Effects of Landscape Segregation on Livelihood Vulnerability: Moving From Extensive Shifting Cultivation to Rotational Agriculture and Natural Forests in Northern Laos

This study investigates four decades of socio-economic and environmental change in a shifting cultivation landscape in the northern uplands of Laos. Historical changes in land cover and land use were analyzed using a chronological series of remote sensing data. Impacts of landscape change on local livelihoods were investigated in seven villages through interviews with various stakeholders. The study reveals that the complex mosaics of agriculture and forest patches observed in the study area have long constituted key assets for the resilience of local livelihood systems in the face of environmental and socio-economic risks. However, over the past 20 years, a process of segregating agricultural and forest spaces has increased the vulnerability of local land users. This process is a direct outcome of policies aimed at increasing national forest cover, eradicating shifting cultivation and fostering the emergence of more intensive and commercial agricultural practices. We argue that agriculture-forest segregation should be buffered in such a way that a diversity of livelihood opportunities and economic development pathways can be maintained.     

Traditional shifting agriculture: tracking forest carbon stock and biodiversity through time in western Panama

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) requires developing countries to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and removals from forests in a manner that is robust, transparent, and as accurate as possible. Although shifting cultivation is a dominant practice in several developing countries, there is still very limited information available on how to monitor this land‐use practice for REDD+ as little is known about the areas of shifting cultivation or the net carbon balance. In this study, we propose and test a methodology to monitor the effect of the shifting cultivation on above‐ground carbon stocks. We combine multiyear remote sensing information, taken from a 12‐year period, with an in‐depth community forest carbon stock inventory in Palo Seco Forest Reserve, western Panama. Using remote sensing, we were able to separate four forest classes expressing different forest‐use intensity and time‐since‐intervention, which demonstrate expected trends in above‐ground carbon stocks. The addition of different interventions observed over time is shown to be a good predictor, with remote sensing variables explaining 64.2% of the variation in forest carbon stocks in cultivated landscapes. Multitemporal and multispectral medium‐resolution satellite imagery is shown to be adequate for tracking land‐use dynamics of the agriculture‐fallow cycle. The results also indicate that, over time, shifting cultivation has a transitory effect on forest carbon stocks in the study area. This is due to the rapid recovery of forest carbon stocks, which results in limited net emissions. Finally, community participation yielded important additional benefits to measuring carbon stocks, including transparency and the valorization of local knowledge for biodiversity monitoring. Our study provides important inputs regarding shifting cultivation, which should be taken into consideration when national forest monitoring systems are created, given the context of REDD+ safeguards.     

Shifting Cultivation and Fire Policy: Insights from the Brazilian Amazon

Fires in humid tropical forests are increasingly frequent due to severe dry seasons, forest degradation and agricultural expansion. One agent implicated in current discourse surrounding tropical forest fires is the small-scale farming peasantry who rely on fire in swidden (shifting cultivation, slash-and-burn) agriculture. The environmental degradation associated with fire has led to government responses at multiple scales (international, national, state, regional) via policies aimed mainly at managing ignition sources. However, continued increase in forest fires suggests that these policies may be having limited impact and a fresh evaluation of current policy approaches to fire management is needed. We review fire policy measures with insights of caboclo farming practices and perspectives from Eastern Amazonia and examine the congruence between policy and practice. We demonstrate a significant disparity between policy requirements such as firebreaks and actual fire management practices, in which measures rarely meet requirements outlined in legislation. We explore the origins and the impacts of these disparities, focussing on smallholder farm-level management measures and local capacity. Incomplete knowledge coupled with marginal awareness of legal requirements served to propagate widespread erroneous beliefs in what these are. This analysis at multiple scales (international, national, state, regional) will contribute to developing greater congruence between fire policies and smallholder farming practices.     

Changes in the spatial variation of soil properties following shifting cultivation in a Mexican tropical dry forest

The role of secondary vegetation in restoring soil fertility during shifting cultivation in the tropics is well known. Yet the effect of secondary succession on the spatial patterns of soil properties has received little attention. To determine whether changes in the plant community as a result of shifting cultivation affect the scale of spatial dependence for biologically important soil nutrients, we sampled three dry tropical forest stands in Campeche, Mexico. These stands represented a gradient of cultivation history: one mature forest stand, a forest fallow that had undergone one cultivation-fallow cycle, and a forest fallow that had undergone two cultivation-fallow cycles. We used an analysis of semivariance to quantify the scale and magnitude of spatial dependence for organic matter content (OM), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), and aluminum (Al) in each stand. The scale of spatial dependence varied with cultivation history, but the degree of spatial dependence did not differ among stands. In the mature forest P and K were autocorrelated over distances >7.5 m. In the forest fallows 48–88% of the variation in soil P and K was autocorrelated over distances up to 1.1–5.1 m. In contrast, the range of autocorrelation for Al (∼2.5 m) did not differ among stands. We conclude that shifting cultivation changes the range of autocorrelation for biologically important soil nutrients at a scale that may influence plant growth. The finer scaled pattern of soil nutrients in forest fallows is likely to persist with continued shifting cultivation, since fallows are cleared every 3–15 years.     

Untangling a Decline in Tropical Forest Resilience: Constraints on the Sustainability of Shifting Cultivation Across the Globe

Shifting cultivators depend on forest biomass inputs to nourish their crops. For them, forest resilience has an immediate impact: it affects crop productivity. A decline in the rate of recovery following shifting cultivation would ultimately affect local, regional and global carbon budgets, with feedbacks to climate. Yet the long-term impacts of shifting cultivation have been quantified in only six locations. In this study, we reanalyze data from these locations to determine whether the rate of biomass recovery is the same from cycle to cycle. Further, using case studies in Southern Yucatan, Mexico and West Kalimantan, Indonesia, we investigate the ecological and socioeconomic factors that affect forest resilience and thus determine whether or not shifting cultivation is sustainable. The reanalysis links aboveground biomass recovery following shifting cultivation to site productivity, forest age, fallow length, history of cultivation, and soil texture. Across locations, biomass accumulation rate declines by 9.3 percent with each cycle of shifting cultivation. Per cycle change in biomass accumulation rate is significantly more negative in younger forests and forests that experience a shorter fallow period. However, more detailed analyses for two case studies suggest that a purely ecological framework is of limited effectiveness in explaining variability in the effect of repeated shifting cultivation. Rather, socioeconomic factors such as migration, subsidies, roads, and settlement history can alter the outcome of shifting cultivation by limiting the accumulation and use of local knowledge.     

Kofyar cash-cropping: Choice and change in indigenous agricultural development

Amid discussions of an agricultural crisis and the failure of largescale, mechanized, capitalintensive development schemes in Nigeria, the Kofyar of Plateau State provide a case study of farmers spontaneously expanding food crop production for the market, using indigenous lowenergy technology. Temporary, followed by permanent, migration from the Jos Plateau homeland to frontier settlements on the fertile Benue plains has been accompanied by a change from initial shifting cultivation in forest clearings to permanent, intensively tilled and fertilized homestead fields. Labor is organized primarily in households that have grown in size and complexity. Cooperative and exchange work groups are also important for meeting seasonal bottlenecks and providing the careful, disciplined cultivation that intensive agriculture requires. Kofyar now devote up to 50% of their labor to cash crops, and they purchase considerable quantities of manufactured goods and medical services. Their uncoerced adaptation to an environment of new land resources and market incentives suggests both the advantages of indigenous development with a minimum of state control or interference and the limitations of a conventional dependency theory perspective.     

Role of non-timber forest products in the economy of peripheral communities of knuckles national wilderness area of Sri Lanka: A farming systems approach

The Knuckles range of forests has been identified as a unique biological resource in Sri Lanka with much biodiversity. It is also important as a watershed which feeds the Mahaweli reservoir system. Having considered the present hazardous land-use practices such as cardamum production and shifting cultivation, the Knuckles range has been declared a national wilderness area. The Forest Department is in the process of preparing the management plan for the area. There are about 48 villages in the vicinity of the forest. This study attempts to estimate the composition of income in the peripheral communities, ticularly the extraction of non-timber forest products (NTFP) from this range of forests. Data were collected using structured questionnaires from 60 households in three villages in the vicinity of the forest. The rural economy is described using a farming systems approach and the net income contributed by each activity in the farming system was estimated. Results show that nine components of the farming system use resources from the village and the forest, with at least 47 plant species used by the villagers for different purposes. Cardamum production and shifting cultivation contribute significantly to the total income of the household, but the majority of households in the study depend upon forest resources to supply some portion of their income. Nevertheless, the monetary value of the annual income generated by NTFP is much lower than income from either cardamum production or shifting cultivation. If cardamum production and shifting cultivation are to be restricted under the conservation program, there could be additional pressure put on NTFP. Therefore, we suggest a study of the natural regen-eration capacity of selected NTFP; such information should be used in finalizing the management plan in the Knuckles range of forests.     

Human impacts on tropical forest dynamics

People living near or in tropical forest ecosystems have traditionally extracted forest products, i.e. timber, food and medicinal plants for their livelihood. Such practice does not create too much disturbance when the population is still sparse, and the product is used only for their own needs. When population pressure becomes greater, and when the motive of extraction is profit, then the disturbance become serious and created environmental problems. Major exploitation of the Indonesian rain forest for timber began in the 1960s and is continuing today. The lowland rain forests of Sumatra and Kalimantan have been particularly logged. Exploitation has often been destructive because Forest Department rules have been widely ignored. Moreover, once roads have given access to formerly inaccessible areas, farmers have often moved in after the timber companies and then cleared the relict, regenerating forest for either permanent or shifting cultivation. The traditional shifting cultivations have been practised for years, producing millions of ha of impoverished secondary types of forest, degraded lands and alang-alang (Imperata cylindrica) grasslands. Forests have also been lost through conversion of land to plantation agriculture and transmigration programmes, mining, construction roads and railways and also natural disturbances, such as drought and fire. This paper will discuss the human impact upon tropical forest dynamics in general, with examples from Indonesian and other Southeast Asia countries' tropical forests.     

Troublesome neighbours: Changing attitudes towards chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in a human-dominated landscape in Uganda

Long-term human–wildlife sympatry depends on the willingness and capacity of local people to coexist with wild animals. With human population growth and deforestation for agriculture, farmers increasingly live in proximity to wildlife, including large mammals of conservation concern. Understanding local perspectives and concerns regarding wildlife is essential for informing appropriate management strategies that reduce conflicts and promote sustainable coexistence. Social science approaches therefore have a critical role in integrated conservation programmes. We undertook an attitude survey to understand residents’ perspectives about sharing a landscape with chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in an unprotected forest–agriculture mosaic in Uganda. Interviews (n = 134) in 12 villages demonstrate residents’ ambivalence towards living alongside these protected yet potentially troublesome mammals. Chimpanzee behaviour is reported to have undergone recent changes. Residents claim apes increasingly enter villages for food, threaten people, and pose a particular threat to children's safety. Chimpanzee numbers are believed to have increased locally. Most interviewees fear chimpanzees, considering them dangerous. Crop losses to chimpanzees were widely reported. Farmers tolerate raiding of domestic fruits, but not cash-crops. Results demonstrate that attitudes towards wildlife are not fixed. Reported changes to chimpanzee behaviour are challenging villagers’ traditionally benign attitude towards them. Even so, residents acknowledge benefits to chimpanzees because they reportedly displace other crop-raiding wildlife which, unlike chimpanzees, damage important staple food crops. Survey findings are contextualised with respect to recent, major land-use changes in Uganda (clearance of unprotected forest for timber and agriculture) that have precipitated a sharp rise in farmer–chimpanzee interactions. We discuss the study's broader implications for protected mammal management and conflict mitigation in human-dominated landscapes, and ask whether it is appropriate to expect impoverished rural farmers to accommodate large-bodied mammals that pose a potential threat to their safety and livelihoods.     

Abundance and composition of forest-dwelling anurans in cashew plantations in a tropical semi-evergreen forest landscape

Plantation crops in tropical human-modified landscapes provide alternative habitats to biodiversity outside protected areas. The Western Ghats of India are home to a mosaic of closely spaced habitats, including forests and agroecosystems. Cashew is a widely grown plantation crop in the northern Western Ghats and is known to provide economic and societal benefits. However, its role as a supplementary habitat for anurans is not well understood. We assessed the factors that influence understorey anuran composition and abundance in cashew plantations, forest edges, and forest interiors in Tillari Conservation Reserve, Maharashtra. Species composition of cashew plantations differed significantly from forests and was positively influenced by understorey and canopy cover. Cashew plantations had a near equal abundance of anurans as that of forest edges and interiors, which could be due to the preponderance of habitat generalists. Understorey positively influenced anuran abundance while ambient temperature had a negative influence. Reduced understorey and low canopy cover represent habitat modifications that occur in cashew plantations. Such structural changes could lead to reduced environmental refuges for anurans, thereby exposing them to large variations in temperature and moisture. Cashew plantations in Tillari Conservation Reserve serve as supplementary habitats for anurans. That said, cashew cultivation practices and markets must be understood before biodiversity-friendly plantation practices are proposed.     

Resilience and Alternative Stable States of Tropical Forest Landscapes under Shifting Cultivation Regimes

Shifting cultivation is a traditional agricultural practice in most tropical regions of the world and has the potential to provide for human livelihoods while hosting substantial biodiversity. Little is known about the resilience of shifting cultivation to increasing agricultural demands on the landscape or to unexpected disturbances. To investigate these issues, we develop a simple social-ecological model and implement it with literature-derived ecological parameters for six shifting cultivation landscapes from three continents. Analyzing the model with the tools of dynamical systems analysis, we show that such landscapes exhibit two stable states, one characterized by high forest cover and agricultural productivity, and another with much lower values of these traits. For some combinations of agricultural pressure and ecological parameters both of these states can potentially exist, and the actual state of the forest depends critically on its historic state. In many cases, the landscapes’ ‘ecological resilience’, or amount of forest that could be destroyed without shifting out of the forested stability domain, declined substantially at lower levels of agricultural pressure than would lead to maximum productivity. A measure of ‘engineering resilience’, the recovery time from standardized disturbances, was independent of ecological resilience. These findings suggest that maximization of short-term agricultural output may have counterproductive impacts on the long-term productivity of shifting cultivation landscapes and the persistence of forested areas.     

Crop diversity and fallow management in a tropical deciduous forest shifting cultivation system

Shifting cultivation is important to many of the inhabitants of tropical forest regions. Much scientific research has been conducted on this form of agriculture in the humid tropics, but the drier portions of the tropics remain less studied. The shifting cultivation system practiced in the tropical deciduous forests of western Guerrero, Mexico, provides insight into such production systems, especially with regard to crop diversity and fallow characteristics. This system is characterized by low crop diversity, based primarily on maize (Zea mays)cultivation, and a general lack of fallow management. The farmers also utilize several strategies not common to many other regions, including highly seasonal labor allocation patterns, varying fallow cycle lengths, and the occasional application of chemical inputs.     

Changes in the soil after clearing tropical forest

Summary About one-and-a-half acres of tropical forest, of known mass and chemical composition, was cleared and burned. Soil changes during clearing and two years' cropping were studied.Following burning, approximately all the K, Ca, and Mg in the vegetation were accounted for by the rise in exchangeable K, Ca, and Mg in the soil. There was a marked rise in soil pH. A small but significant increase in C and N was attributed to admixture of parts of the vegetation with the soil.Following cultivation, there was a rapid loss of nutrients by leaching and erosion during the first year and a substantial loss of K and Mg, but smaller loss of Ca in the second year. Losses of calcium were less and of potassium more under the local practice of shifting cultivation than under cultivation treatments involving clearing of roots followed by bare fallow or a maize-cassava rotation. Depths of cultivation had little effect on nutrient losses. Losses of organic matter in the first year were rapid due to oxidation of unhumified material. They were much reduced in the second year. Greater production of food was obtained from the maize-cassava rotation than by local practice.     

Recovery of conservation values in Central African rain forest after logging and shifting cultivation

Secondary forests in Central Africa are increasing in importance for biodiversity conservation as old growth forests outside the few protected areas are disappearing rapidly. We examined vegetation recovery in a lowland rain forest area in Cameroon based on a detailed botanical survey of old growth forest and different-aged logging gaps (5–27 years) and shifting cultivation fields (10–60 years). Our analysis focuses on the long-term recovery of botanical conservation values by analysing trends in vegetation structure, species composition, species diversity and levels of endemism and rarity. In the total survey (4.25 ha), we recorded 834 species of which 23% were endemic to the Lower Guinea forest region. The proportion of endemic species was high in shrubs and low in herbs. Geographic range and (local) rarity were not significantly associated. The proportion of rare species (relative frequency <10%) was high in woody climbers and low in trees. In logging gaps, recovery of all vegetation characteristics was relatively quick (5–14 years). Recovery in shifting cultivation sites took longer (30–60 years). Endemic species were found to be highly sensitive to shifting cultivation practices and even after 50–60 years the level of endemism was still significantly lower compared to old growth forest. The proportion of rare species was not significantly different between disturbed sites and old growth forest. We conclude that secondary forests can contribute to biodiversity conservation, e.g. as buffer zones around protected areas. However, this contribution should be assessed differently between land use types and widespread versus endemic species.     

Natural Forest Biomass Estimation Based on Plantation Information Using PALSAR Data

Forests play a vital role in terrestrial carbon cycling; therefore, monitoring forest biomass at local to global scales has become a challenging issue in the context of climate change. In this study, we investigated the backscattering properties of Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data in cashew and rubber plantation areas of Cambodia. The PALSAR backscattering coefficient (σ⁰) had different responses in the two plantation types because of differences in biophysical parameters. The PALSAR σ⁰ showed a higher correlation with field-based measurements and lower saturation in cashew plants compared with rubber plants. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models based on field-based biomass of cashew (C-MLR) and rubber (R-MLR) plants with PALSAR σ⁰ were created. These MLR models were used to estimate natural forest biomass in Cambodia. The cashew plant-based MLR model (C-MLR) produced better results than the rubber plant-based MLR model (R-MLR). The C-MLR-estimated natural forest biomass was validated using forest inventory data for natural forests in Cambodia. The validation results showed a strong correlation (R² = 0.64) between C-MLR-estimated natural forest biomass and field-based biomass, with RMSE  = 23.2 Mg/ha in deciduous forests. In high-biomass regions, such as dense evergreen forests, this model had a weaker correlation because of the high biomass and the multiple-story tree structure of evergreen forests, which caused saturation of the PALSAR signal.     

Feeding Strategies of Brown Howler Monkeys in Response to Variations in Food Availability

Primates display varying degrees of behavioral flexibility that allow them to adjust their diet to temporal changes in food availability. This trait might be critical for the survival of folivorous-frugivorous species inhabiting small forest fragments, where the availability of food resources tends to be lower than in large fragments and continuous forests. However, the scarcity of studies addressing this issue hampers our understanding of the adaptive behaviors that favor the survival of these primates in low-quality habitats. We conducted a 36-mo study testing the hypothesis that brown howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) are able to adjust their diet in response to local and seasonal changes in resource availability. We compared the diet of six free-ranging groups inhabiting three small (<10 ha) and three large (>90 ha) Atlantic forest fragments in southern Brazil and estimated the temporal availability of their top food species (i.e., those species that together contribute ≥80% of total feeding records). We found that brown howlers exploited similarly rich diets in small (45, 54, and 57 plant species) and large (48, 51, and 56 species) fragments. However, intermonth diet similarity was higher for groups in small fragments, where howlers also fed on plant items from nine alien species. Fruits and leaves were the most consumed plant items in both small (42% and 49% of feeding records, respectively) and large (51% and 41%, respectively) fragments. The consumption of young leaves was higher in small than in large fragments, whereas the consumption of other plant items did not show a pattern related to fragment size. Regarding the contribution of growth forms as food sources, only the exploitation of palms showed a pattern related to fragment size. Palms contributed more to the diet of groups inhabiting large fragments. The availability of seasonal food items–ripe fruits and young leaves–influenced their consumption in both habitat types. Therefore, brown howlers cope with local and seasonal fluctuations in food availability by opportunistically exploiting resources. We believe that this feeding flexibility is a key component of the phenotypic plasticity that enables howlers to thrive in disturbed habitat patches, where periods of scarcity of preferred foods shall be more common.     

Eat your orchid and have it too: a potentially new conservation formula for Chinese epiphytic medicinal orchids

About a quarter of Chinese wild orchid species are used in traditional medicine or as health food supplements. The market demand for some species, such as those in the epiphytic genus Dendrobium, has diminished many wild populations to local extinction or dangerously small numbers. Conservation of these heavily exploited orchids currently relies on a two-pronged approach: establishing nature reserves and encouraging massive commercial cultivation in artificial settings. We argue that these measures are not sufficient to restore or maintain healthy wild populations, and augmentation and reintroduction of these species in natural forests are needed. We argue for an unconventional reintroduction approach, in which populations planted in natural forests are allowed to be sustainably harvested (restoration-friendly cultivation). Because Dendrobium orchids are epiphytic, restoration-friendly cultivation of these species will not be at the expenses of other native plants. In addition, market premiums on wild-collected medicinal plants will generate incentives for farmers who participate in restoration-friendly cultivation to preserve natural forests. With proper policy and oversight, the restoration-friendly cultivation of medicinal Dendrobium orchids will facilitate the conservation of these threatened species, encourage protection of natural forests, and benefit marginalized rural communities. Adding this restoration-friendly cultivation into the current mix of conservation approaches has the potential to turn deeply-entrenched traditional uses of orchids from a conservation challenge to a conservation success.     

Relocating plants from swidden fallows to gardens in Southwestern China

As upland farmers in Southeast Asia change from shifting cultivation to permanent agriculture and lose access to swidden-fallow forests and their resources, they are introducing economically important forest and fallow plants into their house gardens. We describe this process in Daka, a village of Hani ethnicity in Yunnan Province, China. Daka smallholders collect both seeds and seedlings from fallow forests and transfer the plants to house gardens, initiating the transformation of wild species to a cultivated or semi-domesticated one. Two kinds of species are commonly transferred from swidden fallows to house gardens. Some are particularly rare, others are plants in great demand. Between 1998 and 2000 Daka households earned an average of US$68.20 annually from the products of fallow forests. We also found that villagers harvest and use 76 plant species from fallow forests and 126 species from house gardens. Twenty-two species found in house gardens that had been transferred from fallow forests. Households vary widely in the frequency with which they engage in this pattern. We believe that local knowledge of these practices is a potentially important resource in the development of other areas of smallholder farming.     

Global climate change increases risk of crop yield losses and food insecurity in the tropical Andes

One of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%–29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 USOne of the greatest current challenges to human society is ensuring adequate food production and security for a rapidly growing population under changing climatic conditions. Climate change, and specifically rising temperatures, will alter the suitability of areas for specific crops and cultivation systems. In order to maintain yields, farmers may be forced to change cultivation practices, the timing of cultivation, or even the type of crops grown. Alternatively, farmers can change the location where crops are cultivated (e.g., to higher elevations) to track suitable climates (in which case the plants will have to grow in different soils), as cultivated plants will otherwise have to tolerate warmer temperatures and possibly face novel enemies. We simulated these two last possible scenarios (for temperature increases of 1.3°C and 2.6°C) in the Peruvian Andes through a field experiment in which several traditionally grown varieties of potato and maize were planted at different elevations (and thus temperatures) using either the local soil or soil translocated from higher elevations. Maize production declined by 21%–29% in response to new soil conditions. The production of maize and potatoes declined by >87% when plants were grown under warmer temperatures, mainly as a result of the greater incidence of novel pests. Crop quality and value also declined under simulated migration and warming scenarios. We estimated that local farmers may experience severe economic losses of up to 2,300 US$ ha^?1 yr^?1. These findings reveal that climate change is a real and imminent threat to agriculture and that there is a pressing need to develop effective management strategies to reduce yield losses and prevent food insecurity. Importantly, such strategies should take into account the influences of non‐climatic and/or biotic factors (e.g., novel pests) on plant development.     

云南澜沧江流域土地利用和覆盖变化

由人类活动引起的土地利用和地被覆盖的变化是地球上环境变化的主要原因。上世纪90年代是云南省经济发展和环境变化的活跃时期。本文通过现代卫星遥感技术、地理信息系统和其它多学科手段相结合 ,系统调查评估了云南澜沧江流域 1990年至 1998年间土地利用和地被覆盖的变化 ,结果显示流域中林业用地面积从 1990年的 6 4 9%增长到 1998年的6 6 4 % ,但是森林有林地 (郁闭度 >30 %的天然林和人工林 )从 1990年的 5 2 6 %减少到 1998年的 35 3%。并且分析大规模商业性森林砍伐、基础建设、经济作物的种植、刀耕火种、薪材过度采集和砍伐建筑用材等引起了森林的结构的显著变化和退化 ,从而导致了生物多样性的下降。