Trust-Enhanced Cloud Service Selection Model Based on QoS Analysis

Cloud computing technology plays a very important role in many areas, such as in the construction and development of the smart city. Meanwhile, numerous cloud services appear on the cloud-based platform. Therefore how to how to select trustworthy cloud services remains a significant problem in such platforms, and extensively investigated owing to the ever-growing needs of users. However, trust relationship in social network has not been taken into account in existing methods of cloud service selection and recommendation. In this paper, we propose a cloud service selection model based on the trust-enhanced similarity. Firstly, the direct, indirect, and hybrid trust degrees are measured based on the interaction frequencies among users. Secondly, we estimate the overall similarity by combining the experience usability measured based on Jaccard’s Coefficient and the numerical distance computed by Pearson Correlation Coefficient. Then through using the trust degree to modify the basic similarity, we obtain a trust-enhanced similarity. Finally, we utilize the trust-enhanced similarity to find similar trusted neighbors and predict the missing QoS values as the basis of cloud service selection and recommendation. The experimental results show that our approach is able to obtain optimal results via adjusting parameters and exhibits high effectiveness. The cloud services ranking by our model also have better QoS properties than other methods in the comparison experiments.     

通用选择指数的通径分析化模型

通过对各种选择指数的通径分析化模型进行系统化的研究,建立了通用选择指数的通径分析化模型,并给出了各种选择指数及其通径分析化的统一表示形式．用该模型可以充分利用各种信息来源,特别是在对各种信息来源需作各种约束时,为选种和评定优种提供了行之有效的计算方法和统一程序,避免了在实际应用中因计算体系不同而导致的混乱．     

长白猪典范选择指数的构建与通径分析化研究

本研究围绕长白猪选育目标,将典范分析与通径分析有机结合,实现了典范选择指数相关遗传进展的剖分,为构建和评价典范选择指数提供了一种有效方法。     

长白猪综合选择指数及其通径分析化研究

选取长白猪１０９头后备猪,育肥猪６４头为试验材料;由此制订了综合选择指 数．经过通径分析化研究发现体高为正向选择性状,管围和膘厚为负向选择性状,决定系 数为 ６０．７％,中选符合率为 ８７．５％．     

Economic and Societal Changes in China and their Effects onWater Use A Scenario Analysis

China's development over the last few decades has been characterized by high rates of economic growth, large-scale migration from rural areas to the fast-growing cities accompanied by changes in lifestyles, and steady population growth. These developments have left deep marks on resource availability and quality. In this article we conduct a scenario analysis of how lifestyle changes and other major developments might affect water resources.
China has the longest tradition in river and water resource management in the world. Its civilization has sought to control the effects of floods and drought for thousands of years and has utilized water flows for irrigation and navigation. In the last century, competing uses such as domestic, municipal, and industrial water consumption have also become reasons for the regulation of and large-scale abstraction of water.
To investigate the major changes in economy and society and their effects on the water situation in China, a set of scenarios is developed and analyzed within a structural economics framework. A hydrological model that represents water flows in the major watersheds is linked to a regional input-output model that represents socioeconomic activities in the major economic-administrative regions of China. The regional analysis shows that the North and Northwest regions are water-scarce and that lifestyle changes and technical shifts are the most important factors driving future water consumption.     

A Novel Method for Optimum Global Positioning System Satellite Selection Based on a Modified Genetic Algorithm

In this paper, a novel method for selecting a navigation satellite subset for a global positioning system (GPS) based on a genetic algorithm is presented. This approach is based on minimizing the factors in the geometric dilution of precision (GDOP) using a modified genetic algorithm (MGA) with an elite conservation strategy, adaptive selection, adaptive mutation, and a hybrid genetic algorithm that can select a subset of the satellites represented by specific numbers in the interval (4 ∼ n) while maintaining position accuracy. A comprehensive simulation demonstrates that the MGA-based satellite selection method effectively selects the correct number of optimal satellite subsets using receiver autonomous integrity monitoring (RAIM) or fault detection and exclusion (FDE). This method is more adaptable and flexible for GPS receivers, particularly for those used in handset equipment and mobile phones.     

Minimizing Bias in Biomass Allometry: Model Selection and Log‐Transformation of Data

Nonlinear regression is increasingly used to develop allometric equations for forest biomass estimation (i.e., as opposed to the traditional approach of log‐transformation followed by linear regression). Most statistical software packages, however, assume additive errors by default, violating a key assumption of allometric theory and possibly producing spurious models. Here, we show that such models may bias stand‐level biomass estimates by up to 100 percent in young forests, and we present an alternative nonlinear fitting approach that conforms with allometric theory.     

Model-free Analysis of Protein Dynamics: Assessment of Accuracy and Model Selection Protocols Based on Molecular Dynamics Simulation

The popular model-free approach to analyze NMR relaxation measurements has been examined using artificial amide (15)N relaxation data sets generated from a 10 nanosecond molecular dynamics trajectory of a dihydrofolate reductase ternary complex in explicit water. With access to a detailed picture of the underlying internal motions, the efficacy of model-free analysis and impact of model selection protocols on the interpretation of NMR data can be studied. In the limit of uncorrelated global tumbling and internal motions, fitting the relaxation data to the model-free models can recover a significant amount of quantitative information on the internal dynamics. Despite a slight overestimation, the generalized order parameter is quite accurately determined. However, the model-free analysis appears to be insensitive to the presence of nanosecond time scale motions with relatively small magnitude. For such cases, the effective correlation time can be significantly underestimated. As a result, proteins appear to be more rigid than they really are. The model selection protocols have a major impact on the information one can reliably obtain. The commonly employed protocol based on step-up hypothesis testing has severe drawbacks of oversimplification and underfitting. The consequences are that the order parameter is more severely overestimated and the correlation time more severely underestimated. Instead, model selection based on Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), recently introduced to the model-free analysis by d'Auvergne and Gooley (2003), provides a better balance between bias and variance. More appropriate models can be selected, leading to improved estimate of both the order parameter and correlation time. In addition, the computational cost is significantly reduced and subjective parameters such as the significance level are unnecessary.     

临床医生在基因检测咨询中面对伦理两难问题态度与选择 ——基于情景案例分析

目的 通过情景案例分析,聚焦基因检测咨询中的伦理两难事件,探究临床医生的伦理道德抉择及可能的影响因素。 方法 采用分层随机抽样方法,对624名临床医生进行了匿名问卷调查。 结果 对于XY染色体女性案件,88%的应答者选择告知敏感性信息;对于父系信息的披露,近60%的应答者选择单独告诉母亲;对于是否告知患儿其他亲属相关遗传病信息的案件,应答者的意见则相对分散。 结论 针对三个典型的基因检测咨询中的伦理两难问题,应结合国际相关指南的要求,进一步加大相关的法律与伦理理念、知识的教育与普及。     

Model and Scenario Variations in Predicted Number of Generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on Peanut during Future Climate Change Scenario

The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM) of future data on daily maximum (T.max), minimum (T.min) air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF) -2020, Distant future (DF)-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF)—2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1–2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18–22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%), model (1.74%) and scenario (0.74%). The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.     

Effect of Model Sorptive Phases on Phenanthrene Biodegradation: Molecular Analysis of Enrichments and Isolates Suggests Selection Based on Bioavailability

Reduced bioavailability of nonpolar contaminants due to sorption to natural organic matter is an important factor controlling biodegradation of pollutants in the environment. We established enrichment cultures in which solid organic phases were used to reduce phenanthrene bioavailability to different degrees (R. J. Grosser, M. Friedrich, D. M. Ward, and W. P. Inskeep, Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 66:2695–2702, 2000). Bacteria enriched and isolated from contaminated soils under these conditions were analyzed by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) and sequencing of PCR-amplified 16S ribosomal DNA segments. Compared to DGGE patterns obtained with enrichment cultures containing sand or no sorptive solid phase, different DGGE patterns were obtained with enrichment cultures containing phenanthrene sorbed to beads of Amberlite IRC-50 (AMB), a weak cation-exchange resin, and especially Biobead SM7 (SM7), a polyacrylic resin that sorbed phenanthrene more strongly. SM7 enrichments selected for mycobacterial phenanthrene mineralizers, whereas AMB enrichments selected for a Burkholderia sp. that degrades phenanthrene. Identical mycobacterial and Burkholderia 16S rRNA sequence segments were found in SM7 and AMB enrichment cultures inoculated with contaminated soil from two geographically distant sites. Other closely related Burkholderia sp. populations, some of which utilized phenanthrene, were detected in sand and control enrichment cultures. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that different phenanthrene-utilizing bacteria inhabiting the same soils may be adapted to different phenanthrene bioavailabilities.     

Parametric Pattern Selection in a Reaction-Diffusion Model

We compare spot patterns generated by Turing mechanisms with those generated by replication cascades, in a model one-dimensional reaction-diffusion system. We determine the stability region of spot solutions in parameter space as a function of a natural control parameter (feed-rate) where degenerate patterns with different numbers of spots coexist for a fixed feed-rate. While it is possible to generate identical patterns via both mechanisms, we show that replication cascades lead to a wider choice of pattern profiles that can be selected through a tuning of the feed-rate, exploiting hysteresis and directionality effects of the different pattern pathways.     

基于ARIMA模型的我国医院就诊人次预测分析

目的 预测和分析2011—2015年我国医院就诊人次和卫生服务需求。方法 建立ARIMA（1,2,2）模型,预测我国医院就诊人次。结果 未来5年我国医院就诊人次呈增长趋势,平均每年增长9.32%。结论 要加大卫生投入,合理配置卫生资源,加快公共卫生服务体系建设,完善医疗保障体系建设,以满足人们的卫生健康需求。     

Spatiotemporal Characteristics,Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO₂ emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO₂ emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO₂ emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO₂ emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO₂ emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO₂ emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO₂ emissions.     

IPAT及其扩展模型的应用研究进展

IPAT及其扩展模型能够定量描述人文驱动力与环境压力之间的关系,有助于理解人类和自然系统的动态耦合,是诊断因社会经济发展而产生的环境问题的有效工具.本文简要介绍了IPAT模型由来及其扩展模型的发展状况,系统总结了模型国内外应用研究进展,并对研究中的热点问题进行探讨,提出IPAT及其扩展模型的发展趋势,旨在进一步深化IPAT相关模型在环境可持续发展中的应用,为社会管理决策提供依据.     

Structural Path Analysis of Fossil Fuel Based CO2 Emissions: A Case Study for China

Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EEIOA) has long been used to quantify global and regional environmental impacts and to clarify emission transfers. Structural path analysis (SPA), a technique based on EEIOA, is especially useful for measuring significant flows in this environmental-economic system. This paper constructs an imports-adjusted single-region input-output (SRIO) model considering only domestic final use elements, and it uses the SPA technique to highlight crucial routes along the production chain in both final use and sectoral perspectives. The results indicate that future mitigation policies on household consumption should change direct energy use structures in rural areas, cut unreasonable demand for power and chemical products, and focus on urban areas due to their consistently higher magnitudes than rural areas in the structural routes. Impacts originating from government spending should be tackled by managing onsite energy use in 3 major service sectors and promoting cleaner fuels and energy-saving techniques in the transport sector. Policies on investment should concentrate on sectoral interrelationships along the production chain by setting up standards to regulate upstream industries, especially for the services, construction and equipment manufacturing sectors, which have high demand pulling effects. Apart from the similar methods above, mitigating policies in exports should also consider improving embodied technology and quality in manufactured products to achieve sustainable development. Additionally, detailed sectoral results in the coal extraction industry highlight the onsite energy use management in large domestic companies, emphasize energy structure rearrangement, and indicate resources and energy safety issues. Conclusions based on the construction and public administration sectors reveal that future mitigation in secondary and tertiary industries should be combined with upstream emission intensive industries in a systematic viewpoint to achieve sustainable development. Overall, SPA is a useful tool in empirical studies, and it can be used to analyze national environmental impacts and guide future mitigation policies.     

Dynamic Regimes in a Model of Single-Locus Density-Dependent Selection

A model of density-dependent selection in a Mendelian single-locus population was analyzed in the case where the fitnesses of genotypic forms are exponential functions of the population size. Analytical and numerical studies of the model were performed for a diallelic locus, and parametric regions were established for different dynamic behaviors of the model. The diallelic model of density-dependent selection was generalized to a multiallelic locus; the results of its analysis are described.     

Habitat Selection of a Large Carnivore along Human-Wildlife Boundaries in a Highly Modified Landscape

When large carnivores occupy peripheral human lands conflict with humans becomes inevitable, and the reduction of human-carnivore interactions must be the first consideration for those concerned with conflict mitigation. Studies designed to identify areas of high human-bear interaction are crucial for prioritizing management actions. Due to a surge in conflicts, against a background of social intolerance to wildlife and the prevalent use of lethal control throughout Japan, Asiatic black bears (Ursus thibetanus) are now threatened by high rates of mortality. There is an urgent need to reduce the frequency of human-bear encounters if bear populations are to be conserved. To this end, we estimated the habitats that relate to human-bear interactions by sex and season using resource selection functions (RSF). Significant seasonal differences in selection for and avoidance of areas by bears were estimated by distance-effect models with interaction terms of land cover and sex. Human-bear boundaries were delineated on the basis of defined bear-habitat edges in order to identify areas that are in most need of proactive management strategies. Asiatic black bears selected habitats in close proximity to forest edges, forest roads, rivers, and red pine and riparian forests during the peak conflict season and this was correctly predicted in our human-bear boundary maps. Our findings demonstrated that bears selected abandoned forests and agricultural lands, indicating that it should be possible to reduce animal use near human lands by restoring season-specific habitat in relatively remote areas. Habitat-based conflict mitigation may therefore provide a practical means of creating adequate separation between humans and these large carnivores.     

Moment Analysis for the Probit Model of Directional Selection

An iteration relation is given for the moments of the surviving individuals after probit directional selection if the individuals before selection are normally distributed. The proportion, mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis are expressed in closed form.     

基于动态光热作用模型的激光诱导肿瘤间质热疗中的参数选择

建立了描述温控加热方式下激光诱导肿瘤间质热疗过程中动态光热作用的二维圆柱坐标下的数学模型,采用基于网格的蒙特卡罗方法数值模拟热疗过程中激光能量在非均质生物组织内的传输过程,基于Pennes生物传热方程和Arrhen ius方程数值求解组织内的温度场和热损伤体积的变化。通过数值模拟的方法分析了激光波长、激光功率、温控范围等因素对激光诱导肿瘤间质热疗中热损伤体积的影响。数值模拟的结果表明,通过选择合适的治疗参数,可以得到各种不同大小的热疗区域。本文的结果和结论对于临床治疗方案的制定具有一定的理论指导意义。