Reconstruction of the Evolutionary Dynamics of the A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza Virus in Italy during the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Phases

The aim of this study was to reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of the A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus in Italy during two epidemic seasons (2009/2010 and 2010/2011) in the light of the forces driving the evolution of the virus. Nearly six thousands respiratory specimens were collected from patients with influenza-like illness within the framework of the Italian Influenza Surveillance Network, and the A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutinin (HA) gene was amplified and directly sequenced from 227 of these. Phylodynamic and phylogeographical analyses were made using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, and codon-specific positive selection acting on the HA coding sequence was evaluated. The global and local phylogenetic analyses showed that all of the Italian sequences sampled in the post-pandemic (2010/2011) season grouped into at least four highly significant Italian clades, whereas those of the pandemic season (2009/2010) were interspersed with isolates from other countries at the tree root. The time of the most recent common ancestor of the strains circulating in the pandemic season in Italy was estimated to be between the spring and summer of 2009, whereas the Italian clades of the post-pandemic season originated in the spring of 2010 and showed radiation in the summer/autumn of the same year; this was confirmed by a Bayesian skyline plot showing the biphasic growth of the effective number of infections. The local phylogeography analysis showed that the first season of infection originated in Northern Italian localities with high density populations, whereas the second involved less densely populated localities, in line with a gravity-like model of geographical dispersion. Two HA sites, codons 97 and 222, were under positive selection. In conclusion, the A(H1N1)pdm09 virus was introduced into Italy in the spring of 2009 by means of multiple importations. This was followed by repeated founder effects in the post-pandemic period that originated specific Italian clades.     

Transmission of the First Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Pandemic Wave in Australia Was Driven by Undetected Infections: Pandemic Response Implications

Background

During the first wave of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Victoria, Australia the rapid increase in notified cases and the high proportion with relatively mild symptoms suggested that community transmission was established before cases were identified. This lead to the hypothesis that those with low-level infections were the main drivers of the pandemic.

Methods

A deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered model was constructed to describe the first pandemic wave in a population structured by disease severity levels of asymptomatic, low-level symptoms, moderate symptoms and severe symptoms requiring hospitalisation. The model incorporated mixing, infectivity and duration of infectiousness parameters to calculate subgroup-specific reproduction numbers for each severity level.

Results

With stratum-specific effective reproduction numbers of 1.82 and 1.32 respectively, those with low-level symptoms, and those with asymptomatic infections were responsible for most of the transmission. The effective reproduction numbers for infections resulting in moderate symptoms and hospitalisation were less than one. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the importance of parameters relating to asymptomatic individuals and those with low-level symptoms.

Conclusions

Transmission of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was largely driven by those invisible to the health system. This has implications for control measures–such as distribution of antivirals to cases and contacts and quarantine/isolation–that rely on detection of infected cases. Pandemic plans need to incorporate milder scenarios, with a graded approach to implementation of control measures.     

Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Seroprevalence in Sweden before and after the Pandemic and the Vaccination Campaign in 2009

The immunity to pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Sweden before and after the outbreaks in 2009 and 2010 was investigated in a seroepidemiological study. Serum samples were collected at four time points: during 2007 (n = 1968), in October 2009 (n = 2218), in May 2010 (n = 2638) and in May 2011 (n = 2513) and were tested for hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibodies. In 2007, 4.9% of the population had pre-existing HI titres ≥40, with the highest prevalence (20.0%) in 15–24 year-olds, followed by ≥80 year-olds (9.3%). The overall prevalence of HI titres ≥40 had not changed significantly in October 2009. In May 2010 the prevalence had increased to 48.6% with the highest percentages in 5–14 year-olds (76.2%) andlowest in 75–79 year-olds (18.3%). One year later the prevalence of HI titres ≥40 had increased further to 52.2%. Children 5–14 years had the highest incidence of infection and vaccine uptake as well as the highest post-pandemic protective antibody levels. In contrast, the elderly had high vaccine uptake and low attack rate but low levels of protective antibodies, underlining that factors other than HI antibodies are involved in protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. However, for all age-groups the seroprevalence was stable or increasing between 2010 and 2011, indicating that both vaccine- and infection-induced antibodies were long-lived.     

Characteristics of Hospitalized Cases with Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 Infection during First Winter Season of Post-Pandemic in China

Background

Influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 (2009 H1N1) re-circulated as the predominant virus from January through February 2011 in China. National surveillance of 2009 H1N1 as a notifiable disease was maintained to monitor potential changes in disease severity from the previous season.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To describe the characteristics of hospitalized cases with 2009 H1N1 infection and analyze risk factors for severe illness during the 2010–2011winter season in China, we obtained surveillance data from hospitalized cases with 2009 H1N1 infection from November 2010 through May 2011, and reviewed medical records from 701 hospitalized cases. Age-standardized risk ratios were used to compare the age distribution of patients that were hospitalized and died due to 2009 H1N1 between the 2010–2011winter season to those during the 2009–2010 pandemic period. During the 2010–2011 winter season, children less than 5 years of age had the highest relative risk of hospitalization and death, followed by adults aged 65 years or older. Additionally, the relative risk of hospitalized cases aged 5–14 and 15–24 years was lower compared to children less than 5 years of age. During the winter season of 2010–2011, the proportions of adults aged 25 years or older for hospitalization and death were significantly higher than those during the 2009–2010 pandemic period. Being male, having a chronic medical condition, delayed hospital admission (≥3 days from onset) or delayed initiation of antiviral treatment (≥5 days from onset) were associated with severe illness among non-pregnant patients ≥2 years of age.

Conclusions/Significance

We observed a change in high risk groups for hospitalization for 2009 H1N1 during the winter months immediately following the pandemic period compared to the high risk groups identified during the pandemic period. Our nationally notifiable disease surveillance system enabled us to understand the evolving epidemiology of 2009 H1N1 infection after the pandemic period.     

Assessing Antigenic Drift of Seasonal Influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses

Under selective pressure from the host immune system, antigenic epitopes of influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) have continually evolved to escape antibody recognition, termed antigenic drift. We analyzed the genomes of influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strains circulating in Thailand between 2010 and 2014 and assessed how well the yearly vaccine strains recommended for the southern hemisphere matched them. We amplified and sequenced the HA gene of 120 A(H3N2) and 81 A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus samples obtained from respiratory specimens and calculated the perfect-match vaccine efficacy using the p_epitope model, which quantitated the antigenic drift in the dominant epitope of HA. Phylogenetic analysis of the A(H3N2) HA1 genes classified most strains into genetic clades 1, 3A, 3B, and 3C. The A(H3N2) strains from the 2013 and 2014 seasons showed very low to moderate vaccine efficacy and demonstrated antigenic drift from epitopes C and A to epitope B. Meanwhile, most A(H1N1)pdm09 strains from the 2012–2014 seasons belonged to genetic clades 6A, 6B, and 6C and displayed the dominant epitope mutations at epitopes B and E. Finally, the vaccine efficacy for A(H1N1)pdm09 (79.6–93.4%) was generally higher than that of A(H3N2). These findings further confirmed the accelerating antigenic drift of the circulating influenza A(H3N2) in recent years.     

Effectiveness of A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza Vaccine in Adults Recommended for Annual Influenza Vaccination

Introduction

Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we conducted a study in the adults belonging to the risk groups to assess the A(H1N1)pdm09 MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Methods

VE against influenza and/or pneumonia was assessed in the cohort study (n>25000), and vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza was assessed in a matched case-control study (16 pairs). Odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by using multivariate logistic regression; vaccine effectiveness was estimated as (1-odds ratio)*100%.

Results

Vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza and influenza and/or pneumonia was 98% (84–100%) and 33% (2–54%) respectively. The vaccine did not prevent influenza and/or pneumonia in 18–59 years old subjects, and was 49% (16–69%) effective in 60 years and older subjects.

Conclusions

Even though we cannot entirely rule out that selection bias, residual confounding and/or cross-protection has played a role, the present results indicate that the MF59-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine has been effective in preventing laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza and influenza and/or pneumonia, the latter notably in 60 years and older subjects.     

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and Cystic Fibrosis Lung Disease: A Systematic Meta-Analysis

Background

To systematically assess the literature published on the clinical impact of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 on cystic fibrosis (CF) patients.

Methods

An online search in PUBMED database was conducted. Original articles on CF patients with Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection were included. We analyzed incidence, symptoms, clinical course and treatment.

Results

Four surveys with a total of 202 CF patients infected by Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were included. The meta-analysis showed that hospitalisation rates were higher in CF patients compared to the general population. While general disease symptoms were comparable, the clinical course was more severe and case fatality rate (CFR) was higher in CF patients compared to asthmatics and the general population.

Conclusions

Evidence so far suggests that CF patients infected with Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 show increased morbidity and a higher CFR compared to patients with other chronic respiratory diseases and healthy controls. Particularly, CF patients with advanced stage disease seem to be more susceptible to severe lung disease. Accordingly, early antiviral and antibiotic treatment strategies are essential in CF patients. Preventive measures, including vaccination as well as hygiene measures during the influenza season, should be reinforced and improved in CF patients.     

Analysis of Adaptation Mutants in the Hemagglutinin of the Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus

Hemagglutinin is the major surface glycoprotein of influenza viruses. It participates in the initial steps of viral infection through receptor binding and membrane fusion events. The influenza pandemic of 2009 provided a unique scenario to study virus evolution. We performed molecular dynamics simulations with four hemagglutinin variants that appeared throughout the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. We found that variant 1 (S143G, S185T) likely arose to avoid immune recognition. Variant 2 (A134T), and variant 3 (D222E, P297S) had an increased binding affinity for the receptor. Finally, variant 4 (E374K) altered hemagglutinin stability in the vicinity of the fusion peptide. Variants 1 and 4 have become increasingly predominant, while variants 2 and 3 declined as the pandemic progressed. Our results show some of the different strategies that the influenza virus uses to adapt to the human host and provide an example of how selective pressure drives antigenic drift in viral proteins.     

Molecular Epidemiology of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses from Pakistan in 2009-2010

Background

In early 2009, a novel influenza A(H1N1) virus that emerged in Mexico and United States rapidly disseminated worldwide. The spread of this virus caused considerable morbidity with over 18000 recorded deaths. The new virus was found to be a reassortant containing gene segments from human, avian and swine influenza viruses.

Methods/Results

The first case of human infection with A(H1N1)pdm09 in Pakistan was detected on 18^th June 2009. Since then, 262 laboratory-confirmed cases have been detected during various outbreaks with 29 deaths (as of 31^st August 2010). The peak of the epidemic was observed in December with over 51% of total respiratory cases positive for influenza. Representative isolates from Pakistan viruses were sequenced and analyzed antigenically. Sequence analysis of genes coding for surface glycoproteins HA and NA showed high degree of high levels of sequence identity with corresponding genes of regional viruses circulating South East Asia. All tested viruses were sensitive to Oseltamivir in the Neuraminidase Inhibition assays.

Conclusions

Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses from Pakistan form a homogenous group of viruses. Their HA genes belong to clade 7 and show antigenic profile similar to the vaccine strain A/California/07/2009. These isolates do not show any amino acid changes indicative of high pathogenicity and virulence. It is imperative to continue monitoring of these viruses for identification of potential variants of high virulence or drug resistance.     

The Lao Experience in Deploying Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Vaccine: Lessons Made Relevant in Preparing for Present Day Pandemic Threats

The Lao PDR, as did most countries of the Mekong Region, embarked on a pandemic vaccine initiative to counter the threat posed by influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. Overall, estimated vaccine coverage of the Lao population was 14%, with uptake in targeted health care workers and pregnant women 99% and 41%, respectively. Adverse Events Following Immunization accounted for only 6% of survey driven, reported vaccination experiences, with no severe consequences or deaths. Public acceptability of the vaccine campaign was high (98%). Challenges to vaccine deployment included: 1) no previous experience in fielding a seasonal influenza vaccine, 2) safety and efficacy concerns, and 3) late arrival of vaccine 10 months into the pandemic. The Lao success in surmounting these hurdles was in large measure attributed to the oversight assigned the National Immunization Program, and national sensitivities in responding to the avian influenza A(H5N1) crisis in the years leading up to the pandemic. The Lao “lessons learned” from pandemic vaccine deployment are made even more relevant four years on, given the many avian influenza strains circulating in the region, all with pandemic potential.     

Mass Spectrometry-Based Comparative Sequence Analysis for the Genetic Monitoring of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus

The pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus (pH1N1) contains novel gene segments of zoonotic origin that lack virulence and antiviral resistance markers. We aimed to evaluate the applicability and accuracy of mass spectrometry-based comparative sequence analysis (MSCSA) to detect genetic mutations associated with increased virulence or antiviral resistance in pH1N1. During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, routine surveillance specimens and clinical antiviral resistance monitoring specimens were analyzed. Routine surveillance specimens obtained from 70 patients with pH1N1 infection were evaluated for mutations associated with increased virulence (PB1-F2, PB2 and NS1 genes) or antiviral resistance (neuraminidase gene, NA) using MSCSA and Sanger sequencing. MSCSA and Sanger sequencing results revealed a high concordance (nucleotides >99%, SNPs ∼94%). Virulence or resistance markers were not detected in routine surveillance specimens: all identified SNPs encoded for silent mutations or non-relevant amino acid substitutions. In a second study population, the presence of H275Y oseltamivir resistant virus was identified by real-time PCR in 19 of 35 clinical antiviral resistance monitoring specimens obtained from 4 immunocompromised patients with ≥14 days prolonged pH1N1 excretion. MSCSA detected H275Y in 24% (4/19) of positive specimens and Sanger sequencing in 89% (17/19). MSCSA only detected H275Y when the mutation was dominant in the analyzed specimens. In conclusion, MSCSA may be used as a rapid screening tool during molecular surveillance of pH1N1. The low sensitivity for the detection of H275Y mutation in mixed viral populations suggests that MSCSA is not suitable for antiviral resistance monitoring in the clinical setting.     

A Large Proportion of the Mexican Population Remained Susceptible to A(H1N1)pdm09 Infection One Year after the Emergence of 2009 Influenza Pandemic

Background

The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic initially affected Mexico from April 2009 to July 2010. By August 2010, a fourth of the population had received the monovalent vaccine against the pandemic virus (A(H1N1)pdm09). To assess the proportion of the Mexican population who remained potentially susceptible to infection throughout the summer of 2010, we estimated the population seroprevalence to A(H1N1)pdm09 in a serosurvey of blood donors.

Methods

We evaluated baseline cross-reactivity to the pandemic strain and set the threshold for seropositivity using pre-pandemic (2005–2008) stored serum samples and sera from confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 infected individuals. Between June and September 2010, a convenience sample serosurvey of adult blood donors, children, and adolescents was conducted in six states of Mexico. Sera were tested by the microneutralization (MN) and hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays, and regarded seropositive if antibody titers were equal or exceeded 1:40 for MN and 1:20 for HI. Age-standardized seroprevalence were calculated using the 2010 National Census population.

Results

Sera from 1,484 individuals were analyzed; 1,363 (92%) were blood donors, and 121 (8%) children or adolescents aged ≤19 years. Mean age (standard deviation) was 31.4 (11.5) years, and 276 (19%) were women. A total of 516 (35%) participants declared history of influenza vaccination after April 2009. The age-standardized seroprevalence to A(H1N1)pdm09 was 48% by the MN and 41% by the HI assays, respectively. The youngest quintile, aged 1 to 22 years, had the highest the seroprevalence; 61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 56, 66%) for MN, and 56% (95% CI: 51, 62%) for HI.

Conclusions

Despite high transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09 observed immediately after its emergence and extensive vaccination, over a half of the Mexican population remained potentially susceptible to A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. Subsequent influenza seasons with high transmission of A(H1N1)pdm09, as 2011–2012 and 2013–2014, are compatible with these findings.     

Functional Balance between the Hemagglutinin and Neuraminidase of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 HA D222 Variants

D222G/N substitutions in A(H1N1)pdm09 hemagglutinin may be associated with increased binding of viruses causing low respiratory tract infections and human pathogenesis. We assessed the impact of such substitutions on the balance between hemagglutinin binding and neuraminidase cleavage, viral growth and in vivo virulence.Seven viruses with differing polymorphisms at codon 222 (2 with D, 3 G, 1 N and 1 E) were isolated from patients and characterized with regards hemagglutinin binding affinity (Kd) to α-2,6 sialic acid (SAα-2,6) and SAα-2,3 and neuraminidase enzymatic properties (Km, Ki and Vmax). The hemagglutination assay was used to quantitatively assess the balance between hemagglutinin binding and neuraminidase cleavage. Viral growth properties were compared in vitro in MDCK-SIAT1 cells and in vivo in BALB/c mice. Compared with D222 variants, the binding affinity of G222 variants was greater for SAα-2,3 and lower for SAα-2,6, whereas that of both E222 and N222 variants was greater for both SAα-2,3 and SAα-2,6. Mean neuraminidase activity of D222 variants (16.0 nmol/h/10⁶) was higher than that of G222 (1.7 nmol/h/10⁶ viruses) and E/N222 variants (4.4 nmol/h/10⁶ viruses). The hemagglutination assay demonstrated a deviation from functional balance by E222 and N222 variants that displayed strong hemagglutinin binding but weak neuraminidase activity. This deviation impaired viral growth in MDCK-SIAT1 cells but not infectivity in mice. All strains but one exhibited low infectious dose in mice (MID50) and replicated to high titers in the lung; this D222 strain exhibited a ten-fold higher MID50 and replicated to low titers. Hemagglutinin-neuraminidase balance status had a greater impact on viral replication than hemagglutinin affinity strength, at least in vitro, thus emphasizing the importance of an optimal balance for influenza virus fitness. The mouse model is effective in assessing binding to SAα-2,3 but cannot differentiate SAα-2,3- from SAα-2,6- preference, nor estimate the hemagglutinin-neuraminidase balance in A(H1N1)pdm09 strains.     

Oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus in southern Brazil

The neuraminidase (NA) genes of A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza virus isolates from 306 infected patients were analysed. The circulation of oseltamivir-resistant viruses in Brazil has not been reported previously. Clinical samples were collected in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) from 2009-2011 and two NA inhibitor-resistant mutants were identified, one in 2009 (H275Y) and the other in 2011 (S247N). This study revealed a low prevalence of resistant viruses (0.8%) with no spread of the resistant mutants throughout RS.     

Serological Response of Patients with Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09-Associated Pneumonia: An Observational Study

Background

Little is known about the dynamics or magnitude of antibody response in patients with influenza A (H1N1) pdm09-associated pneumonia. We described and compared the antibody response to influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 in patients with and without pneumonia.

Methods

We collected serum samples and determined antibody titers by the hemagglutination inhibition (HI) and microneutralization (mNT) assays from patients with RT-PCR confirmed influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus at baseline, 1, 2 and 6 months after onset of illness.

Results

Fifty-nine patients were enrolled, 45 (76.3%) were between 15 and 60 years of age, 49 (83.1%) were hospitalized and 25 (42.4%) had complications with pneumonia. Ninety-four percent of patients had HI titers ≥ 1: 40 and 90% had mNT titers ≥ 1: 160 at 2 months after illness. Geometric mean titers (GMT) of HI and mNT increased significantly (p<0.001) between baseline and months 1 or 2, then declined significantly (p<0.001) at month 6 by the HI assay, but dropped to an insignificant level (p=0.24) by the mNT assay. The mNT-GMT was at least twice as high as corresponding HI antibodies over a 6 month period. The GMT of HI and mNT in those with pneumonia (1 mo) peaked earlier than that of those without pneumonia (2 mo). When adjusted by age and gender, those with pneumonia had a higher HI-GMT than those without pneumonia at 1 month (264 vs. 117, p=0.007), 2 months (212 vs. 159, p=0.013), and 6 months (160 vs. 82, p=0.018).

Conclusions

The patients recovered from influenza A (H1N1) pdm09-associated pneumonia, clearly developed an earlier and more robust antibody response until 6 months after onset of illness. The results in our study are useful to determine an appropriate donor and timing to obtain convalescent plasma for adjunctive treatment of seriously ill patients with pandemic H1N1 influenza.     

Outcomes of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus Infection: Results from Two International Cohort Studies

Background

Data from prospectively planned cohort studies on risk of major clinical outcomes and prognostic factors for patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus are limited. In 2009, in order to assess outcomes and evaluate risk factors for progression of illness, two cohort studies were initiated: FLU 002 in outpatients and FLU 003 in hospitalized patients.

Methods and Findings

Between October 2009 and December 2012, adults with influenza-like illness (ILI) were enrolled; outpatients were followed for 14 days and inpatients for 60 days. Disease progression was defined as hospitalization and/or death for outpatients, and hospitalization for >28 days, transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) if enrolled from general ward, and/or death for inpatients. Infection was confirmed by RT-PCR. 590 FLU 002 and 392 FLU 003 patients with influenza A (H1N1)pdm09 were enrolled from 81 sites in 17 countries at 2 days (IQR 1–3) and 6 days (IQR 4–10) following ILI onset, respectively. Disease progression was experienced by 29 (1 death) outpatients (5.1%; 95% CI: 3.4–7.2%) and 80 inpatients [death (32), hospitalization >28 days (43) or ICU transfer (20)] (21.6%; 95% CI: 17.5–26.2%). Disease progression (death) for hospitalized patients was 53.1% (26.6%) and 12.8% (3.8%), respectively, for those enrolled in the ICU and general ward. In pooled analyses for both studies, predictors of disease progression were age, longer duration of symptoms at enrollment and immunosuppression. Patients hospitalized during the pandemic period had a poorer prognosis than in subsequent seasons.

Conclusions

Patients with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, particularly when requiring hospital admission, are at high risk for disease progression, especially if they are older, immunodeficient, or admitted late in infection. These data reinforce the need for international trials of novel treatment strategies for influenza infection and serve as a reminder of the need to monitor the severity of seasonal and pandemic influenza epidemics globally.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifiers: FLU 002- {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01056354","term_id":"NCT01056354"}}NCT01056354, FLU 003- {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT01056185","term_id":"NCT01056185"}}NCT01056185.