Distribution of modern salt-marsh foraminifera in the Albemarle–Pamlico estuarine system of North Carolina, USA: Implications for sea-level research

We described the distributions of foraminifera from ten physiographically distinct salt marshes in the Albemarle–Pamlico estuarine system, North Carolina using 193 surface samples. We defined elevation-dependent ecological zones at individual sites using cluster analysis and detrended correspondence analysis. Additionally, seven principal biozones of salt-marsh foraminifera were identified that have distinctive spatial distributions reflecting a pattern of salinity regimes caused by the current configuration of barrier-island inlets. High salinity sites along the southern Outer Banks are associated with sub-tidal calcareous assemblages, low marshes dominated by Miliammina fusca and high marsh environments defined by Haplophragmoides wilberti, Trochammina inflata and Arenoparrella mexicana. In contrast, lower salinity marshes have Ammobaculites spp. in sub-tidal settings, Miliammina fusca-dominated low marshes and high marsh settings characterized by Jadammina macrescens. Spatial variation of foraminiferal populations and the potential for biozones to migrate in response to changing inlet configuration and salinity, suggests that datasets of modern salt-marsh foraminifera from multiple environments would be appropriate for reconstructing Holocene relative sea level in North Carolina.     

Environmental characteristics,landscape history and pressures on three coastal lagoons in the Southern Mediterranean Region: Merja Zerga (Morocco), Ghar El Melh (Tunisia) and Lake Manzala (Egypt)

Three North African coastal lagoons were selected as primary sites for integrated ecological and hydrological monitoring and modelling as part of the MELMARINA Project (see Flower & Thompson, 2009). The three sites, Merja Zerga (13.2 km², Morocco), Ghar El Melh (35.6 km², Tunisia) and Lake Manzala (c. 700 km², Egypt), are permanent water bodies with at least one well-defined connection with the sea. This article provides an account of each lagoon’s physical characteristics and recent development including the impacts of human activities. The two sites on the Mediterranean (Ghar El Melh and Lake Manzala) are characterised by small tidally driven variations in water level whilst Merga Zerga, on the Atlantic coast, experiences large tidally induced water level variations and so contains large inter-tidal environments. All the three lagoons receive freshwater inflows from their landward margins, varying in magnitude, seasonality and ecological significance. Freshwater inflows from drains strongly influence ecological conditions within Lake Manzala. All the three lagoons have significant biodiversity interest, especially for resident and migratory birds as well as fish, and support local human populations. Each lagoon experienced significant changes during the twentieth century possibly affecting declines in biodiversity value. These largely resulted from agricultural expansion and intensification and include reclamation and hydrological modifications which have both decreased freshwater inflows due to upstream diversions (Merja Zerga and Ghar El Melh) and increased the influx of freshwater through the return of irrigation drainage (Merja Zerga and Lake Manzala). All three sites experienced nutrient enrichment due to agricultural runoff and discharge of domestic wastewater. Industrial waste discharge is a particular, but not exclusive, problem for Lake Manzala. Problems of water quantity and quality will increase through the twenty-first century with increasing demands for water while effects of climate change will enhance freshwater scarcity. Conflicts between human and environmental uses of water will increase and unless improvements in water use efficiency and wastewater treatment can be brought about wetlands including coastal lagoons are likely to suffer further loss and degradation. These problems will be compounded by sea level rise. Guest editors: J. R. Thompson & R. J. Flower Hydro-ecological Monitoring and Modelling of North African Coastal Lagoons     

Integrating spatial data and shorebird nesting locations to predict the potential future impact of global warming on coastal habitats: A case study on Farasan Islands,Saudi Arabia

One of the expected effects of the global warming is changing coastal habitats by accelerating the rate of sea level rise. Coastal habitats support large number of marine and wetland species including shorebirds (plovers, sandpipers and allies). In this study, we investigate how coastal habitats may be impacted by sea level rise in the Farasan Islands, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We use Kentish plover Charadrius alexandrinus – a common coastal breeding shorebird – as an ecological model species to predict the influence of sea level rise. We found that any rise of sea level is likely to inundate 11% of Kentish plover nests. In addition, 5% of the coastal areas of Farasan Islands, which support 26% of Kentish plover nests, will be flooded, if sea level rises by one metre. Our results are constrained by the availability of data on both elevation and bird populations. Therefore, we recommend follow-up studies to model the impacts of sea level rise using different elevation scenarios, and the establishment of a monitoring programme for breeding shorebirds and seabirds in Farasan Islands to assess the impact of climate change on their populations.     

Effects of salinity and flooding on seedlings of cabbage palm (Sabal palmetto)

Sabal palmetto (Walt.) Lodd. ex Schultes (cabbage palm) dominates the coastal limit of many forests in North Florida and Georgia, United States. Changes in saltwater flooding due to sea level rise have been credicted with pushing the coastal limit of cabbage palms inland, eliminating regeneration before causing death of mature trees. Localized freshwater discharge along the coast causes different forest stands to experience tidal flooding with waters that differ in salinity. To elucidate the effect of such variation on regeneration failure under tidal flooding, we examined relative effects of flooding and salinity on the performance of cabbage palm seedlings. We examined the relationship between seedling establishment and degree of tidal inundation in the field, compared the ability of seedlings to withstand tidal flooding at two coastal sites that differed in tidal water salinity, and investigated the physiological responses of cabbage palm seedlings to salinity and flooding in a factorial greenhouse experiment. Seedling survival was inversely correlated with depth and frequency of tidal flooding. Survival of seedlings at a coastal site flooded by waters low in salinity [c. 3 parts per thousand (ppt)] was greater than that at a site flooded by waters higher in salinity (up to 23 ppt). Greenhouse experiments revealed that leaves of seedlings in pots flushed twice daily with salt solutions of 0 ppt and 8 ppt exhibited little difference in midmorning net CO₂ assimilation rates; those flushed with solutions of 15 ppt and 22 ppt, in contrast, had such low rates that they could not be detected. Net CO₂ assimilation rates also declined with increasing salinity for seedlings in pots that were continuously inundated. Continuous root zone inundation appeared to ameliorate effects of salinity on photosynthesis, presumably due to increased salt concentrations and possibly water deficits in periodically flushed pots. Such problems associated with periodic flushing by salt water may play a role in the mortality of cabbage palm seedlings in the field. The salinity range in which plant performance plummeted in the greenhouse was consistent with the salinity difference found between our two coastal study sites, suggesting that variation in tidal water salinity along the coast plays an important role in the ability of cabbage palm seedlings to withstand tidal flooding.     

Responses of Pinus clausa, Pinus serotina and Pinus taeda seedlings to anaerobic solution culture. I. Changes in growth and root morphology

Seedlings of pond pine ( Pinus serotina Michx.), sand pine [ P. clausa (Engelm.) Sarg.] and two edaphic seed sources of loblolly pine ( P. taeda L., dry- and wet-site seed sources) were grown in non-circulating, continuously flowing solution culture under aerobic (250 μ M O₂) and anaerobic (≤ 23 μ M O₂) conditions. Survival was 100% for all seedlings at 11 weeks. Although shoot height, biomass and leaf emergence of loblolly and pond pine seedlings were not significantly affected by 15 or 30 days of anaerobic growth conditions, root biomass was significantly reduced. Sand pine suffered the largest reduction in biomass, showing extensive root dieback and shoot chlorosis with retarded leaf development. These anaerobically induced symptoms of flooding injury were less severe in dry-site loblolly pine, and absent in wet-site loblolly and pond pine seedlings. Adventitious or new, secondary roots, and stem or taproot lenticels were particularly abundant under the 30-day anaerobic treatment in wet-site loblolly and pond pine seedlings, present to a lesser degree in dry-site loblolly pine, and nearly absent in sand pine seedlings. These results indicate that much of the immediate damage from flooding is due to the anoxic condition of the root rather than to the build-up of phytotoxins or soil nutrient imbalances. On the basis of overall seedling vigor, root plasticity and growth, we suggest the following flooding-tolerance/intolerance species (seed source) gradient: pond pine ≥ wet-site loblolly pine > dry-site loblolly pine > sand pine.     

Responses of Pinus clausa, Pinus serotina and Pinus taeda seedlings to anaerobic solution culture. II. Changes in tissue nutrient concentration and net acquisition

Fifteen or 30 days of anaerobic growth conditions significantly reduced shoot and root nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus, iron and manganese concentrations in seedlings of pond pine ( Pinus serotina Michx.), sand pine [ P. clausa (Engelm.) Sarg.] and drought-hardy and wet-site loblolly pine ( P. taeda L.) grown in a culture system using non-circulating, continuously flowing solution. Calcium and shoot magnesium levels were least affected by anaerobic growth conditions – largely reflecting the passive nature of their uptake. Shoot and root nutrient content (mg nutrient pot^-1) followed similar trends, with wet-site loblolly and pond pine seedlings least affected by anaerobic solution culture. Shoot biomass of wet-site loblolly and pond pine seedlings was not affected by anaerobiosis, suggesting an increase in shoot nutrient utilization efficiency. Root biomass was significantly reduced by 15 or 30 days of anaerobiosis, with sand pine exhibiting the largest reduction in root dry weight (57%).
These results suggest that anaerobiosis interferes with net nutrient acquisition, even under the high nutrient conditions provided by solution culture. Sand pine suffered the largest reductions in shoot and root biomass and nutrient concentrations, showing earlier symptoms of waterlogging injury and nutrient stress than drought-hardy loblolly pine seedlings. Whether net nutrient acquisition decreased because of the reduction in root surface area available for absorption and/or reduced uptake efficiency cannot be ascertained from these data.     

Desiccation Tolerance and Global Change: Implications for Tropical Bryophytes in Lowland Forests

Global change puts an increasing pressure on tropical forests and their inherent diversity by the risk of longer droughts and drier microclimatic conditions within the forest. How organisms will respond is uncertain, especially for organisms highly depending on their microclimatic environment such as bryophytes. An adequate tolerance to desiccation is important to face these changes, however, little is known for tropical bryophytes. We investigated for the first time the desiccation tolerance of epiphytic bryophytes from contrasting microsites at the tropical lowland forest in French Guiana. Using chlorophyll‐fluorescence (F_v/F_m) as an indicator of recovery, we tested: (1) desiccation tolerance for short (3 d) and long (9 d) desiccation events; (2) different desiccation intensities; and (3) recovery by rehydration with water vapor. Species from the canopy were well adapted to desiccation events. Thirteen of 18 species maintained more than 75 percent of their photosynthetic capacity after recovery at the strongest desiccation treatment of 9 d at 43 percent relative humidity (RH). In contrast, species from the understory were sensitive and withstood desiccation only at humid conditions of 75 percent RH and higher. The photosystem of the studied bryophytes was reactivated efficiently in equilibration with water vapor only—a yet neglected phenomenon in bryology. A novel introduced desiccation tolerance index allows global comparison of desiccation tolerances and highlights the sensitivity of understory species. Our results suggest that decreasing humidity caused by climate change and forest degradation could be a concerning threat for understory species.     

Blue intensity as a temperature proxy in the eastern United States: A pilot study from a southern disjunct population of Picea rubens (Sarg.)

Annual surface air temperatures across the eastern United States (US) have increased by more than 1 °C within the last century, with the recent decades marked by an unprecedented warming trend. Tree-rings have long been used as a proxy for climate reconstruction, but few truly temperature-sensitive trees have been documented for the eastern US, much less the Appalachian Mountains in the Southeast. Here, we measure blue intensity (BI) and ring width (RWI) in red spruce growing at the southernmost latitudinal range margin of the species on the North Carolina-Tennessee border to test the efficacy of using either metric as a temperature proxy in the eastern US. The BI and RWI chronologies spanned 1883–2008 and had an interseries correlations of 0.42 and 0.54, respectively, but time series were trimmed to the period 1950–2008 due to low sample depth. We discovered strong, positive, and stable correlations between both current-year early fall (September–October) T_max (r = 0.62; p < 0.001) and T_mean (r = 0.51; p < 0.001) and ΔBI during the period 1950–2008, but found no significant relationships between temperature and RWI. We show BI metrics measured in red spruce to be a promising temperature proxy for the southern Appalachian Mountain region. Future research should focus on testing [1] the efficacy of using BI on red spruce collected from across the species range, and [2] the potential for using BI as a temperature proxy in other conifers distributed in the eastern US.     

Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review

Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by climate change. We review the state of knowledge of mangrove vulnerability and responses to predicted climate change and consider adaptation options. Based on available evidence, of all the climate change outcomes, relative sea-level rise may be the greatest threat to mangroves. Most mangrove sediment surface elevations are not keeping pace with sea-level rise, although longer term studies from a larger number of regions are needed. Rising sea-level will have the greatest impact on mangroves experiencing net lowering in sediment elevation, where there is limited area for landward migration. The Pacific Islands mangroves have been demonstrated to be at high risk of substantial reductions. There is less certainty over other climate change outcomes and mangrove responses. More research is needed on assessment methods and standard indicators of change in response to effects from climate change, while regional monitoring networks are needed to observe these responses to enable educated adaptation. Adaptation measures can offset anticipated mangrove losses and improve resistance and resilience to climate change. Coastal planning can adapt to facilitate mangrove migration with sea-level rise. Management of activities within the catchment that affect long-term trends in the mangrove sediment elevation, better management of other stressors on mangroves, rehabilitation of degraded mangrove areas, and increases in systems of strategically designed protected area networks that include mangroves and functionally linked ecosystems through representation, replication and refugia, are additional adaptation options.     

Morphological and biomechanical responses of floodplain willows to tidal flooding and salinity

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Variable response of three Trifolium repens ecotypes to soil flooding by seawater

Background and Aims

Despite concerns about the impact of rising sea levels and storm surge events on coastal ecosystems, there is remarkably little information on the response of terrestrial coastal plant species to seawater inundation. The aim of this study was to elucidate responses of a glycophyte (white clover, Trifolium repens) to short-duration soil flooding by seawater and recovery following leaching of salts.

Methods

Using plants cultivated from parent ecotypes collected from a natural soil salinity gradient, the impact of short-duration seawater soil flooding (8 or 24 h) on short-term changes in leaf salt ion and organic solute concentrations was examined, together with longer term impacts on plant growth (stolon elongation) and flowering.

Key Results

There was substantial Cl^– and Na⁺ accumulation in leaves, especially for plants subjected to 24 h soil flooding with seawater, but no consistent variation linked to parent plant provenance. Proline and sucrose concentrations also increased in plants following seawater flooding of the soil. Plant growth and flowering were reduced by longer soil immersion times (seawater flooding followed by drainage and freshwater inputs), but plants originating from more saline soil responded less negatively than those from lower salinity soil.

Conclusions

The accumulation of proline and sucrose indicates a potential for solute accumulation as a response to the osmotic imbalance caused by salt ions, while variation in growth and flowering responses between ecotypes points to a natural adaptive capacity for tolerance of short-duration seawater soil flooding in T. repens. Consequently, it is suggested that selection for tolerant ecotypes is possible should the predicted increase in frequency of storm surge flooding events occur.     

Global vegetation models: incorporating transient changes to structure and composition

Abstract. We describe an approach for developing a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) that accounts for transient changes in vegetation distribution over a decadal time scale. The DGVM structure is based on a linkage between an equilibrium global vegetation model and smaller scale ecosystem dynamics modules that simulate the rate of vegetation change. Vegetation change is classified into four basic types, based largely on the projected change in above-ground biomass of the vegetation. These four types of change are: (1) dieback of forest, shrubland or grassland; (2) successional replacement within forest, shrubland or grassland; (3) invasion of forest, shrubland or grassland; (4) change in tree/grass ratio. We then propose an approach in which the appropriate ecosystem dynamics module for each type of change is applied and the grid cells of the global model updated accordingly. An approach for accounting for fire, as an example of a disturbance which may strongly influence the rate and spatial pattern of forest dieback, is incorporated. We also discuss data needs for the development, calibration and validation of the model.     

Past, current and future thermal profiles of green turtle nesting grounds: Implications from climate change

Sex determination and hatching success in sea turtles is temperature dependent and as a result global warming poses a threat to sea turtles. Warmer sand temperatures may skew sea turtle population′s sex ratios towards predominantly females and decrease hatching success. Therefore, understanding the rates at which sand temperatures are likely to increase as climate change progresses is warranted. We recorded sand temperature and used historical sea surface and air temperature to model past and to predict future sand temperature under various scenarios of global warming at key sea turtle nesting grounds (n = 7) used by the northern Great Barrier Reef (nGBR) green turtle, Chelonia mydas, population. Reconstructed temperatures from 1990 to the present suggest that sand temperatures at the nesting sites studied have not changed significantly during the last 18 years. Current thermal profile at the nesting grounds suggests a bias towards female hatchling production into this population. Inter-beach thermal variance was observed at some nesting grounds with open areas in the sand dune at northern facing beaches having the warmest incubating environments. Our model projections suggest that a near complete feminization of hatchling output into this population will occur by 2070 under an extreme scenario of climate change (A1T emission scenario). Importantly, we found that some nesting grounds will still produce male hatchlings, under the most extreme scenario of climate change, this finding differs from predictions for other locations. Information from this study provides a better understanding of possible future changes in hatching success and sex ratios at each site and identifies important male producing regions. This allowed us to suggest strategies that can be used at a local scale to offset some of the impacts of warmer incubating temperatures to sea turtles.     

Fine-root respiration in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) forest exposed to elevated CO2 and N fertilization

Forest ecosystems release large amounts of carbon to the atmosphere from fine-root respiration (R(r)), but the control of this flux and its temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) are poorly understood. We attempted to: (1) identify the factors limiting this flux using additions of glucose and an electron transport uncoupler (carbonyl cyanide m-chlorophenylhydrazone); and (2) improve yearly estimates of R(r) by directly measuring its Q(10)in situ using temperature-controlled cuvettes buried around intact, attached roots. The proximal limits of R(r) of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) trees exposed to free-air CO(2) enrichment (FACE) and N fertilization were seasonally variable; enzyme capacity limited R(r) in the winter, and a combination of substrate supply and adenylate availability limited R(r) in summer months. The limiting factors of R(r) were not affected by elevated CO(2) or N fertilization. Elevated CO(2 )increased annual stand-level R(r) by 34% whereas the combination of elevated CO(2) and N fertilization reduced R(r) by 40%. Measurements of in situ R(r) with high temporal resolution detected diel patterns that were correlated with canopy photosynthesis with a lag of 1 d or less as measured by eddy covariance, indicating a dynamic link between canopy photosynthesis and root respiration. These results suggest that R(r) is coupled to daily canopy photosynthesis and increases with carbon allocation below ground.     

Shoreline changes in a rising sea level context: The example of Grande Glorieuse,Scattered Islands,Western Indian Ocean

This paper provides baseline data on absolute and relative sea level variations and shoreline changes in the Scattered Islands region of the Indian Ocean, based on aerial image analysis, satellite altimetry and field observations and in situ measurements from the 2009 and 2011 TAAF scientific expeditions. The analysis shows the importance of regular observations and monitoring of these islands to better understand reef island responses to climate stressors. We show that Grande Glorieuse Island has increased in area by 7.5 ha between 1989 and 2003, predominantly as a result of shoreline accretion: accretion occurred over 47% of shoreline length, whereas 26% was stable and 28% was eroded. Topographic transects and field observations show that the accretion is due to sediment transfer from the reef outer slopes to the reef flat and then to the beach. This accretion occurred in a context of sea level rise: sea level has risen by about 6 cm in the last twenty years and the island height is probably stable or very slowly subsiding. This island expansion during a period of rising sea level demonstrates that sea level rise is not the primary factor controlling the shoreline changes. This paper highlights the key role of non-climate factors in changes in island area, especially sediment availability and transport. We also evidence rotation of the island, underscoring the highly dynamic nature of reef islands.     

Prehistoric Pinus woodland dynamics in an upland landscape in northern Scotland: the roles of climate change and human impact

Pollen, microscopic charcoal, palaeohydrological and dendrochronological analyses are applied to a radiocarbon and tephrochronologically dated mid Holocene (ca. 8500–3000 cal b.p.) peat sequence with abundant fossil Pinus (pine) wood. The Pinus populations on peat fluctuated considerably over the period in question. Colonisation by Pinus from ca. 7900–7600 cal b.p. appears to have had no specific environmental trigger; it was probably determined by the rate of migration from particular populations. The second phase, at ca. 5000–4400 cal b.p., was facilitated by anthropogenic interference that reduced competition from other trees. The pollen record shows two Pinus declines. The first at ca. 6200–5500 cal b.p. was caused by a series of rapid and frequent climatic shifts. The second, the so-called pine decline, was very gradual (ca. 4200–3300 cal b.p.) at Loch Farlary and may not have been related to climate change as is often supposed. Low intensity but sustained grazing pressures were more important. Throughout the mid Holocene, the frequency and intensity of burning in these open Pinus–Calluna woods were probably highly sensitive to hydrological (climatic) change. Axe marks on several trees are related to the mid to late Bronze Age, i.e., long after the trees had died.     

Nest and breeding population abundance of Least Terns: assessing bias and variation in survey timing and methods

Methods commonly used to estimate the number of nests and size of the breeding population at colonies of Least Terns (Sternula antillarum) and other waterbirds include walk‐through counts of nests (ground‐nest counts) and counts of incubating adults from the colony perimeter (incubating‐adult counts). The bias and variance of different methods and the comparability of repeated surveys versus once‐annual censuses are poorly understood. Our objectives were to assess (1) the potential bias and variation of the more rapid incubating‐adult counts compared to the time‐intensive, and presumably more accurate, ground‐nest counts, and (2) how accurately a once‐annual census captured peak nesting abundance. We studied nine Least Tern colonies at Cape Lookout National Seashore (CALO), North Carolina, from April to August 2010–2012. We analyzed observer and survey method agreement with concordance correlation coefficients (ρ_c). We deployed time‐lapse cameras at 156 nests and used repeated‐measures logistic regression to determine if the proportion of time spent incubating varied with colony, time of day, or time of season. We found substantial agreement in abundance estimates of Least Tern nests and incubating adults between observers and survey methods, and among different times of day and seasons (all comparisons ρ_c > 0.97). Least Terns incubated eggs 94% of the time on average during daylight hours, irrespective of colony, nesting stage, or month. Although the nesting peak at CALO occurred during the recommended census period for Least Terns, abundance estimates for surveys conducted at different times during that period varied by as much as 39%. We recommend conducting incubating‐adult counts to estimate nest and breeding population abundance of Least Terns or other waterbirds when vegetation or dunes do not obstruct views of nesting colonies. In addition, given the variation in abundance estimates for surveys conducted at different times during the recommended survey period, incubating‐adult counts should be performed at least twice during the census period, with the maximum count reported as peak nest abundance.     

Zonation of spiders (Araneae) and carabid beetles (Coleoptera: Carabidae) in island salt marshes at the North Sea coast

The specific communities of spiders and carabid beetles of island salt marsh habitats of the East Frisian Island chain at the German North Sea coast were investigated. During the vegetation periods of 1997 and 1998 three pitfall trapping transects were installed on the islands of Borkum and Wangerooge. Within the salt marshes, transects extended from 0 m to 175 m. Elevation gradients varied between 10 cm and 232 cm above MHT (mean high tide). On Borkum, 35 traps were exposed in two transects, on Wangerooge 25 traps were placed in one transect. Three to five elevations above MHT were investigated per transect, each one with five traps. Highest species numbers were recorded in the higher elevated salt marshes. In contrast, highest activity values were noticed in the medium elevated salt marshes. Within both groups, spiders and carabids, four communities were distinguished by indirect gradient analysis. Indicator species were assigned to the different communities that were mainly assorted to different elevations of the salt marshes. Thus, the communities of both taxa corresponded well to the vegetational formations. The importance of sea level rise for structuring the communities of salt marsh arthropods is discussed. Overall, still great uncertainties exist on how arthropod communities and salt marshes themselves will develop.     

Physiological basis of interactive responses to temperature and salinity in coastal marine invertebrate: Implications for responses to warming

Developing physiological mechanistic models to predict species’ responses to climate‐driven environmental variables remains a key endeavor in ecology. Such approaches are challenging, because they require linking physiological processes with fitness and contraction or expansion in species’ distributions. We explore those links for coastal marine species, occurring in regions of freshwater influence (ROFIs) and exposed to changes in temperature and salinity. First, we evaluated the effect of temperature on hemolymph osmolality and on the expression of genes relevant for osmoregulation in larvae of the shore crab Carcinus maenas. We then discuss and develop a hypothetical model linking osmoregulation, fitness, and species expansion/contraction toward or away from ROFIs. In C. maenas, high temperature led to a threefold increase in the capacity to osmoregulate in the first and last larval stages (i.e., those more likely to experience low salinities). This result matched the known pattern of survival for larval stages where the negative effect of low salinity on survival is mitigated at high temperatures (abbreviated as TMLS). Because gene expression levels did not change at low salinity nor at high temperatures, we hypothesize that the increase in osmoregulatory capacity (OC) at high temperature should involve post‐translational processes. Further analysis of data suggested that TMLS occurs in C. maenas larvae due to the combination of increased osmoregulation (a physiological mechanism) and a reduced developmental period (a phenological mechanisms) when exposed to high temperatures. Based on information from the literature, we propose a model for C. maenas and other coastal species showing the contribution of osmoregulation and phenological mechanisms toward changes in range distribution under coastal warming. In species where the OC increases with temperature (e.g., C. maenas larvae), osmoregulation should contribute toward expansion if temperature increases; by contrast in those species where osmoregulation is weaker at high temperature, the contribution should be toward range contraction.