Recent History and Geography of Virtual Water Trade

The global trade of goods is associated with a virtual transfer of the water required for their production. The way changes in trade affect the virtual redistribution of freshwater resources has been recently documented through the analysis of the virtual water network. It is, however, unclear how these changes are contributed by different types of products and regions of the world. Here we show how the global patterns of virtual water transport are contributed by the trade of different commodity types, including plant, animal, luxury (e.g., coffee, tea, and alcohol), and other products. Major contributors to the virtual water network exhibit different trade patterns with regard to these commodity types. The net importers rely on the supply of virtual water from a small percentage of the global population. However, discrepancies exist among the different commodity networks. While the total virtual water flux through the network has increased between 1986 and 2010, the proportions associated with the four commodity groups have remained relatively stable. However, some of the major players have shown significant changes in the virtual water imports and exports associated with those commodity groups. For instance, China has switched from being a net exporter of virtual water associated with other products (non-edible plant and animal products typically used for manufacturing) to being the largest importer, accounting for 31% of the total water virtually transported with these products. Conversely, in the case of The United states of America, the commodity proportions have remained overall unchanged throughout the study period: the virtual water exports from The United States of America are dominated by plant products, whereas the imports are comprised mainly of animal and luxury products.     

基于多区域投入产出分析的京津冀地区虚拟水核算

通过贸易与消费调控实现区域水资源优化配置已成为缓解地区水资源压力的途径之一。跨区域投入产出分析可为地区间虚拟水贸易战略提供依据。基于2012年京津冀地区投入产出表与生产用水量构建了跨地区虚拟水核算模型,计算了隐含在经济贸易中的虚拟水总量及各地区各部门的直接用水系数、完全用水系数和拉动系数,分析了各部门虚拟水进出口情况,识别了重点耗水部门。结果表明:京津冀地区呈现虚拟水净出口状态,其中净出口部门主要为北京的服务与交通业,河北的农业和制造业。京津冀的农业、矿业和水供应业在生产过程中直接消耗水量大,应注重提升用水效率及节水技术的开发;三地制造业、建筑业和服务与交通业的平均拉动系数较大,这说明其他部门生产活动对该部门依赖性较大,其单位产出的提高将带动整个地区更多虚拟水量的投入。此外,河北的农业和制造业为京津冀各部门输送了大量虚拟水,为各部门生产提供了支撑,是节水的重点部门,应着重调整其产业结构,并从直接和间接用水两方面入手减少水资源消耗。计算了京津冀地区不同部门的直接、间接水资源消耗、水资源消耗拉动系数,以及部门间的虚拟水贸易情况,结果可为该地区部门间水资源配置和虚拟水战略的制定提供基础。     

“双碳”目标下东北三省水-能源纽带关系及网络特征分析

厘清水-能源联动关系,优化水-能源消费结构是实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的首要途径。构建区域资源-经济投入产出模型,以2017年为基准年对东北三省水资源和能源消耗进行测算,并通过展布虚拟水-能源足迹的空间转移变化,分析部门资源流通状况,在此基础上耦合多源数据构建水-能源系统生态网络分析模型,探究水-能源网络耦合特征。结果显示：(1)2017年东北三省直接水资源消费总量为561.97亿m~3,能源隐含水总量为30.48亿m~3,水资源隐含能消费量为699.25万tce,直接能源消费量为40579.95万tce,虚拟水足迹为474.13亿m~3,虚拟能源足迹为54668.6万tce;(2)虚拟水足迹部门转移变化为：辽宁省最大输入路径为食品制造及烟草加工业-农业,吉林省和黑龙江省输入路径则相反;虚拟能源部门转移变化中最大流通部门分别为：建筑业-第三产业/金属冶炼及制品业、采选业-化学工业。(3)水-能源网络循环率均低于40‰,竞争关系是水-能源网络效用矩阵关系中主流关系;在三省中,吉林省水-能源网络的协作性最优,生态网络处于更为稳定的状态之中;水-能源网络耦合后,各省虚拟资源网络共生指数呈现不同程...     

基于投入产出分析的北京市虚拟水核算

城市化进程的加快与工农业的迅速发展使城市水消耗量日趋增加。水资源短缺不仅会造成居民生活质量下降,还会制约社会经济的可持续发展。从贸易和消费的角度核算虚拟水可为研究城市水资源管理提供新的视角。通过投入产出分析了构建了城市系统虚拟水核算模型,利用虚拟水直接和完全用水系数、虚拟水消费量等指标分析城市虚拟水消耗和虚拟水进出口特征。以北京市为例,利用2012年北京市投入产出表和部门的水资源消耗数据核算不同部门的用水系数、最终消费虚拟水量、虚拟水进出口贸易量及部门间虚拟水流转量。结果表明:北京市为虚拟水净进口城市,净进口虚拟水量6.77×10~9m~3,相当于北京市虚拟水用水总量(8.25×10~9m~3)的82%,农业和制造业为主要虚拟水进口部门;北京市虚拟水出口结构存在不合理之处,经济投入产出表中各部门出口总额占最终消费的79.9%,但出口产品消耗的虚拟水占了最终消费隐含虚拟水的85.04%,其中农产品消耗6.7%虚拟水但经济收益仅占1%,说明北京市出口以较大的虚拟水消耗量换取了较少的经济收益,需要减少虚拟水含量较大但经济价值不高的产品出口(如农产品);识别出的主要虚拟水流出-流入关系部门包括农业-制造业,农业-服务业和制造业-建筑业等部门的关联关系,可成为减少间接水消耗的关键路径。     

基于投入产出方法的甘肃省水足迹及虚拟水贸易研究

随着社会化进程的加快,地处西北内陆的甘肃省正面临日益严峻的水资源短缺危机,社会经济发展受到一定程度的制约,水生态环境也呈现出恶化的趋势。水足迹是近年来提出的衡量人类活动对于水生态系统影响的指标,能够帮助决策者制定水资源管理及保护的政策,从而实现地区水资源的可持续利用。运用单区域投入产出方法计算并分析了甘肃省1997、2002和2007年第一产业、第二产业和第三产业部门的虚拟水强度、水足迹以及虚拟水贸易情况。结果显示:(1)甘肃省第一产业的虚拟水强度最高,但呈现出逐年下降的趋势,水足迹也因此有所下降;(2)虚拟水贸易方面,甘肃省以虚拟水净出口为主,尤其是第一产业,每年虚拟水净出口量约全省总水资源量的10%。建议甘肃省继续巩固已有的节水成果,调整产业结构,大力发展节水型产业和高新技术产业。同时建议适当调整贸易格局,合理控制虚拟水出口,以缓解当地水资源短缺危机,保障地区水安全与生态安全。     

中国主要农产品虚拟要素贸易网络结构特征分析

据虚拟水概念定义虚拟要素,并将其划分为虚拟资源要素和虚拟生态要素两类,选取虚拟资源要素中的耕地要素和虚拟生态要素中的化肥/农药要素为研究对象,定量分析2002—2016年以粮食贸易为载体的虚拟耕地、虚拟化肥/农药要素的贸易量,构建虚拟要素贸易网络,通过复杂网络的研究方法,结果表明:2002—2016年我国主要农产品虚拟耕地、化肥/农药要素的贸易总量呈下降趋势,降幅分别约25.51%、8.01%;虚拟耕地要素网络节点入度较大的为长江中下游、华南、西南地区,出度较大的为黄淮海和东北地区,虚拟化肥/农药要素网络与之相反;地区间节点强度的差异性大,虚拟耕地要素差值最大可达1459.56万hm~2,虚拟化肥/农药要素达61.38万t;二者网络节点度和强度的累积分布均符合幂律分布规律,其尾部的"重尾"现象揭示了节点度和强度的高可变性以及网络结构的脆弱性;虚拟耕地要素的输入区网络同配,输出区网络异配,揭示了地区间耕地要素的流动既呈集聚又有分散的态势,虚拟化肥/农药要素网络节点相关性皆为减函数,网络异配,揭示了虚拟化肥/农药要素在八大区域间联通的状况。网络结构特征分析为研究网络抗毁性特征和网络的优化调控机制奠定基础,为中国粮食贸易格局和粮价制定以及各个地区的农业种植结构调整提供理论依据。     

Reduction and reallocation of water use of products in Beijing

The virtual water concept has received significant attention through manifesting the role of human activities such as consumption and international trade on water resources. However, few studies have focused on how the interactions of local supply chain exert impact on local water resources associated with virtual water flows. In this study, we introduce an indicator which is attached to the virtual water concept, termed the “internal water use of products” (IWUP), to examine the direct and indirect water use from local water supply for goods and services in Beijing for the years 1997, 2000, 2002, 2007, and 2010. This indicator links the pressure on local water resources to the final products with sectoral details, highlighting the importance of economic analysis in local water resource management. A structural decomposition analysis revealed that the increase in economic water productivity would have caused Beijing's IWUP to decrease by 196% from 1997 to 2010, if other determining factors remained constant. Such great efficiency improvements have allowed Beijing to fulfill its objectives of economic growth, whilst in the meantime reducing the water used in production. However, we also found that production structure adjustment would increase the IWUP, mainly due to a shift from agricultural and industrial sectors to service sectors.     

城市生态网络分析研究进展

自生态网络分析方法提出40多年来,其理论发展和应用实践不断拓展,但直至21世纪才不断引入到城市生态系统研究中,用以分析城市内部多个主体和多种生态流构成的关联网络。目前,城市生态网络分析集中于生态网络分析方法与指标的拓展及多尺度的应用研究,而生态网络分析方法又形成了上升性分析和环境元分析两大分支,多尺度应用涵盖了城市镶嵌的区域背景尺度和城市内部产业部门之间的细节尺度。然而,当前研究仍存在着多尺度融合、多种生态网络分析方法集成不足等问题,这限制了城市生态网络分析方法在城市规划设计中的应用。未来城市生态网络分析研究集中于如下3点:(1)开展多尺度城市生态网络分析,包括城市群-城市-园区/社区等,构建多级嵌套生态网络模型;(2)集成上升性与环境元分析方法,提出由外在表征到内在过程的城市生态系统评价模式及模拟方法;(3)强调自然节点在城市生态网络中的重要作用,形成社会经济节点与自然节点并重的生态网络模型,并强调构建多精度的生态网络模型服务于不同的研究目的。     

Ecological gradients as a framework for analysis of land-use change in East Africa

This paper discusses the ecological gradient as an organizing framework to assist understanding the complex interactions between societal and ecological processes underlying land-use change in East Africa. Detailed case studies on the gradients of the slopes of Mt Kilimanjaro, Kenya show how land-use change is responsive to the dynamics of both local and external driving forces. The study has shown that the distinct ecological conditions at the extremities of gradients are associated with specific land uses which may be different within livelihood systems such as for wet and dry season grazing. Access to water for cultivation, domestic use, livestock and wildlife is critical in determining the nature and distribution of livelihood systems. Land-use systems interact across the different ecological zones of the gradients characterized by vigorous spatial, cultural and economic interactions. Sometime conflicts occur between or within land-use/livelihood systems. There is strong evidence that the areas of higher economic potential remain advantaged compared with areas lower on the gradient. The ecological characteristics have been found to influence human activities and distribution. Interactions between societies are important in terms of trade, social relations and access to resources.     

基于生态网络的城市代谢结构模拟研究——以大连市为例

基于生态热力学的城市系统结构的研究是实现城市生态规划和环境管理等实际工作优化与决策的关键理论问题之一。基于生态热力学 流核算方法,建立大连市生态网络模型,通过路径分析探讨了代谢长度与代谢路径数量、连通性的变化关系,确定了城市代谢系统的基本营养结构,以及各组分间的作用途径;利用网络有效利用矩阵中正负号分布、数量比值,确定了城市代谢系统各组分间的作用方式、共生状况,最后揭示出固有网络结构中复杂的生态关系。结果表明:大连是具有一个高度竞争性的部门共生体,而且随着代谢长度的增加,城市代谢系统中各组分间的作用途径更为多样,代谢路径数量、连通性不断提高。该研究可为政策制定者确定如何在现有的经济基础上,避免支付高额生态成本和重复发达国家城市建设中的末端控制模式,推动社会系统的生态化转型实践,促进城市的健康发展。     

全球价值链分工对生态要素空间转移的影响——以iPhone6的水资源利用为例

随着生产与贸易不断向全球化发展,经济活动对生态环境的影响已不限于单一地区内,而形成了牵一发而动全身的全局性问题。产品的全球价值链分工所引致的生态要素转移逐渐成为关乎国家资源安全、社会可持续发展的关键事宜。基于生态要素核算的思想,本文首次以典型高科技产品iPhone6为研究对象,基于其零部件价值拆解数据与全球供应商分布数据,运用混合多区域投入产出模型对其生产端所引起的水资源使用与转移进行了系统核算。主要结论包括:(1)总体上,生产每单位iPhone6需使用7371m~3水资源,其生产对全球水供应具有较强依赖性。(2)地区上,iPhone6中体现的虚拟水主要来自29个国家或地区,围绕亚洲与欧美经济体形成两大集中分布;从国家看,苹果公司所在地美国仅占总量的51.66%,其他国家中虚拟水贡献最高的是中国,占比为39.05%。(3)生产中,主要引起了中国-美国、中国-日本、菲律宾和马来西亚-新加坡等从发展中国家向发达国家的大规模虚拟水转移,体现出iPhone6分工对全球水资源"纳贫济富"的再分配作用。(4)产业布局上,iPhone6生产所涉及的经济体与经济部门的虚拟水体现强度均低于世界全部门平均水平,新兴智能产品呈现出相对高效的水资源生产力。根据结果分析,我国应基于自身发展中国家特点,在如iPhone6等高科技智能产品的生产中聚焦更为核心、资源环境友好的分工环节,或在相对非核心的分工中努力提高自身资源节约能力,落实产业结构与资源整合等方面的转型战略,以实现可持续发展目标。     

城市生态基础设施管理研究进展

城市生态基础设施作为城市生态系统的重要组成部分,在维持自然生态过程稳定、促进社会经济发展、保障人居环境质量方面发挥着重要的作用。在快速城市化进程中,对城市生态基础设施进行科学的管理显得尤为重要。在重新明确城市生态基础设施管理概念和内涵的基础上,归纳提炼了4项管理原则,并对现有管理类型进行了梳理。对生态基础设施管理涉及的3个关键问题的常见解决方法进行了总结、分类,并对每类方法的优劣进行了分析讨论。针对此领域的工作做了展望。对于现有城市生态基础设施管理问题与方法的整合研究既有利于明确今后研究重点,也为城市生态基础设施管理提供了科学依据和案例参考。     

社会-生态网络方法研究进展

社会-生态系统是由一个或多个社会和生态子系统交互作用形成的复杂的、非线性的、动态耦合系统。理解社会与生态子系统之间的复杂交互关系对于实现有效、可持续的环境治理至关重要。社会-生态网络方法是网络理论在社会-生态交互作用研究中应用与发展的产物,在定量刻画社会-生态系统结构、分析系统动态变化、推动系统适应性治理等方面具有重大的应用潜力。系统梳理了国内外现有的社会-生态网络研究,首先从网络的类型、构建模式、分析方法3个方面介绍社会-生态网络方法,并阐述其在资源管理、社会-生态匹配、社会-生态适应性治理领域中的应用,探讨社会-生态网络方法在研究社会-生态交互作用中的优势和挑战,最后提出未来社会-生态网络研究的重点方向,即社会-生态网络的动态变化过程以及社会-生态网络结构与功能关系。研究旨在深化网络分析可用于描述人—自然关系的认识,为社会-生态系统的网络研究提供实践指导,以期促进社会-生态网络方法在我国社会-生态系统研究中的应用。     

A decision-analytic framework for impact assessment part I: LCA and decision analysis

Life-cycle assessments (LCAs) are conducted to satisfy the aspiration of decision makers to consider the environment in their decision making. This paper reviews decision analysis and discusses how it can be used to structure the assessment and to integrate characterization and valuation. The decision analytic concepts of objectives (goals) and attributes (indicators of the degree to which an objective is achieved) are used to describe steps of the assessment of the entire impact chain. Decision analysis distinguishes among different types of objectives and attributes; it describes how these relate to each other. Impact indicators such as the Human Toxicity Potential are constructed attributes. A means-ends objectives network can show how the different constructed attributes relate to the objective of protecting the environment. As LCA takes disparate environmental impacts into account, it needs to assess their relative importance. Trade-off methods in decision analysis are grouped into utility theory and multicriteria decision aids; they have different advantages and disadvantages, but are all more sophisticated than simple weighting. The performance of the different trade-off methods has not yet been tested in an LCA context. In the second part of the paper, we present criteria for the development of characterization methods.     

Virtual water and water footprints do not provide helpful insight regarding international trade or water scarcity

Many authors have estimated the virtual water content of good and services traded internationally, and many have calculated national water footprints that account for the volumes of virtual water imported and exported. Some authors have suggested that international trade of virtual water has been harmful to selected exporting countries with limited water endowments. Some suggest also that current patterns of international trade should be rearranged to make better use of global water resources. Yet, countries do not actually trade in virtual water. They trade in goods and services for which water is one of many inputs. Wise choices regarding water resources and smart strategies regarding international trade cannot be determined by focusing on water alone. The notions of virtual water and water footprints are not helpful indicators of optimal strategies regarding water resources, particularly when considering issues such as water scarcity or international trade. I describe four perspectives regarding virtual water and water footprints, with the goal of demonstrating the inadequacies of these notions in policy discussions and in efforts to determine the optimal allocation and use of water resources. The four perspectives are: (1) international trade should not be modified or regulated to reflect the virtual water content of traded commodities or water footprints in the countries of trading partners, (2) countries do not save water by engaging in virtual water trade, (3) consumers in one country cannot alleviate water scarcity or improve water quality in other countries, and (4) water footprints are not analogous to carbon or ecological footprints.     

Numerical Relations and Skill Level Constrain Co-Adaptive Behaviors of Agents in Sports Teams

Similar to other complex systems in nature (e.g., a hunting pack, flocks of birds), sports teams have been modeled as social neurobiological systems in which interpersonal coordination tendencies of agents underpin team swarming behaviors. Swarming is seen as the result of agent co-adaptation to ecological constraints of performance environments by collectively perceiving specific possibilities for action (affordances for self and shared affordances). A major principle of invasion team sports assumed to promote effective performance is to outnumber the opposition (creation of numerical overloads) during different performance phases (attack and defense) in spatial regions adjacent to the ball. Such performance principles are assimilated by system agents through manipulation of numerical relations between teams during training in order to create artificially asymmetrical performance contexts to simulate overloaded and underloaded situations. Here we evaluated effects of different numerical relations differentiated by agent skill level, examining emergent inter-individual, intra- and inter-team coordination. Groups of association football players (national – NLP and regional-level – RLP) participated in small-sided and conditioned games in which numerical relations between system agents were manipulated (5v5, 5v4 and 5v3). Typical grouping tendencies in sports teams (major ranges, stretch indices, distances of team centers to goals and distances between the teams'' opposing line-forces in specific team sectors) were recorded by plotting positional coordinates of individual agents through continuous GPS tracking. Results showed that creation of numerical asymmetries during training constrained agents'' individual dominant regions, the underloaded teams'' compactness and each team''s relative position on-field, as well as distances between specific team sectors. We also observed how skill level impacted individual and team coordination tendencies. Data revealed emergence of co-adaptive behaviors between interacting neurobiological social system agents in the context of sport performance. Such observations have broader implications for training design involving manipulations of numerical relations between interacting members of social collectives.     

基于投入产出表的北京市产业生态效率

提高生态效率对协调经济发展与环境保护的关系至关重要。为了了解北京市产业转型过程中各产业部门生态效率的变化趋势,识别提高影响北京市产业生态效率的关键部门,基于北京市投入产出表,运用指标体系法,选取水资源效率,以及废水、二氧化硫、工业固体废弃物的环境效率作为生态效率的衡量指标,核算了北京市2007、2010和2012年各部门的水资源效率以及2005、2007和2010年各部门的环境效率,并比较分析了各部门的水资源的完全用水系数以及污染物的完全排放系数,计算各部门之间完全排放量的相互贡献比例,识别了提高生态效率的关键部门。研究结果:(1)2007—2012年,北京市各部门水资源效率和2005—2010年废水、二氧化硫(SO_2)、工业固体废弃物的环境效率整体呈波动上升趋势。(2)农林牧渔业和废品废料部门是提高水资源效率的关键部门。(3)水的生产和供应业、化学工业、食品制造及烟草加工业、纺织业和造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业是提高废水环境效率的关键部门。(4)石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业、非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力及热力的生产和供应业是提高SO_2环境效率的关键部门。(5)煤炭开采和洗选业、金属矿采选业、木材加工及家具制造业、非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力及热力的生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业是提高工业固体废弃物环境效率的关键部门。     

基于传统生态智慧的江南水网空间韧性机制及实践启示

传统江南水网空间是一种典型的社会—生态系统,人文社会系统和自然生态系统之间的良性互动对于其韧性构建有着重要的积极作用。基于柯林斯等人提出的压力—冲击动态（PPD）模型,以平江府为典型代表,研究传统江南水网空间如何通过生态系统服务的桥梁搭建水网物质空间与人类社区发展之间的联系,从而厘清社会—生态系统在此过程中如何培育、优化和提升江南水网空间韧性。在此基础上,创新性地从生态系统服务供需关系的角度提出社会—生态韧性构建的生态智慧,并倡导以恢复力、适应力与变革力韧性机制培育为导向的、江南地区构建现代社区实践的若干启示,旨在引导江南水网空间实现具有韧性的社会—生态系统转型发展。     

Discovering Preferential Patterns in Sectoral Trade Networks

We analyze the patterns of import/export bilateral relations, with the aim of assessing the relevance and shape of “preferentiality” in countries’ trade decisions. Preferentiality here is defined as the tendency to concentrate trade on one or few partners. With this purpose, we adopt a systemic approach through the use of the tools of complex network analysis. In particular, we apply a pattern detection approach based on community and pseudocommunity analysis, in order to highlight the groups of countries within which most of members’ trade occur. The method is applied to two intra-industry trade networks consisting of 221 countries, relative to the low-tech “Textiles and Textile Articles” and the high-tech “Electronics” sectors for the year 2006, to look at the structure of world trade before the start of the international financial crisis. It turns out that the two networks display some similarities and some differences in preferential trade patterns: they both include few significant communities that define narrow sets of countries trading with each other as preferential destinations markets or supply sources, and they are characterized by the presence of similar hierarchical structures, led by the largest economies. But there are also distinctive features due to the characteristics of the industries examined, in which the organization of production and the destination markets are different. Overall, the extent of preferentiality and partner selection at the sector level confirm the relevance of international trade costs still today, inducing countries to seek the highest efficiency in their trade patterns.