Velocity of climate change algorithms for guiding conservation and management

The velocity of climate change is an elegant analytical concept that can be used to evaluate the exposure of organisms to climate change. In essence, one divides the rate of climate change by the rate of spatial climate variability to obtain a speed at which species must migrate over the surface of the earth to maintain constant climate conditions. However, to apply the algorithm for conservation and management purposes, additional information is needed to improve realism at local scales. For example, destination information is needed to ensure that vectors describing speed and direction of required migration do not point toward a climatic cul‐de‐sac by pointing beyond mountain tops. Here, we present an analytical approach that conforms to standard velocity algorithms if climate equivalents are nearby. Otherwise, the algorithm extends the search for climate refugia, which can be expanded to search for multivariate climate matches. With source and destination information available, forward and backward velocities can be calculated allowing useful inferences about conservation of species (present‐to‐future velocities) and management of species populations (future‐to‐present velocities).     

Assisted migration within species range ignores biotic interactions and lacks evidence

In the context of climate change, many plant species may have problems adapting or dispersing rapidly enough to keep pace with changing environmental conditions. Given these potential problems, some experts argue against using local plant ecotypes for ecosystem restoration. Instead, they propose to use foreign ecotypes that are adapted to the predicted climate in an approach called assisted migration within species range or predictive provenancing. I argue that such actions may cause a mismatch in biotic interactions and have negative effects on other organisms. As such, assisted migration should only be considered in cases when the local ecotypes would fail to ensure ecosystem services. In fact, there is little experimental evidence on the assisted migration approach so far, and what little there is does not seem to support its use. Even in altered climates, local ecotypes mostly performed equally well or better than foreign ones selected for their adaptations to these climates. The reason is that even if adaptation to climate plays a role, this factor may be overridden by other drivers of local adaptation, such as soil or biotic interactions. Despite assisted migration being a popular concept that is repeatedly commended in scientific literature and propagated among practitioners, it should not be considered a universal tool to improve restoration outcomes during climate change. Given the lack of hard experimental data, I call for large‐scale multispecies experimental studies that will provide the necessary evidence to derive general guidelines and recommendations for management of ecosystems during climate change.     

Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies under global change for a rare,fire‐dependent plant

As a clear consensus is emerging that habitat for many species will dramatically reduce or shift with climate change, attention is turning to adaptation strategies to address these impacts. Assisted colonization is one such strategy that has been predominantly discussed in terms of the costs of introducing potential competitors into new communities and the benefits of reducing extinction risk. However, the success or failure of assisted colonization will depend on a range of population‐level factors that have not yet been quantitatively evaluated – the quality of the recipient habitat, the number and life stages of translocated individuals, the establishment of translocated individuals in their new habitat and whether the recipient habitat is subject to ongoing threats all will play an important role in population persistence. In this article, we do not take one side or the other in the debate over whether assisted colonization is worthwhile. Rather, we focus on the likelihood that assisted colonization will promote population persistence in the face of climate‐induced distribution changes and altered fire regimes for a rare endemic species. We link a population model with species distribution models to investigate expected changes in populations with climate change, the impact of altered fire regimes on population persistence and how much assisted colonization is necessary to minimize risk of decline in populations of Tecate cypress, a rare endemic tree in the California Floristic Province, a biodiversity hotspot. We show that assisted colonization may be a risk‐minimizing adaptation strategy when there are large source populations that are declining dramatically due to habitat contractions, multiple nearby sites predicted to contain suitable habitat, minimal natural dispersal, high rates of establishment of translocated populations and the absence of nonclimatic threats such as altered disturbance regimes. However, when serious ongoing threats exist, assisted colonization is ineffective.     

How ready are we to move species threatened from climate change? Insights into the assisted colonization debate from Australia

Assisted colonization, the intentional movement of species beyond their native range, has been proposed as a climate change adaptation tool for biodiversity conservation. The risks and benefits of its implementation are still being debated but already the climate is changing, species are moving and the pressure on at‐risk species must therefore be increasing. However, instances where moving species beyond their natural range purely for conservation purposes due to climate change are few, and the opportunity for science to inform practice is limited. Here we survey active participants in flora translocations and/or flora conservation in Australia in order to investigate the gap between theoretical and conceptual ideas about assisted colonization and to gauge preparedness for its implementation. We found that actions that mitigate proximal threats are preferred over those that move species beyond their current range. A lack of knowledge of species biology and ecology is an impediment to the acceptance of assisted colonization. In addition, prohibitive costs and the potential increased risk of the spread of diseases, pests and/or pathogens are viewed as more important obstacles of successful assisted colonization than potential for invasion at the recipient site. Full approval from all stakeholders at the source and recipient sites was found to be the most important factor for the successful assisted colonization of flora.     

The active spread of adaptive variation for reef resilience

The speed at which species adapt depends partly on the rates of beneficial adaptation generation and how quickly they spread within and among populations. Natural rates of adaptation of corals may not be able to keep pace with climate warming. Several interventions have been proposed to fast‐track thermal adaptation, including the intentional translocation of warm‐adapted adults or their offspring (assisted gene flow, AGF) and the ex situ crossing of warm‐adapted corals with conspecifics from cooler reefs (hybridization or selective breeding) and field deployment of those offspring. The introgression of temperature tolerance loci into the genomic background of cooler‐environment corals aims to facilitate adaptation to warming while maintaining fitness under local conditions. Here we use research on selective sweeps and connectivity to understand the spread of adaptive variants as it applies to AGF on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), focusing on the genus Acropora. Using larval biophysical dispersal modeling, we estimate levels of natural connectivity in warm‐adapted northern corals. We then model the spread of adaptive variants from single and multiple reefs and assess if the natural and assisted spread of adaptive variants will occur fast enough to prepare receiving central and southern populations given current rates of warming. We also estimate fixation rates and spatial extent of fixation under multiple release scenarios to inform intervention design. Our results suggest that thermal tolerance is unlikely to spread beyond northern reefs to the central and southern GBR without intervention, and if it does, 30+ generations are needed for adaptive gene variants to reach fixation even under multiple release scenarios. We argue that if translocation, breeding, and reseeding risks are managed, AGF using multiple release reefs can be beneficial for the restoration of coral populations. These interventions should be considered in addition to conventional management and accompanied by strong mitigation of CO₂ emissions.     

Estimating the potential for coral adaptation to global warming across the Indo‐West Pacific

The potential of reef‐building corals to adapt to increasing sea‐surface temperatures is often debated but has rarely been comprehensively modeled on a region‐wide scale. We used individual‐based simulations to model adaptation to warming in a coral metapopulation comprising 680 reefs and representing the whole of the Central Indo‐West Pacific. Encouragingly, some reefs—most notably Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, New Caledonia and the southern half of the Great Barrier Reef—exhibited high capacity for adaptation and, in our model, maintained coral cover even under a rapid “business‐as‐usual” warming scenario throughout the modeled period (200 years). Higher resilience of these reefs was observed under all tested parameter settings except the models prohibiting selection and/or migration during warming. At the same time, the majority of reefs in the region tended to collapse within the first 100 years of warming. The adaptive potential (odds of maintaining high coral cover) of a given reef could be predicted based on two metrics: the reef's present‐day temperature, and the proportion of recruits immigrating from warmer locations. The latter metric explains the most variation in adaptive potential, and significantly correlates with actual coral cover changes observed throughout the region between the 1970s and the early 2000s. These findings will help prioritize coral conservation efforts and plan assisted gene flow interventions to boost the adaptive potential of specific coral populations.     

Restoring for the present or restoring for the future: enhanced performance of two sympatric oaks (Quercus ilex and Quercus pyrenaica) above the current forest limit

Reforestation is common to restore degraded ecosystems, but tree‐species choice often neglects ongoing environmental changes. We evaluated the performance of planted seedlings of two oak species at two sites in a Mediterranean mountain (Sierra Nevada, SE Spain): one located within the current altitudinal forest range (1,600–1,760 m), and one above the upper forest limit (1,970–2,120 m). The forest service planted 1,350 seedlings of the deciduous Pyrenean oak and the evergreen Holm oak in a postfire successional shrubland. After 2 years, seedlings were monitored for survival, and a subset of 110 Pyrenean oaks and 185 Holm oaks were harvested for analyses of biomass and foliar nutrient status, δ¹³C, and δ¹⁸O. Both species showed the highest survival and leaf N status above the upper forest limit, and survival increased with altitude within each plot. The deciduous oak benefited most from planting at higher altitude, and it also had greater biomass at the higher site. Correlations between foliar N, δ¹⁸O, and δ¹³C across elevations indicate tighter stomatal control of water loss and greater water‐use efficiency with increasing plant N status at higher altitude, which may represent a so‐far overlooked positive feedback mechanism that could foster uphill range shifts in water‐limited mountain regions. Given ongoing trends and future projections of increasing temperature and aridity throughout the Mediterranean region, tree‐species selection for forest restoration should target forecasted climatic conditions rather than those prevailing in the past. This study highlights that ecosystem restoration provides an opportunity to assist species range shifts under rapidly changing climate.     

One option,two countries,several strategies: subjacent mechanisms of assisted migration implementation in Canada and France

Climate change obliges societies to develop adaptive strategies in order to maintain sustainable management of resources and landscapes. However, the development and implementation of these strategies require dialogue between researchers and policy‐makers about what they understand for adaptation. This dialogue can be hindered by language differences, the hidden agendas, and conflicting concerns of those involved. In this research study, we explored the mechanisms that underlie the implementation process of assisted migration (AM), an adaptation strategy that aims to limit the impact of climate change. We conducted a comparative analysis of 80 semistructured interviews with actors in the forestry sectors in Canada and France. In Canada, our results show a division between the provinces strategies, causing a debate about AM because researchers are wary of the geoengineering and economic arguments that frame AM in areas where the effects of climate change remain unclear. In contrast, we found that the observation of climate impacts is a strong trigger for the application of AM despite an awareness of its associated risks. In France, we explained the absence of AM implementation by a lack of information flow between research and foresters regarding the concept of AM, a cultural attachment of French foresters to their forest landscapes and that climate change effects are not clear yet. Clarity on what implies a true ecological engineering approach in ecological restoration can help maintaining adaptive actions like AM within the general scope of ecosystem management and minimize simplistic applications of adaptation strategies because of climate change.     

Whose backyard? Some precautions in choosing recipient sites for assisted colonisation of Australian plants and animals

In cases where assisted colonisation is the appropriate conservation tool, the selection of recipient sites is a major challenge. Here, we propose a framework for site selection that can be applied to the Australian biota, where planning for assisted colonisation is in its infancy. Characteristics that will be important drivers in the decision‐making process include the size of a recipient site, the potential to augment corridors and respond to niche gaps, the maximisation of climatic buffering, bioregional similarity, tenure security, and the minimisation of opportunities for hybridisation and invasiveness. Sites we suggest be precluded from assisted colonisation include sites of high species endemism, IUCN category 1 reference reserves and fully‐functioning threatened ecological communities.     

Shifting paradigms in restoration of the world's coral reefs

Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures, and perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. Management of coral reefs through maintenance (e.g., marine‐protected areas, catchment management to improve water quality), restoration, as well as global and national governmental agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (e.g., the 2015 Paris Agreement) is critical for the persistence of coral reefs. Despite these initiatives, the health and abundance of corals reefs are rapidly declining and other solutions will soon be required. We have recently discussed options for using assisted evolution (i.e., selective breeding, assisted gene flow, conditioning or epigenetic programming, and the manipulation of the coral microbiome) as a means to enhance environmental stress tolerance of corals and the success of coral reef restoration efforts. The 2014–2016 global coral bleaching event has sharpened the focus on such interventionist approaches. We highlight the necessity for consideration of alternative (e.g., hybrid) ecosystem states, discuss traits of resilient corals and coral reef ecosystems, and propose a decision tree for incorporating assisted evolution into restoration initiatives to enhance climate resilience of coral reefs.     

Plants adapted to warmer climate do not outperform regional plants during a natural heat wave

With ongoing climate change, many plant species may not be able to adapt rapidly enough, and some conservation experts are therefore considering to translocate warm‐adapted ecotypes to mitigate effects of climate warming. Although this strategy, called assisted migration, is intuitively plausible, most of the support comes from models, whereas experimental evidence is so far scarce. Here we present data on multiple ecotypes of six grassland species, which we grew in four common gardens in Germany during a natural heat wave, with temperatures 1.4–2.0°C higher than the long‐term means. In each garden we compared the performance of regional ecotypes with plants from a locality with long‐term summer temperatures similar to what the plants experienced during the summer heat wave. We found no difference in performance between regional and warm‐adapted plants in four of the six species. In two species, regional ecotypes even outperformed warm‐adapted plants, despite elevated temperatures, which suggests that translocating warm‐adapted ecotypes may not only lack the desired effect of increased performance but may even have negative consequences. Even if adaptation to climate plays a role, other factors involved in local adaptation, such as biotic interactions, may override it. Based on our results, we cannot advocate assisted migration as a universal tool to enhance the performance of local plant populations and communities during climate change.     

MORAL FICTION OR MORAL FACT? THE DISTINCTION BETWEEN DOING AND ALLOWING IN MEDICAL ETHICS

Opponents of physician‐assisted suicide (PAS) maintain that physician withdrawal‐of‐life‐sustaining‐treatment cannot be morally equated to voluntary active euthanasia. PAS opponents generally distinguish these two kinds of act by positing a possible moral distinction between killing and allowing‐to‐die, ceteris paribus. While that distinction continues to be widely accepted in the public discourse, it has been more controversial among philosophers. Some ethicist PAS advocates are so certain that the distinction is invalid that they describe PAS opponents who hold to the distinction as in the grip of ‘moral fictions’. The author contends that such a diagnosis is too hasty. The possibility of a moral distinction between active euthanasia and allowing‐to‐die has not been closed off by the argumentative strategies employed by these PAS advocates, including the contrasting cases strategy and the assimilation of doing and allowing to a common sense notion of causation. The philosophical debate over the doing/allowing distinction remains inconclusive, but physicians and others who rely upon that distinction in thinking about the ethics of end‐of‐life care need not give up on it in response to these arguments.     

Physician assisted suicide: a new look at the arguments

In this paper, I examine the argumens agains physician assisted suicide (PAS). Many of these arguments are consequentialist. Consequentialist arguments rely on empirical claims about the future and thus their strength depends on how likely it is that the predictions will be realized. I discuss these predictions against the backdrop of Oregon's Death with Dignity Act and the practice of PAS in the Netherlands. I then turn to a specific consequentialist argument against PAS - Susan M. Wolfs feminist critique of the practice. Finally, I examine the two most prominent deontological arguments against PAS. Ultimately, I conclude that no anti-PAS argument has merit. Although I do not provide positive arguments for PAS, if none of the arguments against it are strong, we have no reason not to legalize it.     

Public reasoning about voluntary assisted dying: An analysis of submissions to the Queensland Parliament,Australia

The use of voluntary assisted dying as an end‐of‐life option has stimulated concerns and debates over the past decades. Although public attitudes towards voluntary assisted dying (including euthanasia and physician‐assisted suicide) are well researched, there has been relatively little study of the different reasons, normative reasoning and rhetorical strategies that people invoke in supporting or contesting voluntary assisted dying in everyday life. Using a mix of computational textual mining techniques, keyword study and qualitative thematic coding to analyse public submissions to a parliamentary inquiry into voluntary assisted dying in Australia, this study critically examines the different reasons, normative reasoning and rhetorical strategies that people invoke in supporting or contesting voluntary assisted dying in everyday life. The analysis identified complex and potentially contradictory ethical principles being invoked on both sides of the debate. These findings deepen our understanding of the moral basis of public reasoning about end‐of‐life matters and will help to inform future discussions on policy and law reform. The findings underscore the importance of sound normative reasoning and the use of caution when interpreting opinion polls to inform policy.     

Genetic variation in productivity of foundation riparian species at the edge of their distribution: implications for restoration and assisted migration in a warming climate

We examined the hypothesis that genotypic variation among populations of commonly co‐occurring phreatophytic trees (Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii) and the shrub (Salix exigua) regulates aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) at a hot site at the edge of the species’ distribution. We used a provenance trial in which replicated genotypes from populations varying in mean annual temperature were transplanted to a common garden adjacent to the Lower Colorado River in southeastern California. The garden environment represented an extreme maximum temperature for the study species. Four major findings emerged: (1) Genotypic variation in ANPP was significant for all species with broad‐sense heritability (H²) across populations of 0.11, 0.13, and 0.10 for P. fremontii, S. gooddingii, and S. exigua, respectively, and within‐population H² ranging from 0.00 to 0.25, 0.00 to 0.44, and 0.02 to 0.21, respectively. (2) Population ANPP decreased linearly as mean annual maximum temperature (MAMT) transfer distance increased for both P. fremontii (r² = 0.64) and S. gooddingii (r² = 0.37), whereas it did not change for S. exigua; (3) Populations with similar MAMT to that of the common garden were 1.5 and 1.2 times more productive than populations with 5.0 °C MAMT transfer distances for P. fremontii and S. gooddingii, respectively; and (4) Variation in regression slopes among species for the relationship between ANPP and MAMT indicate species‐specific responses to temperature. As these plant species characterize a threatened habitat type and support a diverse community that includes endangered species, ecosystem restoration programs should consider using both local genotypes and productive genotypes from warmer environments to maximize productivity of riparian ecosystems in the face of global climate change.     

Rapid global change: implications for defining natives and aliens

The ability to ascribe native or alien status to species in a rapidly changing world underpins diverse research fields that overlap with global change and biological invasions via biodiversity. Current definitions generally link alien status to anthropogenic dispersal events, but this can create conflicts for active management and global change adaptation strategies, such as managed relocation and restoration ecology. Here we propose a unifying approach that allows for the incorporation of rapid global change into biological invasion terminology. We introduce the concept of a projected dispersal envelope (PDE) to define the region where a species is or could be native, irrespective of human involvement. The PDE integrates biogeography and niche theory with existing invasion terminology to place a spatial and temporal context on species movements. We draw on a diverse suite of topical organism movements to illustrate these concepts. Our restructured definitions allow for native species to move into or with rapidly shifting climatic regions, as well as identifying the inappropriate introduction of alien species to new areas. Moreover, our definitions framework forms a timely and essential component of adaptation policies and responses for invasive species management and the enhancement of biodiversity in a rapidly changing world.     

Marker assisted selection with optimised contributions of the candidates to selection

The benefits of marker assisted selection (MAS) are evaluated under realistic assumptions in schemes where the genetic contributions of the candidates to selection are optimised for maximising the rate of genetic progress while restricting the accumulation of inbreeding. MAS schemes were compared with schemes where selection is directly on the QTL (GAS or gene assisted selection) and with schemes where genotype information is not considered (PHE or phenotypic selection). A methodology for including prior information on the QTL effect in the genetic evaluation is presented and the benefits from MAS were investigated when prior information was used. The optimisation of the genetic contributions has a great impact on genetic response but the use of markers leads to only moderate extra short-term gains. Optimised PHE did as well as standard truncation GAS (i.e. with fixed contributions) in the short-term and better in the long-term. The maximum accumulated benefit from MAS over PHE was, at the most, half of the maximum benefit achieved from GAS, even with very low recombination rates between the markers and the QTL. However, the use of prior information about the QTL effects can substantially increase genetic gain, and, when the accuracy of the priors is high enough, the responses from MAS are practically as high as those obtained with direct selection on the QTL.     

On the Moral Acceptability of Physician‐Assisted Dying for Non‐Autonomous Psychiatric Patients

Several authors have recently suggested that the suffering caused by mental illness could provide moral grounds for physician‐assisted dying. Yet they typically require that psychiatric‐assisted dying could come to question in the cases of autonomous, or rational, psychiatric patients only. Given that also non‐autonomous psychiatric patients can sometimes suffer unbearably, this limitation appears questionable. In this article, I maintain that restricting psychiatric‐assisted dying to autonomous, or rational, psychiatric patients would not be compatible with endorsing certain end‐of‐life practices commonly accepted in current medical ethics and law, practices often referred to as ‘passive euthanasia’.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.