Evolutionarily significant units of the critically endangered leaf frog Pithecopus ayeaye (Anura,Phyllomedusidae) are not effectively preserved by the Brazilian protected areas network

Protected areas (PAs) are essential for biodiversity conservation, but their coverage is considered inefficient for the preservation of all species. Many species are subdivided into evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) and the effectiveness of PAs in protecting them needs to be investigated. We evaluated the usefulness of the Brazilian PAs network in protecting ESUs of the critically endangered Pithecopus ayeaye through ongoing climate change. This species occurs in a threatened mountaintop ecosystem known as campos rupestres. We used multilocus DNA sequences to delimit geographic clusters, which were further validated as ESUs with a coalescent approach. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate spatial changes in ESUs’ potential distributions, and a gap analysis was carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the Brazilian PAs network to protect P. ayeaye in the face of climate changes. We tested the niche overlap between ESUs to gain insights for potential management alternatives for the species. Pithecopus ayeaye contains at least three ESUs isolated in distinct mountain regions, and one of them is not protected by any PA. There are no climatic niche differences between the units, and only 4% of the suitable potential area of the species is protected in present and future projections. The current PAs are not effective in preserving the intraspecific diversity of P. ayeaye in its present and future range distributions. The genetic structure of P. ayeaye could represent a typical pattern in campos rupestres endemics, which should be considered for evaluating its conservation status.     

Conservation of Chinese Theaceae species under future climate and land use changes

Aim

Climate and land use changes are two major pervasive and growing global causes of rapid changes in the distribution patterns of biodiversity, challenging the future effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), which were mainly designed based on a static view of biodiversity. Therefore, evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas for protecting the species threatened by climate and land use change is critical for future biodiversity conservation.

Location

China.

Methods

Here, using distributions of 200 Chinese Theaceae species and ensemble species distribution models, we identified species threatened by future climate and land use change (i.e. species with predicted loss of suitable habitat ≥30%) under scenarios incorporating climate change, land use change and dispersal. We then estimate the richness distribution patterns of threatened species and identify priority conservation areas and conservation gaps of the current PA network.

Results

Our results suggest that 36.30%–51.85% of Theaceae species will be threatened by future climate and land use conditions and that although the threatened species are mainly distributed at low latitudes in China under both current and future periods, the mean richness of the threatened species per grid cell will decline by 0.826–3.188 species by the 2070s. Moreover, we found that these priority conservation areas are highly fragmented and that the current PA network only covers 14.21%–20.87% of the ‘areas worth exploring’ and 6.91%–7.91% of the ‘areas worth attention’.

Main Conclusions

Our findings highlight the necessity of establishing new protected areas and ecological corridors in priority conservation areas to protect the threatened species. Moreover, our findings also highlight the importance of taking into consideration the potential threatened species under future climate and land use conditions when designating priority areas for biodiversity conservation.     

Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land-cover changes

Ongoing climate change has caused well-documented displacements of species' geographic distribution to newly climatically suitable areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) are widely used to project such climate-induced changes but typically ignore species' interspecific interactions that might facilitate or prevent its establishment in new areas. Here, we projected the change in the distribution of Juçara Palm (Euterpe edulis Mart., Arecaceae), a neotropical threatened palm, taking into consideration its ecological interactions. We run ENMs of E. edulis, plus its known seed dispersers (15 bird species) and predators (19 birds and mammals) under current and future climatic conditions. Additionally, for E. edulis, we removed deforested areas from the model. When considering only climate, climate change has a positive impact on E. edulis, with a predicted westward expansion and a modest southward contraction, with a 26% net gain in distribution by 2060. When removing deforested areas, however, climate change harms E. edulis, with a 66% predicted net distribution loss. Within the palm's distribution in this more realistic model, there is also a predicted reduction in the richness of its dispersers and predators. We conclude that the possible benefits of climate change to E. edulis' distribution are overshadowed by widespread habitat loss, and that global change is likely to disrupt some of its ecological interactions. The outcome of the interplay between the negative impact of the loss of dispersers, and the benefit of the loss of predators, is unclear, but the large contraction of E. edulis' range predicted here foresees a dim future for the species. Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.     

Protecting a single endangered species and meeting multiple conservation goals: an approach with Guaiacum sanctum in Yucatan Peninsula,Mexico

Aim New protected areas should consider safeguarding high conservation value sites based on multiple criteria and not just the presence of a single endangered or charismatic species. However, the extent to which complementary criteria coincide is usually unknown. We use the case of Guaiacum sanctum (Zygopyllaceae), an endangered timber tree species, to explore whether the protection of forests where this species is most abundant would meet other complementary conservation goals, such as capturing regional plant biodiversity, protecting other threatened/endemic species or safeguarding ecosystem services. Location Yucatan Peninsula, southern Mexico. Methods We conducted an analysis of the structure, composition and diversity of tree communities (including stems ≥5 cm dbh) at eight G. sanctum forest sites. We identified endemic and threatened tree species and quantified above‐ground tree biomass and carbon storage in these G. sanctum forests. Results Guaiacum sanctum forests contain 35–59 tree species on plots as small as 1000 m². The species composition of tree communities changed rapidly (high β‐diversity) across soil boundaries and rainfall regimes. Twenty‐one endemic and eight threatened tree species were recorded in our inventories. Individuals of G. sanctum represented up to 55% of the above‐ground carbon for trees ≥5 cm dbh. The high basal area of G. sanctum forests plus the high wood density, abundance, large size and longevity (more than 500 years) of G. sanctum and other tree species enhance the potential importance of these forests for carbon storage. Main conclusions A conservation strategy focused on protecting important populations of G. sanctum in the Yucatan Peninsula would have significant co‐benefits for conservation of regional tree species biodiversity and provision of critical ecosystem services. Our study illustrates a multiple criteria approach useful for the selection of areas with high conservation value on the basis of endemic, threatened species, species richness and ecosystem services.     

Priority areas for conservation of primates in a threatened Amazonian savanna

Primates are globally recognized as an important component of biodiversity, however, more than half of primate species in the world are threatened and agriculture expansion is one of the main threats. Brazil has one of the largest networks of protected areas (PAs) in the world, but there are some conservation gaps, such as the Amazonian savannas. We aim to identify a network of priority areas to conserve a Brazilian Amazonian savanna highly threatened by agriculture expansion, by using seven primate species and four vegetation types as targets. We constructed species distribution models (SDMs) for the primates and used a Systematic Conservation Planning approach. We defined as a quantitative conservation target the proportion of the distribution of each primate species within the network according to traits related to their vulnerability to extinction. In addition, we set a target of including at least 30% of each savanna type within priority areas. We created a map of potential use of the land for agriculture and another of environmental risk, which were included as costs in the decision process, and together with the SDMs and vegetation types, identified the network of priority areas by using the software Marxan. We evaluated the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as establishing Conservation Units (e.g. reserves managed by the government), or implementing community-based conservation actions in each priority area. Additionally, we estimated the economic investment (US$/year) required to establish Conservation Units across the priority areas. Conservation targets for primates and vegetation types were met by protecting 3,240 km² of the Savannas of Amapá. An investment of approximately US$958,122/year over five years is required to turn these priority areas into Conservation Units, however, we propose other strategies such as conservation on community lands and public policies. All these strategies would allow for protecting forest cover and the heterogeneous environments that are suitable for primates and other biodiversity components.     

The Effects of Governmental Protected Areas and Social Initiatives for Land Protection on the Conservation of Mexican Amphibians

Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of micro-endemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs.     

Development of microsatellite markers for Pasania edulis (Makino) Makino, one of the dominant species of lucidphyllous forests in southern Kyushu, Japan

Pasania edulis (Makino) Makino is a Fagaceous tree species endemic to Japan and one of the dominant species in lucidphyllous forests in southern Kyushu, Japan. Recently, P. edulis was attacked by ambrosia beetles, Platypus quereivorus (Murayama) and mass mortality occurred in several areas in southern Kyushu. We isolated and characterized ten microsatellite loci in this species to reveal the genetic structure and gene flow. The number of alleles ranged from 3 to 11 and expected heterozygosities from 0.3761 to 0.8346. The markers described here will be useful for investigating the genetic diversity, genetic structure and gene flow, and planning for conservation of viable population of P. edulis.     

How far a protected area contributes to conserve habitat species composition and population structure of endangered African tree species (Benin,West Africa)

The Pendjari Biosphere Reserve located in the Sudanian zone of Bénin, is a protected area well managed, but mainly aimed at wild animal conservation. This study assessed its effectiveness to conserve habitat species composition and population structure of three endangered African tree species: Afzelia africana Sm., Pterocarpus erinaceus Poir. and Khaya senegalensis (Desv.) A. Juss. We randomly sampled 120 plots in the protected and surrounding unprotected habitats by inventorying plant species. For the three target species, we estimated adult and juvenile densities and recorded size classes. According to floristic composition four habitats groups were recognized in relation to human disturbance, vegetation type, and moisture. These were protected savannas, unprotected savannas, old fallows and gallery forests. The estimated adult densities of A. africana were similar between protected (14 ± 1.2 tree/ha) and unprotected savannas (17 ± 0.9 tree/ha) while for P. erinaceus the adult density was significantly higher in protected (12 ± 3.7 tree/ha) than in unprotected savannas (5 ± 1.9 tree/ha). Estimated adult density of K. senegalensis was also significantly higher in protected gallery forest (40 ± 5.8 tree/ha) than in unprotected one (29 ± 4.8 tree/ha). Juvenile densities of A. africana, K. senegalensis and P. erinaceus were higher in protected habitats than in unprotected ones but the difference was not significant. Skewness coefficient indicated that populations of investigated trees were declining in their protected habitats. However, in the case of A. africana and K. senegalensis populations seemed to be mostly threatened in the protected area. We concluded that although the studied protected area is effective to conserve some habitats species compositions, protection is not sufficient to guarantee future conservation of some threatened tree species.     

The future representativeness of Madagascar's protected area network in the face of climate change

With many species predicted to respond to a changing climate by shifting their distribution to climatically suitable areas, the effectiveness of static protected areas (PAs) is in question. The Madagascan PA network area has quadrupled over the past 15 years, and, although conservation planning techniques were employed to prioritise suitable areas for protection during this process, climate change impacts were not considered. We make use of species distribution models for 750 Madagascan vertebrate species to assess the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species richness across Madagascar, (2) species gain, loss and turnover in Madagascar's PAs and (3) PA network representativeness. Results indicate that Madagascar is predicted to experience substantial shifts in species richness, with most PAs predicted to experience high rates of species turnover. Provided there are no barriers to species movements, the representativeness of the current PA network will remain high for the species that are predicted to survive changes in climate by 2070, suggesting that little benefit will be gained from establishing new PAs. However, this rests on the assumption of mobility through areas currently characterised by fragmentation and anthropogenic activity, something that will require considerable expansion in conservation efforts in order to achieve.     

Densities and population sizes of raptors in Uganda’s conservation areas

Projected increases in Africa's human population over the next 40 years point to further, large-scale conversion of natural habitats into farmland, with far-reaching consequences for raptor species, some of which are now largely restricted to protected areas (PAs). To assess the importance of PAs for raptors in Uganda, we conducted an annual road survey through savanna, pastoral and agricultural land during 2008–2015. Here, we present density estimates for 34 diurnal raptor species, 17 of which were encountered largely or entirely within PAs. These included seven out of eight globally threatened or near-threatened species surveyed. Based mainly on published demographic values, we converted density estimates (birds 100 km?2) to numbers of adult pairs, for 10 resident, savanna-dependent species. We then estimated adult population sizes within conservation areas (individual PAs and clusters of contiguous PAs), based on the area of savanna in each site. This suggested that two threatened residents, Martial Eagle Polemaetus bellicosus and Lappet-faced Vulture Torgos tracheliotos, have national breeding populations of just 53–75 and 74–105 pairs, respectively. A third species, White-headed Vulture Trigonoceps occipitalis, may have a breeding population of just 22–32 pairs. In each case, at least 90% of pairs are thought to reside within Uganda's five largest conservation areas. In three cases our estimates of pair density were markedly lower than in other studies, while in six cases they were broadly consistent with published findings, often derived using more intensive survey methods. Further work is required to determine the accuracy of our estimates for individual conservation areas, and to assess the long-term viability of Uganda's threatened raptor populations.     

Predicting how adaptation to climate change could affect ecological conservation: secondary impacts of shifting agricultural suitability

Aim:  Ecosystems face numerous well‐documented threats from climate change. The well‐being of people also is threatened by climate change, most prominently by reduced food security. Human adaptation to food scarcity, including shifting agricultural zones, will create new threats for natural ecosystems. We investigated how shifts in crop suitability because of climate change may overlap currently protected areas (PAs) and priority sites for PA expansion in South Africa. Predicting the locations of suitable climate conditions for crop growth will assist conservationists and decision‐makers in planning for climate change. Location:  South Africa. Methods:  We modelled climatic suitability in 2055 for maize and wheat cultivation, two extensively planted, staple crops, and overlaid projected changes with PAs and PA expansion priorities. Results:  Changes in winter climate could make an additional 2 million ha of land suitable for wheat cultivation, while changes in summer climate could expand maize suitability by up to 3.5 million ha. Conversely, 3 million ha of lands currently suitable for wheat production are predicted to become climatically unsuitable, along with 13 million ha for maize. At least 328 of 834 (39%) PAs are projected to be affected by altered wheat or maize suitability in their buffer zones. Main conclusions:  Reduced crop suitability and food scarcity in subsistence areas may lead to the exploitation of PAs for food and fuel. However, if reduced crop suitability leads to agricultural abandonment, this may afford opportunities for ecological restoration. Expanded crop suitability in PA buffer zones could lead to additional isolation of PAs if portions of newly suitable land are converted to agriculture. These results suggest that altered crop suitability will be widespread throughout South Africa, including within and around lands identified as conservation priorities. Assessing how climate change will affect crop suitability near PAs is a first step towards proactively identifying potential conflicts between human adaptation and conservation planning.     

Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change

Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%–18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long‐established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14–55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity.     

Tree genetic resources at risk in South America: A spatial threat assessment to prioritize populations for conservation

Background

Humans threat the populations of tree species by overexploitation, deforestation, land use change, and climate change. We present a novel threat assessment at intraspecific level to support the conservation of genetic resources of 80 socioeconomically viable tree species in South America. In this assessment, we evaluate the threat status of Ecogeographic Range Segments (ERSs). ERSs are groups of populations of a specific species in a certain ecological zone of a particular grid cell of a species’ geographic occupancy.

Methods

We used species location records to determine the species distributions and species‐specific ERSs. We distinguished eight threat situations to assess the risk of extirpation of the ERSs of all 80 species. These threat situations were determined by large or little tree cover, low or high human pressure, and low or high climate change impact. Available layers of tree cover and threats were used to determine the levels of fragmentation and direct human pressure. Maxent niche modelling with two Global Circulation Models helped determining climate change impact by the 2050s.

Results

When all 80 species are considered, in total, 59% of the ERSs are threatened by little tree cover or high human pressure. When climate change is also considered, then 71‐73% of the ERSs are threatened. When an increased risk of extirpation of populations outside protected areas is considered, then 84–86% of the ERSs are threatened. Seven species warrant special attention because all their ERSs are threatened across their whole distribution in South America: Balfourondendron riedelianum, Cariniana legalis, Dalbergia nigra, Handroanthus pulcherrimus, Pachira quintana, Prosopis flexuosa, and Prosopis pallida.

Conclusions

Our results confirm the urgency to set up a regional action plan for the conservation of tree genetic resources in South America. With this threat assessment, we aim to support governments and organizations who are taking up this task.

     

Land‐use change outweighs projected effects of changing rainfall on tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa

Global change will likely affect savanna and forest structure and distributions, with implications for diversity within both biomes. Few studies have examined the impacts of both expected precipitation and land use changes on vegetation structure in the future, despite their likely severity. Here, we modeled tree cover in sub‐Saharan Africa, as a proxy for vegetation structure and land cover change, using climatic, edaphic, and anthropic data (R² = 0.97). Projected tree cover for the year 2070, simulated using scenarios that include climate and land use projections, generally decreased, both in forest and savanna, although the directionality of changes varied locally. The main driver of tree cover changes was land use change; the effects of precipitation change were minor by comparison. Interestingly, carbon emissions mitigation via increasing biofuels production resulted in decreases in tree cover, more severe than scenarios with more intense precipitation change, especially within savannas. Evaluation of tree cover change against protected area extent at the WWF Ecoregion scale suggested areas of high biodiversity and ecosystem services concern. Those forests most vulnerable to large decreases in tree cover were also highly protected, potentially buffering the effects of global change. Meanwhile, savannas, especially where they immediately bordered forests (e.g. West and Central Africa), were characterized by a dearth of protected areas, making them highly vulnerable. Savanna must become an explicit policy priority in the face of climate and land use change if conservation and livelihoods are to remain viable into the next century.     

Spatial conservation planning under climate change: Using species distribution modeling to assess priority for adaptive management of Fagus crenata in Japan

Protected areas are the basis of modern conservation systems, but current climate change causes gaps between protected areas and the species distribution ranges. To mitigate the impact of climate change on species distribution ranges, revision of protected areas are necessary. Alternatively, active management such as excluding competitive species or transplanting target species would be effective. In this study, we assessed optimal actions (revision of protected areas or active management) in each geographical region to establish an effective spatial conservation plan in Japan. Gaps between the protected areas and future potential habitats were assessed using species distribution models and 20 future climate simulations. Fagus crenata, an endemic and dominant species in Japan, was used as a target species. Potential habitats within the protected areas were predicted to decrease from 22,122 km² at present to 12,309 km² under future climate conditions. Sustainable potential habitats (consistent potential habitats both at present and in future) without the protected areas extended to 13,208 km², and were mainly found in northeast Japan. These results suggest that, in northeast Japan, revisions to protected areas would be effective in preserving sustainable potential habitats under future climate change. However, the potential habitats of southwestern Japan, in which populations were genetically different from northeastern populations, were predicted to virtually disappear both within and outside of protected areas. Active management is thus necessary in southwestern Japan to ensure intraspecific genetic diversity under future climate change.     

Climate change threatens European conservation areas

Europe has the world's most extensive network of conservation areas. Conservation areas are selected without taking into account the effects of climate change. How effectively would such areas conserve biodiversity under climate change? We assess the effectiveness of protected areas and the Natura 2000 network in conserving a large proportion of European plant and terrestrial vertebrate species under climate change. We found that by 2080, 58?±?2.6% of the species would lose suitable climate in protected areas, whereas losses affected 63?±?2.1% of the species of European concern occurring in Natura 2000 areas. Protected areas are expected to retain climatic suitability for species better than unprotected areas (P?相似文献   

A spatial multicriteria decision analysis for selecting priority sites for plant species restoration: a case study from the Chilean biodiversity hotspot

Developing conservation strategies to restore populations of threatened species has been signaled as an important task by the Convention on Biological Diversity 2011–2020 targets. Species are being threatened not only by habitat loss and fragmentation but increasingly by climate change. As resources for conservation are often limited, and restoration is among the most expensive conservation strategies, developing approaches that help in the prioritization of areas for restoration efforts is a critical task. In this study, we propose a spatial multicriteria decision analysis (SMCDA) framework for identifying potential areas for plant species restoration initiatives that can explicitly take into account future climatic change. As a way to show how the framework can be applied, we took advantage of freely available niche modeling software and geospatial information to identify regional‐scale priority areas for restoration of two threatened endemic tree species (i.e. Bielschmiedia miersii and Pouteria splendens) of the “Chilean Winter Rainfall‐Valdivian Forest” Hotspot. The SMCDA framework allowed us not only to identify priority areas for species restoration but also to analyze how different environmental conditions and land‐use types may affect the selection of areas for species restoration. Our analysis suggests that the inclusion of climate change is a key factor to assess the potential areas for species restoration because species may respond differentially to future climatic conditions. This framework is conceived to be used as a complementary approach to available landscape‐scale spatial conservation planning tools.     

Impact of terrestrial protected areas on the fish diversity and habitat quality: Evidence from tropical river Pranhita,India

The conservation and management of inland fish and freshwater ecosystems immensely contribute to global sustainable development. The existing ‘Protected Area’ (PA) network does not represent freshwater resources well and seldom considers its fish communities, while designating PAs. A study was undertaken to quantitatively assess the role played by the three terrestrial PAs (IUCN category IV) in conserving fish diversity and preserving habitat quality in the river reaches bordering the three PAs of the river Pranhita. It is a unique river system in the Indian Deccan Plateau in terms of fish diversity and community structure. Field surveys were conducted during the non-monsoon and monsoon seasons in 2020–21, that recorded 53 species including endemic and threatened fishes from river Pranhita, which represent more than one-third the number of fish species of Telangana state. The higher diversity and lower dominance index value (p < 0.01) reported in PAs compared to Eco Sensitive Zones and unprotected areas during the non-monsoon season indicate the role of intact physical habitat in providing refuges to the fish species in monsoon dependent tropical rivers. The optimal water quality revealed no significant difference (p > 0.0001) between protected and unprotected river reaches, and healthy biotic integrity assessed on the basis of fish community structure was attributed to the contiguous flow and less anthropogenic disturbance. This study supports that it can be considered as a representative zone for the conservation and protection of indigenous and endemic fish species of the Godavari Basin. The results concluded that the scope of the terrestrial PA network in India could be potentially extended to their bordering aquatic ecosystems, especially rivers to maintain pristine habitat conditions and conserve the fish genetic resources to ensure the flow of ecosystem services.     

Integrating spatially explicit habitat projections into extinction risk assessments: a reassessment of Amazonian avifauna incorporating projected deforestation

Aim We aimed to complete the first systematic assessment of extinction risk based on projected population declines derived from spatially explicit habitat projections for any taxonomic group at a regional scale, to use the outputs to ascertain the efficacy of an existing protected area network in covering species of conservation concern, and identify gaps therein. Location This study focused on Amazonia; an area of exceptional biodiversity, currently experiencing the highest absolute rate of forest loss globally but where the proportion of species assessed as ‘threatened’ on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List in the region is below global averages. Methods For all forest‐dependent Amazonian bird species (814), we revised extinction risk estimates by combining data from a spatially explicit deforestation model with generation length estimates. By overlaying distribution maps for these revised threatened species, we identified crisis areas (areas of projected deforestation supporting the highest numbers of threatened species), refugia (areas projected to retain forest supporting the highest numbers of threatened species) and areas of high irreplaceability: short‐ and long‐term priorities for new protected areas (PAs). Results The number of species qualifying as threatened rose substantially from 24 (3%) to 64–92 (8–11%). Areas of particular concern are the crisis and highly irreplaceable areas within the ‘arc of deforestation’ in the southern Brazilian Amazon states of Rondônia, Mato Grosso and Pará. Main conclusions Through a novel application of the IUCN Red List criteria, we present a spatially accurate rendering of the extinction risks of Amazonian birds. Important areas in the Amazon are not secure. We identify priorities for expansion of the PAs network and key locations where protection should be enforced. We recommend a collaborative approach employing our methods to repeat this process for other taxonomic groups.     

The Effects of Climate Change on the Long-Term Conservation of Fagus grandifolia var. mexicana, an Important Species of the Cloud Forest in Eastern Mexico

We examined the effects of climate change on the future conservation and distribution patterns of the cloud forests in eastern Mexico, by using as a species model to Fagus grandifolia Ehr. var. mexicana (Martínez) Little which is mainly located in this vegetation type, at the Sierra Madre Oriental. This species was selected because it is restricted to the cloud forest, where it is a dominant element and has not been considered for protection in any national or international law. It is probably threatened due to the fact that it plays an important social role as a source of food and furnishing. We used a floristic database and a bioclimatic modeling approach including 19 climatic parameters, in order to obtain the current potential distribution pattern of the species. Currently, its potential distribution pattern shows that it is distributed in six different Mexican Priority Regions for Conservation. In addition, we also selected a future climate scenario, on the basis of some climate changes predictions already proposed. The scenario proposed is characterized by +2 °C and −20% rainfall in the region. Under this predicted climatic condition, we found a drastic distribution contraction of the species, in which most of the remaining populations will inhabit restricted areas located outside the boundaries of the surrounding reserves. Consequently, our results highlight the importance of considering the effects of possible future climate changes on the selection of conservation areas and the urgency to conserve some remaining patches of existing cloud forests. Accordingly, we believe that our bioclimatic modeling approach represents a useful tool to undertake decisions concerning the definition of protected areas, once the current potential distribution pattern of some selected species is known.