Human and ape molecular clocks and constraints on paleontological hypotheses

Although the relationships of the living hominoid primates (humans and apes) are well known, the relationships of the fossil species, times of divergence of both living and fossil species, and the biogeographic history of hominoids are not well established. Divergence times of living species, estimated from molecular clocks, have the potential to constrain hypotheses of the relationships of fossil species. In this study, new DNA sequences from nine protein-coding nuclear genes in great apes are added to existing datasets to increase the precision of molecular time estimates bearing on the evolutionary history of apes and humans. The divergence of Old World monkeys and hominoids at the Oligocene-Miocene boundary (approximately 23 million years ago) provides the best primate calibration point and yields a time and 95% confidence interval of 5.4 +/- 1.1 million years ago (36 nuclear genes) for the human-chimpanzee divergence. Older splitting events are estimated as 6.4 +/- 1.5 million years ago (gorilla, 31 genes), 11.3 +/- 1.3 million years ago (orangutan, 33 genes), and 14.9 +/- 2.0 million years ago (gibbon, 27 genes). Based on these molecular constraints, we find that several proposed phylogenies of fossil hominoid taxa are unlikely to be correct.     

Playing chicken (Gallus gallus): methodological inconsistencies of molecular divergence date estimates due to secondary calibration points

For any given taxonomic divergence event, one may find in the literature a wide range of time estimates. Many factors contribute to the variation in molecular date estimates for the same evolutionary event. High on the list is the choice of calibration points for converting genetic distances into evolutionary rates and, subsequently, into dates of divergence. In this study, we investigate one critical source of error in estimating divergence times, i.e. the use of secondary calibration points, which are divergence time estimates that have been derived from one molecular dataset on the basis of a primary external calibration point, and which are used again independently of the original external calibration point on a second dataset. Unless particular care is exercised, this practice leads to internal inconsistencies, and the inferred dates of divergence are by necessity unreliable. We present a consistency test for assessing the reliability of divergence time estimates based on secondary calibration points. As a case study, we examine recent estimates of divergence times among phyla and kingdoms based on multiple nuclear protein-coding genes, and show that they fail the consistency test.     

Primate molecular divergence dates

With genomic data, alignments can be assembled that greatly increase the number of informative sites for analysis of molecular divergence dates. Here, we present an estimate of the molecular divergence dates for all of the major primate groups. These date estimates are based on a Bayesian analysis of approximately 59.8 kbp of genomic data from 13 primates and 6 mammalian outgroups, using a range of paleontologically supported calibration estimates. Results support a Cretaceous last common ancestor of extant primates (approximately 77 mya), an Eocene divergence between platyrrhine and catarrhine primates (approximately 43 mya), an Oligocene origin of apes and Old World monkeys (approximately 31 mya), and an early Miocene (approximately 18 mya) divergence of Asian and African great apes. These dates are examined in the context of other molecular clock studies.     

The Wilhelmine E. Key 2001 Invitational Lecture. Estimation of divergence times for a few mammalian and several primate species

Statistical methods for estimating divergence times by using multiprotein gamma distances are discussed. When a large number of proteins are used, even a small degree of deviation from the molecular clock hypothesis can be detected. In this case, one may use the stem-lineage method for estimating divergence times. However, the estimates obtained by this method are often similar to those obtained by the linearized tree method. Application of these methods to a dataset of 104 proteins from several vertebrate species indicated that the divergence times between humans and mice and between mice and rats are about 96 and 33 million years (MY) ago, respectively. These estimates were obtained by assuming that birds and mammals diverged 310 MY ago. Similarly application of the methods to the protein sequence data from primate species indicated that the human lineage separated from the chimpanzee, gorilla, Old World monkeys, and New World monkeys about 6.0, 7.0, 23.0, and 33.0 MY ago, respectively. In this case the use of two calibration points, that is, the divergence time (13 MY ago) between humans and orangutans and between primates and artiodactyls (90 MY ago) gave essentially the same estimates.     

Estimation of primate speciation dates using local molecular clocks

Protein-coding genes of the mitochondrial genomes from 31 mammalian species were analyzed to estimate the speciation dates within primates and also between rats and mice. Three calibration points were used based on paleontological data: one at 20-25 MYA for the hominoid/cercopithecoid divergence, one at 53-57 MYA for the cetacean/artiodactyl divergence, and the third at 110-130 MYA for the metatherian/eutherian divergence. Both the nucleotide and the amino acid sequences were analyzed, producing conflicting results. The global molecular clock was clearly violated for both the nucleotide and the amino acid data. Models of local clocks were implemented using maximum likelihood, allowing different evolutionary rates for some lineages while assuming rate constancy in others. Surprisingly, the highly divergent third codon positions appeared to contain phylogenetic information and produced more sensible estimates of primate divergence dates than did the amino acid sequences. Estimated dates varied considerably depending on the data type, the calibration point, and the substitution model but differed little among the four tree topologies used. We conclude that the calibration derived from the primate fossil record is too recent to be reliable; we also point out a number of problems in date estimation when the molecular clock does not hold. Despite these obstacles, we derived estimates of primate divergence dates that were well supported by the data and were generally consistent with the paleontological record. Estimation of the mouse-rat divergence date, however, was problematic.     

Reading the entrails of chickens: molecular timescales of evolution and the illusion of precision

For almost a decade now, a team of molecular evolutionists has produced a plethora of seemingly precise molecular clock estimates for divergence events ranging from the speciation of cats and dogs to lineage separations that might have occurred approximately 4 billion years ago. Because the appearance of accuracy has an irresistible allure, non-specialists frequently treat these estimates as factual. In this article, we show that all of these divergence-time estimates were generated through improper methodology on the basis of a single calibration point that has been unjustly denuded of error. The illusion of precision was achieved mainly through the conversion of statistical estimates (which by definition possess standard errors, ranges and confidence intervals) into errorless numbers. By employing such techniques successively, the time estimates of even the most ancient divergence events were made to look deceptively precise. For example, on the basis of just 15 genes, the arthropod-nematode divergence event was 'calculated' to have occurred 1167+/-83 million years ago (i.e. within a 95% confidence interval of approximately 350 million years). Were calibration and derivation uncertainties taken into proper consideration, the 95% confidence interval would have turned out to be at least 40 times larger ( approximately 14.2 billion years).     

Calibration choice, rate smoothing, and the pattern of tetrapod diversification according to the long nuclear gene RAG-1

A phylogeny of tetrapods is inferred from nearly complete sequences of the nuclear RAG-1 gene sampled across 88 taxa encompassing all major clades, analyzed via parsimony and Bayesian methods. The phylogeny provides support for Lissamphibia, Theria, Lepidosauria, a turtle-archosaur clade, as well as most traditionally accepted groupings. This tree allows simultaneous molecular clock dating for all tetrapod groups using a set of well-corroborated calibrations. Relaxed clock (PLRS) methods, using the amniote = 315 Mya (million years ago) calibration or a set of consistent calibrations, recovers reasonable divergence dates for most groups. However, the analysis systematically underestimates divergence dates within archosaurs. The bird-crocodile split, robustly documented in the fossil record as being around approximately 245 Mya, is estimated at only approximately 190 Mya, and dates for other divergences within archosaurs are similarly underestimated. Archosaurs, and particulary turtles have slow apparent rates possibly confounding rate modeling, and inclusion of calibrations within archosaurs (despite their high deviances) not only improves divergence estimates within archosaurs, but also across other groups. Notably, the monotreme-therian split ( approximately 210 Mya) matches the fossil record; the squamate radiation ( approximately 190 Mya) is younger than suggested by some recent molecular studies and inconsistent with identification of approximately 220 and approximately 165 Myo (million-year-old) fossils as acrodont iguanians and approximately 95 Myo fossils colubroid snakes; the bird-lizard (reptile) split is considerably older than fossil estimates (< or = 285 Mya); and Sphenodon is a remarkable phylogenetic relic, being the sole survivor of a lineage more than a quarter of a billion years old. Comparison with other molecular clock studies of tetrapod divergences suggests that the common practice of enforcing most calibrations as minima, with a single liberal maximal constraint, will systematically overestimate divergence dates. Similarly, saturation of mitochondrial DNA sequences, and the resultant greater compression of basal branches means that using only external deep calibrations will also lead to inflated age estimates within the focal ingroup.     

Molecular Clock Calibrations and Metazoan Divergence Dates

It has recently been argued that living metazoans diverged over 800 million years ago, based on evidence from 22 nuclear genes for such a deep divergence between vertebrates and arthropods (Gu 1998). Two ``internal' calibration points were used. However, only one fossil divergence date (the mammal–bird split) was directly used to calibrate the molecular clock. The second calibration point (the primate–rodent split) was based on molecular estimates that were ultimately also calibrated by the same mammal–bird split. However, the first tetrapods that can be assigned with confidence to either the mammal (synapsid) lineage or the bird (diapsid) lineage are approximately 288 million years old, while the first mammals that can be assigned with confidence to either the primate or the rodent lineages are 65 million years old, or 85 million years old if ferungulates are part of the primate lineage and zhelestids are accepted as ferungulate relatives. Recalibration of the protein data using these fossil dates indicates that metazoans diverged between 791 and 528 million years ago, a result broadly consistent with the palaeontological documentation of the ``Cambrian explosion.' The third, ``external' calibration point (the metazoan–fungal divergence) was similarly problematic, since it was based on a controversial molecular study (which in turn used fossil dates including the mammal–bird split); direct use of fossils for this calibration point gives the absurd dating of 455 million years for metazoan divergences. Similar calibration problems affect another recent study (Wang et al. 1999), which proposes divergences for metazoans of 1000 million years or more: recalibrations of their clock again yields much more recent dates, some consistent with a ``Cambrian explosion' scenario. Molecular clock studies have persuasively argued for the imperfection of the fossil record but have rarely acknowledged that their inferences are also directly based on this same record. Received: 26 January 1999 / Accepted: 14 April 1999     

Can fast early rates reconcile molecular dates with the Cambrian explosion?

Molecular dates consistently place the divergence of major metazoan lineages in the Precambrian, leading to the suggestion that the 'Cambrian explosion' is an artefact of preservation which left earlier forms unrecorded in the fossil record. While criticisms of molecular analyses for failing to deal with variation in the rate of molecular evolution adequately have been countered by analyses which allow both site-to-site and lineage-specific rate variation, no analysis to date has allowed the rates to vary temporally. If the rates of molecular evolution were much higher early in the metazoan radiation, molecular dates could consistently overestimate the divergence times of lineages. Here, we use a new method which uses multiple calibration dates and an empirically determined range of possible substitution rates to place bounds on the basal date of divergence of lineages in order to ask whether faster rates of molecular evolution early in the metazoan radiation could possibly account for the discrepancy between molecular and palaeontological date estimates. We find that allowing basal (interphylum) lineages the fastest observed substitution rate brings the minimum possible divergence date (586 million years ago) to the Vendian period, just before the first multicellular animal fossils, but excludes divergence of the major metazoan lineages in a Cambrian explosion.     

Arrival and diversification of caviomorph rodents and platyrrhine primates in South America

Platyrrhine primates and caviomorph rodents are clades of mammals that colonized South America during its period of isolation from the other continents, between 100 and 3 million years ago (Mya). Until now, no molecular study investigated the timing of the South American colonization by these two lineages with the same molecular data set. Using sequences from three nuclear genes (ADRA2B, vWF, and IRBP, both separate and combined) from 60 species, and eight fossil calibration constraints, we estimated the times of origin and diversification of platyrrhines and caviomorphs via a Bayesian relaxed molecular clock approach. To account for the possible effect of an accelerated rate of evolution of the IRBP gene along the branch leading to the anthropoids, we performed the datings with and without IRBP (3768 sites and 2469 sites, respectively). The time window for the colonization of South America by primates and by rodents is demarcated by the dates of origin (upper bound) and radiation (lower bound) of platyrrhines and caviomorphs. According to this approach, platyrrhine primates colonized South America between 37.0 +/- 3.0 Mya (or 38.9 +/- 4.0 Mya without IRBP) and 16.8 +/- 2.3 (or 20.1 +/- 3.3) Mya, and caviomorph rodents between 45.4 +/- 4.1 (or 43.7 +/- 4.8) Mya and 36.7 +/- 3.7 (or 35.8 +/- 4.3) Mya. Considering both the fossil record and these molecular datings, the favored scenarios are a trans-Atlantic migration of primates from Africa at the end of the Eocene or beginning of the Oligocene, and a colonization of South America by rodents during the Middle or Late Eocene. Based on our nuclear DNA data, we cannot rule out the possibility of a concomitant arrival of primates and rodents in South America. The caviomorphs radiated soon after their arrival, before the Oligocene glaciations, and these early caviomorph lineages persisted until the present. By contrast, few platyrrhine fossils are known in the Oligocene, and the present-day taxa are the result of a quite recent, Early Miocene diversification.     

Fossils, molecules, divergence times, and the origin of lissamphibians

A review of the paleontological literature shows that the early dates of appearance of Lissamphibia recently inferred from molecular data do not favor an origin of extant amphibians from temnospondyls, contrary to recent claims. A supertree is assembled using new Mesquite modules that allow extinct taxa to be incorporated into a time-calibrated phylogeny with a user-defined geological time scale. The supertree incorporates 223 extinct species of lissamphibians and has a highly significant stratigraphic fit. Some divergences can even be dated with sufficient precision to serve as calibration points in molecular divergence date analyses. Fourteen combinations of minimal branch length settings and 10 random resolutions for each polytomy give much more recent minimal origination times of lissamphibian taxa than recent studies based on a phylogenetic analyses of molecular sequences. Attempts to replicate recent molecular date estimates show that these estimates depend strongly on the choice of calibration points, on the dating method, and on the chosen model of evolution; for instance, the estimate for the date of the origin of Lissamphibia can lie between 351 and 266 Mya. This range of values is generally compatible with our time-calibrated supertree and indicates that there is no unbridgeable gap between dates obtained using the fossil record and those using molecular evidence, contrary to previous suggestions.     

Time dependency of molecular rate estimates and systematic overestimation of recent divergence times

Studies of molecular evolutionary rates have yielded a wide range of rate estimates for various genes and taxa. Recent studies based on population-level and pedigree data have produced remarkably high estimates of mutation rate, which strongly contrast with substitution rates inferred in phylogenetic (species-level) studies. Using Bayesian analysis with a relaxed-clock model, we estimated rates for three groups of mitochondrial data: avian protein-coding genes, primate protein-coding genes, and primate d-loop sequences. In all three cases, we found a measurable transition between the high, short-term (< 1-2 Myr) mutation rate and the low, long-term substitution rate. The relationship between the age of the calibration and the rate of change can be described by a vertically translated exponential decay curve, which may be used for correcting molecular date estimates. The phylogenetic substitution rates in mitochondria are approximately 0.5% per million years for avian protein-coding sequences and 1.5% per million years for primate protein-coding and d-loop sequences. Further analyses showed that purifying selection offers the most convincing explanation for the observed relationship between the estimated rate and the depth of the calibration. We rule out the possibility that it is a spurious result arising from sequence errors, and find it unlikely that the apparent decline in rates over time is caused by mutational saturation. Using a rate curve estimated from the d-loop data, several dates for last common ancestors were calculated: modern humans and Neandertals (354 ka; 222-705 ka), Neandertals (108 ka; 70-156 ka), and modern humans (76 ka; 47-110 ka). If the rate curve for a particular taxonomic group can be accurately estimated, it can be a useful tool for correcting divergence date estimates by taking the rate decay into account. Our results show that it is invalid to extrapolate molecular rates of change across different evolutionary timescales, which has important consequences for studies of populations, domestication, conservation genetics, and human evolution.     

The evolution of the mitochondrial D-loop region and the origin of modern man.

The origin of modern man is a highly debated issue that has recently been tackled by using mitochondrial DNA sequences. The limited genetic variability of human mtDNA has been explained in terms of a recent common genetic ancestry, thus implying that all modern-population mtDNAs originated from a single woman who lived in Africa less than 0.2 Mya. This divergence time is based on both the estimation of the rate of mtDNA change and its calibration date. Because different estimates of the rate of mtDNA evolution can completely change the scenario of the origin of modern man, we have reanalyzed the available mitochondrial sequence data by using an improved version of the statistical model, the "Markov clock," devised in our laboratory. Our analysis supports the African origin of modern man, but we found that the ancestral female from which all extant human mtDNAs originated lived in a time span of 0.3-0.8 Mya. Pushing back the date of the deepest root of the human implies that the earliest divergence would have been in the Homo erectus population.     

Molecular clocks and geological dates: cytochrome b of Anolis extremus substantially contradicts dating of Barbados emergence

Even though molecular clocks vary in rate to some extent, they are widely used and very important in a range of evolutionary studies, not least in interpreting cause and colonization in phylogeography. Evolutionists may use island age and emergence to give the earliest possible date for colonization by a species and hence give the lower limit in a molecular clock calibration. The geology of the Lesser Antilles is well studied and Barbados, although composed of some ancient rocks, is thought to have emerged only about 1 million years ago (Ma). The cytochrome b mitochondrial gene is the most widely used gene in vertebrate phylogeography, and generally evolves at a rate of 1-2% per million years (Myr) for poikilothermic vertebrates. Divergence measured across almost all of this gene in the endemic anole (Anolis extremus) reveals a mean patristic distance of approximately 8.3% between this clade and its sister, together with distinct divergence and phylogeographical structure within Barbados. The divergence time, estimated by a range of procedures using four calibration points, is not in the least compatible with the proposed geological time of emergence of Barbados. Hence, either the molecular clock rate does not apply to the Barbadian anole population, or the geological dating of the emergence of Barbados is erroneous. The compatibility of geological times and molecular divergence of this complex on Martinique, together with relative rates tests comparing the rates on Barbados and Martinique, do not suggest atypical clock rates. The question of whether Barbados emerged much earlier than is currently thought, or whether the molecular clock assumptions are inappropriate, remains open.     

Genomic data reject the hypothesis of a prosimian primate clade

The phylogenetic position of tarsiers within the primates has been a controversial subject for over a century. Despite numerous morphological and molecular studies, there has been weak support for grouping tarsiers with either strepsirrhine primates in a prosimian clade or with anthropoids in a haplorrhine clade. Here, we take advantage of the recently released whole genome assembly of the Philippine tarsier, Tarsius syrichta, in order to infer the phylogenetic relationship of Tarsius within the order Primates. We also present estimates of divergence times within the primates. Using a 1.26 million base pair multiple sequence alignment derived from 1078 orthologous genes, we provide overwhelming statistical support for the presence of a haplorrhine clade. We also present divergence date estimates using local relaxed molecular clock methods. The estimated time of the most recent common ancestor of extant Primates ranged from 64.9 Ma to 72.6 Ma, and haplorrhines were estimated to have a most recent common ancestor between 58.9 Ma and 68.6 Ma. Examination of rates of nucleotide substitution in the three major extant primate clades show that anthropoids have a slower substitution rate than either strepsirrhines or tarsiers. Our results provide the framework on which primate morphological, reproductive, and genomic features can be reconstructed in the broader context of mammalian phylogeny.     

Domestication of maize, sorghum, and sugarcane did not drive the divergence of their smut pathogens

We investigated two alternative hypotheses for the origin of crop pathogen species: that human-mediated agricultural practices drove the divergence of many crop plant pathogen species or that coevolutionary processes in natural populations of the crops' ancestors drove divergence of pathogen species. We distinguished between these two hypotheses by constructing a robust multigene phylogeny and estimating the dates of divergence among four, monophyletic species of smut fungi (Ustilago maydis, U. scitaminea, Sporisorium reilianum, S. sorghi) known to specifically infect maize, sorghum, sugarcane, and their wild ancestors. Without a fossil record for smut fungi, we calibrated the pathogen species' divergence times to their plant host divergence times. Specifically, a calibration date of 10,000 years was employed to test the hypothesis that the fungal species originated at the time of domestication of their current hosts and a calibration date of 50 million years was employed to test the hypothesis that the fungal species originated on wild ancestors of their domesticated hosts. Substitution rates at five protein coding genes were calculated and rates obtained for the 10,000 year calibration date were orders of magnitude faster than those commonly reported for eukaryotes, thus rejecting the hypothesis that these smut pathogen species diverged at the time of domestication. In contrast, substitution rates obtained for the 50 million year calibration were comparable to eukaryotic substitution rates. We used the 50 million year calibration to estimate divergence times of taxa in two datasets, one comprised solely the focal species and one comprised the focal species and additional related taxa. Both datasets indicate that all taxa diverged millions of years ago, strongly supporting the hypothesis that smut species diverged before the time of domestication and modern agriculture. Thus, smut species diverged in the ecological context of natural host plant and fungal populations.     

Molecular distance and divergence time in carnivores and primates

Numerous studies have used indices of genetic distance between species to reconstruct evolutionary relationships and to estimate divergence time. However, the empirical relationship between molecular-based indices of genetic divergence and divergence time based on the fossil record is poorly known. To date, the results of empirical studies conflict and are difficult to compare because they differ widely in their choice of taxa, genetic techniques, or methods for calibrating rates of molecular evolution. We use a single methodology to analyze the relationship of molecular distance and divergence time in 86 taxa (72 carnivores and 14 primates). These taxa have divergence times of 0.01-55 Myr and provide a graded series of phylogenetic divergences such that the shape of the curve relating genetic distance and divergence time is often well defined. The techniques used to obtain genetic distance estimates include one- and two-dimensional protein electrophoresis, DNA hybridization, and microcomplement fixation. Our results suggest that estimates of molecular distance and divergence time are highly correlated. However, rates of molecular evolution are not constant; rather, in general they decline with increasing divergence time in a linear fashion. The rate of decline may differ according to technique and taxa. Moreover, in some cases the variability in evolutionary rates changes with increasing divergence time such that the accuracy of nodes in a phylogenetic tree varies predictably with time.     

Comparison of likelihood and Bayesian methods for estimating divergence times using multiple gene Loci and calibration points, with application to a radiation of cute-looking mouse lemur species

Divergence time and substitution rate are seriously confounded in phylogenetic analysis, making it difficult to estimate divergence times when the molecular clock (rate constancy among lineages) is violated. This problem can be alleviated to some extent by analyzing multiple gene loci simultaneously and by using multiple calibration points. While different genes may have different patterns of evolutionary rate change, they share the same divergence times. Indeed, the fact that each gene may violate the molecular clock differently leads to the advantage of simultaneous analysis of multiple loci. Multiple calibration points provide the means for characterizing the local evolutionary rates on the phylogeny. In this paper, we extend previous likelihood models of local molecular clock for estimating species divergence times to accommodate multiple calibration points and multiple genes. Heterogeneity among different genes in evolutionary rate and in substitution process is accounted for by the models. We apply the likelihood models to analyze two mitochondrial protein-coding genes, cytochrome oxidase II and cytochrome b, to estimate divergence times of Malagasy mouse lemurs and related outgroups. The likelihood method is compared with the Bayes method of Thorne et al. (1998, Mol. Biol. Evol. 15:1647-1657), which uses a probabilistic model to describe the change in evolutionary rate over time and uses the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure to derive the posterior distribution of rates and times. Our likelihood implementation has the drawbacks of failing to accommodate uncertainties in fossil calibrations and of requiring the researcher to classify branches on the tree into different rate groups. Both problems are avoided in the Bayes method. Despite the differences in the two methods, however, data partitions and model assumptions had the greatest impact on date estimation. The three codon positions have very different substitution rates and evolutionary dynamics, and assumptions in the substitution model affect date estimation in both likelihood and Bayes analyses. The results demonstrate that the separate analysis is unreliable, with dates variable among codon positions and between methods, and that the combined analysis is much more reliable. When the three codon positions were analyzed simultaneously under the most realistic models using all available calibration information, the two methods produced similar results. The divergence of the mouse lemurs is dated to be around 7-10 million years ago, indicating a surprisingly early species radiation for such a morphologically uniform group of primates.     

Expansion dating: calibrating molecular clocks in marine species from expansions onto the Sunda Shelf Following the Last Glacial Maximum

The rate of change in DNA is an important parameter for understanding molecular evolution and hence for inferences drawn from studies of phylogeography and phylogenetics. Most rate calibrations for mitochondrial coding regions in marine species have been made from divergence dating for fossils and vicariant events older than 1-2 My and are typically 0.5-2% per lineage per million years. Recently, calibrations made with ancient DNA (aDNA) from younger dates have yielded faster rates, suggesting that estimates of the molecular rate of change depend on the time of calibration, decaying from the instantaneous mutation rate to the phylogenetic substitution rate. aDNA methods for recent calibrations are not available for most marine taxa so instead we use radiometric dates for sea-level rise onto the Sunda Shelf following the Last Glacial Maximum (starting ～18,000 years ago), which led to massive population expansions for marine species. Instead of divergence dating, we use a two-epoch coalescent model of logistic population growth preceded by a constant population size to infer a time in mutational units for the beginning of these expansion events. This model compares favorably to simpler coalescent models of constant population size, and exponential or logistic growth, and is far more precise than estimates from the mismatch distribution. Mean rates estimated with this method for mitochondrial coding genes in three invertebrate species are elevated in comparison to older calibration points (2.3-6.6% per lineage per million years), lending additional support to the hypothesis of calibration time dependency for molecular rates.     

Bayesian models of episodic evolution support a late precambrian explosive diversification of the Metazoa

Multicellular animals, or Metazoa, appear in the fossil records between 575 and 509 million years ago (MYA). At odds with paleontological evidence, molecular estimates of basal metazoan divergences have been consistently older than 700 MYA. However, those date estimates were based on the molecular clock hypothesis, which is almost always violated. To relax this hypothesis, we have implemented a Bayesian approach to describe the change of evolutionary rate over time. Analysis of 22 genes from the nuclear and the mitochondrial genomes under the molecular clock assumption produced old date estimates, similar to those from previous studies. However, by allowing rates to vary in time and by taking small species-sampling fractions into account, we obtained much younger estimates, broadly consistent with the fossil records. In particular, the date of protostome-deuterostome divergence was on average 582 +/- 112 MYA. These results were found to be robust to specification of the model of rate change. The clock assumption thus had a dramatic effect on date estimation. However, our results appeared sensitive to the prior model of cladogenesis, although the oldest estimates (791 +/- 246 MYA) were obtained under a suboptimal model. Bayes posterior estimates of evolutionary rates indicated at least one major burst of molecular evolution at the end of the Precambrian when protostomes and deuterostomes diverged. We stress the importance of assumptions about rates on date estimation and suggest that the large discrepancies between the molecular and fossil dates of metazoan divergences might partly be due to biases in molecular date estimation.