AS03 adjuvanted AH1N1 vaccine associated with an abrupt increase in the incidence of childhood narcolepsy in Finland

Background

Narcolepsy is a chronic sleep disorder with strong genetic predisposition causing excessive daytime sleepiness and cataplexy. A sudden increase in childhood narcolepsy was observed in Finland soon after pandemic influenza epidemic and vaccination with ASO3-adjuvanted Pandemrix. No increase was observed in other age groups.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study. From January 1, 2009 to December 31, 2010 we retrospectively followed the cohort of all children living in Finland and born from January 1991 through December 2005. Vaccination data of the whole population was obtained from primary health care databases. All new cases with assigned ICD-10 code of narcolepsy were identified and the medical records reviewed by two experts to classify the diagnosis of narcolepsy according to the Brighton collaboration criteria. Onset of narcolepsy was defined as the first documented contact to health care because of excessive daytime sleepiness. The primary follow-up period was restricted to August 15, 2010, the day before media attention on post-vaccination narcolepsy started.

Findings

Vaccination coverage in the cohort was 75%. Of the 67 confirmed cases of narcolepsy, 46 vaccinated and 7 unvaccinated were included in the primary analysis. The incidence of narcolepsy was 9.0 in the vaccinated as compared to 0.7/100,000 person years in the unvaccinated individuals, the rate ratio being 12.7 (95% confidence interval 6.1–30.8). The vaccine-attributable risk of developing narcolepsy was 1∶16,000 vaccinated 4 to 19-year-olds (95% confidence interval 1∶13,000–1∶21,000).

Conclusions

Pandemrix vaccine contributed to the onset of narcolepsy among those 4 to 19 years old during the pandemic influenza in 2009–2010 in Finland. Further studies are needed to determine whether this observation exists in other populations and to elucidate potential underlying immunological mechanism. The role of the adjuvant in particular warrants further research before drawing conclusions about the use of adjuvanted pandemic vaccines in the future.     

Polymorphism Located between CPT1B and CHKB,and HLA-DRB1*1501-DQB1*0602 Haplotype Confer Susceptibility to CNS Hypersomnias (Essential Hypersomnia)

Background

SNP rs5770917 located between CPT1B and CHKB, and HLA-DRB1*1501-DQB1*0602 haplotype were previously identified as susceptibility loci for narcolepsy with cataplexy. This study was conducted in order to investigate whether these genetic markers are associated with Japanese CNS hypersomnias (essential hypersomnia: EHS) other than narcolepsy with cataplexy.

Principal Findings

EHS was significantly associated with SNP rs5770917 (P_allele = 3.6×10⁻³; OR = 1.56; 95% c.i.: 1.12–2.15) and HLA-DRB1*1501-DQB1*0602 haplotype (P _positivity = 9.2×10⁻¹¹; OR = 3.97; 95% c.i.: 2.55–6.19). No interaction between the two markers (SNP rs5770917 and HLA-DRB1*1501-DQB1*0602 haplotype) was observed in EHS.

Conclusion

CPT1B, CHKB and HLA are candidates for susceptibility to CNS hypersomnias (EHS), as well as narcolepsy with cataplexy.     

Intent to Receive Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Vaccine,Compliance with Social Distancing and Sources of Information in NC, 2009

Background

Public adherence to influenza vaccination recommendations has been low, particularly among younger adults and children under 2, despite the availability of safe and effective seasonal vaccine. Intention to receive 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine has been estimated to be 50% in select populations. This report measures knowledge of and intention to receive pandemic vaccine in a population-based setting, including target groups for seasonal and H1N1 influenza.

Methodology and Principal Findings

On August 28–29, 2009, we conducted a population-based survey in 2 counties in North Carolina. The survey used the 30×7 two-stage cluster sampling methodology to identify 210 target households. Prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated. Knowledge of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) vaccine was high, with 165 (80%) aware that a vaccine was being prepared. A total of 133 (64%) respondents intended to receive pandemic vaccine, 134 (64%) intended to receive seasonal vaccine, and 109 (53%) intended to receive both. Reporting great concern about H1N1 infection (PR 1.55; 95%CI: 1.30, 1.85), receiving seasonal influenza vaccine in 2008–09 (PR 1.47; 95%CI: 1.18, 1.82), and intending to receive seasonal influenza vaccine in 2009–10 (PR 1.27; 95%CI: 1.14, 1.42) were associated with intention to receive pandemic vaccine. Not associated were knowledge of vaccine, employment, having children under age 18, gender, race/ethnicity and age. Reasons cited for not intending to get vaccinated include not being at risk for infection, concerns about vaccine side effects and belief that illness caused by pandemic H1N1 would be mild. Forty-five percent of households with children under 18 and 65% of working adults reported ability to comply with self-isolation at home for 7–10 days if recommended by authorities.

Conclusions and Significance

This is the first report of a population based rapid assessment used to assess knowledge and intent to receive pandemic vaccine in a community sample. Intention to receive pandemic and seasonal vaccines was higher than previously published reports. To reach persons not intending to receive pandemic vaccine, public health communications should focus on the perceived risk of infection and concerns about vaccine safety.     

Responding to Vaccine Safety Signals during Pandemic Influenza: A Modeling Study

Background

Managing emerging vaccine safety signals during an influenza pandemic is challenging. Federal regulators must balance vaccine risks against benefits while maintaining public confidence in the public health system.

Methods

We developed a multi-criteria decision analysis model to explore regulatory decision-making in the context of emerging vaccine safety signals during a pandemic. We simulated vaccine safety surveillance system capabilities and used an age-structured compartmental model to develop potential pandemic scenarios. We used an expert-derived multi-attribute utility function to evaluate potential regulatory responses by combining four outcome measures into a single measure of interest: 1) expected vaccination benefit from averted influenza; 2) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated febrile seizures; 3) expected vaccination risk from vaccine-associated Guillain-Barre Syndrome; and 4) expected change in vaccine-seeking behavior in future influenza seasons.

Results

Over multiple scenarios, risk communication, with or without suspension of vaccination of high-risk persons, were the consistently preferred regulatory responses over no action or general suspension when safety signals were detected during a pandemic influenza. On average, the expert panel valued near-term vaccine-related outcomes relative to long-term projected outcomes by 3∶1. However, when decision-makers had minimal ability to influence near-term outcomes, the response was selected primarily by projected impacts on future vaccine-seeking behavior.

Conclusions

The selected regulatory response depends on how quickly a vaccine safety signal is identified relative to the peak of the pandemic and the initiation of vaccination. Our analysis suggested two areas for future investment: efforts to improve the size and timeliness of the surveillance system and behavioral research to understand changes in vaccine-seeking behavior.     

Household Transmission of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic Seasons

Background

The transmission of influenza viruses occurs person to person and is facilitated by contacts within enclosed environments such as households. The aim of this study was to evaluate secondary attack rates and factors associated with household transmission of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in the pandemic and post-pandemic seasons.

Methods

During the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 influenza seasons, 76 sentinel physicians in Navarra, Spain, took nasopharyngeal and pharyngeal swabs from patients diagnosed with influenza-like illness. A trained nurse telephoned households of those patients who were laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 to ask about the symptoms, risk factors and vaccination status of each household member.

Results

In the 405 households with a patient laboratory-confirmed for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 977 susceptible contacts were identified; 16% of them (95% CI 14–19%) presented influenza-like illness and were considered as secondary cases. The secondary attack rate was 14% in 2009–2010 and 19% in the 2010–2011 season (p = 0.049), an increase that mainly affected persons with major chronic conditions. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk of being a secondary case was higher in the 2010–2011 season than in the 2009–2010 season (adjusted odds ratio: 1.72; 95% CI 1.17–2.54), and in children under 5 years, with a decreasing risk in older contacts. Influenza vaccination was associated with lesser incidence of influenza-like illness near to statistical significance (adjusted odds ratio: 0.29; 95% CI 0.08–1.03).

Conclusion

The secondary attack rate in households was higher in the second season than in the first pandemic season. Children had a greater risk of infection. Preventive measures should be maintained in the second pandemic season, especially in high-risk persons.     

Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009

Background

The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic has required decision-makers to act in the face of substantial uncertainties. Simulation models can be used to project the effectiveness of mitigation strategies, but the choice of the best scenario may change depending on model assumptions and uncertainties.

Methods

We developed a simulation model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a structured population using demographic data from a medium-sized city in Ontario and epidemiologic influenza pandemic data. We projected the attack rate under different combinations of vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug strategies (with corresponding “trigger” conditions). To assess the impact of epidemiologic and program uncertainty, we used “combinatorial uncertainty analysis.” This permitted us to identify the general features of public health response programs that resulted in the lowest attack rates.

Results

Delays in vaccination of 30 days or more reduced the effectiveness of vaccination in lowering the attack rate. However, pre-existing immunity in 15% or more of the population kept the attack rates low, even if the whole population was not vaccinated or vaccination was delayed. School closure was effective in reducing the attack rate, especially if applied early in the outbreak, but this is not necessary if vaccine is available early or if pre-existing immunity is strong.

Interpretation

Early action, especially rapid vaccine deployment, is disproportionately effective in reducing the attack rate. This finding is particularly important given the early appearance of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in many schools in September 2009.Jurisdictions in the northern hemisphere are bracing for a “fall wave” of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.^1–3 Decision-makers face uncertainty, not just with respect to epidemiologic characteristics of the virus,⁴ but also program uncertainties related to feasibility, timeliness and effectiveness of mitigation strategies.⁵ Policy decisions must be made against this backdrop of uncertainty. However, the effectiveness of any mitigation strategy generally depends on the epidemiologic characteristics of the pathogen as well as the other mitigation strategies adopted. Mathematical models can project strategy effectiveness under hypothetical epidemiologic and program scenarios.^6–12 In the case of pandemic influenza, models have been used to assess the effectiveness of school closure⁷ and optimal use of antiviral drug^6,9,10 and vaccination strategies.⁸ However, model projections can be sensitive to input parameter values; thus, data uncertainty is an issue.¹³ Uncertainty analysis can help address the impact of uncertainties on model predictions but is often underutilized.¹³In this article, we present a simulation model of pandemic influenza transmission and mitigation in a population. This model projects the overall attack rate (percentage of people infected) during an outbreak. We introduce a formal method of uncertainty analysis that has not previously been applied to pandemic influenza, and we use this method to assess the impact of epidemiologic and program uncertainties. The model is intended to address the following policy questions that have been raised during the 2009 influenza pandemic: What is the impact of delayed vaccine delivery on attack rates? Can attack rates be substantially reduced without closing schools? What is the impact of pre-existing immunity from spring and summer 2009? We addressed these questions using a simulation model that projects the impact of vaccination, school closure and antiviral drug treatment strategies on attack rates.     

Application of Probabilistic Multiple-Bias Analyses to a Cohort- and a Case-Control Study on the Association between Pandemrix?and Narcolepsy

Background

An increase in narcolepsy cases was observed in Finland and Sweden towards the end of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Preliminary observational studies suggested a temporal link with the pandemic influenza vaccine Pandemrix™, leading to a number of additional studies across Europe. Given the public health urgency, these studies used readily available retrospective data from various sources. The potential for bias in such settings was generally acknowledged. Although generally advocated by key opinion leaders and international health authorities, no systematic quantitative assessment of the potential joint impact of biases was undertaken in any of these studies.

Methods

We applied bias-level multiple-bias analyses to two of the published narcolepsy studies: a pediatric cohort study from Finland and a case-control study from France. In particular, we developed Monte Carlo simulation models to evaluate a potential cascade of biases, including confounding by age, by indication and by natural H1N1 infection, selection bias, disease- and exposure misclassification. All bias parameters were evidence-based to the extent possible.

Results

Given the assumptions used for confounding, selection bias and misclassification, the Finnish rate ratio of 13.78 (95% CI: 5.72–28.11) reduced to a median value of 6.06 (2.5^th- 97.5^th percentile: 2.49–15.1) and the French odds ratio of 5.43 (95% CI: 2.6–10.08) to 1.85 (2.5^th—97.5^th percentile: 0.85–4.08).

Conclusion

We illustrate multiple-bias analyses using two studies on the Pandemrix^™-narcolepsy association and advocate their use to better understand the robustness of study findings. Based on our multiple-bias models, the observed Pandemrix^™-narcolepsy association consistently persists in the Finnish study. For the French study, the results of our multiple-bias models were inconclusive.     

Prevalence of seroprotection against the pandemic (H1N1) virus after the 2009 pandemic

Background

Before pandemic (H1N1) 2009, less than 10% of serum samples collected from all age groups in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada, showed seroprotection against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, except those from very elderly people. We reassessed this profile of seroprotection by age in the same region six months after the fall 2009 pandemic and vaccination campaign.

Methods

We evaluated 100 anonymized serum samples per 10-year age group based on convenience sampling. We measured levels of antibody against the pandemic virus by hemagglutination inhibition and microneutralization assays. We assessed geometric mean titres and the proportion of people with seroprotective antibody levels (hemagglutination inhibition titre ≥ 40). We performed sensitivity analyses to evaluate titre thresholds of 80, 20 and 10.

Results

Serum samples from 1127 people aged 9 months to 101 years were obtained. The overall age-standardized proportion of people with seroprotective antibody levels was 46%. A U-shaped age distribution was identified regardless of assay or titre threshold applied. Among those less than 20 years old and those 80 years and older, the prevalence of seroprotection was comparably high at about 70%. Seroprotection was 44% among those aged 20–49 and 30% among those 50–79 years. It was lowest among people aged 70–79 years (21%) and highest among those 90 years and older (88%).

Interpretation

We measured much higher levels of seroprotection after the 2009 pandemic compared than before the pandemic, with a U-shaped age distribution now evident. These findings, particularly the low levels of seroprotection among people aged 50–79 years, should be confirmed in other settings and closer to the influenza season.In a previous age-based survey of about 1000 anonymized serum samples collected before substantial pandemic (H1N1) 2009 activity in the Lower Mainland of the province of British Columbia, Canada, we found that less than 10% of children and adults under 70 years of age had seroprotective levels of antibody against the pandemic (H1N1) virus.¹ This proportion was slightly higher among people aged 70–79 years (27%) and substantially higher among those above 80 years of age (77%).¹The 2009 influenza pandemic and the broad and effective vaccination campaign introduced major changes to this population’s immune status. The first wave in the province, in the spring and summer months, was of limited activity and was followed by a second, more substantial and widespread wave in the fall that peaked during the last week of October and resolved by the end of 2009.² Meanwhile, a highly immunogenic adjuvanted vaccine was provided free of charge through a universal vaccination campaign that targeted all Canadians.³ Supply was limited initially, requiring sequenced rollout of the vaccine, starting with children under five years of age, pregnant women, and people under 65 years who had comorbidities.⁴ The uptake of the vaccine of about 35%–45% in the province overall^4–6 and 44% in the Lower Mainland (Dr. Monika Naus, BC Centre for Disease Control, Vancouver, BC: personal communication, 2010) was estimated to be moderate compared with rates of uptake in other provinces.To assess seroprotective antibody levels after the 2009 pandemic, we repeated our age-based survey of antibody levels against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in a further 1000 serum samples collected from people in the Lower Mainland in May and June 2010, more than six months after the last peak of the epidemic.     

Influenza Vaccination Guidelines and Vaccine Sales in Southeast Asia: 2008–2011

Background

Southeast Asia is a region with great potential for the emergence of a pandemic influenza virus. Global efforts to improve influenza surveillance in this region have documented the burden and seasonality of influenza viruses and have informed influenza prevention strategies, but little information exists about influenza vaccination guidelines and vaccine sales.

Methods

To ascertain the existence of influenza vaccine guidelines and define the scope of vaccine sales, we sent a standard three-page questionnaire to the ten member nations of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. We also surveyed three multinational manufacturers who supply influenza vaccines in the region.

Results

Vaccine sales in the private sector were <1000 per 100,000 population in the 10 countries. Five countries reported purchasing vaccine for use in the public sector. In 2011, Thailand had the highest combined reported rate of vaccine sales (10,333 per 100,000). In the 10 countries combined, the rate of private sector sales during 2010–2011 (after the A(H1N1)2009pdm pandemic) exceeded 2008 pre-pandemic levels. Five countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam) had guidelines for influenza vaccination but only two were consistent with global guidelines. Four recommended vaccination for health care workers, four for elderly persons, three for young children, three for persons with underlying disease, and two for pregnant women.

Conclusions

The rate of vaccine sales in Southeast Asia remains low, but there was a positive impact in sales after the A(H1N1)2009pdm pandemic. Low adherence to global vaccine guidelines suggests that more work is needed in the policy arena.     

Effectiveness of A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza Vaccine in Adults Recommended for Annual Influenza Vaccination

Introduction

Because of variability in published A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates, we conducted a study in the adults belonging to the risk groups to assess the A(H1N1)pdm09 MF59-adjuvanted influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Methods

VE against influenza and/or pneumonia was assessed in the cohort study (n>25000), and vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza was assessed in a matched case-control study (16 pairs). Odds ratios (OR) and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by using multivariate logistic regression; vaccine effectiveness was estimated as (1-odds ratio)*100%.

Results

Vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza and influenza and/or pneumonia was 98% (84–100%) and 33% (2–54%) respectively. The vaccine did not prevent influenza and/or pneumonia in 18–59 years old subjects, and was 49% (16–69%) effective in 60 years and older subjects.

Conclusions

Even though we cannot entirely rule out that selection bias, residual confounding and/or cross-protection has played a role, the present results indicate that the MF59-adjuvanted A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccine has been effective in preventing laboratory-confirmed A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza and influenza and/or pneumonia, the latter notably in 60 years and older subjects.     

Estimated cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic

Background

Hospitalization and lab confirmed cases of H1N1 have been reported during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic but these are not accurate measures of influenza incidence in the population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women in the province of Manitoba during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic.

Methods

Two panels of stored frozen serum specimens collected for routine prenatal screening were randomly selected for testing before (March 2009, n = 252) and after (August 2009, n = 296) the first wave of the pandemic. A standard hemagglutination inhibition assay was used to detect the presence of IgG antibodies against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus. The cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza was calculated as the difference between the point prevalence rates in the first and second panels.

Results

Of the specimens collected in March, 7.1% were positive for the IgG antibodies (serum antibody titre ≥ 1:40). The corresponding prevalence was 15.7% among the specimens collected in August. The difference indicated a cumulative incidence of 8.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.2%–13.7%). The rate differed geographically, the highest being in the northern regions (20.8%, 95% CI 7.9%–31.8%), as compared with 4.0% (95% CI 0.0%–11.9%) in Winnipeg and 8.9% (95% CI 0.0%–18.8%) in the rest of the province.

Interpretation

We estimated that the cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women in Manitoba during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic was 8.6%. It was 20.8% in the northern regions of the province.During the first wave of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009, the province of Manitoba was more severely affected than almost any other Canadian province.¹ Pregnant women in particular had higher rates of laboratory-confirmed infection and of severe illness.² However, the number of laboratory-confirmed cases is not an accurate measure of the incidence of influenza in the population. The number and geographic distribution of confirmed cases are influenced by differences in access to medical care, physicians’ practices and other factors.³We estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women in the province of Manitoba during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic. We did this by measuring the point seroprevalence in random samples of pregnant women presenting for routine prenatal screening before and after the first wave.     

No Serological Evidence of Influenza A H1N1pdm09 Virus Infection as a Contributing Factor in Childhood Narcolepsy after Pandemrix Vaccination Campaign in Finland

Background

Narcolepsy cataplexy syndrome, characterised by excessive daytime sleepiness and cataplexy, is strongly associated with a genetic marker, human leukocyte antigen (HLA) DQB1*06:02. A sudden increase in the incidence of childhood narcolepsy was observed after vaccination with AS03-adjuvanted Pandemrix influenza vaccine in Finland at the beginning of 2010. Here, we analysed whether the coinciding influenza A H1N1pdm pandemic contributed, together with the Pandemrix vaccination, to the increased incidence of childhood narcolepsy in 2010. The analysis was based on the presence or absence of antibody response against non-structural protein 1 (NS1) from H1N1pdm09 virus, which was not a component of Pandemrix vaccine.

Methods

Non-structural (NS) 1 proteins from recombinant influenza A/Udorn/72 (H3N2) and influenza A/Finland/554/09 (H1N1pdm09) viruses were purified and used in Western blot analysis to determine specific antibody responses in human sera. The sera were obtained from 45 patients who fell ill with narcolepsy after vaccination with AS03-adjuvanted Pandemrix at the end of 2009, and from controls.

Findings

Based on quantitative Western blot analysis, only two of the 45 (4.4%) Pandemrix-vaccinated narcoleptic patients showed specific antibody response against the NS1 protein from the H1N1pdm09 virus, indicating past infection with the H1N1pdm09 virus. Instead, paired serum samples from patients, who suffered from a laboratory confirmed H1N1pdm09 infection, showed high levels or diagnostic rises (96%) in H1N1pdm virus NS1-specific antibodies and very high cross-reactivity to H3N2 subtype influenza A virus NS1 protein.

Conclusion

Based on our findings, it is unlikely that H1N1pdm09 virus infection contributed to a sudden increase in the incidence of childhood narcolepsy observed in Finland in 2010 after AS03-adjuvanted Pandemrix vaccination.     

Minor changes in the hemagglutinin of influenza A(H1N1)2009 virus alter its antigenic properties

Background

The influenza A(H1N1)2009 virus has been the dominant type of influenza A virus in Finland during the 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 epidemic seasons. We analyzed the antigenic characteristics of several influenza A(H1N1)2009 viruses isolated during the two influenza seasons by analyzing the amino acid sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA), modeling the amino acid changes in the HA structure and measuring antibody responses induced by natural infection or influenza vaccination.

Methods/Results

Based on the HA sequences of influenza A(H1N1)2009 viruses we selected 13 different strains for antigenic characterization. The analysis included the vaccine virus, A/California/07/2009 and multiple California-like isolates from 2009–2010 and 2010–2011 epidemic seasons. These viruses had two to five amino acid changes in their HA1 molecule. The mutation(s) were located in antigenic sites Sa, Ca1, Ca2 and Cb region. Analysis of the antibody levels by hemagglutination inhibition test (HI) indicated that vaccinated individuals and people who had experienced a natural influenza A(H1N1)2009 virus infection showed good immune responses against the vaccine virus and most of the wild-type viruses. However, one to two amino acid changes in the antigenic site Sa dramatically affected the ability of antibodies to recognize these viruses. In contrast, the tested viruses were indistinguishable in regard to antibody recognition by the sera from elderly individuals who had been exposed to the Spanish influenza or its descendant viruses during the early 20^th century.

Conclusions

According to our results, one to two amino acid changes (N125D and/or N156K) in the major antigenic sites of the hemagglutinin of influenza A(H1N1)2009 virus may lead to significant reduction in the ability of patient and vaccine sera to recognize A(H1N1)2009 viruses.     

Correlates of severe disease in patients with 2009 pandemic influenza (H1N1) virus infection

Background

In the context of 2009 pandemic influenza (H1N1) virus infection (pandemic H1N1 influenza), identifying correlates of the severity of disease is critical to guiding the implementation of antiviral strategies, prioritization of vaccination efforts and planning of health infrastructure. The objective of this study was to identify factors correlated with severity of disease in confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza.

Methods

This cumulative case–control study included all laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza among residents of the province of Manitoba, Canada, for whom the final location of treatment was known. Severe cases were defined by admission to a provincial intensive care unit (ICU). Factors associated with severe disease necessitating admission to the ICU were determined by comparing ICU cases with two control groups: patients who were admitted to hospital but not to an ICU and those who remained in the community.

Results

As of Sept. 5, 2009, there had been 795 confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza in Manitoba for which the final treatment location could be determined. The mean age of individuals with laboratory-confirmed infection was 25.3 (standard deviation 18.8) years. More than half of the patients (417 or 52%) were female, and 215 (37%) of 588 confirmed infections for which ethnicity was known occurred in First Nations residents. The proportion of First Nations residents increased with increasing severity of disease (116 [28%] of 410 community cases, 74 [54%] of 136 admitted to hospital and 25 [60%] of 42 admitted to an ICU; p < 0.001), as did the presence of an underlying comorbidity (201 [35%] of 569 community cases, 103 [57%] of 181 admitted to hospital and 34 [76%] of 45 admitted to an ICU; p < 0.001). The median interval from onset of symptoms to initiation of antiviral therapy was 2 days (interquartile range, IQR 1–3) for community cases, 4 days (IQR 2–6) for patients admitted to hospital and 6 days (IQR 4–9) for those admitted to an ICU (p < 0.001). In a multivariable logistic model, the interval from onset of symptoms to initiation of antiviral therapy (odds ratio [OR] 8.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.82–24.1), First Nations ethnicity (OR 6.52, 95% CI 2.04–20.8) and presence of an underlying comorbidity (OR 3.19, 95% CI 1.07–9.52) were associated with increased odds of admission to the ICU (i.e., severe disease) relative to community cases. In an analysis of ICU cases compared with patients admitted to hospital, First Nations ethnicity (OR 3.23, 95% CI 1.04–10.1) was associated with increased severity of disease.

Interpretation

Severe pandemic H1N1 influenza necessitating admission to the ICU was associated with a longer interval from onset of symptoms to treatment with antiviral therapy and with the presence of an underlying comorbidity. First Nations ethnicity appeared to be an independent determinant of severe infection. Despite these associations, the cause and outcomes of pandemic HINI influenza may involve many complex and interrelated factors, all of which require further research and analysis.In April 2009, Canada’s first wave of pandemic influenza (H1N1) virus infections (pandemic H1N1 influenza) began. The highest burden of severe illness in Canada occurred in the province of Manitoba, where 45 Manitobans and 9 out-of-province patients were admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU). In this first wave, ICU staff and equipment were mobilized to expand bed capacity and ventilator capabilities to accommodate clinical need.Although many individuals presented with mild, self-limited symptoms and no sign of pulmonary involvement, some people required admission to an ICU and received maximal life support measures.^1–3 Predicting disease and mitigating hazard in at-risk populations is an important aim of public heath epidemiology, and in preparation for future waves of pandemic H1N1 influenza, determining correlates of the severity of disease may be very important. Initial reports have suggested that, in addition to many of the previously known risk factors for complications of seasonal influenza, obesity⁴ and other underlying comorbidities^3,5 may be risk factors for severe disease. The interval from onset of symptoms to initiation of antiviral therapy or other treatment and supportive care was also associated with adverse outcome in a recent case series.⁶ In a Canadian study of severe pandemic H1N1 influenza, First Nations people were proportionally overrepresented among patients in the ICU.² However, it is unclear if this association was independent of potential confounding factors. The ability to determine correlates of severe pandemic H1N1 disease and subsequent need for ICU resources in at-risk populations would provide opportunities for public and population health analysis and action, public education, strategic prioritization of vaccination efforts, efficient and equitable allocation and use of antiviral drugs, and development of infrastructure within the health system.The objectives of this study were to identify factors that were correlated with severity of disease in confirmed cases of pandemic H1N1 influenza. Our hypothesis, which was based on existing literature, was that obesity, First Nations ethnicity and longer interval from onset of symptoms to treatment would be important determinants of the severity of disease.     

Seasonal Incidence of Medically Attended Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in a Community Cohort of Adults ≥50 Years Old

Background

Diagnostic testing for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is not routinely performed in adults. We estimated medically attended RSV seasonal incidence in a community cohort of adults ≥50 years old during four influenza seasons (2006–07 through 2009–10).

Methods

Patients seeking care for acute respiratory illness (ARI) were prospectively enrolled and tested for RSV by multiplex RT-PCR. Results from enrolled patients were used to estimate projected cases among non-enrolled patients with ARI. The seasonal incidence of medically attended RSV was the sum of actual and projected cases divided by the community cohort denominator. Since each enrollment period did not include the entire RSV season, incidence estimates were adjusted to account for the statewide proportion of RSV occurring outside the study enrollment period.

Results

There were 16,088 to 17,694 adults in the cohort each season and 164 RSV cases in all 4 seasons. The overall seasonal incidence of medically attended RSV was 154 episodes (95% CI, 132–180) per 10,000 persons; the incidence was highest in 2007–08 (179) and lowest in 2006–07 (110). Among persons 50–59, 60–69, and ≥70 years old, RSV incidence was 124 (95% CI, 99–156), 147 (95% CI, 110–196), and 199 (95% CI, 153–258), respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence of medically attended RSV increased with age and was similar during four seasons.     

Epidemiological Characterization of Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Cases from 2009 to 2010 in Baguio City,the Philippines

Background

Baguio City, Philippines experienced its first influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 [A(H1)pdm09] case in May 2009. In spite of numerous reports describing the epidemiological and clinical features of A(H1)pdm09 cases, there are no studies about A(H1)pdm09 epidemiology in the Philippines, where year-round influenza activity was observed.

Objectives

We aimed to investigate the epidemiological and clinical features of A(H1)pdm09 in pandemic and post-pandemic periods.

Methods

Data were collected under enhanced surveillance of influenza-like illness (ILI) and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) from January 2009 to December 2010. RT-PCR was used to detect A(H1)pdm09, following the protocol of the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The reproduction number was computed as a simple exponential growth rate. Differences in proportional and categorical data were examined using chi-square test or Fishers’ exact test.

Results and Conclusions

The outbreak was observed from week 25 to 35 in 2009 and from week 24 to 37 in 2010. The highest proportion of cases was among children aged 5–14 years. The number of ILI outpatients was 2.3-fold higher in 2009 than in 2010, while the number of inpatients was 1.8-fold higher in 2009. No significant difference in gender was observed during the two periods. The clinical condition of all patients was generally mild and self-limiting, with only 2 mortalities among inpatients in 2009. The basic reproduction number was estimated as 1.16 in 2009 and 1.05 in 2010 in the assumption of mean generation time as 2.6 days. School children played a significant role in facilitating influenza transmission.     

Properly Folded Bacterially Expressed H1N1 Hemagglutinin Globular Head and Ectodomain Vaccines Protect Ferrets against H1N1 Pandemic Influenza Virus

Background

In the face of impending influenza pandemic, a rapid vaccine production and mass vaccination is the most effective approach to prevent the large scale mortality and morbidity that was associated with the 1918 “Spanish Flu”. The traditional process of influenza vaccine production in eggs is time consuming and may not meet the demands of rapid global vaccination required to curtail influenza pandemic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Recombinant technology can be used to express the hemagglutinin (HA) of the emerging new influenza strain in a variety of systems including mammalian, insect, and bacterial cells. In this study, two forms of HA proteins derived from the currently circulating novel H1N1 A/California/07/2009 virus, HA1 (1–330) and HA (1–480), were expressed and purified from E. coli under controlled redox refolding conditions that favoured proper protein folding. However, only the recombinant HA1 (1–330) protein formed oligomers, including functional trimers that bound receptor and caused agglutination of human red blood cells. These proteins were used to vaccinate ferrets prior to challenge with the A/California/07/2009 virus. Both proteins induced neutralizing antibodies, and reduced viral loads in nasal washes. However, the HA1 (1–330) protein that had higher content of multimeric forms provided better protection from fever and weight loss at a lower vaccine dose compared with HA (1–480). Protein yield for the HA1 (1–330) ranged around 40 mg/Liter, while the HA (1–480) yield was 0.4–0.8 mg/Liter.

Conclusions/Significance

This is the first study that describes production in bacterial system of properly folded functional globular HA1 domain trimers, lacking the HA2 transmembrane protein, that elicit potent neutralizing antibody responses following vaccination and protect ferrets from in vivo challenge. The combination of bacterial expression system with established quality control methods could provide a mechanism for rapid large scale production of influenza vaccines in the face of influenza pandemic threat.     

Influenza Epidemiology and Vaccine Effectiveness among Patients with Influenza-Like Illness,Viral Watch Sentinel Sites,South Africa, 2005–2009

Background

There is limited data on the epidemiology of influenza and few published estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Africa. In April 2009, a new influenza virus strain infecting humans was identified and rapidly spread globally. We compared the characteristics of patients ill with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus to those ill with seasonal influenza and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness during five influenza seasons (2005–2009) in South Africa.

Methods

Epidemiological data and throat and/or nasal swabs were collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) at sentinel sites. Samples were tested for seasonal influenza viruses using culture, haemagglutination inhibition tests and/or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 by real-time PCR. For the vaccine effectiveness (VE) analysis we considered patients testing positive for influenza A and/or B as cases and those testing negative for influenza as controls. Age-adjusted VE was calculated as 1-odds ratio for influenza in vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals.

Results

From 2005 through 2009 we identified 3,717 influenza case-patients. The median age was significantly lower among patients infected with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus than those with seasonal influenza, 17 and 27 years respectively (p<0.001). The vaccine coverage during the influenza season ranged from 3.4% in 2009 to 5.1% in 2006 and was higher in the ≥50 years (range 6.9% in 2008 to 13.2% in 2006) than in the <50 years age group (range 2.2% in 2007 to 3.7% in 2006). The age-adjusted VE estimates for seasonal influenza were 48.6% (4.9%, 73.2%); −14.2% (−9.7%, 34.8%); 12.0% (−70.4%, 55.4%); 67.4% (12.4%, 90.3%) and 29.6% (−21.5%, 60.1%) from 2005 to 2009 respectively. For the A(H1N1)pdm09 season, the efficacy of seasonal vaccine was −6.4% (−93.5%, 43.3%).

Conclusion

Influenza vaccine demonstrated a significant protective effect in two of the five years evaluated. Low vaccine coverage may have reduced power to estimate vaccine effectiveness.     

Post-pandemic seroprevalence of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infection (swine flu) among children <18 years in Germany

Background

We determined antibodies to the pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus in children to assess: the incidence of (H1N1) 2009 infections in the 2009/2010 season in Germany, the proportion of subclinical infections and to compare titers in vaccinated and infected children.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Eight pediatric hospitals distributed over Germany prospectively provided sera from in- or outpatients aged 1 to 17 years from April 1^st to July 31^st 2010. Vaccination history, recall of infections and sociodemographic factors were ascertained. Antibody titers were measured with a sensitive and specific in-house hemagglutination inhibition test (HIT) and compared to age-matched sera collected during 6 months before the onset of the pandemic in Germany. We analyzed 1420 post-pandemic and 300 pre-pandemic sera. Among unvaccinated children aged 1–4 and 5–17 years the prevalence of HI titers (≥1∶10) was 27.1% (95% CI: 23.5–31.3) and 53.5% (95% CI: 50.9–56.2) compared to 1.7% and 5.5%, respectively, for pre-pandemic sera, accounting for a serologically determined incidence of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 during the season 2009/2010 of 25,4% (95% CI : 19.3–30.5) in children aged 1–4 years and 48.0% (95% CI: 42.6–52.0) in 5–17 year old children. Of children with HI titers ≥1∶10, 25.5% (95% CI: 22.5–28.8) reported no history of any infectious disease since June 2009. Among vaccinated children, 92% (95%-CI: 87.0–96.6) of the 5–17 year old but only 47.8% (95%-CI: 33.5–66.5) of the 1–4 year old children exhibited HI titers against influenza A virus (H1N1) 2009.

Conclusion

Serologically determined incidence of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 infections in children indicates high infection rates with older children (5–17 years) infected twice as often as younger children. In about a quarter of the children with HI titers after the season 2009/2010 subclinical infections must be assumed. Low HI titers in young children after vaccination with the AS03_B-adjuvanted split virion vaccine need further scrutiny.