Rethinking tropical phenology: insights from long‐term monitoring and novel analytical methods

Here, we introduce the Special Section (SS) on long‐term monitoring and new analytical methods in tropical phenology. The SS puts together nine original papers plus a synthesis, bringing significant advances and new insights into our understanding of tropical phenology across Africa and tropical America. The papers address environmental cues, methodological shortcomings, and provide innovative analytical approaches, opening new pathways, perspective and applications of tropical phenology for forest management and environmental monitoring. The SS is a substantial step toward a more comprehensive overview of trends in tropical phenology, as seven of nine studies evaluate >10‐yr data sets applying new methods of analysis such as hierarchical Bayesian models, generalized additive models, and Fourier analysis. We argue that it is essential to maintain ongoing monitoring programs and build a tropical phenology network at least for long‐term (>10 yr) study sites, providing the means for national and international financial support. Cross‐continental comparisons are now a primary goal, as we work toward a global vision of trends and shifts in tropical phenology in the Anthropocene.     

Generalized additive mixed models for disentangling long‐term trends,local anomalies,and seasonality in fruit tree phenology

Quantifying temporal patterns of ephemeral plant structures such as leaves, flowers, and fruits gives insight into both plant and animal ecology. Different scales of temporal changes in fruits, for example within‐ versus across‐year variability, are driven by different processes, but are not always easy to disentangle. We apply generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to study a long‐term fruit presence–absence data set of individual trees collected from a high‐altitude Afromontane tropical rain forest site within Bwindi Impenetrable National Park (BINP), Uganda. Our primary aim was to highlight and evaluate GAMM methodology, and quantify both intra‐ and interannual changes in fruit production. First, we conduct several simulation experiments to study the practical utility of model selection and smooth term estimation relevant for disentangling intra‐ and interannual variability. These simulations indicate that estimation of nonlinearity and seasonality is generally accurately identified using asymptotic theory. Applied to the empirical data set, we found that the forest‐level fruiting variability arises from both regular seasonality and significant interannual variability, with the years 2009–2010 in particular showing a significant increase in the presence of fruits‐driven by increased productivity of most species, and a regular annual peak associated occurring at the end of one of the two dry seasons. Our analyses illustrate a statistical framework for disentangling short‐term increases/decreases in fruiting effort while pinpointing specific times in which fruiting is atypical, providing a first step for assessing the impacts of regular and irregular (e.g., climate change) abiotic covariates on fruiting phenology. Some consequences of the rich diversity of fruiting patterns observed here for the population biology of frugivores in BINP are also discussed.     

Temporal variation in the influence of forest succession on caterpillar communities: A long‐term study in a tropical dry forest

Forest succession can influence herbivore communities through changes in host availability, plant quality, microclimate, canopy structure complexity and predator abundance. It is not well known, however, if such influence is constant across years. Caterpillars have been reported to be particularly susceptible to changes in plant community composition across forest succession, as most species are specialists and rely on the presence of their hosts. Nevertheless, in the case of tropical dry forests, plant species have less defined successional boundaries than tropical wet forests, and hence herbivore communities should be able to persist across different successional stages. To test this prediction, caterpillar communities were surveyed during eight consecutive years in a tropical dry forest in four replicated successional stages in Chamela, Jalisco and Mexico. Lepidopteran species richness and diversity were equivalent in mature forests and early successional stages, but a distinctive caterpillar community was found for the recently abandoned pastures. Species composition tended to converge among all four successional stages during the span of eight years. Overall, our results highlight the importance of both primary and secondary forest for the conservation of caterpillar biodiversity at a landscape level. We also highlight the relevance of long‐term studies when assessing the influence of forest succession to account for across year variation in species interactions and climatic factors. Abstract in French is available with online material.     

An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change

Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying the SST gradient that is most closely associated with June–August precipitation over the south Amazon. We use an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations forced by observed SST from 1949 to 2005. A large number of tropical Atlantic SST gradient indices are generated randomly and temporal correlations are examined between these indices and June–August precipitation averaged over the Amazon Basin south of the equator. The indices correlating most strongly with June–August southern Amazon precipitation form a cluster of near-meridional orientation centred near the equator. The location of the southern component of the gradient is particularly well defined in a region off the Brazilian tropical coast, consistent with known physical mechanisms. The chosen index appears to capture much of the Atlantic SST influence on simulated southern Amazon dry-season precipitation, and is significantly correlated with observed southern Amazon precipitation.We examine the index in 36 different coupled atmosphere–ocean model projections of climate change under a simple compound 1% increase in CO₂. Within the large spread of responses, we find a relationship between the projected trend in the index and the Amazon dry-season precipitation trends. Furthermore, the magnitude of the trend relationship is consistent with the inter-annual variability relationship found in the AGCM simulations. This suggests that the index would be of use in quantifying uncertainties in climate change in the region.     

No evidence for consistent long‐term growth stimulation of 13 tropical tree species: results from tree‐ring analysis

The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate–vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO₂‐fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest‐stand level, but insights into species‐specific growth changes – that ultimately determine community‐level responses – are lacking. Here, we analyse species‐specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree‐ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size‐class isolation) growth‐trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8–10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large‐scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO₂ would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change.     

River connectivity and climate behind the long‐term evolution of tropical American floodplain lakes

This study presents the long‐term evolution of two floodplains lakes (San Juana and Barbacoas) of the Magdalena River in Colombia with varying degree of connectivity to the River and with different responses to climate events (i.e., extreme floods and droughts). Historical limnological changes were identified through a multiproxy‐based reconstruction including diatoms, sedimentation, and sediment geochemistry, while historical climatic changes were derived from the application of the Standardised Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index. The main gradients in climatic and limnological change were assessed via multivariate analysis and generalized additive models. The reconstruction of the more isolated San Juana Lake spanned the last c. 500 years. Between c. 1,620 and 1,750 CE, riverine‐flooded conditions prevailed as indicated by high detrital input, reductive conditions, and dominance of planktonic diatoms. Since the early 1800s, the riverine meander became disconnected, conveying into a marsh‐like environment rich in aerophil diatoms and organic matter. The current lake was then formed around the mid‐1960s with a diverse lake diatom flora including benthic and planktonic diatoms, and more oxygenated waters under a gradual increase in sedimentation and nutrients. The reconstruction for Barbacoas Lake, a waterbody directly connected to the Magdalena River, spanned the last 60 years and showed alternating riverine–wetland–lake conditions in response to varying ENSO conditions. Wet periods were dominated by planktonic and benthic diatoms, while aerophil diatom species prevailed during dry periods; during the two intense ENSO periods of 1987 and 1992, the lake almost desiccated and sedimentation rates spiked. A gradual increase in sedimentation rates post‐2000 suggests that other factors rather than climate are also influencing sediment deposition in the lake. We propose that hydrological connectivity to the Magdalena River is a main factor controlling lake long‐term responses to human pressures, where highly connected lakes respond more acutely to ENSO events while isolated lakes are more sensitive to local land‐use changes.     

Disentangling the long‐term effects of disturbance on soil biogeochemistry in a wet tropical forest ecosystem

Climate change is increasing the intensity of severe tropical storms and cyclones (also referred to as hurricanes or typhoons), with major implications for tropical forest structure and function. These changes in disturbance regime are likely to play an important role in regulating ecosystem carbon (C) and nutrient dynamics in tropical and subtropical forests. Canopy opening and debris deposition resulting from severe storms have complex and interacting effects on ecosystem biogeochemistry. Disentangling these complex effects will be critical to better understand the long‐term implications of climate change on ecosystem C and nutrient dynamics. In this study, we used a well‐replicated, long‐term (10 years) canopy and debris manipulation experiment in a wet tropical forest to determine the separate and combined effects of canopy opening and debris deposition on soil C and nutrients throughout the soil profile (1 m). Debris deposition alone resulted in higher soil C and N concentrations, both at the surface (0–10 cm) and at depth (50–80 cm). Concentrations of NaOH‐organic P also increased significantly in the debris deposition only treatment (20–90 cm depth), as did NaOH‐total P (20–50 cm depth). Canopy opening, both with and without debris deposition, significantly increased NaOH‐inorganic P concentrations from 70 to 90 cm depth. Soil iron concentrations were a strong predictor of both C and P patterns throughout the soil profile. Our results demonstrate that both surface‐ and subsoils have the potential to significantly increase C and nutrient storage a decade after the sudden deposition of disturbance‐related organic debris. Our results also show that these effects may be partially offset by rapid decomposition and decreases in litterfall associated with canopy opening. The significant effects of debris deposition on soil C and nutrient concentrations at depth (>50 cm), suggest that deep soils are more dynamic than previously believed, and can serve as sinks of C and nutrients derived from disturbance‐induced pulses of organic matter inputs.     

Long‐term nitrogen addition modifies microbial composition and functions for slow carbon cycling and increased sequestration in tropical forest soil

Nitrogen (N) deposition is a component of global change that has considerable impact on belowground carbon (C) dynamics. Plant growth stimulation and alterations of fungal community composition and functions are the main mechanisms driving soil C gains following N deposition in N‐limited temperate forests. In N‐rich tropical forests, however, N deposition generally has minor effects on plant growth; consequently, C storage in soil may strongly depend on the microbial processes that drive litter and soil organic matter decomposition. Here, we investigated how microbial functions in old‐growth tropical forest soil responded to 13 years of N addition at four rates: 0 (Control), 50 (Low‐N), 100 (Medium‐N), and 150 (High‐N) kg N ha^?1 year^?1. Soil organic carbon (SOC) content increased under High‐N, corresponding to a 33% decrease in CO₂ efflux, and reductions in relative abundances of bacteria as well as genes responsible for cellulose and chitin degradation. A 113% increase in N₂O emission was positively correlated with soil acidification and an increase in the relative abundances of denitrification genes (narG and norB). Soil acidification induced by N addition decreased available P concentrations, and was associated with reductions in the relative abundance of phytase. The decreased relative abundance of bacteria and key functional gene groups for C degradation were related to slower SOC decomposition, indicating the key mechanisms driving SOC accumulation in the tropical forest soil subjected to High‐N addition. However, changes in microbial functional groups associated with N and P cycling led to coincidentally large increases in N₂O emissions, and exacerbated soil P deficiency. These two factors partially offset the perceived beneficial effects of N addition on SOC storage in tropical forest soils. These findings suggest a potential to incorporate microbial community and functions into Earth system models considering their effects on greenhouse gas emission, biogeochemical processes, and biodiversity of tropical ecosystems.     

Relative importance of long‐term changes in climate and land‐use on the phenology and abundance of legume crop specialist and generalist aphids

Abstract Insect populations are prone to respond to global changes through shifts in phenology, distribution and abundance. However, global changes cover several factors such as climate and land-use, the relative importance of these being largely unknown. Here, we aim at disentangling the effects of climate, land-use, and geographical drivers on aphid abundance and phenology in France, at a regional scale and over the last 40 years. We used aerial data obtained from suction traps between 1978 and 2015 on five aphid species varying in their degree of specialization to legumes, along with climate, legume crop area and geographical data. Effects of environmental and geographical variables on aphid annual abundance and spring migration dates were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We found that within the last four decades, aphids have advanced their spring migration by a month, mostly due to the increase in temperature early in the year, and their abundance decreased by half on average, presumably in response to a combination of factors. The influence of legume crop area decreased with the degree of specialization of the aphid species to such crops. The effect of geographical variation was high even when controlling for environmental variables, suggesting that many other spatially structured processes act on aphid population characteristics. Multifactorial analyses helped to partition the effects of different global change drivers. Climate and land-use changes have strong effects on aphid populations, with important implications for future agriculture. Additionally, trait-based response variation could have major consequences at the community scale.     

Modeling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850–2015)

The development of appropriate tools to quantify long‐term carbon (C) budgets following forest transitions, that is, shifts from deforestation to afforestation, and to identify their drivers are key issues for forging sustainable land‐based climate‐change mitigation strategies. Here, we develop a new modeling approach, CRAFT (CaRbon Accumulation in ForesTs) based on widely available input data to study the C dynamics in French forests at the regional scale from 1850 to 2015. The model is composed of two interconnected modules which integrate biomass stocks and flows (Module 1) with litter and soil organic C (Module 2) and build upon previously established coupled climate‐vegetation models. Our model allows to develop a comprehensive understanding of forest C dynamics by systematically depicting the integrated impact of environmental changes and land use. Model outputs were compared to empirical data of C stocks in forest biomass and soils, available for recent decades from inventories, and to a long‐term simulation using a bookkeeping model. The CRAFT model reliably simulates the C dynamics during France's forest transition and reproduces C‐fluxes and stocks reported in the forest and soil inventories, in contrast to a widely used bookkeeping model which strictly only depicts C‐fluxes due to wood extraction. Model results show that like in several other industrialized countries, a sharp increase in forest biomass and SOC stocks resulted from forest area expansion and, especially after 1960, from tree growth resulting in vegetation thickening (on average 7.8 Mt C/year over the whole period). The difference between the bookkeeping model, 0.3 Mt C/year in 1850 and 21 Mt C/year in 2015, can be attributed to environmental and land management changes. The CRAFT model opens new grounds for better quantifying long‐term forest C dynamics and investigating the relative effects of land use, land management, and environmental change.     

Extensive local‐scale gene flow and long‐term population stability in the intertidal mollusc Katharina tunicata (Mollusca: Polyplacophora)

The dispersal capabilities of intertidal organisms may represent a key factor to their survival in the face of global warming, as species that cannot adapt to the various effects of climate change will have to migrate to track suitable habitat. Although species with pelagic larval phases might be expected to have a greater capacity for dispersal than those with benthic larvae, interspecies comparisons have shown that this is not always the case. Consequently, population genetic approaches are being increasingly used to gain insights into dispersal through studying patterns of gene flow. In the present study, we used nuclear single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing to elucidate fine‐scale patterns of genetic variation between populations of the Black Katy Chiton, Katharina tunicata, separated by 15–150 km in south‐west Vancouver Island. Both the nuclear and mitochondrial data sets revealed no genetic differentiation between the populations studied, and an isolation‐with‐migration analysis indicated extensive local‐scale gene flow, suggesting an absence of barriers to dispersal. Population demographic analysis also revealed long‐term population stability through previous periods of climate change associated with the Pleistocene glaciations. Together, the findings of the present study suggest that this high potential for dispersal may allow K. tunicata to respond to current global warming by tracking suitable habitat, consistent with its long‐term demographic stability through previous changes in the Earth's climate. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106 , 589–597.     

Trade‐offs between carbon stocks and timber recovery in tropical forests are mediated by logging intensity

Forest degradation accounts for ~70% of total carbon losses from tropical forests. Substantial emissions are from selective logging, a land‐use activity that decreases forest carbon density. To maintain carbon values in selectively logged forests, climate change mitigation policies and government agencies promote the adoption of reduced‐impact logging (RIL) practices. However, whether RIL will maintain both carbon and timber values in managed tropical forests over time remains uncertain. In this study, we quantify the recovery of timber stocks and aboveground carbon at an experimental site where forests were subjected to different intensities of RIL (4, 8, and 16 trees/ha). Our census data span 20 years postlogging and 17 years after the liberation of future crop trees from competition in a tropical forest on the Guiana Shield, a globally important forest carbon reservoir. We model recovery of timber and carbon with a breakpoint regression that allowed us to capture elevated tree mortality immediately after logging. Recovery rates of timber and carbon were governed by the presence of residual trees (i.e., trees that persisted through the first harvest). The liberation treatment stimulated faster recovery of timber albeit at a carbon cost. Model results suggest a threshold logging intensity beyond which forests managed for timber and carbon derive few benefits from RIL, with recruitment and residual growth not sufficient to offset losses. Inclusion of the breakpoint at which carbon and timber gains outpaced postlogging mortality led to high predictive accuracy, including out‐of‐sample R² values >90%, and enabled inference on demographic changes postlogging. Our modeling framework is broadly applicable to studies that aim to quantify impacts of logging on forest recovery. Overall, we demonstrate that initial mortality drives variation in recovery rates, that the second harvest depends on old growth wood, and that timber intensification lowers carbon stocks.     

Japan's nationwide long‐term monitoring survey of seaweed communities known as the “Monitoring Sites 1000”: Ten‐year overview and future perspectives

“Monitoring Sites 1000” – Japan's long‐term monitoring survey was established in 2003, based on the Japanese Government policy for the conservation of biodiversity. Ecological surveys have been conducted on various types of ecosystems at approximately 1000 sites in Japan for 15 years now and are planned to be carried out for 100 years. Since 2008, seaweed communities had been monitored at six sites, featuring the kelp (e.g. Saccharina and Ecklonia; Laminariales) and Sargassum (Fucales) communities in the subarctic and temperate regions of Japan. Annual surveys were carried out during the season when these canopy‐forming seaweeds are most abundant. A non‐destructive quadrat sampling method, with permanent quadrats placed along transects perpendicular to the shoreline, was used to determine species composition, coverage, and vertical distribution of seaweeds at these sites; while destructive sampling was done every 5 years to determine biomass. The occurrence of canopy‐forming species Saccharina japonica (var. japonica) and Ecklonia cava have appeared to be stable at the Muroran (southwestern part of Hokkaido Island) and Shimoda (Pacific coast of middle Honshu Island) sites, respectively; whereas the coverage of Ecklonia radicosa (= Eckloniopsis radicosa) at the Satsuma‐Nagashima site in southern part of Kyushu Island was highly variable until its sudden disappearance from the habitat in 2016. Thalli of E. radicosa lost most of their blades through browsing by herbivorous fish, and thus, this may be one of the causes of the decline. A shift in the community structure related to environmental changes had also been observed at some other sites. Pre‐ and post‐disaster data revealed the impact of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disasters, including a shift in the vertical distribution of Ecklonia bicyclis (= Eisenia bicyclis) to shallower depths at the Shizugawa site in the Pacific coast of northern Honshu Island, due to seafloor subsidence.     

Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long‐term incubation data

High‐latitude ecosystems store approximately 1700 Pg of soil carbon (C), which is twice as much C as is currently contained in the atmosphere. Permafrost thaw and subsequent microbial decomposition of permafrost organic matter could add large amounts of C to the atmosphere, thereby influencing the global C cycle. The rates at which C is being released from the permafrost zone at different soil depths and across different physiographic regions are poorly understood but crucial in understanding future changes in permafrost C storage with climate change. We assessed the inherent decomposability of C from the permafrost zone by assembling a database of long‐term (>1 year) aerobic soil incubations from 121 individual samples from 23 high‐latitude ecosystems located across the northern circumpolar permafrost zone. Using a three‐pool (i.e., fast, slow and passive) decomposition model, we estimated pool sizes for C fractions with different turnover times and their inherent decomposition rates using a reference temperature of 5 °C. Fast cycling C accounted for less than 5% of all C in both organic and mineral soils whereas the pool size of slow cycling C increased with C : N. Turnover time at 5 °C of fast cycling C typically was below 1 year, between 5 and 15 years for slow turning over C, and more than 500 years for passive C. We project that between 20 and 90% of the organic C could potentially be mineralized to CO₂ within 50 incubation years at a constant temperature of 5 °C, with vulnerability to loss increasing in soils with higher C : N. These results demonstrate the variation in the vulnerability of C stored in permafrost soils based on inherent differences in organic matter decomposability, and point toward C : N as an index of decomposability that has the potential to be used to scale permafrost C loss across landscapes.     

Phenological responses of Icelandic subarctic grasslands to short‐term and long‐term natural soil warming

The phenology of vegetation, particularly the length of the growing season (LOS; i.e., the period from greenup to senescence), is highly sensitive to climate change, which could imply potent feedbacks to the climate system, for example, by altering the ecosystem carbon (C) balance. In recent decades, the largest extensions of LOS have been reported at high northern latitudes, but further warming‐induced LOS extensions may be constrained by too short photoperiod or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Here, we studied subarctic grasslands, which cover a vast area and contain large C stocks, but for which LOS changes under further warming are highly uncertain. We measured LOS extensions of Icelandic subarctic grasslands along natural geothermal soil warming gradients of different age (short term, where the measurements started after 5 years of warming and long term, i.e., warmed since ≥50 years) using ground‐level measurements of normalized difference vegetation index. We found that LOS linearly extended with on average 2.1 days per °C soil warming up to the highest soil warming levels (ca. +10°C) and that LOS had the potential to extend at least 1 month. This indicates that the warming impact on LOS in these subarctic grasslands will likely not saturate in the near future. A similar response to short‐ and long‐term warming indicated a strong physiological control of the phenological response of the subarctic grasslands to warming and suggested that genetic adaptations and community changes were likely of minor importance. We conclude that the warming‐driven extension of the LOSs of these subarctic grasslands did not saturate up to +10°C warming, and hence that growing seasons of high‐latitude grasslands are likely to continue lengthening with future warming (unless genetic adaptations or species shifts do occur). This persistence of the warming‐induced extension of LOS has important implications for the C‐sink potential of subarctic grasslands under climate change.     

Functional traits determine tree growth and ecosystem productivity of a tropical montane forest: Insights from a long‐term nutrient manipulation experiment

Trait‐response effects are critical to forecast community structure and biomass production in highly diverse tropical forests. Ecological theory and few observation studies indicate that trees with acquisitive functional traits would respond more strongly to higher resource availability than those with conservative traits. We assessed how long‐term tree growth in experimental nutrient addition plots (N, P, and N + P) varied as a function of morphological traits, tree size, and species identity. We also evaluated how trait‐based responses affected stand scale biomass production considering the community structure. We found that tree growth depended on interactions between functional traits and the type or combination of nutrients added. Common species with acquisitive functional traits responded more strongly to nutrient addition, mainly to N + P. Phosphorous enhanced the growth rates of species with acquisitive and conservative traits, had mostly positive effects on common species and neutral or negative effects in rare species. Moreover, trees receiving N + P grew faster irrespective of their initial size relative to trees in control or to trees in other treatment plots. Finally, species responses were highly idiosyncratic suggesting that community processes including competition and niche dimensionality may be altered under increased resource availability. We found no statistically significant effects of nutrient additions on aboveground biomass productivity because acquisitive species had a limited potential to increase their biomass, possibly due to their generally lower wood density. In contrast, P addition increased the growth rates of species characterized by more conservative resource strategies (with higher wood density) that were poorly represented in the plant community. We provide the first long‐term experimental evidence that trait‐based responses, community structure, and community processes modulate the effects of increased nutrient availability on biomass productivity in a tropical forest.     

Detecting long‐term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods

Tree‐ring analysis is often used to assess long‐term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth‐trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long‐term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree‐ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree‐ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results – a growth decline over time – but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth‐trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (?6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (?2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no‐trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth‐trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend SCI and RCS, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long‐term growth trends.     

Carbon stocks in above‐ground biomass of monoculture plantations,mixed species plantations and environmental restoration plantings in north‐east Australia

Summary The emergence of carbon markets has provided a potential source of funding for reforestation projects. However, there is concern amongst ecologists that these markets will promote the establishment of monoculture plantations rather than more diverse restoration plantings, on the assumption that fast‐growing monocultures are likely to store more carbon than restoration plantings. We examined the validity of this assumption for three predominantly rainforest plantation types established in the moist tropical uplands of north‐east Australia: monoculture plantations of native rainforest conifers (n = 5, mean age 13 years); mixed species plantations of rainforest cabinet timber species, rainforest conifers and eucalypts (n = 5, mean age 13 years); and, environmental restoration plantings comprised mostly of a diverse range of rainforest trees (n = 10, mean age 14 years). We found that restoration plantings stored significantly more carbon in above‐ground biomass than monoculture plantations of native conifers (on average, 106 t vs 62 t carbon per ha); and tended to store more carbon than mixed species timber plantations which were intermediate in value (86 t carbon per ha). Carbon stocks were higher in restoration plantings than in monoculture and mixed species plantations for three reasons. First, and most importantly, restoration plantings were more densely stocked than monoculture and mixed species plantations. Second, there were more large diameter trees in restoration plantings than monoculture plantations. Third, the trees used in restoration plantings had a higher average wood density than the conifers used in monoculture plantations. While, on average, wood density was higher in mixed species plantations than restoration plantings, the much higher stocking rate of restoration plantings meant they stored more carbon than mixed species plantations. We conclude that restoration plantings in the moist tropics of north‐east Australia can accumulate relatively high amounts of carbon within two decades of establishment. Comparison with reference rainforest sites suggests that restoration plantings could maintain their high stocking rates (and therefore high biomass) as they develop in future decades. However, because restoration plantings are currently much more expensive to establish than monoculture plantations, restoration plantings are unlikely to be favoured by carbon markets. Novel reforestation techniques and designs are required if restoration plantings are to both provide habitat for rainforest biota and store carbon in biomass at a cost comparable to monoculture plantations.     

Long‐term monitoring of tropical alpine habitat change,Andean anurans,and chytrid fungus in the Cordillera Vilcanota,Peru: Results from a decade of study

The Cordillera Vilcanota in southern Peru is the second largest glacierized range in the tropics and home to one of the largest high‐alpine lakes, Sibinacocha (4,860 m). Here, Telmatobius marmoratus (marbled water frog), Rhinella spinulosa (Andean toad), and Pleurodema marmoratum (marbled four‐eyed frog) have expanded their range vertically within the past century to inhabit newly formed ponds created by ongoing deglaciation. These anuran populations, geographically among the highest (5,200–5,400 m) recorded globally, are being impacted by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and the disease it causes, chytridiomycosis. In this study, we report results from over a decade of monitoring these three anuran species, their habitat, and Bd infection status. Our observations reveal dynamic changes in habitat including ongoing rapid deglaciation (18.4 m/year widening of a corridor between retreating glaciers from 2005 to 2015), new pond formation, changes in vegetation in amphibian habitat, and widespread occurrence of Bd in amphibians in seven sites. Three of these sites have tested positive for Bd over a 9‐ to 12‐year period. In addition, we observed a widespread reduction in T. marmoratus encounters in the Vilcanota in 2008, 2009, and 2012, while encounters increased in 2013 and 2015. Despite the rapid and dynamic changes in habitat under a warming climate, continued presence of Bd in the environment for over a decade, and a reduction in one of three anuran species, we document that these anurans continue to breed and survive in this high Andean environment. High variability in anuran encounters across sites and plasticity in these populations across habitats, sites, and years are all factors that could favor repopulation postdecline. Preserving the connectivity of wetlands in the Cordillera Vilcanota is therefore essential in ensuring that anurans continue to breed and adapt as climate change continues to reshape the environment.