Spreading patterns of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic

We investigate the dynamics of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1/S-OIV) pandemic by analyzing data obtained from World Health Organization containing the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases of infections--by country--in a period of 69 days, from 26 April to 3 July, 2009. Specifically, we find evidence of exponential growth in the total number of confirmed cases and linear growth in the number of countries with confirmed cases. We also find that, i) at early stages, the cumulative distribution of cases among countries exhibits linear behavior on log-log scale, being well approximated by a power law decay; ii) for larger times, the cumulative distribution presents a systematic curvature on log-log scale, indicating a gradual change to lognormal behavior. Finally, we compare these empirical findings with the predictions of a simple stochastic model. Our results could help to select more realistic models of the dynamics of influenza-type pandemics.     

Complex patterns of human antisera reactivity to novel 2009 H1N1 and historical H1N1 influenza strains

Background

During the 2009 influenza pandemic, individuals over the age of 60 had the lowest incidence of infection with approximately 25% of these people having pre-existing, cross-reactive antibodies to novel 2009 H1N1 influenza isolates. It was proposed that older people had pre-existing antibodies induced by previous 1918-like virus infection(s) that cross-reacted to novel H1N1 strains.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using antisera collected from a cohort of individuals collected before the second wave of novel H1N1 infections, only a minority of individuals with 1918 influenza specific antibodies also demonstrated hemagglutination-inhibition activity against the novel H1N1 influenza. In this study, we examined human antisera collected from individuals that ranged between the ages of 1 month and 90 years to determine the profile of seropositive influenza immunity to viruses representing H1N1 antigenic eras over the past 100 years. Even though HAI titers to novel 2009 H1N1 and the 1918 H1N1 influenza viruses were positively associated, the association was far from perfect, particularly for the older and younger age groups.

Conclusions/Significance

Therefore, there may be a complex set of immune responses that are retained in people infected with seasonal H1N1 that can contribute to the reduced rates of H1N1 influenza infection in older populations.     

Inside the outbreak of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1)v virus in Mexico

Background

Influenza viruses pose a threat to human health because of their potential to cause global disease. Between mid March and mid April a pandemic influenza A virus emerged in Mexico. This report details 202 cases of infection of humans with the 2009 influenza A virus (H1N1)v which occurred in Mexico City as well as the spread of the virus throughout the entire country.

Methodology and Findings

From May 1st to May 5th nasopharyngeal swabs, derived from 751 patients, were collected at 220 outpatient clinics and 28 hospitals distributed throughout Mexico City. Analysis of samples using real time RT-PCR revealed that 202 patients out of the 751 subjects (26.9%) were confirmed to be infected with the new virus. All confirmed cases of human infection with the strain influenza (H1N1)v suffered respiratory symptoms. The greatest number of confirmed cases during the outbreak of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1)v were seen in neighbourhoods on the northeast side of Mexico City including Iztapalapa, Gustavo A. Madero, Iztacalco, and Tlahuac which are the most populated areas in Mexico City. Using these data, together with data reported by the Mexican Secretariat of Health (MSH) to date, we plot the course of influenza (H1N1)v activity throughout Mexico.

Conclusions

Our data, which is backed up by MSH data, show that the greatest numbers of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) cases were seen in the most populated areas. We speculate on conditions in Mexico which may have sparked this flu pandemic, the first in 41 years. We accept the hypothesis that high population density and a mass gathering which took in Iztapalapa contributed to the rapid spread of the disease which developed in three peaks of activity throughout the Country.     

Environmental factors contributing to the spread of H5N1 avian influenza in mainland China

Background

Since late 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks caused by infection with H5N1 virus has led to the deaths of millions of poultry and more than 10 thousands of wild birds, and as of 18-March 2008, at least 373 laboratory-confirmed human infections with 236 fatalities, have occurred. The unrestrained worldwide spread of this disease has caused great anxiety about the potential of another global pandemic. However, the effect of environmental factors influencing the spread of HPAI H5N1 virus is unclear.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A database including incident dates and locations was developed for 128 confirmed HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in poultry and wild birds, as well as 21 human cases in mainland China during 2004–2006. These data, together with information on wild bird migration, poultry densities, and environmental variables (water bodies, wetlands, transportation routes, main cities, precipitation and elevation), were integrated into a Geographical Information System (GIS). A case-control design was used to identify the environmental factors associated with the incidence of the disease. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that minimal distance to the nearest national highway, annual precipitation and the interaction between minimal distance to the nearest lake and wetland, were important predictive environmental variables for the risk of HPAI. A risk map was constructed based on these factors.

Conclusions/Significance

Our study indicates that environmental factors contribute to the spread of the disease. The risk map can be used to target countermeasures to stop further spread of the HPAI H5N1 at its source.     

Molecular character of influenza A/H1N1 2009: Implications for spread and control

The world is experiencing a pandemic of influenza that emerged in March 2009, due to a novel strain designated influenza A/H1N1 2009. This strain is closest in molecular sequence to swine influenza viruses, but differs from all previously known influenza by a minimum of 6.1%, and from prior “seasonal” H1N1 by 27.2%, giving it great potential for widespread human infection. While spread into India was delayed for two months by an aggressive interdiction program, since 1 August 2009 most cases in India have been indigenous. H1N1 2009 has differentially struck younger patients who are naïve susceptibles to its antigenic subtype, while sparing those >60 who have crossreactive antibody from prior experience with influenza decades ago and the 1977 “swine flu” vaccine distributed in the United States. It also appears to more severely affect pregnant women. It emanated from a single source in central Mexico, but its precise geographical and circumstantial origins, from either Eurasia or the Americas, remain uncertain. While currently a mild pandemic by the standard of past pandemics, the seriousness of H1N1 2009 especially among children should not be underestimated. There is potential for the virus, which continues to adapt to humans, to change over time into a more severe etiologic agent by any of several foreseeable mutations. Mass acceptance of the novel H1N1 2009 vaccine worldwide will be essential to its control. Having spread globally in a few months, affecting millions of people, it is likely to remain circulating in the human population for a decade or more.     

Inefficient transmission of H5N1 influenza viruses in a ferret contact model

The abilities to infect and transmit efficiently among humans are essential for a novel influenza A virus to cause a pandemic. To evaluate the pandemic potential of widely disseminated H5N1 influenza viruses, a ferret contact model using experimental groups comprised of one inoculated ferret and two contact ferrets was used to study the transmissibility of four human H5N1 viruses isolated from 2003 to 2006. The effects of viral pathogenicity and receptor binding specificity (affinity to synthetic sialosaccharides with alpha2,3 or alpha2,6 linkages) on transmissibility were assessed. A/Vietnam/1203/04 and A/Vietnam/JP36-2/05 viruses, which possess "avian-like" alpha2,3-linked sialic acid (SA) receptor specificity, caused neurological symptoms and death in ferrets inoculated with 10(3) 50% tissue culture infectious doses. A/Hong Kong/213/03 and A/Turkey/65-596/06 viruses, which show binding affinity for "human-like" alpha2,6-linked SA receptors in addition to their affinity for alpha2,3-linked SA receptors, caused mild clinical symptoms and were not lethal to the ferrets. No transmission of A/Vietnam/1203/04 or A/Turkey/65-596/06 virus was detected. One contact ferret developed neutralizing antibodies to A/Hong Kong/213/03 but did not exhibit any clinical signs or detectable virus shedding. In two groups, one of two na?ve contact ferrets had detectable virus after 6 to 8 days when housed together with the A/Vietnam/JP36-2/05 virus-inoculated ferrets. Infected contact ferrets showed severe clinical signs, although little or no virus was detected in nasal washes. This limited virus shedding explained the absence of secondary transmission from the infected contact ferret to the other na?ve ferret that were housed together. Our results suggest that despite their receptor binding affinity, circulating H5N1 viruses retain molecular determinants that restrict their spread among mammalian species.     

In vivo efficacy of Ingavirin against pandemic A (H1N1/09)v influenza virus

Ingavirin was shown to be efficient in inhibition of the pandemic influenza virus strains A/California/04/2009 (H1N1)v, A/California/07/2009 (H1N1)v, A/Moscow/225/2009 (H1N1)v and A/Moscow/226/2009 (H1N1)v. as well as the influenza virus strain A/Aichi/2/68 (H3N2) in the lungs of the infected mice. After oral administration of Ingavirin the titers of the influenza virus strains in the lung homogenates lowered.     

Protective activity of Ingavirin in experimental lethal influenza due to pandemic influenza virus A (H1N1)v in albino mice

Despite obvious success in the vaccine development and chemotherapy of influenza, it remains a poorly controlled infection leading to emergence of new pandemic variants of the virus with high morbidity and mortality. We investigated the protective activity of Ingavirin against the lethal influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infection on albino mice. Oral use of Ingavirin resulted in sharp decreasing of the mortality (index of protection up to 57%), slight decreasing of the infectious titer of the virus in the lungs (up to 40-fold), normalizing of the body weight dynamics and the lung tissue structure vs. the placebo-treated control. The degree of the bronchial epithelium damage was also strongly decreased. The results allow to consider Ingavirin as an effective antiviral against the current pandemic influenza virus.     

Cytokine response patterns in severe pandemic 2009 H1N1 and seasonal influenza among hospitalized adults

Background

Studying cytokine/chemokine responses in severe influenza infections caused by different virus subtypes may improve understanding on pathogenesis.

Methods

Adults hospitalized for laboratory-confirmed seasonal and pandemic 2009 A/H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza were studied. Plasma concentrations of 13 cytokines/chemokines were measured at presentation and then serially, using cytometric-bead-array with flow-cytometry and ELISA. PBMCs from influenza patients were studied for cytokine/chemokine expression using ex-vivo culture (Whole Blood Assay,±PHA/LPS stimulation). Clinical variables were prospectively recorded and analyzed.

Results

63 pH1N1 and 53 seasonal influenza patients were studied. pH1N1 patients were younger (mean±S.D. 42.8±19.2 vs 70.5±16.7 years), and fewer had comorbidities. Respiratory/cardiovascular complications were common in both groups (71.4% vs 81.1%), although severe pneumonia with hypoxemia (54.0% vs 28.3%) and ICU admissions (25.4% vs 1.9%) were more frequent with pH1N1. Hyperactivation of the proinflammatory cytokines IL-6, CXCL8/IL-8, CCL2/MCP-1 and sTNFR-1 was found in pH1N1 pneumonia (2–15 times normal) and in complicated seasonal influenza, but not in milder pH1N1 infections. The adaptive-immunity (Th1/Th17)-related CXCL10/IP-10, CXCL9/MIG and IL-17A however, were markedly suppressed in severe pH1N1 pneumonia (2–27 times lower than seasonal influenza; P−values<0.01). This pattern was further confirmed with serial measurements. Hypercytokinemia tended to be sustained in pH1N1 pneumonia, associated with a slower viral clearance [PCR-negativity: day 3–4, 55% vs 85%; day 6–7, 67% vs 100%]. Elevated proinflammatory cytokines, particularly IL-6, predicted ICU admission (adjusted OR 12.6, 95%CI 2.6–61.5, per log₁₀unit increase; P = 0.002), and correlated with fever, tachypnoea, deoxygenation, and length-of-stay (Spearman''s rho, P-values<0.01) in influenza infections. PBMCs in seasonal influenza patients were activated and expressed cytokines ex vivo (e.g. IL-6, CXCL8/IL-8, CCL2/MCP-1, CXCL10/IP-10, CXCL9/MIG); their ‘responsiveness’ to stimuli was shown to change dynamically during the illness course.

Conclusions

A hyperactivated proinflammatory, but suppressed adaptive-immunity (Th1/Th17)-related cytokine response pattern was found in severe pH1N1 pneumonia, different from seasonal influenza. Cytokine/immune-dysregulation may be important in its pathogenesis.     

Pathogenesis and transmission of triple-reassortant swine H1N1 influenza viruses isolated before the 2009 H1N1 pandemic

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus represents the greatest incidence of human infection with an influenza virus of swine origin to date. Moreover, triple-reassortant swine (TRS) H1N1 viruses, which share similar host and lineage origins with 2009 H1N1 viruses, have been responsible for sporadic human cases since 2005. Similar to 2009 H1N1 viruses, TRS viruses are capable of causing severe disease in previously healthy individuals and frequently manifest with gastrointestinal symptoms; however, their ability to cause severe disease has not been extensively studied. Here, we evaluated the pathogenicity and transmissibility of two TRS viruses associated with disease in humans in the ferret model. TRS and 2009 H1N1 viruses exhibited comparable viral titers and histopathologies following virus infection and were similarly unable to transmit efficiently via respiratory droplets in the ferret model. Utilizing TRS and 2009 H1N1 viruses, we conducted extensive hematologic and blood serum analyses on infected ferrets to identify lymphohematopoietic parameters associated with mild to severe influenza virus infection. Following H1N1 or H5N1 influenza virus infection, ferrets were found to recapitulate several laboratory abnormalities previously documented with human disease, furthering the utility of the ferret model for the assessment of influenza virus pathogenicity.     

Structural characterization of the 1918 influenza virus H1N1 neuraminidase

Influenza virus neuraminidase (NA) plays a crucial role in facilitating the spread of newly synthesized virus in the host and is an important target for controlling disease progression. The NA crystal structure from the 1918 "Spanish flu" (A/Brevig Mission/1/18 H1N1) and that of its complex with zanamivir (Relenza) at 1.65-A and 1.45-A resolutions, respectively, corroborated the successful expression of correctly folded NA tetramers in a baculovirus expression system. An additional cavity adjacent to the substrate-binding site is observed in N1, compared to N2 and N9 NAs, including H5N1. This cavity arises from an open conformation of the 150 loop (Gly147 to Asp151) and appears to be conserved among group 1 NAs (N1, N4, N5, and N8). It closes upon zanamivir binding. Three calcium sites were identified, including a novel site that may be conserved in N1 and N4. Thus, these high-resolution structures, combined with our recombinant expression system, provide new opportunities to augment the limited arsenal of therapeutics against influenza.     

Measured voluntary avoidance behaviour during the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic

Managing infectious disease is among the foremost challenges for public health policy. Interpersonal contacts play a critical role in infectious disease transmission, and recent advances in epidemiological theory suggest a central role for adaptive human behaviour with respect to changing contact patterns. However, theoretical studies cannot answer the following question: are individual responses to disease of sufficient magnitude to shape epidemiological dynamics and infectious disease risk? We provide empirical evidence that Americans voluntarily reduced their time spent in public places during the 2009 A/H1N1 swine flu, and that these behavioural shifts were of a magnitude capable of reducing the total number of cases. We simulate 10 years of epidemics (2003–2012) based on mixing patterns derived from individual time-use data to show that the mixing patterns in 2009 yield the lowest number of total infections relative to if the epidemic had occurred in any of the other nine years. The World Health Organization and other public health bodies have emphasized an important role for ‘distancing’ or non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our empirical results suggest that neglect for voluntary avoidance behaviour in epidemic models may overestimate the public health benefits of public social distancing policies.     

达菲药物对H1N1病毒作用研究

甲型H1N1病毒在全世界范围内爆发,引起人们广泛关注,而目前疫苗和新的药物正处于研发阶段,与此同时该病毒神经氨酸酶蛋白序列不断被报道。达菲作为治疗H1N1病毒的药物被患者广泛使用。通过同源性建模的方法比较神经氨酸酶的变异情况,从而预测达菲药物对变异前后的作用效果评价。通过AUTODOCK计算结合能,发现达菲药物与神经氨酸酶的结合能维持在2.4～4.2 kJ/mol范围内,动力学常数最高值达到18.2 mM。证明达菲药物对抑制病毒进入寄主细胞有明显效果。     

Protection against divergent influenza H1N1 virus by a centralized influenza hemagglutinin

Influenza poses a persistent worldwide threat to the human population. As evidenced by the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, current vaccine technologies are unable to respond rapidly to this constantly diverging pathogen. We tested the utility of adenovirus (Ad) vaccines expressing centralized consensus influenza antigens. Ad vaccines were produced within 2 months and protected against influenza in mice within 3 days of vaccination. Ad vaccines were able to protect at doses as low as 10(7) virus particles/kg indicating that approximately 1,000 human doses could be rapidly generated from standard Ad preparations. To generate broadly cross-reactive immune responses, centralized consensus antigens were constructed against H1 influenza and against H1 through H5 influenza. Twenty full-length H1 HA sequences representing the main branches of the H1 HA phylogenetic tree were used to create a synthetic centralized gene, HA1-con. HA1-con minimizes the degree of sequence dissimilarity between the vaccine and existing circulating viruses. The centralized H1 gene, HA1-con, induced stronger immune responses and better protection against mismatched virus challenges as compared to two wildtype H1 genes. HA1-con protected against three genetically diverse lethal influenza challenges. When mice were challenged with 1934 influenza A/PR/8/34, HA1-con protected 100% of mice while vaccine generated from 2009 A/TX/05/09 only protected 40%. Vaccination with 1934 A/PR/8/34 and 2009 A/TX/05/09 protected 60% and 20% against 1947 influenza A/FM/1/47, respectively, whereas 80% of mice vaccinated with HA1-con were protected. Notably, 80% of mice challenged with 2009 swine flu isolate A/California/4/09 were protected by HA1-con vaccination. These data show that HA1-con in Ad has potential as a rapid and universal vaccine for H1N1 influenza viruses.     

Adaption of seasonal H1N1 influenza virus in mice

The experimental infection of a mouse lung with influenza A virus has proven to be an invaluable model for studying the mechanisms of viral adaptation and virulence. The mouse adaption of human influenza A virus can result in mutations in the HA and other proteins, which is associated with increased virulence in mouse lungs. In this study, a mouse-adapted seasonal H1N1 virus was obtained through serial lung-to-lung passages and had significantly increased virulence and pathogenicity in mice. Genetic analysis indicated that the increased virulence of the mouse-adapted virus was attributed to incremental acquisition of three mutations in the HA protein (T89I, N125T, and D221G). However, the mouse adaption of influenza A virus did not change the specificity and affinity of receptor binding and the pH-dependent membrane fusion of HA, as well as the in vitro replication in MDCK cells. Notably, infection with the mouse adapted virus induced severe lymphopenia and modulated cytokine and chemokine responses in mice. Apparently, mouse adaption of human influenza A virus may change the ability to replicate in mouse lungs, which induces strong immune responses and inflammation in mice. Therefore, our findings may provide new insights into understanding the mechanisms underlying the mouse adaption and pathogenicity of highly virulent influenza viruses.     

Morphological changes in lung tissue of victims associated with the 2009 A H1N1/v09 influenza pandemic in Colombia

Introduction. Influenza is an acute respiratory infection that may be seasonal or pandemic. In 2009 The World Health Organization (WHO) declared an influenza pandemia; 3,876 cases and 239 deaths were reported in Colombia. Objective. The morphological changes in lung tissues associated with virus infection H1N1/v09 were described from autopsied victims. Materials and methods. Seventy-five cases were diagnosed by RT-PCR for influenza A H1N1/v09, of which the lungs of 20 were selected for morphological study by light microscopy, optical microscopy, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy and immunohistochemistry. Results. Of the 75 cases, 83% had viral pneumonitis and 17% alveolitis. Complications included intra-alveolar hemorrhage (66%), edema (89%), diffuse alveolar damage (2%), and bacterial co-infection (32%). Morphological changes were as follows: destruction of the alveolar epithelium and interstitium, edema, macrophages with vacuolated cytoplasm,and infiltration of polymorphonuclear leukocytes in the alveolar lumen and interstitium, vacuolization cytoplasmic type I pneumocytes and electronedense bodies in cellular debris in the alveolar lumen, and immunoreactivity of viral antigens in bronchiolar epithelial cells and alveolar infiltrate. Conclusion. The low percentage of bacterial co-infection observed in these cases was a prominent feature, and suggested that the fatal result was probably not associated with secondary bacterial disease (Indicated by previous reports). The tissue lesions were attributed to tissue damage due to viral lesion, as well as the cellular and humoral inflammatory response associated with infiltration by polymorphonucleocytes and macrophages in the interstitium and alveolar lumen.