Past and potential future population dynamics of three grouse species using ecological and whole genome coalescent modeling

Studying demographic history of species provides insight into how the past has shaped the current levels of overall biodiversity and genetic composition of species, but also how these species may react to future perturbations. Here we investigated the demographic history of the willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta), and black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) through the Late Pleistocene using two complementary methods and whole genome data. Species distribution modeling (SDM) allowed us to estimate the total range size during the Last Interglacial (LIG) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as well as to indicate potential population subdivisions. Pairwise Sequentially Markovian Coalescent (PSMC) allowed us to assess fluctuations in effective population size across the same period. Additionally, we used SDM to forecast the effect of future climate change on the three species over the next 50 years. We found that SDM predicts the largest range size for the cold‐adapted willow grouse and rock ptarmigan during the LGM. PSMC captured intraspecific population dynamics within the last glacial period, such that the willow grouse and rock ptarmigan showed multiple bottlenecks signifying recolonization events following the termination of the LGM. We also see signals of population subdivision during the last glacial period in the black grouse, but more data are needed to strengthen this hypothesis. All three species are likely to experience range contractions under future warming, with the strongest effect on willow grouse and rock ptarmigan due to their limited potential for northward expansion. Overall, by combining these two modeling approaches, we have provided a multifaceted examination of the biogeography of these species and how they have responded to climate change in the past. These results help us understand how cold‐adapted species may respond to future climate changes.     

Small-scale habitat use of black grouse (Tetrao tetrix L.) and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica Thienemann) in the Austrian Alps

We investigated the small-scale habitat use of two grouse species, black grouse (Tetrao tetrix L.) and rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica Thienemann) in a study area in the Austrian Central Alps in summer. To build habitat suitability models, we applied multiple logistic regression using presence–absence data from fieldwork as the response variable and a set of habitat characteristics as explanatory variables, respectively. To gain a better understanding of the mechanisms that drive habitat selection, we tested for two-way interaction terms before excluding any variables from the initial variable set. Four explanatory variables significantly contributed to the black grouse model: dwarf shrub cover, dwarf shrub height, patchiness and ant hills. The final model for rock ptarmigan contained three explanatory variables: dwarf shrub cover, rock cover and dwarf shrub height. Most notably, the interaction terms dwarf shrub cover × patchiness in the black grouse model and dwarf shrub cover × dwarf shrub height, rock cover × dwarf shrub height in the rock ptarmigan model point out trade-off mechanisms between food, cover and overview providing features. Thus, our models do not only identify the parameters that mainly drive habitat selection, but also deepen our understanding about the causal relationships between these factors. Therefore, the information gained in this study allows for a deduction of appropriate habitat management strategies and supports conservation efforts of local stakeholders.     

Territory occupancy rate of goshawk and gyrfalcon: no evidence of delayed numerical response to grouse numbers

Two recent studies on territory occupancy rates of goshawk Accipiter gentilis and gyrfalcon Falco rusticolus report a 2–3-year-delayed numerical response to grouse numbers, which is a requirement for a hypothesis of predator-generated grouse cycles. The time lags were assumed to reflect the average age of sexual maturity in the raptor species. In southern Norway, however, subadult (two-year-old) goshawk hens occupied only 18–25% of territories where occupancy was not recorded in the preceding year, and there was no significant relationship between the proportion of subadults among recruits and grouse indices two years earlier. We argue that territory occupancy rates are not appropriate indices of total raptor population levels, but rather reflect the proportion of territorial pairs that attempt to nest. Because this depends on the body condition of the hens, fluctuations in other important winter resident prey species (most important for the goshawk) and winter weather (most important for the gyrfalcon) should also be addressed. During 1988–2006, the annual proportion of goshawk territories with recorded nesting attempts in southern Norway was most closely related to the preceding autumn’s population indices of black grouse Tetrao tetrix and mountain hare Lepus timidus, whereas the annual proportion of gyrfalcon territories with observations of falcons or with confirmed breeding attempts in central Norway were best explained by population indices of willow grouse Lagopus lagopus and ptarmigan L. mutus from the previous autumn, and by December temperatures. Hence, our studies do not support the predation hypothesis for grouse cycles.     

Diet of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos during the breeding season in Sweden

During a five-year period, 1975–1979, a total of 2881 prey individuals of 65 prey species were collected at 162 golden eagle nests from northern Sweden and from the island of Gotland. In northern Sweden birds are taken in higher numbers than mammals but calculated as weight the two categories are of equal importance, The main prey during the breeding season are capercaillie, black grouse, willow grouse, ptarmigan, mountain hare and reindeer fawns which together form 91% of the total food biomass. The capercaillie and the black grouse are taken more in the southern part of the coniferous region than in the northern. In contrast, in northern areas, reindeer fawns are more preyed upon than in the South, Ptarmigan and willow grouse are the most commonly captured prey species in mountain areas. The total number of reindeer fawns taken (dead and/or alive) by the Swedish golden eagle population during one summer is estimated at 600 individuals. On Gotland the golden eagles take mammals more often than in its northern distribution area. Rabbit and hedgehog arc the most important species.     

Pyrenean ptarmigans decline under climatic and human influences through the Holocene

In Europe, the Quaternary is characterized by climatic fluctuations known to have led to many cycles of contraction and expansion of species geographical ranges. In addition, during the Holocene, historical changes in human occupation such as colonization or abandonment of traditional land uses can also affect habitats. These climatically or anthropically induced geographic range changes are expected to produce considerable effective population size change, measurable in terms of genetic diversity and organization. The rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta) is a small-bodied grouse occurring throughout Northern hemispheric arctic and alpine tundra. This species is not considered threatened at a continental scale, but the populations in the Pyrenees are of concern because of their small population size, geographical isolation and low genetic diversity. Here, we used 11 microsatellites to investigate genetic variations and differentiations and infer the overall demographic history of Pyrenean rock ptarmigan populations. The low genetic variability found in these populations has been previously thought to be the result of a bottleneck that occurred following the last glacial maximum (i.e., 10 000 years ago) or more recently (i.e., during the last 200 years). Our results clearly indicate a major bottleneck affecting the populations in the last tenth of the Holocene. We discuss how this decline can be explained by a combination of unfavorable and successive events that increased the degree of habitat fragmentation.     

Where is the pulse to have the finger on? A retrospective analysis of two decades of Alpine Galliforms (Aves: Galliformes) census and game bag data in Italy

Information on the abundance of the Italian populations of black grouse (Lyrurus tetrix), Alpine rock ptarmigan (Lagopus muta helvetica) and Alpine rock partridge (Alectoris graeca saxatilis) rely only on extrapolations of local data to the national scale, since there is no national standardized survey. Consequently, their status is virtually unknown. We performed a first-ever assessment of a medium-term (1996–2014) population trend of these species using and comparing post-breeding count and bag data at hunting district scale. These data were collected from various authorities in charge of wildlife management and allowed us to test the influence of hunting policies on the estimated trends. Rock partridge showed a stable trend with numbers fluctuating between years, while there was evidence of a severe decline for rock ptarmigan. No general conclusion could be drawn for the black grouse, as we detected lack of consistency of count and bag data. Counts were greatly overdispersed as a result of an uneven count effort among hunting districts. Adding the game management authority as model covariate resulted in more robust trend estimations, suggesting a significant effect of different policies that emerged also as similar hunting pressure across species within authorities. Hunting effort variation over the time was instead negligible. Species-specific game management bias is discussed. Our results highlight the need for a survey scheme or guidelines to be applied uniformly at a national scale.     

Demographic consequences of age-structure in extreme environments: population models for arctic and alpine ptarmigan

Organisms living in arctic and alpine environments are increasingly impacted by human activities. To evaluate the potential impacts of global change, a better understanding of the demography of organisms in extreme environments is needed. In this study, we compare the age-specific demography of willow ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus) breeding at arctic and subalpine sites, and white-tailed ptarmigan (L. leucurus) breeding at an alpine site. Rates of egg production improved with age at the alpine and subalpine sites, but the stochastic effects of nest and brood predation led to similar rates of annual fecundity among 1-, 2-, and 3+-year-old females. All populations had short generation times (T<2.7 years) and low net reproductive rates (R ₀<1.2). Stable age distributions were weighted towards 1-year-old females in willow ptarmigan (>59%), and to 3+-year-old females in white-tailed ptarmigan (>47%). High damping ratios (ρ>3.2) indicated that asymptotic estimates were likely to match natural age distributions. Sensitivity and elasticity values indicated that changes in juvenile survival would have the greatest impact on the finite rate of population change (λ) in willow ptarmigan, whereas changes to the survival of 3+-year-old females would have a greater effect in white-tailed ptarmigan. High survivorship buffers white-tailed ptarmigan in alpine environments against the potential effects of climate change on annual fecundity, but may make the species more sensitive to the effects of pollutants or harvesting on adult survival. Conversely, processes that reduce annual fecundity would have a greater impact on the population viability of willow ptarmigan in arctic and subalpine environments. If these same demographic patterns prove to be widespread among organisms in extreme environments, it may be possible to develop general recommendations for conservation of the biological resources of arctic and alpine ecosystems.     

Fine‐scale genetic structure in an eastern Alpine black grouse Tetrao tetrix metapopulation

Understanding genetic consequences of habitat fragmentation is crucial for the management and conservation of wildlife populations, especially in case of species sensitive to environmental changes and landscape alteration. In central Europe, the Alps are the core area of black grouse Tetrao tetrix distribution. There, black grouse dispersal is limited by high altitude mountain ridges and recent black grouse habitats are known to show some degree of natural fragmentation. Additionally, substantial anthropogenic fragmentation has occurred within the past ninety years. Facing losses of peripheral subpopulations and ongoing range contractions, we explored genetic variability and the fine‐scale genetic structure of the Alpine black grouse metapopulation at the easternmost fringe of the species’ Alpine range. Two hundred and fifty tissue samples and non‐invasive faecal and feather samples of eleven a priori defined subpopulations were used for genetic analysis based on nine microsatellite loci. Overall, eastern Alpine black grouse show similar amounts of genetic variation (H_O = 0.65, H_E = 0.66) to those found in more continuous populations like in Scandinavia. Despite of naturally and anthropogenically fragmented landscapes, genetic structuring was weak (global F_ST < 0.05), suggesting that the actual intensity of habitat fragmentation does not completely hamper dispersal, but probably restricts it to some extent. The most peripheral subpopulations at the edge of the species range show signs of genetic differentiation. The present study gives new insights into the population genetic structure of black grouse in the eastern Alps and provides a more fine‐scale view of genetic structure than previously available. Our findings will contribute to monitor the current and future status of the population under human pressures and to support supra‐regional land use planning as well as decision making processes in responsibilities of public administration.     

PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black‐and‐white Ficedula flycatchers

Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (N_e) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in N_e over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black‐and‐white flycatchers. N_e curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1–2 million years ago (Ma) at an N_e of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate N_e trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100–200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in N_e differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of N_e differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per‐site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data.     

Grouse dynamics and harvesting in Kainuu,northeastern Finland

We study the dynamics of the capercaillie, black grouse, hazel grouse and willow grouse in Kainuu game management district in northeastern Finland in the years 1989–2004. It appears that the 6–7 year periodicity that prevailed in this region from 1960s up to 1980s has now vanished in all species. The grouse data are modelled using a linear autoregressive model with lag terms for population dynamics including grouse harvest as annual bag and an index of winter severity (winter‐time area of Baltic Sea ice cover). We use the Akaike information criterion for selecting the best model for each species; first order lag is forced to the models. It turns out that a term is needed for harvesting (with a negative coefficient) in models for all species. For the capercaillie and the hazel grouse second order lag was included, for the black grouse and the willow grouse first order lag suffices. The willow grouse is the only species where the index of winter strength (with a negative coefficient) is needed in the model.     

Tracking the ice: Subterranean harvestmen distribution matches ancient glacier margins

Biogeographic studies often underline the role of glacial dynamism during Pleistocene (1.806–0.011 Mya) in shaping the distribution of subterranean species. Accordingly, it is presumed that present‐day distribution of most specialized cold‐adapted (cryophilic) cave‐dwelling species should bear the signatures of past climatic events. To test this idea, we modelled the distribution of specialized cold‐adapted subterranean alpine harvestmen (Arachnida: Opiliones: Ischyropsalididae: Ischyropsalis). We found that the distance from the glacier margins during Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; about 22,000 years ago) was the most important predictor of their present‐day distribution. In particular, the peak in the probability of occurrence of alpine subterranean Ischyropsalis was found to be in close proximity to the LGM glacier, with a sharp drop at a distance of 30 km from the ice margin. In light of the role played by past climatic events in determining the species current range, we briefly discuss their biogeographic history and the role played by glacial refugia dynamics in determining the current distribution of these species. We argue that low dispersal harvestmen such as our model species can be used as biological indicators for tracking past glaciations and other similar biogeographic events.     

Temporal genetic samples indicate small effective population size of the endangered yellow-eyed penguin

There is an increasing awareness that the long-term viability of endemic island populations is negatively affected by genetic factors associated with population bottlenecks and/or persistence at small population size. Here we use contemporary samples and historic museum specimens (collected 1888–1938) to estimate the effective population size (N _e) for the endangered yellow-eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes) in South Island, New Zealand, and evaluate the genetic concern for this iconic species. The South Island population of M. antipodes—constituting almost half of the species’ census size—is thought to be descended from a small number of founders that reached New Zealand just a few hundred years ago. Despite intensive conservation measures, this population has shown dramatic fluctuations in size over recent decades. We compare estimates of the harmonic mean N _e for this population, obtained using one moment and three likelihood based-temporal methods, including one method that simultaneously estimates migration rate. Evaluation of the N _e estimates reveals a harmonic mean N _e in the low hundreds. Additionally, the inferred low immigration rates (m = 0.003) agree well with contemporary migration rate estimates between the South Island and subantarctic populations of M. antipodes. The low N _e of South Island M. antipodes is likely affected by strong fluctuations in population size, and high variance in reproductive success. These results show that genetic concerns for this population are valid and that the long-term viability of this species may be compromised by reduced adaptive potential.     

Temporal dynamics of grouse populations at the southern edge of their distribution

Studies of grouse conducted at northern latitudes have shown that tetraonids frequently exhibit cyclic fluctuations in abundance but little is known about the dynamics of grouse species at the southerly edge of their range. Hunting statistics from four species of grouse based on 30 yr of data collected from 210 hunting areas were examined from the Dolomitic Alps in the province of Trentino. These data were summed to represent 18 time series from discrete mountain groups. Analyses identified cycles of ca 5 yr in the minority of rock ptarmigan Lagopus mutus and hazel grouse Bonasa bonasia populations. These cycles only showed significant negative autocorrelation at half the cycle period and were classified as phase-forgetting quasi-cycles. Cycles were not found in time series of black grouse Tetrao terix or capereaillie Tetrao urogallus. Correcting time series for hunting effort or hunting restrictions tended to increase the proportion of populations that exhibited cycles but no difference in the strength of second order density dependence, A linear first order density-dependent autoregressive model described the dynamics of most of the populations with the exception of a proportion of rock ptarmigan and black grouse populations where a non linear first order model provided the best tit. We compare the findings with studies conducted in Finland and suggest possible reasons for the reduced tendency to cycle in the populations of southern Europe.     

TEMPORAL ALLOZYME FREQUENCY CHANGES IN DENSITY FLUCTUATING POPULATIONS OF WILLOW GROUSE (LAGOPUS LAGOPUS L.)

The population density of willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus L.) in northern Scandinavia changes in synchrony with the cyclic density variations in populations of microtine rodents. To assess the genetic changes accompanying the variations in population number, allozyme variation was studied at 23 loci in 640 willow grouse, representing four mainland and one island locality sampled during high and low population density. The average heterozygosity (H = 8.3%) and proportion of polymorphic loci (P = 26%) is not lower in willow grouse than in avian species with a more stable demography; the recurrent population density changes do not appear to affect drastically the long term effective population size, presumably because of extensive migration. Significant allele frequency differences were found both between populations and between different density phases. The genetic distance (D; Nei, 1972) was, in about 50% of the cases, larger between two consecutive time periods than between two localities in a certain year. Spatial and temporal allele frequency variation each represented around 3% of the gene diversity. The temporal heterogeneity may be caused by nonrandom sampling of family groups, rather than drift of allele frequencies between generations due to small effective population size, as has been suggested for microtine species.     

Phylogeographic analyses suggest that a deciduous species (Ostryopsis davidiana Decne., Betulaceae) survived in northern China during the Last Glacial Maximum

Aim Palaeontologial data suggest that all temperate forest species in northern China migrated southwards during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and recolonized post‐glacially within the Holocene. We tested this assumption using phylogeographical studies of a temperate deciduous shrub species (Ostryopsis davidiana Decne., Betulaceae), which has a wide distribution in northern China. Location Northern China. Methods We sequenced two chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) fragments (trnL–trnF and psbA–trnH, together about 1300 bp in length) of 294 plants from 21 populations across the total distribution range of this species. We used maximum parsimony and haplotype network methods to construct phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes. Results The analysis of cpDNA variation identified eight haplotypes. A single haplotype was fixed in all populations except for one population that was polymorphic, having two haplotypes. The population subdivisions were extremely high (G_ST = 0.972 and N_ST = 0.974), suggesting very low gene flow between populations. Haplotypes clustered into two tentative clades, both of which occur in the southern region of the species’ range but only one of which occurs in the northern region. Across the sampled populations, the haplotype distributions were differentiated geographically. Main conclusions Our analyses suggest that multiple refugia were maintained across the range of O. davidiana in both northern (north of the Qing Mountains) and southern (south of the Qing Mountains) regions during the LGM rather than that the species survived only in the south and subsequently colonized northwards. The extremely low within‐population diversity of this species suggests strong bottleneck or founder effects within each fragmented region during the Quaternary climatic oscillations. These findings provide important clues for understanding range shifts and changes in within‐ and/or between‐population genetic diversity of temperate forests in response to past climatic oscillations in northern China.     

Nest loss in capercaillie and black grouse in relation to the small rodent cycle in southeast Norway

Summary The relationship between nest loss in boreal forest grouse and the fluctuations in small rodents was studied at Varaldskogen in southeast Norway during 1979–1986, covering two complete rodent cycles. Nest loss in capercaillie (N=174) and black grouse (N=81) was calculated according to Mayfield (1975) based on nests from radio-equipped hens (N=77) and nests found by other methods (N=178). Small rodent density was measured by snap trapping during spring and autumn. Losses varied as predicted by the classical alternative prey hypothesis (Hagen 1952 and Lack 1954, as elaborated by Angelstam et al. 1984): high losses during rodent crash years (85.5% capercaillie, 51% black grouse), and smaller losses during peak years (54.5% capercaillie, 32.5% black grouse). Losses were inversely related to autumn abundance of rodents in capercaillie (P<0.05), but the correlation was not significant for black grouse (0.10<P<0.20). In capercaillie, the only species with an adequate sample for analysis, no relationship was detected between spring density of rodents and nest loss. Losses during the prepeak years were nearly as high as during crash years, a result inconsistent with the model. We conclude that the numerical response of predators to their cyclic main prey (i.e. small rodents) probably play a main role during the low phase and prepeak year, whereas the dietary shift is most important during the peak and crash year of the cycle.     

Genetic diversity and differentiation among Lagopus lagopus populations in Scandinavia and Scotland: evolutionary significant units confirmed by SNP markers

Single Nucleotide Polymorphism in four Scandinavian populations of willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus) and two Scottish populations of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) were assessed at 13 protein‐coding loci. We found high levels of diversity, with one substitution every 55 bp as an average and a total of 76 unlinked parsimony informative SNPs. Different estimators of genetic diversity such as: number of synonymous and non‐synonymous sites, average number of alleles, number and percentage of polymorphic loci, mean nucleotide diversity (π_s, π_a) and gene diversity at synonymous and non‐synonymous sites showed higher diversity in the northern populations compared to southern ones. Strong levels of purifying selection found in all the populations together with neutrality tests conforming to neutral expectations agree with large effective population sizes. Assignment tests reported a clear distinction between Scandinavian and Scottish grouse suggesting the existence of two different evolutionary significant units. The divergence time between willow and red grouse ranging between 12 500 and 125 000 years, in conjunction with the presence of ‘specific’ markers for each subspecies prompt a reassessment of the taxonomical status of the Scottish red grouse.     

Niche shifting in response to warming climate after the last glacial maximum: inference from genetic data and niche assessments in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps)

During Pleistocene glacial‐interglacial cycles, the geographic range is often assumed to have shifted as a species tracks its climatic niche. Alternatively, the geographic range would not necessarily shift if a species can adapt in situ to a changing environment. The potential for a species to persist in place might increase with the diversity of habitat types that a species exploits. We evaluate evidence for either range shift or range stability between the last glacial maximum (LGM) and present time in the chisel‐toothed kangaroo rat (Dipodomys microps), an endemic of the Great Basin and Mojave deserts. We modeled how the species’ range would have changed if the climatic niche of the species remained conserved between the LGM and present time. The climatic models imply that if D. microps inhabited the same climatic niche during the LGM as it does today, the species would have persisted primarily within the warm Mojave Desert and expanded northwards into the cold Great Basin only after the LGM. Contrary to the climatic models, the mitochondrial DNA assessment revealed signals of population persistence within the current distribution of the species throughout at least the latest glacial‐interglacial cycle. We concluded that D. microps did not track its climatic niche during late Pleistocene oscillations, but rather met the challenge of a changing environment by shifting its niche and retaining large portions of its distribution. We speculate that this kind of response to fluctuating climate was possible because of ‘niche drifting’, an alteration of the species’ realized niche due to plasticity in various biological characters. Our study provides an example of an approach to reconstruct species’ responses to past climatic changes that can be used to evaluate whether and to what extent taxa have capacity to shift their niches in response to the changing environment – information becoming increasingly important to predicting biotic responses to future environmental changes.     

A genetic demographic analysis of Lake Malawi rock‐dwelling cichlids using spatio‐temporal sampling

We estimated the effective population sizes (N_e) and tested for short‐term temporal demographic stability of populations of two Lake Malawi cichlids: Maylandia benetos, a micro‐endemic, and Maylandia zebra, a widespread species found across the lake. We sampled a total of 351 individuals, genotyped them at 13 microsatellite loci and sequenced their mitochondrial D‐loop to estimate genetic diversity, population structure, demographic history and effective population sizes. At the microsatellite loci, genetic diversity was high in all populations. Yet, genetic diversity was relatively low for the sequence data. Microsatellites yielded mean N_e estimates of 481 individuals (±99 SD) for M. benetos and between 597 (±106.3 SD) and 1524 (±483.9 SD) individuals for local populations of M. zebra. The microsatellite data indicated no deviations from mutation–drift equilibrium. Maylandia zebra was further found to be in migration–drift equilibrium. Temporal fluctuations in allele frequencies were limited across the sampling period for both species. Bayesian Skyline analyses suggested a recent expansion of M. zebra populations in line with lake‐level fluctuations, whereas the demographic history of M. benetos could only be estimated for the very recent past. Divergence time estimates placed the origin of M. benetos within the last 100 ka after the refilling of the lake and suggested that it split off the sympatric M. zebra population. Overall, our data indicate that micro‐endemics and populations in less favourable habitats have smaller N_e, indicating that drift may play an important role driving their divergence. Yet, despite small population sizes, high genetic variation can be maintained.     

Inverted patterns of genetic diversity in continental and island populations of the heather Erica scoparia s.l.

Aim Using the heather Erica scoparia s.l. as a model, this paper aims to test theoretical predictions that island populations are genetically less diverse than continental ones and to determine the extent to which island and continental populations are connected by pollen‐ and seed‐mediated gene flow. Location Macaronesia, Mediterranean, Atlantic fringe of Europe. Methods Patterns of genetic diversity are described based on variation at two chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) loci and one nuclear DNA (nDNA) locus for 109 accessions across the entire distribution range of the species. Global patterns of genetic differentiation were investigated using principal coordinates analysis. Genetic differentiation between island and continental areas, estimations of pollen‐ and seed‐mediated gene flow, and the presence of phylogeographical signal were assessed by means of F_st /N_ST (continental scale) and F_ij/N_ij (local scale). Extant and past distribution ranges of the species were inferred from niche modelling using layers describing present and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) macroclimatic conditions. Results The Azores exhibited a significantly higher genetic diversity than the continent. The lowest levels of genetic differentiation were observed between the Azores and the western Mediterranean, and the diversity observed in the Azores resulted from at least two colonization waves. Within the Azores, kinship coefficients showed a significant and much steeper decrease with geographical distance in the cpDNA than in the nDNA. The distribution predicted by LGM models was markedly different from the current potential distribution, particularly in western Europe, where no suitable areas were predicted by LGM models, and along the Atlantic coast of the African continent, where LGM models predicted highly suitable climatic conditions. Main conclusions The higher diversity observed in Azorean than in continental populations is inconsistent with MacArthur and Wilson’s equilibrium model and derived theoretical population genetic expectations. This inverted pattern may be the result of extinction on the continent coupled with multiple island colonization events and subsequent allopatric diversification and lineage hybridization in the Azores. The results highlight the role of allopatric diversification in explaining diversification on islands and suggest that this process has played a much more significant role in shaping Azorean biodiversity than previously thought.