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1.
Devastating epidemics of highly contagious animal diseases such as avian influenza, classical swine fever, and foot-and-mouth disease underline the need for improved understanding of the factors promoting the spread of these pathogens. Here the authors present a spatial analysis of the between-farm transmission of a highly pathogenic H7N7 avian influenza virus that caused a large epidemic in The Netherlands in 2003. The authors developed a method to estimate key parameters determining the spread of highly transmissible animal diseases between farms based on outbreak data. The method allows for the identification of high-risk areas for propagating spread in an epidemiologically underpinned manner. A central concept is the transmission kernel, which determines the probability of pathogen transmission from infected to uninfected farms as a function of interfarm distance. The authors show how an estimate of the transmission kernel naturally provides estimates of the critical farm density and local reproduction numbers, which allows one to evaluate the effectiveness of control strategies. For avian influenza, the analyses show that there are two poultry-dense areas in The Netherlands where epidemic spread is possible, and in which local control measures are unlikely to be able to halt an unfolding epidemic. In these regions an epidemic can only be brought to an end by the depletion of susceptible farms by infection or massive culling. The analyses provide an estimate of the spatial range over which highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses spread between farms, and emphasize that control measures aimed at controlling such outbreaks need to take into account the local density of farms.  相似文献   

2.
The ability of influenza A viruses (IAVs) to cross species barriers and evade host immunity is a major public health concern. Studies on the phylodynamics of IAVs across different scales – from the individual to the population – are essential for devising effective measures to predict, prevent or contain influenza emergence. Understanding how IAVs spread and evolve during outbreaks is critical for the management of epidemics. Reconstructing the transmission network during a single outbreak by sampling viral genetic data in time and space can generate insights about these processes. Here, we obtained intra-host viral sequence data from horses infected with equine influenza virus (EIV) to reconstruct the spread of EIV during a large outbreak. To this end, we analyzed within-host viral populations from sequences covering 90% of the infected yards. By combining gene sequence analyses with epidemiological data, we inferred a plausible transmission network, in turn enabling the comparison of transmission patterns during the course of the outbreak and revealing important epidemiological features that were not apparent using either approach alone. The EIV populations displayed high levels of genetic diversity, and in many cases we observed distinct viral populations containing a dominant variant and a number of related minor variants that were transmitted between infectious horses. In addition, we found evidence of frequent mixed infections and loose transmission bottlenecks in these naturally occurring populations. These frequent mixed infections likely influence the size of epidemics.  相似文献   

3.
Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning.  相似文献   

4.
Knowledge on the transmission tree of an epidemic can provide valuable insights into disease dynamics. The transmission tree can be reconstructed by analysing either detailed epidemiological data (e.g. contact tracing) or, if sufficient genetic diversity accumulates over the course of the epidemic, genetic data of the pathogen. We present a likelihood-based framework to integrate these two data types, estimating probabilities of infection by taking weighted averages over the set of possible transmission trees. We test the approach by applying it to temporal, geographical and genetic data on the 241 poultry farms infected in an epidemic of avian influenza A (H7N7) in The Netherlands in 2003. We show that the combined approach estimates the transmission tree with higher correctness and resolution than analyses based on genetic or epidemiological data alone. Furthermore, the estimated tree reveals the relative infectiousness of farms of different types and sizes.  相似文献   

5.
The transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus to Southeast Asian countries triggered the first major outbreak and transmission wave in late 2003, accelerating the pandemic threat to the world. Due to the lack of influenza surveillance prior to these outbreaks, the genetic diversity and the transmission pathways of H5N1 viruses from this period remain undefined. To determine the possible source of the wave 1 H5N1 viruses, we recently conducted further sequencing and analysis of samples collected in live-poultry markets from Guangdong, Hunan, and Yunnan in southern China from 2001 to 2004. Phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes of 73 H5N1 isolates from this period revealed a greater genetic diversity in southern China than previously reported. Moreover, results show that eight viruses isolated from Yunnan in 2002 and 2003 were most closely related to the clade 1 virus sublineage from Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia, while two viruses from Hunan in 2002 and 2003 were most closely related to viruses from Indonesia (clade 2.1). Further phylogenetic analyses of the six internal genes showed that all 10 of those viruses maintained similar phylogenetic relationships as the surface genes. The 10 progenitor viruses were genotype Z and shared high similarity (>/=99%) with their corresponding descendant viruses in most gene segments. These results suggest a direct transmission link for H5N1 viruses between Yunnan and Vietnam and also between Hunan and Indonesia during 2002 and 2003. Poultry trade may be responsible for virus introduction to Vietnam, while the transmission route from Hunan to Indonesia remains unclear.  相似文献   

6.
禽流感与猪流感病毒:跨越物种传播的新认识   总被引:5,自引:1,他引:4  
今年在墨西哥暴发的流感疫情来源于一种新的流感病毒:甲型H1N1病毒.这种病毒包括人源,禽源和猪源等甲型流感病毒基因片段,为混合毒株.比较了禽、猪和人的流感病毒在其天然宿主中的致病机理,主要目的是评估猪和禽的流感病毒成为人兽共患病的可能性,同时还评估猪在禽流感病毒传入人的过程中可能起到的作用.禽流感和猪流感作为人畜共患疾病,在流感病毒从动物到人的传播过程中起到关键的作用.猪作为流感病毒的中间宿主,具有混合器作用,人、猪、禽流感病毒可在其体内进行基因重排产生新病毒,并可能跨越种间屏障感染人类.但是流感病毒本身的跨越种间障碍传播不足以引起人流感的大暴发,动物流感病毒必须经过显著的遗传变异后才能使其在人群中长期存在.  相似文献   

7.
Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have been pivotal to the origination of human pandemic strains. Despite their scientific and public health significance, however, there remains much to be understood about the ecology and evolution of AIVs in wild birds, where major pools of genetic diversity are generated and maintained. Here, we present comparative phylodynamic analyses of human and AIVs in North America, demonstrating (i) significantly higher standing genetic diversity and (ii) phylogenetic trees with a weaker signature of immune escape in AIVs than in human viruses. To explain these differences, we performed statistical analyses to quantify the relative contribution of several potential explanations. We found that HA genetic diversity in avian viruses is determined by a combination of factors, predominantly subtype-specific differences in host immune selective pressure and the ecology of transmission (in particular, the durability of subtypes in aquatic environments). Extending this analysis using a computational model demonstrated that virus durability may lead to long-term, indirect chains of transmission that, when coupled with a short host lifespan, can generate and maintain the observed high levels of genetic diversity. Further evidence in support of this novel finding was found by demonstrating an association between subtype-specific environmental durability and predicted phylogenetic signatures: genetic diversity, variation in phylogenetic tree branch lengths, and tree height. The conclusion that environmental transmission plays an important role in the evolutionary biology of avian influenza viruses—a manifestation of the “storage effect”—highlights the potentially unpredictable impact of wildlife reservoirs for future human pandemics and the need for improved understanding of the natural ecology of these viruses.  相似文献   

8.
Estimates of the per-contact probability of transmission between farms of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus of H7N7 subtype during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands are important for the design of better control and biosecurity strategies. We used standardized data collected during the epidemic and a model to extract data for untraced contacts based on the daily number of infectious farms within a given distance of a susceptible farm. With these data, we used a maximum likelihood estimation approach to estimate the transmission probabilities by the individual contact types, both traced and untraced. The estimated conditional probabilities, conditional on the contact originating from an infectious farm, of virus transmission were: 0.000057 per infectious farm within 1 km per day, 0.000413 per infectious farm between 1 and 3 km per day, 0.0000895 per infectious farm between 3 and 10 km per day, 0.0011 per crisis organisation contact, 0.0414 per feed delivery contact, 0.308 per egg transport contact, 0.133 per other-professional contact and, 0.246 per rendering contact. We validate these outcomes against literature data on virus genetic sequences for outbreak farms. These estimates can be used to inform further studies on the role that improved biosecurity between contacts and/or contact frequency reduction can play in eliminating between-farm spread of the virus during future epidemics. The findings also highlight the need to; 1) understand the routes underlying the infections without traced contacts and, 2) to review whether the contact-tracing protocol is exhaustive in relation to all the farm's day-to-day activities and practices.  相似文献   

9.
Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.  相似文献   

10.
Since Feb, 2013, more than 100 human beings had been infected with novel H7N9 avian influenza virus. As of May 2013, several H7N9 viruses had been found in retail live bird markets (LBMs) in Guangdong province of southern China where several human cases were confirmed later. However, the real avian influenza virus infection status especially H7N9 in Guangzhou remains unclear. Therefore, a cross-sectional study of avian influenza in commercial poultry farms, the wholesale LBM and retail LBMs in one district of Guangzhou was conducted from October to November, 2013. A total of 1505 cloacal and environmental samples from 52 commercial poultry farms, 1 wholesale LBM and 18 retail LBMs were collected and detected using real-time RT-PCR for type A, H7, H7N9 and H9 subtype avian influenza virus, respectively. Of all the flocks randomly sampled, 6 farms, 12 vendors of the wholesale LBM and 18 retail LBMs were type A avian influenza virus positive with 0, 3 and 11 positive for H9, respectively. The pooled prevalence and individual prevalence of type A avian influenza virus were 33.9% and 7.9% which for H9 subtype was 7.6% and 1.6%, respectively. None was H7 and H7N9 subtype virus positive. Different prevalence and prevalence ratio were found in different poultry species with partridges having the highest prevalence for both type A and H9 subtype avian influenza virus. Our results suggest that LBM may have a higher risk for sustaining and transmission of avian influenza virus than commercial poultry farms. The present study also indicates that different species may play different roles in the evolution and transmission of avian influenza virus. Therefore, risk-based surveillance and management measures should be conducted in future in this area.  相似文献   

11.
Shi W  Lei F  Zhu C  Sievers F  Higgins DG 《PloS one》2010,5(12):e14454

Background

More and more nucleotide sequences of type A influenza virus are available in public databases. Although these sequences have been the focus of many molecular epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses, most studies only deal with a few representative sequences. In this paper, we present a complete analysis of all Haemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) gene sequences available to allow large scale analyses of the evolution and epidemiology of type A influenza.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This paper describes an analysis and complete classification of all HA and NA gene sequences available in public databases using multivariate and phylogenetic methods.

Conclusions/Significance

We analyzed 18975 HA sequences and divided them into 280 subgroups according to multivariate and phylogenetic analyses. Similarly, we divided 11362 NA sequences into 202 subgroups. Compared to previous analyses, this work is more detailed and comprehensive, especially for the bigger datasets. Therefore, it can be used to show the full and complex phylogenetic diversity and provides a framework for studying the molecular evolution and epidemiology of type A influenza virus. For more than 85% of type A influenza HA and NA sequences into GenBank, they are categorized in one unambiguous and unique group. Therefore, our results are a kind of genetic and phylogenetic annotation for influenza HA and NA sequences. In addition, sequences of swine influenza viruses come from 56 HA and 45 NA subgroups. Most of these subgroups also include viruses from other hosts indicating cross species transmission of the viruses between pigs and other hosts. Furthermore, the phylogenetic diversity of swine influenza viruses from Eurasia is greater than that of North American strains and both of them are becoming more diverse. Apart from viruses from human, pigs, birds and horses, viruses from other species show very low phylogenetic diversity. This might indicate that viruses have not become established in these species. Based on current evidence, there is no simple pattern of inter-hemisphere transmission of avian influenza viruses and it appears to happen sporadically. However, for H6 subtype avian influenza viruses, such transmissions might have happened very frequently and multiple and bidirectional transmission events might exist.  相似文献   

12.
Evolutionary dynamics and emergence of panzootic H5N1 influenza viruses   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus lineage has undergone extensive genetic reassortment with viruses from different sources to produce numerous H5N1 genotypes, and also developed into multiple genetically distinct sublineages in China. From there, the virus has spread to over 60 countries. The ecological success of this virus in diverse species of both poultry and wild birds with frequent introduction to humans suggests that it is a likely source of the next human pandemic. Therefore, the evolutionary and ecological characteristics of its emergence from wild birds into poultry are of considerable interest. Here, we apply the latest analytical techniques to infer the early evolutionary dynamics of H5N1 virus in the population from which it emerged (wild birds and domestic poultry). By estimating the time of most recent common ancestors of each gene segment, we show that the H5N1 prototype virus was likely introduced from wild birds into poultry as a non-reassortant low pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus and was not generated by reassortment in poultry. In contrast, more recent H5N1 genotypes were generated locally in aquatic poultry after the prototype virus (A/goose/Guangdong/1/96) introduction occurred, i.e., they were not a result of additional emergence from wild birds. We show that the H5N1 virus was introduced into Indonesia and Vietnam 3-6 months prior to detection of the first outbreaks in those countries. Population dynamics analyses revealed a rapid increase in the genetic diversity of A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 lineage viruses from mid-1999 to early 2000. Our results suggest that the transmission of reassortant viruses through the mixed poultry population in farms and markets in China has selected HPAI H5N1 viruses that are well adapted to multiple hosts and reduced the interspecies transmission barrier of those viruses.  相似文献   

13.
In the past decade, rapid increases in the availability of high-resolution molecular and epidemiological data, combined with developments in statistical and computational methods to simulate and infer migration patterns, have provided key insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza A viruses in humans. In this review, we contrast findings from epidemiological and molecular studies of influenza virus transmission at different spatial scales. We show that findings are broadly consistent in large-scale studies of inter-regional or inter-hemispheric spread in temperate regions, revealing intense epidemics associated with multiple viral introductions, followed by deep troughs driven by seasonal bottlenecks. However, aspects of the global transmission dynamics of influenza viruses are still debated, especially with respect to the existence of tropical source populations experiencing high levels of genetic diversity and the extent of prolonged viral persistence between epidemics. At the scale of a country or community, epidemiological studies have revealed spatially structured diffusion patterns in seasonal and pandemic outbreaks, which were not identified in molecular studies. We discuss the role of sampling issues in generating these conflicting results, and suggest strategies for future research that may help to fully integrate the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of influenza virus over space and time.  相似文献   

14.
Although increasing data have become available that link human adaptation with specific molecular changes in nonhuman influenza viruses, the molecular changes of these viruses during a large highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) outbreak in poultry along with avian-to-human transmission have never been documented. By comprehensive virologic analysis of combined veterinary and human samples obtained during a large HPAI A (H7N7) outbreak in the Netherlands in 2003, we mapped the acquisition of human adaptation markers to identify the public health risk associated with an HPAI outbreak in poultry. Full-length hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), and PB2 sequencing of A (H7N7) viruses obtained from 45 human cases showed amino acid variations at different codons in HA (n=20), NA (n=23), and PB2 (n=23). Identification of the avian sources of human virus infections based on 232 farm sequences demonstrated that for each gene about 50% of the variation was already present in poultry. Polygenic accumulation and farm-to-farm spread of known virulence and human adaptation markers in A (H7N7) virus-infected poultry occurred prior to farm-to-human transmission. These include the independent emergence of HA A143T mutants, accumulation of four NA mutations, and farm-to-farm spread of virus variants harboring mammalian host determinants D701N and S714I in PB2. This implies that HPAI viruses with pandemic potential can emerge directly from poultry. Since the public health risk of an avian influenza virus outbreak in poultry can rapidly change, we recommend virologic monitoring for human adaptation markers among poultry as well as among humans during the course of an outbreak in poultry.  相似文献   

15.
Avian influenza virus-infected poultry can release a large amount of virus-contaminated droppings that serve as sources of infection for susceptible birds. Much research so far has focused on virus spread within flocks. However, as fecal material or manure is a major constituent of airborne poultry dust, virus-contaminated particulate matter from infected flocks may be dispersed into the environment. We collected samples of suspended particulate matter, or the inhalable dust fraction, inside, upwind and downwind of buildings holding poultry infected with low-pathogenic avian influenza virus, and tested them for the presence of endotoxins and influenza virus to characterize the potential impact of airborne influenza virus transmission during outbreaks at commercial poultry farms. Influenza viruses were detected by RT-PCR in filter-rinse fluids collected up to 60 meters downwind from the barns, but virus isolation did not yield any isolates. Viral loads in the air samples were low and beyond the limit of RT-PCR quantification except for one in-barn measurement showing a virus concentration of 8.48x104 genome copies/m3. Air samples taken outside poultry barns had endotoxin concentrations of ~50 EU/m3 that declined with increasing distance from the barn. Atmospheric dispersion modeling of particulate matter, using location-specific meteorological data for the sampling days, demonstrated a positive correlation between endotoxin measurements and modeled particulate matter concentrations, with an R2 varying from 0.59 to 0.88. Our data suggest that areas at high risk for human or animal exposure to airborne influenza viruses can be modeled during an outbreak to allow directed interventions following targeted surveillance.  相似文献   

16.
In temperate regions of the world, influenza epidemics follow a highly regular seasonal pattern, in which activity peaks in midwinter. Consistently with this epidemiology, we have shown previously that the aerosol transmission of a seasonal H3N2 influenza virus is most efficient under cold, dry conditions. With the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, an exception to the standard seasonality of influenza developed: during 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere, an unusually high level of influenza virus activity over the spring and summer months was followed by a widespread epidemic which peaked in late October, approximately 2.5 months earlier than usual. Herein we show that aerosol transmission of a 2009 pandemic strain shows a dependence on relative humidity and temperature very similar to that of a seasonal H3N2 influenza virus. Our data indicate that the observed differences in the timings of outbreaks with regard to the seasons are most likely not due to intrinsic differences in transmission between the pandemic H1N1 and seasonal H3N2 influenza viruses.  相似文献   

17.
In recent years, the early detection of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in poultry has become increasingly important, given their potential to mutate into highly pathogenic viruses. However, evaluations of LPAI surveillance have mainly focused on prevalence and not on the ability to act as an early warning system. We used a simulation model based on data from Italian LPAI epidemics in turkeys to evaluate different surveillance strategies in terms of their performance as early warning systems. The strategies differed in terms of sample size, sampling frequency, diagnostic tests, and whether or not active surveillance (i.e., routine laboratory testing of farms) was performed, and were also tested under different epidemiological scenarios. We compared surveillance strategies by simulating within-farm outbreaks. The output measures were the proportion of infected farms that are detected and the farm reproduction number (R(h)). The first one provides an indication of the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect within-farm infections, whereas R(h) reflects the effectiveness of outbreak detection (i.e., if detection occurs soon enough to bring an epidemic under control). Increasing the sampling frequency was the most effective means of improving the timeliness of detection (i.e., it occurs earlier), whereas increasing the sample size increased the likelihood of detection. Surveillance was only effective in preventing an epidemic if actions were taken within two days of sampling. The strategies were not affected by the quality of the diagnostic test, although performing both serological and virological assays increased the sensitivity of active surveillance. Early detection of LPAI outbreaks in turkeys can be achieved by increasing the sampling frequency for active surveillance, though very frequent sampling may not be sustainable in the long term. We suggest that, when no LPAI virus is circulating yet and there is a low risk of virus introduction, a less frequent sampling approach might be admitted, provided that the surveillance is intensified as soon as the first outbreak is detected.  相似文献   

18.
正Dear Editor,In early 2013,the first case of a human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9)virus was reported in the Yangtze River Delta region of China(Liu et al.2013).Since early2013,a total of 1533 laboratory-confirmed human infections with avian H7N9 viruses have been reported to the  相似文献   

19.
Between 1980 and 1985, Czechoslovakia had experienced 4 and the USSR 3 major influenza outbreaks. Of the 3 epidemic outbreaks in the USSR, 2 were associated with influenza B virus (in the 1980/81 and 1983/84 seasons) and 1 with influenza A virus of the H3N2 subtype. In the USSR, influenza A (H1N1) virus never predominated as a cause of epidemic during the 5 years period. In Czechoslovakia, 2 epidemics (in the 1980/81 and 1983/84 seasons) were due to influenza A (H1N1) virus. The epidemic in the 1981/82 season had two waves of unequal heights and a mixed type B and subtype A (H3N2) etiology; a two-wave epidemic associated with isolates of influenza A (H1N1) and influenza B viruses was also recorded in the 1983/84 season. The influenza A (H3N2) epidemic in 1983 was of explosive character. All influenza viruses circulating in the two countries between 1980 and 1985 were of the same antigenic profile, but were isolated from the epidemics that occurred in different influenza seasons. The virological surveillance revealed strains of virus closely related to drift variants detected from outbreaks in 1977-1979 and the new variants A/Chile 1/83, A/Philippines 2/82, A/Caen 1/84 and B/USSR 100/83.  相似文献   

20.
Li  Xiaowen  Chan  Karen Kie Yan  Xu  Bo  Lu  Ming  Xu  Bing 《中国病毒学》2020,35(1):14-20
Annual influenza B virus epidemics and outbreaks cause severe influenza diseases in humans and pose a threat to public health. China is an important epidemic area of influenza B viruses. However, the spatial, temporal transmission pathways and the demography history of influenza B viruses in China remain unknown. We collected the haemagglutinin gene sequences sampled of influenza B virus in China between 1973 and 2018. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo phylogeographic discrete approach was used to infer the spatial and temporal phylodynamics of influenza B virus. The Bayesian phylogeographic analysis of influenza B viruses showed that the North subtropical and South subtropical zones are the origins of the Victoria and Yamagata lineage viruses, respectively. Furthermore, the South temperate and North subtropical zones acted as transition nodes in the Victoria lineage virus dispersion network and that the North subtropical and Mid subtropical zones acted as transition nodes in the Yamagata lineage virus dispersion network. Our findings contribute to the knowledge regarding the spatial and temporal patterns of influenza B virus outbreaks in China.  相似文献   

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