A tree-based scan statistic for database disease surveillance

Many databases exist with which it is possible to study the relationship between health events and various potential risk factors. Among these databases, some have variables that naturally form a hierarchical tree structure, such as pharmaceutical drugs and occupations. It is of great interest to use such databases for surveillance purposes in order to detect unsuspected relationships to disease risk. We propose a tree-based scan statistic, by which the surveillance can be conducted with a minimum of prior assumptions about the group of occupations/drugs that increase risk, and which adjusts for the multiple testing inherent in the many potential combinations. The method is illustrated using data from the National Center for Health Statistics Multiple Cause of Death Database, looking at the relationship between occupation and death from silicosis.     

A spatial scan statistic for multiple clusters

Spatial scan statistics are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. While there are multiple clusters coexisting in the study area, they become difficult to detect because of clusters’ shadowing effect to each other. The recently proposed sequential method showed its better power for detecting the second weaker cluster, but did not improve the ability of detecting the first stronger cluster which is more important than the second one. We propose a new extension of the spatial scan statistic which could be used to detect multiple clusters. Through constructing two or more clusters in the alternative hypothesis, our proposed method accounts for other coexisting clusters in the detecting and evaluating process. The performance of the proposed method is compared to the sequential method through an intensive simulation study, in which our proposed method shows better power in terms of both rejecting the null hypothesis and accurately detecting the coexisting clusters. In the real study of hand-foot-mouth disease data in Pingdu city, a true cluster town is successfully detected by our proposed method, which cannot be evaluated to be statistically significant by the standard method due to another cluster’s shadowing effect.     

A spatial scan statistic for survival data

Spatial scan statistics with Bernoulli and Poisson models are commonly used for geographical disease surveillance and cluster detection. These models, suitable for count data, were not designed for data with continuous outcomes. We propose a spatial scan statistic based on an exponential model to handle either uncensored or censored continuous survival data. The power and sensitivity of the developed model are investigated through intensive simulations. The method performs well for different survival distribution functions including the exponential, gamma, and log-normal distributions. We also present a method to adjust the analysis for covariates. The cluster detection method is illustrated using survival data for men diagnosed with prostate cancer in Connecticut from 1984 to 1995.     

A hypothesis-free multiple scan statistic with variable window

In this article we propose a new technique for identifying clusters in temporal point processes. This relies on the comparision between all the m -order spacings and it is totally independent of any alternative hypothesis. A recursive procedure is introduced and allows to identify multiple clusters independently. This new scan statistic seems to be more efficient than the classical scan statistic for detecting and recovering cluster alternatives. These results have applications in epidemiological studies of rare diseases.     

Structuring an event ontology for disease outbreak detection

BACKGROUND: This paper describes the design of an event ontology being developed for application in the machine understanding of infectious disease-related events reported in natural language text. This event ontology is designed to support timely detection of disease outbreaks and rapid judgment of their alerting status by 1) bridging a gap between layman's language used in disease outbreak reports and public health experts' deep knowledge, and 2) making multi-lingual information available. CONSTRUCTION AND CONTENT: This event ontology integrates a model of experts' knowledge for disease surveillance, and at the same time sets of linguistic expressions which denote disease-related events, and formal definitions of events. In this ontology, rather general event classes, which are suitable for application to language-oriented tasks such as recognition of event expressions, are placed on the upper-level, and more specific events of the experts' interest are in the lower level. Each class is related to other classes which represent participants of events, and linked with multi-lingual synonym sets and axioms. CONCLUSIONS: We consider that the design of the event ontology and the methodology introduced in this paper are applicable to other domains which require integration of natural language information and machine support for experts to assess them. The first version of the ontology, with about 40 concepts, will be available in March 2008.     

A model-based scan statistic for identifying extreme chromosomal regions of gene expression in human tumors

MOTIVATION: The analysis of gene expression data in its chromosomal context has been a recent development in cancer research. However, currently available methods fail to account for variation in the distance between genes, gene density and genomic features (e.g. GC content) in identifying increased or decreased chromosomal regions of gene expression. RESULTS: We have developed a model-based scan statistic that accounts for these aspects of the complex landscape of the human genome in the identification of extreme chromosomal regions of gene expression. This method may be applied to gene expression data regardless of the microarray platform used to generate it. To demonstrate the accuracy and utility of this method, we applied it to a breast cancer gene expression dataset and tested its ability to predict regions containing medium-to-high level DNA amplification (DNA ratio values >2). A classifier was developed from the scan statistic results that had a 10-fold cross-validated classification rate of 93% and a positive predictive value of 88%. This result strongly suggests that the model-based scan statistic and the expression characteristics of an increased chromosomal region of gene expression can be used to accurately predict chromosomal regions containing amplified genes. AVAILABILITY: Functions in the R-language are available from the author upon request. CONTACT: fcouples@umich.edu.     

Local multiplicity adjustment for the spatial scan statistic using the Gumbel distribution

The spatial scan statistic is an important and widely used tool for cluster detection. It is based on the simultaneous evaluation of the statistical significance of the maximum likelihood ratio test statistic over a large collection of potential clusters. In most cluster detection problems, there is variation in the extent of local multiplicity across the study region. For example, using a fixed maximum geographic radius for clusters, urban areas typically have many overlapping potential clusters, whereas rural areas have relatively few. The spatial scan statistic does not account for local multiplicity variation. We describe a previously proposed local multiplicity adjustment based on a nested Bonferroni correction and propose a novel adjustment based on a Gumbel distribution approximation to the distribution of a local scan statistic. We compare the performance of all three statistics in terms of power and a novel unbiased cluster detection criterion. These methods are then applied to the well-known New York leukemia dataset and a Wisconsin breast cancer incidence dataset.     

A space-time conditional intensity model for invasive meningococcal disease occurrence

A novel point process model continuous in space-time is proposed for quantifying the transmission dynamics of the two most common meningococcal antigenic sequence types observed in Germany 2002-2008. Modeling is based on the conditional intensity function (CIF), which is described by a superposition of additive and multiplicative components. As an epidemiological interesting finding, spread behavior was shown to depend on type in addition to age: basic reproduction numbers were 0.25 (95% CI 0.19-0.34) and 0.11 (95% CI 0.07-0.17) for types B:P1.7-2,4:F1-5 and C:P1.5,2:F3-3, respectively. Altogether, the proposed methodology represents a comprehensive and universal regression framework for the modeling, simulation, and inference of self-exciting spatiotemporal point processes based on the CIF. Usability of the modeling in biometric practice is promoted by an implementation in the R package surveillance.     

ChromoScan: a scan statistic application for identifying chromosomal regions in genomic studies

ChromoScan is an implementation of a genome-based scan statistic that detects genomic regions, which are statistically significant for targeted measurements, such as genetic associations with disease, gene expression profiles, DNA copy number variations, as well as other genome-based measurements. A Java graphic user interface (GUI) is provided to allow users to select appropriate data transformations and thresholds for defining the significant events. AVAILABILITY: ChromoScan is freely available from http://www.epidkardia.sph.umich.edu/software/chromoscan/     

Analyzing species distributions among temporary ponds with a permutation test approach to the join-count statistic

The Bluff Springs Sand Ponds (BSSPs) are a set of closely-spaced temporary ponds of varying hydroperiod, depth and surface area. We sampled crustacean communities of 15 ponds throughout hydroperiods in 1996 to examine species distributions among ponds. Although ponds were closely spaced (within ca. 16 ha), most species were present in subsets of the 15 ponds. We then analyzed spatial patterns of 12 crustacean species for complete spatial randomness (CSR) using join-count statistics. However, the join-count was designed for large-samples (n>50), so we further analyzed (by simulation) the join-count and a variation of the join-count (Cliff & Ord, 1981) for small-scale reliability. Simulation results revealed that neither testing distribution was reliable for n<30. We then used a permutation test to analyze species distributions and concluded that some species were distributed non-randomly. Therefore, further investigations of mechanisms causing species distributions (e.g., hydroperiod, physical/chemical conditions, biotic interactions) are clearly prescribed. The permutation test should be useful for studies of species distribution patterns among other temporary waters, and can help focus studies on causal mechanisms of distributions among small numbers of temporary aquatic habitats.     

A new statistic for detecting genetic differentiation

A new statistic for detecting genetic differentiation of subpopulations is described. The statistic can be calculated when genetic data are collected on individuals sampled from two or more localities. It is assumed that haplotypic data are obtained, either in the form of DNA sequences or data on many tightly linked markers. Using a symmetric island model, and assuming an infinite-sites model of mutation, it is found that the new statistic is as powerful or more powerful than previously proposed statistics for a wide range of parameter values.     

Power of the scan statistic in detecting a changed segment in a Bernoulli sequence

Fu & Curnow (1990) derive recursive equations to find thelevel of significance and power of a likelihood ratio test fora changed segment of specified length, based on the scan statistic,the maximum number of successes within the specified length.Their method is computationally feasible for segment lengthsof 20 or less. We present and evaluate highly accurate approximationsas well as bounds for the power function of this test that arecomputationally feasible even for very large segment lengths.We also evaluate power when the duration of the increased lengthused in the test statistic does not correspond to the actuallength.     

PRESTO: Rapid calculation of order statistic distributions and multiple-testing adjusted P-values via permutation for one and two-stage genetic association studies

Background  

Large-scale genetic association studies can test hundreds of thousands of genetic markers for association with a trait. Since the genetic markers may be correlated, a Bonferroni correction is typically too stringent a correction for multiple testing. Permutation testing is a standard statistical technique for determining statistical significance when performing multiple correlated tests for genetic association. However, permutation testing for large-scale genetic association studies is computationally demanding and calls for optimized algorithms and software. PRESTO is a new software package for genetic association studies that performs fast computation of multiple-testing adjusted P-values via permutation of the trait.     

A global goodness-of-fit statistic for Cox regression models

In this paper, a global goodness-of-fit test statistic for a Cox regression model, which has an approximate chi-squared distribution when the model has been correctly specified, is proposed. Our goodness-of-fit statistic is global and has power to detect if interactions or higher order powers of covariates in the model are needed. The proposed statistic is similar to the Hosmer and Lemeshow (1980, Communications in Statistics A10, 1043-1069) goodness-of-fit statistic for binary data as well as Schoenfeld's (1980, Biometrika 67, 145-153) statistic for the Cox model. The methods are illustrated using data from a Mayo Clinic trial in primary billiary cirrhosis of the liver (Fleming and Harrington, 1991, Counting Processes and Survival Analysis), in which the outcome is the time until liver transplantation or death. The are 17 possible covariates. Two Cox proportional hazards models are fit to the data, and the proposed goodness-of-fit statistic is applied to the fitted models.