Projecting demographic responses to climate change: adult and juvenile survival respond differently to direct and indirect effects of weather in a passerine population

Few studies have quantitatively projected changes in demography in response to climate change, yet doing so can provide important insights into the processes that may lead to population declines and changes in species distributions. Using a long‐term mark‐recapture data set, we examined the influence of multiple direct and indirect effects of weather on adult and juvenile survival for a population of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in California. We found evidence for a positive, direct effect of winter temperature on adult survival, and a positive, indirect effect of prior rainy season precipitation on juvenile survival, which was consistent with an effect of precipitation on food availability during the breeding season. We used these relationships, and climate projections of significantly warmer and slightly drier winter weather by the year 2100, to project a significant increase in mean adult survival (12–17%) and a slight decrease in mean juvenile survival (4–6%) under the B1 and A2 climate change scenarios. Together with results from previous studies on seasonal fecundity and postfledging survival in this population, we integrated these results in a population model and projected increases in the population growth rate under both climate change scenarios. Our results underscore the importance of considering multiple, direct, and indirect effects of weather throughout the annual cycle, as well as differences in the responses of each life stage to climate change. Projecting demographic responses to climate change can identify not only how populations will be affected by climate change but also indicate the demographic process(es) and specific mechanisms that may be responsible. This information can, in turn, inform climate change adaptation plans, help prioritize future research, and identify where limited conservation resources will be most effectively and efficiently spent.     

The potential for indirect effects between co‐flowering plants via shared pollinators depends on resource abundance,accessibility and relatedness

Co‐flowering plant species commonly share flower visitors, and thus have the potential to influence each other's pollination. In this study we analysed 750 quantitative plant–pollinator networks from 28 studies representing diverse biomes worldwide. We show that the potential for one plant species to influence another indirectly via shared pollinators was greater for plants whose resources were more abundant (higher floral unit number and nectar sugar content) and more accessible. The potential indirect influence was also stronger between phylogenetically closer plant species and was independent of plant geographic origin (native vs. non‐native). The positive effect of nectar sugar content and phylogenetic proximity was much more accentuated for bees than for other groups. Consequently, the impact of these factors depends on the pollination mode of plants, e.g. bee or fly pollinated. Our findings may help predict which plant species have the greatest importance in the functioning of plant–pollination networks.     

Temperature and population density: interactional effects of environmental factors on phenotypic plasticity,immune defenses,and disease resistance in an insect pest

Temperature and crowding are key environmental factors mediating the transmission and epizooty of infectious disease in ectotherm animals. The host physiology may be altered in a temperature‐dependent manner and thus affects the pathogen development and course of diseases within an individual and host population, or the transmission rates (or infectivity) of pathogens shift linearly with the host population density. To our understanding, the knowledge of interactive and synergistic effects of temperature and population density on the host–pathogen system is limited. Here, we tested the interactional effects of these environmental factors on phenotypic plasticity, immune defenses, and disease resistance in the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis. Upon egg hatching, caterpillars were reared in thermostat‐controlled chambers in a 2 × 4 factorial design: density (1 or 8 caterpillars/pot) and temperature (20, 24, 28, or 32°C). Of the immune defenses assessed, encapsulation response was directly affected by none of the environmental factors; capsule melanization increased with temperature in both lone‐ and group‐reared caterpillars, although the lone‐reared ones presented the most evident response, and hemocyte numbers decreased with temperature regardless of the population density. Temperature, but not population density, affected considerably the time from inoculation to death of velvetbean caterpillar. Thus, velvetbean caterpillars succumbed to Anticarsia gemmatalis multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AgMNPV) more quickly at higher temperatures than at lower temperatures. As hypothesized, temperature likely affected caterpillars' movement rates, and thus the contact between conspecifics, which in turn affected the phenotypic expression of group‐reared caterpillars. Our results suggest that environmental factors, mainly temperature, strongly affect both the course of disease in velvetbean caterpillar population and its defenses against pathogens. As a soybean pest, velvetbean caterpillar may increase its damage on soybean fields under a scenario of global warming as caterpillars may reach the developmental resistance faster, and thus decrease their susceptibility to biological control by AgMNPV.     

A review and meta‐analysis of the effects of climate change on Holarctic mountain and upland bird populations

Mountain regions are globally important areas for biodiversity but are subject to multiple human‐induced threats, including climate change, which has been more severe at higher elevations. We reviewed evidence for impacts of climate change on Holarctic mountain bird populations in terms of physiology, phenology, trophic interactions, demography and observed and projected distribution shifts, including effects of other factors that interact with climate change. We developed an objective classification of high‐elevation, mountain specialist and generalist species, based on the proportion of their breeding range occurring in mountain regions. Our review found evidence of responses of mountain bird populations to climate (extreme weather events, temperature, rainfall and snow) and environmental (i.e. land use) change, but we know little about either the underlying mechanisms or the synergistic effects of climate and land use. Long‐term studies assessing reproductive success or survival of mountain birds in relation to climate change were rare. Few studies have considered shifts in elevational distribution over time and a meta‐analysis did not find a consistent direction in elevation change. A meta‐analysis carried out on future projections of distribution shifts suggested that birds whose breeding distributions are largely restricted to mountains are likely to be more negatively impacted than other species. Adaptation responses to climate change rely mostly on managing and extending current protected areas for both species already present, and for expected colonizing species that are losing habitat and climate space at lower elevation. However, developing effective management actions requires an improvement in the current knowledge of mountain species ecology, in the quality of climate data and in understanding the role of interacting factors. Furthermore, the evidence was mostly based on widespread species rather than mountain specialists. Scientists should provide valuable tools to assess the status of mountain birds, for example through the development of a mountain bird population index, and policy‐makers should influence legislation to develop efficient agri‐environment schemes and forestry practices for mountain birds, as well as to regulate leisure activities at higher elevations.