas. Either microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests were used to confirm the presence of plasmodium species. A generalized linear model was used to identify the predictors of malaria transmission in high altitude villages.

Results

Males (AOR = 3.11, 95%CI: 2.28, 4.23), and those who traveled away from the home in the previous month (AOR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.56, 2.58) were strongly associated with presence of malaria in high altitude villages. Other significant factors, including agriculture in occupation (AOR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.93), plants used for fencing (AOR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.52) and forests near the house (AOR = 1.60, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.47), were found predictors for malaria in high altitude villages.

Conclusion

Travel outside of their home was an important risk of malaria infections acquisition. Targeting males who frequently travel to malarious areas can reduce malaria transmission risks in high altitude areas.  相似文献   

11.
Following substantial decline in malaria burden in Ethiopia, the country is planning to eliminate malaria in certain low transmission settings by 2020. To evaluate the attainability of this goal in-depth examination of malaria parasite carriage at community level is necessary. This study was, therefore, aimed at assessing the current situation of malaria in relation to ongoing control interventions in Jiga area, Jabi Tehnan District in northwest Ethiopia. A cross-sectional household (HH) survey was conducted in November-December 2013. Out of 2,574 HHs (11,815 people) in the entire Jabi Tehnan District, 392 (accommodating 1911 people) were randomly selected from three purposely selected villages. One randomly selected member from each selected HH was tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic test (mRDT). All participants tested for malaria (n = 392) were afebrile (axillary temperature <37.5°C). Eleven individuals (2.8%, 95% confidence interval (CI):1.2–4.4%) were found to be mRDT positive. Most HHs (95.9%, 95% CI: 93.5–97.5%) had at least 1 long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN). Insecticide residual spraying (IRS) coverage the last six months was 85.5% (95% CI: 82.0–88.9%). Malaria prevalence remains unexpectedly high despite high HH coverage of control interventions.  相似文献   

12.
Restriction endonuclease analysis of mtDNA was used to examine the genetic relatedness of several geographically separated isolines of the Drosophila mercatorum subgroup. In addition, we examined the temporal and spatial distribution of two mtDNA restriction site polymorphisms produced by the enzymes BstEII and BstNI at a single locality--Kamuela, Hawaii. Due to small sample sizes of some collections and the undesirable dependance of the estimation of polymorphism frequency on its variance, an arcsin square root transformation of the frequency data was used. We also use an Fst estimator of our transformed frequencies to demonstrate considerable spatial and temporal differentiation within the Kamuela population. In contrast, isozyme data from the same population reveals no pattern of differentiation. The temporal and geographic heterogeneity and population subdivision detected with mtDNA analysis also is consistent with the known dispersal behavior and ecological constraints of this species. The mtDNA data in conjunction with the isozyme data show that the population structure of the Kamuela D. mercatorum is close to the boundary line separating panmixia from subdivision, a conclusion that could not be made from isozyme data alone.  相似文献   

13.
景观生态学的核心:生态学系统的时空异质性   总被引:41,自引:8,他引:41  
1 景观生态学与景观异质性景观生态学是研究在一个相当大的区域内 ,由许多不同生态系统所组成的整体 (即景观 )的空间结构、相互作用、协调功能以及动态变化的生态学新分支[1 ] 。它的出现促进了空间关系模型和理论、空间格局与动态的数据类型的获取以及经典生态学很少涉及的空间尺度检测等方面的发展[2 ] 。Risser等认为景观生态学研究就是异质性的研究[3] 。其实 ,“景观”本身就具有“变化的异质性整体”的含义[4] 。景观生态学集中关注于对生态系统空间关系的研究 ,它把景观视为空间上镶嵌出现和紧密联系的生态系统组合 ,景观可…  相似文献   

14.

Background

The major clinical challenge in the treatment of high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) is the development of progressive resistance to platinum-based chemotherapy. The objective of this study was to determine whether intra-tumour genetic heterogeneity resulting from clonal evolution and the emergence of subclonal tumour populations in HGSOC was associated with the development of resistant disease.

Methods and Findings

Evolutionary inference and phylogenetic quantification of heterogeneity was performed using the MEDICC algorithm on high-resolution whole genome copy number profiles and selected genome-wide sequencing of 135 spatially and temporally separated samples from 14 patients with HGSOC who received platinum-based chemotherapy. Samples were obtained from the clinical CTCR-OV03/04 studies, and patients were enrolled between 20 July 2007 and 22 October 2009. Median follow-up of the cohort was 31 mo (interquartile range 22–46 mo), censored after 26 October 2013. Outcome measures were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). There were marked differences in the degree of clonal expansion (CE) between patients (median 0.74, interquartile range 0.66–1.15), and dichotimization by median CE showed worse survival in CE-high cases (PFS 12.7 versus 10.1 mo, p = 0.009; OS 42.6 versus 23.5 mo, p = 0.003). Bootstrap analysis with resampling showed that the 95% confidence intervals for the hazard ratios for PFS and OS in the CE-high group were greater than 1.0. These data support a relationship between heterogeneity and survival but do not precisely determine its effect size. Relapsed tissue was available for two patients in the CE-high group, and phylogenetic analysis showed that the prevalent clonal population at clinical recurrence arose from early divergence events. A subclonal population marked by a NF1 deletion showed a progressive increase in tumour allele fraction during chemotherapy.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates that quantitative measures of intra-tumour heterogeneity may have predictive value for survival after chemotherapy treatment in HGSOC. Subclonal tumour populations are present in pre-treatment biopsies in HGSOC and can undergo expansion during chemotherapy, causing clinical relapse.  相似文献   

15.
Pseudophyllidean cestodes as Ligula have a complex life cycle with cyclopoid copepods as first intermediate host, zooplanktivorous fish as second, and piscivorous birds as final host. We studied the effects of diet, season and habitat occupation on the prevalence of plerocercoid larvae of the tapeworm Ligula intestinalis in two closely related small barbs and the effects of the parasites on the barbs life histories in Lake Tana (Ethiopia) during 1 year. In all affected barbs L. intestinalis caused retardation in gonad development, maturation at reduced size and lower absolute fecundity. Infection rate, averaged over all habitats was significantly higher in B. tanapelagius (10%) than in B. humilis (6%). Below a threshold of 48 mm the infection rate was zero for both barbs, this coincided with a very low proportion of copepods in their diets, increasing up to 90 and 55%, respectively, for their largest size class (81–90 mm). The relatively high infection rate in B. tanapelagius is explained by its obligatory zooplanktivorous feeding behaviour, ingesting a relatively high proportion of infected cyclopoid copepods. This is in contrast with B. humilis, which is a polyphagous species, feeding both on zooplankton and benthic invertebrates. Significant seasonal effects in infection rates were observed. In both barb species infection rates were lower during the breeding season. Only for B. tanapelagius a significant negative correlation was observed between rain fall and infection rate, probably caused by an increased turbidity that decreases feeding efficiency on zooplankton. Habitat type had also a significant effect on infection rate. Barbus humilis showed a much higher infection rate in shallow clear water (10%) than in shallow turbid water (3%), whereas B. tanapelagius showed much higher infection rates in the shallow sublittoral (13%) than in the deeper pelagic (7%). Most likely, birds predate more efficiently on barbs in shallow clear waters than in shallow turbid and deep waters.  相似文献   

16.
Compared to freshwater and the open ocean, less is known about bacterioplankton community structure and spatiotemporal dynamics in estuaries, particularly those with long residence times. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States, but despite its ecological and economic significance, little is known about its microbial community composition. A rapid screening approach, ITS (internal transcribed spacer)-LH (length heterogeneity)-PCR, was used to screen six rRNA operon (16S rRNA-ITS-23S rRNA) clone libraries constructed from bacterioplankton collected in three distinct regions of the Chesapeake Bay over two seasons. The natural length variation of the 16S-23S rRNA gene ITS region, as well as the presence and location of tRNA-alanine coding regions within the ITS, was determined for 576 clones. Clones representing unique ITS-LH-PCR sizes were sequenced and identified. Dramatic shifts in bacterial composition (changes within subgroups or clades) were observed for the Alphaproteobacteria (Roseobacter clade, SAR11), Cyanobacteria (Synechococcus), and Actinobacteria, suggesting strong seasonal variation within these taxonomic groups. Despite large gradients in salinity and phytoplankton parameters, a remarkably homogeneous bacterioplankton community was observed in the bay in each season. Stronger seasonal, rather than spatial, variation of the bacterioplankton population was also supported by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and LH-PCR analyses, indicating that environmental parameters with stronger seasonal, rather than regional, dynamics, such as temperature, might determine bacterioplankton community composition in the Chesapeake Bay.  相似文献   

17.
天山云杉天然林群落空间结构异质性分析   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3       下载免费PDF全文
为了解天山云杉(Picea schrenkiana var. tianschanica)天然林群落空间结构的变异规律,沿天山山脉由西至东选择5个地点(昭苏、新源、呼图壁、天池、奇台),在每一地点沿海拔布设样带进行天山云杉群落调查,样带海拔区间为1700~2900 m。利用角尺度、大小比数分析其群落空间结构特征。结果表明: (1) 5个样带天山云杉角尺度平均值为0.545,群落呈团状分布格局;大小比数平均值为0.490,群落内林木的生长状态介于亚优势与优势之间。(2) 不同海拔高度天山云杉角尺度的变化显示随海拔高度的增加该群落呈现聚集分布-随机分布-聚集分布-随机分布的交替变化规律;大小比数随海拔高度的变化显示群落中天山云杉林木生长分化特征随海拔的增加呈现出亚优势-中庸-亚优势-劣势的规律。(3) 5个地点天山云杉角尺度平均值随着经度的变化较小,各地点均呈明显的整体团状分布;而林木大小分化由西至东表现为中庸木-亚优势木-中庸木的转变特征。  相似文献   

18.
BackgroundIn recent years, the primate malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has emerged in human populations throughout South East Asia, with the largest hotspot being in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Control efforts are hindered by limited knowledge of where and when people get exposed to mosquito vectors. It is assumed that exposure occurs primarily when people are working in forest areas, but the role of other potential exposure routes (including domestic or peri-domestic transmission) has not been thoroughly investigated.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study shows there is a possibility that humans can be exposed to P. knowlesi infection around their homes. The vector is highly exophagic and few were caught indoors indicating interventions using bednets inside households may have relatively little impact.  相似文献   

19.
The extent to which self-adopted or intervention-related changes in behaviors affect the course of epidemics remains a key issue for outbreak control. This study attempted to quantify the effect of such changes on the risk of infection in different settings, i.e., the community and hospitals. The 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong, where 27% of cases were healthcare workers, was used as an example. A stochastic compartmental SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) model was used: the population was split into healthcare workers, hospitalized people and general population. Super spreading events (SSEs) were taken into account in the model. The temporal evolutions of the daily effective contact rates in the community and hospitals were modeled with smooth functions. Data augmentation techniques and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were applied to estimate SARS epidemiological parameters. In particular, estimates of daily reproduction numbers were provided for each subpopulation. The average duration of the SARS infectious period was estimated to be 9.3 days (±0.3 days). The model was able to disentangle the impact of the two SSEs from background transmission rates. The effective contact rates, which were estimated on a daily basis, decreased with time, reaching zero inside hospitals. This observation suggests that public health measures and possible changes in individual behaviors effectively reduced transmission, especially in hospitals. The temporal patterns of reproduction numbers were similar for healthcare workers and the general population, indicating that on average, an infectious healthcare worker did not infect more people than any other infectious person. We provide a general method to estimate time dependence of parameters in structured epidemic models, which enables investigation of the impact of control measures and behavioral changes in different settings.  相似文献   

20.
Hemoglobinopathy and malaria are commonly found worldwide particularly in malaria endemic areas. Thalassemia, the alteration of globin chain synthesis, has been reported to confer resistance against malaria. The prevalence of thalassemia was investigated in 101 malaria patients with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax along the Thai-Myanmar border to examine protective effect of thalassemia against severe malaria. Hemoglobin typing was performed using low pressure liquid chromatography (LPLC) and α-thalassemia was confirmed by multiplex PCR. Five types of thalassemia were observed in malaria patients. The 2 major types of thalassemia were Hb E (18.8%) and α-thalassemia-2 (11.9%). There was no association between thalassemia hemoglobinopathy and malaria parasitemia, an indicator of malaria disease severity. Thalassemia had no significant association with P. vivax infection, but the parasitemia in patients with coexistence of P. vivax and thalassemia was about 2-3 times lower than those with coexistence of P. falciparum and thalassemia and malaria without thalassemia. Furthermore, the parasitemia of P. vivax in patients with coexistence of Hb E showed lower value than coexistence with other types of thalassemia and malaria without coexistence. Parasitemia, hemoglobin, and hematocrit values in patients with coexistence of thalassemia other than Hb E were significantly lower than those without coexistence of thalassemia. Furthermore, parasitemia with coexistence of Hb E were 2 times lower than those with coexistence of thalassemia other than Hb E. In conclusion, the results may, at least in part, support the protective effect of thalassemia on the development of hyperparasitemia and severe anemia in malaria patients.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号