The future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels under different scenarios

Climate and land-use changes are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and, moreover, their impacts on biodiversity are expected to increase further in the 21st century. In this study, the future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels (Spermophilus xanthoprymnus) was assessed. Accordingly, a hierarchical approach with two steps was used. First, ecological niche modelling was used to assess the impact of climate change in areas accessible to Anatolian ground squirrels through dispersal (i.e. the impact of climate change). Second, based on the habitat preferences of ground squirrels, land-use data were used to assess the impact of land-use change in suitable bioclimatic areas for Anatolian ground squirrels under present and future conditions (i.e. the combined impact of both changes). Also, priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels were identified based on in-situ climate change refugia. This study represents a first attempt to combine niche modelling and land-use data for a species in Anatolia, one of the most vulnerable regions to the drivers of biodiversity loss, because it is the region where three of biodiversity hotspots meet, and interact. Habitat suitability (i.e. suitable habitats across suitable bioclimatic areas) was projected to decline by 19–69% in the future (depending on the scenario), mainly due to the loss of suitable bioclimatic areas (47–77%, depending on the scenario) at lower elevations and in the western part of the central Anatolia and in the eastern Anatolia, suggesting that Anatolian ground squirrels will contract their range in the future, mainly due to climate change. Thus, in-situ climate change refugia were projected mainly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the central Anatolia, suggesting these regions as priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels.     

气候变化对黄土高原及邻近地区稀有种枯蝉分布的潜在影响(英文)

【目的】未来数十年的气候变化预计会是造成很多物种生境丧失的一个重要因素。对适应能力相对脆弱的地方性物种,预测气候变化对其生境的影响将对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于最大熵模型,对珍稀蝉科中国特有种枯蝉Subpsaltria yangi在当前和未来气候条件下的生境适宜度进行了评估。【结果】结果表明,枯蝉主要局限分布于黄土高原及邻近地区。预计至2050年,即使在温和的气候变化情景下,枯蝉的生境面积也会明显减少。影响枯蝉栖息地分布的关键因素为年平均气温、最冷月的最低气温、最冷季的平均气温和最潮湿月份的降水量。枯蝉现存种群栖息地应当受到保护,甘肃天水和陕西延安地区应作为枯蝉分布的核心区予以保护,以应对气候变化对其生境带来的影响。【结论】本研究获得的枯蝉适宜生境分布图可以为该稀有物种的新种群发现、现生种群分布地土地规划管理以及有效的自然保护区设立提供重要信息。     

Precipitation of the warmest quarter and temperature of the warmest month are key to understanding the effect of climate change on plant species diversity in Southern African savannah

In this study, we test for the key bioclimatic variables that significantly explain the current distribution of plant species richness in a southern African ecosystem as a preamble to predicting plant species richness under a changed climate. We used 54,000 records of georeferenced plant species data to calculate species richness and spatially interpolated climate data to derive nineteen bioclimatic variables. Next, we determined the key bioclimatic variables explaining variation in species richness across Zimbabwe using regression analysis. Our results show that two bioclimatic variables, that is, precipitation of the warmest quarter (R² = 0.92, P < 0.001) and temperature of the warmest month (R² = 0.67, P < 0.001) significantly explain variation in plant species richness. In addition, results of bioclimatic modelling using future climate change projections show a reduction in the current bio‐climatically suitable area that supports high plant species richness. However, in high‐altitude areas, plant richness is less sensitive to climate change while low‐altitude areas show high sensitivity. Our results have important implications to biodiversity conservation in areas sensitive to climate change; for example, high‐altitude areas are likely to continue being biodiversity hotspots, as such future conservation efforts should be concentrated in these areas.     

A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen

Background

The impact of global climate change on plant distribution, speciation and extinction is of current concern. Examining species climatic preferences via bioclimatic niche modelling is a key tool to study this impact. There is an established link between bioclimatic niche models and phylogenetic diversification. A next step is to examine future distribution predictions from a phylogenetic perspective. We present such a study using Cyclamen (Myrsinaceae), a group which demonstrates morphological and phenological adaptations to its seasonal Mediterranean-type climate. How will the predicted climate change affect future distribution of this popular genus of garden plants?

Results

We demonstrate phylogenetic structure for some climatic characteristics, and show that most Cyclamen have distinct climatic niches, with the exception of several wide-ranging, geographically expansive, species. We reconstruct climate preferences for hypothetical ancestral Cyclamen. The ancestral Cyclamen lineage has a preference for the seasonal Mediterranean climate characteristic of dry summers and wet winters. Future bioclimatic niches, based on BIOCLIM and Maxent models, are examined with reference to a future climate scenario for the 2050s. Over the next 50 years we predict a northward shift in the area of climatic suitability, with many areas of current distribution becoming climatically unsuitable. The area of climatic suitability for every Cyclamen species is predicted to decrease. For many species, there may be no areas with a suitable climate regardless of dispersal ability, these species are considered to be at high risk of extinction. This risk is examined from a phylogenetic perspective.

Conclusion

Examining bioclimatic niches from a phylogenetic perspective permits novel interpretations of these models. In particular, reconstruction of ancestral niches can provide testable hypothesis about the historical development of lineages. In the future we can expect a northwards shift in climatic suitability for the genus Cyclamen. If this proves to be the case then dispersal is the best chance of survival, which seems highly unlikely for ant-dispersed Cyclamen. Human-assisted establishment of Cyclamen species well outside their native ranges offers hope and could provide the only means of dispersal to potentially suitable future environments. Even without human intervention the phylogenetic perspective demonstrates that major lineages could survive climate change even if many species are lost.     

气候变化条件下山西翅果油树适宜分布区的空间迁移预测

气候变化对生物多样性的影响及其适应性直接关系着生物多样性保护的成效,预测未来气候变化条件下受威胁物种适宜生境的空间变化趋势对生物多样性保护具有重要的理论和实践意义.本文选取我国特有濒危植物翅果油树为研究对象,在区域尺度上预测气候变化条件下的物种适宜分布区,进而通过空间分析模拟不同气候变化情景下其适宜分布区的空间变化和迁移趋势.最大熵(Maxent)物种分布模型预测结果显示: 翅果油树的两个适宜分布区在未来气候变化情景下呈现不同的迁移趋势,吕梁山适生区呈现出纬度方向上的轻微波动,而中条山适生区则呈现出向高海拔地区迁移的趋势.适生区空间格局变化分析表明,翅果油树当前适生区的边界存在明显变化区域,包括新增适生区(零星分布在两个适生区的边缘地带,新增率为9.1%～20.9%)和丧失适生区(集中分布在吕梁山适生区北缘和中条山适生区东南部,丧失率为16.4%～31.2%),且两者对气候变化的响应较为敏感.利用分类统计工具Zonal计算得出,在未来气候变化条件下吕梁山适生区的中心点呈现向南迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为7.451 km;中条山适生区的中心点则呈现出向西北迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为8.284 km.表明山西翅果油树的分布对气候变化的响应较为剧烈.     

Modelling the distribution of Aspalathus linearis (Rooibos tea): implications of climate change for livelihoods dependent on both cultivation and harvesting from the wild

Aspalathus linearis (Burm. f.) R. Dahlgren (rooibos) is endemic to the Fynbos Biome of South Africa, which is an internationally recognized biodiversity hot spot. Rooibos is both an invaluable wild resource and commercially cultivated crop in suitable areas. Climate change predictions for the region indicate a significant warming scenario coupled with a decline in winter rainfall. First estimates of possible consequences for biodiversity point to species extinctions of 23% in the long term in the Fynbos Biome. Bioclimatic modelling using the maximum entropy method was used to develop an estimate of the realized niche of wild rooibos and the current geographic distribution of areas suitable for commercially production. The distribution modelling provided a good match to the known distribution and production area of A. linearis. An ensemble of global climate models that assume the A2 emissions scenario of high energy requirements was applied to develop possible scenarios of range/suitability shift under future climate conditions. When these were extrapolated to a future climate (2041–2070) both wild and cultivated tea exhibited substantial range contraction with some range shifts southeastwards and upslope. Most of the areas where range expansion was indicated are located in existing conservation areas or include conservation worthy vegetation. These findings will be critical in directing conservation efforts as well as developing strategies for farmers to cope with and adapt to climate change.     

Predicting extinction risks under climate change: coupling stochastic population models with dynamic bioclimatic habitat models

Species responses to climate change may be influenced by changes in available habitat, as well as population processes, species interactions and interactions between demographic and landscape dynamics. Current methods for assessing these responses fail to provide an integrated view of these influences because they deal with habitat change or population dynamics, but rarely both. In this study, we linked a time series of habitat suitability models with spatially explicit stochastic population models to explore factors that influence the viability of plant species populations under stable and changing climate scenarios in South African fynbos, a global biodiversity hot spot. Results indicate that complex interactions between life history, disturbance regime and distribution pattern mediate species extinction risks under climate change. Our novel mechanistic approach allows more complete and direct appraisal of future biotic responses than do static bioclimatic habitat modelling approaches, and will ultimately support development of more effective conservation strategies to mitigate biodiversity losses due to climate change.     

The Effects of Climate Change on the Long-Term Conservation of Fagus grandifolia var. mexicana, an Important Species of the Cloud Forest in Eastern Mexico

We examined the effects of climate change on the future conservation and distribution patterns of the cloud forests in eastern Mexico, by using as a species model to Fagus grandifolia Ehr. var. mexicana (Martínez) Little which is mainly located in this vegetation type, at the Sierra Madre Oriental. This species was selected because it is restricted to the cloud forest, where it is a dominant element and has not been considered for protection in any national or international law. It is probably threatened due to the fact that it plays an important social role as a source of food and furnishing. We used a floristic database and a bioclimatic modeling approach including 19 climatic parameters, in order to obtain the current potential distribution pattern of the species. Currently, its potential distribution pattern shows that it is distributed in six different Mexican Priority Regions for Conservation. In addition, we also selected a future climate scenario, on the basis of some climate changes predictions already proposed. The scenario proposed is characterized by +2 °C and −20% rainfall in the region. Under this predicted climatic condition, we found a drastic distribution contraction of the species, in which most of the remaining populations will inhabit restricted areas located outside the boundaries of the surrounding reserves. Consequently, our results highlight the importance of considering the effects of possible future climate changes on the selection of conservation areas and the urgency to conserve some remaining patches of existing cloud forests. Accordingly, we believe that our bioclimatic modeling approach represents a useful tool to undertake decisions concerning the definition of protected areas, once the current potential distribution pattern of some selected species is known.     

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km²) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.     

气候变化情景下天宝岩国家级自然保护区森林景观演替长期动态模拟

气候变化将会对森林树种结构、空间结构以及林龄结构等产生重大影响,准确预测森林景观演替对未来气候变化的响应,不仅能够为科学管理森林生态系统提供理论依据,而且对制定生物多样性保护与珍稀物种保护策略也具有重要意义。本文运用LANDIS Pro 7.0与LINKAGES模型,模拟天宝岩国家级自然保护区8个树种在2种不同气候变化情景(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)下未来300年的森林植被演替动态,分析森林景观格局变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：毛竹、马尾松、猴头杜鹃、长苞铁杉以及杉木的潜在面积分布与景观格局指数对气候变化的响应较为显著。在气候变化情景下,各树种的景观分维度均介于1.03—1.08,保护区内各景观斑块相对简单规则。毛竹、猴头杜鹃和杉木聚集度下降趋势明显而斑块密度显著上升,长苞铁杉随演替进行面积逐渐减少而聚集度相对较高且斑块密度剧增,马尾松斑块密度缓慢增加而聚集度先降后升,随气候变化这些树种的景观完整度都遭到了不同程度的破坏,且在RCP8.5气候情景下景观破碎化更严重。而气候变化对阔叶林与柳杉的影响则较小,且阔叶林在演替期间斑块密度下降而聚集度稳中有增,潜在面积分布呈现出良好的...     

Assessing ecosystem threats from global and regional change: hierarchical modeling of risk to sagebrush ecosystems from climate change, land use and invasive species in Nevada, USA

Global change poses significant challenges for ecosystem conservation. At regional scales, climate change may lead to extensive shifts in species distributions and widespread extirpations or extinctions. At landscape scales, land use and invasive species disrupt ecosystem function and reduce species richness. However, a lack of spatially explicit models of risk to ecosystems makes it difficult for science to inform conservation planning and land management. Here, I model risk to sagebrush ( Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the state of Nevada, USA from climate change, land use/land cover change, and species invasion. Risk from climate change is based on an ensemble of 10 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) projections applied to two bioclimatic envelope models (Mahalanobis distance and Maxent). Risk from land use is based on the distribution of roads, agriculture, and powerlines, and on the spatial relationships between land use and probability of cheatgrass Bromus tectorum invasion in Nevada. Risk from land cover change is based on probability and extent of pinyon-juniper ( Pinus monophylla; Juniperus spp.) woodland expansion. Climate change is most likely to negatively impact sagebrush ecosystems at the edges of its current range, particularly in southern Nevada, southern Utah, and eastern Washington. Risk from land use and woodland expansion is pervasive throughout Nevada, while cheatgrass invasion is most problematic in the northern part of the state. Cumulatively, these changes pose major challenges for conservation of sagebrush and sagebrush obligate species. This type of comprehensive assessment of ecosystem risk provides managers with spatially explicit tools important for conservation planning.     

Species distribution models for predicting the habitat suitability of Chinese fire‐bellied newt Cynops orientalis under climate change

Climate change influences species geographical distribution and diversity pattern. The Chinese fire‐bellied newt (Cynops orientalis) is an endemic species distributed in East‐central China, which has been classified as near‐threatened species recently due to habitat destruction and degradation and illegal trade in the domestic and international pet markets. So far, little is known about the spatial distribution of the species. Based on bioclimatic data of the current and future climate projections, we modeled the change in suitable habitat for C. orientalis by ten algorithms, evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping their distribution, and identified distribution shifts under climate change scenarios. In this study, 46 records of C. orientalis from East China and 8 bioclimatic variables were used. Among the ten modeling algorithms, four (GAM, GBM, Maxent, and RF) were selected according to their predictive abilities. The current habitat suitability showed that C. orientalis had a relatively wide but fragmented distribution, and it encompassed 41,862 km². The models suggested that precipitation of warmest quarter (bio18) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio6) had the highest contribution to the model. This study revealed that C. orientalis is sensitive to climate change, which will lead to a large range shift. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of range shifts for C. orientalis should provide a useful reference for implementing long‐term conservation and management strategies for amphibians in East China.     

气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的青海云杉潜在分布格局模拟

青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)是我国青藏高原东北缘特有树种,在维系我国西北地区生态平衡、水土保持、水源涵养和生物多样性等方面发挥着重要作用。基于其分布范围内的69个地理分布样点,利用最大熵(Maxent)模型对现实气候条件下青海云杉的潜在分布及其分布的主导气候因子进行分析,同时结合3种大气环流模型模拟青海云杉在3种气候变化情景(温室气候排放量不同)下未来2050s和2080s潜在分布区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型对青海云杉潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,所有模型的平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC测试值)均高于0.99;Jackknife检验和气候因子响应曲线表明年最低降雨量是限制青海云杉分布的主导因子;当前青海云杉的潜在分布区主要集中于青海东部、甘肃东南部、宁夏大部分地区、西藏东部、四川西部山区以及陕西、新疆和内蒙古部分地区。在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布总面积与当前相比变化不明显,但不同适生等级的潜在分布面积变化较大,其中,中度适生区和低度适生区受气候增温影响显著,中度增温下这些区域在2080s的面积明显增大,而高度适生区(核心分布)则在所有增温情景下均呈缩小趋势。同时,在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布区有向北移动趋势,但其心分布区域(高度适生区)仍然以青海东部、甘肃北部为主,无明显变迁趋势。从气候因素角度考虑,本研究表明未来气候变化情景下,青海云杉依然在西部高山地区,特别是作为我国重要生态屏障的祁连山、贺兰山等山区具有重要的经济价值并将持续其生态服务功能。     

Predicting the impact of climate change on Australia's most endangered snake, Hoplocephalus bungaroides

Aim  To predict how the bioclimatic envelope of the broad-headed snake (BHS) ( Hoplocephalus bungaroides ) may be redistributed under future climate warming scenarios.
Location  South-eastern New South Wales, Australia.
Methods  We used 159 independent locations for the species and 35 climatic variables to model the bioclimatic envelope for the BHS using two modelling approaches – B ioclim and M axent . Predictions were made under current climatic conditions and we also predicted the species distribution under low and high climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070.
Results  Broad-headed snakes currently encompass their entire bioclimatic envelope. Both modelling approaches predict that suitable climate space for BHS will be lost to varying degrees under both climate warming scenarios, and under the worst case, only 14% of known snake populations may persist.
Main conclusions  Areas of higher elevation within the current range will be most important for persistence of this species because they will remain relatively moist and cool even under climate change and will match the current climate envelope. Conservation efforts should focus on areas where suitable climate space may persist under climate warming scenarios. Long-term monitoring programs should be established both in these areas and where populations are predicted to become extirpated, so that we can accurately determine changes in the distribution of this species throughout its range.     

The Impact of Climate Change on Indigenous Arabica Coffee (Coffea arabica): Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities

Precise modelling of the influence of climate change on Arabica coffee is limited; there are no data available for indigenous populations of this species. In this study we model the present and future predicted distribution of indigenous Arabica, and identify priorities in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using distribution data we perform bioclimatic modelling and examine future distribution with the HadCM3 climate model for three emission scenarios (A1B, A2A, B2A) over three time intervals (2020, 2050, 2080). The models show a profoundly negative influence on indigenous Arabica. In a locality analysis the most favourable outcome is a c. 65% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities, and at worst an almost 100% reduction, by 2080. In an area analysis the most favourable outcome is a 38% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space, and the least favourable a c. 90% reduction, by 2080. Based on known occurrences and ecological tolerances of Arabica, bioclimatic unsuitability would place populations in peril, leading to severe stress and a high risk of extinction. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on wild populations of Arabica coffee. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the short- to medium-term (2020–2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies ‘core localities’ that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2080, and therefore serve as long-term in situ storehouses for coffee genetic resources; (3) provides the location and characterization of target locations (populations) for on-the-ground monitoring of climate change influence. Arabica coffee is confimed as a climate sensitivite species, supporting data and inference that existing plantations will be neagtively impacted by climate change.     

Predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity: a role for semi‐mechanistic community‐level modelling

Aim Robust and reliable predictions of the effects of climate change on biodiversity are required in formulating conservation and management strategies that best retain biodiversity into the future. Significant challenges in modelling climate change impacts arise from limitations in our current knowledge of biodiversity. Community‐level modelling can complement species‐level approaches in overcoming these limitations and predicting climate change impacts on biodiversity as a whole. However, the community‐level approaches applied to date have been largely correlative, ignoring the key processes that influence change in biodiversity over space and time. Here, we suggest that the development of new ‘semi‐mechanistic’ community‐level models would substantially increase our capacity to predict climate change impacts on biodiversity. Location Global. Methods Drawing on an expansive review of biodiversity modelling approaches and recent advances in semi‐mechanistic modelling at the species level, we outline the main elements of a new semi‐mechanistic community‐level modelling approach. Results Our quantitative review revealed a sharp divide between mechanistic and non‐mechanistic biodiversity modelling approaches, with very few semi‐mechanistic models developed to date. Main conclusions We suggest that the conceptual framework presented here for combining mechanistic and non‐mechanistic community‐level approaches offers a promising means of incorporating key processes into predictions of climate change impacts on biodiversity whilst working within the limits of our current knowledge.     

Shallow environmental gradients put inland species at risk: Insights and implications from predicting future distributions of Eucalyptus species in South Western Australia

As climate changes, tree decline in Mediterranean‐type ecosystems is increasing worldwide, often due to decreased effective precipitation and increased drought and heat stress, and has recently been observed in coastal species of the iconic Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae) genus in the biodiversity hotspot of south‐west Western Australia. To investigate how this drought‐related decline is likely to continue in the future, we used species distribution modelling techniques to generate broad‐scale predictions of future distribution patterns under three distinct projected climate change scenarios. In a moderate climate change scenario, suitable habitat for all species was predicted to decrease by, on average, 73% by the year 2100, with most receding into southern areas of their current distribution. Although the most severe Eucalyptus declines in south‐west Western Australia have been observed in near‐coastal regions, our predictions suggest that inland species are at greater risk from climate change, with six inland species predicted to lose 95% of their suitable habitat in a moderate change scenario. This is due to the shallow environmental gradients of inland regions causing larger spatial shifts of environmental envelopes, which is likely to be relevant in many regions of the world. The knowledge gained suggests that future research and conservation efforts in south‐west Western Australia and elsewhere should avoid focussing disproportionately on coastal regions for reasons of convenience and proximity to population centres, and properly address the inland region where the biggest future impacts may occur.     

东北地区5个物种潜在栖息地变化与优化保护规划

气候变化广泛影响着物种多样性及其分布变迁。优化模型模拟结果,获取气候变化影响下的优先保护区域将为制定应对气候变化的物种保护政策或行动提供理论依据,提升保护绩效。选取东北地区五种代表性动物,包括黑熊(Ursus thibetanus)、驼鹿(Alces alces)、水獭(Lutra lutra)、紫貂(Martes zibellina)及黑嘴松鸡(Tetrao parvirostris);结合最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟在不同RCP情景下未来3个年代(2030s,2050s,2070s)的物种潜在栖息地。根据九个常用气候模式的评价结果,获取东北地区合适的气候模式,了解气候变化对物种潜在栖息地的影响,同时开展物种保护规划,识别保护空缺,为应对气候变化、保持生物多样性提供支持。结果显示,在气候变化背景下物种潜在栖息地面积整体呈现下降趋势,但不同气候模式之间存在差异;评价结果推荐CCSM4、Nor ESM1-M、Had GEM2-AO及GFDL-CM3气候模式,推荐在东北地区使用以上气候模式进行物种未来潜在分布的研究。5个物种潜在栖息地平均面积变化率分别为-62.16%,-73.93%,-78.46%(2030s,2050s,2070s)。综合5个重点保护物种的保护优先区,大兴安岭的呼中、汗马与额尔古纳国家级自然保护区,延边地区的天佛指山、老爷岭东北虎、珲春东北虎与汪清原麝国家级自然保护区,长白山国家级自然保护区是气候变化下物种保护的热点区域。     

To Be Or Not to Be? Variable selection can change the projected fate of a threatened species under future climate

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to project future changes in the geographic ranges of species, to estimate extinction rates and to plan biodiversity conservation. However, these models can produce a range of results depending on how they are parameterized, and over‐reliance on a single model may lead to overconfidence in maps of future distributions. The choice of predictor variable can have a greater influence on projected future habitat than the range of climate models used. We demonstrate this in the case of the Ptunarra Brown Butterfly, a species listed as vulnerable in Tasmania, Australia. We use the Maxent model to develop future projections for this species based on three variable sets; all 35 commonly used so‐called ‘bioclimatic’ variables, a subset of these based on expert knowledge, and a set of monthly climate variables relevant to the species’ primary activity period. We used a dynamically downscaled regional climate model based on three global climate models. Depending on the choice of variable set, the species is projected either to experience very little contraction of habitat or to come close to extinction by the end of the century due to lack of suitable climate. The different conclusions could have important consequences for conservation planning and management, including the perceived viability of habitat restoration. The output of SDMs should therefore be used to define the range of possible trajectories a species may be on, and ongoing monitoring used to inform management as changes occur.