Predicting risk of invasion in a Mediterranean island using niche modelling and valuable biota

Invasion by alien species is nowadays considered as one of the major threats to biodiversity. Thus, the identification of the areas exposed to a greater risk of invasion represents a priority for management purpose, especially in presence of habitats worthy of conservation. This paper aims to propose a method to produce a map of risk of invasion, merging together the threat of invasion by invasive plants and the distribution of habitats with high conservation value, on the case study of the Island of Elba (Tuscan Archipelago). We modelled the potential distribution of six particularly harmful invasive plants and merged these distributions into a map of threat of invasion. This map was overlapped to the map of density of Natura2000 habitats, finally obtaining a map of risk of invasion. According to our analyses, the potential distribution of the invasive species resulted highly influenced by human-related factors. The habitats more at risk are those closer to streets and anthropic habitats, which are more likely to be colonized by the invasive species we studied. We identified some rare habitats which are strongly endangered, highlighting that around 20% of the surface of the Island is exposed to some level of risk of invasion.     

Increasing the Understanding of Plant Invasions in Southern South America: First Symposium on Alien Plant Invasions in Chile

The first symposium on Alien Plant Invasions in Chile was held in southern Chile in November of 2002. Chile represents an interesting setting to study biological invasions because of its long history of introductions, and its high rate of endemisms that makes it more prone to invasions. However, little is known about plant invasions in Chile and the country lacks a clear policy on alien species. The speakers at the symposium discussed their research on several aspects of alien plant invasions in southern Chile and Argentina. They also elaborated a list of future challenges of plant invasion ecology for the area. The package of recommendations may be useful for other developing countries with similar state of knowledge of their flora and similar environmental and economic issues. We expect that this type of meeting will help to stimulate the scientific debate about invasion ecology and the development of coordinated research to answer local questions, while contributing to find generalities in plant invasion patterns and processes.     

Trypauchen vagina (Bloch & Schneider, 1801) a new established species in the Southwestern Atlantic

Trypauchen vagina (Bloch & Schneider, 1801) is a goby that lives burrowed into the substrata feeding on small invertebrates. It is native to the Indo-pacific region, ranging from Kuwait to China. Recently, this fish has been reported outside the original range of distribution, being found in the Mediterranean Sea, and more recently in the northeastern Brazilian coast. The Mediterranean reports are usually associated with Lessepsian migration, while the reports from Brazil are possibly related to ballast water transportation. In the present work, we provide eight new records from southeastern Brazilian coast, all made in São Paulo state, far from the first record. These additional records raised concern since the presence of an alien species could implicate in environmental and economic losses. Thus, we decide to model the environmental suitability for this goby in the Brazilian coast, specially focusing on major ports, usually places with high ballast water propagule pressure. In addition, an analysis of the suitability in the Red Sea was also made, to verify the hypothesis of Lessepsian migration. The results revealed that temperature and primary productivity are among the most important parameters for the presence of T. vagina, also indicating a high environmental suitability for this species in the Red Sea and Brazilian coast, especially in southeastern region, where the new records were made. Due to the number of collected individuals, it is hard to affirm that this taxon presents a self-sustaining population in Brazilian waters, but the several registers, in different locations and different life stages point to an establishment of the species in this new region. This population status allied with a high environmental suitability is alarming and should motivate new studies concerning T. vagina in Brazilian waters.     

Niche conservatism and the potential for the crayfish Procambarus clarkii to invade South America

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Protected areas offer refuge from invasive species spreading under climate change

Protected areas (PAs) are intended to provide native biodiversity and habitats with a refuge against the impacts of global change, particularly acting as natural filters against biological invasions. In practice, however, it is unknown how effective PAs will be in shielding native species from invasions under projected climate change. Here, we investigate the current and future potential distributions of 100 of the most invasive terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species in Europe. We use this information to evaluate the combined threat posed by climate change and invasions to existing PAs and the most susceptible species they shelter. We found that only a quarter of Europe's marine and terrestrial areas protected over the last 100 years have been colonized by any of the invaders investigated, despite offering climatically suitable conditions for invasion. In addition, hotspots of invasive species and the most susceptible native species to their establishment do not match at large continental scales. Furthermore, the predicted richness of invaders is 11%–18% significantly lower inside PAs than outside them. Invasive species are rare in long‐established national parks and nature reserves, which are actively protected and often located in remote and pristine regions with very low human density. In contrast, the richness of invasive species is high in the more recently designated Natura 2000 sites, which are subject to high human accessibility. This situation may change in the future, since our models anticipate important shifts in species ranges toward the north and east of Europe at unprecedented rates of 14–55 km/decade, depending on taxonomic group and scenario. This may seriously compromise the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This study is the first comprehensive assessment of the resistance that PAs provide against biological invasions and climate change on a continental scale and illustrates their strategic value in safeguarding native biodiversity.     

A review of the critics of invasion biology

Herein, I review existing criticisms of the field of invasion biology. Firstly, I identifiy problems of conceptual weaknesses, including disagreements regarding: (i) definitions of invasive, impact, and pristine conditions, and (ii) ecological assumptions such as species equilibrium, niche saturation, and climax communities. Secondly, I discuss methodological problems include the misuse of correlations, biases in impact reviews and risk assessment, and difficulties in predicting the effects of species introductions or eradications. Finally, I analyse the social conflict regarding invasive species management and differences in moral and philosophical foundations. I discuss the recent emergence of alternatives to traditional invasion biology approaches, including the concept of novel ecosystems, conciliation biology, and compassionate conservation. Understanding different value systems will be the first step to reconciling the different perspectives related to this controversial topic.     

Assessing the potential range expansion of the exotic monk parakeet in Spain

In this study we determine favourable areas for the monk parakeet, Myiopsitta monachus , in peninsular Spain to account for its current distribution and predict its future course according to its potential range. We applied a favourability function based on generalized linear models using the presence/absence of breeding colonies of the species and the values of a set of variables on the 5167 UTM 10 × 10 km squares comprising the study area. We calculated the factor of distribution change in presences predicted by the model, and grouped the variables into explanatory factors performing a variation partitioning to assess the explanatory power of each factor. Our model included six predictors to explain the presence and absence of the species. These predictors were grouped into three factors: human activity, climate, and topography. Purely human influences accounted for 63.8% of the variation of the final model, while topographical variables explained 15.2% and climate only 5.7%. We obtained a high distribution change factor in which the presences of the species were predicted to increase between two- and sevenfold. Taking into account highly favourable squares, we conclude that the species is still absent in more than 72% of potential settlement areas, and thus we expect a continuous increase in the distribution of the species. Human activity is the main force moulding the distribution of the species, and lies behind its fast expansion, which is not only active, but is also passive via releases and escapes. We identified the areas of likely future expansion of the exotic monk parakeet in Spain. The pest status of the species in its native range, together to its distribution trend, should be taken into account by wildlife agencies to consider options for management.     

Habitat distribution modelling,under the present climatic scenario,of the threatened endemic Iberian Delphinium fissum subsp. sordidum (Ranunculaceae) and implications for its conservation

We modelled the potential habitat of a threatened species D. fissum subsp. sordidum, an endemic hemicryptophyte with a disjunct distribution in the Iberian Peninsula. Maxent was used to predict the subspecies habitat suitability by relating field sample-based distributional information with environmental and topographic variables. Our results suggest that the model performed well, predicting with high accuracy the current distribution of the species. The variables that most contributed to the model were Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter (MTWtQ), Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (PWmQ), Temperature Annual Range (TAR) and Slope (Slo). These variables are biological significant for the taxon, as they have decisive influence in the critical stages of germination and fruiting. The current and potential distributional areas identified by the model fall mainly in regions with some degree of environmental protection, with some exceptions. A recovery plan for the species should be considered. Species Distribution Modelling cannot substitute long-term monitoring programmes, yet it is a useful tool for identifying appropriate areas of taxon occurrence, and thus allow for efficient use of the economic and human resources.     

东北地区5个物种潜在栖息地变化与优化保护规划

气候变化广泛影响着物种多样性及其分布变迁。优化模型模拟结果,获取气候变化影响下的优先保护区域将为制定应对气候变化的物种保护政策或行动提供理论依据,提升保护绩效。选取东北地区五种代表性动物,包括黑熊(Ursus thibetanus)、驼鹿(Alces alces)、水獭(Lutra lutra)、紫貂(Martes zibellina)及黑嘴松鸡(Tetrao parvirostris);结合最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟在不同RCP情景下未来3个年代(2030s,2050s,2070s)的物种潜在栖息地。根据九个常用气候模式的评价结果,获取东北地区合适的气候模式,了解气候变化对物种潜在栖息地的影响,同时开展物种保护规划,识别保护空缺,为应对气候变化、保持生物多样性提供支持。结果显示,在气候变化背景下物种潜在栖息地面积整体呈现下降趋势,但不同气候模式之间存在差异;评价结果推荐CCSM4、Nor ESM1-M、Had GEM2-AO及GFDL-CM3气候模式,推荐在东北地区使用以上气候模式进行物种未来潜在分布的研究。5个物种潜在栖息地平均面积变化率分别为-62.16%,-73.93%,-78.46%(2030s,2050s,2070s)。综合5个重点保护物种的保护优先区,大兴安岭的呼中、汗马与额尔古纳国家级自然保护区,延边地区的天佛指山、老爷岭东北虎、珲春东北虎与汪清原麝国家级自然保护区,长白山国家级自然保护区是气候变化下物种保护的热点区域。     

Assessing the vulnerability of riparian vegetation to invasion by Mimulus guttatus: relative importance of biotic and abiotic variables in determining species occurrence and abundance

Riparian habitats are particularly susceptible to invasion by non‐native plants. At present, attempts to build consensus as to what the primary drivers of plant invasion in riparian ecosystems might be is hindered by the absence of common standards for data collected on plant species (e.g. occurrence, or relative abundance). Mimulus guttatus L., a non‐native riparian plant species, was used as a model to determine how environmental drivers influence two aspects of invasibility: species occurrence and abundance (assessed in relation to three variables number of patches, patch area and number of stems per patch). Mimulus occurrence and abundance, together with 20 environmental variables, were surveyed in almost 700 contiguous 50‐m‐long riverbank segments within a catchment in north‐east Scotland. More than half of the segments had been colonized by Mimulus. Occurrence and number of patches responded to similar environmental gradients, particularly bare sediment, boulders, high soil moisture, short‐statured ruderal communities, and open canopies, and tended to be highest downstream where the river was widest. In contrast to occurrence and patch number, patch area and stem number per patch were higher in the upper reaches of the catchment and were positively associated with low tree canopy and vegetation dominated by light‐demanding species and smaller‐statured species. Patch area and stem number per patch were also positively related to grazing. This study has highlighted the importance of assessing more than one measure of invasion success (occurrence or patch number and either patch area or stem number per patch), as they are each determined by a different suite of environmental variables. Abiotic factors, such as sediment availability and presence of boulders, appeared to be the major determinants of occurrence and patch number, whereas biotic factors, such as interspecific competition and grazing, were more important ecological determinants underlying area and stem number per patch.     

A simple method to estimate the probable distribution of species

Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly used to predict species distributions from available presence data. However, SDMs results have been criticized for several reasons mainly related to two basic characteristics of most SDMs: 1) general lack of reliable species absence information, 2) the frequent use of an arbitrary geographical extent (GE) or accessible area of the species. These impediments have motivated us to generate a procedure called niche of occurrence (NOO). NOO provides the probable distribution of species (realized niche) relying solely on partial information about presence of species. It operates within a natural geographical extent delimited by available observations and avoids using misleading thresholds to obtain binary presence–absence estimations when the species prevalence is unknown. In this study the main characteristics of NOO are presented, comparing its performance with other recognized and more complex SDMs by using virtual species to avoid the omnipresent error sources of real data sets.     

The invasion of Argentina by the European wild rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus

• 1 We provide an updated distribution and dispersal rate of the introduced European rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus in Argentina.
• 2 According to our results this invasive species is currently colonizing parts of Mendoza and Neuquén Provinces, where rivers are very important in the spread of the rabbits, especially in unfavourable areas. The maximun rate of dispersal registered in this study was 9 km/year.
• 3 Some information was obtained to indicate that the presence of this exotic species threatens agriculture, livestock, forestry, and natural ecosystems of the Patagonia region.

     

Patterns of invasion in the Laurentian Great Lakes in relation to changes in vector activity

The Laurentian Great Lakes basin has been invaded by at least 182 non-indigenous species. A new invader is discovered every 28 weeks, which is the highest rate recorded for a freshwater ecosystem. Over the past century, invasions have occurred in phases linked to changes in the dominant vectors. The number of ship-vectored invaders recorded per decade is correlated with the intensity of vessel traffic within the basin. Ballast water release from ocean vessels is the putative vector for 65% of all invasions recorded since the opening of the St. Lawrence Seaway in 1959. As a preventive measure, ocean vessels have been required since 1993 to exchange their freshwater or estuarine ballast with highly saline ocean water prior to entering the Great Lakes. However, this procedure has not prevented ship-vectored species introductions. Most ships visiting the Great Lakes declare 'no ballast on board' (NOBOB) and are exempt from the regulation, even though they carry residual water that is discharged into the Great Lakes during their activities of off-loading inbound cargo and loading outbound cargo. Recently introduced species consist predominantly of benthic invertebrates with broad salinity tolerance. Such species are most likely to survive in a ballast tank following ballast water exchange, as well as transport in the residual water and tank sediments of NOBOB ships. Thus, the Great Lakes remain at risk of being invaded by dozens of euryhaline invertebrates that have spread into Eurasian ports from whence originates the bulk of foreign ships visiting the basin.