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Weiwei Ran;Jiajia Chen;Yuanqi Zhao;Ni Zhang;Guimei Luo;Zhibing Zhao;Yuehua Song; 《Ecology and evolution》2024,14(7):e70003
Knowing the impacts of global climate change on the habitat suitability distribution of Limassolla leafhoppers contributes to understanding the feedback of organisms on climate change from a macroecological perspective, and provides important scientific basis for protecting the ecological environment and biodiversity. However, there is limited knowledge on this aspect. Thus, our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing Asian habitat suitability and centroid shifts of Limassolla based on 19 bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Selecting five ecological niche models with the outstanding predictive performance (Maxlike, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, random forest, and maximum entropy) along with their ensemble model from 12 models, the current habitat suitability of Limassolla and its future habitat suitability under two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) in the 2050s and 2090s were predicted. The results showed that the prediction results of the five models are generally consistent. Based on ensemble model, 11 potential biodiversity hotspots with high suitability were identified. With climate change, the suitable range of Limassolla will experience both expansion and contraction. In SSP5-8.52050s, the expansion area is 118.56 × 104 km2, while the contraction area is 25.40 × 104 km2; in SSP1-2.62090s, the expansion area is 91.71 × 104 km2, and the contraction area is 26.54 × 104 km2. Furthermore, the distribution core of Limassolla will shift toward higher latitudes in the northeast direction, and the precipitation of warmest quarter was found to have the greatest impact on the distribution of Limassolla. Our research results supported our four hypotheses. Finally, this research suggests establishing ecological reserves in identified contraction to prevent habitat loss, enhancing the protection of biodiversity hotspots, and pursuing a sustainable development path with reduced emissions. 相似文献
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João Pedro Trevisan Rodrigo Antunes Caires Bruna Delfin Ferreira Rodrigues Matheus Marcos Rotundo Douglas Fernandes Rodrigues Alves Alexandre Ribeiro da Silva 《Austral ecology》2023,48(8):2126-2143
Trypauchen vagina (Bloch & Schneider, 1801) is a goby that lives burrowed into the substrata feeding on small invertebrates. It is native to the Indo-pacific region, ranging from Kuwait to China. Recently, this fish has been reported outside the original range of distribution, being found in the Mediterranean Sea, and more recently in the northeastern Brazilian coast. The Mediterranean reports are usually associated with Lessepsian migration, while the reports from Brazil are possibly related to ballast water transportation. In the present work, we provide eight new records from southeastern Brazilian coast, all made in São Paulo state, far from the first record. These additional records raised concern since the presence of an alien species could implicate in environmental and economic losses. Thus, we decide to model the environmental suitability for this goby in the Brazilian coast, specially focusing on major ports, usually places with high ballast water propagule pressure. In addition, an analysis of the suitability in the Red Sea was also made, to verify the hypothesis of Lessepsian migration. The results revealed that temperature and primary productivity are among the most important parameters for the presence of T. vagina, also indicating a high environmental suitability for this species in the Red Sea and Brazilian coast, especially in southeastern region, where the new records were made. Due to the number of collected individuals, it is hard to affirm that this taxon presents a self-sustaining population in Brazilian waters, but the several registers, in different locations and different life stages point to an establishment of the species in this new region. This population status allied with a high environmental suitability is alarming and should motivate new studies concerning T. vagina in Brazilian waters. 相似文献
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Emilio García‐Rosell Cstor Guisande Luis Gonzlez‐Vilas Jacinto Gonzlez‐Dacosta Juergen Heine Elisa Prez‐Costas Jorge M. Lobo 《Ecography》2019,42(9):1613-1622
Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly used to predict species distributions from available presence data. However, SDMs results have been criticized for several reasons mainly related to two basic characteristics of most SDMs: 1) general lack of reliable species absence information, 2) the frequent use of an arbitrary geographical extent (GE) or accessible area of the species. These impediments have motivated us to generate a procedure called niche of occurrence (NOO). NOO provides the probable distribution of species (realized niche) relying solely on partial information about presence of species. It operates within a natural geographical extent delimited by available observations and avoids using misleading thresholds to obtain binary presence–absence estimations when the species prevalence is unknown. In this study the main characteristics of NOO are presented, comparing its performance with other recognized and more complex SDMs by using virtual species to avoid the omnipresent error sources of real data sets. 相似文献
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物种分布模型是建立在物种出现或缺失数据的基础上,但可获得的真实分布数据存在着各种各样的缺点(如:物种识别错误、坐标错误、抽样偏差、数据缺失等),影响着物种分布模型的预测性能、稳定性及应用,因此使用物种真实分布数据评估物种分布模型将带来很大的不确定性。为避免这种不确定性,越来越多的研究使用虚拟物种来评价物种分布模型的性能,评估新方法的优劣。虚拟物种是一种建立在真实(或虚拟)地理信息系统下人工生命,是简化和抽象的物种,它通过模拟物种对环境变量的响应关系,评估物种在不同环境变量下的出现概率,人为地给出虚拟的物种分布数据。虚拟物种具有数据容易获得、数据质量可控、避免过度模拟等优势,目前它被广泛用于评估物种特性、抽样偏差、地理信息、出现/缺失标准等对物种分布模型性能的影响。虚拟物种是大尺度研究中不可或缺的重要工具,有利于解决真实数据未能解决的科学问题。常用的构成算法有求和法、求积法和综合法,但这些方法可能存在补偿效应,扩大了物种的分布范围。考虑到虚拟物种的不足,提出了未来虚拟物种可能的发展方向(避免过度脱离真实,完善虚拟物种的构成算法,构建虚拟的模式生物、群落及生态系统等)。为帮助研究者快速构建虚拟物种,基于R环境开发了一个虚拟物种构成软件包(SDMvspecies)。虚拟物种可以与真实物种相结合,通过改进模型的构成方法,有利于解决一些真实数据未能解决的问题;虚拟物种的应用也将导致一些新理论的产生,有利于更好地理解生态学原理。 相似文献
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We modelled the potential habitat of a threatened species D. fissum subsp. sordidum, an endemic hemicryptophyte with a disjunct distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Maxent was used to predict the subspecies habitat suitability by relating field sample-based distributional information with environmental and topographic variables. Our results suggest that the model performed well, predicting with high accuracy the current distribution of the species. The variables that most contributed to the model were Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter (MTWtQ), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (PWmQ), Temperature Annual Range (TAR) and Slope (Slo). These variables are biological significant for the taxon, as they have decisive influence in the critical stages of germination and fruiting. The current and potential distributional areas identified by the model fall mainly in regions with some degree of environmental protection, with some exceptions. A recovery plan for the species should be considered. Species Distribution Modelling cannot substitute long-term monitoring programmes, yet it is a useful tool for identifying appropriate areas of taxon occurrence, and thus allow for efficient use of the economic and human resources. 相似文献
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Invasion by alien species is nowadays considered as one of the major threats to biodiversity. Thus, the identification of the areas exposed to a greater risk of invasion represents a priority for management purpose, especially in presence of habitats worthy of conservation. This paper aims to propose a method to produce a map of risk of invasion, merging together the threat of invasion by invasive plants and the distribution of habitats with high conservation value, on the case study of the Island of Elba (Tuscan Archipelago). We modelled the potential distribution of six particularly harmful invasive plants and merged these distributions into a map of threat of invasion. This map was overlapped to the map of density of Natura2000 habitats, finally obtaining a map of risk of invasion. According to our analyses, the potential distribution of the invasive species resulted highly influenced by human-related factors. The habitats more at risk are those closer to streets and anthropic habitats, which are more likely to be colonized by the invasive species we studied. We identified some rare habitats which are strongly endangered, highlighting that around 20% of the surface of the Island is exposed to some level of risk of invasion. 相似文献
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对一定区域内生物多样性的合理保护往往需要在景观水平上了解生物多样性分布的总体规律.借助于典型抽样调查和遥感及地理信息系统相结合的方法来预测物种丰富度是定量研究生物多样性宏观分布规律的重要途径.以阿尔泰山小东沟林区为对象,在外业调查的基础上,选取主要气象因子、地形因子和植被指数(NDVI)作为预测变量,利用主成分分析和多元回归分析分别提取主要环境信息和构建物种丰富度预测模型,借助ArcGIS9.1的空间分析功能,得到了阿尔泰山小东沟林区乔木物种丰富度空间分布预测图,并利用残差图评价其精度.将小东沟乔木物种丰富度预测图分别与坡度、坡向和海拔图叠加,分析不同地形条件下乔木物种丰富度的空间分布规律.结果表明:占总研究区面积70.28％的区域,其乔木物种丰富度在3到4种之间.坡度0-5°的地形条件下乔木物种丰富度出现频率最高的数值是3,其余坡度条件下,乔木物种丰富度出现频率最高的数值是4;乔木物种丰富度在西坡和西北坡出现频率最高的数值是3,其余坡向乔木物种丰富度出现频率最高的数值均是4;海拔梯度上,乔木物种丰富度出现频率最高的数值呈现先增加后减少的趋势.残差类型面积统计表明,较强预测水平面积和中等预测水平面积占研究区总面积的94.62％,表明预测效果较好. 相似文献
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Philip E. Hulme 《Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society》2017,92(3):1297-1313
A changing climate may directly or indirectly influence biological invasions by altering the likelihood of introduction or establishment, as well as modifying the geographic range, environmental impacts, economic costs or management of alien species. A comprehensive assessment of empirical and theoretical evidence identified how each of these processes is likely to be shaped by climate change for alien plants, animals and pathogens in terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments of Great Britain. The strongest contemporary evidence for the potential role of climate change in the establishment of new alien species is for terrestrial arthropods, as a result of their ectothermic physiology, often high dispersal rate and their strong association with trade as well as commensal relationships with human environments. By contrast, there is little empirical support for higher temperatures increasing the rate of alien plant establishment due to the stronger effects of residence time and propagule pressure. The magnitude of any direct climate effect on the number of new alien species will be small relative to human‐assisted introductions driven by socioeconomic factors. Casual alien species (sleepers) whose population persistence is limited by climate are expected to exhibit greater rates of establishment under climate change assuming that propagule pressure remains at least at current levels. Surveillance and management targeting sleeper pests and diseases may be the most cost‐effective option to reduce future impacts under climate change. Most established alien species will increase their distribution range in Great Britain over the next century. However, such range increases are very likely be the result of natural expansion of populations that have yet to reach equilibrium with their environment, rather than a direct consequence of climate change. To assess the potential realised range of alien species will require a spatially explicit approach that not only integrates bioclimatic suitability and population‐level demographic rates but also simulation of landscape‐level processes (e.g. dispersal, land‐use change, host/habitat distribution, non‐climatic edaphic constraints). In terms of invasive alien species that have known economic or biodiversity impacts, the taxa that are likely to be the most responsive are plant pathogens and insect pests of agricultural crops. However, the extent to which climate adaptation strategies lead to new crops, altered rotations, and different farming practices (e.g. irrigation, fertilization) will all shape the potential agricultural impacts of alien species. The greatest uncertainty in the effects of climate change on biological invasions exists with identifying the future character of new species introductions and predicting ecosystem impacts. Two complementary strategies may work under these conditions of high uncertainty: (i) prioritise ecosystems in terms of their perceived vulnerability to climate change and prevent ingress or expansion of alien species therein that may exacerbate problems; (ii) target those ecosystem already threatened by alien species and implement management to prevent the situation deteriorating under climate change. 相似文献
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It has long been a concern that performance measures of species distribution models react to attributes of the modeled entity arising from the input data structure rather than to model performance. Thus, the study of Allouche et al. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223, 2006) identifying the true skill statistics (TSS) as being independent of prevalence had a great impact. However, empirical experience questioned the validity of the statement. We searched for technical reasons behind these observations. We explored possible sources of prevalence dependence in TSS including sampling constraints and species characteristics, which influence the calculation of TSS. We also examined whether the widespread solution of using the maximum of TSS for comparison among species introduces a prevalence effect. We found that the design of Allouche et al. (Journal of Applied Ecology, 43, 1223, 2006) was flawed, but TSS is indeed independent of prevalence if model predictions are binary and under the strict set of assumptions methodological studies usually apply. However, if we take realistic sources of prevalence dependence, effects appear even in binary calculations. Furthermore, in the widespread approach of using maximum TSS for continuous predictions, the use of the maximum alone induces prevalence dependence for small, but realistic samples. Thus, prevalence differences need to be taken into account when model comparisons are carried out based on discrimination capacity. The sources we identified can serve as a checklist to safely control comparisons, so that true discrimination capacity is compared as opposed to artefacts arising from data structure, species characteristics, or the calculation of the comparison measure (here TSS). 相似文献
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外来种入侵与物种多样性 总被引：18，自引：2，他引：18
在入侵生态学研究方面 ,物种多样性与生物入侵之间的关系已成为当前研究和争论的焦点。自Elton的经典假说提出以来 ,物种丰富度高的群落比物种贫乏的群落更能抵抗外来种入侵的观点得到广泛接受。一些理论模型和多样性处理实验支持了该假说。但现在越来越多的野外观测和实验研究开始对这一经典假说提出异议 ,甚至反对。同时 ,在入侵生态学广泛受到关注的今天 ,大量的实验研究也提出了一些新的观点。本文对Elton经典假说提出以来全球有关物种多样性与生物入侵关系的主要研究及其观点进行了评述 ,以期为我国有关研究工作的开展提供参考。 相似文献
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David E. Uribe-Rivera;Gurutzeta Guillera-Arroita;Saras M. Windecker;Patricio Pliscoff;Brendan A. Wintle; 《Ecography》2023,2023(4):e06048
Ecological models used to forecast range change (range change models; RCM) have recently diversified to account for a greater number of ecological and observational processes in pursuit of more accurate and realistic predictions. Theory suggests that process-explicit RCMs should generate more robust forecasts, particularly under novel environmental conditions. RCMs accounting for processes are generally more complex and data hungry, and so, require extra effort to build. Thus, it is necessary to understand when the effort of building a more realistic model is likely to generate more reliable forecasts. Here, we review the literature to explore whether process-explicit models have been tested through benchmarking their temporal predictive performance (i.e. their predictive performance when transferred in time) and model transferability (i.e. their ability to keep their predictive performance when transferred to generate predictions into a different time) against simpler models, and highlight the gaps between the rapid development of process-explicit RCMs and the testing of their potential improvements. We found that, out of five ecological processes (dispersal, demography, physiology, evolution, species interactions) and two observational processes (sampling bias, imperfect detection) that may influence reliability of forecasts, only the effects of dispersal, demography and imperfect detection have been benchmarked using temporally-independent datasets. Only nine out of twenty-nine process-explicit model types have been tested to assess whether accounting for processes improves temporal predictive performance. We found no benchmarks assessing model transferability. We discuss potential reasons for the lack of empirical validation of process-explicit models. Considering these findings, we propose an expanded research agenda to properly test the performance of process-explicit RCMs, and highlight some opportunities to fill the gaps by suggesting models to be benchmarked using existing historical datasets. 相似文献
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In the last two decades, interest in species distribution models (SDMs) of plants and animals has grown dramatically. Recent advances in SDMs allow us to potentially forecast anthropogenic effects on patterns of biodiversity at different spatial scales. However, some limitations still preclude the use of SDMs in many theoretical and practical applications. Here, we provide an overview of recent advances in this field, discuss the ecological principles and assumptions underpinning SDMs, and highlight critical limitations and decisions inherent in the construction and evaluation of SDMs. Particular emphasis is given to the use of SDMs for the assessment of climate change impacts and conservation management issues. We suggest new avenues for incorporating species migration, population dynamics, biotic interactions and community ecology into SDMs at multiple spatial scales. Addressing all these issues requires a better integration of SDMs with ecological theory. 相似文献
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