What is the best control strategy for multiple infectious disease outbreaks?

Effective control of infectious disease outbreaks is an important public health goal. In a number of recent studies, it has been shown how different intervention measures like travel restrictions, school closures, treatment and prophylaxis might allow us to control outbreaks of diseases, such as SARS, pandemic influenza and others. In these studies, control of a single outbreak is considered. It is, however, not clear how one should handle a situation where multiple outbreaks are likely to occur. Here, we identify the best control strategy for such a situation. We further discuss ways in which such a strategy can be implemented to achieve additional public health objectives.     

Should the use of DDT be revived for malaria vector control?

Indoor residual spraying with DDT was the principle method by which malaria transmission was eradicated or greatly reduced in many countries between the late 1940s and 1970s. Since then, decreasing use of DDT has been associated with a resurgence of malaria in India, Sri Lanka, former Soviet Central Asia, Zanzibar, Venezuela and several other Latin American countries. In India and Zanzibar, DDT resistance in vectors, as well as a decline in spray coverage, are probable causes of reduced effectiveness of DDT in recent decades. In southern Europe, eradication of malaria transmission was achieved by DDT spraying in the 1940s and 50s and eradication has been sustained by adequate treatment of imported human malaria cases. In the highlands of Madagascar and South Africa, recent reversion to DDT spraying has been successful in stemming resurgences of malaria. Continued use of DDT for vector control, but not for agriculture, is approved by the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. DDE residues in breast milk have been associated with DDT anti-malaria spraying in South Africa, but it is not known whether this is harmful. A claimed association of DDE residues with breast cancer have not been substantiated. There is a recent report of association of DDE residues with probability of premature birth; the possible relevance of this to anti-malarial use of DDT should be investigated. In Colombia, testing of the DDT stockpile for suspensibility, DDT resistance in Anopheles darlingi and investigation of the present affordability of widespread spraying with DDT, compared with alternative chemicals, are recommended.     

Optimizing surveys for marsh songbirds: does timing matter?

Analysis of data from point counts, a common method for monitoring bird population trends, has evolved to produce estimates of various population parameters (e.g., density, abundance, and occupancy) while simultaneously estimating detection probability. An important consideration when designing studies using point counts is to maximize detection probability while minimizing variation in detection probability both within and between counts. Our objectives were to estimate detection probabilities for three marsh songbirds, including Marsh Wrens (Cistothorus palustris), Swamp Sparrows (Melospiza georgiana), and Yellow‐headed Blackbirds (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus), as a function of weather covariates and to evaluate temporal variability in detection probability of these three species. We conducted paired, unlimited radius, 10‐min point counts during consecutive morning and evening survey periods for our three focal species at 56 wetlands in Iowa from 20 April to 10 July 2010. Mean detection probabilities ranged from 0.272 (SE = 0.042) for Marsh Wrens to 0.365 (SE = 0.052) for Swamp Sparrows. Time of season was positively correlated with detection probability for Swamp Sparrows, but was negatively correlated with detection probability for Yellow‐headed Blackbirds, suggesting that detection probability increased during the breeding season for Swamp Sparrows and was highest early in the breeding season for Yellow‐headed Blackbirds. Understanding how detection probabilities of marsh songbirds vary throughout the breeding season allows targeted survey efforts that maximize detection probabilities for these species. Furthermore, consistent detection probabilities of marsh songbirds during morning and evening survey periods mean that investigators have more time to conduct surveys for these birds, allowing greater flexibility to increase spatial and temporal replication of surveys that could provide more precise estimates of desired population parameters.     

Conservation planning with irreplaceability: does the method matter?

A number of systematic conservation planning tools are available to aid in making land use decisions. Given the increasing worldwide use and application of reserve design tools, including measures of site irreplaceability, it is essential that methodological differences and their potential effect on conservation planning outcomes are understood. We compared the irreplaceability of sites for protecting ecosystems within the Brigalow Belt Bioregion, Queensland, Australia, using two alternative reserve system design tools, Marxan and C-Plan. We set Marxan to generate multiple reserve systems that met targets with minimal area; the first scenario ignored spatial objectives, while the second selected compact groups of areas. Marxan calculates the irreplaceability of each site as the proportion of solutions in which it occurs for each of these set scenarios. In contrast, C-Plan uses a statistical estimate of irreplaceability as the likelihood that each site is needed in all combinations of sites that satisfy the targets. We found that sites containing rare ecosystems are almost always irreplaceable regardless of the method. Importantly, Marxan and C-Plan gave similar outcomes when spatial objectives were ignored. Marxan with a compactness objective defined twice as much area as irreplaceable, including many sites with relatively common ecosystems. However, targets for all ecosystems were met using a similar amount of area in C-Plan and Marxan, even with compactness. The importance of differences in the outcomes of using the two methods will depend on the question being addressed; in general, the use of two or more complementary tools is beneficial.     

Asymmetry patterns across the distribution range: does the species matter?

An important question in evolutionary ecology is whether different populations across a species range, from core to periphery, experience different levels of stress. The estimation of developmental instability has been proposed as a useful tool for quantifying the degree of environmental and genetic stress that individuals experience during their development. Fluctuating asymmetry, the unsigned difference between the two sides of a bilaterally symmetrical trait, has been suggested to reflect the levels of developmental instability in a population. As such, it has been proposed as a useful tool for estimating changes in developmental instability and in stress response in populations across a range of environmental conditions. Recent studies focusing mostly on birds have detected increasing fluctuating asymmetry from core to periphery across the distribution range, suggesting that peripheral populations may experience higher levels of environmental and/or genetic stress. Most of these comparisons were done for single taxa across a single gradient. However, different species are predicted to respond differently to environmental shifts across the range. We compared asymmetry patterns in wing morphology in populations of two Euchloe butterfly species across their opposing ranges in Israel. Contrary to the patterns observed in birds across the same gradient, bilateral asymmetry did not increase or shift towards the periphery in either of the butterfly species. If fluctuating asymmetry in these traits reflects levels of stress, these results may partly reflect the fact that the range of these two butterfly species is limited by the distribution of their host plant, rather than by abiotic environmental variables. In addition, developing pierids can diapause during harsh seasons and can persist in resource‐rich patches, thus minimizing the environmental stress perceived by developing individuals. We conclude that accounting for differences in species’ life histories and range‐limiting factors is necessary in order to better predict patterns of developmental instability across spatial and environmental gradients. © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2004, 81 , 313–324.     

Identifying the demographic processes relevant for species conservation in human-impacted areas: does the model matter?

The identification of the demographic processes responsible for the decline in population growth rate (λ) in disturbed areas would allow conservation efforts to be efficiently directed. Integral projection models (IPMs) are used for this purpose, but it is unclear whether the conclusions drawn from their analysis are sensitive to how functional structures (the functions that describe how survival, growth and fecundity vary with individual size) are selected. We constructed 12 IPMs that differed in their functional structure by combining two reproduction models and three functional expressions (generalized linear, cubic and additive models), each with and without simplification. Models were parameterized with data from two populations of two endangered cacti subject to different disturbance intensities. For each model, we identified the demographic processes that most affected λ in the presence of disturbance. Simulations were performed on artificial data and analyzed as above to assess the generality of the results. In both empirical and simulated data, the same processes were identified as making the largest contribution to changes in λ regardless of the functional structure. The major differences in the results were due to misspecification of the fecundity functions, whilst functional expression and model simplification had lesser effects. Therefore, as long as the demographic attributes of the species are well known and incorporated into the model, IPMs will robustly identify the processes that most affect the growth of populations subject to disturbance, making them a reliable tool for developing conservation strategies.     

Diversity in the Monogenea and Digenea: does lifestyle matter?

If the cestodes are excluded, then the parasitic platyhelminths of fishes divide neatly into the external and monoxenous Monogenea and the internal and heteroxenous Digenea. Both groups have apparently had long associations of coevolution, host switching and adaptation with fishes and have become highly successful in their respective habitats. Current estimates of species richness for the two groups suggest that they may be remarkably similar. Here we consider the nature of the diversity of the Monogenea and Digenea of fishes in terms of richness of species and higher taxa to determine what processes may be responsible for observed differences. The Monogenea includes at least two super-genera (Dactylogyrus and Gyrodactylus) each of which has hundreds of species; no comparable genera are found in the Digenea. Possible reasons for this difference include the higher host specificity of monogeneans and their shorter generation time. If allowance is made for the vagaries of taxonomic 'lumping' and 'splitting', then there are probably comparable numbers of families of monogeneans and digeneans in fishes. However, the nature of the families differ profoundly. Richness in higher taxa (families) in the Digenea is explicable in terms of processes that appear to have been unimportant in the Monogenea. Readily identifiable sources of diversity in the Digenea are: recolonisation of fishes by taxa that arose in association with tetrapods; adoption of new sites within hosts; adoption of new diets and feeding mechanisms; adaptations relating to the exploitation of ecologically similar groups of fishes and second intermediate hosts; and adaptations relating to the exploitation of phylogenetic lineages of molluscs. In contrast, most higher- level monogenean diversity (other than that associated with the subclasses) relates principally to morphological specialisation for attachment by the haptor.     

Can fungal biopesticides control malaria?

Recent research has raised the prospect of using insect fungal pathogens for the control of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. In the past, microbial control of insect pests in both medical and agricultural sectors has generally had limited success. We propose that it might now be possible to produce a cheap, safe and green tool for the control of malaria, which, in contrast to most chemical insecticides, will not eventually be rendered useless by evolution of resistance. Realizing this potential will require lateral thinking by biologists, technologists and development agencies.     

Are wetlands the reservoir for avian cholera?

Wetlands have long been suspected to be an important reservoir for Pasteurella multocida and therefore the likely source of avian cholera outbreaks. During the fall of 1995-98 we collected sediment and water samples from 44 wetlands where avian cholera epizootics occurred the previous winter or spring. We attempted to isolate P. multocida in sediment and surface water samples from 10 locations distributed throughout each wetland. We were not able to isolate P. multocida from any of the 440 water and 440 sediment samples collected from these wetlands. In contrast, during other investigations of avian cholera we isolated P. multocida from 20 of 44 wetlands, including 7% of the water and 4.5% of the sediment samples collected during or shortly following epizootic events. Our results indicate that wetlands are an unlikely reservoir for the bacteria that causes avian cholera.     

Controlled group designs in biofeedback research: Ask, “what does the control group control for?”

The extant literature on the specific role of biofeedback in promoting skeletal muscular relaxation is reviewed and found deficient with respect to the use of properly controlled group outcome research. The review emphasizes the failure of commonly used control procedures to adequately control a number of potentially confounding variables. Strengths and weaknesses of three types of controlled group design (attention placebo, pseudofeedback, and altered contingency) are discussed with respect to their relative usefulness in controlling certain nonspecific or placebo effects in biofeedback research. Many published biofeedback studies failed to measure the credibility of control procedures or the subject's ability to discriminate different feedback contingencies. The studies reviewed suggest that the various control procedures used are not inert and are not equivalent with respect to their effects on control group behavior. The suggestion is made that the controlled group outcome design be accepted as the minimum requirement for testing the specific effects of biofeedback, and possible methods for improving control procedures are discussed.     

Spatial heterogeneity of spring phytoplankton in a large tropical reservoir: could mass effect homogenize the heterogeneity by species sorting?

Dredging Austrian Danube harbours becomes necessary to keep the navigation channel free from bed sediment and to insure safe navigation, especially after major floods. In most cases, the excavated substrate is deposited in the free-flowing river section in the vicinity of the mouth of a harbour. The effects of harbour dredging on the biota need to be studied to minimize possible outcomes that may endanger the ecological status of the river system in order to implement the aims of the European Water Framework Directive. This study presents the first quantitative information on the colonisation of benthic invertebrates with respect to Danube harbours. One sampling at Linz Harbour was conducted before dredging and four samplings were carried out after dredging. Four transects were documented in the affected river section. The study used an air-lift sampler and a grab sampler to investigate if and to what extent the benthic invertebrate community is disturbed. It found that the sediment dredging heavily affected the benthic invertebrates (decline of 82% of biomass), while the dumping of the material had no effects on the benthic Danube biota. As a rough estimate (conferring to a simple trend line analysis) the harbour bottom fauna would recover after 235 days.     

Chaperoning prions: the cellular machinery for propagating an infectious protein?

Newly made polypeptide chains require the help of molecular chaperones not only to rapidly reach their final three-dimensional forms, but also to unfold and then correctly refold them back to their biologically active form should they misfold. Most prions are an unusual type of protein that can exist in one of two stable conformations, one of which leads to formation of an infectious alternatively folded form. Studies in Baker's yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) have revealed that prions can exploit the molecular chaperone machinery in the cell in order to ensure stable propagation of the infectious, aggregation-prone form. The disaggregation of yeast prion aggregates by molecular chaperones generates forms of the prion protein that can seed the protein polymerisation that underlies the prion propagation cycle. In this article, we review what we have learnt about the role of molecular chaperones in yeast prion propagation, describe a model that can explain the role of various classes of molecular chaperones and their co-chaperones, and speculate on the possible involvement of chaperones in the propagation of mammalian prions.