Racial and cultural differences in sensitivity to flickering light

Latin America has been registering a fast decrease in fertility rates since the mid-twentieth century. This change can be linked to the modernization process these populations have been undergoing. However, research with Latin American indigenous populations, which are undergoing relatively similar lifestyle changes, shows very different trends in fertility. The aim of this study was to analyze fertility patterns in the indigenous Toba community of Cacique Sombrero Negro, which is experiencing a rapid process of economic and social Westernization. Fertility patterns were analyzed between 1981 and 1999, the period for which the most accurate records were found. Results showed an overall increase in fertility rates and changes in the age of peak fertility across time periods. It is hypothesized that the lifestyle transition this population is experiencing leads to better access to resources that, in the absence of contraception, allow for a higher number of offspring. Nevertheless, this higher resource availability would be differential, affecting mostly the fertility of younger mothers.     

Continuing fertility transitions in a plural society: ethnic trends and differentials in Peninsular Malaysia

Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia has declined continuously from the late 1950s, reaching a total fertility rate of 3735 in 1983. All ethnic groups in Malaysia have contributed to this modern demographic transition but the rate of change has been most rapid for Chinese and Indians, Malay fertility having reached a plateau in the early 1980s. The effect of age structure, marital patterns and marital fertility (by parity) on the fertility declines for each ethnic community are analyzed. There has been a tendency, in each ethnic group, for the age distribution within the group of reproductive-age women to grow younger, reflecting the entry into the younger reproductive ages of the large birth cohorts of the 1950s and early 1960s. The effect of this on crude birth rates is hard to determine, because rising age at marriage and increasing use of contraception meant that fertility was increasingly concentrated in the more central reproductive ages. By the 1990s, the earlier declines in fertility will bring about a decline in the proportion of the total population made up of females in the main reproductive ages. After that point, further declines in fertility will be reflected in a sharper decline in the crude birth rate and hence the rate of population increase. Between 1947 and 1980, the age at marriage changed dramatically for females of all ethnic groups. The transition to higher age at marriage for Chinese was completed earlier, and since 1970 has risen by only a year. For Malays and Indians, the rise began later, proceeded faster and continued right up to 1980 when the medium ages at 1st marriage were Malays 22, Indians 23, Chinese 24 years. In 1980, Malay women on average were marrying 5 years later, and Indian women 6 years later than had their mothers' generation in 1947. The proportion never-married among Malay and Indian women aged 20-24 rose from 1/10 to 1/2 over this period; relatively greater changes are evident at ages 25-29. Other factors are the almost complete shift from parent-arranged to self-arranged marriages. Family size desired has decreased for all groups and the decline in breastfeeding has been offset by the sharp increase in the practice of contraception. Continuation of these trends would lead to replacement-level fertility for Malaysian Chinese and Indians by the year 2000. Malay fertility is likely to continue to decline but at a more moderate pace.     

Population homeostasis in sub-Saharan Africa

Global population growth remains one of the major challenges of the twenty-first century. This is particularly true for African countries which have been undergoing their demographic transitions. To investigate whether predicted increasing population density and urbanization can help to stabilize African population, we construct a database for 84 georeferenced Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) samples including 947,191 individuals in sub-Saharan Africa and match each location with gridded population density from NASA. We apply a proportional hazard model to evaluate the quantitative impact of local population density on the transitions from childlessness to motherhood, and from celibacy to marriage. Moving from the 5th to the 95th percentile of population density increases the median age at first birth by 2.2 years. This roughly decreases completed fertility by half a child. The same increase in population density increases the median age at first marriage by 3.3 years. These findings contribute to the understanding of why fertility has not dropped in Africa as fast as expected. One part of the answer is that population density remains low. Yet the total effect of increased density on fertility remains limited and counting on it to stabilize the population would be unrealistic.     

A Reexamination of Rendille Population Regulation

Rendille pastoralists of northern Kenya have long been cited as a noncontracepting population regulating population growth through cultural practices in response to environmental constraints. However, no actual demographic analysis of Rendille data has ever been undertaken. This article attempts such an analysis. The demographic mechanisms of possible population regulation are delineated and the possible rationale for such behavior explored. Analysis reveals that the Rendille cultural institution of sepaade, in which females of a specific cyclical age-set delay their age at marriage, significantly reduces fertility and population growth rates. However, this practice is not intended as a means of population-resource equilibrium. Furthermore, Rendille cognizance of and emphasis on the negative demographic concomitants of sepaade suggest that the tradition was adopted despite, rather than because of its dampening of population growth.     

Biological and behavioral determinants of fertility in Tierra del Fuego

The reproductive history of 182 women in postreproductive life or near menopause from the Chilean part of Tierra del Fuego was traced back by means of familial interviews. These postmenopausal women represent the population since almost the beginning of the settlement, and their reproductive years were spent on the island. Path analysis was applied to analyze fertility determinants of these women and to propose a complex model of interconnections among factors. The reproductive history of these women is characterized by a long fertile span, a short childbearing period, and low fertility. Age at menarche is relatively late, and the age of the women at first birth is mainly determined by their late age at marriage. The use of contraception is related to both spacing and stopping behaviors. The late age of women at marriage, the rhythm of conception, and practices of contraception are proposed as the main determinants of fertility in Tierra del Fuego.     

Fertility and social class in a French village, 1901-75

Explanations of rural-urban fertility differentials have normally lain in assumptions about the traditionalist nature of rural, and especially agricultural, societies in contrast to the more rationalist and modern attitudes towards the family that exist in urban societies. This paper raises 2 objections to such an oversimplified view of rural-urban fertility differentials. The 1st is that rural fertility is assumed to have been relatively uncontrolled until the final stages of the demographic transition: the possibility of significant early control on fertility in rural areas is discounted. The 2nd is that this simplistic view of fertility differentials ignores the existence of social sub-groups within the rural population and assumes that all country-dwellers are members of an idealized rural society and behave, demographically, in a uniform fashion. The extent to which it is possible to recognize distinctive patterns of marriage and fertility within sub-groups of the rural population is examined by an analysis of the fertility experience of 294 females who lived in a single village in southern Normandy at some period between 1901 and 1975. Biographical details were obtained from an exhaustive analysis of census lists and the civil registration documents to attempt a family and household reconstitution. Other sources used include electoral registers and land-ownership records. The pattern of evolution of fertility in the village for the period considered is derived using Coale's demographic indices: indices of female proportions married, marital fertility, illegitmate fertility and overall fertility are derived by standardizing the population under study against the age-specific fertility schedules of a population believed to have natural fertiltity (the American Hutterites). Overall fertility has increased slightly through the 75-year period, being notably low at the star of the century, chiefly as a result of the high average age at 1st marrige of girls from owner-oc pying farm families. Changes in overall fertility through the century have partly resulted from changes in the proportionate contribution of the different sub-classes of the village as a whole, but the increased importance of owner-occupying farm households has been compensated by a similar increase in the importance of employees in nonagricultural activities who have the highest fertility levels of all. The explanations of these differentials in fertility between sub-classes of the local population appear to lie in the relationships of those classes to the labor market, and in the degree to which capital accumulation and inheritance act as a brake on early marriage and fertility within marriage.     

An evolutionary model of stature, age at first birth and reproductive success in Gambian women

We have built a model to predict optimal age at first birth for women in a natural fertility population. The only existing fully evolutionary model, based on Ache hunter-gatherers, argues that as women gain weight, their fertility (rate of giving birth) increases-thus age at first birth represents a trade-off between time allocated to weight gain and greater fertility when mature. We identify the life-history implications of female age at first birth in a Gambian population, using uniquely detailed longitudinal data collected from 1950 to date. We use height rather than weight as an indicator of growth as it is more strongly correlated with age at first birth. Stature does not greatly influence fertility in this population but has a significant effect on offspring mortality. We model age at first reproduction as a trade-off between the time spent growing and reduced infant mortality after maturation. Parameters derived from this population are fitted to show that the predicted optimal mean age of first birth, which maximizes reproductive success, is 18 years, very close to that observed. The reaction norm associated with variation in growth rate during childhood also satisfactorily predicts the variation in age at first birth.     

The natural regulation of buffalo populations in East Africa: II. Reproduction,recruitment and growth*

Aspects of the seasonality of breeding, age-specific fertility, and growth were studied in a sample of animals collected from the Serengeti buffalo population, and compared with two populations in Uganda. Fluctuations in fertility and recruitment were studied by the use of regular aerial photographic samples of herds in the Serengeti. The fluctuations in fertility rate were not related to density and hence could not have regulated the population. Buffalo show a pronounced seasonality in births which is correlated with the quality of ingested food and with rainfall. Since the female has a considerably higher food requirement during late pregnancy and lactation, nutrition is probably an important factor determining this seasonality. Conception does not appear to be influenced by nutrition, for the quality of food remains high throughout the rainy season prior to and during the period of conception. Growth rate, age of first ovulation, and age of sexual maturity do not appear to differ between the Serengeti and Uganda populations. Although there is little difference in fertility between these populations, as measured from the collected samples, little weight can be placed on this evidence, for large fluctuations in fertility can take place from year to year within a population. The fluctuations in the Serengeti population do not appear to be correlated with rainfall, and it is possible that they are random. Fluctuations in recruitment from year to year are also observed. Two sample areas over 100 km apart but within the same population show parallel fluctuations suggesting a similar external influence on the size of the recruitment. This recruitment is not correlated with population size but it may be related to rainfall. Underweight calves at birth have been recorded and this may have been caused by the undernutrition of pregnant females during the dry season through a combination of poor food supply and the demands of the previous lactation.     

Modeling neolithic dispersal in central Europe: demographic implications

On the basis of new examination of ancient DNA and craniometric analyses, Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe has been recently explained as reflecting colonization or at least a major influx of near eastern farmers. Given the fact that Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe was very rapid and extended into a large area, colonization would have to be associated with high population growth and fertility rates of an expanding Neolithic population. We built three demographic models to test whether the growth and fertility rates of Neolithic farmers were high enough to allow them to colonize Central Europe without admixture with foragers. The principle of the models is based on stochastic population projections. Our results demonstrate that colonization is an unlikely explanation for the Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe, as the majority of fertility and growth rate estimates obtained in all three models are higher than levels expected in the early Neolithic population. On the basis of our models, we derived that colonization would be possible only if (1) more than 37% of women survived to mean age at childbearing, (2) Neolithic expansion in Central Europe lasted more than 150 years, and (3) the population of farmers grew in the entire settled area. These settings, however, represent very favorable demographic conditions that seem unlikely given current archaeological and demographic evidence. Therefore, our results support the view that Neolithic dispersal in Central Europe involved admixture of expanding farmers with local foragers. We estimate that the admixture contribution from foragers may have been between 55% and 72%.     

Harijans and Girijans of Andhra Pradesh: an application of analysis of variance in the study of fertility,mortality and family planning

Research on the Bagatha tribe and the Malas and Madigas in India has been done for economic and social planning purposes in regard to family planning. Bagatha are mostly agricultural people where the nuclear family is prevalent and polygamy is popular as well as cousin marriage. The Madigas and Males (Harijans) are lower caste with the 1st being leather workers and the latter being agricultural helpers. The data was collected by direct interview of 202 tribesmen and 202 caste households with women from 15-49 years of age. The data collected on fertility include live births, child survival rate, fetal wastage, husband and wives education, income, and occupations. On mortality, the number of deaths, age at marriage, number of and intervals of pregnancies. As expected, educated and employed families show healthier and higher levels of fertility especially if the wife is educated. The wife shows more of the responsibility for family planning. The age at marriage and the number of pregnancies appears to have little effect on mortality. In the caste group the education level of the husband has little effect on fertility and again the wife has the primary responsibility in using family planning techniques.     

Theory and applications of a computationally efficient cohort simulation model of human reproduction

Ease of implementation and computational efficiency are two necessary criteria if a simulation system is to be run repeatedly. Described in this paper is a cohort simulation model, based on the theory of terminating renewal processes, which satisfies these two criteria. There are two versions of the model. In one version, waiting times till pregnancy and times spent in the postpartum sterile state, as well as parity progression ratios reflecting hypothetical birth intentions, are taken into account. Unlike simulation systems described in earlier papers, pregnancy wastage is not accommodated in this version of the model. A second version is a model of birth intervals in which parity progression ratios and distributions of waiting times among live births, both of which may reflect pregnancy wastage when based on birth history data, serve as computer input. Female mortality, expressed as a survival function, and a distribution of age at marriage in a cohort are essential parts of both versions of the system. High efficiency in computing the many required convolutions has been obtained by use of a fast Fourier transform algorithm. After an overview of computer software design is given, the computer input for twelve simulation runs is described. These twelve runs are designed to test the impact of various combinations of levels of mortality, age of marriage, and fertility on population growth. One of the interesting substantive conclusions stemming from the simulation runs was that in populations of low mortality and fertility, late age at marriage, as observed in some historical populations, can be a significant factor in increasing the population doubling time.     

Differential fertility in the United States, 1980: continuity or change?

This paper considers how changes in women's sociocultural characteristics have influenced recent patterns of differential fertility in the US and whether the convergence of fertility differentials observed up to 1970 has continued. The data are drawn from the June 1980 US Current Population Survey, which is a probability sample survey selected to represent the civilian non-institutionalized population living in households. The study population consists of 20,621 ever-married White and Black women aged 25-44, a group for various reasons considered to have a high impact from the point of view of fertility behavior. Fertility to date and ever expected fertility are the dependent variables. The respondents were separated into age cohorts, and differentiated by race. The data suggest that there has been no change in differential fertility in recent years: the 2 youngest cohorts (25-29 and 30-34 years) have similar expected fertilities that are lower than those of the older cohorts. Age at 1st birth, length of 1st birth interval, income, and education were negatively associated with fertility, among both older and younger women, of both races. Differentials by race have narrowed slightly. When fertility expectations were examined, the association of the independent variables with expected completed fertility was weaker among younger women, indicating that there has been some convergence in expected fertility. Further narrowing of differentials in actual fertility depends on how successful the younger women are in preventing future unplanned births. If the present tendency towards surgical sterilization (among both races and groups above and below the poverty level) persists, it will make it possible for more women to stay within their expected total fertility levels.     

Fertility at low and high altitude in Central Nepal

Since the 1930s, a number of different studies have tended to show that fertility is lower at high altitude. The present investigation attempts to provide some answers to this question by examining completed fertility rate (CFR) in Highland and Lowland villages in Central Nepal and relating rate differences to age at menarche, age at 1st childbirth, age at 1st marriage, incidence of venereal disease, birth control (vasectomy or hysterectomy), length of postpartum amenorrhea, and breastfeeding. Data was obtained by direct questioning, and under-reporting of births thus cannot be excluded. Fertility histories were taken from post-menopausal women over the age of 45 years. Results indicate no significant difference in reported menarcheal ages between highlanders and lowlanders. Age at 1st marriage and 1st childbirth were both significantly later in highlanders. CFR was significantly lower in highlanders. It would appear that the reduced fertility rate at high altitude can be partly attributable to later age at marriage and later 1st childbirth. Other factors, e.g., husband absenteeism and remarriage have also been suggested as possible contributors to the observed difference. This paper presents the results of a multiple regression analysis using 9 dependent variables: ages of marriage, 1st childbirth and menarch, the average gap between pregnancies, the average amount of time the husband was away, the number of marriages, presence or absence of venereal disease at some time, whether birth control was practiced and altitude status. Average pregnancy gap, age at 1st childbirth and presence or absence of venereal disease were the only variables that independently made a significcant contribution to CFR variance. The increase in pregnancy gap may be related to longer periods of breastfeeding in high altitude women and there would be a concomitant delay in recommencement of menstruation. In testing the hypothesis, no difference is found in reported duration of breastfeeding or in postpartum amenorrhea. The age at marriage and age at 1st childbirth accounted for over 16% of the explained variance in CFR. Some of the observed difference in CFR can be explained by the difference in marital age but not by the interval between marriage and 1st childbirth, as it was very similar in both groups. The lower CFR among the high altitude population could be due to lowering of biological fecundity at high altitude, or simply a matter of choice. The difference might reflect human reproductive hormone differences between high and low altitude populations. Further research will be needed to determine whether or not differences in CFR can be explained by variation in these factors.     

Demographic and genetic interrelationships among the Gavlis of Dharwad

Lot of work has been done in recent years on the genetics of isolated and small population groups. But J. Sutter (1963) notes that these studies have not yielded satisfactory results, because these investigators have applied the formulae and models constructed by the mathematicians which are based on the assumption of panmixia, whereas panmixia cannot occur in human populations especially if the population is very small. Sometimes we speak of genetic drift and selection without taking into account the fact that the population at the same time is controlled by two most important demographic parameters of fertility and mortality which can alter genetic drift and selection. The geneticists are primarily interested in fertility. They want to determine, for any given couple, the number of offspring reaching the age of reproduction. One might therefore assume that the measurement of fertility should play a major role in population genetics. Thus, there is an urgent need for the establishment of meaningful relationship between demography and population genetics. In view of the above facts, an attempt is made in the present study to analyse the “Demographic and Genetic Interrelationships among the Gavlis of Dharwad” so as to throw light on some of the complex genetic issues like endogamy, inbreeding and selection potential.     

Causes and consequences of increase in child survival rates: ethnoepidemiology among the Hmong of Thailand.

The Hmong "hill tribe" minority in Thailand has much higher exposure to factors usually associated with risk of child mortality (high fertility, low status of women, low education, less use of modern medical care for births, exposure to warfare, economic and physical disruption, and poor hygienic conditions) than the rural ethnic Thai population. Nonetheless, infant mortality has declined from over 120 per 1000 to under 50 per 1000 live births among both these populations in the past 30 years. The reason for the rapid increase in child survival among the Hmong appears to be better access to and more use of modern curative and preventive medical care associated with road construction rather than major changes in social or hygienic conditions. Conventional wisdom suggests that high fertility is both a cause and a consequence of high infant and child mortality and that parents will not reduce fertility until they see that mortality has declined. Most Hmong parents recognize the decline in child mortality and attribute it to better access to modern medical care. Most Hmong parents also say that, if they were starting to have children now, they would want to have fewer children. Fear of child death is infrequently mentioned as a motive for having more children, and the perceived decline in child mortality is rarely mentioned as a reason for reduced fertility. Most Hmong parents explain their desired family size in terms of economic conditions rather than perceived risk of child mortality. Results of this study suggest that fertility and child mortality can vary independently of one another and that major reductions in child mortality can be accomplished without waiting for major social changes (e.g., improved education or status of women) or major reductions in fertility.     

Reproductive pattern in agrarian and immigrant receptor populations: a survey of El Ejido (SE Spain)

This paper deals with the fertility pattern of the El Ejido population, an agricultural Spanish community characterised by the rapid development of its modern agrarian economy. Consequently, the arrival of immigrants has sharply increased throughout the second half of the twentieth century, with important demographic consequences as well as reproductive changes. The analyses of the age-specific fertility rate (fx) and the total fertility rate (TFR) were used in order to describe the reproductive pattern of this population in 2000. The main characteristics were the following: a) Regarding the temporal change, an important decrease of fx has been observed in all age groups for the last twenty years, as a consequence of progressive birth control. However, the reproductive pattern has kept almost invariable and has been characterised by a maximum fertility at age group of 25-29 years old. b) Regarding the general Spanish fertility, the comparison of fx in both populations suggests a younger maternity in the agricultural population than in the national, the maximum fertility delayed to the 30-34 age group. c) Moreover, the El Ejido population showed a clear higher offspring per woman (TFR = 1.42) than the national (TFR = 1.24), according to the agrarian character of the El Ejido population. d) Finally, this greater reproductive level of El Ejido is also due to the arrival of women at fertile age, who come mainly from Africa, and above all from Morocco.     

The impact of controlled nutrition during the dry period on dairy cow health, fertility and performance

Average dairy herd fertility is declining, with more serves per successful conception, extended calving intervals and increased culling due to failure to rebreed, all adding significant costs to milk production. Genetics, management and nutrition have all contributed to this decline in fertility; the paper focuses primarily on nutritional issues. The extent of body condition loss after calving and its possible impact on fertility is considered, with evidence that this phenomenon is common in many herds irrespective of average milk yields. Body tissue mobilisation after calving increases the flux of non-esterified fatty acids to the liver and pathways of fatty acid metabolism are considered. Particular attention is given to the effects of high plasma non-esterified fatty acid levels on fat accumulation in liver cells and possible impacts on nitrogen and glucose metabolism. Current nutritional practices with early lactation cows which aim to stimulate milk yield and peak milk production but have been shown to exacerbate body condition loss, are reviewed. The paper also considers cow health issues during the peri-parturient period and how these may affect milk yield and fertility. It is concluded that current feeding practices for dry cows, with the provision of increasing amounts of the lactation ration during the Close-up period to accustom the rumen microbes and offset the expected reduction in feed intake as pregnancy reaches term, have largely failed to overcome peri-parturient health problems, excessive body condition loss after calving or declining fertility. From an examination of the energy and protein requirements of dry cows, it is suggested that current Close-up feeding practices can lead to luxury intakes of nutrients that can increase fat deposition in the viscera and the liver. Under such conditions, metabolism of nutrients by the cow may be compromised. In contrast, limited feeding throughout the whole dry period has been shown to prevent many of the problems which can affect peri-parturient cows. A new feeding strategy based on a low energy: high fibre ration (9 MJ metabolisable energy and 130 g crude protein/kg ration dry matter) containing high levels of chopped straw and offered ad libitum as a total mixed ration throughout the whole dry period is proposed. The performance of 32 dairy farms in France where this strategy has been adopted for at least 3 years is provided, with positive outcomes now being obtained by UK and Irish dairy farmers. Independent US research evidence has confirmed some of these benefits whilst limited data on cow fertility is presented. It is hypothesised that luxury feeding during the dry period can cause cows to become insulin resistant leading to an increased risk of type II diabetes. Such cows are likely to have poorer fertility whilst possible mechanisms which increase the risk of peri-parturient health problems are discussed. Further research to understand the mechanisms of these effects is required and is currently ongoing. However the magnitude of the effects noted on an increasing number of dairy farms suggests this approach to feeding the dry cow is capable of bringing real benefits to many dairy herds in terms of fewer health problems, reduced body condition loss and improved fertility.     

The problem of persistence in economic-demographic cycles

A continuous model for population cycles developed by Frauenthal is extended to provide further insights into damping and persistence. Values of the cycle magnitude parameter γ which would yield persistent cycles are estimated for a number of populations, and a regression technique is introduced by which γ can be estimated directly from cohort fertility rates. The results imply that cycles in American and other Western fertility since the depression, if present, have been stabilizing in their effects.     

The systematic position of Placusa Erichson and Euvira Sharp: the tribe Placusini described (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae: Aleocharinae)

Abstract. The genera Placusa Mannerheim and Euvira Sharp share the 4, 4, 5 tarsal segmentation with other members of the aleocharine tribe Bolitocharini. Placusa has usually been placed together with other subcortical members of this tribe into the subtribe Homalotina or its taxonomic equivalent. Members of the very distinctive genus Euvira are not subcortical. The systematic position of this latter genus has been uncertain though it has been most often placed in the tribe (or subtribe) Autaliini. Because of the striking differences in habitus and habits of members of these two genera, they have always been considered to be, at most, distantly related within the Bolitocharini. Study of the larvae and adults of both genera has revealed that they share a diverse set of derived features (eight in adults; ten in larvae). Many of these are unique to the Aleocharinae. These features are described and illustrated and a discussion of their systematic importance is provided. Four conclusions are drawn: (1) Placusa and Euvira form a monophyletic group; (2) these two genera are misplaced in the tribe Bolitocharini; (3) these two genera do not share derived features with members of any other described tribe of aleocharines; and (4) Placusa and Euvira must be grouped into a redefined tribal level taxon, the Placusini. The tribe Placusini is defined and its composition and systematic placement discussed.