Influenza Forecasting in Human Populations: A Scoping Review

Forecasts of influenza activity in human populations could help guide key preparedness tasks. We conducted a scoping review to characterize these methodological approaches and identify research gaps. Adapting the PRISMA methodology for systematic reviews, we searched PubMed, CINAHL, Project Euclid, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews for publications in English since January 1, 2000 using the terms “influenza AND (forecast* OR predict*)”, excluding studies that did not validate forecasts against independent data or incorporate influenza-related surveillance data from the season or pandemic for which the forecasts were applied. We included 35 publications describing population-based (N = 27), medical facility-based (N = 4), and regional or global pandemic spread (N = 4) forecasts. They included areas of North America (N = 15), Europe (N = 14), and/or Asia-Pacific region (N = 4), or had global scope (N = 3). Forecasting models were statistical (N = 18) or epidemiological (N = 17). Five studies used data assimilation methods to update forecasts with new surveillance data. Models used virological (N = 14), syndromic (N = 13), meteorological (N = 6), internet search query (N = 4), and/or other surveillance data as inputs. Forecasting outcomes and validation metrics varied widely. Two studies compared distinct modeling approaches using common data, 2 assessed model calibration, and 1 systematically incorporated expert input. Of the 17 studies using epidemiological models, 8 included sensitivity analysis. This review suggests need for use of good practices in influenza forecasting (e.g., sensitivity analysis); direct comparisons of diverse approaches; assessment of model calibration; integration of subjective expert input; operational research in pilot, real-world applications; and improved mutual understanding among modelers and public health officials.     

Chewing Betel Quid and the Risk of Metabolic Disease,Cardiovascular Disease,and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Betel nut (Areca nut) is the fruit of the Areca catechu tree. Approximately 700 million individuals regularly chew betel nut (or betel quid) worldwide and it is a known risk factor for oral cancer and esophageal cancer. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the influence of chewing betel quid on metabolic diseases, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We searched Medline, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Science Direct for pertinent articles (including the references) published between 1951 and 2013. The adjusted relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval were calculated using the random effect model. Sex was used as an independent category for comparison.

Results

Of 580 potentially relevant studies, 17 studies from Asia (5 cohort studies and 12 case-control studies) covering 388,134 subjects (range: 94 to 97,244) were selected. Seven studies (N = 121,585) showed significant dose-response relationships between betel quid consumption and the risk of events. According to pooled analysis, the adjusted RR of betel quid chewers vs. non-chewers was 1.47 (P<0.001) for obesity (N = 30,623), 1.51 (P = 0.01) for metabolic syndrome (N = 23,291), 1.47 (P<0.001) for diabetes (N = 51,412), 1.45 (P = 0.06) for hypertension (N = 89,051), 1.2 (P = 0.02) for cardiovascular disease (N = 201,488), and 1.21 (P = 0.02) for all-cause mortality (N = 179,582).

Conclusion/Significance

Betel quid chewing is associated with an increased risk of metabolic disease, cardiovascular disease, and all-cause mortality. Thus, in addition to preventing oral cancer, stopping betel quid use could be a valuable public health measure for metabolic diseases that are showing a rapid increase in South-East Asia and the Western Pacific.     

Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging of Scar Development Following Pulmonary Vein Isolation: A Prospective Study

Aims

Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (MR) provides non-invasive assessment of early (24-hour) edema and injury following pulmonary vein isolation (by ablation) and subsequent scar formation. We hypothesize that 24-hours after ablation, cardiovascular MR would demonstrate a pattern of edema and injury due to ablation and the severity would correlate with subsequent scar.

Methods

Fifteen atrial fibrillation patients underwent cardiovascular MR prior to pulmonary vein isolation, 24-hours post (N = 11) and 30-days post (N = 7) ablation, with T2-weighted (T2W) and late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) imaging. Left atrial wall thickness, edema enhancement ratio and LGE enhancement were assessed at each time point. Volumes of LGE and edema enhancement were measured, and the circumferential presence of injury was assessed at 24-hours, including comparison with LGE enhancement at 30 days.

Results

Left atrial wall thickness was increased 24-hours post-ablation (10.7±4.1 mm vs. 7.0±1.8 mm pre-PVI, p<0.05). T2W enhancement at 24-hours showed increased edema enhancement ratio (1.5±0.4 for post-ablation, vs. 0.9±0.2 pre-ablation, p<0.001). Edema and LGE volumes at 24-hours were correlated with 30-day LGE volume (R = 0.76, p = 0.04, and R = 0.74, p = 0.09, respectively). Using a 16 segment model for assessment, 24-hour T2W had sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 82%, 63%, and 79% respectively, for predicting 30-day LGE. 24-hour LGE had sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 91%, 47%, and 84%.

Conclusions

Increased left atrial wall thickening and edema were characterized on cardiovascular MR early post-ablation, and found to correlate with 30-day LGE scar.     

Identifying Early Changes in Myocardial Microstructure in Hypertensive Heart Disease

The transition from healthy myocardium to hypertensive heart disease is characterized by a series of poorly understood changes in myocardial tissue microstructure. Incremental alterations in the orientation and integrity of myocardial fibers can be assessed using advanced ultrasonic image analysis. We used a modified algorithm to investigate left ventricular myocardial microstructure based on analysis of the reflection intensity at the myocardial-pericardial interface on B-mode echocardiographic images. We evaluated the extent to which the novel algorithm can differentiate between normal myocardium and hypertensive heart disease in humans as well as in a mouse model of afterload resistance. The algorithm significantly differentiated between individuals with uncomplicated essential hypertension (N = 30) and healthy controls (N = 28), even after adjusting for age and sex (P = 0.025). There was a trend in higher relative wall thickness in hypertensive individuals compared to controls (P = 0.08), but no difference between groups in left ventricular mass (P = 0.98) or total wall thickness (P = 0.37). In mice, algorithm measurements (P = 0.026) compared with left ventricular mass (P = 0.053) more clearly differentiated between animal groups that underwent fixed aortic banding, temporary aortic banding, or sham procedure, on echocardiography at 7 weeks after surgery. Based on sonographic signal intensity analysis, a novel imaging algorithm provides an accessible, non-invasive measure that appears to differentiate normal left ventricular microstructure from myocardium exposed to chronic afterload stress. The algorithm may represent a particularly sensitive measure of the myocardial changes that occur early in the course of disease progression.     

The Influential Roles of Antibiotics Prophylaxis in Cirrhotic Patients with Peptic Ulcer Bleeding after Initial Endoscopic Treatments

The influential roles of antibiotic prophylaxis on cirrhotic patients with peptic ulcer bleeding are still not well documented. The purpose of this study is to clarify these influential roles and to identify the risk factors associated with rebleeding, bacterial infection and in-hospital mortality. A cross-sectional, chart review study was conducted on 210 cirrhotic patients with acute peptic ulcer hemorrhage who underwent therapeutic endoscopic procedures. Patients were divided into group A (with prophylactic intravenous ceftriaxone, n = 74) and group B (without antibiotics, n = 136). The outcomes were length of hospital days, prevention of infection, rebleeding rate and in-hospital mortality. Our results showed that more patients suffered from rebleeding and infection in group B than group A (31.6% vs. 5.4%; p<0.001 and 25% vs. 10.8%; p = 0.014 respectively). The risk factors for rebleeding were active alcoholism, unit of blood transfusion, Rockall score, model for end-stage liver disease score and antibiotic prophylaxis. The risk factors for infection were active alcoholism, Child-Pugh C, Rockall score and antibiotic prophylaxis. Rockall score was the predictive factor for in-hospital mortality. In conclusions, antibiotic prophylaxis in cirrhotic patients after endoscopic interventions for acute peptic ulcer hemorrhage reduced infections and rebleeding rate but not in-hospital mortality. Rockall score was the predictive factor of in-hospital mortality.     

Relationship of Circulating Soluble Urokinase Plasminogen Activator Receptor (suPAR) Levels to Disease Control in Asthma and Asthmatic Pregnancy

Asthma has a high burden of morbidity if not controlled and may frequently complicate pregnancy, posing a risk for pregnancy outcomes. Elevated plasma level of the inflammatory biomarker soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) is related to a worse prognosis in many conditions such as infectious, autoimmune, or pregnancy-related diseases; however the value of suPAR in asthma and asthmatic pregnancy is unknown. The present study aimed to investigate the suPAR, CRP and IL-6 levels in asthma (asthmatic non-pregnant, ANP; N = 38; female N = 27) and asthmatic pregnancy (AP; N = 15), compared to healthy non-pregnant controls (HNP; N = 29; female N = 19) and to healthy pregnant women (HP; N = 58). The relationship between suPAR levels and asthma control was also evaluated. The diagnostic efficacy of suPAR in asthma control was analyzed using ROC analysis. IL-6 and CRP levels were comparable in all study groups. Circulating suPAR levels were lower in HP and AP than in HNP and ANP subjects, respectively (2.01 [1.81–2.38] and 2.39 [2.07–2.69] vs. 2.60 [1.82–3.49] and 2.84 [2.33–3.72] ng/mL, respectively, p = 0.0001). suPAR and airway resistance correlated in ANP (r = 0.47, p = 0.004). ROC analysis of suPAR values in ANP patients with PEF above and below 80% yielded an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI: 0.57–0.92, p = 0.023) and with ACT total score above and below 20 an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.64–0.95, p = 0.006). The cut-off value of suPAR to discriminate between controlled and not controlled AP and ANP was 4.04 ng/mL. In conclusion, suPAR may help the objective assessment of asthma control, since it correlates with airway resistance and has good sensitivity in the detection of impaired asthma control. Decrease in circulating suPAR levels detected both in healthy and asthmatic pregnant women presumably represents pregnancy induced immune tolerance.     

A Working Memory Deficit among Dyslexic Readers with No Phonological Impairment as Measured Using the N-Back Task: An fNIR Study

Data indicated that dyslexic individuals exhibited difficulties on tasks involving Working Memory (WM). Previous studies have suggested that these deficits stem from impaired processing in the Phonological Loop (PL). The PL impairment was connected to poor phonological processing. However, recent data has pointed to the Central Executive (CE) system as another source of WM deficit in dyslexic readers. This opened a debate whether the WM deficit stems solely from PL or can also be seen as an outcome of poor CE processing. In an attempt to verify this question, the current study compared adult skilled and compensated dyslexic readers with no impairment of phonological skills. The participants’ PL and CE processing were tested by using the fNIR device attached to the frontal lobe and measured the changes in brain oxygen values when performing N-back task. As it was previously suggested, the N = 0 represented PL and N = 1 to 3 represent CE processing. It was hypothesized that dyslexic readers who show non-impaired phonological skills will exhibit deficits mainly in the CE subsystem and to a lesser extent in the PL. Results indicated that the two reading level groups did not differ in their accuracy and reaction times in any of the N-Back conditions. However, the dyslexic readers demonstrated significant lower maximum oxyHb values in the upper left frontal lobe, mainly caused due to a significant lower activity under the N = 1 condition. Significant task effects were found in the medial left hemisphere, and the high medial right hemisphere. In addition, significant correlations between fNIR-features, reading performance and speed of processing were found. The higher oxyHb values, the better reading and speed of processing performance obtained. The results of the current study support the hypothesis that at least for the group of dyslexics with non-impaired PL, WM deficit stems from poor CE activity.     

Metabolomic Derangements Are Associated with Mortality in Critically Ill Adult Patients

Objective

To identify metabolomic biomarkers predictive of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) mortality in adults.

Rationale

Comprehensive metabolomic profiling of plasma at ICU admission to identify biomarkers associated with mortality has recently become feasible.

Methods

We performed metabolomic profiling of plasma from 90 ICU subjects enrolled in the BWH Registry of Critical Illness (RoCI). We tested individual metabolites and a Bayesian Network of metabolites for association with 28-day mortality, using logistic regression in R, and the CGBayesNets Package in MATLAB. Both individual metabolites and the network were tested for replication in an independent cohort of 149 adults enrolled in the Community Acquired Pneumonia and Sepsis Outcome Diagnostics (CAPSOD) study.

Results

We tested variable metabolites for association with 28-day mortality. In RoCI, nearly one third of metabolites differed among ICU survivors versus those who died by day 28 (N = 57 metabolites, p<.05). Associations with 28-day mortality replicated for 31 of these metabolites (with p<.05) in the CAPSOD population. Replicating metabolites included lipids (N = 14), amino acids or amino acid breakdown products (N = 12), carbohydrates (N = 1), nucleotides (N = 3), and 1 peptide. Among 31 replicated metabolites, 25 were higher in subjects who progressed to die; all 6 metabolites that are lower in those who die are lipids. We used Bayesian modeling to form a metabolomic network of 7 metabolites associated with death (gamma-glutamylphenylalanine, gamma-glutamyltyrosine, 1-arachidonoylGPC(20:4), taurochenodeoxycholate, 3-(4-hydroxyphenyl) lactate, sucrose, kynurenine). This network achieved a 91% AUC predicting 28-day mortality in RoCI, and 74% of the AUC in CAPSOD (p<.001 in both populations).

Conclusion

Both individual metabolites and a metabolomic network were associated with 28-day mortality in two independent cohorts. Metabolomic profiling represents a valuable new approach for identifying novel biomarkers in critically ill patients.     

Smoking Modifies the Associated Increased Risk of Future Cardiovascular Disease by Genetic Variation on Chromosome 9p21

Aims

Genetic predisposition for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is likely to be modified by environmental exposures. We tested if the associated risk of CVD and CVD-mortality by the single nucleotide polymorphism rs4977574 on chromosome 9p21 is modified by life-style factors.

Methods and results

A total of 24944 middle-aged subjects (62% females) from the population-based Malmö-Diet-and-Cancer-Cohort were genotyped. Smoking, education and physical activity-levels were recorded. Subjects were followed for 15 years for incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD; N = 2309), ischemic stroke (N = 1253) and CVD-mortality (N = 1156). Multiplicative interactions between rs4977574 and life-style factors on endpoints were tested in Cox-regression-models. We observed an interaction between rs4977574 and smoking on incident CAD (P = 0.035) and CVD-mortality (P = 0.012). The hazard ratios (HR) per risk allele of rs4977574 were highest in never smokers (N = 9642) for CAD (HR = 1.26; 95% CI 1.13–1.40; P<0.001) and for CVD-mortality (HR = 1.40; 95% CI 1.20–1.63; P<0.001), whereas the risk increase by rs4977574 was attenuated in current smokers (N = 7000) for both CAD (HR = 1.05; 95%CI 0.95–1.16; P = 0.326) and CVD-mortality (HR = 1.08; 95%CI 0.94–1.23; P = 0.270). A meta-analysis supported the finding that the associated increased risk of CAD by the risk-allele was attenuated in smokers. Neither education nor physical activity-levels modified the associated risk of CAD, ischemic stroke and CVD mortality conferred by rs4977574.

Conclusion

Smoking may modify the associated risk of CAD and CVD-mortality conferred by genetic variation on chromosome 9p21. Whether the observed attenuation of the genetic risk reflects a pathophysiological mechanism or is a result of smoking being such a strong risk-factor that it may eliminate the associated genetic effect, requires further investigation.     

Repeated Measurement of the Intermountain Risk Score Enhances Prognostication for Mortality

Background

The Intermountain Risk Score (IMRS), composed of the complete blood count (CBC) and basic metabolic profile (BMP), predicts mortality and morbidity in medical and general populations. Whether longitudinal repeated measurement of IMRS is useful for prognostication is an important question for its clinical applicability.

Methods

Females (N = 5,698) and males (N = 5,437) with CBC and BMP panels measured 6 months to 2.0 years apart (mean 1.0 year) had baseline and follow-up IMRS computed. Survival analysis during 4.0±2.5 years (maximum 10 years) evaluated mortality (females: n = 1,255 deaths; males: n = 1,164 deaths) and incident major events (myocardial infarction, heart failure [HF], and stroke).

Results

Both baseline and follow-up IMRS (categorized as high-risk vs. low-risk) were independently associated with mortality (all p<0.001) in bivariable models. For females, follow-up IMRS had hazard ratio (HR) = 5.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.11, 6.64) and baseline IMRS had HR = 3.66 (CI = 2.94, 4.55). Among males, follow-up IMRS had HR = 4.28 (CI = 3.51, 5.22) and baseline IMRS had HR = 2.32 (CI = 1.91, 2.82). IMRS components such as RDW, measured at both time points, also predicted mortality. Baseline and follow-up IMRS strongly predicted incident HF in both genders.

Conclusions

Repeated measurement of IMRS at baseline and at about one year of follow-up were independently prognostic for mortality and incident HF among initially hospitalized patients. RDW and other CBC and BMP values were also predictive of outcomes. Further research should evaluate the utility of IMRS as a tool for clinical risk adjustment.     

Reappraisal of Metformin Efficacy in the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

Background

The UK Prospective Diabetes Study showed that metformin decreases mortality compared to diet alone in overweight patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Since then, it has been the first-line treatment in overweight patients with type 2 diabetes. However, metformin-sulphonylurea bitherapy may increase mortality.

Methods and Findings

This meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials evaluated metformin efficacy (in studies of metformin versus diet alone, versus placebo, and versus no treatment; metformin as an add-on therapy; and metformin withdrawal) against cardiovascular morbidity or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane database. Primary end points were all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death. Secondary end points included all myocardial infarctions, all strokes, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, leg amputations, and microvascular complications. Thirteen randomised controlled trials (13,110 patients) were retrieved; 9,560 patients were given metformin, and 3,550 patients were given conventional treatment or placebo. Metformin did not significantly affect the primary outcomes all-cause mortality, risk ratio (RR) = 0.99 (95% CI: 0.75 to 1.31), and cardiovascular mortality, RR = 1.05 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.64). The secondary outcomes were also unaffected by metformin treatment: all myocardial infarctions, RR = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.74 to 1.09); all strokes, RR = 0.76 (95% CI: 0.51 to 1.14); heart failure, RR = 1.03 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.59); peripheral vascular disease, RR = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.46 to 1.78); leg amputations, RR = 1.04 (95% CI: 0.44 to 2.44); and microvascular complications, RR = 0.83 (95% CI: 0.59 to 1.17). For all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, there was significant heterogeneity when including the UK Prospective Diabetes Study subgroups (I ² = 41% and 59%). There was significant interaction with sulphonylurea as a concomitant treatment for myocardial infarction (p = 0.10 and 0.02, respectively).

Conclusions

Although metformin is considered the gold standard, its benefit/risk ratio remains uncertain. We cannot exclude a 25% reduction or a 31% increase in all-cause mortality. We cannot exclude a 33% reduction or a 64% increase in cardiovascular mortality. Further studies are needed to clarify this situation. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Antibody Maturation and Viral Diversification in HIV-Infected Women

Introduction

The Post-exposure Prophylaxis in Infants (PEPI)-Malawi trial evaluated infant antiretroviral regimens for prevention of post-natal HIV transmission. A multi-assay algorithm (MAA) that includes the BED capture immunoassay, an avidity assay, CD4 cell count, and viral load was used to identify women who were vs. were not recently infected at the time of enrollment (MAA recent, N = 73; MAA non-recent, N = 2,488); a subset of the women in the MAA non-recent group known to have been HIV infected for at least 2 years before enrollment (known non-recent, N = 54). Antibody maturation and viral diversification were examined in these women.

Methods

Samples collected at enrollment (N = 2,561) and 12–24 months later (N = 1,306) were available for serologic analysis using the BED and avidity assays. A subset of those samples was used for analysis of viral diversity, which was performed using a high resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay. Viral diversity analysis was performed using all available samples from women in the MAA recent group (61 enrollment samples, 38 follow-up samples) and the known non-recent group (43 enrollment samples, 22 follow-up samples). Diversity data from PEPI-Malawi were also compared to similar data from 169 adults in the United States (US) with known recent infection (N = 102) and known non-recent infection (N = 67).

Results

In PEPI-Malawi, results from the BED and avidity assays increased over time in the MAA recent group, but did not change significantly in the MAA non-recent group. At enrollment, HIV diversity was lower in the MAA recent group than in the known non-recent group. HRM diversity assay results from women in PEPI-Malawi were similar to those from adults in the US with known duration of HIV infection.

Conclusions

Antibody maturation and HIV diversification patterns in African women provide additional support for use of the MAA to identify populations with recent HIV infection.     

Incidence and Characteristics of Injuries during the 2010 FELDA/FAM National Futsal League in Malaysia

Objective

In Malaysia, futsal is a popular sport played by individuals across all ages and genders. Despite its popularity, information on futsal related injury in Malaysia is not available. The purpose of this study is to examine the injury incidence and injury patterns among amateur men and women futsal players in Malaysia.

Methods

Players reported injury to the tournament medical team during the FELDA/FAM National Futsal League 2010 were interviewed and assessed by a Sports Medicine registrar. Player''s socio-demographic profiles and information about the injury were documented in the injury report form adapted from medical report form used by FIFA: Medical Assessment and Research Centre (F-Marc).

Results

A total of 86 injuries were reported from 141 matches, equivalent to an incidence of 91.5 injuries per 1000 player hours (95% CI 72.2 to 110.8), or 61.0 injuries per 1000 player matches (95% CI 48.1 to 73.9). Most were minor injuries resulted from contact with another player. Injuries often involved the lower extremity (44%) followed by the trunk (14%) and the upper limb (13%). Ankle (n = 7; 39%) and knee (n = 6; 33%) sprains were the most prevalent diagnoses of time-loss injuries. A significant association between time-loss and type of injury was found χ ² (1,N = 86) = 3.99, p = 0.04. In addition, time-loss injury was significantly associated with playing surface χ ² (1,N = 86) = 10.11, p = 0.018.

Conclusion

The injury rate during the FELDA/FAM National Amateur Futsal Men''s League in Malaysia was lower compared with previous Futsal World Cups competition. Most injuries resulted from contact with another player were minor and did not lead to time-loss from participation. Time-loss injury was significantly associated with type of injury and playing surface.     

Relationship of Circulating Hyaluronic Acid Levels to Disease Control in Asthma and Asthmatic Pregnancy

Uncontrolled asthma is a risk factor for pregnancy-related complications. Hyaluronic acid (HA), a potential peripheral blood marker of tissue fibrosis in various diseases, promotes eosinophil survival and plays a role in asthmatic airway inflammation as well as in physiological processes necessary to maintain normal pregnancy; however the level of circulating HA in asthma and asthmatic pregnancy is unknown. We investigated HA levels in asthmatic patients (N = 52; asthmatic pregnant (AP) N = 16; asthmatic non-pregnant (ANP) N = 36) and tested their relationship to asthma control. Serum HA level was lower in AP than in ANP patients (27 [24.7–31.55] vs. 37.4 [30.1–66.55] ng/mL, p = 0.006); the difference attenuated to a trend after its adjustment for patients’ age (p = 0.056). HA levels and airway resistance were positively (r = 0.467, p = 0.004), HA levels and Asthma Control Test (ACT) total score inversely (r = −0.437, p = 0.01) associated in ANP patients; these relationships remained significant even after their adjustments for age. The potential value of HA in the determination of asthma control was analyzed using ROC analysis which revealed that HA values discriminate patients with ACT total score ≥20 (controlled patients) and <20 (uncontrolled patients) with a 0.826 efficacy (AUC, 95% CI: 0.69–0.97, p = 0.001) when 37.4 ng/mL is used as cut-off value in ANP group, and with 0.78 efficacy (AUC, 95% CI: 0.65–0.92, p = 0.0009) in the whole asthmatic cohort. In conclusion circulating HA might be a marker of asthma control, as it correlates with airway resistance and has good sensitivity in the detection of impaired asthma control. Decrease of HA level in pregnancy may be the consequence of pregnancy induced immune tolerance.     

Differences in Reporting of Violence and Deliberate Self Harm Related Injuries to Health and Police Authorities,Rawalpindi, Pakistan

Background

The aim of study was to assess differences in reporting of violence and deliberate self harm (DSH) related injuries to police and emergency department (ED) in an urban town of Pakistan.

Methods/Principal Findings

Study setting was Rawalpindi city of 1.6 million inhabitants. Incidences of violence and DSH related injuries and deaths were estimated from record linkage of police and ED data. These were then compared to reported figures in both datasets. All persons reporting violence and DSH related injury to the police station, the public hospital''s ED, or both in Rawalpindi city from July 1, 2007 to June 30, 2008 were included. In Rawalpindi city, 1 016 intentional injury victims reported to police whereas 3 012 reported to ED. Comparing violence related fatality estimates (N = 56, 95% CI: 46–64), police reported 75.0% and ED reported 42.8% of them. Comparing violence related injury estimates (N = 7 990, 95% CI: 7 322–8 565), police reported 12.1% and ED reported 33.2% of them. Comparing DSH related fatality estimates (N = 17, 95% CI: 4–30), police reported 17.7% and ED reported 47.1% of them. Comparing DSH related injury estimates (N = 809, 95% CI: 101–1 516), police reported 0.5% and ED reported 39.9% of them.

Conclusion

In Rawalpindi city, police records were more likely to be complete for violence related deaths as compared to injuries due to same mechanism. As compared to ED, police reported DSH related injuries and deaths far less than those due to other types of violence.     

Reduced Fetal Telomere Length in Gestational Diabetes

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is an important complication of pregnancy that poses significant threats to women and their offspring. Telomere length shortens as cellular damage increases and is associated with metabolic diseases. Telomere length in fetal leucocytes was determined in 82 infants of women with GDM (N = 82) and 65 normal pregnant women (N = 65). Women with preeclampsia (N = 45) and gestational hypertension (N = 23) were also studied. In the GDM group, telomere length was significantly shorter than normal pregnancy (P = 0.028), but there were no significant differences in fetal telomere length between preeclampsia and normal pregnancy (P = 0.841) and between gestational hypertension and normal pregnancy (P = 0.561). Regression analysis revealed that fetal telomere length was significantly associated with intrauterine exposure to GDM (P = 0.027 after adjustment for maternal age, gestational age at delivery, birth weight and fetal gender). Shortened telomere length may increase the risk of metabolic diseases in adulthood of GDM offspring.     

Scoring Selection Criteria Including Total Tumour Volume and Pretransplant Percentage of Lymphocytes to Predict Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma after Liver Transplantation

Aim

The selection criteria for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to undergo liver transplantation should accurately predict posttransplant recurrence while not denying potential beneficiaries. In the present study, we attempted to identify risk factors associated with posttransplant recurrence and to expand the selection criteria.

Patients and Methods

Adult patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation between November 2004 and September 2012 at our centre were recruited into the current study (N = 241). Clinical and pathological data were retrospectively reviewed. Patients who died during the perioperative period or died of non-recurrence causes were excluded from this study (N = 25). All potential risk factors were analysed using uni- and multi-variate analyses.

Results

Sixty-one recipients of 216 qualified patients suffered from recurrence. Similar recurrence-free and long-term survival rates were observed between living donor liver transplant recipients (N = 60) and deceased donor liver transplant recipients (N = 156). Total tumour volume (TTV) and preoperative percentage of lymphocytes (L%) were two independent risk factors in the multivariate analysis. We propose a prognostic score model based on these two risk factors. Patients within our criteria achieved a similar recurrence-free survival to patients within the Milan criteria. Seventy-one patients who were beyond the Milan criteria but within our criteria also had comparable survival to patients within the Milan criteria.

Conclusions

TTV and L% are two risk factors that contribute to posttransplant recurrence. Selection criteria based on these two factors, which are proposed by our study, expanded the Milan criteria without increasing the risk of posttransplant recurrence.     

FDG PET and MRI in Logopenic Primary Progressive Aphasia versus Dementia of the Alzheimer’s Type

Objectives

The logopenic variant of primary progressive aphasia is an atypical clinical variant of Alzheimer’s disease which is typically characterized by left temporoparietal atrophy on magnetic resonance imaging and hypometabolism on F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. We aimed to characterize and compare patterns of atrophy and hypometabolism in logopenic primary progressive aphasia, and determine which brain regions and imaging modality best differentiates logopenic primary progressive aphasia from typical dementia of the Alzheimer’s type.

Methods

A total of 27 logopenic primary progressive aphasia subjects underwent fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography and volumetric magnetic resonance imaging. These subjects were matched to 27 controls and 27 subjects with dementia of the Alzheimer’s type. Patterns of atrophy and hypometabolism were assessed at the voxel and region-level using Statistical Parametric Mapping. Penalized logistic regression analysis was used to determine what combinations of regions best discriminate between groups.

Results

Atrophy and hypometabolism was observed in lateral temporoparietal and medial parietal lobes, left greater than right, and left frontal lobe in the logopenic group. The logopenic group showed greater left inferior, middle and superior lateral temporal atrophy (inferior p = 0.02; middle p = 0.007, superior p = 0.002) and hypometabolism (inferior p = 0.006, middle p = 0.002, superior p = 0.001), and less right medial temporal atrophy (p = 0.02) and hypometabolism (p<0.001), and right posterior cingulate hypometabolism (p<0.001) than dementia of the Alzheimer’s type. An age-adjusted penalized logistic model incorporating atrophy and hypometabolism achieved excellent discrimination (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve = 0.89) between logopenic and dementia of the Alzheimer’s type subjects, with optimal discrimination achieved using right medial temporal and posterior cingulate hypometabolism, left inferior, middle and superior temporal hypometabolism, and left superior temporal volume.

Conclusions

Patterns of atrophy and hypometabolism both differ between logopenic primary progressive aphasia and dementia of the Alzheimer’s type and both modalities provide excellent discrimination between groups.     

Costs of Inaction on Maternal Mortality: Qualitative Evidence of the Impacts of Maternal Deaths on Living Children in Tanzania

Background

Little is known about the interconnectedness of maternal deaths and impacts on children, beyond infants, or the mechanisms through which this interconnectedness is established. A study was conducted in rural Tanzania to provide qualitative insight regarding how maternal mortality affects index as well as other living children and to identify shared structural and social factors that foster high levels of maternal mortality and child vulnerabilities.

Methods and Findings

Adult family members of women who died due to maternal causes (N = 45) and key stakeholders (N = 35) participated in in-depth interviews. Twelve focus group discussions were also conducted (N = 83) among community leaders in three rural regions of Tanzania. Findings highlight the widespread impact of a woman’s death on her children’s health, education, and economic status, and, by inference, the roles that women play within their families in rural Tanzanian communities.

Conclusions

The full costs of failing to address preventable maternal mortality include intergenerational impacts on the nutritional status, health, and education of children, as well as the economic capacity of families. When setting priorities in a resource-poor, high maternal mortality country, such as Tanzania, the far-reaching effects that reducing maternal deaths can have on families and communities, as well as women’s own lives, should be considered.     

Chagas Cardiomiopathy: The Potential of Diastolic Dysfunction and Brain Natriuretic Peptide in the Early Identification of Cardiac Damage

Introduction

Chagas disease remains a major cause of mortality in several countries of Latin America and has become a potential public health problem in non-endemic countries as a result of migration flows. Cardiac involvement represents the main cause of mortality, but its diagnosis is still based on nonspecific criteria with poor sensitivity. Early identification of patients with cardiac involvement is desirable, since early treatment may improve prognosis. This study aimed to assess the role of diastolic dysfunction, abnormal myocardial strain and elevated brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) in the early identification of cardiac involvement in Chagas disease.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Fifty-four patients divided into 3 groups—group 1 (undetermined form: positive serology without ECG or 2D-echocardiographic abnormalities; N = 32), group 2 (typical ECG abnormalities of Chagas disease but normal 2D-echocardiography; N = 14), and group 3 (regional wall motion abnormalities, left ventricular [LV] end-diastolic diameter >55 mm or LV ejection fraction <50% on echocardiography; N = 8)—and 44 control subjects were studied. Patients with significant non-cardiac diseases, other heart diseases and previous treatment with benznidazol were excluded. The median age was 37 (20–58) years; 40% were men. BNP levels, longitudinal and radial myocardial strain and LV diastolic dysfunction increased progressively from group 1 to 3 (p for trend <0.01). Abnormal BNP levels (>37 pg/ml) were noted in 0%, 13%, 29% and 63% in controls and groups 1 to 3, respectively. Half of patients in the undetermined form had impaired relaxation patterns, whereas half of patients with ECG abnormalities suggestive of Chagas cardiomyopathy had normal diastolic function. In group 1, BNP levels were statistically higher in patients with diastolic dysfunction as compared to those with normal diastolic function (27±26 vs. 11±8 pg/ml, p = 0.03).

Conclusion/Significance

In conclusion, the combination of diastolic function and BNP measurement adds important information that could help to better stratify patients with Chagas disease.