Teenage childbearing: structural determinants in developing countries

Data for a sample of 50 developing countries are analysed to investigate the social correlates of the teenage birth rate. Of five major factors considered as predictors of national birth rates (socioeconomic development, family planning programmes, women's status, the sex ratio, and marriage patterns), regression analyses reveal that only the average age at marriage for women has a significant effect on the teenage birth rate. In contrast, all variables except the sex ratio and the average age at marriage for women have a significant effect on the total fertility rate.     

Clinical implications of genetic susceptibility to diabetes mellitus

Abstract

Relatively little attention has been given to the interpretation of age‐at‐marriage differences in fertility. This paper discusses possible demographic and sociological sources of this differential. The argument is made that sociological interpretations deserve increased attention since most of the observed differential persists after control for likely demographic components (premarital pregnancy, unwanted fertility, and subfecundity) and for correlated social and background variables (education of self and parents, religion, farm background, number of siblings, whether respondent's parental family was intact, and husband's age at marriage). Multiple‐classification analysis is employed. The analysis concludes by noting that age at first birth has an even stronger relationship with fertility than age at marriage and that the sociological dimensions of age relevant to age at marriage are even more appropriate to age at entrance into motherhood.     

The impact of labor-saving technology on first birth intervals in rural Ethiopia

Across the developing world labor-saving technologies introduce considerable savings in the time and energy that women allocate to work. Hormonal studies on natural fertility populations indicate that such a reduction in energetic expenditure (rather than improved nutritional status alone) can lead to increased ovarian function. Other qualitative studies have highlighted a link between labor-saving technology and behavioral changes affecting subsequent age at marriage, which may affect fertility. This biodemographic study was designed to investigate whether these physiological and behavioral changes affect fertility at a population level by focusing on a recent water development scheme in Southern Ethiopia. The demographic consequences of a reduction in women's workload following the installation of water points, specifically the variation in length of first birth interval (time lapsed between marriage and first birth), are investigated. First birth interval length is closely associated with lifetime fertility in populations that do not practice contraception, longer intervals being associated with lower fertility. Using life tables and multivariate hazard modeling techniques a number of significant predictors of first birth interval length are identified. Covariates such as age at marriage, season of marriage, village ecology, and access to improved water supply have significant effects on variation in first birth intervals. When entered into models as a time-varying covariate, access to a water tap stand is associated with an immediate reduction in length of first birth intervals.     

Theory and applications of a computationally efficient cohort simulation model of human reproduction

Ease of implementation and computational efficiency are two necessary criteria if a simulation system is to be run repeatedly. Described in this paper is a cohort simulation model, based on the theory of terminating renewal processes, which satisfies these two criteria. There are two versions of the model. In one version, waiting times till pregnancy and times spent in the postpartum sterile state, as well as parity progression ratios reflecting hypothetical birth intentions, are taken into account. Unlike simulation systems described in earlier papers, pregnancy wastage is not accommodated in this version of the model. A second version is a model of birth intervals in which parity progression ratios and distributions of waiting times among live births, both of which may reflect pregnancy wastage when based on birth history data, serve as computer input. Female mortality, expressed as a survival function, and a distribution of age at marriage in a cohort are essential parts of both versions of the system. High efficiency in computing the many required convolutions has been obtained by use of a fast Fourier transform algorithm. After an overview of computer software design is given, the computer input for twelve simulation runs is described. These twelve runs are designed to test the impact of various combinations of levels of mortality, age of marriage, and fertility on population growth. One of the interesting substantive conclusions stemming from the simulation runs was that in populations of low mortality and fertility, late age at marriage, as observed in some historical populations, can be a significant factor in increasing the population doubling time.     

Ownership of Dwelling Affects the Sex Ratio at Birth in Uganda

Background

Socio-economic conditions can affect the secondary sex ratio in humans. Mothers under good environmental conditions are predicted to increase the birth rates of sons according to the Trivers-Willard hypothesis (TWH). This study analyzed the effects of ownership and non-ownership of dwellings on the sex ratio at birth (SRB) on a Ugandan sample.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Our investigation included 438,640 mothers aged between 12 and 54 years. The overall average SRB was 0.5008. Mothers who live in owned dwellings gave increased births to sons (0.5019) compared to those who live in non-owned dwellings (0.458). Multivariate statistics revealed the strongest effects of dwelling ownership when controlling for demographic and social variables such as marital status, type of marriage, mothers’ age, mothers’ education, parity and others.

Conclusions/Significance

The results are discussed in the framework of recent plausible models dealing with the adjustment of the sex ratio. We conclude that the aspect of dwelling status could represent an important socio-economic parameter in relation to SRB variations in humans if further studies are able to analyze it between different countries in a comparative way.     

The pattern of reproductive life in a Berber population of morocco

Abstract

Reproductive patterns were studied from data collected in 1,450 Berber households in the province of Marrakesh, Morocco in 1984. Women aged 45–49 years had a mean of 8.9 pregnancies to achieve 5.7 living children. Social influences on fertility rates show the importance of tradition, particularly through time‐dependent variables such as age at marriage, waiting time to first birth, interbirth intervals, and duration of breastfeeding. Birth control does not appear to affect the tempo of fertility; rather, its main use is to bring the reproductive period to a close. The comparison of two subsamples of women separated by a 25‐year interval indicates an actual acceleration of the tempo of fertility by the reduction of waiting time to first birth and of interbirth intervals. The supposed ongoing process of demographic transition is not clearly observed in this population.     

Premarital fertility in Namibia: trends, factors and consequences

Premarital fertility, defined as fertility before first marriage, was found to be highly prevalent in Namibia. According to data from the 1992 and 2000 DHS surveys, the proportion of premarital births was 43% for all births, and 60% for the first birth. This seemed to be primarily due to a late mean age at first marriage (26.4 years) and low levels of contraception before first marriage. Data were analysed using a variety of demographic methods, including multiple decrement life table and multivariate logistic models. Major variations were found by ethno-linguistic groups: Herero and Nama/Damara had the highest levels of premarital fertility (above 60%); Ovambo and Lozi had intermediate levels of premarital fertility (around 40%); Kavongo and San appeared to have kept a more traditional behaviour of early marriage and low levels of premarital fertility (around 20%). The largest ethno-linguistic group, the Ovambo, were in a special situation, with fast increasing age at marriage and average level of premarital fertility. Whites and mixed races also differed, with Afrikaans-speaking groups having a behaviour closer to the average, whereas other Europeans had less premarital fertility despite an average age at marriage. Ethnic differences remained stable after controlling for various socioeconomic factors, such as urbanization, level of education, wealth, access to mass media, and religion. Results are discussed in light of the population dynamics and political history of Namibia in the 20th century.     

Determinants of birth interval in a rural Mediterranean population (La Alpujarra, Spain)

The fertility pattern, in terms of birth intervals, in a rural population not practicing contraception belonging to La Alta Alpujarra Oriental (southeast Spain) is analyzed. During the first half of the 20th century, this population experienced a considerable degree of geographical and cultural isolation. Because of this population's high variability in fertility and therefore in birth intervals, the analysis was limited to a homogenous subsample of 154 families, each with at least five pregnancies. This limitation allowed us to analyze, among and within families, effects of a set of variables on the interbirth pattern, and to avoid possible problems of pseudoreplication. Information on birth date of the mother, age at marriage, children's birth date and death date, birth order, and frequency of miscarriages was collected. Our results indicate that interbirth intervals depend on an exponential effect of maternal age, especially significant after the age of 35. This effect is probably related to the biological degenerative processes of female fertility with age. A linear increase of birth intervals with birth order within families was found as well as a reduction of intervals among families experiencing an infant death. Our sample size was insufficient to detect a possible replacement behavior in the case of infant death. High natality and mortality rates, a secular decrease of natality rates, a log-normal birth interval, and family-size distributions suggest that La Alpujarra has been a natural fertility population following a demographic transition process.     

Life Expectancy and the Timing of Life History Events in Developing Countries

Life history theory predicts that greater extrinsic mortality will lead to earlier and higher fertility. To test this prediction, I examine the relationship between life expectancy at birth and several proxies for life history traits (ages at first sex and first marriage, total fertility rate, and ideal number of children), measured for both men and women. Data on sexual behaviors come from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Two separate samples are analyzed: a cross-sectional sample of 62 countries and a panel sample that includes multiple cross-sectional panels from 48 countries. Multivariate regression analysis is used to control for potential confounding variables. The results provide only partial support for the predictions, with greater support among women than men. However, the prediction is not supported in sub-Saharan African countries, most likely owing to the nonequilibrium conditions observed in sub-Saharan Africa with respect to life expectancy. The applicability of the model to understanding HIV/AIDS risk behaviors is discussed.     

Kin influences on fertility in Thailand: Effects and mechanisms

It has been suggested that human mothers are cooperative breeders, as they need help from others to successfully raise offspring. Studies working under this framework have found correlations between the presence of kin and both child survival and female fertility rates. This study seeks to understand the proximate mechanisms by which kin influence fertility using data from the 1987 Thailand Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), a nationally representative sample of 6775 women. Kin influence is measured by the length of time couples live with the husband's or wife's parents after marriage. Event history analysis, multilevel modeling and structural equation modeling are used to investigate both fertility outcomes and potential pathways through which postnuptial residence may influence fertility outcomes, including employment status, maternal and child outcomes, contraceptive use, breastfeeding duration, and age at marriage. We show that living virilocally (with husband's kin after marriage) increases total fertility by shortening time from marriage to first birth, and increasing the likelihood of progression to each subsequent birth. These effects are mediated through correlations between virilocal residence and earlier age at marriage as well as delayed initiation of contraceptive use. We find no influence of husband's kin on maternal or child outcomes. Living uxorilocally (with wife's kin after marriage) also reduces age at marriage, shortens time from marriage to first birth and (marginally) improves child survivorship, but has no effect on other child and maternal outcomes or progression to subsequent births and results in a similar number of living children as women living neolocally.     

Changing household composition,labor patterns,and fertility in a highland New Guinea population

The European demographic transition of the nineteenth century is often proposed as a model for demographic change in twentieth century developing nations, and economic development is seen as leading to an inevitable reduction in total fertility in these nations. This paper examines data from the Gainj of Papua New Guinea, a natural fertility population with very low reproductive output, and suggests that the effects of development on fertility change are much more complex than a simple demographic transition model would suggest. Looking at two variables known to contribute significantly to low total fertility among the Gainj, late age at first birth for women and long interbirth intervals, the paper suggests that households, in their recruitment and allocation of labor, may exert a mediating influence in the relationship between economic development and fertility.     

Evolution of flight morphology in a butterfly that has recently expanded its geographic range

Individuals colonizing unoccupied habitats typically possess characters associated with increased dispersal and, in insects, colonization success has been related to flight morphology. The speckled wood butterfly, Pararge aegeria, has undergone recent major expansions in its distribution: in the north of its range, P. aegeria has colonized many areas in north and east England, and in the south, it was first recorded on Madeira in 1976. We examined morphological traits associated with flight and reproduction in the northern subspecies tircis, and in the southern subspecies aegeria, from sites colonized about 20 years ago in northern England and on Madeira, respectively. Investment in flight was measured as relative wing area and thorax mass, and investment in reproduction as relative abdomen mass. All measurements were from individuals reared in a common environment and there were significant family effects in most of the variables measured. Compared with individuals from sites continuously occupied in recent history, colonizing individuals were larger (adult live mass). In the subspecies tircis, colonizing individuals also had relatively larger thoraxes and lower wing aspect ratios indicating that evolutionary changes in flight morphology may be related to colonization. However, sex by site interactions in analyses of thorax mass and abdomen mass suggest different selection pressures on flight morphology between the sexes in relation to colonization. Overall, the subspecies aegeria was smaller (adult live mass) and had a relatively larger thorax and wings, and smaller abdomen than subspecies tircis. Evolutionary changes in flight morphology and dispersal rate may be important determinants of range expansion, and may affect responses to future climate change. Received: 1 March 1999 / Accepted: 30 June 1999     

Population homeostasis in sub-Saharan Africa

Global population growth remains one of the major challenges of the twenty-first century. This is particularly true for African countries which have been undergoing their demographic transitions. To investigate whether predicted increasing population density and urbanization can help to stabilize African population, we construct a database for 84 georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) samples including 947,191 individuals in sub-Saharan Africa and match each location with gridded population density from NASA. We apply a proportional hazard model to evaluate the quantitative impact of local population density on the transitions from childlessness to motherhood, and from celibacy to marriage. Moving from the 5th to the 95th percentile of population density increases the median age at first birth by 2.2 years. This roughly decreases completed fertility by half a child. The same increase in population density increases the median age at first marriage by 3.3 years. These findings contribute to the understanding of why fertility has not dropped in Africa as fast as expected. One part of the answer is that population density remains low. Yet the total effect of increased density on fertility remains limited and counting on it to stabilize the population would be unrealistic.     

Time trends and determinants of completed family size in a rural community from the Basque area of Spain (1800-1969)

The focus of this work is the analysis of changes in completed family size and possible determinants of that size over time, in an attempt to characterize the evolution of reproductive patterns during the demographic transition. With this purpose in mind, time trends are studied in relation to the mean number of live births per family (as an indirect measure of fertility), using family reconstitution techniques to trace the reproductive history of each married woman. The population surveyed is a Spanish rural community called Lanciego, located at the southern end of the province of Alava (Basque Country). A total of 24,510 parish records of baptisms, marriages and burials made between 1800 and 1969 were examined to obtain the demographic data set. For each reconstituted family, the variables included in the study were the number of live births per family or family size (FAMS), year of marriage (YEAR), age at marriage of both partners (AMAN, AWOM), wife's age at the end of marriage (WEND), duration of marriage (MARD), age at first maternity (A1CH), length of reproductive span (REPS) and number of children dying before their first anniversary (MINF). Through a principal component analysis, three factors were found that explained more than 75% of the total variance. Association of variables in factors I and III was particularly useful in characterizing the variability of mean family size in pre-transitional, transitional and post-transitional cohorts. During demographic transition, a decreasing trend is observed in the variables FAMS, REPS and MINF, while variables AWOM, AMAN, WEND and A1CH show a tendency to increase over the 20th century. Results obtained by multiple regression analysis confirm that the best predictors of family size (dependent variable) were REPS and MINF, which between them explained over 85% of the total variation in FAMS (R2 = 0.853). In Lanciego, birth control seems to be present on the evidence of an increase in age at first maternity and a decrease in age at last parturition, indicating that the beginning of the reproductive span is delayed and its end is brought forward. Interaction between family size and infant mortality is discussed in the light of various hypotheses, including replacement of descendants, the so-called biological effect and the theory of r and k selection.     

Fitness and fertility among Kalahari !Kung

In this paper we develop a model that examines fertility and childhood mortality patterns and their relationship to environmental variables. Interactions among environmental variables can account for different fertility patterns and different mixes of these variables can produce similar patterns of fertility. Our model attempts to quantify the idea that there is a trade-off between producing a few children likely to survive to reproductive age and producing a greater number of children with lower chances for survival. The optimum mix of these strategies depends on environmental characteristics. We use the model to make predictions about fertility and mortality patterns among two Bushmen populations of southern Africa--the Ghanzi and Ngamiland !Kung--using data collected by Harpending in 1967-1968. The results do not support explanations of the low fertilities observed among !Kung Bushmen women, in whom it is thought that fitness is maximized by limiting fertility, and show no relationship between mortality and family size in either !Kung population. Instead, the number of offspring reaching reproductive age in both populations increases as their completed family size increases. We examine the effects of sex, birth order, and paternal investment on mortality. No sex ratio differences and no differences in mortality by sex or birth order are present. Infant mortality among women who married more than once is significantly higher than among women who married once, suggesting that paternal care has a significant effect.     

Fertility at low and high altitude in central Nepal

Abstract

Data are reported on ages of menarche, first marriage and first childbirth, migration, venereal disease, birth control, birth spacing and on completed fertility rate in populations of Central Nepal living at low (8,500 feet) and high altitude (12,400 feet). The high‐altitude population reported a significantly lower completed fertility rate which could be partly accounted for by later age at marriage and first childbirth and increased birth spacing. Longer post‐partum ammenorhea and breast feeding did not account for the increased average pregnancy gap.     

Evolution of birth intervals in a french rural population (1840–1950)

This study presents the first results concerning the evolution of the birth intervals since 1840 among a rural population of the centre of France, where birth control appeared as far back as the end of the 18th Century. We observe the absence of variation of the average interval between successive briths in relation to the period of marriage, family size and socio-economic status of spouses. This confirms that child spacing does not play a part in the constitution of family. The average intervals between marriage and first birth are associated with most of the variables, essentially due to the marrying age and to a lesser extent to the family size. This rural population, in spite of a modern profile by the widespread practice of birth control, still presents traditional attitudes in the structure of its fertility as is indicated by the absence of birth spreading and the important part which seems to be played by the marriage age of women.     

Differential fertility in Bangladesh: A path analysis

Abstract

This study attempts to show both theoretically and empirically the causal links between selected background, socioeconomic, and demographic variables, on the one hand, and between these variables and cumulative fertility, on the other. Two distinct models, urban and rural, emerge as a result of a statistical test. In both models, neither wife's nor husband's childhood background is found to have any significant direct effects on fertility. Wife's age, religion, and age at marriage are the common variables which directly affect the number of children ever born. While age and religion bear positive direct effects, age at marriage exerts a negative direct effect. The indirect effect of religion is positive both in the rural and urban area. Both the direct and indirect effects of wife's education on fertility in urban Bangladesh are negative. Husband's education, in contrast, has a positive direct effect in the urban area and no effect at all in the rural area.     

A Cultural–Historical Perspective on the Depressed Fertility Among the Matrilineal Moso in Southwest China

Family systems exert substantial influence on the demographic processes of populations. The Moso in Southwest China feature an institutionalized visiting sexual system, which differs from marriage, and a grand household system without conjugal units. Moso women enjoy virtually unlimited reproductive autonomy. On the basis of surveys of 127 Moso households conducted in 1988 and 1989, this paper analyzes the fertility experience of Moso women during the twentieth century and the mortality rates of the Moso population in the PRC era. Moso fertility patterns are characterized by a late age at first birth (median 23 years), long interbirth intervals (median 3 years), and a high rate of childlessness (16%). We conclude that this pattern of low fertility is an outcome of the unique Moso cultural practices. For the cohorts of Moso women born between 1905 and 1929, pathological sterility caused by STD is likely to have depressed fertility as well.     

Demographic and endocrinological aspects of low natural fertility in Highland New Guinea

The Gainj of highland Papua New Guinea do not use contraception but have a total fertility rate of only 4.3 live births/woman, 1 of the lowest ever recorded in a natural fertility setting. Reproductive and marital histories were obtained from 305 females and 206 males aged 10+. Each subject was asked about: number of live born offspring ever produced; number of stillbirths ever produced; number and names of offspring currently being nursed; number of current and past spouses; and the cause of dissolution of all past marriages. Blood samples were drawn from 172 volunteer female subjects aged 10-60 years and ovarian function was classified by concentration of progesterone. From an analysis of these cross-sectional demographic and endocrinological data, the causes of low reproductive output have been identified in women of this population as: late menarche and marriage, a long interval between marriage and 1st birth, a high probability of widowhood at later reproductive ages, low effective fecundability and prolonged lactational amenorrhea. These are combined with near-universal marriage, and a low prevalence of primary sterility similar to that found in other populations. Of all the factors limiting fertility, by far the most important are those involved in birth spacing, especially lactational amenorrhea. The effects of widowhood on Gainj fertility are negligible. Factors acting to lower fertility fall into 2 categories: those that determine the age of onset of reproduction and those that act to space births. Given the observed pattern of birth spacing, however, the delay in commencement of reproduction represents on average no more than 1 or 2 live births averted/woman. In contrast, were age at 1st reproduction held constant while reducing birth intervals to a mean of 2.0-2.5 years, total fertility would increase to about 7 or 8. Future research on natural fertility should focus on specific behavioral and physiological mechanisms governing the reproductive process.