Comparison of two indices based on macrophyte assemblages to assess the ecological status of coastal waters in the transition between the Atlantic and Mediterranean eco-regions

Several indices based on the composition and abundance of aquatic flora have been developed to assess the ecological status of coastal waters along the European coasts in the context of the Water Framework Directive. This directive pointed out the intercalibration of indices based on the same biological element within an eco-region to ensure the consistency and comparability among them. For a better management of coastal areas in the transition zone between two eco-regions, the comparison of indices developed for each eco-region may also be necessary. The aim of this work was to compare two indices based on macrophytes that have been proposed for two different and adjoining eco-regions: the RSL (Reduced Species List) in the Atlantic eco-region and the CARLIT (Cartography of littoral and upper sublittoral communities) in the Mediterranean. These indices were applied in 14 sites in the transition between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, where a wide range of anthropogenic pressures can be found, from high (Algeciras Bay) to almost negligible ("El Estrecho" Natural Park). Overall, both indices were sensitive to anthropogenic pressures and suitable to assess the ecological status. The comparison between indices suggested a bias in the assessment of the ecological status between good and high classes due to a different definition of high ecological status class between RSL and CARLIT. In addition, the most important disagreements between indices were found in the most degraded localities. The results showed, however, a high comparability between RSL and CARLIT despite their marked conceptual and methodological differences.     

A biotic index using the seagrass Posidonia oceanica (BiPo), to evaluate ecological status of coastal waters

The development of ecologically based indices that respond to disturbances in a predictable manner has been stressed by the EU Water Framework Directive. The seagrass Posidonia oceanica, given its ecological indicator characteristics, has been identified as one of the elements to determine ecological status under the EU Water Framework Directive. The purpose of this study is therefore to develop a biotic index based on P. oceanica (BiPo), focussing on: (i) the necessity of an index that may be applied over the largest geographical extent possible, (ii) the necessity of a tool for a baseline evaluation of P. oceanica status in the Mediterranean, (iii) the compliance with WFD requirements, (iv) the efficiency of the method in terms of reliability and cost. The BiPo index is developed on the basis of all P. oceanica monitoring data available in the western Mediterranean and on a standard assessment of anthropogenic pressures. The index metrics are selected and evaluated on the basis of this pressures assessment, and are subsequently integrated for the evaluation of ecological status. The index is then tested on 15 sites around Corsica (France). The results show that the BiPo well reflects meadow health status and ecological status. Furthermore it is reliable, standard and cost-effective, and can be applied to a wide array of management and conservation purposes.     

A comparative approach of assessing ecological status in two coastal areas of Eastern Mediterranean

This work presents an assessment of the ecological quality status of two marine coastal areas in the Aegean Sea (Greece, Eastern Mediterranean) based on the benthic macroinvertebrate quality element. S. Evvoikos and Thessaloniki gulfs, two coastal areas subjected to slight and heavier anthropogenic pressures, were selected to test the biotic index Bentix developed for the assessment of the ecological status. Other ecological indicators, such as the Shannon diversity index (H′), the species richness (S) and the AMBI biotic index were also applied and evaluated comparatively. Faunistic data were also used to interpret results. The resulting classification was validated with the use of physicochemical parameters and pressure information. This work also provides an insight into the structure of the Bentix classification scheme within the scope of its use in Water Framework Directive (WFD) implementation.     

Application of a new multi-metric phytoplankton index to the assessment of ecological status in marine and transitional waters

Patterns of phytoplankton size spectra variation with gradients of environmental stress have been observed in freshwater, transitional waters and marine ecosystems, driving the development of size spectra based assessment tools.In this study, we have tested on transitional and coastal waters a new Index of Size spectra Sensitivity of Phytoplankton (ISS-Phyto), which integrates simple size spectra metrics, size class sensitivity to anthropogenic disturbance, phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) and taxonomic richness thresholds. ISS-Phyto has been tested both among and within ecosystems along pressure gradients based on expert view assessment; the adequacy of symmetric and both left and right asymmetric models of phytoplankton size class sensitivity have been compared.The results showed that ISS-Phyto consistently discriminated between anthropogenic and natural disturbance conditions. Left asymmetric models of size spectra sensitivity, assuming greater disturbance tolerance with respect to eutrophication and organic enrichment of increasingly large size classes, showed the best fit comparing all ecosystems; in three of the four considered ecosystems (Varna, Helsinki, Mompás-Pasaia), they seemed to discriminate best between different levels of disturbance also within ecosystems. Moreover, they demonstrated significant and inverse patterns of variation along the overall pressure gradient as well as along the inorganic phosphorus (DIP), chlorophyll a and trophic index (TRIX) gradients.Therefore, ISS-Phyto, originally developed for transitional waters, seems to be an adequate assessment tool of ecological status also in coastal marine waters; moreover, it seems adequate to describe within ecosystem disturbance gradients. Hence, ISS-Phyto helps to understand the relationships between anthropogenic impact and ecosystem response from the individual point of view, with reference to the simple parameter of body size.     

Effects of natural hydrological variability on fish assemblages in small Mediterranean streams: Implications for ecological assessment

Small Mediterranean streams are shaped by predictable seasonal events of flooding and drying over an annual cycle, and present a strong inter and intra-annual variation in flow regime. Native fish assemblages in these streams are adapted to this natural environmental variability. The distinction of human-induced disturbances from the natural ones is thus a crucial step before assessing the ecological status of these streams. In this aim, the present study evaluates the effects of natural hydrological variability on fish assemblages from disturbed and least disturbed sites in small intermittent streams of south Portugal. Data were collected over the last two decades (1996–2011) in 14 sites located in the Guadiana and Sado river basins. High variability of fish assemblages was strongly dependent on human-induced disturbances, particularly nutrient/organic load and sediment load, and on natural hydrological variability. Natural hydrological variability can act jointly with anthropogenic disturbances, producing changes on fish assemblages structure of small intermittent streams. In least disturbed sites, despite the natural disturbances caused by inter-annual rainfall variations (including drought and flood events), fish assemblages maintained a long-term stability and revealed a high resilience. On the contrary, disturbed sites presented significantly higher variability on fish assemblages and a short and long-term instability, reflecting a decrease on the resistance and resilience of fish assemblages. Under these conditions, fish fauna integrity is particularly vulnerable and the ecological assessment may be influenced by natural hydrological variations. High hydrological variability (especially if it entails high frequency of dryer years and meaningful cumulative water deficit) may affect the impact of the human pressures with significant and consistent consequences on fish assemblage composition and integrity. In this study, fish metrics that maximize the detection of human degradation and minimize the response to natural variability were based on the relative abundance of native species (insectivorous species, eurytopic species, water column species, native lithophilic species), relative abundance of species with intermediate tolerance and relative number of exotic species. Results highlight the importance of assessing temporal variability on stream biomonitoring programs and emphasize the need to improve the assessment tools, accounting for long-term changes in fish assemblages, namely by selecting the most appropriate fish metrics that respond to anthropogenic disturbances but exhibit low natural temporal variability, essential both in the characterization of the biological reference conditions and in the development of fish indexes in intermittent streams.     

近岸海域生态质量状况综合评价方法——以同安湾为例

基于国外近岸海域生态质量状况综合评价方法,结合我国海洋环境质量评价的研究现状,从生物要素以及水质和沉积物的物理化学要素中筛选出11个指标构成近岸海域生态质量状况综合评价指标体系;综合考虑国内外的评价标准,确定了优、良、中、差、劣5个生态质量状况等级的评价标准;采用层次分析和模糊数学的方法构建近岸海域生态质量状况综合评价方法,并通过同安湾生态质量状况等级与较大的人为扰动以及污染物浓度分布的相关分析对该评价方法进行验证.结果表明:同安湾生态质量状况综合评价等级为中级,处于向差过渡的状态,受人为扰动较大;该方法能够较好地反映主要的人为环境压力和风险因子,同时对未超标的污染因子有一定的预警作用.     

Transitional and coastal waters ecological status assessment: advances and challenges resulting from implementing the European Water Framework Directive

The derivation, performance, sensitivity and inherent uncertainty of ecological quality indicators have become major topics in developing tools for the management of marine, transitional and coastal waters. In reviewing the advances in these waters, related to an ecological status assessment, we show the future challenges to be addressed within the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). Using new analyses carried out under the research project ‘Water Bodies in Europe: Integrative Systems to Assess Ecological status and Recovery’, we provide a complete set of assessments for the biological quality elements (BQEs) (phytoplankton, macroalgae-seagrasses, macroinvertebrates and fish) to be assessed, as well as the validation of existing indicators and multimetric indices and, in some cases, the development of new assessment indices. We show that these indices respond differently to different human pressures and they each have challenges in defining reference conditions against which future changes are judged. In investigating good ecological potential, as the response to heavily modified water bodies, we show that there are flaws in the Directive, not least in its definitions. Our analyses have also focussed on uncertainty in using the indices and we emphasise the problems of defining ecological class boundaries based on indices which themselves may be combined indices (multimetrics). The analysis shows that some of those multimetrics are redundant and/or are inter-correlated and thus may reduce the sensitivity in defining ecological class boundaries. If this is related to the drivers-pressures-state change-impacts-response approach then there are lessons for management measures aimed at achieving good ecological status and even the potential for legal challenges to decisions based on uncertain indices under the WFD. Hence, we conclude the continued need for advances in assessing pressures and gradients, and defining reference conditions for state change, index development, impact assessment and the validation of indices for each BQE.     

The use of nematodes in assessing ecological quality status in the Mediterranean coastal ecosystems

The use of nematodes as biological indicators of environmental quality was evaluated in sediments of the Mediterranean Sea. The Shannon-Diversity Index (H′), the Maturity Index, the c-p%, the Index of Trophic Diversity (ITD) and the presence of sensitive/tolerant genera were applied at a Mediterranean scale to 12 different coastal sites and used to identify the five classes of ecological quality status assessed according to the Water Framework Directive. The results revealed that nematodes represent a highly informative assemblage. In particular, the presence/absence of specific genera indicators, followed by c-p% composition and H′, can be used to evaluate the ecological quality status efficiently.     

Effect of ecological group classification schemes on performance of the AMBI benthic index in US coastal waters

The AZTI Marine Biotic Index (AMBI) requires less geographically-specific calibration than other benthic indices, but has not performed as well in US coastal waters as it has in the European waters for which it was originally developed. Here we examine the extent of improvement in index performance when the Ecological Group (EG) classifications on which AMBI is based are derived using local expertise. Twenty-three US benthic experts developed EG scores for each of three regions in the United States, as well as for the US as a whole. Index performance was then compared using: (1) EG scores specific to a region, (2) national EG scores, (3) national EG scores supplemented with standard international EG scores for taxa that the US experts were not able to make assignments, and (4) standard international EG scores. Performance of each scheme was evaluated by diagnosis of condition at pre-defined good/bad sites, concordance with existing local benthic indices, and independence from natural environmental gradients. The AMBI performed best when using the national EG assignments augmented with standard international EG values. The AMBI using this hybrid EG scheme performed well in differentiating apriori good and bad sites (>80% correct classification rate) and AMBI scores were both concordant and correlated (r_s = 0.4–0.7) with those of existing local indices. Nearly all of the results suggest that assigning the EG values in the framework of local biogeographic conditions produced a better-performing version of AMBI. The improved index performance, however, was tempered with apparent biases in score distribution. The AMBI, regardless of EG scheme, tended to compress ratings away from the extremes and toward the moderate condition and there was a bias with salinity, where high quality sites received increasingly poorer condition scores with decreasing salinity.     

The development of an ecological quality assessment and classification system for Greek running waters based on benthic macroinvertebrates

A first approach towards an integrated, macroinvertebrate based, river type specific system for the assessment and classification of the ecological quality in Greek rivers affected by nutrient enrichment is presented. This system, which was developed within the framework of the AQEM project application in Greece, is regionally adapted and integrated, since it contains a multitude of biotic and abiotic factors affecting taxa presences and abundances. The methodology applied is very promising for the application of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in Greece. According to the AQEM project, a seasonal `multi habitat sampling' procedure, at 45 sampling sites, scattered over three river types, was applied. In addition, a large set of hydrological, morphological, geological, biological, hydrochemical parameters and anthropogenic factors were considered. The system is based on a new, river type specific biotic metric, adapted for Greek conditions (BMG) and a new nutrient pollution metric. The developed metrics showed high correlations with each other. Hence, BMG seems to be suitable for the ecological quality assessment of Greek running waters affected by nutrients. Moreover, by applying BMG, a final classification of the rivers into five quality classes, according to the demands of the WFD, was achieved.     

A multimetric diatom index to assess the ecological status of coastal Galician rivers (NW Spain)

There are many rivers in northwest Spain as a consequence of the mountainous landscape and the granitic geology subjected to Atlantic influences. Water and epilithic diatoms samples were collected at 72 sites in Galicia flowing into the Atlantic Ocean and Cantabrian Sea in summer 2002–2003 and spring 2004. These sites included minimally disturbed sites, defined as reference sites, and impacted sites which were influenced by different human pressures. We used the diatom assemblages to calculate diatom indices using the Omnidia software, but we also developed new metrics based on the similarity of species composition in reference sites. The response of the metrics was tested in relation to physicochemical variables. We developed a diatom multimetric index (MDIAT) as a combination of metric values. The sensitivity of the MDIAT to organic and nutrient stressors supports the use of this index to classify the ecological status of Galician rivers. The MDIAT showed higher correlations with some variables and nutrients than the individual metrics. According to the MDIAT, 69% of the sites sampled in Galician coastal rivers achieve good ecological status. The MDIAT has been developed specifically for Galician granitic rivers (NW Spain), and has been intercalibrated at the European level in the Central Baltic Rivers GIG. Our study validates the application of this multimetric index to evaluate the water quality in coastal Galician rivers.     

基于遥感生态指数的阜新市生态质量评估

城市化建设的不断推进及发展给生态环境带来了日益增加的压力,如何多方位、客观准确并且快速地对区域生态环境质量进行评估是目前研究的一个重要方向。以辽宁省阜新市为研究区域,选取2000年、2008年和2016年的遥感影像作为基础研究数据,借助ENVI5.1软件作为数据处理平台,再结合主成分分析方法,借助遥感生态环境质量评价指数RSEI对阜新市的生态质量进行评估。结果表明:2000年、2008年和2016年,阜新市的生态质量总体呈上升趋势;2000—2016年间,研究区RSEI主要由1、2级向3、4、5级转变,生态质量变好和变坏的面积分别占总面积的53.28%和2.38%,生态质量变差的区域主要集中在阜新市东北的风沙区和西南部盆地区;而阜新市西南部盆地区主要是市区,该区生态环境质量变差主要在于近年来的城市快速发展,东北部的风沙区与科尔沁沙地接壤,该区的环境变差在于所处地理位置以及防风固沙林中部分林木出现退化现象等,因此能否在快速城市化建设的同时重视生态环境的保护与修复,成为阜新市生态环境质量变化的重要决定因素。     

Young-of-the-year fish assemblages as an alternative to adult fish monitoring for ecological quality evaluation of running waters

Studies on the Upper Mississippi River, particularly over the last 15 years, have contributed to our understanding of trophic processes in large rivers. The framework established by earlier population-specific studies, however, cannot be overlooked. Examination of the feeding habits of fish ranging from planktivores to piscivores gave the first indication that trophic processes were influenced by the spatial complexity and annual hydrological patterns of river-floodplain ecosystems. Experimental studies, which have often been considered impossible or impractical in large rivers, demonstrated the potential for biotic controls of system dynamics through predator–prey and competitive interactions. Such studies have been particularly helpful in understanding the potential impact of non-native species, including zebra mussels and Asian carp, to biodiversity and secondary production. Our understanding of riverine ecosystem function expanded greatly as food web studies began the application of a new tool—natural stable isotopes. Studies employing stable isotopes illustrated how food webs in a number of large rivers throughout the world are supported by the autochthonous production of microalgae. This study, coupled with other studies testing the prevailing models of riverine ecosystem function, has brought us to a point of better understanding the nature of river ecosystem functions. It is through looking back at the earlier studies of fish diet that we should realize that the temporal and spatial complexities of river ecosystem function must still be addressed more fully. This and a better grasp of the significance of the arrangement of patches within the riverine landscape will prove beneficial, as we assess the appropriate scale of river rehabilitation with an eye on how rehabilitation promotes productivity within complex ecosystems, including the Upper Mississippi River.     

粘细菌生态多样性的初步研究

通过对河北,云南,青藏高原不同地区的粘细菌进行生态多样的研究,从42个样品中分离得到了10个属（Archangium,Myxococcus,Cystobacter,Corallococcus,Melittangium,Sorangium,Polyangium,Chondromyces,Angiococccus,Stigmatella)的150余株粘细菌,其中包括一些尚未有描述的菌株,有待鉴定,根据这些菌株的子实体结构,菌落形态,营养细胞,粘孢子形态等特征将它们初步鉴定到属,对这些特有自然生态环境的粘细菌按不同地点,植被,营养基质进行统计比较,结果表明,粘细菌生态分布极为广泛,具有丰富的生态多样性,以上结果为粘细菌生物资源的有效开发利用奠定了基础。     

Towards a multimetric index for ecological assessment of Mediterranean flatland ponds: the use of macroinvertebrates as bioindicators

Fifty-five macroinvertebrate metrics were tested for their response to pond condition in 41 ponds of northwest Spain to develop a preliminary multimetric index for ecological assessment of Mediterranean flatland ponds. Stressor specific response of individual attributes to eutrophication and habitat alteration was also investigated to identify differences in the responses of metrics to single stressors and elucidate how this might affect the performance of the final index. Several combinations were tested using discrimination efficiency (25th percentile of slightly impaired sites for metrics decreasing with perturbation and 75th percentile of slightly impaired sites for metrics increasing with perturbation) and Mann–Whitney U-test with Bonferroni adjustment (P < 0.001). The final index comprised five measures (generic richness of Chironominae, generic richness of Dytiscidae + Odonata + Tanypodinae, relative richness of Chironomidae, % Macropelopini and Shannon index) and discriminated between acceptable (good) and unacceptable (moderate) conditions with more than 86% efficiency. Moreover, all the five measures included in the final index showed unidirectional responses to eutrophication, decreasing as eutrophication increased. In contrast, the effect of habitat alteration was less clear, especially in ponds in best available conditions where a vegetation belt of shrubs and trees prevented growing of macrophitic vegetation on shores and consequently associated fauna. Interestingly, none of the functional groups (e.g. % predators and % collector–gatherers) were sensitive to degradation. Handling editor: K. Martens     

Current status and ecological characteristics of the Chinese temperate bass Lateolabrax sp., an alien species in the western coastal waters of Japan

A total of 263 adult and preadult Chinese temperate bass Lateolabrax sp. caught at 20 locations in the coastal waters of western Japan from October 1999 to September 2008 were used for age, growth and maturity examinations. Examination of marginal increments of transverse sections of otoliths showed that rings (opaque zones) were formed once a year from spring to summer. According to the number of rings and the sampling month, ages were assigned to individuals. For males, we obtained the following von Bertalanffy growth equation: L(t) = 618{1 − e^{−0.420 (t + 0.273)}}. Females attain sizes over 600 mm SL mainly after 5 years of age and attain sizes of 850–1,000 mm SL at 8–10 years and over 1,100 mm SL about 15 years. Based on histological examinations of gonads and seasonal changes in gonadosomatic indices, potential spawning period was confirmed during mid-October to late January. In males, the minimum size and age at first maturity were estimated as 380 mm SL and 2 years old, respectively, though most males reach sexual maturity at 3–4 years old. Furthermore, female specimens at the mature or developing stages were over 470 mm SL and 4 years old.     

The CARLIT method for the assessment of the ecological quality of European Mediterranean waters: Relevance,robustness and possible improvements

The application of the European Union (EU) Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires the assessment of the ecological status (ES) of coastal waters in order to detect environmental changes and implement management plans to prevent their further deterioration. The ES of a water body (WB) has to be assessed on the basis of the status of several biological indicators, referred to as biological quality elements (BQE), such as phytoplankton, macroalgae, seagrasses, macroinvertebrates and fish. We present the most extensive assessment ever undertaken of the ES of Mediterranean waters, by means of the CARLIT index, the most widely used index for the Mediterranean Sea. This index is based on the Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) between a measured value of Ecological Quality (EQ) and a value corresponding to a reference site. This assessment is based on an extensive field study, covering the whole of the Mediterranean French coasts (including Corsica), 40 WBs and ∼2 970 kilometres of shore (at a 1/2 500 scale). The original Ballesteros CARLIT method is compared to the Nikolić modified method, and we have undertaken the challenge of developing an alternative new simplified CARLIT method. This simplified method, which requires less expert judgement, is easier to implement by local authorities, and provides results similar overall to those of the original method. Previous attempts, if any, to correlate EQRs with anthropogenic stressors (through pressure indices) were mainly based upon land uses or on comprehensive lists of stressors, some spatially very sporadic, temporally highly variable, non-representative of the WB and with the impact poorly established on species and communities. To date, the LUSI (Land Uses Simplified Index) and the MA-LUSI-WB have been the most widely used pressure indices. Here, we propose a new pressure index (HAPI) taking into consideration the possible shortcomings of previous indices. It takes into account the actual pressures at community levels considered by the CARLIT method. It accounts well for the EQR values of the study area, as evidenced by the high correlation coefficient between EQRs and HAPI, better than that of the other pressure indices. The present study provides a comprehensive view of the ES of the French Mediterranean coasts. Surprisingly, the picture is far less cause for concern than expected, although this could result from an artefact due to the focus on superficial waters and habitats inherent to the CARLIT method. Where two successive assessments were performed (23 WBs, 2007–2010 vs 2012–2015), the results were similar, which stresses the robustness of the method and/or the relative stability over time of the overall ES of the WBs, and suggests that the successive assessments could be carried out at low frequency.     

Development of a phytoplankton indicator system for the ecological assessment of brackish coastal waters (German Baltic Sea coast)

The implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires the development of ecologically-based classification systems for anthropogenically-induced eutrophication in all types of water bodies. Due to the inherent high temporal and spatial variability of hydrological and geochemical parameters of the coastal waters of the southern Baltic Sea, discrimination between anthropogenic impact and natural variability is necessary. The development of statistical methods for this discrimination was the main aim of this study. These methods were used to derive indicative phytoplankton parameters for different stages of eutrophication for the investigation area. For this purpose, a long-term phytoplankton data series was analysed, which covered a broad salinity and eutrophication gradient. In order to detect eutrophication effects, the analysis was restricted to phytoplankton spring bloom events and to the salinity range between 5 and 10 psu, i.e. superimposing seasonal and hydrodynamic effects were eliminated. An artificial abiotic degradation vector was developed based on four typical water quality parameters. A total of 11 potentially indicative phytoplankton parameters on different taxonomical levels arose from a correlation analysis with this degradation vector. These indicators were then tested for their ability to discriminate between three eutrophication levels. Finally, seven phytoplankton indices could be proposed: total phytoplankton biovolume, the percentage of diatoms and the biovolume of different size ranges of diatoms and one indicative species (Woronichinia compacta). Guest editors: A. Razinkovas, Z. R. Gasiūnaitė, J. M. Zaldivar & P. Viaroli European Lagoons and their Watersheds: Function and Biodiversity     

Assessing the ecological status in species-poor systems: A fish-based index for Mediterranean Rivers (Guadiana River,SW Spain)

The assessment of the ecological status of freshwater ecosystems is a key issue for many international laws such as the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in light of the actual impoverished status of these ecosystems. Different multimetric approaches have been successfully developed in different freshwater environments. However, multimetric indices are difficult to apply to Mediterranean rivers basins, characterized by freshwater fish communities very low in species richness and support a high number of endemics with generalist and opportunistic life strategies. Here we follow a site-specific approach to develop an adaptation of the multimetric procedure usually used in Indices of Biotic Integrity (IBI), resulting in the Index of Community Integrity (ICI). We modeled the presence–absence of 10 native freshwater fish species from the Guadiana River basin using the Assessment of Nearest Neighbor Analyses (ANNA) model, to assess the deviation of the observed and expected community composition at reference condition. ANNA, which is a multi-species model, allowed incorporating in the index some rare species, though not all of them present in the basin. Deviations were transformed into probabilities of belonging to a reference site and species by species measures were then integrated in a final score. The use of presence–absence only data reduces potential errors associated with estimations of species’ abundance and its seasonal changes, which is especially important in Mediterranean environments. The ICI was sensitive to both habitat degradation and the degree of dominance of non-native species within the freshwater fish community (or biotic perturbation), which have been traditionally overlooked in IBIs, but was unresponsive to natural sources of variation. Given the site-specific nature and the simplicity of the index that we propose here, we expect it to be applicable to other Mediterranean basins for which predictive models can be produced.