Modelling analysis and prediction of women javelin throw results in the years 1946 – 2013

The main goals of our study of the women’s javelin throw were twofold:. first, to analyse the dynamics of female javelin throw results variability as a function of time (time period 1946-2014), second, to create a predictive model of the results during the upcoming 4 years. The study material consisted of databases covering the female track and field events obtained from the International Association of Athletics Federations. Prior to predicting the magnitude of results change dynamics in the time to follow, the adjustment of trend function to empirical data was tested using the coefficients of convergence. Phase II of the investigation consisted of the construction of predictive models. The greatest decreases in result indexes were noted in 2000 (9.4%), 2005-2006 (8.7%) and 2009 (7.4%). The trend increase was only noted in the years 2006-2008. In general, until 1998 the mean result improved by 54.6% (100% - results of 1946) whereas from 1999 through 2011 the result only increased by 1.3%. Based on data and results variability analysis it might be presumed that, in the nearest future (2015-2018), results variability will increase by approximately 9.7%. Percent improvement of javelin throw distance calculated on the basis of the 1999 raw input data is 1.4% (end of 2014).     

Malignant pleural mesothelioma incidence and survival in the Republic of Ireland 1994–2009

ObjectiveMalignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare malignancy associated with exposure to asbestos. The protracted latent period of MPM means that its incidence has continued to rise across Europe after the introduction of restrictions on asbestos use. In order to obtain a clearer indication of trends in the Republic of Ireland (ROI), incidence and survival were assessed based on all MPM cases reported since the establishment of the National Cancer Registry of Ireland (NCR).MethodsNCR recorded 337 MPM diagnoses in the ROI during 1994–2009. Survival was assessed for all cases diagnosed with adequate follow-up (n = 330). Crude and European age-standardized incidence rates were calculated for all cases and for 4-year periods. A Cox model of observed (all-cause) survival was used to generate hazard ratios for the effect of: gender; age at diagnosis; diagnosis cohort; region of residence; histological type; and tumour stage. Single P-values for the variables indicated were calculated using either a stratified log-rank test or stratified trend test.ResultsOver the study period the age-standardized MPM incidence in the ROI rose from 4.98 cases per million (cpm) to 7.24 cpm. The 1-year survival rate for all MPM cases was 29.6% (CI 24.7–34.6%). Excess mortality risk was associated with age at diagnosis (75–89 yrs vs. 55–64 yrs, HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.35–2.63, P < 0.001) and tumour stage (III vs. I HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.00–2.48, P < 0.05; IV vs. I HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.08–2.21, P < 0.05). Age showed a significant survival trend (P < 0.001) but tumour stage did not (P = 0.150). There was significant heterogeneity between the survival of patients resident in different regions (P = 0.027).ConclusionMPM incidence and mortality continued to rise in the ROI after the restrictions on asbestos use and the predictors of survival detected in this study are broadly consistent with those identified for other countries.     

Bird population changes on farmland and in woodland for the years 1967–68

Common Birds Census data from a Norfolk Farm, pertaining to two four-year periods before and after massive alterations which removed one-third of the hedgerow length and brought changes in cropping in the greatly enlarged fields, are analysed to elucidate their effects on the bird community structure and population levels.     

Length–weight relationships for five species of Chimaerids and two species of Rhinochimaerids to the west of Ireland

Length–weight regressions for five chimaerid species, Chimaera monstrosa Linnaeus, 1758, Chimaera opalescens Luchetti, Iglesias & Sellos, 2011, Hydrolagus affinis de Brito Capello, 1868, Hydrolagus pallidus Hardy & Stehmann, 1990 and Hydrolagus mirabilis Collett, 1904, and two Rhinochimaerid species, Rhinochimaera atlantica Holt & Byrne, 1909 and Harriotta raleighana Goode & Beane, 1895, are calculated from data collected during a series of deepwater surveys conducted by the Irish Marine Institute from 2006 to 2009. This work was carried out on the continental slope to the west and northwest of Ireland and the northern slope of the Porcupine bank. Samples were measured fresh at the end of each haul. Due to the fragility of the tails of many of these species, length measurements for Chimaerids were made to the pre supra caudal fin, while for Rhinochimaerids they were made to the second dorsal fin. Lengths were measured to the nearest centimetre below and weights were recorded to the nearest gram. Outliers were removed from the dataset according to difference in fits (DFFITS) (Belsley et al., Regression diagnostics: Identifying influential data and sources of collinearity, John Wiley & Sons; 1980). b values for the Chimaeridae ranged from 2.915 to 3.075, while r² values ranged from .981 to .995. b values for H. raleighana and R. atlantica were 2.764 and 3.505 and r² values were .977 and .976 respectively.     

Changes in the population of forest and dendrophilous birds of the clay semidesert in the Volga–Ural interfluve over sixty years

The modern situation of the vertebrate population in the clay semidesert of the interfluve of the Volga and Ural rivers differs significantly from that observed 50–60 years ago. This is due to the fact that reduction of ravine forests and steppe shrubs (which began in the 18th century) has extremely affected the forest and dendrophilous animals. The artificial afforestation, especially intense since the middle of the 20th century, provided surrogate “forest” sites in the region by the end of the 1970s. This helped to restore the missing species and raise the abundance and dispersal of forest and dendrophilous animals. By the beginning of the 21st century, afforestation had stopped in the region and the plantation areas had begun to shrink. Some trends in the populations of mammals and birds can be already noticed.     

Recent advances in lactoferrin research and development during the past two years (2007–2009): in lieu of a preface of the special issue lactoferrin

This is a short preface of this Special Issue Lactoferrin, it described the major points of key reporters in ‘The 9th International Conference on LF Structure, Function and Applications’ in Beijing in late Autumn 2009, and the major articles published in this issue. A panaroma and the lastest advances of lactoferrin R&D during past two years (2007–2009) was tried to extract.     

Reliability and validity of the Korean version of Morningness–Eveningness Questionnaire in adults aged 20–39 years

Morningness–Eveningness (ME) can be defined by the difference in individual diurnal preference observed from general behavioral patterns including sleep habits. The Horne & Östberg Morningness–Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ) has been used for classifying ME types. We examined the reliability of a Korean version of the MEQ (Korean MEQ) and verified its validity by comparing responses on the Korean MEQ to objectively-recorded sleep–wake rhythms. After translating and back translating the MEQ from English into Korean, we examined the internal consistency of 19 items of the Korean MEQ in 91 subjects, and the test–retest reliability in 21 subjects who took the Korean MEQ twice, 4 weeks apart. The Korean MEQ was then administered to 1022 young adult subjects. A subset of 46 morning, neither, and evening type subjects took part in a validation study in which their rest-activity timing was collected by actigraphy for 7 days. Cosinor analyses on these data were done to obtain the acrophase and amplitude of the sleep–wake rhythm. Cronbach’s alpha of the total scores from the Korean MEQ was 0.77, and the test–retest reliability intra-class correlation coefficient was 0.90 (p?<?0.0001). There was a significant negative correlation between Korean MEQ score and reported sleep–wake timing among the entire cohort (p?<?0.0001). There was a significant difference in bedtime and wake time (on both work and free days), and in the mean sleep–wake rhythm acrophase, between ME types (p?<?0.01). In this study, the validity of the Korean MEQ was verified by illustrating the difference in acrophases of the sleep–wake rhythm between the ME types in young adults.