Genetic Polymorphisms of Estrogen Receptors α and β and the Risk of Developing Prostate Cancer

Estrogen may be involved in the development of prostate cancer. The association between genetic polymorphisms of estrogen receptors α (ESR1) and β (ESR2) and prostate cancer risk was examined in a nested case-control study in Washington County, Maryland. Incident prostate cancer cases (n = 269) were matched to one or two controls (n = 440) by age, sex, race, and date of blood donation. Associations between estrogen receptor genotypes or dietary intake and the development of prostate cancer were examined in conditional logistic regression models. Results from this study showed that six single base-pair polymorphisms (SNPs) of ESR1 (rs1801132, rs2077647, rs746432, rs2273206, rs851982, rs2228480) and four SNPs of ESR2 (rs4986938, rs928554, rs8018687, rs number not available for ESR2 5696 bp 3′ of STP A>G) were not significantly associated with prostate cancer risk, either by allelic or genotypic frequencies. However, an interactive association with BMI was observed in the relationship between prostate cancer risk and genotypes of ESR2 38 bp 3′ of STP G>A (rs4986938) (p = 0.031). An interaction between intake level of phytoestrogen and genotypes of ESR1 Ex1-192G>C (rs746432) and between intake level of phytoestrogen and genotypes of ESR1 Ex8+229G>A (rs2228480) and risk of prostate cancer was observed (p = 0.0009 and p = 0.044, respectively). In conclusion, selected genetic polymorphisms of ESR1 and ESR2, overall, were not associated with prostate cancer risk. However, a variation in risk by BMI and phytoestrogen intake was implicated.     

Functional Polymorphisms of FAS and FASL Gene and Risk of Breast Cancer – Pilot Study of 134 Cases

Fas/Fas ligand (FasL) system is one of the key apoptotic signaling entities in the extrinsic apoptotic pathway. De-regulation of this pathway, i.e. by mutations may prevent the immune system from the removal of newly-formed tumor cells, and thus lead to tumor formation. The present study investigated the association between −1377 G/A (rs2234767) and −670 A/G (rs1800682) polymorphisms in Fas as well as single nucleotide polymorphisms INV2nt −124 A/G (rs5030772) and −844 C/T (rs763110) in FasL in a sample of Iranian patients with breast cancer. This case-control study was done on 134 breast cancer patients and 152 normal women. Genomic DNA was extracted from whole blood samples. The polymorphisms were determined by using tetra-ARMS-PCR method. There was no significant difference in the genotype distribution of FAS rs2234767 polymorphism between cases and controls. FAS rs1800682, FASL rs5030772, and FASL rs763110 genotypes showed significant associations with an increasing risk of breast cancer (odds ratio OR = 3.18, P = 0.019; OR = 5.08, P = 0.012; OR = 2.40, P = 0.024, respectively). In conclusion, FAS rs2234767 was not associated with breast cancer risk. Though, FAS rs1800682, FASL rs5030772, and FASL rs763110 polymorphisms were associated with the risk of breast cancer in the examined population.     

Dose–Risk and Duration–Risk Relationships between Aspirin and Colorectal Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Published Cohort Studies

Background

In previous meta-analyses, aspirin use has been associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer. However, uncertainty remains on the exact dose–risk and duration–risk relationships.

Methods

We identified studies by searching several English and Chinese electronic databases and reviewing relevant articles. The dose-response meta-analysis was performed by linear trend regression and restricted cubic spline regression. Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore possible heterogeneity among studies. Potential heterogeneity was calculated as Q statistic and I ² value. Publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots and quantified by the Begg’s and Egger’s test.

Results

Twelve studies were included in this meta-analysis. An inverse association between aspirin use and colorectal cancer was observed in both the overall group (RR = 0.74, 95% CI 0.64–0.83 for aspirin dose; RR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.75–0.85 for frequency of aspirin use; RR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.68–0.81 for years of aspirin use) and subgroups stratified by sex and cancer site. The dose-response meta-analysis showed that there was a 20% statistically significant decreased risk of colorectal cancer for 325 mg aspirin per day increment, 18% decreased risk for 7 times aspirin per week increment and 18% decreased risk for 10 years aspirin increment.

Conclusion

Long-term (>5 years), low-dose (75–325 mg per day) and regular aspirin use (2–7 times per week) can effectively reduce the risk of colorectal cancer.     

Depressive Symptoms and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke in the Elderly—Influence of Age and Sex

Although a relationship between depression and cardiovascular events has been suggested, past study results regarding the risk of stroke in relation to depression by subgroups are ambiguous. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of depressive symptoms on risk of incident ischemic stroke in elderly according to age and sex. This prospective cohort study followed up 3852 subjects older than 55 years. Baseline depressive symptoms were defined by a score ≥5 on the Geriatric Depression Scale or antidepressant intake. The outcome measure was incident ischemic stroke within 6 years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models as well as cumulative survival analyses were computed. A total of 156 ischemic strokes occurred during the study period (24 strokes in the age-group<65 years and 132 strokes in the age-group≥65 years). The distribution of strokes in sex-subgroups was 4.5% in men and 3.7% in women. The multivariate analysis showed an elevated stroke risk (Hazard Ratio (HR): 2.84, 95% CI 1.11–7.29, p = 0.030) in subjects from 55 to 64 years with depressive symptoms at baseline but not in subjects older than 65 years. In the multivariate analysis according to sex the risk was increased in women (HR: 1.62, 95% CI 1.02–2.57, P = 0.043) but not in men. The Cox-regression model for interaction showed a significant interaction between age and sex (HR: 3.24, 95% CI 1.21–8.69, P = 0.020). This study corroborates that depressive symptoms pose an important risk for ischemic stroke, which is particularly remarkable in women and patients younger than 65 years.     

Testing and Risk Assessment of Persistent and Bioaccumulating Chemical Substances—Improvements within REACH?

In the proposed new European chemicals regulations—the REACH system—the improved control of persistent and bioaccumulating substances is stated as one of the tasks being of particular importance. In this article, the reliability and validity of the scientific basis for identification of persistent (P), bioaccumulating (B), and toxic (T) substances, and for assessing the risks that these substances may pose, are discussed. We have used the European Union risk assessment of pentabromodiphenyl ether, PentaBDE (CAS 32534-81-9) as a study case in the analysis. It is concluded that for PBT substances there is room for development both with regard to test methodology and with regard to risk assessment procedures.     

Parkinson’s Disease and Risk of Fracture: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

Backgrounds/Objective

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disease among the elderly population. However, epidemiological evidence on the relationship of PD with risk of fracture has not been systematically assessed. Therefore, we performed this meta-analysis of prospective studies to explore the association between PD and risk of fracture.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane Library up to February 26, 2014 were searched to identify eligible studies. Random-effects model was used to pool the results.

Results

Six studies that totally involved 69,387 participants were included for analysis. Overall, PD patients had an increased risk of fracture compared with control subjects (pooled hazard ratio = 2.66, 95% confidence interval: 2.10–3.36). No publication bias was observed across studies and the subgroup as well as sensitivity analysis suggested that the general results were robust.

Conclusion

The present study suggested that PD is associated with an increased risk of fracture. However, given the limited number and moderate quality of included studies, well-designed prospective cohort studies are required to confirm the findings from this meta-analysis.     

Does Simplicity Compromise Accuracy in ACS Risk Prediction? A Retrospective Analysis of the TIMI and GRACE Risk Scores

Background

The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for Unstable Angina/Non-ST–elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality are established tools for assessing risk in Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) patients. The objective of our study was to compare the discriminative abilities of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores in a broad-spectrum, unselected ACS population and to assess the relative contributions of model simplicity and model composition to any observed differences between the two scoring systems.

Methodology/Principal Findings

ACS patients admitted to the University of Michigan between 1999 and 2005 were divided into UA/NSTEMI (n = 2753) and STEMI (n = 698) subpopulations. The predictive abilities of the TIMI and GRACE scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality were assessed by calibration and discrimination. There were 137 in-hospital deaths (4%), and among the survivors, 234 (7.4%) died by 6 months post-discharge. In the UA/NSTEMI population, the GRACE risk scores demonstrated better discrimination than the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score for in-hospital (C = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81–0.89, versus 0.54, 95% CI: 0.48–0.60; p<0.01) and 6-month (C = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.76–0.83, versus 0.56, 95% CI: 0.52–0.60; p<0.01) mortality. Among STEMI patients, the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores demonstrated comparably excellent discrimination for in-hospital (C = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.90 versus 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78–0.89; p = 0.83) and 6-month (C = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63–0.81, versus 0.71, 95% CI: 0.64–0.79; p = 0.79) mortality. An analysis of refitted multivariate models demonstrated a marked improvement in the discriminative power of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI model with the incorporation of heart failure and hemodynamic variables. Study limitations included unaccounted for confounders inherent to observational, single institution studies with moderate sample sizes.

Conclusions/Significance

The GRACE scores provided superior discrimination as compared with the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score in predicting in-hospital and 6-month mortality in UA/NSTEMI patients, although the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores performed equally well in STEMI patients. The observed discriminative deficit of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score likely results from the omission of key risk factors rather than from the relative simplicity of the scoring system.     

Soil Microbial Communities and Ecological Risk Assessment: Risk Assessors’ Perspective

In the past, ecological risk assessments (ERAs) have generally overlooked the soil microbial community when evaluating the impacts of contaminants in soil. However, the soil microbial community, which includes bacteria and fungi, performs functions necessary for overall ecosystem health, including nitrogen fixation, nutrient cycling, and even degradation of contaminants. The incorporation of the soil microbial community into ERA requires the compilation of adequate toxicity data to complete the hazard assessment phase of the risk assessment. A variety of soil microbial toxicity tests exist that provide rapid and inexpensive results. Surveys of the microbial community at a contaminated site may also provide insight as to their functioning in the presence of contaminants. This paper explores the use of toxicity tests and surveys to evaluate chemical toxicity to microbes. However, many questions related to the best methodological approach to an ERA of the soil microbial community have yet to be answered.     

Genetic Polymorphisms and the Risk of Myocardial Infarction in Patients Under 45 Years of Age

This study investigates the potential role of 17 chosen polymorphisms in 15 candidate genes and the risk of myocardial infarction in patients under 45 years of age. The study consists of 271 patients with myocardial infarction and 141 controls. The analysis of genetic polymorphisms was performed using the PCR–RFLP method. Of the chosen polymorphisms, two (Leu125Val PECAM1 and A1/A2 FVII) are related to myocardial infarction and two (C677T MTHFR and 5A/6A MMP3) to advanced stenosis in arterial vessels (> 75%). We also found that the frequency of some combinations among the analyzed genes and environmental factors varied between the patient and control groups.     

Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

Background

Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (<10th percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (<5th and >95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms based on the subset of stillbirths and live births with non-missing variables showed similar findings.

Conclusions

Stillbirth is associated with both growth restriction and excessive fetal growth. These findings suggest that, contrary to current practices and recommendations, stillbirth prevention strategies should focus on both severe SGA and severe LGA pregnancies. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Hypoxia-Inducible Factor-1α Polymorphisms and Risk of Cancer Metastasis: A Meta-Analysis

Background

HIF-1α is a major regulator in tumor progression and metastasis which responds to hypoxia. Many studies have demonstrated that hypoxia-inducible factor1-α (HIF-1α) polymorphisms are significantly associated with cancer metastasis, but the results are inconsistent. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis to estimate the associations between HIF-1α C1772 T polymorphism and cancer metastasis.

Methods

Comprehensive searches were conducted on PubMed and EMBASE database. Fifteen studies were included in the meta-analysis. We used the OR and 95%CI to assess the associations between HIF-1α C1772T polymorphism and cancer metastasis. Heterogeneity and publication bias were also assessed by Q test, I ², and funnel plot.

Results

Totally, fifteen studies including 1239 cases with metastasis-positive (M+) and 2711 cases with metastasis-negative (M−) were performed in this meta-analysis. The results showed that HIF-1a C1772T polymorphism was associated with the increased risk of cancer metastasis (T allele vs. C allele, OR  = 1.36, 95% CI  = 1.12–1.64; TT+ TC vs. CC, OR  = 1.39, 95% CI  = 1.13–1.71; TT vs. TC+ CC, OR  = 1.93, 95% CI  = 0.86–4.36). In the subgroup analyses, the significant associations remained significant among Asians, Caucasians and other cancers in the dominant model. Publication bias was not observed in the analysis.

Conclusions

Our results indicate that the HIF-1αC1772T polymorphism T allele may increase the risk of cancer metastasis, which might be a potential risk factor of cancer progress.     

Can Genetic Pleiotropy Replicate Common Clinical Constellations of Cardiovascular Disease and Risk?

The relationship between obesity, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, kidney disease and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is established when looked at from a clinical, epidemiological or pathophysiological perspective. Yet, when viewed from a genetic perspective, there is comparatively little data synthesis that these conditions have an underlying relationship. We sought to investigate the overlap of genetic variants independently associated with each of these commonly co-existing conditions from the NHGRI genome-wide association study (GWAS) catalog, in an attempt to replicate the established notion of shared pathophysiology and risk. We used pathway-based analyses to detect subsets of pleiotropic genes involved in similar biological processes. We identified 107 eligible GWAS studies related to CVD and its established comorbidities and risk factors and assigned genes that correspond to the associated signals based on their position. We found 44 positional genes shared across at least two CVD-related phenotypes that independently recreated the established relationship between the six phenotypes, but only if studies representing non-European populations were included. Seven genes revealed pleiotropy across three or more phenotypes, mostly related to lipid transport and metabolism. Yet, many genes had no relationship to each other or to genes with established functional connection. Whilst we successfully reproduced established relationships between CVD risk factors using GWAS findings, interpretation of biological pathways involved in the observed pleiotropy was limited. Further studies linking genetic variation to gene expression, as well as describing novel biological pathways will be needed to take full advantage of GWAS results.     

Outcome after Reconstruction of the Proximal Tibia – Complications and Competing Risk Analysis

Background and Objectives

The proximal tibia (pT) is a common site for bone tumors. Improvements in imaging, chemotherapy and surgical technique made limb salvage surgery the treatment of choice. Yet, reconstructions of the pT have been associated with less favorable outcome compared to other parts of the extremities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcome of patients with a modular endoprosthetic reconstruction of the pT.

Methods

Eighty-one consecutive patients with an average age of 29 years underwent endoprosthetic reconstruction of the pT. Postoperative complications were categorized according to the ISOLS classification, and revision-free survival until first complication (any Type 1–5), soft tissue failure (Type 1), aseptic loosening (Type 2), structural failure (Type 3), infection (Type 4), and local tumor progression (Type 5) was estimated by using a Fine-Gray model for competing risk analyses for univariate and multivariable regression with Firth’s bias correction.

Results

A total of 45 patients (56%) had at least one complication. Cumulative incidence for complication Types 1 to 5 at 5 years with death and amputation as competing events revealed a risk of 41% for the first complication, 14% for Type 1, 16% for Type 2, 11% for Type 3, 17% for Type 4, and 1% for Type 5.

Conclusion

Despite inclusion of amputation and death as strong competing events, pT replacements are still associated with a high risk of postoperative failures. The results suggest that infection and soft tissue failures (Type 1 and 5) seem to depend from each other. Sufficient soft tissue reconstruction and closure allow better function and reduce the risk of infection as the most prominent complication. The use of a rotating hinge design has significantly reduced structural failures over time.     

Body Mass Index and Risk of Parkinson’s Disease: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

Background

A number of epidemiologic studies examining the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and the future occurrence of Parkinson’s disease (PD) reported largely inconsistent findings. We conducted a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies to clarify this association.

Methods

Eligible prospective studies were identified by a search of PubMed and by checking the references of related publications. The generalized least squares trend estimation was employed to compute study-specific relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for an increase in BMI of 5 kg/m², and the random-effects model was used to compute summary RR and 95% CI.

Results

A total of 10 prospective studies were included in the final analysis. An increase in BMI of 5 kg/m² was not associated with PD risk, with a summary RR of 1.00 (95% CI = 0.89-1.12). Results of subgroup analysis found similar results except for a week positive association in studies that adjusted for alcohol consumption (RR = 1.13, 95% CI = 0.99-1.29), and a week inverse association in studies that did not (RR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.78-1.04). In a separate meta-analysis, no significant association between overweight (25 kg/m² ≤ BMI ≤29.9 kg/m²), obesity (BMI≥30 kg/m²) or excess weight (BMI≥25 kg/m²) and PD risk was observed.

Conclusion

This meta-analysis does not support the notion that higher BMI materially increases PD risk. However, a week positive BMI-PD association that may be masked by confounders still cannot be excluded, and future prospective studies with a good control for potential confounding factors are needed.     

Blood Erythrocyte Concentrations of Cadmium and Lead and the Risk of B-Cell Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma: A Nested Case-Control Study

Background

Cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb) are hypothesised to be risk factors for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), a group of haematological malignancies with a suspected environmental aetiology. Within the EnviroGenoMarkers study we utilised pre-diagnostic erythrocyte concentrations of Cd and Pb to determine whether exposure was associated with risk of B-cell NHL and multiple myeloma.

Methods

194 incident cases of B-cell NHL and 76 cases of multiple myeloma diagnosed between 1990 and 2006 were identified from two existing cohorts; EPIC-Italy and the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study. Cases were matched to healthy controls by centre, age, gender and date of blood collection. Cd and Pb were measured in blood samples provided at recruitment using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. Logistic regression was applied to assess the association with risk. Analyses were stratified by cohort and gender and by subtype where possible.

Results

There was little evidence of an increased risk of B-cell NHL or multiple myeloma with exposure to Cd (B-cell NHL: OR 1.09 95%CI 0.61, 1.93, MM: OR 1.16 95% CI: 0.40, 3.40 ) or Pb (B-cell NHL: 0.93 95% CI 0.43, 2.02, multiple myeloma: OR 1.63 95%CI 0.45, 5.94) in the total population when comparing the highest to the lowest quartile of exposure. However, gender and cohort specific differences in results were observed. In females the risk of B-cell NHL was more than doubled in those with a body burden of Cd >1µg/L (OR 2.20 95%CI; 1.04, 4.65).

Conclusions

This nested case-control study does not support a consistent positive association between Cd or Pb and NHL, but there is some indication of a gender specific effect suggesting further research is warranted.     

The Knowledge of Colorectal Cancer Symptoms and Risk Factors among 10,078 Screening Participants: Are High Risk Individuals More Knowledgeable?

Objectives

We tested the a priori hypothesis that self-perceived and real presences of risks for colorectal cancer (CRC) are associated with better knowledge of the symptoms and risk factors for CRC, respectively.

Methods

One territory-wide invitation for free CRC screening between 2008 to 2012 recruited asymptomatic screening participants aged 50–70 years in Hong Kong. They completed survey items on self-perceived and real presences of risks for CRC (advanced age, male gender, positive family history and smoking) as predictors, and knowledge of CRC symptoms and risk factors as outcome measures, respectively. Their associations were evaluated by binary logistic regression analyses.

Results

From 10,078 eligible participants (average age 59 years), the mean knowledge scores for symptoms and risk factors were 3.23 and 4.06, respectively (both score range 0–9). Male gender (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.34, 95% C.I. 1.20–1.50, p<0.01), self-perception as not having any risks for CRC (AOR = 1.12, 95% C.I. 1.01–1.24, p = 0.033) or uncertainty about having risks (AOR = 1.94, 95% C.I. 1.55–2.43, p<0.001), smoking (AOR 1.38, 95% C.I. 1.11–1.72, p = 0.004), and the absence of family history (AOR 0.61 to 0.78 for those with positive family history, p<0.001) were associated with poorer knowledge scores (≤4) of CRC symptoms. These factors remained significant for knowledge of risk factors.

Conclusions

Male and smokers were more likely to have poorer knowledge but family history of CRC was associated with better knowledge. Since screening of these higher risk individuals could lead to greater yield of colorectal neoplasm, educational interventions targeted to male smokers were recommended.     

A Detailed Family History of Myocardial Infarction and Risk of Myocardial Infarction – A Nationwide Cohort Study

BackgroundFamily history of myocardial infarction (MI) is an independent risk factor for MI. Several genetic variants are associated with increased risk of MI and family history of MI in a first-degree relative doubles MI risk. However, although family history of MI is not a simple dichotomous risk factor, the impact of specific, detailed family histories has not received much attention, despite its high clinical relevance. We examined risk of MI by MIs in first- and second-degree relatives and by number and age of affected relatives.ConclusionA detailed family history, particularly number of affected first- and second-degree relatives, contributes meaningfully to risk assessment, especially in middle-aged persons. Future studies should test for potential improvement of risk algorithm prediction using detailed family histories.     

Does Litter Size Variation Affect Models of Terrestrial Carnivore Extinction Risk and Management?

Background

Individual variation in both survival and reproduction has the potential to influence extinction risk. Especially for rare or threatened species, reliable population models should adequately incorporate demographic uncertainty. Here, we focus on an important form of demographic stochasticity: variation in litter sizes. We use terrestrial carnivores as an example taxon, as they are frequently threatened or of economic importance. Since data on intraspecific litter size variation are often sparse, it is unclear what probability distribution should be used to describe the pattern of litter size variation for multiparous carnivores.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used litter size data on 32 terrestrial carnivore species to test the fit of 12 probability distributions. The influence of these distributions on quasi-extinction probabilities and the probability of successful disease control was then examined for three canid species – the island fox Urocyon littoralis, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, and the African wild dog Lycaon pictus. Best fitting probability distributions differed among the carnivores examined. However, the discretised normal distribution provided the best fit for the majority of species, because variation among litter-sizes was often small. Importantly, however, the outcomes of demographic models were generally robust to the distribution used.

Conclusion/Significance

These results provide reassurance for those using demographic modelling for the management of less studied carnivores in which litter size variation is estimated using data from species with similar reproductive attributes.