全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业的影响

在比较系统总结全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业影响的主要研究成果的基础上,揭示了我国西北地区现代气候变化对全球气候变暖响应的基本特征,阐述了现代气候变化对土壤水分、地表蒸发和作物气候生产力的影响规律;并且比较全面地概括了西北地区冬、春小麦、玉米、马铃薯、冬油菜、棉花、胡麻、牧草、葡萄等9种主要农作物的生长发育、病虫害、种植面积、气候产量以及畜牧业活动等对气候变化的响应特征,发现气候变化对农业生产过程的影响利弊皆存,而且不同农作物对气候变化的响应特征差异较大.研究对西北地区农业生产具有比较重要的科学指导意见.     

Influence of seasonal weather and climate variability on crop yields in Scotland

The climatic sensitivity of four important agriculture crops (wheat, barley, oats, potatoes) in a northern temperate bioclimatic region is investigated using national-level yield data for 1963–2005. The climate variables include monthly and annual meteorological data, derived bioclimatic metrics, and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. Statistical analysis shows that significant relationships between yield and climate vary depending on the crop type and month but highlight the influence of precipitation (negative correlation) and sunshine duration (positive correlation) rather than temperature. Soil moisture deficit is shown to be a particular useful indicator of yield with drier summers providing the best yields for Scotland as a whole. It is also tentatively inferred that the sensitivity of these crops, particularly wheat and barley, to soil moisture deficits has increased in recent years. This suggests that improved crop yields are optimised for dry sunny years despite the continued prevalence of considerable inter-annual variability in seasonal weather.     

The response of spring barley and winter wheat to Avena fatua population density

Populations of Avena fatua were established in crops of spring barley and winter wheat, and relationships derived between yield and other crop parameters, and weed density. Competitive effects of A. fatua, which were similar to those found in other countries, were greatest at low crop densities. Crop head numbers were reduced proportionately less than crop yield, indicating that competition was affecting other yield components. Competition increased the proportion of thin grain of barley but not of wheat. Competition had little effect on the moisture content and the contamination of the harvested grain by A. fatua, suggesting that at threshold populations these factors are unlikely to be of economic significance. It was concluded that at average crop densities, low infestations of A. fatua are likely to result in cereal yield losses in the region of 1 % for each A. fatua plant m^-2.     

Grain yield and incidence of take-all (Ophiobolus graminis Sacc.) in wheat grown in different crop sequences

The yield of wheat and the incidence of take-all were measured in crops grown in six different 4-year sequences, repeated in 3 successive years. The first crop of winter wheat grown after oats or beans yielded 13–23 cwt/acre (1632–2887 kg/ha) more grain than wheat after wheat or barley. Spring wheat after oats yielded 2–5 cwt/acre (250–625 kg/ha) more than spring wheat after wheat. The smaller yields of wheat after wheat or barley were caused mostly by greater prevalence of take-all. Regression analysis indicates that each 1 % increase in straws with take-all decreased yield of winter wheat by 0·6%. Take-all was more prevalent in the second and third successive wheat crops after oats than in the fourth crop.     

Waterfowl Nesting in Fall-Seeded and Spring-Seeded Cropland in Saskatchewan

Abstract: Waterfowl nesting in annual croplands has remained a little-known aspect of waterfowl nesting ecology because of the inability of many studies to systematically search this habitat through the nesting season. Where searches have been conducted, they are generally restricted to the period prior to seeding, and many nests found are destroyed by the seeding operation. Consequently, fall-seeded crops have been promoted as an alternative cropping practice that could increase nest survival of waterfowl nesting in croplands. During 1996–1999, we conducted 3–4 complete nest searches on 4,274 ha of cropland, including spring-seeded wheat and barley, winter wheat, and fall rye in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. Using suites of predictive models, we tested hypotheses regarding relative nest abundance and nest survival among crop types and tested the influence of several landscape-scale covariates on these metrics. Apparent nest densities were higher in fall-seeded crops (winter wheat: 0.39 nests/ha, fall rye: 0.25 nests/ha) than in spring-seeded crops (0.03 nests/ha), and nest density in spring-seeded croplands increased with percent cropland and percent wetland habitat in the surrounding landscape. Nest survival was higher in winter wheat (38%) than in either fall rye (18%) or spring-seeded crops (12%), and nest survival in spring-seeded crops increased with relative nest initiation date. Nest survival was unaffected by surrounding landscape characteristics but tended to be higher in years of average wetness. Based on our findings, winter wheat and fall rye have the potential to provide productive nesting habitat for ≥7 species of upland nesting ducks and fall-seeded crops are a conservation tool well suited to highly cropped landscapes.     

Effect of a Terminated Cover Crop and Aldicarb on Cotton Yield and Meloidogyne incognita Population Density

Terminated small grain cover crops are valuable in light textured soils to reduce wind and rain erosion and for protection of young cotton seedlings. A three-year study was conducted to determine the impact of terminated small grain winter cover crops, which are hosts for Meloidogyne incognita, on cotton yield, root galling and nematode midseason population density. The small plot test consisted of the cover treatment as the main plots (winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat) and rate of aldicarb applied in-furrow at-plant (0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg a.i./ha) as subplots in a split-plot design with eight replications, arranged in a randomized complete block design. Roots of 10 cotton plants per plot were examined at approximately 35 days after planting. Root galling was affected by aldicarb rate (9.1, 3.8 and 3.4 galls/root system for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by cover crop. Soil samples were collected in mid-July and assayed for nematodes. The winter fallow plots had a lower density of M. incognita second-stage juveniles (J2) (transformed to Log₁₀ (J2 + 1)/500 cm³ soil) than any of the cover crops (0.88, 1.58, 1.67 and 1.75 Log₁₀(J2 + 1)/500 cm³ soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). There were also fewer M. incognita eggs at midseason in the winter fallow (3,512, 7,953, 8,262 and 11,392 eggs/500 cm³ soil for winter fallow, oats, rye and wheat, respectively). Yield (kg lint per ha) was increased by application of aldicarb (1,544, 1,710 and 1,697 for 0, 0.59 and 0.84 kg aldicarb/ha), but not by any cover crop treatments. These results were consistent over three years. The soil temperature at 15 cm depth, from when soils reached 18°C to termination of the grass cover crop, averaged 9,588, 7,274 and 1,639 centigrade hours (with a minimum threshold of 10°C), in 2005, 2006 and 2007, respectively. Under these conditions, potential reproduction of M. incognita on the cover crop did not result in a yield penalty.     

Long-Term Monitoring of Rainfed Wheat Yield and Soil Water at the Loess Plateau Reveals Low Water Use Efficiency

Increasing crop yield and water use efficiency (WUE) in dryland farming requires a quantitative understanding of relationships between crop yield and the water balance over many years. Here, we report on a long-term dryland monitoring site at the Loess Plateau, Shanxi, China, where winter wheat was grown for 30 consecutive years and soil water content (0–200 cm) was measured every 10 days. The monitoring data were used to calibrate the AquaCrop model and then to analyse the components of the water balance. There was a strong positive relationship between total available water and mean cereal yield. However, only one-third of the available water was actually used by the winter wheat for crop transpiration. The remaining two-thirds were lost by soil evaporation, of which 40 and 60% was lost during the growing and fallow seasons, respectively. Wheat yields ranged from 0.6 to 3.9 ton/ha and WUE from 0.3 to 0.9 kg/m³. Results of model experiments suggest that minimizing soil evaporation via straw mulch or plastic film covers could potentially double wheat yields and WUE. We conclude that the relatively low wheat yields and low WUE were mainly related to (i) limited rainfall, (ii) low soil water storage during fallow season due to large soil evaporation, and (iii) poor synchronisation of the wheat growing season to the rain season. The model experiments suggest significant potential for increased yields and WUE.     

Climatic impacts on winter wheat in Oklahoma and potential applications to climatic and crop yield prediction

Climatic anomalies can pose severe challenges for farmers and resource managers. This is particularly significant with respect to gradually developing anomalies such as droughts. The impact of the 1995-1996 drought on the Oklahoma wheat crop, and the possibility that predictive information might have reduced some of the losses, is examined through a combined modeling approach using climatological data and a crop growth model that takes into account an extensive range of soil, climatic, and plant variables. The results show potential outcomes and also illustrate the point at which all possible climatic outcomes were predicting a significantly low wheat yield. Based on anecdotal evidence of the 1995-1996 drought, which suggested that farmers who planted at different times experienced different yields, the model was run assuming a variety of different planting dates. Results indicate that there is indeed a noticeable difference in the modeled wheat yields given different planting dates. The information regarding effectiveness of planting date can be used in conjunction with current long-range forecasts to develop improved predictions for the current growing season. This approach produces information regarding the likelihood of extreme precipitation events and the impact on crop yield, which can provide a powerful tool to farmers and others during periods of drought or other climatic extremes.     

Effects of straw mulching on soil temperature, evaporation and yield of winter wheat: field experiments on the North China Plain

Straw mulching is an effective measure to conserve soil moisture. However, the existence of straw on the soil surface also affects soil temperature, which in turn influences crop growth, especially of winter crops. Five‐year field experiments (2000–2005) investigated the effects of straw mulching and straw mass on soil temperature, soil evaporation, crop growth and development, yield and water use efficiency (WUE) of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) at Luancheng Station on the North China Plain. Soil is a moderately well‐drained loamy soil with a deep profile at the station. Two quantities of mulch were used: 3000 kg ha^?1 [less mulching (LM)] and 6000 kg ha^?1 [more mulching (MM)], representing half and all of the straw from the previous crop (maize). In the control (CK), the full quantity of mulch was ploughed into the top 20 cm of soil. The results showed that the existence of straw on the soil surface reduced the maximum, but increased the minimum diurnal soil temperature. When soil temperature was decreasing (from November to early February the next year), soil temperature (0–10 cm) under straw mulching was on average 0.3°C higher for LM and 0.58°C higher for MM than that without mulching (CK). During the period when soil temperature increased (from February to early April, the recovery and jointing stages of winter wheat), average daily soil temperature of 0–10 cm was 0.42°C lower for LM and 0.65°C lower for MM than that of CK. With the increase in leaf area index, the effect of mulching on soil temperature gradually disappeared. The lower soil temperature under mulch in spring delayed the development of winter wheat up to 7 days, which on average reduced the final grain yield by 5% for LM and 7% for MM compared with CK over the five seasons. Mulch reduced soil evaporation by 21% under LM and 40% under MM compared with CK, based on daily measuring of microlysimeters. However, because yield was reduced, the overall WUE was not improved by mulch.     

The nitrogen fertilization of spring barley

Summary From 1971 to 1979 field trials with increasing rates of fertilizer nitrogen on spring barley with sugar beet as the preceding crop were conducted on a farm on sandy loam in the south western part of The Netherlands. Prior to sowing and fertilizing soil samples were taken and analysed for mineral nitrogen (N_min). The average yield increase through application of fertilizer nitrogen was only 750 kg of grain per ha per year, the maximum yield being about 5 tonnes per ha. In the case of a fixed rate of fertilizer nitrogen per annum it can be derived from the response curves that 60 kg of N would have given the smallest average yield deficit (170 kg grain per ha) in comparison with maximum yields. With an N-advisory system based on soil analysis the average yield deficit would be at a minimum (163 kg of grain per ha) with a value for mineral soil nitrogen+fertilizer nitrogen totalling 120 kg N per ha.No relationship was found between optimum rate of fertilizer nitrogen and the amount of mineral soil nitrogen at the end of the winter. This was ascribed to the relatively small variation in mineral soil nitrogen and the weak response of the crop to fertilizer nitrogen.Promising results from nitrogen fertilizing systems based on soil analysis can be expected from more responsive crops like winter wheat, sugar beets and potatoes.With the average yield deficit compared with maximum yield as a characteristic, the usefulness of any N-advisory system can be compared, taking a fixed rate of nitrogen system as a standard.Seconded by the Agricultural Bureau of the Netherlands Fertilizer Industry (LBNM).     

中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施

东北、华北和西北50a来的平均气温增幅高于全国平均水平,气候变暖明显,尤其冬季增温最显著。区域增暖的极端最低气温远比极端最高气温的贡献大。东北、华北大部、西北东部降水量明显减少,平均每10a减少20—40mm,尤其春夏季减少最明显。这种趋势一直延续到20世纪90年代以后,干旱化趋势非常突出。在综述我国北方现代气候变化基本特征是暖干化的基础上,重点阐述了喜凉作物冬小麦、春小麦、马铃薯和喜温作物水稻、玉米、谷子、糜子等7种主要粮食作物的生长发育、品种熟性、种植区域与面积、产量与品质等对气候暖干化的响应特征。揭示了气候暖干化使春播作物播期提早,苗期生长发育速度加快,营养生长期提前,生殖生长期和全生育期延长;秋作物发育期推迟,生殖生长期和全生长期延长;越冬作物播期推迟,越冬死亡率降低,种植风险减少,春初提前返青,生殖生长期提早,全生育期缩短。使作物适宜种植区域向高纬度高海拔扩展;品种熟性向偏中晚熟高产品种发展;喜温作物和越冬作物以及冷凉气候区的作物种植面积迅速扩大;在旱作区种植不较耐旱的玉米、春小麦等作物种植面积受到制约。对雨养农业区的作物气候产量影响严重,尤其对不够耐旱的小麦和玉米的气候产量受影响最大;对较耐旱的谷子、糜子、马铃薯等影响较轻。从作物属性而言,对喜温作物水稻、玉米和越冬作物冬小麦有利于气候产量提高;对喜凉作物春小麦和马铃薯的气候产量将产生不利影响。同时,提出了从5个方面应对气候暖干化的技术措施,调整作物种植结构,确保粮食生产安全;根据不同气候年型调整各种作物种植比例;针对不同气候区域发展优势作物和配置作物种植格局;采取不同栽培技术和管理模式应对气候变化;采取综合配套技术提髙抵御灾害能力。为粮食作物安全生产和种植结构调整与布局提供科学依据。     

土壤深层供水对冬小麦干物质生产的影响

采用根系研究装置研究了土壤深层供水对冬小麦干物质生产的影响 .结果表明 ,上层低湿度下层高湿度的处理在小麦灌浆期仍然保持了较高的土壤和叶片含水量 ,具有发达的根系 ,特别是 1m以下的根量在 4个处理中为最高 ,旗叶和穗的干重也最大 ,具有最大的产量潜力 .本研究表明 ,上层土壤较干下层土壤湿润有利于发挥小麦根信号的积极作用 ,平衡水分利用 ,同时通过对土壤水分的合理调节可以促进深层根的发育 ,有利于提高产量和水分利用效率 .     

基于WOFOST作物生长模型的冬小麦干旱影响评估技术

为了反映作物与干旱的相互关系,人为再现干旱灾害对作物产量的影响程度,选择华北地区冬小麦干旱灾害为研究对象,对作物生长模型WOFOST在区域上进行适应性进行分析、检验的基础上,然后利用区域作物模型实现干旱灾害对作物影响定量分析和动态评估。以减产率和气象条件作为灾害严重程度划分的标准,利用数值模拟试验,确定导致减产的主要气象因子及其量值,对研究区干旱灾害进行影响评估,包括典型灾害年份影响评估和年代际灾害影响评估,并给出了评估结果。     

Effect of coupled reduced irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer on soil mite community composition in a wheat field

Groundwater and nitrogen fertilizer overuse severely threatens crop productions; thus, current ecological agriculture requires low irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer inputs. The effects of combined reduced irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer addition on soil organism (e.g., mite) community and biodiversity remain poorly understood. We analyzed soil mite community composition, wheat grain yield, and soil characteristics in a 10‐year manipulation experiment with two levels of irrigation (reduced and conventional irrigation) and five nitrogen fertilizer levels (0, 70, 140, 210, and 280 kg N/ha). Reduced irrigation (20% reduction, from 280 to 220 mm) and nitrogen fertilizer (25% reduction, from 280 to 210 kg N/ha) addition did not significantly influence soil mite community and wheat yield. The relative abundances of fungivores and predators showed negative quadratic relationships with wheat yield, while that of plant parasites showed a positive relationship. The relationships between soil mite trophic groups and wheat yield revealed that we can evaluate the impacts of reduced irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer addition from the perspective of soil fauna. Soil mite community composition was altered by soil abiotic factors prior to reduced irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer addition. Overall, moderate reductions of irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer may not threaten to soil mite community and diversity or decrease crop production; in contrast, such reductions will benefit mite community development and the sustainable agriculture.     

黄土旱塬区土壤水分状况与作物生长、降水的关系

土壤水分研究是统筹农业生产和生态环境建设的关键环节.本研究结合4年田间定位试验,通过对黄土高原南部长武旱塬冬小麦和春玉米2012—2015年土壤水分状况的研究,分析农田土壤干层形成情况、土壤水分对作物生长的影响、降水对土壤水库的影响以及作物对土壤水分状况的影响.结果表明: 降水年型是冬小麦地土壤干层形成的主导因素,年内降水分布不均是春玉米地土壤干层形成的主导因素.长武旱塬区冬小麦和春玉米一年一季的种植制度不会导致永久性干层的产生;相较于春玉米,冬小麦根系生长习性更符合黄土旱塬区土壤水分循环特征,黄土旱塬区土壤水分有效性可保证作物产量稳定;降水作用下,冬小麦土壤水库充、放水过程呈现收获期、休闲期和苗期连续充水、缓慢消耗期和大量消耗期连续失水相互交替的特点.0～300和300～600 cm土层土壤水库不一致性现象明显,以最大根深作为野外监测试验中土壤含水量的取样深度时,由于深层土壤水库负反馈作用,不同降水年型下,休闲期和苗期的蒸散均会被高估,缓慢消耗期和大量消耗期的蒸散均会被低估.冬小麦田间过渡层存在的范围为140～360 cm;作物生长的时间跨度影响土壤水库效应的发挥,土壤水库对冬小麦供水表现为年际间的调节作用,土壤水库对春玉米供水表现为季节间的调节作用.     

Soil-applied fungicides for controlling take-all in field experiments with winter wheat

Soil treatment fungicides were tested against take-all (Gaeumannomyces graminis var. tritici) in three field experiments with winter wheat. Fungicides were applied as drenches either before sowing in autumn, and incorporated by rotary harrowing, or to the crop in spring. The most effective treatments were autumn applied benomyl (20 kg/ha) and nuarimol (0·55-4·4 kg/ha). However, the highest nuarimol concentration depressed yield. Benomyl sometimes induced a resurgence of take-all in the second wheat crop after treatment. Nuarimol had no adverse effects in subsequent crops, and neither fungicide hindered the onset of take-all decline in a third crop after treatment. The possible value of soil treatment in future control strategies is discussed.     

Influence of Heterodera avenae on winter wheat in France: experiments with resistant and susceptible varieties

A succession of oat crops resistant or susceptible to Heterodera avenue produced plots lightly or moderately infested with the pest with little risk of interaction with other soil pathogens in succeeding cereal crops. Using these plots, the effects of the nematode on growth and yield of winter wheat were studied. The nematode affected the crop throughout its development, with a marked effect on yield. The effects of H. avenue are similar to those of water stress and are accentuated to a greater or lesser extent by climatic conditions. In the field the efficacy and durability of resistant genes incorporated in wheat and oats were checked. After four-years' cultivation of oats (cv. Panema), no resistance-breaking pathotypes were detected. Some advanced wheat lines with nematode resistance were also tolerant of nematode attack.     

Predicting how adaptation to climate change could affect ecological conservation: secondary impacts of shifting agricultural suitability

Aim:  Ecosystems face numerous well‐documented threats from climate change. The well‐being of people also is threatened by climate change, most prominently by reduced food security. Human adaptation to food scarcity, including shifting agricultural zones, will create new threats for natural ecosystems. We investigated how shifts in crop suitability because of climate change may overlap currently protected areas (PAs) and priority sites for PA expansion in South Africa. Predicting the locations of suitable climate conditions for crop growth will assist conservationists and decision‐makers in planning for climate change. Location:  South Africa. Methods:  We modelled climatic suitability in 2055 for maize and wheat cultivation, two extensively planted, staple crops, and overlaid projected changes with PAs and PA expansion priorities. Results:  Changes in winter climate could make an additional 2 million ha of land suitable for wheat cultivation, while changes in summer climate could expand maize suitability by up to 3.5 million ha. Conversely, 3 million ha of lands currently suitable for wheat production are predicted to become climatically unsuitable, along with 13 million ha for maize. At least 328 of 834 (39%) PAs are projected to be affected by altered wheat or maize suitability in their buffer zones. Main conclusions:  Reduced crop suitability and food scarcity in subsistence areas may lead to the exploitation of PAs for food and fuel. However, if reduced crop suitability leads to agricultural abandonment, this may afford opportunities for ecological restoration. Expanded crop suitability in PA buffer zones could lead to additional isolation of PAs if portions of newly suitable land are converted to agriculture. These results suggest that altered crop suitability will be widespread throughout South Africa, including within and around lands identified as conservation priorities. Assessing how climate change will affect crop suitability near PAs is a first step towards proactively identifying potential conflicts between human adaptation and conservation planning.     

几种作物的生理指标对土壤水分变动的阈值反应

 在生长盛期,谷子、高梁、冬小麦的气孔导度、叶水势和光合速率在一定土壤含水量范围内并不随着土壤含水量的降低而发生明显变化,只有当土壤含水量低于一定程度时,才随着土壤湿度的降低而减少,表现为对土壤水分有明显的阈值反应。不同作物此阈值下限存在差异,高粱在大于田间持水量42％～45％的根层土壤湿度条件下,气孔阻力和叶水势基本维持恒定;谷子的这个指标在50％左右,冬小麦在60％左右。而夏玉米在所试土壤湿度范围内(20％～30％土壤体积含水量),气孔阻力和叶水势基本维持不变,而光合作用随着土壤含水量的增高而出现增加趋势。表明在这4种作物中,只有玉米需要充足的水分供应才能维持其良好的生长发育,而高粱具有比其它3种作物更强的适应土壤水分变动能力,从而比其它作物更抗旱和耐旱。     

基于作物生物量估计的区域冬小麦单产预测

基于2004年中国冬小麦主产区黄淮海平原典型区内石家庄、衡水和邢台3市45个县（市）83个地面典型样区冬小麦地面实测作物单产数据、光合有效辐射、光合有效辐射分量以及相应的气象和土壤湿度数据,建立了简化的冬小麦光能转化有机物效率系数模型,基于冬小麦关键生育期（3—5月）累积作物生物量并采用地面实测的冬小麦收获指数加以校正,建立了作物生物量与作物经济产量间的定量关系,预测了2004年河北和山东平原区235个县（市）的冬小麦单产,并依据国家公布的2004年各县冬小麦统计单产验证了估产的精度.结果表明：该模型预测的2004年研究区冬小麦单产的均方根误差（RMSE）为238.5 kg·hm^-2,平均相对误差为4.28%,达到了大范围估产的精度要求,证明利用以遥感数据估算作物生物量进而预测冬小麦单产的方法是可行的.