Lake diatom response to recent Arctic warming in Finnish Lapland

High-resolution palaeolimnological data from a number of remote and nonpolluted lakes in Finnish Lapland reveal a distinct change in diatom assemblages. This parallels the post-19th century Arctic warming detected by examination of long-term instrumental series, historical records of ice cover and tree-ring measurements. The change was predominantly from benthos to plankton and affected the overall diatom species richness. A particularly strong relationship was found between spring temperatures and compositional structure of diatoms. The change is irrespective of the lake type and catchment characteristics, and is reflected by several other biological indicators, such as chrysophytes and zooplankton, suggesting that entire lake ecosystems have been affected. No corresponding change in the diatom-inferred lake-water pH was observed; hence, atmospheric fallout of acid substances cannot have been the driving force for the observed biological change. The mechanism behind the diatom response is unclear, but it may be related to decreased ice-cover duration, prolonged growing season and increased thermal stability. We postulate that 19th century Arctic warming, rather than acidic or other anthropogenic deposition, is responsible for the recent ecological changes in these high latitude lakes.     

Heavy metals (Cu and Zn) in recent sediments of Llangorse Lake,Wales: non-ferrous smelting,Napoleon and the price of wheat — a palaeoecological study

Elevated concentrations of Cu and Zn have been found in the upper part of three sediment cores collected from Llangorse Lake, in south Wales. Palaeomagnetic evidence from one of the cores and ²¹⁰Pb analysis of another, suggests that the increase in sediment Cu and Zn concentrations began during the eighteenth century. A sharp increase in the concentrations of these metals in the sediment profile appears to have occurred during the latter part of the eighteenth century and these concentrations remained high until the mid to late nineteenth century.The absence of known ore deposits and industry around the lake suggests that the lake and catchment soils were increasingly contaminated by long-range aerial transport of emissions from the expanding activity of Cu and Zn smelters located some 80 km upwind in the Swansea area during the Industrial Revolution. Evidence from agricultural crop returns indicates a significant increase in the amount of land devoted to tillage in the catchment, particularly to cereal production, during the late eighteenth and the first half of the nineteenth century which included the Napoleonic Wars. This agricultural shift appears to coincide with increased concentrations of Cu and Zn in the lake sediments. It is suggested that newly ploughed soils, contaminated with metals for many years by long-range aerial transport from the Swansea area, eroded, and were carried into the lake by catchment run-off and added to the sediment burden of Cu and Zn. A subsequent decline of Cu and Zn emissions due to the collapse of the non-ferrous smelting industry and reduced soil erosion because of a 50% reduction of tillage due to an agricultural depression in the second half of the 19th century may explain the fall in Cu and Zn concentrations in the upper part of the sediment profile. The most recent sediments (20th century) show the increase in heavy metals characteristic of many lakes around the world.     

Warming effects on greenhouse gas fluxes in peatlands are modulated by vegetation composition

Understanding the effects of warming on greenhouse gas feedbacks to climate change represents a major global challenge. Most research has focused on direct effects of warming, without considering how concurrent changes in plant communities may alter such effects. Here, we combined vegetation manipulations with warming to investigate their interactive effects on greenhouse gas emissions from peatland. We found that although warming consistently increased respiration, the effect on net ecosystem CO₂ exchange depended on vegetation composition. The greatest increase in CO₂ sink strength after warming was when shrubs were present, and the greatest decrease when graminoids were present. CH₄ was more strongly controlled by vegetation composition than by warming, with largest emissions from graminoid communities. Our results show that plant community composition is a significant modulator of greenhouse gas emissions and their response to warming, and suggest that vegetation change could alter peatland carbon sink strength under future climate change.     

Skin as a potential source of infectious foot and mouth disease aerosols

This review examines whether exfoliated, virus-infected animal skin cells could be an important source of infectious foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) aerosols. Infectious material rafting on skin cell aerosols is an established means of transmitting other diseases. The evidence for a similar mechanism for FMDV is: (i) FMDV is trophic for animal skin and FMDV epidermis titres are high, even in macroscopically normal skin; (ii) estimates for FMDV skin cell aerosol emissions appear consistent with measured aerosol emission rates and are orders of magnitude larger than the minimum infectious dose; (iii) the timing of infectious FMDV aerosol emissions is consistent with the timing of high FMDV skin concentrations; (iv) measured FMDV aerosol sizes are consistent with skin cell aerosols; and (v) FMDV stability in natural aerosols is consistent with that expected for skin cell aerosols. While these findings support the hypothesis, this review is insufficient, in and of itself, to prove the hypothesis and specific follow-on experiments are proposed. If this hypothesis is validated, (i) new FMDV detection, management and decontamination approaches could be developed and (ii) the relevance of skin cells to the spread of viral disease may need to be reassessed as skin cells may protect viruses against otherwise adverse environmental conditions.     

Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions

The extent and duration of sea-ice habitats used by Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are diminishing resulting in altered walrus behavior, mortality, and distribution. I document changes that have occurred over the past several decades and make predictions to the end of the 21st century. Climate models project that sea ice will monotonically decline resulting in more ice-free summers of longer duration. Several stressors that may impact walruses are directly influenced by sea ice. How these stressors materialize were modeled as most likely-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios for the mid- and late-21st century, resulting in four comprehensive working hypotheses that can help identify and prioritize management and research projects, identify comprehensive mitigation actions, and guide monitoring programs to track future developments and adjust programs as needed. In the short term, the most plausible hypotheses predict a continuing northward shift in walrus distribution, increasing use of coastal haulouts in summer and fall, and a population reduction set by the carrying capacity of the near shore environment and subsistence hunting. Alternatively, under worst-case conditions, the population will decline to a level where the probability of extinction is high. In the long term, walrus may seasonally abandon the Bering and Chukchi Seas for sea-ice refugia to the northwest and northeast, ocean warming and pH decline alter walrus food resources, and subsistence hunting exacerbates a large population decline. However, conditions that reverse current trends in sea ice loss cannot be ruled out. Which hypothesis comes to fruition depends on how the stressors develop and the success of mitigation measures. Best-case scenarios indicate that successful mitigation of unsustainable harvests and terrestrial haulout-related mortalities can be effective. Management and research should focus on monitoring, elucidating effects, and mitigation, while ultimately, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce sea-ice habitat losses.     

Food web changes in arctic ecosystems related to climate warming

Sedimentary records from three Canadian High Arctic ponds on Ellesmere Island, spanning the last several thousand years, show major shifts in pond communities within the last ～200 years. These paleolimnological data indicate that aquatic insect (Diptera: Chironomidae) populations rapidly expanded and greatly increased in community diversity beginning in the 19th century. These invertebrate changes coincided with striking shifts in algal (diatom) populations, indicating strong food‐web effects because of climate warming and reduced ice‐cover in ponds. Predicted future warming in the Arctic may produce ecological changes that exceed the large shifts that have already occurred since the 19th century.     

全球变暖与陆地生态系统研究中的野外增温装置

由于化石燃料燃烧和森林砍伐等人类活动引起的地球大气层中温室气体(主要是二氧化碳)的富集已导致全球平均温度在20世纪升高了0.6 ℃,并将在本世纪继续上升1.4~5.8 ℃。这种地质历史上前所未有的全球变暖将对陆地植物和生态系统产生深远影响,并通过全球碳循环的改变反馈于全球气候变化。作为全球变化生态学的主要研究方法之一,生态系统增温实验能够为生态模型提供参数估计和模型验证。然而由于在世界各地使用的增温装置不同,使得各个生态系统之间的结果比较和整合难以实施,增加了模型预测的不确定性。该文通过比较几种常见的野外增温装置在模拟全球变暖情形时的优缺点,指出利用不同增温装置进行全球变暖研究中应注意的一些问题;同时探讨了全球变暖控制实验研究中的一些关键性的科学问题。     

Paradise lost: End‐of‐century warming and acidification under business‐as‐usual emissions have severe consequences for symbiotic corals

Despite recent efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, current global emission trajectories are still following the business‐as‐usual representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emission pathway. The resulting ocean warming and acidification have transformative impacts on coral reef ecosystems, detrimentally affecting coral physiology and health, and these impacts are predicted to worsen in the near future. In this study, we kept fragments of the symbiotic corals Acropora intermedia (thermally sensitive) and Porites lobata (thermally tolerant) for 7 weeks under an orthogonal design of predicted end‐of‐century RCP8.5 conditions for temperature and pCO₂ (3.5°C and 570 ppm above present‐day, respectively) to unravel how temperature and acidification, individually or interactively, influence metabolic and physiological performance. Our results pinpoint thermal stress as the dominant driver of deteriorating health in both species because of its propensity to destabilize coral–dinoflagellate symbiosis (bleaching). Acidification had no influence on metabolism but had a significant negative effect on skeleton growth, particularly when photosynthesis was absent such as in bleached corals or under dark conditions. Total loss of photosynthesis after bleaching caused an exhaustion of protein and lipid stores and collapse of calcification that ultimately led to A. intermedia mortality. Despite complete loss of symbionts from its tissue, P. lobata maintained small amounts of photosynthesis and experienced a weaker decline in lipid and protein reserves that presumably contributed to higher survival of this species. Our results indicate that ocean warming and acidification under business‐as‐usual CO₂ emission scenarios will likely extirpate thermally sensitive coral species before the end of the century, while slowing the recovery of more thermally tolerant species from increasingly severe mass coral bleaching and mortality. This could ultimately lead to the gradual disappearance of tropical coral reefs globally, and a shift on surviving reefs to only the most resilient coral species.     

Coping with Commitment: Projected Thermal Stress on Coral Reefs under Different Future Scenarios

Background

Periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures can lead to mass coral bleaching. Past studies have concluded that anthropogenic climate change may rapidly increase the frequency of these thermal stress events, leading to declines in coral cover, shifts in the composition of corals and other reef-dwelling organisms, and stress on the human populations who depend on coral reef ecosystems for food, income and shoreline protection. The ability of greenhouse gas mitigation to alter the near-term forecast for coral reefs is limited by the time lag between greenhouse gas emissions and the physical climate response.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This study uses observed sea surface temperatures and the results of global climate model forced with five different future emissions scenarios to evaluate the “committed warming” for coral reefs worldwide. The results show that the physical warming commitment from current accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere could cause over half of the world''s coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent (p≥0.2 year⁻¹) thermal stress by 2080. An additional “societal” warming commitment, caused by the time required to shift from a business-as-usual emissions trajectory to a 550 ppm CO₂ stabilization trajectory, may cause over 80% of the world''s coral reefs to experience harmfully frequent events by 2030. Thermal adaptation of 1.5°C would delay the thermal stress forecast by 50–80 years.

Conclusions/Significance

The results suggest that adaptation – via biological mechanisms, coral community shifts and/or management interventions – could provide time to change the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions and possibly avoid the recurrence of harmfully frequent events at the majority (97%) of the world''s coral reefs this century. Without any thermal adaptation, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations may need to be stabilized below current levels to avoid the degradation of coral reef ecosystems from frequent thermal stress events.     

Unusual forest growth decline in boreal North America covaries with the retreat of Arctic sea ice

The 20th century was a pivotal period at high northern latitudes as it marked the onset of rapid climatic warming brought on by major anthropogenic changes in global atmospheric composition. In parallel, Arctic sea ice extent has been decreasing over the period of available satellite data records. Here, we document how these changes influenced vegetation productivity in adjacent eastern boreal North America. To do this, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, model simulations of net primary productivity (NPP) and tree‐ring width measurements covering the last 300 years. Climatic and proxy‐climatic data sets were used to explore the relationships between vegetation productivity and Arctic sea ice concentration and extent, and temperatures. Results indicate that an unusually large number of black spruce (Picea mariana) trees entered into a period of growth decline during the late‐20th century (62% of sampled trees; n = 724 cross sections of age >70 years). This finding is coherent with evidence encoded in NDVI and simulated NPP data. Analyses of climatic and vegetation productivity relationships indicate that the influence of recent climatic changes in the studied forests has been via the enhanced moisture stress (i.e. greater water demands) and autotrophic respiration amplified by the declining sea ice concentration in Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait. The recent decline strongly contrasts with other growth reduction events that occurred during the 19th century, which were associated with cooling and high sea ice severity. The recent decline of vegetation productivity is the first one to occur under circumstances related to excess heat in a 300‐year period, and further culminates with an intensifying wildfire regime in the region. Our results concur with observations from other forest ecosystems about intensifying temperature‐driven drought stress and tree mortality with ongoing climatic changes.     

Non-methane biogenic volatile organic compound emissions from boreal peatland microcosms under warming and water table drawdown

Boreal peatlands have significant emissions of non-methane biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Climate warming is expected to affect these ecosystems both directly, with increasing temperature, and indirectly, through water table drawdown following increased evapotranspiration. We assessed the combined effect of warming and water table drawdown on the BVOC emissions from boreal peatland microcosms. We also assessed the treatment effects on the BVOC emissions from the peat soil after the 7-week long experiment. Emissions of isoprene, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes, other reactive VOCs and other VOCs were sampled using a conventional chamber technique, collected on adsorbent and analyzed by GC–MS. Carbon emitted as BVOCs was less than 1% of the CO₂ uptake and up to 3% of CH₄ emission. Water table drawdown surpassed the direct warming effect and significantly decreased the emissions of all BVOC groups. Only isoprene emission was significantly increased by warming, parallel to the increased leaf number of the dominant sedge Eriophorum vaginatum. BVOC emissions from peat soil were higher under the control and warming treatments than water table drawdown, suggesting an increased activity of anaerobic microbial community. Our results suggest that boreal peatlands could have concomitant negative and positive radiative forcing effects on climate warming following the effect of water table drawdown. The observed decrease in CH₄ emission causes a negative radiative forcing while the increase in CO₂ emission and decrease in reactive BVOC emissions, which could reduce the cooling effect induced by the lower formation rate of secondary organic aerosols, both contribute to increased radiative forcing.     

Early-20th Century Environmental Changes Inferred Using Subfossil Diatoms from a Small Pond on Melville Island, N.W.T., Canadian High Arctic

Diatom-based paleolimnological studies are being increasingly used to track long-term environmental change in arctic regions. Little is known, however, about the direction and nature of such environmental changes in the western Canadian high Arctic. In this study, shifts in diatom assemblages preserved in a ²¹⁰Pb-dated sediment core collected from a small pond on Melville Island, N.W.T., were interpreted to record marked environmental changes that had taken place since the early 20th century. For most of the history of the pond recorded in this core, the diatom assemblage remained relatively stable and was dominated by Fragilaria capucina. A major shift in species composition began in the early-20th century, with a sharp decline in F. capucina and a concurrent increase in Achnanthes minutissima. In the last 20 years, further changes in the diatom assemblage occurred, with a notable increase in the Nitzschia perminuta complex. The assemblage shifts recorded at this site appear to be consistent with environmental changes triggered by recent climatic warming.     

Methane Hydrate: Killer cause of Earth's greatest mass extinction

The cause for the end Permian mass extinction, the greatest challenge life on Earth faced in its geologic history, is still hotly debated by scientists. The most significant marker of this event is the negative δ¹³C shift and rebound recorded in marine carbonates with a duration ranging from 2000 to 19 000 years depending on localities and sedimentation rates. Leading causes for the event are Siberian trap volcanism and the emission of greenhouse gases with consequent global warming. Measurements of gases vaulted in calcite of end Permian brachiopods and whole rock document significant differences in normal atmospheric equilibrium concentration in gases between modern and end Permian seawaters. The gas composition of the end Permian brachiopod-inclusions reflects dramatically higher seawater carbon dioxide and methane contents leading up to the biotic event. Initial global warming of 8–11 °C sourced by isotopically light carbon dioxide from volcanic emissions triggered the release of isotopically lighter methane from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrates. Consequently, the huge quantities of methane emitted into the atmosphere and the oceans accelerated global warming and marked the negative δ¹³C spike observed in marine carbonates, documenting the onset of the mass extinction period. The rapidity of the methane hydrate emission lasting from several years to thousands of years was tempered by the equally rapid oxidation of the atmospheric and oceanic methane that gradually reduced its warming potential but not before global warming had reached levels lethal to most life on land and in the oceans. Based on measurements of gases trapped in biogenic and abiogenic calcite, the release of methane (of ∼3–14% of total C stored) from permafrost and shelf sediment methane hydrate is deemed the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming (GMAT > 34 °C) and oceanic negative-carbon isotope excursion observed at the end Permian. Global warming triggered by the massive release of carbon dioxide may be catastrophic, but the release of methane from hydrate may be apocalyptic. The end Permian holds an important lesson for humanity regarding the issue it faces today with greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and climate change.     

Range-wide distribution of genetic diversity in the North American tree Juglans cinerea: a product of range shifts, not ecological marginality or recent population decline

The spatial distribution of genetic diversity is a product of recent and historical ecological processes, as well as anthropogenic activities. A current challenge in population and conservation genetics is to disentangle the relative effects of these processes, as a first step in predicting population response to future environmental change. In this investigation, we compare the influence of contemporary population decline, contemporary ecological marginality and postglacial range shifts. Using classical model comparison procedures and Bayesian methods, we have identified postglacial range shift as the clear determinant of genetic diversity, differentiation and bottlenecks in 29 populations of butternut, Juglans cinerea L., a North American outcrossing forest tree. Although butternut has experienced dramatic 20th century decline because of an introduced fungal pathogen, our analysis indicates that recent population decline has had less genetic impact than postglacial recolonization history. Location within the range edge vs. the range core also failed to account for the observed patterns of diversity and differentiation. Our results suggest that the genetic impact of large-scale recent population losses in forest trees should be considered in the light of Pleistocene-era large-scale range shifts that may have had long-term genetic consequences. The data also suggest that the population dynamics and life history of wind-pollinated forest trees may provide a buffer against steep population declines of short duration, a result having important implications for habitat management efforts, ex situ conservation sampling and population viability analysis.     

Time series analysis models for estimation of greenhouse gas emitted by different sectors in Turkey

Due to the increasing global warming in the world, analyzing greenhouse gas emissions is a crucial issue. This study has examined greenhouse gas emissions in Turkey according to energy sector, industrial processes sector, agriculture sector and waste sector. Then, time series analysis models are used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions based on sectors. Models' performances are tested using mean error, mean absolute error and root mean square error. The results show that forecasting models have a good potential to estimate the national greenhouse gas emissions for different sector within a reasonable error. The study results will help organize and estimate the national greenhouse gas emissions inventory.     

Case study on the carbon consumption of two metropolitan cities

Purpose  

The cities merit special attention in global warming since they produce up to 80% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. Even though this has been widely acknowledged, only few papers exist that have studied cities holistically from a demand, i.e., consumption, perspective. The study presents a detailed analysis of the carbon footprint of two metropolitan cities from a consumption perspective. With the analysis of consumer carbon footprints (carbon consumption), the distribution of emissions in the key source categories is presented and compared.     

Influences of infrequent fire, elevation and pre-fire vegetation on the persistence of quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in the Flat Tops area, Colorado, USA

Aim  The recent concern that quaking aspen ( Populus tremuloides Michx.) has been declining in parts of western North America due to fire suppression is largely based on trends during the latter part of the 20th century. The aim of the current study was to compare the extent of aspen in the modern landscape with its extent in the late 19th century prior to fire suppression, and to assess the effects of elevation, late-19th century fires, and pre-fire forest composition on the successional status of aspen.
Location  North-west Colorado, USA.
Methods  We used a georeferenced 1898 map and modern maps to examine trends in aspen dominance since the late 19th century in a 348,586 ha area of White River and Routt National Forests in north-western Colorado. Stand age and structure were sampled in 30 stands.
Results  We found no evidence of overall aspen decline over this period. In fact, aspen distribution has increased in parts of the study area following severe fires in the late 19th century in forests that were previously dominated by conifers. Aspen persistence and increase was especially pronounced at elevations below 3000 m a.s.l. Most 120-year-old post-fire stands that are presently being successionally replaced by conifers were dominated by conifers prior to the last severe fire.
Main conclusions  Human perceptions of ecosystems are often on time scales that are shorter than the cycles of natural variation within those ecosystems. This disparity may lead to an underestimation of the range of natural variability of ecosystem patterns and processes. The appropriate temporal scale of inquiry is necessary for the correct understanding of natural variation in ecosystems.     

黑土稻田CH4与N2O排放及减排措施研究

通过对黑土稻田CH₄和N₂O排放的观测,发现水稻生长季CH₄和N₂O排放量低于全国其它地区稻田CH₄和N₂O排放之间存在互为消长关系(r=-0．513,P<0．05),但在同样施肥水平条件下,间歇灌溉与长期淹灌相比,CH₄排放明显减少而N₂O略有增加,其相对综合温室效应被大大减少且水稻产量未受影响。为此,间歇灌溉可作为减少稻田温室气体排放的水分管理措施。另外,通过对CH₄和N₂O排放的相关微生物过程探讨,揭示产甲烷菌数与CH4排放问呈显著性正相关(R²=0．82,P<0．05),硝化菌数和反硝化菌数与N2O排放有重要关系。     

增温对土壤N2O和CH4排放的影响与微生物机制研究进展

全球变暖已引起人们的广泛关注,大气温室效应气体浓度增加是导致全球变暖的主要因素之一,土壤是温室效应气体的主要来源。反过来,全球变暖对土壤温室气体的排放具有反馈作用。温度升高不仅会影响植物、动物、微生物的生长及其相互作用,还会影响土壤的物质(尤其是氮、碳)循环过程,从而影响土壤温室效应气体的排放。本文主要总结了增温对土壤主要温室气体N₂O和CH₄排放的影响及其微生物机制。总体来看,增温能够促进这两种温室气体的排放,其排放主要与温度对氨氧化细菌(AOB)、反硝化功能基因、甲烷产生菌和甲烷氧化菌的丰度和组成的影响有关。土壤温室气体排放也受到植物的物种特性、养分吸收和群落组成,以及土壤营养元素含量、含水量、pH值等理化性质的影响。未来应更深入地从微生物角度探讨全球变暖对土壤温室气体排放的反馈作用机制,加强不同增温模式对土壤温室气体排放的影响研究,并关注增温与其他环境因子相互作用对土壤温室气体排放的影响等,以期为全球变暖对土壤温室气体排放反馈作用的预测提供理论依据。     

Testing for tree-ring divergence in the European Alps

Evidence for reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature has been reported from multiple forests along the high northern latitudes. This alleged circumpolar phenomenon described the apparent inability of temperature-sensitive tree-ring width and density chronologies to parallel increasing instrumental temperature measurements since the mid-20th century. In addition to such low-frequency trend offset, the inability of formerly temperature-sensitive tree growth to reflect high-frequency temperature signals in a warming world is indicated at some boreal sites, mainly in Alaska, the Yukon and Siberia. Here, we refer to both of these findings as the ‘divergence problem’ (DP), with their causes and scale being debated. If DP is widespread and the result of climatic forcing, the overall reliability of tree-ring-based temperature reconstructions should be questioned. Testing for DP benefits from well-replicated tree-ring and instrumental data spanning from the 19th to the 21st century. Here, we present a network of 124 larch and spruce sites across the European Alpine arc. Tree-ring width chronologies from 40 larch and 24 spruce sites were selected based on their correlation with early (1864–1933) instrumental temperatures to assess their ability of tracking recent (1934–2003) temperature variations. After the tree-ring series of both species were detrended in a manner that allows low-frequency variations to be preserved and scaled against summer temperatures, no unusual late 20th century DP is found. Independent tree-ring width and density evidence for unprecedented late 20th century temperatures with respect to the past millennium further reinforces our results.