Comparative multilocus phylogeography of two Palaearctic spruce bark beetles: influence of contrasting ecological strategies on genetic variation

While phylogeographic patterns of organisms are often interpreted through past environmental disturbances, mediated by climate changes, and geographic barriers, they may also be strongly influenced by species‐specific traits. To investigate the impact of such traits, we focused on two Eurasian spruce bark beetles that share a similar geographic distribution, but differ in their ecology and reproduction. Ips typographus is an aggressive tree‐killing species characterized by strong dispersal, whereas Dendroctonus micans is a discrete inbreeding species (sib mating is the rule), parasite of living trees and a poor disperser. We compared genetic variation between the two species over both beetles’ entire range in Eurasia with five independent gene fragments, to evaluate whether their intrinsic differences could have an influence over their phylogeographic patterns. We highlighted widely divergent patterns of genetic variation for the two species and argue that the difference is indeed largely compatible with their contrasting dispersal strategies and modes of reproduction. In addition, genetic structure in I. typographus divides European populations in a northern and a southern group, as was previously observed for its host plant, and suggests past allopatric divergence. A long divergence time was estimated between East Asian and other populations of both species, indicating their long‐standing presence in Eurasia, prior to the last glacial maximum. Finally, the strong population structure observed in D. micans for the mitochondrial locus provides insights into the recent colonization history of this species, from its native European range to regions where it was recently introduced.     

It is about time: genetic variation in the timing of leaf‐litter inputs influences aquatic ecosystems

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The influence of sea currents, past disruption of gene flow and species biology on the phylogeographical structure of coastal flowering plants

Aim We investigate the geographical genetic structure of two coastal plant species, Cakile maritima Scop. (Brassicaceae) and Eryngium maritimum L. (Apiaceae), through three sea straits and along one continuous stretch of coast using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). The two species have a similar ecology in that they grow in sandy habitats, but differ in life‐form (annual vs. perennial) and dispersability of seeds by sea water as inferred from floating experiments. The sea straits differ in their geological history and their modern current systems. The primary goal of our study was to test the hypothesis that sea straits have an influence on the geographical patterns of genetic variation at the population level. Location The areas around the Strait of Gibraltar, the Dardanelles, the Bosporus and the Atlantic coast of western France. Methods For both species we investigated AFLP variation in several populations from each area. Bayesian clustering and diversity and differentiation measures were used to analyse the genetic data. Results In most areas the spatial genetic structure was similar between the two species. They share the presence of distinct genetic gaps along the coast through the Strait of Gibraltar and the Bosporus, and these genetic gaps coincide with the straits. Both species show genetic continuity along the coast of western France. A distinct genetic gap was found through the Dardanelles for C. maritima but not for E. maritimum. Main conclusions The study shows that sea straits have an influence on the geographical patterns of genetic variation. Sea currents are inferred to cause the genetic gap through the Strait of Gibraltar. In the Bosporus and, for C. maritima, through the Dardanelles, the genetic gaps found are explained by the past closure of these two straits as well as by present‐day factors. Simulations indicate that the lower differentiation of C. maritima through the Dardanelles than through the Bosporus cannot be explained by the difference in geological history of these two straits. The difference in seed dispersability between the two species is argued to be responsible for the observation that differentiation among genetic clusters is higher in E. maritimum than in C. maritima where a direct comparison is possible.     

Comparison of historical bottleneck effects and genetic consequences of re‐introduction in a critically endangered island passerine

Re‐introduction is an important tool for recovering endangered species; however, the magnitude of genetic consequences for re‐introduced populations remains largely unknown, in particular the relative impacts of historical population bottlenecks compared to those induced by conservation management. We characterize 14 microsatellite loci developed for the Seychelles paradise flycatcher and use them to quantify temporal and spatial measures of genetic variation across a 134‐year time frame encompassing a historical bottleneck that reduced the species to ~28 individuals in the 1960s, through the initial stages of recovery and across a second contemporary conservation‐introduction‐induced bottleneck. We then evaluate the relative impacts of the two bottlenecks, and finally apply our findings to inform broader re‐introduction strategy. We find a temporal trend of significant decrease in standard measures of genetic diversity across the historical bottleneck, but only a nonsignificant downward trend in number of alleles across the contemporary bottleneck. However, accounting for the different timescales of the two bottlenecks (~40 historical generations versus <1 contemporary generation), the loss of genetic diversity per generation is greater across the contemporary bottleneck. Historically, the flycatcher population was genetically structured; however, extinction on four of five islands has resulted in a homogeneous contemporary population. We conclude that severe historical bottlenecks can leave a large footprint in terms of sheer quantity of genetic diversity lost. However, severely depleted genetic diversity does not render a species immune to further genetic erosion upon re‐introduction. In some cases, the loss of genetic diversity per generation can, initially at least, be greater across re‐introduction‐induced bottlenecks.     

Long‐term balancing selection on chromosomal variants associated with crypsis in a stick insect

How polymorphisms are maintained within populations over long periods of time remains debated, because genetic drift and various forms of selection are expected to reduce variation. Here, we study the genetic architecture and maintenance of phenotypic morphs that confer crypsis in Timema cristinae stick insects, combining phenotypic information and genotyping‐by‐sequencing data from 1,360 samples across 21 populations. We find two highly divergent chromosomal variants that span megabases of sequence and are associated with colour polymorphism. We show that these variants exhibit strongly reduced effective recombination, are geographically widespread and probably diverged millions of generations ago. We detect heterokaryotype excess and signs of balancing selection acting on these variants through the species’ history. A third chromosomal variant in the same genomic region likely evolved more recently from one of the two colour variants and is associated with dorsal pattern polymorphism. Our results suggest that large‐scale genetic variation associated with crypsis has been maintained for long periods of time by potentially complex processes of balancing selection.     

Natural quantitative genetic variance in plant growth differs in response to ecologically relevant temperature heterogeneity

Adaptation to large‐scale spatial heterogeneity in the environment accounts for a major proportion of genetic diversity within species. Theory predicts the erosion of adaptive genetic variation on a within‐population level, but considerable genetic diversity is often found locally. Genetic diversity could be expected to be maintained within populations in temporally or spatially variable conditions if genotypic rank orders vary across contrasting microenvironmental settings. Taking advantage of fine‐resolution environmental data, we tested the hypothesis that temperature heterogeneity among years could be one factor maintaining quantitative genetic diversity within a natural and genetically diverse plant population. We sampled maternal families of Boechera stricta, an Arabidopsis thaliana relative, at one location in the central Rocky Mountains and grew them in three treatments that, based on records from an adjacent weather station, simulated hourly temperature changes at the native site during three summers with differing mean temperatures. Treatment had a significant effect on all traits, with 2–3‐fold increase in above‐ and belowground biomass and the highest allocation to roots observed in the treatment simulating the warmest summer on record at the site. Treatment affected bivariate associations between traits, with the weakest correlation between above‐ and belowground biomass in the warmest treatment. The magnitude of quantitative genetic variation for all traits differed across treatments: Genetic variance of biomass was 0 in the warmest treatment, while highly significant diversity was found in average conditions, resulting in broad‐sense heritability of 0.31. Significant genotype × environment interactions across all treatments were found only in root‐to‐shoot ratio. Therefore, temperature variation among summers appears unlikely to account for the observed levels of local genetic variation in size in this perennial species, but may influence family rank order in growth allocation. Our results indicate that natural environmental fluctuations can have a large impact on the magnitude of within‐population quantitative genetic variance.     

Cis- and trans-acting genetic factors contribute to heterogeneity in the rate of crossing over between the Drosophila simulans clade species

In the genus Drosophila, variation in recombination rates has been found within and between species. Genetic variation for both cis‐ and trans‐acting factors has been shown to affect recombination rates within species, but little is known about the genetic factors that affect differences between species. Here, we estimate rates of crossing over for seven segments that tile across the euchromatic length of the X chromosome in the genetic backgrounds of three closely related Drosophila species. We first generated a set of Drosophila mauritiana lines each having two semidominant visible markers on the X chromosome and then introgressed these doubly marked segments into the genetic backgrounds of its sibling species, Drosophila simulans and Drosophila sechellia. Using these 21 lines (seven segments, three genetic backgrounds), we tested whether recombination rates within the doubly marked intervals differed depending on genetic background. We find significant heterogeneity among intervals and among species backgrounds. Our results suggest that a combination of both cis‐ and trans‐acting factors have evolved among the three D. simulans clade species and interact to affect recombination rate.     

Subspecies delineation amid phenotypic,geographic and genetic discordance in a songbird

Understanding the processes that drive divergence within and among species is a long‐standing goal in evolutionary biology. Traditional approaches to assessing differentiation rely on phenotypes to identify intra‐ and interspecific variation, but many species express subtle morphological gradients in which boundaries among forms are unclear. This intraspecific variation may be driven by differential adaptation to local conditions and may thereby reflect the evolutionary potential within a species. Here, we combine genetic and morphological data to evaluate intraspecific variation within the Nelson's (Ammodramus nelsoni) and salt marsh (Ammodramus caudacutus) sparrow complex, a group with populations that span considerable geographic distributions and a habitat gradient. We evaluated genetic structure among and within five putative subspecies of A. nelsoni and A. caudacutus using a reduced‐representation sequencing approach to generate a panel of 1929 SNPs among 69 individuals. Although we detected morphological differences among some groups, individuals sorted along a continuous phenotypic gradient. In contrast, the genetic data identified three distinct clusters corresponding to populations that inhabit coastal salt marsh, interior freshwater marsh and coastal brackish–water marsh habitats. These patterns support the current species‐level recognition but do not match the subspecies‐level taxonomy within each species—a finding which may have important conservation implications. We identified loci exhibiting patterns of elevated divergence among and within these species, indicating a role for local selective pressures in driving patterns of differentiation across the complex. We conclude that this evidence for adaptive variation among subspecies warrants the consideration of evolutionary potential and genetic novelty when identifying conservation units for this group.     

Population genetic structure of three freshwater mussel (Unionidae) species within a small stream system: significant variation at local spatial scales

1. Unionid mussels are highly threatened, but little is known about genetic structure in populations of these organisms. We used allozyme electrophoresis to examine partitioning of genetic variation in three locally abundant and widely distributed species of mussels from a catchment in Ohio. 2. Within‐population variation was similar to that previously reported for freshwater mussels, but genotype frequencies exhibited heterozygote deficiencies in many instances. All three species exhibited significant among‐population variation. Evidence of isolation‐by‐distance was found in Elliptio dilatata and Ptychobranchus fasciolaris, while Lampsilis siliquoidea showed no geographical pattern of among‐population variation. 3. Our results suggest that the isolating effects of genetic drift were greater in L. siliquoidea than in the other species. Differentiation of populations occurred at a much smaller spatial scale than has previously been found in freshwater mussels. Differences among species may reflect differences in the dispersal abilities of fishes that serve as hosts for the glochidia larvae of mussels. 4. Based on our results, we hypothesise that species of mussels that are common to large rivers exhibit relatively large amounts of within‐population genetic variation and little differentiation over large geographical distances. Conversely, species typical of small streams show lower within‐population genetic variation and populations will be more isolated. If this hypothesis can be supported, it may prove useful in the design of conservation strategies that maintain the genetic structure of target species.     

Host‐associated genetic differentiation in a seed parasitic weevil Rhinusa antirrhini (Coleptera: Curculionidae) revealed by mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data

Plant feeding insects and the plants they feed upon represent an ecological association that is thought to be a key factor for the diversification of many plant feeding insects, through differential adaptation to different plant selective pressures. While a number of studies have investigated diversification of plant feeding insects above the species level, relatively less attention has been given to patterns of diversification within species, particularly those that also require plants for oviposition and subsequent larval development. In the case of plant feeding insects that also require plant tissues for the completion of their reproductive cycle through larval development, the divergent selective pressure not only acts on adults, but on the full life history of the insect. Here we focus attention on Rhinusa antirrhini (Curculionidae), a species of weevil broadly distributed across Europe that both feeds on, and oviposits and develops within, species of the plant genus Linaria (Plantaginaceae). Using a combination of mtDNA (COII) and nuclear DNA (EF1‐α) sequencing and copulation experiments we assess evidence for host associated genetic differentiation within R. antirrhini. We find substantial genetic variation within this species that is best explained by ecological specialisation on different host plant taxa. This genetic differentiation is most pronounced in the mtDNA marker, with patterns of genetic variation at the nuclear marker suggesting incomplete lineage sorting and/or gene flow between different host plant forms of R. antirrhini, whose origin is estimated to date to the mid‐Pliocene (3.77 Mya; 2.91–4.80 Mya).     

Temporal genetic structuring of a specialist parasitoid,Lysiphlebus hirticornis Mackauer (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) attacking a specialist aphid on tansy

In insect species characterized by inbreeding, limited dispersal, and a metapopulation structure, high genetic differentiation and reduced genetic diversity within local populations are expected. Using the model system Lysiphlebus hirticornis Mackauer, a specialist parasitoid of the tansy aphid, Metopeurum fuscoviride Stroyan (Hemiptera: Aphididae), we examined within‐site temporal population dynamics and genetics, including molecular variation at the tansy plant level. Aphid‐parasitoid dynamics were surveyed and parasitoids sampled from 72 tansy plants at 11 sites in and around Jena, Germany, over one growing season. Thereafter, parasitoid samples were genotyped at 11 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Colonization, extinction, and recolonization events occurred during the season. Allele numbers and identities were highly variable over time. When samples from all sites were pooled, allele number over all loci showed a decreasing trend with time. At the level of sites, temporal changes in genetic diversity were more variable. Analysis of molecular variance revealed that samples at the plant level explained the highest variance compared to at site level. We conclude that the genetic structuring of this insect is very fine grained (i.e. at the tansy plant level) and the temporal genetic diversity is explained by a combination of extinction and recolonization events, as well as inbreeding. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 102 , 737–749.     

The legacy of ice ages in mountain species: post‐glacial colonization of mountain tops rather than current range fragmentation determines mitochondrial genetic diversity in an endemic Pyrenean rock lizard

Aim The genetic impact of Quaternary climatic fluctuations on mountain endemic species has rarely been investigated. The Pyrenean rock lizard (Iberolacerta bonnali) is restricted to alpine habitats in the Pyrenees where it exhibits a highly fragmented distribution between massifs and between habitats within massifs. Using mitochondrial DNA markers, we set out: (1) to test whether several evolutionary units exist within the species; (2) to understand how the species persisted through the Last Glacial Maximum and whether the current range fragmentation originates from distribution shifts after the Last Glacial Maximum or from more ancient events; and (3) to investigate whether current mitochondrial diversity reflects past population history or current habitat fragmentation. Location The Pyrenees in south‐western France and northern Spain. Methods We used variation in the hypervariable left domain of the mitochondrial control region of 146 lizards collected in 15 localities, supplemented by cytochrome b sequences downloaded from GenBank to cover most of the species’ distribution range. Measures of population genetic diversity were contrasted with population isolation inferred from topography. Classical (F‐statistics) and coalescence‐based methods were used to assess the level of gene flow and estimate divergence time between populations. We used coalescence‐based simulations to test the congruence of our genetic data with a scenario of simultaneous divergence of current populations. Results Coalescence‐based analyses suggested that these peripheral populations diverged simultaneously at the end of the last glacial episode when their habitats became isolated on mountain summits. High mitochondrial diversity was found in peripheral, isolated populations, while the populations from the core of the species’ range were genetically impoverished. Where mitochondrial diversity has been retained, populations within the same massif exhibited high levels of genetic differentiation. Main conclusions As suggested for many other mountain species, the Pyrenean rock lizard survived glacial maxima through short‐distance range shifts instead of migration or contraction in distant southern refugia. Most of the main Pyrenean range has apparently been re‐colonized from a single or a few source populations, resulting in a loss of genetic diversity in re‐colonized areas. As a result, current levels of intra‐population mitochondrial diversity are better explained by post‐glacial population history than by current habitat fragmentation. Genetic population differentiation within massifs implies severe reduction in female‐mediated gene flow between patches of habitats.     

Spatio‐temporal modelling of Glossina palpalis gambiensis and Glossina tachinoides apparent densities in fragmented ecosystems of Burkina Faso

Tsetse are the insect vectors of the African trypanosomiases. As with many diseases, transmission of trypanosomiasis varies through space and time. Capturing the variation of both vector and disease has, in the past, been attempted separately in the space and time dimensions, usually using deterministic techniques. Very few efforts have used space‐time covariation and have hence missed any correlations that may exist between variation in these two dimensions. Here we propose two novel approaches to space‐time analysis derived from space‐time geostatistics in a kriging framework. The approaches were developed through analysis of a dataset recording the Apparent Density of Glossina palpalis gambiensis and Glossina tachinoides (Diptera: Glossinidae) in three riparian sites in Burkina Faso over 15 months between 2006 and 2007. This site is fragmented due to human activity in the area. The first approach, Space Time Ordinary Kriging, does not consider the effect of fragmentation. It is used as a benchmark to test the increased explanatory power of the second method, which does account for fragmentation. The second method, Regression Space Time Simple Kriging, is a distinct improvement over the first approach because it allows for a spatial trend in the mean trap catch; this trend is related to, and later predicted from, environmental co‐variates. The results indicate the presence of space and time effects on tsetse distribution, dependent on the size of the habitat fragmentation patches. These effects occur at relatively small geographic scales within a season. Whilst such variation has long been suspected, the new methods presented here are able to quantify this variation precisely, so that seasonal and spatial comparisons can now be made both within and between species.     

The significance of genetic erosion in the process of extinction

Summary The amount of genetic variation within a population is, among other things, related to population size. In small populations loss of genetic variation due to high levels of genetic drift and inbreeding may result in decline of individual fitness and increase the chance of population extinction. This chain of processes is known as genetic erosion. In this study we tested the genetic erosion hypothesis by investigating the relation between morphological variation and population size in two perennial, outbreeding plant species, Salvia pratensis and Scabiosa columbaria. To relate phenotypic variation to genetic variation the experiments were performed under common environmental conditions. For both species a positive correlation was observed between the amount of phenotypic variation and population size (Salvia r=0.915; Scabiosa r=0.703). Part of this variation is likely to have a genetic base, although maternal effects were present in the seedling and juvenile life stages. Differences between populations could in both species be attributed to parameters related to fitness, i.e. growth rate in Salvia and reproductive effort in Scabiosa. Discriminant functions reflecting these parameters did not however discriminate between large and small populations.Results are discussed in relation to the common environment approach and to electrophoretic results obtained earlier (Van Treuren et al. 1991).     

Genetic variation and structure in the Mediterranean shrubs Myrtus communis and Pistacia lentiscus in different landscape contexts

Studies concerning different habitat configurations can provide insights into the complex interactions between species’ life‐history traits and the environment and can help to predict patterns in population genetics. In this study, we compared patterns of genetic variation in two Mediterranean shrub species (Myrtus communis and Pistacia lentiscus) that co‐occur in populations within three contrasting landscape contexts: continuous, fragmented‐connected and fragmented‐isolated populations. Analysing variation at microsatellites loci, our results revealed weak responses to the landscape contexts. We rather found a population‐specific response in both study species. However, despite both study species sharing similar levels of genetic diversity, Myrtus displayed higher levels of homozygosity and genetic differentiation among populations, stronger patterns of within‐population spatial genetic structure, lower values of mutation‐scaled effective population size and stronger evidence for recent genetic bottlenecks than Pistacia. This result highlights the influence of past events (e.g. historical connectivity, fluctuations in population size) and local factors (e.g. microhabitat availability for recruitment, habitat quality, plant density, native fauna) and that the landscape configuration per se (i.e. fragment size and/or isolation) might not completely determine the species’ genetic patterns.     

Genetic variation relevant for the conservation of the narrow endemic Senecio carbonensis (Asteraceae) from the southern Andes

We studied morphological variation, reproductive biology and genetic structure of Senecio carbonensis, a narrow endemic from high elevations of the southern Andes, and compared it to Senecio peteroanus, a closely related widespread congeneric species. Using ANOVAs and discriminant analysis we showed that populations of S. carbonensis were more similar to each other in their morphology, had comparatively limited reproductive capacity and presented lower plant density and more reduced plant cover than populations of S. peteroanus. Similar high genetic variation was found at the population and species level in both species, based on isozyme variation at 14 and 11 putative gene loci that were resolved in S. carbonensis and S. peteroanus, respectively. The two species were genetically distinct. However, the small genetic distance between populations of each species suggests that either they were recently founded and that genetic drift did not have time to promote divergence, or that its effects are masked by significant current gene flow. These results show that ecological and reproductive characteristics of S. carbonensis may limit its extension and abundance. In contrast, high genetic variation at the population level is probably favored by self‐incompatibility. Despite the restricted geographical distribution and low plant density of S. carbonensis populations, genetic characteristics do not seem to be limiting their long‐term persistence. This information suggests that populations of S. carbonensis are not at risk of extinction as a result of genetic factors, although it is important to study and monitor population dynamics to further assess the degree of recruitment through time.     

Genetic diversity does not explain variation in extra‐pair paternity in multiple populations of a songbird

Many songbirds are socially monogamous but genetically polyandrous, mating with individuals outside their pair bonds. Extra‐pair paternity (EPP) varies within and across species, but reasons for this variation remain unclear. One possible source of variation is population genetic diversity, which has been shown in interspecific meta‐analyses to correlate with EPP but which has limited support from intraspecific tests. Using eight populations of the genetically polyandrous red‐winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus), including an island population, we investigated whether population‐level differences in genetic diversity led to differences in EPP. We first measured genetic diversity over 10 microsatellite loci and found, as predicted, low genetic diversity in the island population. Additional structure analyses with multilocus genotypes and mtDNA showed the island population to be distinct from the continental populations. However, the island population's EPP rate fell in the middle of the continental populations' distribution, whereas the continental populations themselves showed significant variation in EPP. This result suggests that genetic diversity by itself is not a predictor of EPP rate. We discuss reasons for the departure from previous results, including hypotheses for EPP that do not solely implicate female‐driven behaviour.     

Host‐plant genotypic diversity and community genetic interactions mediate aphid spatial distribution

Genetic variation in plants can influence the community structure of associated species, through both direct and indirect interactions. Herbivorous insects are known to feed on a restricted range of plants, and herbivore preference and performance can vary among host plants within a species due to genetically based traits of the plant (e.g., defensive compounds). In a natural system, we expect to find genetic variation within both plant and herbivore communities and we expect this variation to influence species interactions. Using a three‐species plant‐aphid model system, we investigated the effect of genetic diversity on genetic interactions among the community members. Our system involved a host plant (Hordeum vulgare) that was shared by an aphid (Sitobion avenae) and a hemi‐parasitic plant (Rhinanthus minor). We showed that aphids cluster more tightly in a genetically diverse host‐plant community than in a genetic monoculture, with host‐plant genetic diversity explaining up to 24% of the variation in aphid distribution. This is driven by differing preferences of the aphids to the different plant genotypes and their resulting performance on these plants. Within the two host‐plant diversity levels, aphid spatial distribution was influenced by an interaction among the aphid's own genotype, the genotype of a competing aphid, the origin of the parasitic plant population, and the host‐plant genotype. Thus, the overall outcome involves both direct (i.e., host plant to aphid) and indirect (i.e., parasitic plant to aphid) interactions across all these species. These results show that a complex genetic environment influences the distribution of herbivores among host plants. Thus, in genetically diverse systems, interspecific genetic interactions between the host plant and herbivore can influence the population dynamics of the system and could also structure local communities. We suggest that direct and indirect genotypic interactions among species can influence community structure and processes.     

Multiple responses to increasing spring temperatures in the breeding cycle of blue and great tits (Cyanistes caeruleus,Parus major)

Many bird species start laying their eggs earlier in response to increasing spring temperatures, but the causes of variation between and within species have not been fully explained. Moreover, synchronization of the nestling period with the food supply not only depends on first‐egg dates but also on additional reproductive parameters including laying interruptions, incubation time and nestling growth rate. We studied the breeding cycle of two sympatric and closely related species, the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus and the great tit Parus major in a rich oak‐beech forest, and found that both advanced their mean first‐egg dates by 11–12 days over the last three decades. In addition, the time from first egg to fledging has shortened by 2–3 days, through a decrease in laying interruptions, incubation time (not statistically significant) and nestling development time. This decrease is correlated with a gradual increase of temperatures during laying, suggesting a major effect of the reduction in laying interruptions. In both species, the occurrence of second clutches has strongly decreased over time. As a consequence, the average time of fledging (all broods combined) has advanced by 15.4 and 18.6 days for blue and great tits, respectively, and variance in fledging dates has decreased by 70–75%. Indirect estimates of the food peak suggest that both species have maintained synchronization with the food supply. We found consistent selection for large clutch size, early laying and short nest time (laying to fledging), but no consistent changes in selection over time. Analyses of within‐individual variation show that most of the change can be explained by individual plasticity in laying date, fledging date and nest time. This study highlights the importance of studying all components of the reproductive cycle, including second clutches, in order to assess how natural populations respond to climate change.