Linking habitat modification to catastrophic shifts and vegetation patterns in bogs

Paleoecological studies indicate that peatland ecosystems may exhibit bistability. This would mean that these systems are resilient to gradual changes in climate, until environmental thresholds are passed. Then, ecosystem stability is lost and rapid shifts in surface and vegetation structure at landscape scale occur. Another remarkable feature is the commonly observed self-organized spatial vegetation patterning, such as string-flark and maze patterns. Bistability and spatial self-organization may be mechanistically linked, the crucial mechanism being scale-dependent (locally positive and longer-range negative) feedback between vegetation and the peatland environment. Focusing on bogs, a previous model study shows that nutrient accumulation by vascular plants can induce such scale-dependent feedback driving pattern formation. However, stability of bog microforms such as hummocks and hollows has been attributed to different local interactions between Sphagnum, vascular plants, and the bog environment. Here we analyze both local and longer-range interactions in bogs to investigate the possible contribution of these different interactions to vegetation patterning and stability. This is done by a literature review, and subsequently these findings are incorporated in the original model. When Sphagnum and encompassing local interactions are included in this model, the boundaries between vegetation types become sharper and also the parameter region of bistability drastically increases. These results imply that vegetation patterning and stability of bogs could be synergistically governed by local and longer-range interactions. Studying the relative effect of these interactions is therefore suggested to be an important component of future predictions on the response of peatland ecosystems to climatic changes.     

Vulnerability of mires under climate change: implications for nature conservation and climate change adaptation

Wetlands in general and mires in particular belong to the most important terrestrial carbon stocks globally. Mires (i.e. bogs, transition bogs and fens) are assumed to be especially vulnerable to climate change because they depend on specific, namely cool and humid, climatic conditions. In this paper, we use distribution data of the nine mire types to be found in Austria and habitat distribution models for four IPCC scenarios to evaluate climate change induced risks for mire ecosystems within the 21st century. We found that climatic factors substantially contribute to explain the current distribution of all nine Austrian mire ecosystem types. Summer temperature proved to be the most important predictor for the majority of mire ecosystems. Precipitation—mostly spring and summer precipitation sums—was influential for some mire ecosystem types which depend partly or entirely on ground water supply (e.g. fens). We found severe climate change induced risks for all mire ecosystems, with rain-fed bog ecosystems being most threatened. Differences between scenarios are moderate for the mid-21st century, but become more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century, with near total loss of climate space projected for some ecosystem types (bogs, quagmires) under severe climate change. Our results imply that even under minimum expected, i.e. inevitable climate change, climatic risks for mires in Austria will be considerable. Nevertheless, the pronounced differences in projected habitat loss between moderate and severe climate change scenarios indicate that limiting future warming will likely contribute to enhance long-term survival of mire ecosystems, and to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions from decomposing peat. Effectively stopping and reversing the deterioration of mire ecosystems caused by conventional threats can be regarded as a contribution to climate change mitigation. Because hydrologically intact mires are more resilient to climatic changes, this would also maintain the nature conservation value of mires, and help to reduce the severe climatic risks to which most Austrian mire ecosystems may be exposed in the 2nd half of the 21st century according to IPCC scenarios.     

Raised peat bog development and possible responses to environmental changes during the mid- to late-Holocene. Can the palaeoecological record be used to predict the nature and response of raised peat bogs to future climate change?

Palaeoecological analyses of raised peat bog deposits in northwest Europe show the naturalness, antiquity and robust response of these ecosystems to environmental changes from c. 7800 years ago to the present. A review of the techniques used to identify these long-term features is presented and the role of climate change, autogenic change processes and human disturbance is discussed. Millennial records of vegetation changes recorded in peat deposits demonstrate the response (often rapid) of raised peat bog vegetation to climatic changes during the mid-Holocene, Bronze Age/Iron Age transition and the Little Ice Age. Greenhouse warming scenarios exceed the reconstructed Holocene record of climatic changes (c. the last 11, 500 years), and bog-water tables may fall considerably. A combination of centennial palaeoecological analyses of bogs affected by human disturbance and experimental manipulations have been used as analogues for the potential response of raised peat bog vegetation to these changes. These show that possible greenhouse gas climate forcing scenarios may exceed the ability of Sphagnum- dominated raised peat bogs to respond to projected increases in summer temperature and decreases in summer precipitation. In combination with increasing N deposition, a loss of their Sphagnum-rich vegetation and increases in the abundance of vascular plants could occur on decadal timescales.     

Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid‐latitude dry regions

Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid‐latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow‐poor to wet, cold and snow‐rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow‐poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow‐richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water‐limitation and a longer snow‐free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.     

Peatland distibution along a north-south transect in the Mackenzie River Basin in relation to climatic and environmental gradients

Climate is a major factor affecting the development and form of peatlands, as well as the distribution of individual bryophyte species. This paper examines the climatic and ecological gradients affecting the distribution of peatland types along a north-south gradient in the Mackenzie River Basin. Based on a TWINSPAN analysis of bryophyte abundance from 82 peatlands in the Mackenzie River Basin, seven peatland types, two with southerly geographical distributions are recognized. In the Mackenzie River Basin, such local factors as surface water chemistry, pH, and solute concentration as well as height above the water table play a significant role in determinining bryophyte species distributions. Climate is secondary. Amongst the climatic variables, precipitation, length of the growing season, and annual temperature are the most signifcant. The seven peatland groups are: widespread poor fens; peat plateaus with thermokarst pools, low-Boreal bogs; bogs and peat plateus without thermokarst pools; low-Boreal dry poor fens; wet moderate-rich fens; and wet extreme-rich fens.     

Predicting Novel Riparian Ecosystems in a Changing Climate

Rapid changes in global climate are likely to alter species assemblages and environmental characteristics resulting in novel ecosystems. The ability to predict characteristics of future ecosystems is crucial for environmental planning and the development of effective climate change adaptation strategies. This paper presents an approach for envisioning novel ecosystems in future climates. Focusing on riparian ecosystems, we use qualitative process models to predict likely abiotic and biotic changes in four case study systems: tropical coastal floodplains, temperate streams, high mountain streams and urban riparian zones. We concentrate on functional groups rather than individual species and consider dispersal constraints and the capacity for genetic adaptation. Our scenarios suggest that climatic changes will reduce indigenous diversity, facilitate non-indigenous invasion (especially C4 graminoids), increase fragmentation and result in simplified and less distinctive riparian ecosystems. Compared to models based on biota-environment correlations, process models built on mechanistic understanding (like Bayesian belief networks) are more likely to remain valid under novel climatic conditions. We posit that predictions based on species’ functional traits will facilitate regional comparisons and can highlight effects of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Ecosystems that have experienced similar modification to that expected under climate change (for example, altered flow regimes of regulated rivers) can be used to help inform and evaluate predictions. By manipulating attributes of these system models (for example, magnitude of climatic changes or adaptation strategies used), implications of various scenarios can be assessed and optimal management strategies identified.     

Holocene Carbon Accumulation of Fen Peatlands in Boreal Western Canada: A Complex Ecosystem Response to Climate Variation and Disturbance

Understanding the long-term ecological dynamics of northern peatlands is essential for assessment of the possible responses and feedbacks of these carbon-rich ecosystems to climate change and natural disturbance. I used high-resolution macrofossil and lithological analyses of a fen peatland in western Canada to infer the Holocene developmental history of the peatland, to document the temporal pattern of long-term peat accumulation, and to investigate ecosystems responses to climate changes in terms of species composition and carbon accumulation. The peatland has been dominated by sedges and brown mosses during its 10,000-year history, despite interruption by tephra deposition. Peat accumulation rates vary by more than an order of magnitude and decline from 5500 to 1300 cal BP, resulting in a convex depth–age curve, which contrasts with the carbon accumulation patterns documented for oceanic peatlands. The synthesis of regional data from continental western Canada indicates that fens tend to accumulate more carbon than bogs of the same ages. These data suggest that the carbon sink potential of northern peatlands has varied dramatically in the past, so estimates of the present and projected carbon sink strengths of these peatlands need to take this temporal variation into consideration. Widespread slowdown of peat accumulation over the last 4000 years may have resulted from climate cooling in northern latitudes after the Holocene insolation maximum. The findings indicate that long-term peatland dynamics are modified by many local and regional factors and that gradual environmental change may be capable of triggering abrupt shifts and jumps in ecosystem states.     

Breeding bird populations of Irish peatlands

Capsule Peatlands are very important habitats for birds despite low species diversity.

Aims To describe the variation in breeding bird populations that occur on different types of Irish peatlands and their associated habitat characteristics.

Methods Bird abundance and diversity were compared between four peatland habitat types (fens, raised bogs, Atlantic blanket bogs and montane blanket bogs) at 12 study sites using transects. Various measures of habitat quality were also taken at each location.

Results Only 21 species were recorded during the study, with Meadow Pipit Anthus pratensis and Sky Lark Alauda arvensis accounting for over 80% of all birds recorded. Fens had greater bird species diversity and densities than the other three peatland types. Raised bogs, Atlantic blanket bogs and montane blanket bogs were very similar in terms of their avian diversity. Each of the recorded bird species was associated with different aspects of the peatland habitat.

Conclusion This study shows that despite the relatively low avian species diversity of Irish peatlands, they are of enormous conservation value due to the presence of species of high conservation concern such as Willow Ptarmigan (Red Grouse) Lagopus lagopus and Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata.     

Persistent versus transient tree encroachment of temperate peat bogs: effects of climate warming and drought events

Peatlands store approximately 30% of global soil carbon, most in moss‐dominated bogs. Future climatic changes, such as changes in precipitation patterns and warming, are expected to affect peat bog vegetation composition and thereby its long‐term carbon sequestration capacity. Theoretical work suggests that an episode of rapid environmental change is more likely to trigger transitions to alternative ecosystem states than a gradual, but equally large, change in conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore the impacts of drought events and increased temperature on vegetation composition of temperate peat bogs. We analyzed the consequences of six patterns of summer drought events combined with five temperature scenarios to test whether an open peat bog dominated by moss (Sphagnum) could shift to a tree‐dominated state. Unexpectedly, neither a gradual decrease in the amount of summer precipitation nor the occurrence of a number of extremely dry summers in a row could shift the moss‐dominated peat bog permanently into a tree‐dominated peat bog. The increase in tree biomass during drought events was unable to trigger positive feedbacks that keep the ecosystem in a tree‐dominated state after a return to previous ‘normal’ rainfall conditions. In contrast, temperature increases from 1 °C onward already shifted peat bogs into tree‐dominated ecosystems. In our simulations, drought events facilitated tree establishment, but temperature determined how much tree biomass could develop. Our results suggest that under current climatic conditions, peat bog vegetation is rather resilient to drought events, but very sensitive to temperature increases, indicating that future warming is likely to trigger persistent vegetation shifts.     

Rewiring of peatland plant–microbe networks outpaces species turnover

Enviro–climatic changes are thought to be causing alterations in ecosystem processes through shifts in plant and microbial communities; however, how links between plant and microbial communities change with enviro–climatic change is likely to be less straightforward but may be fundamental for many ecological processes. To address this, we assessed the composition of the plant community and the prokaryotic community – using amplicon-based sequencing – of three European peatlands that were distinct in enviro–climatic conditions. Bipartite networks were used to construct site-specific plant–prokaryote co-occurrence networks. Our data show that between sites, plant and prokaryotic communities differ and that turnover in interactions between the communities was complex. Essentially, turnover in plant–microbial interactions is much faster than turnover in the respective communities. Our findings suggest that network rewiring does largely result from novel or different interactions between species common to all realised networks. Hence, turnover in network composition is largely driven by the establishment of new interactions between a core community of plants and microorganisms that are shared among all sites. Taken together our results indicate that plant–microbe associations are context dependent, and that changes in enviro–climatic conditions will likely lead to network rewiring. Integrating turnover in plant–microbe interactions into studies that assess the impact of enviro–climatic change on peatland ecosystems is essential to understand ecosystem dynamics and must be combined with studies on the impact of these changes on ecosystem processes.     

Some critical questions concerning the restorability of damaged raised bogs

Abstract. In principle, the restoration of damaged raised bogs has rather few requirements: (1) a sufficient supply, and retention, of precipitation water of appropriate quality; and (2) the availability of a suitable range of recolonist species. However, to meet these requirements it may be necessary to engineer the topography of the peatland and drainage systems and to adopt a policy of species introduction. This paper provides a critical summary review of: (1) existing knowledge about the environmental conditions necessary for the effective regeneration of damaged ombrogenous peatlands; (2) approaches adopted for generating conditions appropriate for the re-establishment of plant species typical of raised bogs; (3) possible external constraints (especially atmospheric contaminants) upon the feasibility of restoration; and (4) the prospects and possibilities for effective species recolonization. Particular attention is given to the identification of uncertainties and critical gaps in existing knowledge about raised bog restoration and of some of the natural processes that help regulate the development of raised bogs.     

Abrupt Climate-Independent Fire Regime Changes

Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.     

Effects of climatic change on chemistry and vegetation of peatlands,with special reference to interaction with atmospheric deposition

This paper summarizes expected changes in hydrology, chemistry and biota of Dutch peatlands (bogs, fens and moorland pools) caused by climatic changes resulting from the Greenhouse Effect. Special attention is paid to the interaction with atmospheric acid deposition. In both bogs and moorland pools prolonged drought periods may cause deleterious effects on biota because of the release of atmospherically-derived reduced sulphur compounds. In fenlands negative changes will be caused by eutrophication due to increased supply of allochtonous water. Long-term water and nutrient budgets are needed, along with better predictions of expected climate changes, to develop models of changes in hydrology, chemistry and biota of peatlands.     

Ecosystem state shifts during long‐term development of an Amazonian peatland

The most carbon (C)‐dense ecosystems of Amazonia are areas characterized by the presence of peatlands. However, Amazonian peatland ecosystems are poorly understood and are threatened by human activities. Here, we present an investigation into long‐term ecohydrological controls on C accumulation in an Amazonian peat dome. This site is the oldest peatland yet discovered in Amazonia (peat initiation ca. 8.9 ka BP), and developed in three stages: (i) peat initiated in an abandoned river channel with open water and aquatic plants; (ii) inundated forest swamp; and (iii) raised peat dome (since ca. 3.9 ka BP). Local burning occurred at least three times in the past 4,500 years. Two phases of particularly rapid C accumulation (ca. 6.6–6.1 and ca. 4.9–3.9 ka BP), potentially resulting from increased net primary productivity, were seemingly driven by drier conditions associated with widespread drought events. The association of drought phases with major ecosystem state shifts (open water wetland–forest swamp–peat dome) suggests a potential climatic control on the developmental trajectory of this tropical peatland. A third drought phase centred on ca. 1.8–1.1 ka BP led to markedly reduced C accumulation and potentially a hiatus during the peat dome stage. Our results suggest that future droughts may lead to phases of rapid C accumulation in some inundated tropical peat swamps, although this can lead ultimately to a shift to ombrotrophy and a subsequent return to slower C accumulation. Conversely, in ombrotrophic peat domes, droughts may lead to reduced C accumulation or even net loss of peat. Increased surface wetness at our site in recent decades may reflect a shift towards a wetter climate in western Amazonia. Amazonian peatlands represent important carbon stores and habitats, and are important archives of past climatic and ecological information. They should form key foci for conservation efforts.     

Subfossil bog-pine horizons document climate and ecosystem changes during the Mid-Holocene

Extended dendrochronological investigations were performed on subfossil pine entombed in peat layers of former raised bogs in Lower Saxony (NW Germany). The aim was to study of dynamics in bog development in response to local environmental conditions and regional changes in climate throughout the Holocene. To date, 1702 samples have been collected from 36 locations. Crossdating with the Lower Saxony Bog Oak Chronology (LSBOC) resulted in five absolutely dated pine chronologies covering large parts of the period from 5600 BC to 2200 BC. Radiocarbon dating of eight additional chronologies extends this time-span from 7000 BC to 1500 BC. By combining dendrochronology with information on stratigraphic position as well as stem and root morphology we found that major changes in site hydrology cause changes in growth pattern and population dynamics of subfossil pine whereas storm and fire were of minor importance. The fact that shifts in growth patterns and population dynamics occurred simultaneously in trees from different sites indicates regional climate changes as main drivers of pines forest development in peatland ecosystems.     

Widespread dust deposition on North American peatlands coincident with European land-clearance

Ecosystems around the world are being subjected to numerous human disturbances. Climate change and land degradation are the most obvious of these disturbances and have received much attention. However, easily overlooked, indirect disturbances can also alter ecosystem structure and function. Dust deposition is a prime example of an easily overlooked disturbance process. We hypothesized that historic European settlement and land-clearance in eastern North America led to widespread wind erosion of upland soils and subsequent dust deposition onto otherwise undisturbed peatlands, potentially fertilizing these naturally nutrient-poor ecosystems and causing shifts in plant communities. We tested these hypotheses by analyzing 11 peat profiles collected across a broad region of eastern North America. We documented a strong correlation between the concentrations of Ambrosia pollen grains and microscopic mineral particles, interpreting this as a signal of dust deposition coincident with European settlement and land-clearance. Analysis of Sphagnum macrofossils revealed substantial site-to-site variability in both the degree and the direction of ecological response to dust deposition, but suggested that increasing magnitude of dust deposition increased the likelihood of a decline in the relative abundance of Sphagnum. Results also suggested that raised bogs were more sensitive to dust deposition than kettle peatlands. We conclude that European settlement and land-clearance resulted in widespread dust deposition on peatlands, leading to ecological changes in some of these ecosystems, and leaving behind a coherent dust horizon in the late-Holocene peatland stratigraphy of eastern North America. This easily overlooked indirect disturbance process could be ongoing today in areas of widespread soil disturbance and could potentially further alter dust-receiving ecosystems.     

Effect of habitat fragmentation on levels and patterns of genetic diversity in natural populations of the peat moss Polytrichum commune

Peat bogs represent unique ecosystems that are under particular threat from fragmentation due to peat harvesting, with only 38% of the original peatland in Europe remaining intact and unaffected by peat cutting, drainage and silviculture. In this study, we have used microsatellite markers to determine levels and patterns of genetic diversity in both cut and uncut natural populations of the peat moss Polytrichum commune. Overall diversity levels suggest that there is more genetic variation present than had previously been assumed for bryophytes. Despite this, diversity values from completely cut bogs were found to be lower than those from uncut peatlands (average 0.729 versus 0.880). In addition, the genetic diversity was more highly structured in the cut populations, further suggesting that genetic drift is already affecting genetic diversity in peat bogs subjected to fragmentation.     

Will increased storm disturbance affect the biodiversity of intertidal,nonscleractinian sessile fauna on coral reefs?

Relatively little is known about how the future effects of climatic change, including increases in sea level, temperature and storm severity and frequency, will impact on patterns of biodiversity on coral reefs, with the notable exception of recent work on corals and fish in tropical reef ecosystems. Sessile invertebrates such as ascidians, sponges and bryozoans occupying intertidal rubble habitats on coral reefs contribute significantly to the overall biodiversity and ecosystem function, but there is little or no information available on the likely impacts on these species from climate change. The existing strong physical gradients in these intertidal habitats will be exacerbated under predicted climatic change. By examining the distribution and abundance of nonscleractinian, sessile invertebrate assemblages exposed to different levels of wave action and at different heights on the shore around a coral reef, we show that coral reef intertidal biodiversity is particularly sensitive to physical disturbance. As physical disturbance regimes increase due to more intense storms and wave action associated with global warming, we can expect to see a corresponding decrease in the diversity of these cryptic sessile assemblages. This could impact negatively on the future health and productivity of coral reef ecosystems, given the ecosystem services these organisms provide.     

Development of ombrotrophic raised bogs in North-east Germany 17?years after the adoption of a protective program

The present study reports on the development of ombrotrophic raised bogs in NE Germany after the adoption of a protective program with a focus on the hydrological and floristic changes in two simultaneously restored cut-over bogs as a reference for all other bogs. At the moment, four fifths of the bogs area is dominated by woody vegetation forms and <5?% is characterized by typical raised bog vegetation. The trend of increasing areas with woody vegetation forms and decreasing areas with vegetation typical for ombrotrophic raised bogs could not be prevented despite increasing the portion of revitalized areas. The reason for the negative developments is founded in the different types of raised bogs in NE Germany, which differ in regard to the historical lagg area and the original grown up raised peat body. This as well as the kind and intensity of anthropogenic use have significant implications for the possibilities of revitalization and protection. Except for those bogs where no peat remnants remain, the revitalization of cut-over raised bogs in NE Germany can succeed if an almost closed hydrological protection zone (HPZ which is equal to the historical lagg area) is established so that the gradient of entire lateral water flow between the higher lying peat remnant and the lower lying surrounding area is reduced. The attainment of a lateral water flow gradient comparable to the original state and of a water-saturated peat body succeeds in turn in the precondition for growing Sphagnum species, which readjust the system??s self regulation. The comparison of two bogs with similar preconditions concerning location, climate, and anthropogenic transformation has shown that an incompletely closed HPZ is one important reason for the decreasing portion of intact raised bogs with their typical vegetation. The influence of climate change on current hydrological and floristic changes in NE German ombrotrophic raised bogs has less influence on the success of revitalization than the historic grown type of bog and the intensity of anthropogenic use.     

Predicting impacts of Arctic climate change: Past lessons and future challenges

General circulation models predict increases in temperature and precipitation in the Arctic as the result of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Arctic ecosystems are strongly constrained by temperature, and may be expected to be markedly influenced by climate change. Perturbation experiments have been used to predict how Arctic ecosystems will respond to global climatic change, but these have often simulated individual perturbations (e.g. temperature alone) and have largely been confined to the short Arctic summer. The importance of interactions between global change variables (e.g. CO₂, temperature, precipitation) has rarely been examined, and much experimentation has been short-term. Similarly, very little experimentation has occurred in the winter when General circulation models predict the largest changes in climate will take place. Recent studies have clearly demonstrated that Arctic ecosystems are not dormant during the winter and thus much greater emphasis on experimentation during this period is essential to improve our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to global change. This, combined with more long-term experimentation, direct observation of natural vegetation change (e.g. at the tundra/taiga boundary) and improvements in model predictions is necessary if we are to understand the future nature and extent of Arctic ecosystems in a changing climate.