Variation in breeding phenology provides insights into drivers of long-term population change in harbour seals

Phenological trends provide important indicators of environmental change and population dynamics. However, the use of untested population-level measures can lead to incorrect conclusions about phenological trends, particularly when changes in population structure or density are ignored. We used individual-based estimates of birth date and lactation duration of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) to investigate energetic consequences of changes in pupping phenology. Using generalized linear mixed models, we first demonstrate annual variation in pupping phenology. Second, we show a negative relationship between lactation duration and the timing of pupping, indicating that females who pup early nurse their pups longer, thereby highlighting lactation duration as a useful proxy of female condition and resource availability. Third, individual-based data were used to derive a population-level proxy that demonstrated an advance in pupping date over the last 25 years, co-incident with a reduction in population abundance that resulted from fisheries-related shootings. These findings demonstrate that phenological studies examining the impacts of climate change on mammal populations must carefully control for changes in population density and highlight how joint investigations of phenological and demographic change provide insights into the drivers of population declines.     

Historical population size of the harbour seal,Phoca vitulina,in the Delta area,SW Netherlands

Seals in the Dutch Delta area have been subject to hunting pressure for centuries, promoted by a bounty system which generated a sort of hunting statistics. Hunting mortality is used to estimate historical population size. Based on ranges for most likely net recruitment rates, corresponding population trajectories are back calculated from an assessed population size of 350 seals in 1960. It is concluded that the size of the harbour seal population in the Delta area in 1900 will have been close to 11 500 animals. Significant loss of habitat has occurred due to closing off parts of the larger estuaries and the enlargement of the entrance to the harbour of Rotterdam in the 1960s and early 1970s. It is estimated that about 4000 harbour seals could inhabit the remaining Delta area under tidal influence. This outcome, based on retrospective population analysis, will be an important reference in defining management objectives for the recovery of the harbour seal population in the Delta area, which amounted to 18 seals in 1992.     

Vector host-feeding preferences drive transmission of multi-host pathogens: West Nile virus as a model system

Seasonal epizootics of vector-borne pathogens infecting multiple species are ecologically complex and difficult to forecast. Pathogen transmission potential within the host community is determined by the relative abilities of host species to maintain and transmit the pathogen and by ecological factors influencing contact rates between hosts and vectors. Increasing evidence of strong feeding preferences by a number of vectors suggests that the host community experienced by the pathogen may be very different from the local host community. We developed an empirically informed transmission model for West Nile virus (WNV) in four sites using one vector species (Culex pipiens) and preferred and non-preferred avian hosts. We measured strong feeding preferences for American robins (Turdus migratorius) by Cx. pipiens, quantified as the proportion of Cx. pipiens blood meals from robins in relation to their abundance (feeding index). The model accurately predicted WNV prevalence in Cx. pipiens at three of four sites. Sensitivity analysis revealed feeding preference was the most influential parameter on intensity and timing of peak WNV infection in Cx. pipiens and a threshold feeding index for transmission was identified. Our findings indicate host preference-induced contact heterogeneity is a key mediator of vector-borne pathogen epizootics in multi-species host communities, and should be incorporated into multi-host transmission models.     

Natural vertical transmission of dengue viruses by Aedes aegypti in Bolivia

The natural transmission of dengue virus from an infected female mosquito to its progeny, namely the vertical transmission, was researched in wild caught Aedes aegypti during an important outbreak in the town of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia. Mosquitoes were collected at the preimaginal stages (eggs, larvae and pupae) then reared up to adult stage for viral detection using molecular methods. Dengue virus serotypes 1 and 3 were found to be co-circulating with significant higher prevalence in male than in female mosquitoes. Of the 97 pools of Ae. aegypti (n = 635 male and 748 female specimens) screened, 14 pools, collected in February-May in 2007, were found positive for dengue virus infection: five DEN-1 and nine DEN-3. The average true infection rate (TIR) and minimum infection rate (MIR) were respectively 1.08% and 1.01%. These observations suggest that vertical transmission of dengue virus may be detected in vectors at the peak of an outbreak as well as several months before an epidemic occurs in human population.     

Surface temperature patterns in seals and sea lions: A validation of temporal and spatial consistency

We assessed infrared thermography (IRT) as a tool for evaluating spatial and temporal surface temperature patterns in juvenile female harbor seals (Phoca vitulina, n=6) and adult female Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus, n=2). Following a technical assessment of the influence of environmental parameters on the specific camera to be used, we identified regional and seasonal variability of surface temperatures. Variation was observed in several seasonal transitions (winter, reproductive, molt) in ten monitored body regions. Spatially and temporally consistent thermal patterns in the shoulder, axillae, foreflipper and hindflipper suggest thermal windows in both species.     

Role of microparticles in dengue virus infection and its impact on medical intervention strategies

Dengue virus (DV) is one of the most important vector-borne diseases in the world. It causes a disease that manifests as a spectrum of clinical symptoms, including dengue hemorrhagic fever. DV is proficient at diverting the immune system to facilitate transmission through its vector host, Aedes spp. mosquito. Similar to other vector-borne parasites, dengue may also require a second structural form, a virus of alternative morphology (VAM), to complete its life cycle. DV can replicate to high copy numbers in patient plasma, but no classical viral particles can be detected by ultra-structural microscopy analysis. A VAM appearing as a microparticle has been recapitulated with in vitro cell lines Meg01 and K562, close relatives to the cells harboring dengue virus in vivo. VAMs are likely to contribute to the high viremia levels observed in dengue patients. This review discusses the possible existence of a VAM in the DV life cycle.     

Learning from history, predicting the future: the UK Dutch elm disease outbreak in relation to contemporary tree disease threats

Expanding international trade and increased transportation are heavily implicated in the growing threat posed by invasive pathogens to biodiversity and landscapes. With trees and woodland in the UK now facing threats from a number of disease systems, this paper looks to historical experience with the Dutch elm disease (DED) epidemic of the 1970s to see what can be learned about an outbreak and attempts to prevent, manage and control it. The paper draws on an interdisciplinary investigation into the history, biology and policy of the epidemic. It presents a reconstruction based on a spatial modelling exercise underpinned by archival research and interviews with individuals involved in the attempted management of the epidemic at the time. The paper explores what, if anything, might have been done to contain the outbreak and discusses the wider lessons for plant protection. Reading across to present-day biosecurity concerns, the paper looks at the current outbreak of ramorum blight in the UK and presents an analysis of the unfolding epidemiology and policy of this more recent, and potentially very serious, disease outbreak. The paper concludes by reflecting on the continuing contemporary relevance of the DED experience at an important juncture in the evolution of plant protection policy.     

Variation in relapse frequency and the transmission potential of Plasmodium vivax malaria

There is substantial variation in the relapse frequency of Plasmodium vivax malaria, with fast-relapsing strains in tropical areas, and slow-relapsing strains in temperate areas with seasonal transmission. We hypothesize that much of the phenotypic diversity in P. vivax relapses arises from selection of relapse frequency to optimize transmission potential in a given environment, in a process similar to the virulence trade-off hypothesis. We develop mathematical models of P. vivax transmission and calculate the basic reproduction number R₀ to investigate how transmission potential varies with relapse frequency and seasonality. In tropical zones with year-round transmission, transmission potential is optimized at intermediate relapse frequencies of two to three months: slower-relapsing strains increase the opportunity for onward transmission to mosquitoes, but also increase the risk of being outcompeted by faster-relapsing strains. Seasonality is an important driver of relapse frequency for temperate strains, with the time to first relapse predicted to be six to nine months, coinciding with the duration between seasonal transmission peaks. We predict that there is a threshold degree of seasonality, below which fast-relapsing tropical strains are selected for, and above which slow-relapsing temperate strains dominate, providing an explanation for the observed global distribution of relapse phenotypes.     

Double-stranded RNA virus in Korean isolate IH-2 of Trichomonas vaginalis

In this study, we describe Korean isolates of Trichomonas vaginalis infected with double-stranded (ds) RNA virus (TVV). One T. vaginalis isolate infected with TVV IH-2 evidenced weak pathogenicity in the mouse assay coupled with the persistent presence of a dsRNA, thereby indicating a hypovirulence effect of dsRNA in T. vaginalis. Cloning and sequence analysis results revealed that the genomic dsRNA of TVV IH-2 was 4,647 bp in length and evidenced a sequence identity of 80% with the previously-described TVV 1-1 and 1-5, but only a 42% identity with TVV 2-1 and 3 isolates. It harbored 2 overlapping open reading frames of the putative capsid protein and dsRNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). As previously observed in the TVV isolates 1-1 and 1-5, a conserved ribosomal slippage heptamer (CCUUUUU) and its surrounding sequence context within the consensus 14-nt overlap implied the gene expression of a capsid protein-RdRp fusion protein, occurring as the result of a potential ribosomal frameshift event. The phylogenetic analysis of RdRp showed that the Korean TVV IH-2 isolate formed a compact group with TVV 1-1 and 1-5 isolates, which was divergent from TVV 2-1, 3 and other viral isolates classified as members of the Giardiavirus genus.     

Feeder use predicts both acquisition and transmission of a contagious pathogen in a North American songbird

Individual heterogeneity can influence the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife and humans alike. Thus, recent work has sought to identify behavioural characteristics that contribute disproportionately to individual variation in pathogen acquisition (super-receiving) or transmission (super-spreading). However, it remains unknown whether the same behaviours enhance both acquisition and transmission, a scenario likely to result in explosive epidemics. Here, we examined this possibility in an ecologically relevant host–pathogen system: house finches and their bacterial pathogen, Mycoplasma gallisepticum, which causes severe conjunctivitis. We examined behaviours likely to influence disease acquisition (feeder use, aggression, social network affiliations) in an observational field study, finding that the time an individual spends on bird feeders best predicted the risk of conjunctivitis. To test whether this behaviour also influences the likelihood of transmitting M. gallisepticum, we experimentally inoculated individuals based on feeding behaviour and tracked epidemics within captive flocks. As predicted, transmission was fastest when birds that spent the most time on feeders initiated the epidemic. Our results suggest that the same behaviour underlies both pathogen acquisition and transmission in this system and potentially others. Identifying individuals that exhibit such behaviours is critical for disease management.     

Transovarial transmission of African swine fever virus in the argasid tick Ornithodoros moubata

The aim of this study was to determine filial infection prevalence of experimentally infected colony Ornithodoros moubata Walton (Ixodoidea: Argasidae) ticks for African swine fever virus (ASFV). Three groups of ticks were used: an uninfected control group, one group orally infected with the VIC T90/1 isolate and another group orally infected with the LIV 13/33 isolate of ASFV. The results show that filial infection prevalences were not constant but were highly variable between egg batches from different ticks and between successive egg batches from the same tick. Filial infection prevalences ranged from 1.8% to 31.8% for ticks infected with the VICT90/1 isolate and from 1.2% to 35.5% for ticks infected with the LIV 13/33 isolate. A similar pattern was noted after the third feed. Immunohistochemisty showed that virus replicates in the developing larval cells and not in the yolk sac cells or within the outer layers of the eggs. The results show that ASFV can replicate to a high titre (10(5.1)log10HAD50) within the larval cells of the developing egg.     

Malaria transmission potential by Anopheles sinensis in the Republic of Korea.

To evaluate the factors that determine the transmission level of vivax malaria using vectorial capacity, entomological surveys were conducted from June to August, 2000. From 6 nights of human-bait collection in Paju, the human biting rate (ma) was counted as 87.5 bites/man/night. The parity of Anopheles sinensis from human baiting collections fluctuated from 41% to 71% (average 48.8%) of which the rate gradually increased as time passed on: 35.2% in Jun.; 55.0% in July; 66.2% in Aug. From this proportion of parous, we could estimate the probability of daily survival rate of An. sinensis to be 0.79 assumed with 3 days gonotrophic cycle and the expectancy of infective life through 11 days could be defined as 0.073. Blood meal analysis was performed using ELISA to determine the blood meal source. Only 0.8% of blood meals were from human hosts. We could conclude that An. sinensis is highly zoophilic (cow 61.8%). Malaria is highly unstable (stability index < 0.5) in this area. From these data, vectorial capacity (VC) was determined to be 0.081. In spite of a high human biting rate (ma), malaria transmission potential is very low due to a low human blood index. Therefore, we could conclude that malaria transmission by An. sinensis is resulted by high population density, not by high transmission potential. For this reason, we need more effort to decrease vector population and vector-human contact to eradicate malaria in Korea.     

Heterogeneous anomalous diffusion of a virus in the cytoplasm of a living cell

The infection pathway of a virus in the cytoplasm of a living cell is studied from the viewpoint of diffusion theory, based on a phenomenon observed by single-molecule imaging. The cytoplasm plays the role of a medium for stochastic motion of a virus contained in an endosome as well as a free virus. It is experimentally known that the exponent of anomalous diffusion fluctuates in localized areas of the cytoplasm. Here, generalizing the fractional kinetic theory, such fluctuations are described in terms of the exponent locally distributed over the cytoplasm and a theoretical proposition is presented for its statistical form. The proposed fluctuations may be examined in an experiment of heterogeneous diffusion in the infection pathway.     

Assessing the impact of feline immunodeficiency virus and bovine tuberculosis co-infection in African lions

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis, is a disease that was introduced relatively recently into the Kruger National Park (KNP) lion population. Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV(ple)) is thought to have been endemic in lions for a much longer time. In humans, co-infection between Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus increases disease burden. If BTB were to reach high levels of prevalence in lions, and if similar worsening effects would exist between FIV(ple) and BTB as for their human equivalents, this could pose a lion conservation problem. We collected data on lions in KNP from 1993 to 2008 for spatio-temporal analysis of both FIV(ple) and BTB, and to assess whether a similar relationship between the two diseases exists in lions. We found that BTB prevalence in the south was higher than in the north (72 versus 19% over the total study period) and increased over time in the northern part of the KNP (0-41%). No significant spatio-temporal differences were seen for FIV(ple) in the study period, in agreement with the presumed endemic state of the infection. Both infections affected haematology and blood chemistry values, FIV(ple) in a more pronounced way than BTB. The effect of co-infection on these values, however, was always less than additive. Though a large proportion (31%) of the lions was co-infected with FIV(ple) and M. bovis, there was no evidence for a synergistic relation as in their human counterparts. Whether this results from different immunopathogeneses remains to be determined.     

Mapping of two O-GlcNAc modification sites in the capsid protein of the potyvirus Plum pox virus

A large number of O-linked N-acetylglucosamine (O-GlcNAc) residues have been mapped in vertebrate proteins, however targets of O-GlcNAcylation in plants still have not been characterized. We show here that O-GlcNAcylation of the N-terminal region of the capsid protein of Plum pox virus resembles that of animal proteins in introducing O-GlcNAc monomers. Thr-19 and Thr-24 were specifically O-GlcNAcylated. These residues are surrounded by amino acids typical of animal O-GlcNAc acceptor sites, suggesting that the specificity of O-GlcNAc transferases is conserved among plants and animals. In laboratory conditions, mutations preventing O-GlcNAcylation of Thr-19 and Thr-24 did not have noticeable effects on PPV competence to infect Prunus persicae or Nicotiana clevelandii. However, the fact that Thr-19 and Thr-24 are highly conserved among different PPV strains suggests that their O-GlcNAc modification could be relevant for efficient competitiveness in natural conditions.     

Infection Status of Hospitalized Diarrheal Patients with Gastrointestinal Protozoa, Bacteria, and Viruses in the Republic of Korea

To understand protozoan, viral, and bacterial infections in diarrheal patients, we analyzed positivity and mixed-infection status with 3 protozoans, 4 viruses, and 10 bacteria in hospitalized diarrheal patients during 2004-2006 in the Republic of Korea. A total of 76,652 stool samples were collected from 96 hospitals across the nation. The positivity for protozoa, viruses, and bacteria was 129, 1,759, and 1,797 per 10,000 persons, respectively. Especially, Cryptosporidium parvum was highly mixed-infected with rotavirus among pediatric diarrheal patients (29.5 per 100 C. parvum positive cases), and Entamoeba histolytica was mixed-infected with Clostridium perfringens (10.3 per 100 E. histolytica positive cases) in protozoan-diarrheal patients. Those infected with rotavirus and C. perfringens constituted relatively high proportions among mixed infection cases from January to April. The positivity for rotavirus among viral infection for those aged ≤ 5 years was significantly higher, while C. perfringens among bacterial infection was higher for ≥ 50 years. The information for association of viral and bacterial infections with enteropathogenic protozoa in diarrheal patients may contribute to improvement of care for diarrhea as well as development of control strategies for diarrheal diseases in Korea.     

Detection of replication-defective hepatitis A virus based on the correlation between real-time polymerase chain reaction and ELISA in situ results

ELISA in situ can be used to titrate hepatitis A virus (HAV) particles and real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) has been shown to be a fast method to quantify the HAV genome. Precise quantification of viral concentration is necessary to distinguish between infectious and non-infectious particles. The purpose of this study was to compare cell culture and RT-PCR quantification results and determine whether HAV genome quantification can be correlated with infectivity. For this purpose, three stocks of undiluted, five-fold diluted and 10-fold diluted HAV were prepared to inoculate cells in a 96-well plate. Monolayers were then incubated for seven, 10 and 14 days and the correlation between the ELISA in situ and RT-PCR results was evaluated. At 10 days post-incubation, the highest viral load was observed in all stocks of HAV via RT-PCR (10⁵ copies/mL) (p = 0.0002), while ELISA revealed the highest quantity of particles after 14 days (optical density = 0.24, p < 0.001). At seven days post-infection, there was a significant statistical correlation between the results of the two methods, indicating equivalents titres of particles and HAV genome during this period of infection. The results reported here indicate that the duration of growth of HAV in cell culture must be taken into account to correlate genome quantification with infectivity.     

Urban habituation, ecological connectivity and epidemic dampening: the emergence of Hendra virus from flying foxes (Pteropus spp.)

Anthropogenic environmental change is often implicated in the emergence of new zoonoses from wildlife; however, there is little mechanistic understanding of these causal links. Here, we examine the transmission dynamics of an emerging zoonotic paramyxovirus, Hendra virus (HeV), in its endemic host, Australian Pteropus bats (fruit bats or flying foxes). HeV is a biosecurity level 4 (BSL-4) pathogen, with a high case-fatality rate in humans and horses. With models parametrized from field and laboratory data, we explore a set of probable contributory mechanisms that explain the spatial and temporal pattern of HeV emergence; including urban habituation and decreased migration-two widely observed changes in flying fox ecology that result from anthropogenic transformation of bat habitat in Australia. Urban habituation increases the number of flying foxes in contact with human and domestic animal populations, and our models suggest that, in addition, decreased bat migratory behaviour could lead to a decline in population immunity, giving rise to more intense outbreaks after local viral reintroduction. Ten of the 14 known HeV outbreaks occurred near urbanized or sedentary flying fox populations, supporting these predictions. We also demonstrate that by incorporating waning maternal immunity into our models, the peak modelled prevalence coincides with the peak annual spill-over hazard for HeV. These results provide the first detailed mechanistic framework for understanding the sporadic temporal pattern of HeV emergence, and of the urban/peri-urban distribution of HeV outbreaks in horses and people.     

Non-synonymous polymorphisms in the P2RX 4 are related to bone mineral density and osteoporosis risk in a cohort of Dutch fracture patients

In the present study we investigated whether single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the P2RX₄, which alter the P2X₄R function, are associated with the development of osteoporosis and whether an interaction between the P2X₄R and P2X₇R confer a synergistic effect of these two receptors on osteoporosis risk. Patients with fracture (690 females and 231 males, aged ≥50 years) were genotyped for three non-synonymous P2X₄R SNPs. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the total hip, lumbar spine, and femoral neck. Subject carrying the variant allele of the Tyr315Cys polymorphism showed a 2.68-fold (95 % CI, 1.20–6.02) higher risk of osteoporosis compared with wild-type subject. Furthermore, significant lower lumbar spine BMD values were observed in subjects carrying the Cys315 allele as compared with wild-type (0.85 ± 0.17 and 0.93 ± 0.17 g/cm², respectively; p < 0.001). Assuming a recessive model, carriers of the variant allele of the Ser242Gly polymorphism showed increased BMD values at the lumbar spine compare to wild-type subject (1.11 ± 0.35 and 0.92 ± 0.17 g/cm², respectively; p = 0.0045). This is the first study demonstrating an association of non-synonymous polymorphisms in the P2RX₄ and the risk of osteoporosis, suggesting a role of the P2X₄R in the regulation of bone mass.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11302-012-9337-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.