Association between public media and trends in new acute coronary syndrome presentations during the first COVID‑19 wave in the Netherlands

BackgroundWe aimed to evaluate the association between public media and trends in new presentations of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‑19) in the Netherlands.MethodsNew ACS presentations per week in 73 hospitals during the first half of 2019 and 2020 were retrieved from the national organisation Dutch Hospital Data and incidence rates were calculated. Stratified analyses were performed by region, type of ACS and patient characteristics.ResultsAfter the first confirmed COVID‑19 case and during lockdown, numbers declined by up to 41% (95% confidence interval (CI): 36–47%) compared to 2019. This reduction was more pronounced for non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) (48%; 95% CI: 39–55%) and unstable angina (UA; 50%; 95% CI: 40–59%) than for STEMI (34%; 95% CI: 23–43%). There was no association between ACS and COVID‑19 incidence rate per region. After the steep decline, a public campaign encouraged patients not to postpone hospital visits. Numbers then increased, without a rebound effect. Trends were similar irrespective of sex, age or socio-economic status. During the outbreak, compared to coronary artery bypass graft procedures, relatively more (acute) percutaneous coronary interventions for NSTEMI and UA were performed.ConclusionNew ACS presentations decreased by up to 41%. Lockdown measures and public campaigns, rather than COVID‑19 incidence, were associated with significant changes in new ACS presentations. Even though causality cannot be established, this emphasises the role of the public media and healthcare organisations in informing patients to prevent underdiagnoses of ACS and associated health damage.Supplementary InformationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-021-01603-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Pandemic-associated mobility restrictions could cause increases in dengue virus transmission

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has induced unprecedented reductions in human mobility and social contacts throughout the world. Because dengue virus (DENV) transmission is strongly driven by human mobility, behavioral changes associated with the pandemic have been hypothesized to impact dengue incidence. By discouraging human contact, COVID-19 control measures have also disrupted dengue vector control interventions, the most effective of which require entry into homes. We sought to investigate how and why dengue incidence could differ under a lockdown scenario with a proportion of the population sheltered at home.Methodology & principal findingsWe used an agent-based model with a realistic treatment of human mobility and vector control. We found that a lockdown in which 70% of the population sheltered at home and which occurred in a season when a new serotype invaded could lead to a small average increase in cumulative DENV infections of up to 10%, depending on the time of year lockdown occurred. Lockdown had a more pronounced effect on the spatial distribution of DENV infections, with higher incidence under lockdown in regions with higher mosquito abundance. Transmission was also more focused in homes following lockdown. The proportion of people infected in their own home rose from 54% under normal conditions to 66% under lockdown, and the household secondary attack rate rose from 0.109 to 0.128, a 17% increase. When we considered that lockdown measures could disrupt regular, city-wide vector control campaigns, the increase in incidence was more pronounced than with lockdown alone, especially if lockdown occurred at the optimal time for vector control.Conclusions & significanceOur results indicate that an unintended outcome of lockdown measures may be to adversely alter the epidemiology of dengue. This observation has important implications for an improved understanding of dengue epidemiology and effective application of dengue vector control. When coordinating public health responses during a syndemic, it is important to monitor multiple infections and understand that an intervention against one disease may exacerbate another.     

Emergency medical services evaluations for chest pain during first COVID-19 lockdown in Hollands-Midden,the Netherlands

ObjectiveTo assess whether the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 had negative indirect health effects, as people seem to have been reluctant to seek medical care.MethodsAll emergency medical services (EMS) transports for chest pain or out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in the Dutch region Hollands-Midden (population served > 800,000) were evaluated during the initial 6 weeks of the COVID-19 lockdown and during the same time period in 2019. The primary endpoint was the number of evaluated chest pain patients in both cohorts. In addition, the number of EMS evaluations of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and OHCA were assessed.ResultsDuring the COVID-19 lockdown period, the EMS evaluated 927 chest pain patients (49% male, age 62 ± 17 years) compared with 1041 patients (51% male, 63 ± 17 years) in the same period in 2019, which corresponded with a significant relative risk (RR) reduction of 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81–0.96). Similarly, there was a significant reduction in the number of STEMI patients (RR 0.52, 95% CI 0.32–0.85), the incidence of OHCA remained unchanged (RR 1.23, 95% CI 0.83–1.83).ConclusionDuring the first COVID-19 lockdown, there was a significant reduction in the number of patients with chest pain or STEMI evaluated by the EMS, while the incidence of OHCA remained similar. Although the reason for the decrease in chest pain and STEMI consultations is not entirely clear, more attention should be paid to the importance of contacting the EMS in case of suspected cardiac symptoms in possible future lockdowns.Supplementary InformationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-021-01545-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Estimates of Dengue Force of Infection in Children in Colombo,Sri Lanka

Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral disease worldwide and a major cause of childhood fever burden in Sri Lanka, which has experienced a number of large epidemics in the past decade. Despite this, data on the burden and transmission of dengue virus in the Indian Subcontinent are lacking. As part of a longitudinal fever surveillance study, we conducted a dengue seroprevalence survey among children aged <12 years in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We used a catalytic model to estimate the risk of primary infection among seronegative children. Over 50% of children had IgG antibodies to dengue virus and seroprevalence increased with age. The risk of primary infection was 14.1% per year (95% CI: 12.7%–15.6%), indicating that among initially seronegative children, approximately 1 in 7 experience their first infection within 12 months. There was weak evidence to suggest that the force of primary infection could be lower for children aged 6 years and above. We estimate that there are approximately 30 primary dengue infections among children <12 years in the community for every case notified to national surveillance, although this ratio is closer to 100∶1 among infants. Dengue represents a considerable infection burden among children in urban Sri Lanka, with levels of transmission comparable to those in the more established epidemics of Southeast Asia.     

Increased risk for COVID‐19 breakthrough infection in fully vaccinated patients with substance use disorders in the United States between December 2020 and August 2021

Individuals with substance use disorders (SUDs) are at increased risk for COVID‐19 infection and for adverse outcomes of the infection. Though vaccines are highly effective against COVID‐19, their effectiveness in individuals with SUDs might be curtailed by compromised immune status and a greater likelihood of exposures, added to the waning vaccine immunity and the new SARS‐CoV‐2 variants. In a population‐based cohort study, we assessed the risk, time trends, outcomes and disparities of COVID‐19 breakthrough infection in fully vaccinated SUD patients starting 14 days after completion of vaccination. The study included 579,372 individuals (30,183 with a diagnosis of SUD and 549,189 without such a diagnosis) who were fully vaccinated between December 2020 and August 2021, and had not contracted COVID‐19 infection prior to vaccination. We used the TriNetX Analytics network platform to access de‐identified electronic health records from 63 health care organizations in the US. Among SUD patients, the risk for breakthrough infection ranged from 6.8% for tobacco use disorder to 7.8% for cannabis use disorder, all significantly higher than the 3.6% in non‐SUD population (p<0.001). Breakthrough infection risk remained significantly higher after controlling for demographics (age, gender, ethnicity) and vaccine types for all SUD subtypes, except for tobacco use disorder, and was highest for cocaine and cannabis use disorders (hazard ratio, HR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.30‐3.25 for cocaine; HR=1.92, 95% CI: 1.39‐2.66 for cannabis). When we matched SUD and non‐SUD individuals for lifetime comorbidities and adverse socioeconomic determinants of health, the risk for breakthrough infection no longer differed between these populations, except for patients with cannabis use disorder, who remained at increased risk (HR=1.55, 95% CI: 1.22‐1.99). The risk for breakthrough infection was higher in SUD patients who received the Pfizer than the Moderna vaccine (HR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.31‐1.69). In the vaccinated SUD population, the risk for hospitalization was 22.5% for the breakthrough cohort and 1.6% for the non‐breakthrough cohort (risk ratio, RR=14.4, 95% CI: 10.19‐20.42), while the risk for death was 1.7% and 0.5% respectively (RR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.74‐7.05). No significant age, gender and ethnic disparities for breakthrough infection were observed in vaccinated SUD patients. These data suggest that fully vaccinated SUD individuals are at higher risk for breakthrough COVID‐19 infection, and this is largely due to their higher prevalence of comorbidities and adverse socioeconomic determinants of health compared with non‐SUD individuals. The high frequency of comorbidities in SUD patients is also likely to contribute to their high rates of hospitalization and death following breakthrough infection.     

Changing epidemiology of dengue in Sri Lanka—Challenges for the future

BackgroundDengue infections are on the rise in Sri Lanka and are spreading to all areas in the country. Here, we discuss the changes in dengue epidemiology in Sri Lanka in relation to changes in age distribution, changes in seroprevalence rates over time, and possible reasons contributing to such changes.Methods and findingsAlthough the incidence of dengue increased 20-fold from the year 2000 to 2012 and a further 3-fold from 2012 to 2019, this increase is not reflected in a similar increase in the age-stratified seropositivity rates for dengue. For instance, the annual seroconversion rates were 0.76% in 2013 and 0.91% in 2017. The annual seroconversion rates in the 6 to 17 age group were 1.5% per year in 2003, 3.9% in 2013, and 4.1% in 2017. In addition, although a 13-fold increase in dengue was seen in those who were <19 years of age, a 52.4-fold increase was seen in the 40- to 59-year age group. The case fatality rates (CFRs) have similarly changed, with 61.8% of deaths occurring in those <19 years of age in the year 2000, while in 2012 to 2018, the highest CFR were seen in those who were aged 20 to 39 years. Although there has been a marked increase in the number of cases, the vector densities did not change during a 4-year period. The proportion of adult individuals experiencing a secondary dengue infection has also remained between 65% and 75% between the years 2004 and 2018.ConclusionsA change in the ratio of symptomatic to asymptomatic infections can give rise to changes in the reported incidence of dengue. In order to take an appropriate policy decision in dengue control activities, it would be important to study the changes in virus serotypes, vector dispersion, and densities. Further, the contribution of the rise in metabolic diseases to an increase in the symptomatic as well as more severe infections due to dengue is explored.     

COVID‐19 lockdown frees wildlife to roam but increases poaching threats in Nepal

To contain transmission of COVID‐19, lockdowns or strict restrictions of people''s mobility outside their residences were instituted in a majority of countries worldwide, including Nepal, where the first phase of nationwide lockdown was observed from 24 March to 21 July 2020. This sudden halt in human outdoor activities brought positive and negative impacts on forests and wildlife. We undertook a study to learn the impact of the COVID‐19 lockdown on wildlife and forests in the protected areas (PAs) of Nepal. Between July and September 2020, data on illegal activities recorded by the staff of PAs and also those reported by media were collected and analyzed. Key informant interviews (KII) were done with the park officers and security personnel by virtual communication (telephone, messenger app, and video call) to collect detailed information and for corroboration. The collected data were categorized into four groups: (a) wildlife killed, (b) wildlife injured, (c) arrest incidents related to forest crime, and (d) arrest incidents related to wildlife crime. Data from the fiscal year 2019–2020 were analyzed, comparing before lockdown and after. Among 20 PAs investigated during the lockdown, the study found substantial increases in wildlife death in two PAs, Banke National Park, and Bardia National Park. Similarly, Chitwan National Park (CNP) and Shivapuri Nagarjun National Park (SNNP) witnessed a rise in wildlife poaching. CNP and SNNP are located close to densely populated cities and also have human settlements in their peripheries. Wildlife was sighted freely roaming inside PAs during the lockdown, presumably because the absence of visitors and human activities during the lockdown decreased disturbance. Thus, the wildlife was enjoying the freedom of movement on the one hand, and on the other hand was threatened by poachers, many of whom were laid off from other activities and were taking advantage of the lapse in security.     

Spatiotemporal distribution of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Sri Lanka and future case burden estimates

BackgroundLeishmaniasis is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease, which is on the rise in Sri Lanka. Spatiotemporal and risk factor analyses are useful for understanding transmission dynamics, spatial clustering and predicting future disease distribution and trends to facilitate effective infection control.MethodsThe nationwide clinically confirmed cutaneous leishmaniasis and climatic data were collected from 2001 to 2019. Hierarchical clustering and spatiotemporal cross-correlation analysis were used to measure the region-wide and local (between neighboring districts) synchrony of transmission. A mixed spatiotemporal regression-autoregression model was built to study the effects of climatic, neighboring-district dispersal, and infection carryover variables on leishmaniasis dynamics and spatial distribution. Same model without climatic variables was used to predict the future distribution and trends of leishmaniasis cases in Sri Lanka.ResultsA total of 19,361 clinically confirmed leishmaniasis cases have been reported in Sri Lanka from 2001–2019. There were three phases identified: low-transmission phase (2001–2010), parasite population buildup phase (2011–2017), and outbreak phase (2018–2019). Spatially, the districts were divided into three groups based on similarity in temporal dynamics. The global mean correlation among district incidence dynamics was 0.30 (95% CI 0.25–0.35), and the localized mean correlation between neighboring districts was 0.58 (95% CI 0.42–0.73). Risk analysis for the seven districts with the highest incidence rates indicated that precipitation, neighboring-district effect, and infection carryover effect exhibited significant correlation with district-level incidence dynamics. Model-predicted incidence dynamics and case distribution matched well with observed results, except for the outbreak in 2018. The model-predicted 2020 case number is about 5,400 cases, with intensified transmission and expansion of high-transmission area. The predicted case number will be 9115 in 2022 and 19212 in 2025.ConclusionsThe drastic upsurge in leishmaniasis cases in Sri Lanka in the last few year was unprecedented and it was strongly linked to precipitation, high burden of localized infections and inter-district dispersal. Targeted interventions are urgently needed to arrest an uncontrollable disease spread.     

Nutritional Manipulation for the Primary Prevention of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Studies

IntroductionThe rise in gestational diabetes (GDM), defined as first onset or diagnosis of diabetes in pregnancy, is a global problem. GDM is often associated with unhealthy diet and is a major contributor to adverse outcomes maternal and fetal outcomes. Manipulation of nutrition has the potential to prevent GDM.MethodsWe assessed the effects of nutritional manipulation in pregnancy on GDM and relevant maternal and fetal outcomes by a systematic review of the literature. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Database from inception to March 2014 without any language restrictions. Randomised controlled trials (RCT) of nutritional manipulation to prevent GDM were included. We summarised dichotomous data as relative risk (RR) and continuous data as standardised mean difference (SMD) with 95% confidence interval (CI).ResultsFrom 1761 citations, 20 RCTs (6,444 women) met the inclusion criteria. We identified the following interventions: diet-based (n = 6), mixed approach (diet and lifestyle) interventions (n = 13), and nutritional supplements (myo-inositol n = 1, diet with probiotics n = 1). Diet based interventions reduced the risk of GDM by 33% (RR 0.67; 95% CI 0.39, 1.15). Mixed approach interventions based on diet and lifestyle had no effect on GDM (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.89, 1.22). Nutritional supplements probiotics combined with diet (RR 0.40; 95% CI 0.20, 0.78) and myo-inositol (RR 0.40; 95% CI 0.16, 0.99) were assessed in one trial each and showed a beneficial effect. We observed a significant interaction between the groups based on BMI for diet-based intervention. The risk of GDM was reduced in obese and overweight pregnant women for GDM (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.18, 0.86).ConclusionsNutritional manipulation in pregnancy based on diet or mixed approach do not appear to reduce the risk of GDM. Nutritional supplements show potential as agents for primary prevention of GDM.     

Emergence of Epidemic Dengue-1 Virus in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka

BackgroundDengue is a frequent cause of acute febrile illness with an expanding global distribution. Since the 1960s, dengue in Sri Lanka has been documented primarily along the heavily urbanized western coast with periodic shifting of serotypes. Outbreaks from 2005–2008 were attributed to a new clade of DENV-3 and more recently to a newly introduced genotype of DENV-1. In 2007, we conducted etiologic surveillance of acute febrile illness in the Southern Province and confirmed dengue in only 6.3% of febrile patients, with no cases of DENV-1 identified. To re-evaluate the importance of dengue as an etiology of acute febrile illness in this region, we renewed fever surveillance in the Southern Province to newly identify and characterize dengue.Conclusions/SignificanceWe describe the first epidemic of DENV-1 in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka in a population known to be susceptible to this serotype because of prior study. Dengue accounted for 40% of acute febrile illnesses in the current study. The emergence of DENV-1 as the foremost serotype in this densely populated but agrarian population highlights the changing epidemiology of dengue and the need for continued surveillance and prevention.     

Changes in social contacts in England during the COVID-19 pandemic between March 2020 and March 2021 as measured by the CoMix survey: A repeated cross-sectional study

BackgroundDuring the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the United Kingdom government imposed public health policies in England to reduce social contacts in hopes of curbing virus transmission. We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study to measure contact patterns weekly from March 2020 to March 2021 to estimate the impact of these policies, covering 3 national lockdowns interspersed by periods of less restrictive policies.Methods and findingsThe repeated cross-sectional survey data were collected using online surveys of representative samples of the UK population by age and gender. Survey participants were recruited by the online market research company Ipsos MORI through internet-based banner and social media ads and email campaigns. The participant data used for this analysis are restricted to those who reported living in England. We calculated the mean daily contacts reported using a (clustered) bootstrap and fitted a censored negative binomial model to estimate age-stratified contact matrices and estimate proportional changes to the basic reproduction number under controlled conditions using the change in contacts as a scaling factor. To put the findings in perspective, we discuss contact rates recorded throughout the year in terms of previously recorded rates from the POLYMOD study social contact study.The survey recorded 101,350 observations from 19,914 participants who reported 466,710 contacts over 53 weeks. We observed changes in social contact patterns in England over time and by participants’ age, personal risk factors, and perception of risk. The mean reported contacts for adults 18 to 59 years old ranged between 2.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.20 to 2.60) contacts and 4.93 (95% CI 4.65 to 5.19) contacts during the study period. The mean contacts for school-age children (5 to 17 years old) ranged from 3.07 (95% CI 2.89 to 3.27) to 15.11 (95% CI 13.87 to 16.41). This demonstrates a sustained decrease in social contacts compared to a mean of 11.08 (95% CI 10.54 to 11.57) contacts per participant in all age groups combined as measured by the POLYMOD social contact study in 2005 to 2006. Contacts measured during periods of lockdowns were lower than in periods of eased social restrictions. The use of face coverings outside the home has remained high since the government mandated use in some settings in July 2020. The main limitations of this analysis are the potential for selection bias, as participants are recruited through internet-based campaigns, and recall bias, in which participants may under- or overreport the number of contacts they have made.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that recorded contacts reduced dramatically compared to prepandemic levels (as measured in the POLYMOD study), with changes in reported contacts correlated with government interventions throughout the pandemic. Despite easing of restrictions in the summer of 2020, the mean number of reported contacts only returned to about half of that observed prepandemic at its highest recorded level. The CoMix survey provides a unique repeated cross-sectional data set for a full year in England, from the first day of the first lockdown, for use in statistical analyses and mathematical modelling of COVID-19 and other diseases.

In a repeated cross-sectional study, Amy Gimma and colleagues study social contact patterns in the context of lockdown periods and government interventions in England during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.     

Major acute cardiovascular events after dengue infection–A population-based observational study

BackgroundDengue virus (DENV) infection may be associated with increased risks of major adverse cardiovascular effect (MACE), but a large-scale study evaluating the association between DENV infection and MACEs is still lacking.Methods and findingsAll laboratory confirmed dengue cases in Taiwan during 2009 and 2015 were included by CDC notifiable database. The self-controlled case-series design was used to evaluate the association between DENV infection and MACE (including acute myocardial infarction [AMI], heart failure and stroke). The "risk interval" was defined as the first 7 days after the diagnosis of DENV infection and the "control interval" as 1 year before and 1 year after the risk interval. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for MACE were estimated by conditional Poisson regression. Finally, the primary outcome of the incidence of MACEs within one year of dengue was observed in 1,247 patients. The IRR of MACEs was 17.9 (95% CI 15.80–20.37) during the first week after the onset of DENV infection observed from 1,244 eligible patients. IRR were significantly higher for hemorrhagic stroke (10.9, 95% CI 6.80–17.49), ischemic stroke (15.56, 95% CI 12.44–19.47), AMI (13.53, 95% CI 10.13–18.06), and heart failure (27.24, 95% CI 22.67–32.73). No increased IRR was observed after day 14.ConclusionsThe risks for MACEs are significantly higher in the immediate time period after dengue infection. Since dengue infection is potentially preventable by early recognition and vaccination, the dengue-associated MACE should be taken into consideration when making public health management policies.     

COVID‐19 lockdown measures impacted citizen science hedgehog observation numbers in Bavaria,Germany

The COVID‐19 pandemic has led to temporary changes in human–animal interactions due to changes in human activities. Here, we report on a surge in hedgehog observations during the first COVID‐19 lockdown in Germany in 2020, on the citizen science Web portal “Igel in Bayern” (Hedgehogs in Bavaria) in Germany. This increase in comparison with previous years was attributed to an increase in the number of people reporting hedgehog observations, rather than an increase in the number of hedgehog observations made by each observer. Additionally, in contrast to other studies on the effects of a COVID‐19 lockdown on observations recorded by citizen science projects, the share of observations made in more urbanized areas during the lockdown time was not higher than the change observed in less urbanized areas. This is possibly a result of the differences in COVID‐19 measures between Germany and other countries where preceding studies were carried out, in particular the lack of measures limiting traveling outdoor activities for citizens.     

Evaluating spatiotemporal dynamics of snakebite in Sri Lanka: Monthly incidence mapping from a national representative survey sample

BackgroundSnakebite incidence shows both spatial and temporal variation. However, no study has evaluated spatiotemporal patterns of snakebites across a country or region in detail. We used a nationally representative population sample to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka.MethodologyWe conducted a community-based cross-sectional survey representing all nine provinces of Sri Lanka. We interviewed 165 665 people (0.8% of the national population), and snakebite events reported by the respondents were recorded. Sri Lanka is an agricultural country; its central, southern and western parts receive rain mainly from Southwest monsoon (May to September) and northern and eastern parts receive rain mainly from Northeast monsoon (November to February). We developed spatiotemporal models using multivariate Poisson process modelling to explain monthly snakebite and envenoming incidences in the country. These models were developed at the provincial level to explain local spatiotemporal patterns.Principal findingsSnakebites and envenomings showed clear spatiotemporal patterns. Snakebite hotspots were found in North-Central, North-West, South-West and Eastern Sri Lanka. They exhibited biannual seasonal patterns except in South-Western inlands, which showed triannual seasonality. Envenoming hotspots were confined to North-Central, East and South-West parts of the country. Hotspots in North-Central regions showed triannual seasonal patterns and South-West regions had annual patterns. Hotspots remained persistent throughout the year in Eastern regions. The overall monthly snakebite and envenoming incidences in Sri Lanka were 39 (95%CI: 38–40) and 19 (95%CI: 13–30) per 100 000, respectively, translating into 110 000 (95%CI: 107 500–112 500) snakebites and 45 000 (95%CI: 32 000–73 000) envenomings in a calendar year.Conclusions/significanceThis study provides information on community-based monthly incidence of snakebites and envenomings over the whole country. Thus, it provides useful insights into healthcare decision-making, such as, prioritizing locations to establish specialized centres for snakebite management and allocating resources based on risk assessments which take into account both location and season.     

Efficacy of rupatadine in reducing the incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever in patients with acute dengue: A randomised,double blind,placebo-controlled trial

BackgroundRupatadine was previously shown to reduce endothelial dysfunction in vitro, reduced vascular leak in dengue mouse models and to reduce the extent of pleural effusions and thrombocytopenia in patients with acute dengue. Therefore, we sought to determine the efficacy of rupatadine in reducing the incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) in patients with acute dengue.Methods and findingsA phase 2, randomised, double blind, placebo controlled clinical trial was carried out in patients with acute dengue in Sri Lanka in an outpatient setting. Patients with ≤3 days since the onset of illness were either recruited to the treatment arm of oral rupatadine 40mg for 5 days (n = 123) or the placebo arm (n = 126). Clinical and laboratory features were measured daily to assess development of DHF and other complications. 12 (9.7%) patients developed DHF in the treatment arm compared to 22 (17.5%) who were on the placebo although this was not significant (p = 0.09, relative risk 0.68, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.08). Rupatadine also significantly reduced (p = 0.01) the proportion of patients with platelet counts <50,000 cells/mm³ and significantly reduced (p = 0.04) persisting vomiting, headache and hepatic tenderness (p<0.0001) in patients. There was a significant difference in the duration of illness (p = 0.0002) although the proportion of individuals who required hospital admission in both treatment arms. Only 2 patients on rupatadine and 3 patients on the placebo developed shock, while bleeding manifestations were seen in 6 patients on rupatadine and 7 patients on the placebo.ConclusionsRupatadine appeared to be safe and well tolerated and showed a trend towards a reducing proportion of patients with acute dengue who developed DHF. Its usefulness when used in combination with other treatment modalities should be explored.Trial registrationInternational Clinical Trials Registration Platform: SLCTR/2017/024.     

Mobility restrictions and alcohol use during lockdown: “A still and dry pandemic for the many”?

Unexpected mobility disruptions during lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19 became ’tipping points’ with the potential to alter pre-pandemic routines sensitive to socialisation. This paper investigates the impact of lockdown exposure on alcohol consumption. We document two findings using information from the Google Mobility Report and longitudinal data from the Understanding Society survey (UKHLS) in the United Kingdom. First, we find a sharp reduction in both actual mobility and alcohol use (consistent with a ”still and dry pandemic for the many” hypothesis). However, we document an increase in alcohol use among heavy drinkers, implying a split behavioural response to COVID-19 mobility restrictions based on alcohol use prior to the pandemic. Second, using the predictions of the prevalence-response elasticity theory, we find that the pandemic’s reduction in social contacts is responsible for a 2.8 percentage point reduction in drinking among men.     

The effect of weather and climate on dengue outbreak risk in Peru, 2000-2018: A time-series analysis

BackgroundDengue fever is the most common arboviral disease in humans, with an estimated 50-100 million annual infections worldwide. Dengue fever cases have increased substantially in the past four decades, driven largely by anthropogenic factors including climate change. More than half the population of Peru is at risk of dengue infection and due to its geography, Peru is also particularly sensitive to the effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Determining the effect of ENSO on the risk for dengue outbreaks is of particular public health relevance and may also be applicable to other Aedes-vectored viruses.MethodsWe conducted a time-series analysis at the level of the district-month, using surveillance data collected from January 2000 to September 2018 from all districts with a mean elevation suitable to survival of the mosquito vector (<2,500m), and ENSO and weather data from publicly-available datasets maintained by national and international agencies. We took a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to address correlation in space, and B-splines with four knots per year to address correlation in time. We furthermore conducted subgroup analyses by season and natural region.ResultsWe detected a positive and significant effect of temperature (°C, RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.13, 1.15, adjusted for precipitation) and ENSO (ICEN index: RR 1.17, 95% CI 1.15, 1.20; ONI index: RR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02, 1.07) on outbreak risk, but no evidence of a strong effect for precipitation after adjustment for temperature. Both natural region and season were found to be significant effect modifiers of the ENSO-dengue effect, with the effect of ENSO being stronger in the summer and the Selva Alta and Costa regions, compared with winter and Selva Baja and Sierra regions.ConclusionsOur results provide strong evidence that temperature and ENSO have significant effects on dengue outbreaks in Peru, however these results interact with region and season, and are stronger for local ENSO impacts than remote ENSO impacts. These findings support optimization of a dengue early warning system based on local weather and climate monitoring, including where and when to deploy such a system and parameterization of ENSO events, and provide high-precision effect estimates for future climate and dengue modeling efforts.     

Outcomes among children and adults at risk of severe dengue in Sri Lanka: Opportunity for outpatient case management in countries with high disease burden

BackgroundHealthcare systems in dengue-endemic countries are often overburdened due to the high number of patients hospitalized according to dengue management guidelines. We systematically evaluated clinical outcomes in a large cohort of patients hospitalized with acute dengue to support triaging of patients to ambulatory versus inpatient management in the future.Methods/Principal findingsFrom June 2017- December 2018, we conducted surveillance among children and adults with fever within the prior 7 days who were hospitalized at the largest tertiary-care (1,800 bed) hospital in the Southern Province, Sri Lanka. Patients who developed platelet count ≤100,000/μL (threshold for hospital admission in Sri Lanka) and who met at least two clinical criteria consistent with dengue were eligible for enrollment. We confirmed acute dengue by testing sera collected at enrollment for dengue NS1 antigen or IgM antibodies. We defined primary outcomes as per the 1997 and 2009 World Health Organization (WHO) classification criteria: dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF; WHO 1997), dengue shock syndrome (DSS; WHO 1997), and severe dengue (WHO 2009). Overall, 1064 patients were confirmed as having acute dengue: 318 (17.4%) by NS1 rapid antigen testing and 746 (40.7%) by IgM antibody testing. Of these 1064 patients, 994 (93.4%) were adults ≥18 years and 704 (66.2%) were male. The majority (56, 80%) of children and more than half of adults (544, 54.7%) developed DHF during hospitalization, while 6 (8.6%) children and 22 (2.2%) adults developed DSS. Overall, 10 (14.3%) children and 113 (11.4%) adults developed severe dengue. A total of 2 (0.2%) patients died during hospitalization.ConclusionsOne-half of patients hospitalized with acute dengue progressed to develop DHF and a very small number developed DSS or severe dengue. Developing an algorithm for triaging patients to ambulatory versus inpatient management should be the future goal to optimize utilization of healthcare resources in dengue-endemic countries.     

Costs of Dengue Control Activities and Hospitalizations in the Public Health Sector during an Epidemic Year in Urban Sri Lanka

Background

Reported as a public health problem since the 1960s in Sri Lanka, dengue has become a high priority disease for public health authorities. The Ministry of Health is responsible for controlling dengue and other disease outbreaks and associated health care. The involvement of large numbers of public health staff in dengue control activities year-round and the provision of free medical care to dengue patients at secondary care hospitals place a formidable financial burden on the public health sector.

Methods

We estimated the public sector costs of dengue control activities and the direct costs of hospitalizations in Colombo, the most heavily urbanized district in Sri Lanka, during the epidemic year of 2012 from the Ministry of Health’s perspective. The financial costs borne by public health agencies and hospitals are collected using cost extraction tools designed specifically for the study and analysed retrospectively using a combination of activity-based and gross costing approaches.

Results

The total cost of dengue control and reported hospitalizations was estimated at US$3.45 million (US$1.50 per capita) in Colombo district in 2012. Personnel costs accounted for the largest shares of the total costs of dengue control activities (79%) and hospitalizations (46%). The results indicated a per capita cost of US$0.42 for dengue control activities. The average costs per hospitalization ranged between US$216–609 for pediatric cases and between US$196–866 for adult cases according to disease severity and treatment setting.

Conclusions

This analysis is a first attempt to assess the economic burden of dengue response in the public health sector in Sri Lanka. Country-specific evidence is needed for setting public health priorities and deciding about the deployment of existing or new technologies. Our results suggest that dengue poses a major economic burden on the public health sector in Sri Lanka.     

Change in Dengue and Japanese Encephalitis Seroprevalence Rates in Sri Lanka

Background

Sri Lanka has been affected by epidemics of dengue infections for many decades and the incidence and severity of dengue infections have been rising each year. Therefore, we investigated the age stratified seroprevalence of dengue infections in order to facilitate future dengue vaccine strategies. In addition, since the symptomatic dengue infections have increased during the past few decades, we also investigated the possible association with Japanese Encephalitis Virus (JEV) antibody seropositivity with symptomatic dengue in a community cohort in Sri Lanka.

Methods

1689 healthy individuals who were attending a primary health care facility were recruited. Dengue and JEV antibody status was determined in all individuals and JEV vaccination status was recorded.

Results

1152/1689 (68.2%) individuals were seropositive for dengue and only 133/1152 (11.5%) of them had been hospitalized to due to dengue. A significant and positive correlation was observed for dengue antibody seropositivity and age in children (Spearmans R = 0.84, p = 0.002) and in adults (Spearmans R = 0.96, p = 0.004). We observed a significant rise in the age stratified seroprevalence rates in children over a period of 12 years. For instance, in year 2003 the annual seroconversion rate was 1.5% per annum, which had risen to 3.79% per annum by 2014. We also found that both adults (p<0.001) and in children (p = 0.03) who were hospitalized due to dengue were more likely to be seropositive for JEV antibodies. However, 244 (91.4%) of adults who were seropositive for JEV had not had the JEV vaccine.

Conclusions

Dengue seroprevalence rates have risen significantly over the last 12 years in Sri Lanka, possibly due to increased transmission. As individuals who were hospitalized due to dengue were more likely to be seropositive for JEV, the possibility of cross-reactive assays and/or of JEV infection on immunity to the DENV and clinical disease severity should be further investigated.